Investment Postcards from Cape TownInvestment Postcards from Cape TownPrieur du Plessis's international investment blog Articles
Robert Shiller: ?We have a housing crisis developing?
2007-09-05 10:32:00 I have often written and talked about the US housing situation being the Achilles heel of the US economic outlook. This article features a video clip of an interview with Prof Robert Shiller, economist of Yale University and of Case-Shiller Home Price Index fame, warning of a significant US recession risk if house prices drop more. As stated before, the unwinding of the US housing situation has some way to go before the system rids itself fully of all the excesses accumulated during the multi-year upswing. More About: Business , Economy , Money , Investment , Markets
Smart money bets on surging gold price
2007-09-04 11:48:00 A fascinating research study on the outlook for gold bullion has just landed on my desk. The study identifies a massive build-up of call options in the October and December Comex gold contracts, similar to November 2005 prior to the gold price surging by more than 50%. One can probably do a lot worse in these rather testing times than follow the smart money. More About: Business , Economy , Finance , Money , Investment
Words from the wise for the week that was (August 25 to 31, 2007)
2007-09-02 16:07:00 This regular weekly article highlights some memorable quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviews the week?s market action on the basis of a few performance charts. More About: Business , Economy , Finance , Stocks , Money
What does September hold for the Dow?
2007-08-31 16:26:00 The chart below, courtesy of Chart of the Day, illustrates the Dow Jones Industrial Index’s average performance for each calendar month since 1950 (blue bars) and 1980 (gray bars) respectively. While the strongest upward movement in stocks has historically occurred during the November to January period, September has proven to be the most difficult month for stocks. It is interesting ... More About: Stocks , Money , Investment , Wall Street , Markets
Will a Fed rate-cutting program bail out Wall Street?
2007-08-29 11:25:00 Given the severity of the credit squeeze and the ramifications for the US economy, a number of US rate cuts in quick succession cannot be ruled out. The prospects of lower rates calmed some nerves and boosted equities last week, but the real question is what typically happens to prices subsequent to the start of a Fed rate-cutting program. More About: Business , Economy , Finance , Stocks , Money
Temporary stock market bounce or sustainable rally?
2007-08-27 10:43:00 Sarah Connor?s lyrics ?Get up and move, Don?t make me act a fool, Just bounce? come to mind when reviewing the performance of financial markets since the Fed?s emergency discount rate cut on August 17. The invariable question is to what extent the actions of the Fed and other central banks have calmed jittery financial markets. ... More About: Business , Economy , Finance , Stocks , Money
Words from the wise for the week that was (August 18 to 24, 2007)
2007-08-26 20:42:00 I spend a very large amount of time reading investment-related material. In order to share some of the more interesting snippets with readers, I have decided to add a new section to the blog ? Words from the Wise ? where I will regularly publish a number of quotations from market commentators. The content will ... More About: Business , Economy , Finance , Stocks , Money
Why the Fed?s rate cut did not come as a surprise
2007-08-17 19:43:00 Since hitting a peak on July 16, the meltdown in global stock markets has taken place with lightning speed. Given the fact that more than 10% has already been wiped off investors? scoreboards, the question invariably is how low can we go. Has the Fed come to the rescue of markets with today's cut of the discount window rate from 6.25% to 5.75%? More About: Business , Economy , Finance , Stocks , Money
Crashing stock markets ? Hoofy & Boo causing a laugh
2007-08-16 16:21:00 The video clip of Jim Cramer ranting and raving about the credit squeeze stirred up huge interest in the financial world. And, true to the fast-moving pace of events, Hoofy the Bull and Boo the Bear did not waste any time hooking up to the action and giving meaning to the term ?market meltdown?. I hope ... More About: Business , Economy , Humor , Finance , Money
Gold ? more than a safe-haven play
2007-08-14 14:00:00 What?s up with gold? The dollar gold price would appear to be in pause mode of late, but somewhat deeper analysis shows a few interesting aspects. On August 9 the bullion price was slaughtered by $12 together with an avalanche of selling across just about all financial markets, with the exception of government bonds. Whether is ... More About: Business , Economy , Finance , Stocks , Money
The lighter side of the US housing debacle
2007-08-11 10:45:00 The US housing situation is turning out to be a nightmare of much worse proportions than was generally expected not so long ago. And, to reemphasize my viewpoint, it is still rather difficult to detect even the faintest ray of light at the end of the proverbial tunnel. But with all painful situations there is usually ... More About: Business , Economy , Humor , Finance , Money
Where to hide from jittery financial markets
2007-08-08 16:22:00 It was Warren Buffett who remarked: ?It?s only when the tide goes out that you learn who?s been swimming naked?. Isn?t this thoroughly applicable to the current situation where investors are beginning to scurry to find hiding places? The stock market fall-out could wreak havoc with equity portfolios, but it is comforting to know that even in these uncertain times some markets offer proper diversification characteristics and, importantly, in some cases even the prospect of positive returns. More About: Business , Economy , Finance , Stocks , Money
101 Guide to the CDO Rating Process
2007-08-06 20:37:00 Ever wondered about the rating process involved in transforming sub-prime mortgages into AAA collateralized debt obligations (CDOs)? Here is the 101 guide. More About: Business , Economy , Humor , Finance , Money
Stock markets: white knuckles and shaky knees
2007-08-05 21:21:00 As nervousness among investors mount in the wake of the gyrations of financial markets, the key question remains whether something more serious than a normal (and overdue) mid-cycle correction is starting to manifest itself. More About: Business , Economy , Finance , Stocks , Money
Cramer: ?Bernanke, wake up?
2007-08-04 20:08:00 Mad Money host Jim Cramer made a passionate, and quite amazing, plea to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on CNBC yesterday. He urged Bernanke to cut interest rates and, in turn, help the market and the people who were losing their jobs on Wall Street. This is video footage at its alarming best: entertaining and controversial, ... More About: Economy , Finance , Investment , Markets
Follow the movies, and make a mint on stock markets
2007-08-03 17:39:00 Bear markets, and their inevitable casualties, could undoubtedly produce all the soppy ingredients for ready-made movie scripts, and possibly spawn a few Hollywood bestsellers. But is there a direct link between the quantum of horror movies being produced and the incidence of bear markets? Or, on the other side of the pendulum, the number of feel-good movies ... More About: Movies , Economy , Humor , Finance , Stocks
Global stock market performance round-up (July 31, 2007)
2007-08-02 22:26:00 What you see may not be what you get, especially when analyzing historical stock market performance. One would be excused for thinking that global stock markets were on an uninterrupted upward path when considering their good gains in US dollar for the three months ended July 31, 2007. But that is only part of the ... More About: Economy , Finance , Stocks , Performance , Money
The value of a drink ?
2007-07-31 15:55:00 This is not a financial story, but there is at least anecdotal evidence of a strong link between nervous stock markets and the excessive consumption of alcohol. I thought I would share this with you to provide some light relief in the otherwise serious world of finance. “Sometimes when I reflect back on all the wine ... More About: Humor , Drink
Dow?s 520 point two-day loss: correction or calamity?
2007-07-29 12:35:00 ?Down, down, deeper and down?. So goes the chorus of a Status Quo song, but it is eerily starting to sound like the stock market?s anthem. When writing an article on Thursday?s 312 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Index I did not quite contemplate market circumstances requiring a sequel so soon thereafter. But alas, Thursday?s ... More About: Economy , Finance , Stocks , Money , Investment
How serious is a 312 point market decline?
2007-07-27 09:56:00 On the face of it yesterday’s drop of 312 points (-2.3%) in the Dow Jones Industrial Index is scary stuff. The chart below tells the sorry tale. But just how serious is this decline from a historical perspective? Since the start of the Dow in 1896 we have seen a drop of more than 312 points on 15 occasions. ... More About: Economy , Finance , Stocks , Money , Market
Gold: rays of glitter in a murky environment
2007-07-25 14:48:00 Just when everybody thought gold bullion was down and out and embarking on a downward spiral, the shine returned. Even erstwhile gold bug Richard Russell started favoring the Dow stocks over the yellow metal, but more about that later. Since my last, somewhat upbeat, article on gold bullion and gold stocks about five weeks ago they have ... More About: Economy , Environment , Finance , Stocks , Money
Slovenia: the best-kept secret of Central Europe
2007-07-17 16:32:00 This article is quite different from my normal stories as it deals with a country rather than with a specific financial market or asset class. But please allow me the freedom to share this information with you as Slovenia is such a delightful country and also presents some unique investment opportunities for the international entrepreneur. Enjoy the read. ?? another ... More About: Europe , Travel , Investment , Secret , Central Europe
US equities: what is risk premium telling us?
2007-07-12 13:26:00 It is often stated that investors have become increasingly less risk averse over the past few years. This is true for many asset classes as evidenced by narrowing credit spreads and a number of sentiment indicators. However, this is not necessarily the case with US equities, especially not when considering the valuation of equities relative ... More About: Economy , Finance , Stocks , Money , Investment
Shift happens - a potpourri of amazing stats
2007-07-09 18:00:00 The video clip below is a cocktail of mind-boggling statistics. As John Mauldin remarked: “I think that we underestimate the accelerating pace of change we are going to see in the next 15 to 20 years. We will see more change in the coming decade than we saw all of last century. Think back just 20 years ... More About: Economy , Finance , Money , Investment , Markets
Global stock market performance round-up (June 30, 2007)
2007-07-04 22:10:00 Can money trees in fact grow to heaven? It is certainly beginning to look that way when considering global stock market returns. World stock markets again delivered good returns in US dollar for the quarter ended 30 June 2007. The best performance came from the Peru Composite Index with an eye-popping capital appreciation of 31.8%, ... More About: Finance , Stocks , Performance , Money , Stock Market
Valuation of US equities - back to basics
2007-07-03 06:57:00 The most nagging question for investors in equities is what return they can expect from their investment. For most people it?s as simple as that, unless of course you want to bring risk and some other Greek (quant) variables into the equation. It is stating the obvious that an investor?s total return is made up ... More About: Finance , Stocks , Money , Investment , Markets
Top ten list of hedge fund manager quotes
2007-06-30 17:32:00 While some sorry hedge fund tales abound, the following provides an entertaining “top ten” list of hedge fund manager quotes (some perhaps apocryphal), courtesy of Hermes, a London-based fund manager. 10. “If we don’t charge 2 and 20, no one will take us seriously.” 9. “We are 75% cash because we cannot find sufficient investments.” 8. “We ... More About: Finance , Stocks , Money , Investment , Markets
Knights of the round table: mapping out the markets (June 2007)
2007-06-28 09:21:00 In the true ancient fashion of King Arthur?s Knights of the Round Table, we have also gathered men of the highest order, not of chivalry but of investment expertise, at our virtual Round Table. In a world first, and a coup of note, four of the investment industry?s leading lights have gathered to debate and ... More About: Economy , Finance , Stocks , Money , Investment
FORTHCOMING EVENT - Knights of the Round Table: mapping out the markets
2007-06-25 14:34:00 In the true ancient fashion of King Arthur?s Knights of the Round Table, I have also gathered men of the highest order, not of chivalry but of investment expertise, at my virtual Round Table. In a world first, and a coup of note, four of the investment industry?s leading lights have gathered to debate and ... More About: Economy , Event , Finance , Stocks , Money
Gold stocks could add shine to your portfolio
More articles from this author:2007-06-18 10:41:00 Gold bullion is like children ? unpredictable. You never know with what inconsistent action the yellow metal is going to catch you next, making it notoriously difficult to predict the short-term price movements. Many traders have to their detriment seen their pockets being emptied as a result of unwelcome margin calls over the years. In ... More About: Economy , Finance , Stocks , Money , Portfolio 1, 2, 3, 4 |
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