Investment Postcards from Cape Town

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Q&A: Mark Mobius on China
2007-11-02 19:31:00
Is the Chinese stock market in a bubble, or are the lofty valuations simply a reflection of the country's superior growth prospects? Who better to ask than Mark Mobius, Franklin Templeton's roving emerging markets expert. Follow the link for the full interview ...
More About: Business , Economy , Stocks , China , Money

Words from the wise for the week that was (Oct 22 to 28, 2007)
2007-10-27 17:30:00
This regular weekly article highlights some memorable / thought-provoking quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviews the week?s market action on the basis of economic statistics and few performance charts.
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Does the Big R (= recession) lie in store for the US?
2007-10-24 09:54:00
There is no economic variable on which there is more uncertainty than on the severity and length of the downturn in the US economy. The question in short is: what are the chances of the US economy going into a recession (i.e. two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) over the next few months?
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Where to now, Mr Dow?
2007-10-22 10:35:00
The realization that the fall-out of the sub-prime situation could have much more dire consequences than originally expected triggered a 367-point decline in the Dow on Friday, representing only the 12th largest points decline on record. The technicals are not looking good and the situation at the coalface of the US economy is not looking any better. I would not be surprised to see profit numbers increasingly undershooting expectations over the next few quarters. I also have difficulty seeing price-earnings multiples expanding off valuation levels not exactly screaming "buy?. This point to lower index levels. I suspect ?Mr Market? has also come to this line of thinking in mapping out Mr Dow?s path.
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Words from the wise for the week that was (Oct 15 to 21, 2007)
2007-10-21 11:02:00
This regular weekly article highlights some memorable / thought-provoking quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviews the week?s market action on the basis of economic statistics and few performance charts.
More About: Business , Economy , Finance , Stocks , Money

Global stock market valuations serve to separate the wheat from the chaff
2007-10-19 16:21:00
I post a global stock market performance round-up on a monthly basis. The dilemma with focusing only on historical returns, however, is that they at best represent a rear-view mirror assessment of future investment potential. A far superior approach is to combine the performance ranking tables (and price charts) with a measure of valuation. And this is where I find Fullermoney?s global price/earnings ratio (PER) and dividend yield (DY) tables particularly useful.
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Greenspan, please shut your mouth!
2007-10-17 12:59:00
I have never been a fan of Easy Al Greenspan and firmly believe that he has caused the US economy irreparable damage. He retired only in January 2006, but is already doing his utmost to explain his way out of his blunders that are now a causing a financial nightmare for his successor. Enter The Bubbleman, Scotto Petterson?s very entertaining music video about this peculiar character.
More About: Business , Economy , Humor , Finance , Money

Global stock markets: pop ?n drop?
2007-10-16 11:12:00
Have global stock markets run into a cul de sac? Bulls with long and short horns alike will probably admit that the rally since August 17, 2007 (i.e. when the US Fed cut the discount window rate) was probably ?too much too fast?. A ?pop ?n drop? pattern seems to be global stock markets? fate, at least for the short term. Time will tell whether the rest of the journey will require coming all the way back from the cul de sac, or whether a longer, but more steady, route can be found.
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Words from the wise for the week that was (Oct 8 to 14, 2007)
2007-10-14 11:42:00
This regular weekly article highlights some memorable / thought-provoking quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviews the week?s market action on the basis of economic statistics and few performance charts.
More About: Business , Economy , Finance , Stocks , Money

Fear starts gripping UK housing market
2007-10-12 15:22:00
As stated before, the unwinding of the US housing situation has some way to go before the system rids itself fully of all the excesses accumulated during the multi-year upswing. But what about the UK residential property market? The body of evidence points to a decidedly bearish situation beginning to unfold.
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Lack of stock market breadth flashes red light
2007-10-11 14:35:00
What you see may not be what you get as far as the recent surge in US stocks goes. Irrespective of various stock market indices hitting new highs, the so-called market internals remain weak. This refers to the lack of market breadth and low volume being causes for concern as these factors cast doubt over the sustainability of the rally.
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The twelve days of crisis
2007-10-09 15:05:00
Isn't it quite amazing how, with the right spin, even the grimmest of situations usually offer some entertainment value? The credit squeeze was no exception. Read this delightful poem by Tim Price of PFP Wealth Management for a good laugh.
More About: Economy , Humor , Finance , Money , Investment

Words from the wise for the week that was (Oct 1 to 7, 2007)
2007-10-07 09:33:00
This regular weekly article highlights some memorable / thought-provoking quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviews the week?s market action on the basis of a few performance charts.
More About: Business , Economy , Finance , Stocks , Money

Let?s meet up in Big Apple or New Orleans
2007-10-06 19:03:00
I will be visiting New York City on October 19 and 20, 2007 and New Orleans from October 21 to 24. There are still a few gaps on my itinerary for those wishing to discuss global financial markets, financial blogging or, for that matter, any money-making ideas.
More About: Travel , Apple , Investment , Meet

We are the champions ?
2007-10-05 10:14:00
When I started writing this blog earlier this year, I made a deliberate decision to post only investment articles of an international nature as opposed to South Africa n (i.e. home-based) stories. And over the past five months I have slavishly abided by my self-imposed rule. But no longer. The rule is about to be broken, albeit ...
More About: Humor , Champions , Cham , Hampi

Are global stock markets on steroids? (performance round-up ? Sept 30, 2007
2007-10-04 18:00:00
A credit squeeze ? financial market turmoil ? declining stock markets ? recessionary threats ... A fait accompli, or so many market participants ?logically? reasoned at crunch time in July / August. Ah, but have things turned out so differently, at least for the moment? ?Look what they?ve done to my song, ma ? and they turned it upside down ?,? I can hear Melanie?s voice intoning the sad lyrics. Say hello to ?inflate or die?, the era of easy monetary policy piloted by ?
More About: Business , Economy , Finance , Stocks , Performance

Your house as seen by ?
2007-10-04 10:30:00
Your house may not necessarily be what it seems to you. Your lender, potential buyer, appraiser or tax assessor may have very different views ?
More About: Humor , House , Investment , Housing

Words from the wise for the week that was (Sept 24 ? 30, 2007)
2007-09-30 10:00:00
This regular weekly article highlights some memorable / thought-provoking quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviews the week?s market action on the basis of a few performance charts.
More About: Business , Economy , Finance , Stocks , Money

Words from the wise for the week that was (Sept 17 - 23, 2007)
2007-09-23 11:33:00
This regular weekly article highlights some memorable quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviews the week?s market action on the basis of a few performance charts.
More About: Business , Economy , Finance , Stocks , Money

Gold bullion showing Dow a clean pair of heels
2007-09-19 12:50:00
My bullish stance on gold is old hat by now, but that does not take anything away from my excitement to keep riding this profitable play. For my money the relative outperformance of gold versus the Dow Jones Industrial Index (and most mature-market equities) is a primary trend that is not about to be reversed in a hurry. Place your bets and let your profits run.
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US economy - R or no R?
2007-09-17 14:22:00
One of the most perplexing and widely-debated financial issues is whether the US economy will experience the dreaded R (= recession) in the current cycle. This article features a number of interesting snippets to cast some light on the issue.
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Words from the wise for the week that was (September 2 to 9, 2007)
2007-09-16 12:43:00
This regular weekly article highlights some memorable quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviews the week?s market action on the basis of a few performance charts.
More About: Business , Economy , Finance , Stocks , Money

Catching up with fellow market aficionados
2007-09-16 08:44:00
I will be visiting Ljubljana (Slovenia), Prague (Czech Republic) and Geneva (Switzerland) during the course of this week. If you happen to be in these areas and want to discuss money-making opportunities and share a cup of coffee (or glass of wine), please contact me. There are still a few gaps on the itinerary for those wishing to share some ideas on global financial markets, Central and Eastern European real estate, financial blogging or the breeding habits of fish in the Adriatic Sea (lol!). Kin Hubbard said: ?It is pretty hard to tell what does bring happiness; poverty and wealth have both failed.? Is traveling and meeting up with friends perhaps what it is all about?
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Gold: forwards and upwards
2007-09-14 09:24:00
Just when investors started doubting the safe-haven status of gold at the time of the sub-prime mortgage debacle putting pressure on most financial markets, the yellow metal came to life and staged a spectacular $56 rally. The fundamental and technical gold story looks decidedly positive. Any short-term correction should therefore be viewed as a buying opportunity. This may come in the form of investors once again becoming preoccupied with raising liquidity as seen in July, but don?t let that scare you off ? stay focused on the glitter.
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Bear Stearns? reading list for interns
2007-09-12 16:02:00
This short posting lists the prescribed investment books for Bear Stearns interns.
More About: Business , Economy , Reading , Finance , Stocks

Whiplashing of Wall Street ? where to now?
2007-09-10 13:02:00
Although investors are relieved by the recovery in global stock markets since August 17, they are wondering what to do next. Should they increase or curtail risk in their portfolios? As I see it, factoring in a prudent analysis of the possible unfolding of events, it might be more sensible to adopt a defensive approach to risk and err on the side of caution.
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Words from the wise for the week that was (September 1 to 7, 2007)
2007-09-09 13:54:00
This regular weekly article highlights some memorable quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviews the week?s market action on the basis of a few performance charts.
More About: Business , Economy , Finance , Stocks , Investment

Short-Term Capital Mismanagement: letter to investors
2007-09-08 15:27:00
A hilarious spoof in the form of a letter to investors in hedge fund operation, Short-Term Capital Mismanagement LLP.
More About: Business , Humor , Finance , Money , Investment

Here?s my travel schedule - let?s meet up
2007-09-07 22:52:00
I often receive enquiries from blog subscribers and readers about my travel schedule, with the aim of perhaps hooking up for a chat in some convenient corner of the world. I do travel abroad quite often and would be very keen to connect with friends wishing to discuss investments and perhaps share a glass of wine somewhere on foreign soil. My travel schedule for the next few months is as follows ....
More About: Travel , Investment , Schedule , Meet , My Travel

Global stock market performance round-up (August 31, 2007)
2007-09-06 06:59:00
Global stock markets regained much of their credit squeeze losses during the second half of August 2007 to end the month only in slightly negative territory. Although the month as a whole did not pan out too badly, the period was characterized by a roller-coaster ride and calm only started to return to markets after Bernanke came to the rescue with a US discount rate cut on August 17. Although the current bounce may have more legs, I am not convinced that we are out of the woods yet. Caution remains if getting adequate sleep is a consideration.
More About: Business , Economy , Finance , Stocks , Performance