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The 5 Min. Forecast

The 5 Min. Forecast
A daily blog designed to cut through the incredible glut of news by providing you with a quick and dirty round up of the most essential ideas and not-so-common knowledge.
Articles: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7

Articles

Nothing to Worry About
2011-01-28 22:32:00
Inflation ?not a cause of concern? at Davos... While food riots rage in world?s largest Arab country. Q4 GDP prints at 3.2%...The 5 digs in for devilish details. Gold bounces off 4-month low... Fascinating chart points to ongoing demand. Readers resurrect ghost of Smoot-Hawley, insist on a ?balanced? track record...
More About: Today , Worry
How We Blew It
2011-01-27 22:37:00
The 5 throws itself upon the mercy of readers... How a government agency showed us up. Arab leaders try to stave off revolt, drive wheat prices to highest since summer 2008. S&P downgrades Japan... prompting Chuck Butler to start thinking "Conspiracy!" Prime foreclosure property... if you're a herpetologist. Wide consensus of readers urges us to "ignore the nutball" who told us to "keep politics out of it."
More About: Foreclosures , Today , Minutes , Deficit
Cold-Hearted Research
2011-01-26 22:09:00
Keep politics out of it, a reader urges... We try to oblige as we analyze the State of the Union. President seeks to ?encourage American innovation?... Soaring rhetoric smacks into wall of reality. Dow 12,000 as traders await new Fed proclamation. First, an export squeeze... Now Chinese plan a rare earth stockpile. Crippled by credit bubble, done in by shifting sands... Dubai archipelago literally going under.
More About: Research , Cold
The War on Small Business, Continued
2011-01-25 22:48:00
The 5 unveils its proprietary Lenny Skutnik Indicator? so you?ll know what policies to expect from the State of the Union address. Weather-adjusted GDP? British innovation headed to America? Gold and silver slide some more? two indicators silver buyers are seizing an opportunity. The end of rare earths? Byron King on Toyota?s attempts to break free of China?s stranglehold. Dig this? An overlooked victim of the downturn.
More About: Business , Small Business , Small
Gold stocks look cheap
2011-01-24 21:23:00
China, Russia accumulate more gold, silver. Dan Amoss on why gold stocks look cheap. After an S&P pullback, why ?it?s still too early to call a top.? African power struggle powers cocoa prices to new high. Illinois raises income taxes, native businessman bails after three decades...
More About: Stocks , Gold , Cheap
Brace for ?The GM Option?
2011-01-21 23:36:00
New threat to municipal bond investors: ?The GM Option.? Chinese commerce minister fingers West for rare earth squeeze... and why he has a point. Chinese ?tightening? to stifle commodity bull run? Alan Knuckman says don?t count on it. Gold dips below $1,350, but James Turk keeps the faith. Now you too can be stinkin? rich... in eau de fiat currency...
The 97% Elephant in the Room
2011-01-20 22:01:00
While Hu meets Obama in Washington, his deputies back home consolidate resource control. Byron King on China's "nationalization" move... and how it's still not too late to invest in rare earths. Gold whacked, stocks spanked... Steve Sarnoff on the bears hitting back. An exercise in minimalist pointlessness... The "Dow Piano." Readers follow up on hard-to-get European cars... inquire about when to sell tiny takeover targets... and insist on carrying on our Starbucks conversation.
More About: Room
Rare Earths Reeling
2011-01-19 23:38:00
?This bear market is killing me?? The 5 answers an urgent query about rare earths. ?Too far, too fast, too much?? Byron King on the rise and fall of a rare earth darling. Why investors have to think smarter about rare earths in 2011? and a dark-horse play that could beat everyone else into production. Silver Eagle sales set a monthly record? and it?s only the 19th! Et tu, Microsoft? Software giant diversifies out of the world?s reserve currency.
More About: Rare
Paper promises
2011-01-13 21:30:00
Hideous housing numbers highlight paper promises versus tangible wealth. Two charts that ought to shut up the ?gold is a bubble crowd? (even though they won?t.) Another ?wealth quake? setting off early tremors... HIV vaccine successfully tested. USDA cuts world grain forecast, corn prices now nearly double what they were 6 months ago. Behold the world?s biggest gold nugget... found just last year and now up for auction! More overseas reaction to the Tucson shooting... and big gains for Mayer?s Special Situations readers, plus a cautionary note about ?stop losses?...
More About: Gold , Today , Housing , Promises , Paper
Gold and the ?Love Trade?
2011-01-12 22:24:00
China, India go for gold: Frank Holmes on ?the love trade? in emerging markets. $426 million into $10 billion? Patrick Cox on the awesome potential behind one ?wealth quake.? Complacency rules... Jim Nelson on why the VIX is sure to rise, and a sure way to play it. ?Clarify your gross assumption?... Readers unload on our Chinese correspondent, and call our letter to Harry Reid ?a waste of time and effort.?
More About: China , Love , Gold , Today
Forex and Fighter Jets
2011-01-11 21:39:00
Record forex growth and a stealth fighter test flight... China checks two more items off its to-do list. ?The beginning of something big?... A view of the ?Tragedy in Tucson? from inside China. Euro worries ease as Portugal whistles past the graveyard. Saudi Arabia and its neighbors seek to tap nearly inexhaustible energy source (and it?s not oil.) ?Thinking outside the box?... Readers muse on whether national debt crisis is engineered on purpose.
More About: Forex , Today , Jets , Minutes
Mayhem Ahead
2011-01-10 22:56:00
The connection between the ?Tragedy in Tucson?? and ?leadership? that doesn?t listen. ?Massive breakdown of law and order? in U.S. prophesied by a reader who?s seen it first hand? and another prophecy you should read right away. ?Mere noise?? ?Best opportunity?? Byron King, John Embry weigh in on gold?s pullback. France tries to break bad dollar news to the White House? while Brazil upgrades ?currency war? warning. Chinese complete world?s longest bridge? in four years, for $8 billion.
More About: China , Today , Minutes
A Forecast Fulfilled
2011-01-07 22:45:00
2011 prediction fulfilled in the first week: Dramatic developments in the Alzheimer ?s fight. Perplexing jobs report: Not a lot of new jobs, but unemployment rate falls sharply. The 5 uncovers the discrepancy. Geithner threatens ?catastrophic consequences? if Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling? Opposition folds like a lawn chair. Reader accuses The 5 of ignoring blatant precious metals manipulation? Our reply, plus reader input on offshore drilling, China?s euro rescue and Goldman?s Facebook deal.
More About: Today , Unemployment , Minutes
Trillions, Not Billions
2011-01-06 21:47:00
Breaking News: The ?biggest announcement in the history of modern medicine?... Patrick Cox explains what it means for you... The silver bullet for heart disease and autoimmune disorders? why scientists can finally take aim. Gold man Sachs adopts techniques of Nigerian email scammers to gin up interest in Facebook ... Gold down, again? two reasons to take heart. Readers stuff The 5?s inbox on eBooks? shrinking food packages? the Dow-gold ratio? and we (reluctantly) accommodate a female reader?s very special request for ?equal time?...
More About: Today , Silver
?America?s Top Crisis?
2011-01-05 23:24:00
Forecast for "America 's top crisis" in 2011... and confirmation that it's already here. 7-Eleven shrinks Super Big Gulp... two profitable lessons seen through the eyes of super-gulper Alan Knuckman. Food price index reaches a record... grocers take a hit... and your opportunity for profit. Coming clean: Federal Reserve acknowledges "margin squeeze" The 5 has been detailing for months... "Premature acquisition"... Why Patrick Cox fears you could only triple your money in 2011... plus eBooks... reader snark over the BP oil spill... and a multiplier on the Nasdaq... enjoy!
More About: Today
Where There?s No Bubble
2011-01-04 20:04:00
Y2K+11: Computer glitch at the AF HQ? how we plan to make it up to you. ?No bubble? in commodities, says Alan Knuckman, just a ?baby bull.? Chris Mayer?s favorite commodity in 2011? and one sector that?s due for a rest. Byron King on the latest deep-water drilling ?smoke and mirrors? from D.C. ?Convenience that?s hard to match?? The unlikely country that?s tops in quality of life. Reserve member says he?s a ?wholehearted convert?? your (extended, yet final) chance to join him... plus postal rates and the irony of the Laissez Faire Book store...
More About: Gold , Uranium , Commodities , Today , Agriculture
Our 2011 Forecasts
2011-01-03 22:20:00
The 5?s 2011 forecast issue... Facebook at $50 billion? Ha! Why Chris Mayer sees gold stocks as the top-performing sector. Alan Knuckman?s audacious silver outlook... After $30, where next? Amoss on ?margin squeeze,? Cofnas on the return of dollar bulls and more. Devil in the details... The 5 dives inside upbeat manufacturing numbers. If consumers are roaring back, why are fewer buying movie and concert tickets?
More About: Gold , Today , Silver , Minutes
Silver?s New High
2010-12-30 21:52:00
Silver ending 2010 at 30-year high? Rick Rule, James Turk on what to expect in 2011. The two factors that will propel gold to records (again) next year. Oil stays above $90 as Brazilian oil giant plans ?underwater cities? to pull up crude from the seabed. Readers perform spell-check, squawk about the presentation format and tell us they?re sold on the Reserve based on just one sentence we wrote.
More About: Gold , Commodities , Today , Silver
Trade War 2011
2010-12-29 23:10:00
Today, we unpack the X factor: What could torpedo the stock market in 2011? China cuts rare earth export quotas far more than first reported? with the prospect of more to come. U.S. dominance of the Pacific all but over as Middle Kingdom deploys ?carrier-killer? missile... How congressional paranoia over China could start the next trade war? and a cautionary tale from 1929-30... Bailouts of foreign banks? perspective about yesterday?s retail numbers? and the mysterious slashing of book shipments? all in today?s mailbag.
More About: Trade
Behind the Retail Cheer
2010-12-28 22:22:00
Retailers celebrate holiday blowout... Why consumers will play Scrooge come 2011, and how to profit. Next stage of the rare earth squeeze... How latest announcement from Beijing has manufacturers scrambling, shareholders profiting. One less bearish factor for gold... as the metal tops $1,400 again. World's toughest co-op board... Offer in "the high teens" may not be good enough for Brooke Astor duplex. "If You Don?t Want to Lose Your Freaking Money People!" and other pithy suggestions for the name of our newest project.
More About: Retail , Cheer
Left Behind
2010-12-23 22:35:00
Left behind: While U.S. sputters, world economy doubles 2000-2010. Back to the future: Stunning chart shows China , India reassuming roles they held a millennium ago. Treasury?s ugly truth: 2010 deficit only 61% higher than you were told on CNN. An end to the flu? Patrick Cox on one of the ?wealth quakes? set to arrive in 2011. Parental discretion advised: Wiki Leaks stirs CIA, Bank of America into profanity and vulgarity. Because we don?t always know what gets our readers? dander up... An onslaught of mail about silent killer Priuses!
More About: Today , Left , Minutes
Behind the ?Recovery?
2010-12-22 23:21:00
Third-quarter GDP still a surprise... what the numbers mean for your favorite S&P stocks. "Margin squeeze" and other 2011 trends worth paying attention to... plus two great shorts from our stock market vigilante. Euro near two-month low against the dollar? but euro woes reveal unique opportunity. Latest terror to U.S. citizens: 'the Prius is too quiet'... but at least federal regulators are there to save you... Bloomberg ballyhoos gold bubble, tax evasion via Gold Eagles and your take on the ?10 Outrageous Predictions? for 2011? all among our mailbag goodies.
More About: Recovery , Today , Minutes
2011 Gold Outlook
2010-12-21 21:56:00
Gold demand, then and now: A powerful factor propelling gold for another decade. Two figures that prove conclusively gold is NOT in a bubble. Obama signs game-changer for gold and silver coins. S&P record high in 2011 among ?10 outrageous predictions.? Reader inquires the best way to play the VIX... Dan Amoss with answers.
More About: Gold , Outlook , Today , George Soros
Congressional Sabotage
2010-12-20 14:59:00
Last desperate acts of a lame-duck Congress: Is offshore drilling in even more danger? Fear on sale: VIX sits at eight-month lows, while two curious indicators spell doom. Entrepreneur offers tiny and tidy houses to victims of the Great Correction? How busybody bureaucrats, naturally, stand in the way. Replies to the guy who labels us ?airheaded?? One says, ?store up rice and beans,? another sees inevitable recovery after ?plagues, pogroms and disasters.?
More About: Today , Minutes
Alternative Universe
2010-12-17 21:43:00
An investment model for an alternative universe... and the real-world consequences for you. A universe where "inflation protection" means real estate and gold does not exist. Uranium zooms up 50% in a matter of months... One guess why, and it starts with the letter "C." 18 months in the making... Gold ATM makes its American debut today. "Airhead?" A 5 first: Reader says we're just too darned optimistic.
More About: Universe , Alternative , Today
False Choice: Yield vs. Safety
2010-12-16 21:04:00
Oil persists near $90 a barrel? Why it?s more than just a ?falling dollar? story. Bernanke Backfire reaches new heights? triggering a sell signal for bonds. Playing catch-up: Dept. of Energy issues a warning readers of The 5 have heard since early 2008. New rosy numbers for the housing market? The 5 checks the footnotes for the real story. More trouble for commercial real estate: Cube rats given less space to fill out their TPS reports.
More About: Safety , Choice
Their Inflation, and Yours
2010-12-15 20:56:00
?No inflation here? says Uncle Sam? Why your real-world experience says otherwise. Inside the statistical sausage machine that spits out sham-tastic inflation figures. Euro alert: two surprise guests about to join the PIIGS. Motivated, results-oriented team player with extensive experience seeks to make resume readers scream in horror. Frontline reports from the ?war against the zombies?? a cautionary tale about writing your congressman.
More About: Inflation , Today
Why Gold Won?t Give Up
2010-12-14 22:49:00
?I get knocked down and get up again... nothing?s going to keep me down? ... Gold goes pop! The Midas metal?s next catalyst, coming as early as this afternoon. J.P. Morgan adjusts its ?controversial? silver position as prices sit just below $30. WikiLeaks is really just a CIA conspiracy... oh, didn?t you know? Readers question the value (or lack thereof) of a college education? and collecting government goodies as compensation for the great ?shakedown?... (and suggest you write your congressman... Ha!)
More About: Today , Silver , Give , Minutes
Vigilante Justice
2010-12-13 23:32:00
Gold up, Treasury rates up? return of the Bond Vigilantes? Ugly choice: Should the White House sacrifice the bond market? or the stock market? New revelations from the Hong Kong gold exchange? Hard numbers underscore the dubious value of a college degree in 21st-century America? ?Foaming loonies? and other brickbats inspired by Assange and the $600,000 food stamp recipient?
More About: China , Justice , Today , Minutes
What?s Up With Gold?
2010-12-10 20:36:00
A bad week for gold? and why we?d like more of them. ?Popular?? ?Attractive?? Chinese load up on gold, Arabs urged to do the same. ?The gold was not there?? Scary tales of the uber-wealthy trying to take delivery from Swiss banks. How the White House and Congress slaughtered municipal bonds this week. ?Dump it!? Readers offer advice on all kinds of things: from our friends at Odyssey Marine to a wealthy food stamp recipient... and finally... some last words about WikiLeaks, Assange and Vancouver...
More About: China , Gold , Today , Mart , Minutes
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