DirectoryBusinessBlog Details for "Bob and Ted's Currency Blog"

Bob and Ted's Currency Blog

Bob and Ted's Currency Blog
A Blog space for Currency Traders and their ilk

Articles

Bob's Currency Focus - 14:30 GMT
2007-11-02 15:35:00
EUR/USDKick me when I’m down, whether I am good or bad, seems to line that springs to mind when looking at the dollar’s performance thus far Friday. One could sense the market’s appetite to go for the kill from the off this morning, when the euro moved up close to the all-time high at 1.45, before the key payroll data from the US was even released. A bad number was going to be jumped upon and were the number bad we were looking at 1.4550 and above. The market did not anticipate the figure of 166K we subsequently got – twice the estimate, but with no dollar bulls in the market, traders of EUR/USD – who are over 85% long in the market at the last count, held their nerve and their positions and after a paltry dip to 1.4450, the pair sprung upwards to hit a fresh lifetime high at 1.4521. It’s rather baffling in a sense but it is a demonstration, if one was needed, of just how negative current sentiment is against the dollar. In the days of old a nonfarm number that was twice...
More About: Currency , Focus
Bob's Currency Focus - 12:00 GMT
2007-11-01 13:15:00
EUR/USDWell, we managed to hit the magical 1.45 line Wednesday shortly after the Fed rate cut. The market is still unsure what to make of the actual accompanying statement, which on balance, was broadly neutral. We need to see the key data over the next few days (which the Fed would have had exposure to during their deliberations) to know whether a further cut in December is likely or not. If Thursday’s core PCE inflation indicator registers above last month’s 1.8% reading, then it will a signal that inflation is beginning to creep up again. In fact with oil prices hitting a ridiculous $96 a barrel level overnight, it is difficult to see how inflation is not going to become a major problem for the US, particularly given the weak dollar. The euro dropped to 1.4406 this morning because of profit-taking and if the US data today is broadly supportive of the dollar, then we could see price return towards 1.4350 ahead of Friday’s non-farm payroll data. A weak set of data results (in...
More About: Currency , Focus
Bob's Currency Focus - Oct 31
2007-10-31 18:14:00
EUR/USDJust over an hour to go to the Fed and the euro has run up to yet another new high in anticipation of a cut, which should see the euro sail over the 1.45 price mark. How high the pair can go will very much depend on what the Fed says in its accompanying statement. If the Fed hints at further monetary easing in the months ahead the euro may well reach 1.46. Any shift of bias to the inflation side could see the dollar bounce back after an initial push upwards. It is high risk stuff but one would prefer to be long right now than short. Many clever traders will stay out of it altogether until the dust has settled. Today’s report which showed US GDP grew at its fastest pace in quarter 3 since the first quarter of 2006 failed to inspire any dollar rally. The ADP employment report hinted at a possible upside surprise in this Friday’s nonfarm payroll report, as private sector jobs were reported to have risen by 105K in October, above economists’ predictions for a rise of just 6...
More About: Currency , Focus
Bob's Currency Focus - 13:00 GMT
2007-10-30 14:05:00
EUR/USDLikely to trade within a narrow range ahead of Wednesday's Fed rate announcement. There is the potential for some pullback today if risk aversion levels rise, or if speculation intensifies that the Fed could keep rates on hold. The euro though looks poised for a strike at 1.45 and we could wee see that happen Wednesday, if the Fed meet market expectations for a 25 basis point cut, or surprise with another 50 basis point cut. The Fed will have access to this week’s key economic data (PCE core inflation indicator and ISM manufacturing index, as well as October’s non-farm payrolls number) when it makes its decision, data which is not officially released until Thursday and Friday. Any sharp surprises in this key data, particularly the core inflation indicator or the payroll numbers, could potentially influence the Fed’s rate decision and the content of the statement it subsequently releases. $93 oil also cannot go unnoticed and the Fed will have to seriously consider that ...
More About: Currency , Focus
US Dollar faces Difficult Week - Oct 28
2007-10-29 00:03:00
Over the past two months we have witnessed a remarkable decline in the US dollar, with the euro gaining 10 cents on the US currency in the 9 weeks following the brief period of US dollar respite during the credit crisis turmoil back in August. As frightening as this level of sharp depreciation is for the greenback against the euro, alarmingly the US currency has depreciated at an even sharper rate against the Canadian and Australian dollars over the same short time period. This past Friday, the US dollar index closed at its lowest ever level and the currency now faces into arguably its most important week of the year’s campaign while apparently in freefall at a time when oil is trading at $92 a barrel.The Fed delivers its latest monetary policy statement next Wednesday and the smart money is on a 25 basis point rate cut. Some analysts are even predicting a cut of 50 basis points, so it now is a question not so much of ‘will they or won’t they’ but rather a case of ‘by how ...
More About: Dollar , Faces , Week , Doll , Diff
Bob's Currency Focus - 16:00 GMT
2007-10-26 18:31:00
EUR/USDYet another high for the pair Friday, coming up just shy of 1.44, but trading in bullish fashion just below this level. 1.45 now looks like a certainty to be hit next week and markets may not even wait for the Fed on Wednesday, such is the negative sentiment surrounding the dollar. We are in major overbought territory and a major dollar correction is due, once the market is satisfied a significant top has been put in place. We are highly unlikely to see any correction though until after the Fed meeting next week. Any sell-offs in EUR/USD between now and next Wednesday is only likely to be down to bouts of profit-taking, unless there is some Central Bank intervention (unlikely) and this may offer a fresh opportunity to enter the market long. The US dollar is showing increased signs of being abandoned by major players and the sharp rise in gold and oil prices over the past 3 days are very worrying for the dollar and the US economy as a whole. For now the euro will probably keep...
More About: Currency , Focus
Market Watch: Canadian Dollar - October 2007
2007-10-25 20:37:00
Is the high-flying loonie going to punish the Canadian Economy?Six months ago I wrote an article warning the loonie (called this because of the bird on Canada’s one-dollar coin) was undervalued, oversold and due for a reversal in fortune. At the time the US dollar was worth 1.1850 against the Canadian dollar, with the euro valued at 1.56 Canadian. The Canadian economy was beginning to pick up following 6 months of lacklustre growth to the end of last year. Oil prices were rallying to over $60 having come off a low of $50 a barrel earlier in the year. Consumption was on the up, exports were growing steadily, employment was rising faster than forecast, business confidence was improving and there were some early signs that inflation was beginning to tick upwards. Against this backdrop of evidence it was a mystery why the currency was rejected, but that soon changed when economic report after report demanded the world take notice. Before we had time to blink the loonie had appreciated...
More About: Watch , Market , Dollar , Market Watch
Bob's Currency Focus 12:00 GMT
2007-10-25 13:58:00
EUR/USDUS Existing Home Sales in September came in 8% lower than in August, twice as bad as what economists were forecasting. We witnessed a very strange turnaround on the Dow Industrial Average when it came from being 200 points down (understandable given the clatter of bad news circulating – including Merrill Lynch’s report of a near $3 billion dollar loss in Quarter 3, owing to the subprime fiasco) to close in positive territory. The reason appears to be that traders now appear certain that Ben Bernanke will don his white knight suit again next Wednesday and deliver a further rate cut. It is somewhat disturbing when financial markets rally in the wake of bad news on the assumption Central Banks are going to bail them out, but ultimately the US Fed are to blame for creating this market mindset. No other Central Bank has followed suit with respect to the credit crisis fiasco. Germany’s Ifo business index, one of the most important indicators for the euro, held up fairly well ...
More About: Currency , Focus
Bob's Currency Focus - 12:00 GMT
2007-10-24 13:47:00
EUR/USDThe euro has drifted to the downside Wednesday and as I write, it is at 1.4230 against the dollar, down from 1.4260 overnight (but it did go as low as 1.4190). This afternoon is going to be quite an unpredictable market with traders awaiting the latest instalment of the US housing sector horror show, when the existing homes sales data for September is released at 14:00GMT. Nobody is forecasting an optimistic outcome and the average consensus amongst economists is for the annual sales rate to have fallen to 5.3 million homes from the 5.5 million reported for August. US stock markets are expected to open lower today and the housing news, coming just 30 minutes after the open, if really bad, could spook investors and send stocks tumbling. Ironically, a subsequent rise in risk aversion and a rush to the exits could send the dollar higher and there is a chance for a fall in EUR/USD right back to Monday’s levels of 1.4125. Any decline might prove to be short-lived however as a de...
More About: Currency , Focus
Bob's Currency Focus - 15:00 GMT
2007-10-23 17:28:00
EUR/USDThe dollar may have gained the most in one day for almost two and a half years against the euro Monday but true to it form it gave back most of those gains today and the euro is now trading at the same levels it was at last Friday. The only thing that is going to enable the dollar make progress at present is if we have a sustained period of instability in equity markets, whereby a heightened demand for US bonds and a repatriation of overseas funds back to the US would see the dollar appreciate against all currencies, except the yen. Stock markets have rebounded Tuesday (albeit prematurely, as the fundamental concerns that triggered last Friday’s move have not changed) and panic-stricken traders that ran for the exits Monday are back in droves to sell-off the greenback. While this presumptuous approach may work for today, there is quite a deal of complacency out there and I for one will be surprised if we do not see Monday’s uncertainty resurrect itself again later in the ...
More About: Currency , Focus
Bob's Currency Focus - 15:30 GMT
2007-10-22 17:48:00
EUR/USDWhat a turnaround this morning. We saw the euro hit 1.4349 last night on the Asian session and then go as low as 1.4134 this morning, as the pair crashed when the European session got properly underway. The market is incredibly volatile at present and we have seen a significant rise in risk aversion levels, as demonstrated by major losses on stock markets Monday that in turn follows an average 2.6% loss on the major US stock indices last Friday. Major doubts persist about the outlook for the US economy and futures markets have now priced in 90% probability of a further rate cut from the Fed when they meet next week. While fundamentally this is not good news for the dollar, a flight to safety Monday triggered a major unwind of carry trades and a major scramble for US treasurys which saw the dollar catapulted higher across the board. As to whether or not this trend will continues very much depends on the performance of financial markets over the next day or two. Any rebound in ...
More About: Currency , Focus
Bob's Currency Focus - 13:00 GMT
2007-10-19 15:03:00
EUR/USDThe euro briefly went to 1.4320 overnight before returning to 1.4285 - the level it traded at for most of Thursday evening, after the initial surge. As long as price remains above the previous high of 1.4280, the pair will maintain its bullish tone. With no economic data out Friday, market sentiment and risk aversion will drive prices through to the week’s close. The G7 summit starts later Friday and while it is probable European Ministers will try to raise the question of the weak dollar behind closed doors, it seems highly improbably that the US will permit the release of an official communique that mentions the dollar’s exchange rate. The same goes for Japan and the yen, so any official statement on currencies will probably again focus on the Chinese yuan, given that China are not part of the G7. Markets effectively don’t expect the dollar to get a public airing and that is why there has been a bold move to push the euro higher over the past few days. Today could pro...
More About: Currency , Focus
Bob's Currency Focus - 15:00 GMT
2007-10-18 17:02:00
EUR/USDYesterday’s woeful report on US housing starts and building permits was far worse than expected and sent shockwaves through the markets and the yield on US treasurys nosedived. The dollar now finds itself under renewed pressure as markets begin to price in a further Fed rate cut at the end of October. The US dollar index has also sunk to its lowest print ever Thursday and all of this ahead of the G7 meeting which starts tomorrow and at which European officials are expected to voice concerns about the weakness of the US currency (albeit unofficially). Markets don’t appear to expect anything to materialise from the G7, because the dollar continues to be sold off in large volumes. The euro this morning took out the 1.4280 lifetime high and hit a new high of 1.4312. With dollar sentiment so negative, the dollar is going to continue to struggle, with its rallies being limited to sell-offs owing to profit-taking. What is really worrying for the US currency is its sharp decline ...
More About: Currency , Focus
Bob's Currency Focus - 12:00 GMT
2007-10-17 14:21:00
EUR/USDWe failed to see any real move upwards Tuesday and most of the price action was to the downside. 1.4150 was beached but not convincingly and immediate support for the euro is now found around 1.4140. US data yesterday was rather poor and with the international net capital flows coming in at a negative $163 billion in August, this should raise concerns within the US Treasury Department, as doubts amongst foreign investors intensify over the outlook for the US economy and by consequence dollar-denominated assets. August was the month when financial markets endured a major credit squeeze and this will have distorted the capital flow numbers and we will have to wait until next month to see if yesterday’s shock report was a one-off, or the beginning of a worrisome trend. Wednesday sees key inflation and housing data released and the best outcome for the dollar will be a bigger rise than expected in inflation and a better than expected set of housing figures. The core inflation r...
More About: Currency , Focus
Bob's Currency Focus - 12:00 GMT
2007-10-16 14:16:00
EUR/USDCurrency markets are on a volatile footing Tuesday after stock markets declined overnight and we witnessed a sharp sell-off in the carry trade this morning. This has made the euro more vulnerable, because it has appreciated significantly against the yen in recent weeks. The euro has dropped to 1.4150 against the dollar this morning, a level that has held since the middle of last week and with no key US economic releases Tuesday, direction today will be determined by risk tolerance levels. A further unwinding of carry trades will undermine the euro and the pair could retreat to 1.41, with the outside possibility of sharp return back close to 1.40, if fear intensifies. If equity markets settle, then the current market price should be taken as a buy opportunity and the euro could bounce back to 1.4240. Bernanke’s comments overnight during a speech in New York were not especially positive for the dollar and there is still a strong sense that the Fed will move to cut rates again...
More About: Focus
Bob's Currency Focus - 13:00 GMT
2007-10-15 15:11:00
EUR/USDThe euro held support at 1.4150 Friday even though US economic data was stronger than expected. The dollar is simply unable to gain any momentum at present with the market effectively anticipating a further Fed rate cut later this month. We have key inflation and housing data out in the US this Wednesday and ahead of that there is a speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke tonight. Bernanke is unlikely to give too much away in tonight’s speech ahead of a key policy meeting later this month, but if he does emphasis continued weakness in the housing sector and further downside growth risks to the wider economy, then the dollar will suffer. The euro is ideally positioned price-wise to take out the lifetime high at 1.4280, if Bernanke says the ‘wrong’ thing this evening. If he says nothing or talks up inflation risks, then there is plenty of scope for a pullback to 1.4160, or below. Failure by the dollar to take out 1.4150 will however leave the bulls firmly in control. Expect m...
More About: Currency , Focus
Bob's Currency Focus
2007-10-12 16:01:00
USDThe dollar declined against most currencies Thursday, although it did manage to recoup some of its losses towards the close and gained against sterling and the yen. Despite a better than expected reduction in the country’s trade deficit and a decline in jobless numbers, traders are generally shying away from the currency as traders begin to expect a further Fed rate cut at the end of this month. Every dollar rally we are seeing is fleeting and the market is using each opportunity as a means of selling the greenback at a cut-down price. There is huge complacency out there at the moment but with the prospect of further rate cuts in the US while on hold elsewhere, nobody wants to stay on the dollar for long. Anything short of a very positive retail sales number today is unlikely to offer even short-term dollar support. Volatility in equity markets has increased and if we see a significant decline today in stocks, it may offer the dollar some protection, albeit temporary. A poor re...
More About: Currency , Focus
Market Watch: US Exports its Deficit
2007-10-11 19:42:00
Is this deliberate policy?The US dollar has spent much of the past 6 months hitting record lows against most of the world’s leading currencies, including the pound, the euro and nearly all of the major commodity currencies: the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian Krone. The US currency has fallen 20% against the Canadian dollar (the US constitutes 80% of Canada’s exports) since March, 15% against the Australian dollar since August and 7% against the euro in the past 7 weeks. Although the dollar is the weakest of the major currencies in the world this year, US politicians have grown more vocal about the weak Chinese currency (primarily a fixed rate currency allowed to trade within a narrow band with the US dollar) and have been pushing legislative bills to penalise China for its apparent currency manipulation. Yet, is the US guilty of a similar offence and is it allowing its currency slide into the abyss, deliberately. With the US dollar index at an all-time ...
More About: Watch , Market , Market Watch , Deficit , Exports
Bob's Currency Focus - 12:00 GMT
2007-10-11 14:23:00
USDThe dollar plummeted in early European trading, with the US dollar index collapsing to below 78 again, near its all-time low. New-found negative sentiment has clung to the currency since the release of the Fed minutes Tuesday, with many analysts now expecting the Fed to again cut rates at the end of this month. Last Friday’s apparent upbeat employment report is now but a distant memory. The euro rose to above 1.42 against the dollar yet again and within striking distance of the lifetime high, while the Canadian dollar and Australian dollars hit fresh 30 year and 24 year highs respectively against the beleaguered greenback Thursday morning. The dollar has managed to rise to 117.40 against the yen, which weakened across the board as the Bank of Japan kept interest rates on hold for the fourth consecutive meeting. The dollar has also held its own against the pound which is trading weaker this morning. Some of the positioning against the US dollar looks to be ambitious in the short...
More About: Currency , Focus
Bob's Currency Focus - 12:00GMT
2007-10-10 14:20:00
EUR/USDThe Fed minutes were rather disappointing from a dollar perspective as they did not indicate that the September rate cut was a once-off and also the 50 basis point cut was unanimous and an argument was not even put forward for the smaller 25 basis point move the market was expecting. While acknowledging that the August employment report would probably be revised, the Fed was really in the dark as to growth outlook and predicted the housing sector crisis would get worse, before it got better. The minutes have fuelled expectations for a further cut in October and the market’s interpretation of such was demonstrated by both the Dow and the S&P 500 closing at record highs Tuesday. The immediate prospects of a major dollar correction look to be on hold and EUR/USD may now range trade in the 1.40 to 1.42 band, until there is some major shift in expectations. With little on the data side for Wednesday, we may initially see a euro attempt to take out 1.4160, which if it gives w...
More About: Currency , Focus
Bob's Currency Focus 12:00 GMT
2007-10-09 14:08:00
EUR/USDFriday’s euro rebound proved to have been a false move and with the positive US payrolls report continuing to boost the dollar ahead of tonight’s FOMC minutes release, the euro has been pushed to as low as 1.4014 Tuesday morning. We’re likely to be in a narrow range (1.410 – 1.4050) up until the minutes come out at 18:00GMT. The likelihood is that the minutes will dampen expectations of a further rate cut in October, especially given Friday’s boost in employment, so we should see the dollar try to take out 1.40 this evening and if it pushes below 1.3980, we could see a decline right back to 1.39, even tonight. If the minutes are favourable towards the greenback and the currency fails to take advantage – i.e. does not break or hold below 1.40, then we could witness the sort of negative sentiment backlash that we saw on Friday, with the euro bouncing strongly back up to 1.41. The biggest danger to the dollar this evening is if the Fed minutes reflect a serious downg...
More About: Currency , Focus
Bob's Currency Focus - 12:00 GMT
2007-10-08 13:59:00
EUR/USDThe fundamentals influenced this morning as Friday’s rather positive US payroll report saw the dollar rally and push the euro back down towards 1.4080. Monday is a holiday in the US and we should be range-bound within Friday’s limits of 1.4032 to 1.4156 today, with the bias to the downside. The Fed are unlikely to cut rates later this month and indeed they could remain on hold for the remainder of the year as the prospects of a major US economic calamity appear to be receding. The dollar is clearly undervalued and with a slowing euro economy, EUR/USD may have a significant top in place at 1.4280. The euro offers little value close to 1.42 and any rallies near to this level will offer an attractive selling opportunity. We are sure to see institutional buying close to 1.40, and buying close to this level with stops just below 1.40 will be popular. With the prospects of a more meaningful correction improving for the dollar, selling down on failed upside rallies from around t...
More About: Currency , Focus
Bob's Currency Focus - Friday
2007-10-05 18:39:00
Payrolls are good, yet the Dollar sinksToday was one of those crazy trading days where logic went out the window. Dollar supporters were praying for a good nonfarm number to boost the chances of a short-term dollar recovery. The number was better than expected and when one takes into account the fact that August’s -4k number was revised to +89K, one would think that this was mega news to push the dollar significantly higher. After all, the Fed cut interest rates by 0.5% last month, on foot of the then reported -4K jobs contraction. Markets had anticipated 100k new jobs in September and got 110k plus a net +94k thanks to the revision for August.EUR/USD plummeted to 1.4032 from 1.4130 before staging a Lazarus-like recovery to rally to a current 1.4150. Why? If anybody knows, answers please on a postcard to the above address. Why the earlier moves this week, if there is no follow through when there is actual hard evidence to support the dollar? It may be that major players have remai...
More About: Currency , Friday , Focus
Bob's Currency Focus
2007-10-04 18:13:00
Thursday Oct 4: 16:00EuroThe euro has rebounded to 1.4140 having hit a low of 1.4066 as markets grappled with the meaning of the ECB policy statement Thursday. Traders are positioning themselves ahead of the critical US payroll report 12:30GMT Friday which is going to determine the dollar’s immediate fate and today’s price swings may only prove to be temporary. The euro also fell against sterling today, going as low as 0.6910 before bouncing back to 0.6925. The ECB look set to stay on hold for the remainder of they year and with Trichet iterating downside risks to euro economic growth in the medium term, the euro may well struggle to recapture the 1.42 level against the dollar unless we see a poor non-farm number from the US Friday. With carry trade appetite on the up, the euro could hit 1.65 against the yen today. EUR/CAD is the one cross that offers some medium term upside value, having hit a low of 1.4050 today.GBPSterling firmed after the Bank of England kept rates unchanged...
More About: Currency , Focus
Central Bank Outlook: ECB & BoE
2007-10-02 16:44:00
ECB: October 4Members of the ECB’s monetary policy committee find themselves in an unenviable position with political pressure on the back of a rapidly rising euro, uncertainty about the euro zone economic outlook, credit market problems and rising euro zone inflation all in the mix, when the MPC sits down to deliberate on its monthly policy statement on October 4th. The only thing that seems certain is that the ECB will leave interest rates unchanged at 4% but markets will be listening closely to what the Bank ’s President – Jean Claude Trichet has to say when he gives his press conference after the rate announcement. After the last meeting in September smart money was on one more rate hike before the end of the year, probably to come in December next. The ECB may still decide to signal such a likelihood this Thursday, in its pursuit of price stability (September is the first time inflation has risen above the ECB’s 2% comfort zone since August 2006 - a 2.1% preliminary infl...
More About: Outlook , Central , Central Bank
128712 blogs in the directory.
Statistics resets every week.


Contact | About
© Blog Toplist 2017