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Stock Market Commentary: Backtest Complete?
2009-05-20 22:53:00 The reaction move back to the highs may have completed following the late day selling and the higher volume. The Nasdaq high of 1,767 with its bearish inverse hammer was only 6 points away from the early May high of 1,773. The Dow flashed a similar bearish inverse hammer but did so with marked weakness in on-balance-volume; this was more bearish.The inverse hammer in the SOX made a picture perfect touch of resistance from former trendline support.The S&P was one of the first to mark a 'sell' trigger in on-balance-volume and it looks like this weakness is going to take the index down to its 20-day MA at the very least. Tomorrow could be a bad one....Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too. Fallond Stock Picks More About: Commentary , Stock Market , Complete
Stock Market Commentary: Semiconductors Have The Best Of It
2009-05-19 23:26:00 In what was a mixed day for the averages; slightly up for the Tech averages, slightly down for Large Cap indices. The only index to emerge with any credit was the semiconductors. In what was a stall-out at the 20-day MA yesterday gave way to a respectable breakthough today.Even with respect to relative strength, the semiconductor index started to outperform the Nasdaq 100 once more. The question is what form will this rally take? The ascent from March has broken but a new trending opportunity exists using the May low as part of a new trend from the March low. The 50-day MA becomes the best place for a trailing stop. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too. Fallond Stock Picks More About: Commentary , Stock Market
Market Sentiment: NASDAQ support break. NYSE holds support
2009-05-19 11:19:00 The McCellan Oscillators for the Nasdaq and NYSE told two stories. The first was the confirmed break and 'sell' trigger for the Nasdaq.The same 'sell' was issued in the NYSE McClellan Oscillator but this was not confirmed with a trendline break in the NYSE. Trail those stops. So even as broad markets rally there is still an underlying shift from speculative technology stocks to the more staid Large Caps. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too. Fallond Stock Picks More About: Break , Support , Sentiment
Stock Market Commentary: Relief Rally in Effect
2009-05-18 23:18:00 Major market gains and breaks through important moving averages had all the look of a great day for the indices but volume was very light relative to the gains. The Nasdaq was able to make it past its 20-day and 200-day MA but it remains questionable as to whether it can go on to make new highs given its weak relative performance to Large Caps. The Dow was at least able to find support at the 20-day MA and has room to maneuver to its 200-day MA. With the sector rotation to safety from speculative indices it could go on to make new highs. The SOX was unfortunate in it broke through the 200-day MA but stalled at the 20-day MA.I'm not optimistic on this rally lasting but it has been fooling everyone for a good month now and could continue to surprise. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too. Fallond Stock Picks More About: Commentary , Stock Market , Rally
Weekly Stock Charts review from Stockcharts.com Publishers
2009-05-18 12:43:00 Markets took their turn for the worse after weeks of waiting. How will it all end? Tomas Leszczynski of Santoren Wealth Management made a great call with arc resistance: Projected target for a pullback and the chance to create a reversal head-and-shoulder pattern at November reaction lows. Presumably broad bands provide less resistance than tight bands (as was the case in June 2008). Measured move (with some wiggle room) played out on the Nasdaq?Potential for a painful fall in the QQQQs:Peter of CobrasMarketView is showing neutral short term signals but a swathe of bearish intermediate time frame signals. SPYs primed for a measured move down?Confirmed breadth weakness:Bear market reversal soon to be confirmed on weekly?'Sell' signal also in the ratio of consumer discretionary to staples:Richard Crockett of Stock Tiger is showing a Gold Miner 'sell' on the Renko chart:Dow monthly tag of 200-day EMA resistance:Simple demarcation:Anthony Caldaro of Elliot Wave Lives on is showing a ... More About: Publishers , Review , Charts , Weekly
Weekly Market Commentary: Resistance Holds
2009-05-16 23:20:00 The week finished lower as resistance held for the Nasdaq (2004 reaction lows)Russell 2000 (2004 reaction lows)and Nasdaq 100 (2006 reaction lows)Breadth indicators reversed to their first down week in eight weeks; see Nasdaq Bullish Percents:Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MAOr the Summation Index:The same was true for S&P breadth. All-in-all we have a clear weekly 'sell' signalDr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too. Fallond Stock Picks More About: Commentary , Weekly , Resistance , Holds
Semiconductors find support at 50-day MA
2009-05-14 23:07:00 It has been a tough last few days; the strong push through the 200-day MA gave way to 5-days of sharp declines - declines which pushed it below 200-day and 20-day MAs and into the clutches of the 50-day MA. Technicals are a mixed bag. The MACD is in the early phase of a decline but the CCI has swung to a 'buy' signal (unconvincing though it looks). Stochastics are similarly mixed with a 'sell' on the intermediate time frame but oversold on the short term. Add in the underperformance to the Nasdaq 100 with weakening trend (bull or bear) probably means this is going to drift along until bulls get their act together to break what is now 270 resistance.Until then, don't expect any miracles from it or by association the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too. Fallond Stock Picks More About: Find , Support
Stock Market Commentary: 20-day MAs break
2009-05-13 23:27:00 It had to happen eventually but the 20-day MA broke as support for the Nasdaq as technical weakness magnified. The next port of call is the 50-day MA.The Dow dropped back to its 20-day MA so at least bulls have something to defend.The Nasdaq 100 suffered a significant gap down and looks set to add to its weaknessBut hardest hit were Small Caps. Technical weakness intensified as it started to underperform Tech; markets are left aligned in their most bearish formation {Large Caps > Tech > Small Caps}50-day MAs are next on the menuDr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too. Fallond Stock Picks More About: Commentary , Stock Market , Break
Stock Market Sentiment: Three 'Sell' Triggers out of Four
2009-05-13 12:19:00 The NYSE Summation Index is the only breadth indicator currently supporting the rally. Even if the market was to continue down it would take 2-3 days for it to switch it to a 'Sell '.The S&P Bullish Percents, Percentage of Stock s above 50-day MA and Percentage of Stocks above 200-day MA have all crossed below their 5-day EMAs. The chief driver of this rally from a breadth perspective has been the Percentage of Stocks above the 200-day MA, but now it has run into resistance and looks done in the short term.The good news is that the breadth picture has changed. The bearish trend in place since 2006 has been broken. Now it's just a matter of time turning the positive developments in breadth into a sustainable, long term, rally. But in the short term it is looking a clear 'Sell'. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too. Fallond Sto... More About: Stock Market , Triggers
Stock Market Commentary: 20-day MA Support
2009-05-12 22:57:00 The Nasdaq lost some, gained some, then lost a little again - but none of it broke below the 20-day MA. The next few days will mark the battle between support of the 20-day MA and resistance of the 200-day MA; these two lines are squeezing together, a violent response is expected.Large caps remain caught between 20-day and 200-day MAs with room to move either way:The Russell 2000 flashed 'sell' signals in supporting technicals:Most worryingly for tech, semiconductors took another substantial hit but the 50-day MA held as supportHow will it break?Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too. Fallond Stock Picks More About: Commentary , Stock Market , Support
Swiss Franc Trust ($FXF) leading Euro Trust ($FXE) with Breakout
2009-05-12 11:29:00 Can't remember where I got this pairing from but I think it was Corey at AfraidtoTrade. When one breaks the other usually follows suit. We have a situation where the Swiss Franc Trust (FXF) has broken from its recent base; setting up a potential move to 101.15. But it also augurs well for the Euro Trust (FXE) which has yet to emerge from its base. However, you can follow the action by saving this chart to your Zignals account here and creating an alert to go off on a Price Break of $137.41. See us on Chart.ly; feel free to retweet me!Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too. Fallond Stock Picks More About: Leading
Stock Market Commentary: Tale of Two Cities
2009-05-11 23:08:00 For Large Caps it was a hasty retreat but for Tech not much happened. Large Caps stayed on course to reach their 200-day MAs as Tech averages struggled to hold theirs. Most worryingly, the Semiconductor Index, having breached rising support from March lows now finished Monday below its 200-day MA. The Semicondutor index is now looking at the 50-day MA for support. This creeping weakness has impacted on the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 with the MACD trigger 'sells' in the aforementioned indices.The Dow is lagging nearly all of the key indices but has now started to outperform Tech markets even on the back of Monday's down day.Look for further cycling of money out of Tech into the relative safety of Large Caps over the next couple of weeks.Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too. Fallond Stock Picks More About: Commentary , Stock Market , Cities
Weekly Stock Charts review from Stockcharts.com Publishers
2009-05-11 10:54:00 Rally keeps its feet in the air. Battleground defined by 200-day MAs. What had the Stock charters to say about it. Top of the pile this week (for the first time) was Tomas Lesxczyski of Santoren.com. Interesting band analysis of the 60-min SPX; moving to a new elevation - but will rollover once top band is tagged?I like the bottom bounce call here; one more down leg to come?Positive turn in accumulation after the SPY has tacked on considerable gain!Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview has mostly neutral signals in the short term with a mix of bull/bear on the intermediate time frame; probably not as toppy as the charts look?Yong Pan has cued for a major move based on tightening of B.Bands.'Sell' signal in the daily SPY:Breadth remains on the 'buy' side:I really like the call for a head-and-shoulder reversal on the weekly; 750 looks a good place for support on a retracement.Anthony Caldaro of Elliot Wave Blog offers up a more negative prognosis on the monthly S&P; if the ABC doesn't morp... More About: Publishers , Review , Charts , Weekly
Weekly Market Commentary: Bullish Percents at Peak High
2009-05-11 00:11:00 The Nasdaq Bullish Percent is likely to weaken next week (which will come with a sharp decline). However, this may not materialize into a longer downtrend but instead repeat the early part of 2007 where breadth diverged from the indices as it does now. The 2007 bearish divergence was an early warning to the troubles that followed - even though the Nasdaq rallied for another 9 months. The current bullish divergence for October-March lows between the Nasdaq and Nasdaq breadth suggests somethings similarly large could be in the works (on the bull side), even if the market makes another run on March lows. The S&P Bullish Percents were finally able to break resistance which had long been surpassed for other breadth indicators. It was the last to do so. The Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA is in rarified air and has the same strong bullish divergence at play. As for the indices the Russell 2000 is soon to come up against 517 resistanceAnd the Nasdaq 100 is just a few points shy of... More About: Commentary , Market , High , Weekly
Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator Bearish Divergence
2009-05-08 10:45:00 Although there are a tonne of overbought conditions in various breadth indicators the Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator as added its voice with a bearish divergence kicked off from the middle of March.A bearish cross of the zero line in the Oscillator will coincide with a closing break of the reaction lows trendline (currently just over 1,700); good place for a trailing stop?I have the NYSE for comparisonDr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too. Fallond Stock Picks More About: Bearish
Stock Market Commentary: One Day Loss has Support
2009-05-07 22:26:00 The inevitable happened and sellers took control on heavy volume. It's not all bad given the proximity of the first level of support, namely the indices 20-day MAs. For the Nasdaq this means 1682 but the bigger concern is the sharp drop in relative performance against the S&P; it certainly looks like Tech has had its day at least for now. The semiconductor index took the hit hardest but it did fall back to rising support and didn't lose its 200-day MA. However, there was a 'sell' in the CCI and a bearish divergence in the MACD trigger line. The S&P showed what a mediocre day it was for Large Caps. Whatever strength emerges over the next few days will likely be channeled to large caps over Tech stocks, but in the larger scheme of things everything will head down in the short term as overbought market conditions are relieved. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builde... More About: Commentary , Stock Market , Stock , Support
Stock Market Commentary: Another Set of Bearish Candlesticks - But Does It
2009-05-06 23:31:00 A day of divergences where money shifted from Tech to Large Caps. Both the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 finished with bearish Hanging Man candlesticks with sizable volume reflecting the churn. However, it was the sharp shift in relative strength in favour of the S&P which is of greater concern for this rally.The Russell 2000 acted in the middle and retains its overall leadership of the market. It still has room to get to 515 resistance or the 200-day MA. As a final note the MACD of the Nasdaq Summation Index is on a 'Sell' Trigger. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too. Fallond Stock Picks More About: Commentary , Stock Market , Bearish
Market Sentiment: S&P Bullish Percent at Resistance
2009-05-06 10:52:00 The S&P Bullish Percent has reached the reaction high resistance from the start of the year. This follows the break of resistance in the Summation Index and Percentage of Stocks above 50-day MA. Even the former lagging Percentage of Stocks above the 200-day MA has reached resistance from last August highs: All very healthy for the long term even if the short term this has been thin air for the best part of a month. The "Death Cross" between the 50-day and 200-day MAs of the VIX shows a long term shift towards low volatility; even if in relative terms @33 it is near the upper range of volatility for a bull market but well below the lows of a bear market. Having said that, the cyclical bear market has at least a year left in the tank but the worst looks behind us. But the secular bear still has a cyclical bull and bear market ahead of it; the next cyclical bear market will probably come on the back of all the inflation the current stimulus will generate. Gold Bugs are a bear cyclical ... More About: Market , Resistance , Sentiment
Stock Market Commentary: Respectable Recovery
2009-05-05 22:35:00 Each time the market looks ready to take a punt downwards it surprises and recovers early losses. The Nasdaq held above the 200-day MA on what could be a bearish harami doji but I would take the latter with a huge grain of salt. Volume ranked as distribution but the loss was not as big as had initially looked. Technicals remain firm.The Nasdaq 100 didn't show any distributionAs a side note, the monthly VIX has the looks a bullish wedge; will we have a rocky summer?This article from TheBigPicture suggests otherwise.Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too. Fallond Stock Picks More About: Commentary , Recovery , Stock Market
Twitter Advertising on Site
2009-05-05 01:36:00 I am running a new feature which allow advertisers run their Twitter feeds on this site. This gives advertisers more flexibility and adaptability while been easier to manage from my end.I had initially planned to use the Flash embedded widget from Twitter, but for all its gloss it's donkey slow (REAL slow....). Instead I have opted for the Java FriendFeed widget as a suitable alternative. The styling of the widget will be as for my current Friendfeed and only the most recent FriendFeed post will show. Scale: 200 x 200No of posts displayed: 1Requirements: FriendFeed accountOnce the widget is created it should be sent to me by email for approval. Adult sites will not be accepted. Feeds containing profanity will be removed and payment for that month refunded; the amount refunded will be less the number of days the twitter feed ran on the site.The four rates are$350 / month$250 / month$200 / month$100 / monthThese rates will be subject to review on January 1st of each year.Rates to be ... More About: Advertising , Site
Stock Market Commentary: Cracks through 200-day MA
2009-05-05 00:00:00 src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com /pagead/show_ads.js"> This rally just keeps chugging along. The bearish black candlesticks of two days ago in the Nasdaq has been negated and was combined with a break of the 200-day MA.The Dow also made decent inroads towards its 200-day MA as it pulled away from former declining resistance. However, volume to the upside was very light. The Nasdaq 100 managed a new reaction high in on-balance-volume as the index pulled away from its 200-day MAThe semiconductor index posted sizable gains as it continued to drive past its 200-day MA. The fresh MACD trigger 'buy' adds to the bulls cause although the CCI is heavily overbought (surprise surprise!). Leadership from semiconductors will be very important in the next bull market.Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too. Fallond Stock Picks More About: Commentary , Stock Market , Cracks
Weekly Stock Market Commentary: Resistance tested
2009-05-03 22:33:00 An interesting week. The Nasdaq fell 6 points shy of the 2004 reaction low and is rich in the short term. However, long term stochastics have yet to cross the mid-line so this particular rally isn't done yet.Also working in its favour is the push towards 2006 reaction lows for the Nasdaq 100 - the Nasdaq 100 having surpassed its 2004 reaction low some weeks ago.The Nasdaq Bullish Percent Index is a few points from the bull market reversal zone. Suffice to say, technicals are heavily overbought. Especially the Percentage of Nasdaq stocks above the 50-day MA; this is well above 5-year highsThe NYSE is showing similar extremes; below is the Summation Index:Although the S&P has only just reached bear market resistance in its Bullish Percent Index; Large Caps aren't out of the woods the same way Tech has managed over the past weeks.Tech markets are looking rosy, even if in the short term it would be hard to be a buyer. Large caps will eventually be dragged up but the Bullish Percent in... More About: Commentary , Stock Market , Market , Stock , Weekly
Scratchback Funds Allocated: New KIVA loans
2009-05-01 12:13:00 My Scratchback links have seen some activity now that my blog is hitting the 15,000 page views a month thanks to the support of Finviz.com. The two most recent purchases were by Chris of Big Moving Stock and Justin of Penny Stock Picks.The $25 payments are allocated to KIVA projects, bringing the total number of projects supported to 107. If you would like to help you should purchase a Scratchback link to my site today. The two projects to be funded were a tutor in Lebanon and a couple in Cambodia to help send one of their kids to school. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too. Fallond Stock Picks More About: Loans , Kiva , Funds
Stock Market Commentary: Black Candlesticks Spell Trouble
2009-05-01 00:21:00 The Nasdaq tagged its 200-day MA after the morning gap faded into the close. The higher volume reflects churning as profit takers hand over to weak holders. The Nasdaq 100 also flashed a black candlestick but held above its 200-day MA - but it is questionable how long it can continue to hold this moving average. Large and Small Caps were relatively uneventful. Ironically, the semiconductor index pushed through its 200-day MA without the signs of weakness developing in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.Typically the SOX leads but in this instance I think it will succumb to the developing downwind in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too. Fallond Stock Picks More About: Commentary , Stock Market , Black
Market Sentiment: Breadth Ascent Slowing
2009-04-30 10:51:00 The old boundaries of the bear market may be broken but breadth is struggling to maintain recent form. The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA has entered the 80th percentile, although it had plumbed to the depths of the 5th percentile at the worst of the market crisis. It can go higher but corrections in the indicator tend to be sharp and it's primed for a fall. The more sedate Summation Index is also slowing. At 413 it is only 90 points or so shy of bull market top territory but it's the narrowing of the indicator to its 5-day EMA that is most of concern. The breadth indicator which is in a position to maintain its run is the Bullish Percents. At 55% it has only passed bear market top territory but could run another 15% before it approached bull market levels. But none of the above can hide the real momentum behind the rally as displayed by the Percentage of Stocks above their 200-day MA. Bulls can take real confidence from the strength shown by market participant... More About: Market , Sentiment
KIVA: two new loans
2007-11-28 11:06:00 Two new KIVA loans made possible by KIVA borrower repayments. The first goes to a group of women in Guatemala (I think this is the first time I have seen a group loan effort): The clients of the ComUnity (the term used by Friendship Bridge for their communal banks) Chikuwa have an astute and patient attitude, a combination that helps them to be the great business women that they currently are. The clients of ComUnity Chikuwa are models of micro-entrepreneurial women. Several members of the group started selling huipiles (traditional Guatamalan dresses) and shoes in the streets of San Juan la Laguna, Sololá. However, with their current loan many of them have become successful business owners. For example, Susan Ujpán now has ten artisans working for her during the high season such as Christmas. Clara Perez is a micro-entrepreneur who began with a small business raising animals and who is now buying 100 chickens per month in order to fatten them and resell them 21 days later. C... More About: Loans , Kiva
Market Review: Small caps ahoy!
2007-11-27 10:16:00 Bears stamped on the post-holiday feel-good rally taking the indices not only to last Wednesday's lows, but in some cases beyond it (I am looking at the Dow and S&P here). The index to watch for today is the Russell 2000. It finished as close to support as it could without breaking it. Another down day like Monday's and only a 'bear trap' would save it - i.e. Wednesday (tomorrow) would have to be a massive rally. A confirmed double top in the Russell 2000 would likely signal the same for Large caps - and eventually Tech indices too The semiconductors tell their own sad story; in July they were challenging 550, now they are struggling to hold 400 - a 27% fall is bad is anyone's books, but I am surprised this hasn't influenced the Nasdaq, or Nasdaq 100 more. A developing bullish divergence in the supporting CCI gives the best hope for value buyers: Tuesday will be interesting. Fallond More About: Market , Review , Small
Bears swilling in the muck
2007-11-23 17:22:00 An incredible (further) sell off on Wednesday has been followed with a modest pullback on this shorterned trading day. The biggest story of the week are the internals - something you will have no doubt seen mentioned on other blogs. Here is my take. The Nasdaq Bullish Percent Index is only a couple of points away from entering bear market oversold territory, but is at a bottom for a bull market: The percentage of Nasdaq stocks above the 50-day MAs is also lingering close to bear market territory, and like the bullish percents, is at a level which generated the August bounce. Note the developing bullish divergence in Ultimate Oscillator, a good sign for a bottom here. The Nasdaq Summation Index is perhaps the only internal which still has some downside room to indicate a strong bottom, but an uptick here would not preclude a decent rally: Today's action will be interesting for those few traders who decide to take a dip in the pool, as things look nicely set for a big gap up ... More About: Bears , Bear
Still no broadband...
2007-11-23 17:20:00 Broadband delayed until next Tuesday when Eircom issued for a modem to be mailed, but had no modem to mail. Grrr.... More About: Broadband , Broad
Tumble tumble....
More articles from this author:2007-11-20 11:04:00 The indices took another big knock with the Russell 2000 the index to watch for today: The Nasdaq has at least the 200-day MA to look too But large caps look to be using the Russell play book - bye bye last week's lows: And we won't mention the semiconductors: Fallond 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 |
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