Stock Market PrognosticatorStock Market PrognosticatorAn alternative view of events in today's financial markets with an emphasis on Value and Contrarian Investing Articles
Sub Prime Primer
2008-02-18 19:25:00 One of the funniest things I have read in a long time: Sub Prime Primer (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.)
Community Bank Conference
2008-02-15 16:11:00 I attended the Supercommunity Bank Conference earlier this week, and here are some of the things that I learned at the conference: 1) The conference was very "unattended" and somber. This was... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.) More About: Community
Festival of Stocks # 75 - February 11, 2008
2008-02-11 12:59:00 I am happy to present the Festival of Stocks for this week. This is the third time I hosted it, and I hope to do it again some day. Super Saver pans the MSFT-YHOO merger in his post at Microsoft... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.) More About: February , 2008
Conference Time
2008-02-10 15:24:00 I've decided to personally investigate the credit crunch so tomorrow I am heading to Atlanta to attend the Super-Community Bank Conference . This organization holds five regional conferences every... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.) More About: Time
Once Again - What Credit Crunch?
2008-02-10 15:13:00 A poll conducted by the the National Federation of Independent Business in December 2007, came out with some surprising results: "The net percent of owners reporting loans harder to get in recent... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.) More About: Credit , Crunch
Credit Crunch?
2008-02-07 16:07:00 So is there really a "credit crunch" out there? What of these two facts: Warren Buffett, the billionaire investor said "money is still available and reduced interest rates make it quite cheap." Two... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.) More About: Credit , Crunch
MBIA vs. Ackman
2008-02-05 16:25:00 During its mammoth fourth quarter conference call that lasted 4 hours, MBIA took a shot at William Ackman: "One other side benefit from our decision to accept questions only in writing. We clearly... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.)
Auction Rate Securities Bite Again
2008-02-04 14:18:00 Another company has taken a write down as a result of holdings in its investment portfolio. This time the company was Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY). We wrote about the problems with these auction rate... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.) More About: Auction , Securities , Rate , Bite
Dugan Speech
2008-02-01 17:23:00 John C. Dugan is the Comptroller of the Currency, and yesterday he gave a speech to the Florida Bankers Association. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) is but one of five regulators... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.) More About: Speech
Commercial Mortgage Delinquencies Head Up
2008-02-01 17:11:00 Delinquency rates on Commercial Mortgage s steadily increased during 2007, according to recent reports from several different groups. According to Foresight Analytics, rates were: 4Q-07 - 1.7%... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.) More About: Head
Capital Southwest Corp (CSWC)
2008-01-31 17:05:00 I have written about Capital Southwest Corp (CSWC) before in this post: May 15, 2007 Today, CSWC reported net assets at December 31, 2007 of $541,924,018, equivalent to $139.34 per share. This was... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.)
Is Google Recession Proof?
2008-01-30 14:02:00 I've seen this question a couple of times in some other blogs. Here is what Yahoo said about the question of ad search revenues being resistant to any economic downturn. Question "What kind of... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.) More About: Google , Proof , Recession
Countrywide Earnings
2008-01-29 15:44:00 Countrywide Financial (CFC) just reported what will probably be its last quarter as an independent company. I won't rehash all the losses and write offs that were detailed in the press release, but... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.) More About: Earnings , Countrywide
The Case for Financials
2008-01-22 17:12:00 I want to make the case for starting to put some money to work in Financial stocks. Please don't jump all over me before you read this. Here is the thesis: 1) The Federal Reserve has finally... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.) More About: Case
More Bad News
2008-01-22 14:56:00 The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was just released and it showed a −0.91 reading in December, down from −0.29 in November. All four broad categories of indicators made negative contributions... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.) More About: News , Bad News
Circuit Breakers
2008-01-22 13:47:00 I hope it doesn't come to this today, but here are the circuit breakers in place for the NYSE for the first quarter of 2008. In the event of a 1350 point decline in the DJIA (10 percent): If this... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.) More About: Circuit , Breakers
Bank of America Earnings
2008-01-22 13:24:00 I just finished reading the press release from Bank of America on its earnings, and found this paragraph to be the most interesting: "The company incurred about $400 million in losses to support... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.) More About: Bank of America , Earnings
Futures Down 466?
2008-01-22 00:06:00 Dow futures are now down 466, the NASDAQ down 75 and the S and P 500 down 65. Tuesday morning will be something. (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.) More About: Futures
Futures down 350?
2008-01-21 18:02:00 I turned on the Fox Business Network this morning just to see what was going on overseas, and noticed that the futures market in the United States was down 350 points this morning. I am hoping that... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.) More About: Futures
The Next Shoe to Drop?
2008-01-18 15:34:00 Bank failures are at a historical low, with only three in 2007, and none in 2005 and 2006. The chart below shows bank failures as calculated by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) since... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.) More About: Shoe , Drop
"No Mas"
2008-01-17 20:46:00 I have just one thing to say about this market - and that is "No mas." That famous and disputed line supposedly uttered by Roberto Duran in the eighth round of the second Sugar Ray Leonard - Roberto... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.)
Baltic Dry Index
2008-01-17 01:49:00 The Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI), which is a daily index made up of 22 key dry bulk routes recorded by the Baltic Exchange in London has taken quite a fall the last two weeks. It is still way... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.)
JP Morgan vs. Citigroup
2008-01-16 14:49:00 If you take a look at the capital ratios of the these two banks, it speaks volumes about what is going on. These numbers are preliminary but here they are: Citigroup Tier 1 Capital Ratio -... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.) More About: Morgan
Citigroup Fourth Quarter is not a Kitchen Sink
2008-01-15 14:12:00 Citigroup reported its earnings this morning and the stock is bouncing around like crazy. It was up about $0.50 right after the press release came out and then it tanked and went down as much as 3%... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.) More About: Kitchen , Citigroup , Quarter
Scary Chart of the Day - January 14, 2008
2008-01-13 22:39:00 I saw this chart over the weekend courtesy of the people at Calculated Risk. It shows the number of estimated homeowners with no equity given different scenarios of home price declines in 2008 . (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.) More About: January , Scary , Chart
Foreclosure City
2008-01-09 13:40:00 A great heat map of foreclosures by county courtesy of Mathhew Yglesias and a blog called Grasping Reality with Both Hands. It's a little too small and hard to read but I think you get the point. (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.) More About: Foreclosure , City
Pie in the Sky Optimism?
2008-01-08 02:35:00 This outlook on Commercial Real Estate from Grubb & Ellis Co. and Jones Lang LaSalle Inc reminds me of the optimism that residential brokers were displaying a year ago, when they predicted "a slight... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.) More About: Optimism
Cash Rich Technology Stocks
2008-01-07 21:13:00 B. Riley, a boutique small cap investment firm, just released its third annual list of cash rich technology stocks. The first two lists provided a decent return, so I wanted to break down the... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.) More About: Technology , Stocks , Rich , Cash
I Just Don't Get It
2008-01-05 14:39:00 So here is what I don't get. The United States economy is slowing down, the extent of which is unknown, but certainly below its trend line growth of 3%. The consumer, which powered the economy, is... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.)
Non Farm Payrolls
2008-01-04 16:21:00 We all know that non farm payrolls disappointed a little this morning, so I won't comment too much on this. Here is a chart of the one month change: During the last recession, the one month change... (Please click on the title above to read the rest of the post.) More About: Farm |
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