Fallond Trade History

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Limited 'Net acccess until November 23rd
2007-11-09 18:10:00
New home - new dilemmas. Broadband access won't be available until November 23rd at the latest. This likely means no blog update for this weekend. The same goes for the main website. Subscribers will get an email commentary on the market action and memberships will be extended for the period of the downtime. Fallond
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Market Report
2007-11-08 17:31:00
Bulls and bears are in a bit of a tussle, but given this fight is occurring in the low end of yesterday's range the advantage would lie with the bears. The weekly close will be of a significant importance for the averages. For the Nasdaq there is still a good deal of support to look too: But bears will point to the extended weakness in the semiconductors. There is very little in the way of support until July lows are tested - ugly.... Large caps are in the process of making an important test of 40-week MA support. A decisive volume break of this average would set up a test of the August lows and a potential double top confirmation. But, this is still some time away: Small caps are in bigger trouble having cut through their 40-week MA. Only August lows remain to save the Russell 2000. Lower highs and lower lows are on the cards: Fallond
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Up...Down...Up...Down
2007-11-07 16:56:00
The blog posts will be a little slow for the next few days as I have relocated into a new abode and need to get set up on wireless/broadband. The markets are trading in a scrappy up and down, mixed with rising volatility. Support from mid-October lows still holds true for many indices, but overhead supply is never far from any strong day the market logs. There is some interesting bullish action from some of my newsletter stock picks - which would at least indicate some pockets of strength: Mastercard (MA) for one: Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is another: Maybe today is a day for buying? Fallond

Loadsa money
2007-11-06 16:15:00
Great link from Maoxian, and one for the Shiller/Pring crowd. Peterochina's valued more than the entire Russian Stockmarket. Needless to say, it has a weekly chart riddled with exhaustion gaps - all part of one big blow off top. Fallond
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Market Report
2007-11-05 23:14:00
November 5th: The day could have been worse for bulls, but the picture which existed Friday remained stable on Monday. The 20-day MAs remained as support for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. although the S&P drifted a little off its 50-day MA. Friday's action created potential double bottoms for the Dow, S&P and Russell 2000, although it would have been better to have seen upside follow through on Monday, bulls can take some heart that losses didn't expand. Tuesday will probably open weak - but let futures be ones guide. Fallond
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Quickie: Interactive Brokers (IBKR)
2007-11-05 11:57:00
With markets in a state of flux as marked by recent (and increasing) volatility now can be a good time to step back and take a look at other strategies to work your money in the market. Trader's narrative wrote a nice piece on Interact ive Brokers (IBKR). Babak's piece has identified a great dollar-cost-average candidate. The head-and-shoulders pattern he illustrated may/may not come to fruition, but the stock is forming a solid looking base - a great time to drip invest in the stock. The advantage of the dollar-cost-average approach is that most of your money stays in cash, so timing a bottom becomes less of a concern, and once the market (and the stock) finds strength one can look to increase the investment/average up. In this case, one would look for confirmation on a break of the head-and-shoulder neckline with a second chance provided on the break of the IPO price. Fallond Traders Narrative

Sponsored Review: Condor Options
2007-11-03 23:37:00
Condor Options is a nicely done site where the focus is trading "Iron Condors". Their aim is to provide a single trade every month which generates a 10% return on your investment. A simple goal. It is a subscription based service, charging $139 a month with a 30-day money back guarantee. Iron Condor only deals in options trading. The performance of the site's picks since May have been excellent with only two reported losses out of thirteen for the strategy (although the 37% loss may have been a killer to a small account): The site also has a blog which features about two posts a week: In their promotional material, their raison d'etre is Look, we know there are already a billion trading newsletters out there. So why start yet another one? Because all the newsletters and trading services we’ve come across rely on their stock-picking, fundamental analysis, or other directional skills to make trades. There’s nothing wrong with that, but we know that it’s possible to ...
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Stockcharts.com Weekly review
2007-11-03 21:31:00
After last week's volatile session what had the stockcharters to say about it? It should be noted, only a sample of the works of the following posters is presented, by following the appropriate link one can get further details on their research and opinion. Dr. Joe heads with his week in summary: Based on historical trends, Dr. Joe is looking for a Dow rally: While seeing a top too? Although his S&P retail chart is interesting - but one should ignore the over dependence on momentum indicators (all of which the same thing - you only need one Joe!) The Ted lines are seeing support for the Nasdaq 100 (and Nasdaq - just): and lo-and-behold, the semiconductors too: Maurice Walker commented on the candlestick hammers: 11/2 Commentary: Investors didn't know what to do with more optimistic economic data that was reported today, as the nonfarm payrolls increased by 166,000 jobs in October. After a choppy day of back and forth action, prices ultimately settled closing modestly...
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Market Report
2007-11-01 23:23:00
I am still a head full of mucus but the last two days have been too hectic to not comment. Bulls are in trouble. Not only have Tech [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] breakouts reversed, but have done so on heavier volume - leaving large bull traps in the wake of the Fed decision. Both of these indices generated whipsaw signals in their MACD trigger lines - another mechanism which will have trapped bulls on the (former) Fed breakout. The warning signs were clear in the underperforming semiconductor index, and it was somewhat ironic to see this index relatively unscathed by the broad sell off. What is of greater concern for bulls is the action in the large caps [Dow and S&P]. Both left large bearish (and somewhat complicated) "falling three method" continuation patterns. The Dow cleaved through its 50-day MA and it's almost a turkey shoot to reach its 200-day MA. Adding insult to injury, nearly every heavy volume day since the start of October has been a distribution day and toda...
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Down and Out with a Cold
2007-10-31 22:07:00
About to crawl into bed for an early night as a head cold has knocked me out. I will look to put some charts up on Friday to detail the market reaction to the Fed. One volatile day! Fallond
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Market Review
2007-10-30 22:59:00
Minor losses on mixed volume; there was a registered distribution day for the NASDAQ, but other indices eased on light volume into the second day of the Fed meeting. But even the NASDAQ distribution day is likely to be overshadowed by whatever reaction comes from the Fed rate decision. Two indices to watch are the semiconductors - which are deep in trouble: and Transports - which are trading a fine line of 50-day MA support, and well off confirming Dow highs: Fallond
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TechTarget (TTGT)
2007-10-29 23:29:00
TechTarget (TTGT) is an interesting stock as the 2007 IPO drifted from its post launch gains, down to the $11s before reversing its losses and breaking $15.80 resistance. It featured to newsletter subscribers in September as it was shaping its right-hand-base. The stock found enough momentum to take it to $18.69 before it entered its current October consolidation, generating a positive back test of $15.80. Technicals are nicely bullish with a MACD trigger line well placed to signal a "BUY" while knocking around well above the bullish zero line. Earnings are scheduled for November 7th and with no overhead resistance a positive surprise could send this flying. Fallond

Market Report
2007-10-29 23:14:00
All eyes are on the Fed this week. Although Monday's action put in a decent gain for the markets, the gains were unable to make much directional headway. The only index to buck the trend was the semiconductor index as it finally logged a positive after lagging the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 for all of last week. The NASDAQ 100 remained contained by 2,205 resistance - so the Fed decision will have a big impact on what happens to this index. The Russell 2000 reversed off its 20-day MA, but it didn't come across as a major test of resistance. Large caps [Dow and S&P] were unchanged around their 20-day MAs. The other point of note was the reversal back below the 5-day EMA for the Nasdaq Percentage of Stocks above their 50-day MA ($NAA50R). This indicator frequently suffers from whipsaw around this moving average so a positive Fed decision could see this moving average breached once more. Fallond
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Stockcharts.com Weekly review
2007-10-27 22:54:00
Bulls kept things going as well as could have been expected given the weak action in the semiconductors. What had the Stockcharters to say about it? Dr. Joe kicked off with his weekly summary: Joe is watching for a potential double bottom for stochastics in the Dow: Maurice Walker has reason for optimism: In the valley where I live there was a man named Gordon Elwood, but all the kids nicknamed him Stan-the-Can-Man. The elderly Elwood rode his broken down old bicycle up and down the streets, digging cans out of dumpsters to recycle for cash. Most people were repulsed by his appearance and assumed he was homeless. He was shabbily dressed and wore second-hand tattered clothes. He used a bungee cord as a belt to hold up his pants. Elwood's bedraggled appearance was a pathetic thing to behold, but mostly Elwood was ignored. He drank out dated milk, eating old bread, and he accepted food hand outs from the Salvation Army. He showed up on holidays at charitable organizations to ea...
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Blogs of 2006
2007-01-24 23:10:02
If someone decides to round up of the lists for "best financial blogs" which are doing the rounds at the moment then that should be worth a cookie. Here are my faves: All rounder: TraderMike has a little bit of everything, but not too much of one thing. Links/Market Commentary/Stock watch lists. Can't fault him. Honorable mention to TheKirkReport and his Festivus of links. Finger on the pulse:
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January 2006 - December 2006: How did my picks perform?
2007-01-24 23:10:02
If looking at a straight performance measure for stocks picked in January 2006 and sold at the end of December it was not a good year for my Fallondpicks.com stocks. However, the caveat here was that no stop prices were used. So lets get the bad news out of the way with first. My Subscriber picks (yes - the ones which one pays for!) had an average return of -7% for the year with 28% of the 42
More About: December 2006 , Pick , Form

Stockcharts.com: Weekly review
2007-01-24 23:10:02
The last couple weeks of holiday trading haven't seen too much change in the markets. Things are unlikely to spice up until the week after next as markets will be closed for almost half of next week. Not surprsingly, there wasn't many new charts to showcase given the lack of change. Joe Reed had commented: *** Dec '06 - Here's what's happening now *** THIRD QUARTER 'EARNINGS' came in Extremely
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Trade Ideas: MIC, TOL, KEP, WPZ, NOC, WBS, EDU, NRG
2007-01-24 23:10:02
Although I didn't post a time scale for Friday's buying on the Trade Idea s scan (13 minutes) it was little changed to today at 15 minutes for 8 stocks. None of this is a surprise in light of Monday's selling but the real question will be how Nov-Jan support hold in the face of increasing supply? Of the 8 stocks, two broke the 20 appearance barrier: Webster Financial (WBS) and New Oriental (EDU)

Trade Ideas: MGG
2007-01-24 23:10:02
The general market dive in the afternoon will likely see a "dead-cat-bounce", but over the next few weeks a test of the various indices 200-day MAs looks most probable. The Trade Idea s scan died when the selling began; although it wasn't exactly firing on all cylinders - 8 picks covered a time span of 85 minutes. A couple of picks made it over the 20 appearance mark: Korea Electric Power Corp (

Trade Ideas: MA
2007-01-24 23:10:02
The wide range bars from yesterday disguised the true extent of Thursday's buying. It was another day of heavy volume (but below that of yesterday). The Trade Idea s scan was a little slow for the day that it was with 8 picks covering a time span of 16 minutes. Clearing the 20 appearance barrier were Mastercard (MA) and Kroger (KR) at 27 and 24 appearances a piece. Mastercard (MA) has

Trade Ideas: THI
2007-01-24 23:10:02
Markets are taking a spill on the jobs data, hitting small cap stocks the hardest. The Trade Idea s scan was also slow to pull up stock ideas; 8 picks covered a time span of 1 hour. At least on the frequency front there was a clear leader in Tim Horton's Inc (THI) at 41 appearances over the day. The stock is recovering from an earlier break from a rising wedge. Expect some weakness at $30.89

Weekend Commentary from Fallondpicks.com
2007-01-24 23:10:02
The long weekend likely contributed to the lower volume traded on Friday, but all-in-all it was a good week for the bulls. Solid breakouts in the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, Dow, and S&P have reinstated the bull market and put some pressure on the weak technical pictures supporting these indices. Chief of which were the across the board MACD bearish divergences - now pressurized by NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100
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Trade Ideas: UNP
2007-01-24 23:10:02
A quiet day for the markets saw the Trade Idea s scan drift out to 50 minutes for 8 picks. Union Pacific (UNP) screamed ahead with 53 appearances on the Trade Ideas scan day after breaking from a declining wedge. Larger resistance lurks at $97.49 with a projected target of $117.49. Stops on a loss of $90. Union Pacific Corporation, through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company,

KIVA new loan
2007-01-24 23:10:02
The latest loan comes courtesy of A. Ross, IL. If you haven't got a KIVA account now is a great time to get the year off to a good start. If you would like a KIVA loan made to a project of your choice and receive my newsletter, subscribe to my service and I will allocate $25 of your annual membership payment to a project of your choice. An "upgraded cow" is an interesting prospect... KIVA
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Trade Ideas: MBT
2007-01-24 23:10:02
The market returned some of its recent gains, but there was a marked improvement in the rate of buying; the Trade Idea s scan increased the timing of the 8 picks to 1 minute, although there still wasn't a lot of strength in individual stocks. Mobile Telesystems OJSC (MBT) broke the 20 appearance barrier to register 25 hits on the day. Mobile Telesystems OJSC (MBT) trades inside a rising channel.

Trade Ideas: KMP
2007-01-24 23:10:02
Tech and small caps are taking it on the chin as large caps hold on. The Trade Idea s scan was a little slower with 8 picks covering a time span of 12 minutes. Within that time frame only one stock broke the 20 appearance barrier: Kinder Morgan Energy (KMP) at 25 hits, but earlier in the day and at 35 hits was Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) - a stock I have been holding for 5 years. Kinder Morgan

Datawink
2007-01-24 23:10:02
This is a handy tool which matches current trading patterns with historical patterns for the stock; from this you can see the outcome of these matches. I put in today's stock, KMP, which made the following 1-month matches: and predicted the following 1-month outcomes: The charts are ordered from greatest match to least match from left-right. It would be good to get a measure of the
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Stockcharts.com: Weekly review
2007-01-24 23:10:02
I will lead off with Richard Lehman's work. He said it nicely here: 1/20 -- In a rare occurrence, EVERY major index here (Dow, Naz, QQQQ, RUT and SPX) all stopped DEAD ON the upper lines of their new short term downtrends. That amount of unison is amazing (a little channel magic, maestro?). Unless Monday is a solidly positive opening, they will all likely back off and head lower again within
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Trade Ideas: KAI, BAP, PFN, CTV, DPL, MMA, EZA, CAM
2007-01-24 23:10:02
Barring a late day collapse it was significantly better day for the markets. The Trade Idea s scan ducked under 10 minutes in selecting 8 stocks, requiring 8 minutes - not quite "super bull" but better than recent buying. Two picks: Commscope (CTV) and Kadant (KAI), broke the 20 appearance mark at 25 and 30 hits apiece. It was interesting to see stocks like Commscope (CTV), Kadant (KAI),

Stockcharts.com: Weekly review
2007-01-24 23:10:02
A relatively quiet week for the Stock charters - an unusual lack of interest in the technical breakouts of Tech indices/Qs. Ted Burge opened with an interesting chart on United States Oil Fund (USO). He has marked support at $43.55 and there was a nice bullish harami at support. Ted has a website: www.tic-tac-dough.com , which has further information. Although Jack Chan sees little love:
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