Fallond Trade History Fallond Trade History Market Analysis and Stock Commentary. Stock Picks and a Daily Newsletter delivered straight to your Email Address. Articles
KIVA: two new loans
2007-11-28 11:06:00 Two new KIVA loans made possible by KIVA borrower repayments. The first goes to a group of women in Guatemala (I think this is the first time I have seen a group loan effort): The clients of the ComUnity (the term used by Friendship Bridge for their communal banks) Chikuwa have an astute and patient attitude, a combination that helps them to be the great business women that they currently are. The clients of ComUnity Chikuwa are models of micro-entrepreneurial women. Several members of the group started selling huipiles (traditional Guatamalan dresses) and shoes in the streets of San Juan la Laguna, Sololá. However, with their current loan many of them have become successful business owners. For example, Susan Ujpán now has ten artisans working for her during the high season such as Christmas. Clara Perez is a micro-entrepreneur who began with a small business raising animals and who is now buying 100 chickens per month in order to fatten them and resell them 21 days later. C... More About: Loans , Kiva
Market Review: Small caps ahoy!
2007-11-27 10:16:00 Bears stamped on the post-holiday feel-good rally taking the indices not only to last Wednesday's lows, but in some cases beyond it (I am looking at the Dow and S&P here). The index to watch for today is the Russell 2000. It finished as close to support as it could without breaking it. Another down day like Monday's and only a 'bear trap' would save it - i.e. Wednesday (tomorrow) would have to be a massive rally. A confirmed double top in the Russell 2000 would likely signal the same for Large caps - and eventually Tech indices too The semiconductors tell their own sad story; in July they were challenging 550, now they are struggling to hold 400 - a 27% fall is bad is anyone's books, but I am surprised this hasn't influenced the Nasdaq, or Nasdaq 100 more. A developing bullish divergence in the supporting CCI gives the best hope for value buyers: Tuesday will be interesting. Fallond More About: Market , Review , Small
Bears swilling in the muck
2007-11-23 17:22:00 An incredible (further) sell off on Wednesday has been followed with a modest pullback on this shorterned trading day. The biggest story of the week are the internals - something you will have no doubt seen mentioned on other blogs. Here is my take. The Nasdaq Bullish Percent Index is only a couple of points away from entering bear market oversold territory, but is at a bottom for a bull market: The percentage of Nasdaq stocks above the 50-day MAs is also lingering close to bear market territory, and like the bullish percents, is at a level which generated the August bounce. Note the developing bullish divergence in Ultimate Oscillator, a good sign for a bottom here. The Nasdaq Summation Index is perhaps the only internal which still has some downside room to indicate a strong bottom, but an uptick here would not preclude a decent rally: Today's action will be interesting for those few traders who decide to take a dip in the pool, as things look nicely set for a big gap up ... More About: Bears , Bear
Still no broadband...
2007-11-23 17:20:00 Broadband delayed until next Tuesday when Eircom issued for a modem to be mailed, but had no modem to mail. Grrr.... More About: Broadband , Broad
Tumble tumble....
2007-11-20 11:04:00 The indices took another big knock with the Russell 2000 the index to watch for today: The Nasdaq has at least the 200-day MA to look too But large caps look to be using the Russell play book - bye bye last week's lows: And we won't mention the semiconductors: Fallond
Market review
2007-11-19 10:48:00 Bulls made a better stab at it to close the week out. Options expiration clouded the volume issue, so whether it was an actual accumulation day for the indices will probably depend on what happens on Monday. Thanksgiving will suppress trading volumes - so the issue of whether there is support will probably resolve itself the following week. Tech averages were able to find some ground at the 200-day MA, although large caps finished the week below this important moving average. On better news, small caps are finding some footing in what looked like a void of support around 760-770. It's technicals are oversold and in a good position to build some upside. Semiconductors look ready to bounce as the endless selling starts to tire - which will help the Tech averages. Fallond More About: Market , Review
Market Review
2007-11-16 10:24:00 Bears had a field day as they pushed the Bulls around with relative ease, taking down what modicum of strength buyers tried to muster from the open. Volume again eased in a trend which suggests selling enthusiasm is on the wane, even if the headlines suggest otherwise. Nasdaq internals still haven't hit the levels seen in August (although August lows did reach deep oversold levels) so the inkling here favors more downside. If the Summation index: and percentage of stocks above the 50-day MA can rise above their 5-day EMAs with supporting technical 'buys' for the likes of the MACD (in particular), then there is the potential for a strong bullish divergence which would set up a 'Santa' rally. Long term bears will look to August lows as the line in the sand for the start of the next cyclical bear market. For the semiconductors it looks like the cyclical bear is off and running: While small caps are perhaps the first of the lead indices to worry about such support: With l... More About: Market , Review
G100 Ranking - S&P 500
2007-11-14 10:15:00 Ronald Domingues runs a "G100 Ranking " for the S&P based on participant predictions for the S&P over the next 24 hours. Up to 100 individuals can qualify to participate if they score greater than 35% accuracy in their predictions (currently 33 make the grade). Underperformers are demoted back to a pool, and those from the pool with a greater than 35% accuracy are promoted. Prior to the market open he sends an email out with the results of the poll. This was yesterday's pre-market call: Further information can be found here.
Market Review
2007-11-13 18:22:00 The Nasdaq found its legs at the 200-day MA and is at least enjoying a bounce. The Nasdaq 100 wasn't as weak and has risen in sympathy prior to testing its 200-day MA. However, yesterday's selling put a big dent in the rate of decline for the supporting technicals. Bullish percents, stocks above 50-day MA, and summation index all suggest there is likely more downside to come. This will be of little comfort to large and small caps which are lingering below their respective 200-day MAs (small caps are well below their 200-day MA). Fallond More About: Market , Review
The bounce begins
2007-11-12 17:29:00 With so much overhead supply it is hard to see where indices can go here. The Nasdaq is perhaps looking at a move back to the 50-day MA (along with the Nasdaq 100). The Dow and S&P will perhaps loiter around their 200-day MAs, while semiconductors and small caps swirl around in confused trading - perhaps finding resistance at their 20-day MAs. Fallond More About: Bounce
Limited 'Net acccess until November 23rd
2007-11-09 18:10:00 New home - new dilemmas. Broadband access won't be available until November 23rd at the latest. This likely means no blog update for this weekend. The same goes for the main website. Subscribers will get an email commentary on the market action and memberships will be extended for the period of the downtime. Fallond More About: Limited
Market Report
2007-11-08 17:31:00 Bulls and bears are in a bit of a tussle, but given this fight is occurring in the low end of yesterday's range the advantage would lie with the bears. The weekly close will be of a significant importance for the averages. For the Nasdaq there is still a good deal of support to look too: But bears will point to the extended weakness in the semiconductors. There is very little in the way of support until July lows are tested - ugly.... Large caps are in the process of making an important test of 40-week MA support. A decisive volume break of this average would set up a test of the August lows and a potential double top confirmation. But, this is still some time away: Small caps are in bigger trouble having cut through their 40-week MA. Only August lows remain to save the Russell 2000. Lower highs and lower lows are on the cards: Fallond More About: Market , Report
Up...Down...Up...Down
2007-11-07 16:56:00 The blog posts will be a little slow for the next few days as I have relocated into a new abode and need to get set up on wireless/broadband. The markets are trading in a scrappy up and down, mixed with rising volatility. Support from mid-October lows still holds true for many indices, but overhead supply is never far from any strong day the market logs. There is some interesting bullish action from some of my newsletter stock picks - which would at least indicate some pockets of strength: Mastercard (MA) for one: Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is another: Maybe today is a day for buying? Fallond
Loadsa money
2007-11-06 16:15:00 Great link from Maoxian, and one for the Shiller/Pring crowd. Peterochina's valued more than the entire Russian Stockmarket. Needless to say, it has a weekly chart riddled with exhaustion gaps - all part of one big blow off top. Fallond More About: Money
Market Report
2007-11-05 23:14:00 November 5th: The day could have been worse for bulls, but the picture which existed Friday remained stable on Monday. The 20-day MAs remained as support for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. although the S&P drifted a little off its 50-day MA. Friday's action created potential double bottoms for the Dow, S&P and Russell 2000, although it would have been better to have seen upside follow through on Monday, bulls can take some heart that losses didn't expand. Tuesday will probably open weak - but let futures be ones guide. Fallond More About: Market , Report
Quickie: Interactive Brokers (IBKR)
2007-11-05 11:57:00 With markets in a state of flux as marked by recent (and increasing) volatility now can be a good time to step back and take a look at other strategies to work your money in the market. Trader's narrative wrote a nice piece on Interact ive Brokers (IBKR). Babak's piece has identified a great dollar-cost-average candidate. The head-and-shoulders pattern he illustrated may/may not come to fruition, but the stock is forming a solid looking base - a great time to drip invest in the stock. The advantage of the dollar-cost-average approach is that most of your money stays in cash, so timing a bottom becomes less of a concern, and once the market (and the stock) finds strength one can look to increase the investment/average up. In this case, one would look for confirmation on a break of the head-and-shoulder neckline with a second chance provided on the break of the IPO price. Fallond Traders Narrative
Sponsored Review: Condor Options
2007-11-03 23:37:00 Condor Options is a nicely done site where the focus is trading "Iron Condors". Their aim is to provide a single trade every month which generates a 10% return on your investment. A simple goal. It is a subscription based service, charging $139 a month with a 30-day money back guarantee. Iron Condor only deals in options trading. The performance of the site's picks since May have been excellent with only two reported losses out of thirteen for the strategy (although the 37% loss may have been a killer to a small account): The site also has a blog which features about two posts a week: In their promotional material, their raison d'etre is Look, we know there are already a billion trading newsletters out there. So why start yet another one? Because all the newsletters and trading services we’ve come across rely on their stock-picking, fundamental analysis, or other directional skills to make trades. There’s nothing wrong with that, but we know that it’s possible to ... More About: Review , Sponsored , Condor
Stockcharts.com Weekly review
2007-11-03 21:31:00 After last week's volatile session what had the stockcharters to say about it? It should be noted, only a sample of the works of the following posters is presented, by following the appropriate link one can get further details on their research and opinion. Dr. Joe heads with his week in summary: Based on historical trends, Dr. Joe is looking for a Dow rally: While seeing a top too? Although his S&P retail chart is interesting - but one should ignore the over dependence on momentum indicators (all of which the same thing - you only need one Joe!) The Ted lines are seeing support for the Nasdaq 100 (and Nasdaq - just): and lo-and-behold, the semiconductors too: Maurice Walker commented on the candlestick hammers: 11/2 Commentary: Investors didn't know what to do with more optimistic economic data that was reported today, as the nonfarm payrolls increased by 166,000 jobs in October. After a choppy day of back and forth action, prices ultimately settled closing modestly... More About: Review , Weekly
Market Report
2007-11-01 23:23:00 I am still a head full of mucus but the last two days have been too hectic to not comment. Bulls are in trouble. Not only have Tech [NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100] breakouts reversed, but have done so on heavier volume - leaving large bull traps in the wake of the Fed decision. Both of these indices generated whipsaw signals in their MACD trigger lines - another mechanism which will have trapped bulls on the (former) Fed breakout. The warning signs were clear in the underperforming semiconductor index, and it was somewhat ironic to see this index relatively unscathed by the broad sell off. What is of greater concern for bulls is the action in the large caps [Dow and S&P]. Both left large bearish (and somewhat complicated) "falling three method" continuation patterns. The Dow cleaved through its 50-day MA and it's almost a turkey shoot to reach its 200-day MA. Adding insult to injury, nearly every heavy volume day since the start of October has been a distribution day and toda... More About: Market , Report
Down and Out with a Cold
2007-10-31 22:07:00 About to crawl into bed for an early night as a head cold has knocked me out. I will look to put some charts up on Friday to detail the market reaction to the Fed. One volatile day! Fallond More About: Cold
Market Review
2007-10-30 22:59:00 Minor losses on mixed volume; there was a registered distribution day for the NASDAQ, but other indices eased on light volume into the second day of the Fed meeting. But even the NASDAQ distribution day is likely to be overshadowed by whatever reaction comes from the Fed rate decision. Two indices to watch are the semiconductors - which are deep in trouble: and Transports - which are trading a fine line of 50-day MA support, and well off confirming Dow highs: Fallond More About: Market , Review
TechTarget (TTGT)
2007-10-29 23:29:00 TechTarget (TTGT) is an interesting stock as the 2007 IPO drifted from its post launch gains, down to the $11s before reversing its losses and breaking $15.80 resistance. It featured to newsletter subscribers in September as it was shaping its right-hand-base. The stock found enough momentum to take it to $18.69 before it entered its current October consolidation, generating a positive back test of $15.80. Technicals are nicely bullish with a MACD trigger line well placed to signal a "BUY" while knocking around well above the bullish zero line. Earnings are scheduled for November 7th and with no overhead resistance a positive surprise could send this flying. Fallond
Market Report
2007-10-29 23:14:00 All eyes are on the Fed this week. Although Monday's action put in a decent gain for the markets, the gains were unable to make much directional headway. The only index to buck the trend was the semiconductor index as it finally logged a positive after lagging the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 for all of last week. The NASDAQ 100 remained contained by 2,205 resistance - so the Fed decision will have a big impact on what happens to this index. The Russell 2000 reversed off its 20-day MA, but it didn't come across as a major test of resistance. Large caps [Dow and S&P] were unchanged around their 20-day MAs. The other point of note was the reversal back below the 5-day EMA for the Nasdaq Percentage of Stocks above their 50-day MA ($NAA50R). This indicator frequently suffers from whipsaw around this moving average so a positive Fed decision could see this moving average breached once more. Fallond More About: Market , Report
Stockcharts.com Weekly review
2007-10-27 22:54:00 Bulls kept things going as well as could have been expected given the weak action in the semiconductors. What had the Stockcharters to say about it? Dr. Joe kicked off with his weekly summary: Joe is watching for a potential double bottom for stochastics in the Dow: Maurice Walker has reason for optimism: In the valley where I live there was a man named Gordon Elwood, but all the kids nicknamed him Stan-the-Can-Man. The elderly Elwood rode his broken down old bicycle up and down the streets, digging cans out of dumpsters to recycle for cash. Most people were repulsed by his appearance and assumed he was homeless. He was shabbily dressed and wore second-hand tattered clothes. He used a bungee cord as a belt to hold up his pants. Elwood's bedraggled appearance was a pathetic thing to behold, but mostly Elwood was ignored. He drank out dated milk, eating old bread, and he accepted food hand outs from the Salvation Army. He showed up on holidays at charitable organizations to ea... More About: Review , Weekly
Stockcharts.com: Weekly review
2007-01-24 23:10:02 A relatively quiet week for the Stock charters - an unusual lack of interest in the technical breakouts of Tech indices/Qs. Ted Burge opened with an interesting chart on United States Oil Fund (USO). He has marked support at $43.55 and there was a nice bullish harami at support. Ted has a website: www.tic-tac-dough.com , which has further information. Although Jack Chan sees little love: More About: Review , Hart , Charts , View
Trade Ideas: AVZ, JRN, GPS, KNL, PTP, VZ, FCH, JCI
2007-01-24 23:10:02 Tech is having a great day and is pulling the other indices up with it. I took a quick look at Richard Lehman's Trend Channel Stockchart public list and he has the Nasdaq breaking upside from a 3-year rising channel (The S&P did something similar back in October). The Trade Idea s scan was surprisingly limp considering; 8 picks covered a time span of 13 minutes - yesterday's buying was better than
Weekend Commentary from Fallondpicks.com
2007-01-24 23:10:02 The long weekend likely contributed to the lower volume traded on Friday, but all-in-all it was a good week for the bulls. Solid breakouts in the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, Dow, and S&P have reinstated the bull market and put some pressure on the weak technical pictures supporting these indices. Chief of which were the across the board MACD bearish divergences - now pressurized by NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 More About: Commentary , Men , Weekend , Week , Menta
Trade Ideas: UNP
2007-01-24 23:10:02 A quiet day for the markets saw the Trade Idea s scan drift out to 50 minutes for 8 picks. Union Pacific (UNP) screamed ahead with 53 appearances on the Trade Ideas scan day after breaking from a declining wedge. Larger resistance lurks at $97.49 with a projected target of $117.49. Stops on a loss of $90. Union Pacific Corporation, through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company,
KIVA new loan
More articles from this author:2007-01-24 23:10:02 The latest loan comes courtesy of A. Ross, IL. If you haven't got a KIVA account now is a great time to get the year off to a good start. If you would like a KIVA loan made to a project of your choice and receive my newsletter, subscribe to my service and I will allocate $25 of your annual membership payment to a project of your choice. An "upgraded cow" is an interesting prospect... KIVA More About: Loan , Kiva 1, 2, 3, 4 |
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