Investment Ideas by Yaser AnwarInvestment Ideas by Yaser AnwarThe objective of this blog is to provide investment ideas that would outperform the market. The way i do this would be to dissect macroeconomic trends & fundamentals, investor perceptions alongside fundamental & technical analysis that shape the unde Articles
Monday Edition- Historical Analysis of The Volatility Index (VIX)
2007-03-05 06:02:00 This week I'd like to present a Historic al Analysis of The Volatility Index to help you answer- "To Buy or Not To Buy?""Should we buy the dip or wait for a bigger correction?" is the question most investors have been asking themselves, given the precipitous decline of the markets this past week. During the week's special report I talked about a little history, today I'd like to talk about some more. Analyzing the trends of the past 50 years in S&P, I came across results which look bullish.When a decline of 2% or greater occurs, markets have generally rebounded smartly within a week of sharp daily pullbacks, with a large-cap bias. When markets have declined 3% or greater, S&P has been up three months later with a probability of 80% of the time.With the Volatility Index closing around 18, a historical analysis of the most recent correction (prior to Tuesday), May '06, the VIX tested the 20 level till July, alongside bull markets of the 90s and since '03, every time the VIX h... More About: Edit , Stor
Blogging Troubles
2007-03-05 06:00:00 I'm having lots of troubles with the blogger since the weekend has started. I've lost the features of the compose section of my blog (i.e. images, upload, fonts etc). They just seem to have disappeared. Can anyone advise me? I tried the Blog ger in 3 different browsers, still no luck. Hopefully it will get sorted out, 'cause I don't want the hassles of switching blogs.Yaser More About: Blogging , Blogg
Two Screening Strategies: Buyouts & Growth Stocks
2007-03-02 06:04:00 Here are a couple of pointers I've developed for finding stocks in the following two criteria.Simple Buyout Screen -) Search for companies that generate enough cash from operations to pay an 8% interest rate on the debt needed to buy the company at today's enterprise value (equity market value plus total debt outstanding minus cash on the balance sheet).Look for for companies with steady cash flows, good balance sheets and a low valuation - exactly what value investors and buy out funds are looking for in making investments.For example: A company with $100 million market cap and $10 million in debt would need to generate $8.8 million in cash from operations ($110 x 8% = $8.8 million interest expense) to take itself private.This calculation doesn't assume a premium needs to be paid for the stock, that no equity needs to be injected into the deal (just straight debt), and I make no tax adjustment for the additional interest expense that the company can write off on their bill to Un... More About: Stocks , Strategies , Stock , Growth
Special Report: Market Breadth, Yen Carry-Trade & The Trades
2007-02-28 06:02:00 The extreme market conditions warrant a special report that talks about: 1) Market Breadth, 2) Yen Carry-Trade & 3) The Trades (if a correction ensues)It started of in China, which saw a 9% decline. Although this move had nothing to do directly with the Yen carry-trade (China has closed capital accounts, which means you can’t move money in and out of the country freely).That said, it doesn’t take much to make investors nervous. So when many people who've borrowed in Yen and invested in higher yielding Pounds and Global Equities & Bonds decide to cut the size of their positions, you tend to get extreme moves like we’re seeing today.Volatility Index (VIX) jumped 63% to 18.27 on the market weakness. Long-story-Short, the market was coming off a complacent recent peak, where the Volatility Index (VIX) had just hit under the 10 level about a week ago, near all-time lows. When no one expects any volatility is precisely when the contrarian should expect the opposite, in this cas... More About: Report , Port , Read
Analyzing Nordstorm (JWN)
2007-02-27 06:02:00 JWN posted Q4 results of $0.89 vs. $0.69 last year, a 29% YoY increase in EPS, thanks to a strong holiday quarter and a strong year. For JWN, the women’s apparel division put the pedal to the medal alongside JWN's designer strategy kept paying off.While results were a penny lower than consensus, on careful inspection I found the reason being additional bonus accrual due to stellar 06 performance as well as a 50% appreciation in stock price over the past 52-weeks.With the stock down 5%+ after hours, The Street viewed guidance for 07 as disappointing, but the pro-forma number was in line with consensus. In my opinion, the forward guidance was probably viewed as weak, for an otherwise stellar quarter.However, JWN's management has a knack of being quite conservative. Management's conservatism is evident by; comp guidance, which was was higher than it has been historically. Also, JWN's pretax margin target was raised to 13%-14% from 12.5%-13% (keep in mind, JWN achieved 12.9% in 06... More About: Storm , Stor , Nord , Anal
New Posting Policy
2007-02-27 06:01:00 Dear Readers,I may/will be posting just 3-4 times a week from now on. It is quite time consuming to read through reporting companies' conference call transcript, results and then writing an analysis.Before school hadn't be as tough as it will as I progress into the final years, also with a couple of my other projects I'm finding it increasingly difficult to make time for the blog.That said, 'The Monday Edition' will always be there as its an institutional service, and it may be every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Not sure. I don't think I'll have a fixed schedule of when to post, when I get time I might even do 'em daily, but not sure, as I wouldn't want the content quality to be compromised (especially as my internship, once I settle on an offer, comes closer as there is also the possibility to be restricted blogging during it).Thanks for taking time out to read the posts, I hope they add value to you. This blog would be NOTHING WITHOUT YOU!Best Wishes,Yaser More About: Post , Policy , Sting , Poli , Posti
The Monday Edition- Subprime Effects On Employment & Implications of Ge
2007-02-26 06:02:00 Subprime Effect sOver the past two weeks subprime lenders have taken a turn for the worse, giving the bears the chance to argue once again that consumer spending is going to dwindle. Historically and in the trailing twelve months, consumer expenditures have lead to 8-10% annual growth in real consumer spending not equity withdrawal extraction.Furthermore, Mortgage Bankers Association says that 35% of homeowners own their homes outright, while 47% have fixed rate mortgages. Only 6% are subprime borrowers with adjustable-rate mortgages.Hence, its hard to fathom that consumers are near the end of spending just 'cause of a slowdown in home equity extraction, and it seems unlikely that further subprime problems will derail the consumer spending.You will agree with me that job growth is the most important factor behind consumer spending. Jobless claims reversed a big chunk of their prior spike with a 27K fall in the Feb. 17 week to 332K vs 325 expected. Looking to Network with People in t... More About: Cat , Men , Employment , Edit
OneOption - Open House
2007-02-25 02:56:00 To celebrate it's one year anniversary, One Opti on is having an open house Mon - Wed (Feb 26-28). Registration is not required, just come to the site and start viewing the research reports.The performance for each of the reports will be available. Two of the services are up over 50% in 10 months and they both had put positions to reduce market risk. The track records include a link back to the original report so that you can review each trade and the entry/exit strategiesDo check it out, thanks.Full Disclosure: This is not a paid advertisement nor am I affiliated with One Option, the blog has just been insightful, so thought I'd inform readers about it.Thanks. More About: House , Open , Open House , Ouse
SSCC Chart Analysis: 1.5 year, 6 month and 3 month
2007-02-23 08:28:00 This is a 1.5 yr chart of SSCC. Do you notice a significant, or somewhat significant, move every 3 months? There are 8 instances and in 5 of them there has been a significant move up or down. Can we say SSCC trends every 3 months? HmmSSCC has been a complete breakout. I checked out the fundiz, don't look all that, just fine. However, the price action is telling something else. What worries me is the downward sloping OBV, has the trend changed? There is a good probability that SSCC will retrace to the 62% level.SSCC has had it all in the past few months. From a double bottom to a head and shoulders pattern to a break out. What's next?When OBV and the stock pulled back last time, it would have been a good buying opportunity, around 10-11$ level. Now a similar situation might be occurring at $12.25-12.5, do we buy the dip? or wait for a retracement to 62% level? I'm confused, what do you reckon?Thanks to Wes for informing me about SSCC. More About: Analysis , Hart , Chart , Year , Month
Fundamental & Technical Analysis of Microsemi (MSCC)
2007-02-23 06:01:00 In the Tech 07 conference, MSCC's management stated that business remains robust and enjoys strong business trends across the board. From commercial aerospace, satellite to defense, all witnessing solid demand. In commercial air, which is 20% of MSCC's sales, there is Boeing's commercial aircraft backlog, which is growing solidly, from 440 07 to 515 aircrafts in 08, up 17%.I like MSCC given its solid growth prospects in defense equipment, medical devices, and LCD TVs, and also its diversified revenue streams, its pricing benefits from military customers, and its stability dynamics. Looking to Network with People in the Financial Industry | Connect with me on Linked In or email me yaser AT yaseranwar.com | Microsemi's analog business, similar to the industry, has experienced challenging short-term fundamentals due to excess inventory situation. Management is particularly upbeat in opportunities related to LCD TV and emerging new power management offerings.While fundamentally MSC... More About: Fun , Mental , Technical , Analysis
Analyzing Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)
2007-02-21 06:30:00 HPQ posted results above expectation with revenues of $25.1 billion and EPS of $0.65 vs Street estimates of $24.3 billion and $0.62. HP’s PC growth far exceeded IDC’s estimates of 7.3% for the December Q and overall 9.5% for last year, with market share rising by 140 bps.From an earnings view, HPQ was in full throttle, beating Street estimates in all divisions. PC revenues were a highlight, with 19% YoY and 17% YoY revenue growth despite worries of a slowdown ahead of the Vista launch.Region wise, both Europe, up 14% YoY, and Asia, up 15% YoY, witnessed revenue growth accelerating. US revenue growth came in at 4% YoY, thanks to strength in consumer revenues.HPQ's upside came from strength in PSG and TSG divisions revenues and operating margins. IPG revenue was up 7% YoY, with operating margins up 15% QoQ. Improved margins were driven by supplies growth acceleration to 11%. In PSG, HPQ's revenue growth accelerated to 17% YoY vs 10% last Q, driven by strong PC unit growth, espec... More About: Hewlett-Packard , Kard , Hewlett Packard , Pack , Packard
Win A Copy of 'Financial Fine Print: Uncovering a Company's True Value'
2007-02-21 06:28:00 I'm proud to announce that 3 lucky readers can win a copy of an excellent book, 'Financial Fine Print : Uncovering a Comp any 's True Value', by the famous Footnoted author, Michelle Leder.To win a copy, please answer the following Qs:1) Which popular web show recently had an interview with Michelle Leder?2) Tell me two "How-to's" mentioned on Michelle's blog3) Which publication labeled Footnoted in the '50 Coolest Websites'?Please email me your answers, no comments accepted. More About: Ring
Interview With Steven Drobny- President, Drobny Global Advisors & Autho
2006-11-17 06:01:00 An in-depth discussion pertaining to; Hedge Fund Industry- Implications of M&A boom on Hedge Funds, HFs as Asset Managers, Industry's Marketing Gimmicks, Risk/Reward Trade-offs, Regulation and Correlation to market. Investment banks taking positions in China, Emerging markets and more.Steve n Drobny is the engine behind Drobny Global Advisors. Steven has pushed the firm to new business areas, countries and clients bases. If you want to know who's who or what's what in global macro, ask Steven. To learn more about global macro hedge funds, read his book Inside the House of Money.Before partnering with his namesake in 2000 (his name was already on the door!), Steven worked for Deutsche Bank in various roles, most recently in the Hedge Fund Group in London. While at DB, Steven also worked in the derivatives and trading groups in London, Zurich and Singapore. Prior to Deutsche, Steve was with AIG Trading in their Metals & Energy Trading Groups.Steven Drobny also holds a Masters degree... More About: President , Inter , Interview , With
Interview With Andy Kessler, Former Morgan Stanley Tech. & Inst. Invest
2006-11-03 06:00:00 Ever since the Tech bubble in 2000, the market has seen resurgence in venture capital investing. In 2006 alone, there were more VC investments made than the sum of 2001 to 2005. Will this trend continue?To talk about this trend and other industry related topics such as; Venture Capital Industry's Outlook, Intel & AMD Price Wars, The Next Phase In Online Innovation, Google's YouTube Acquisition, What To Look For When Buying Small-Cap Companies & Andy’s latest book, The End of Medicine etc., I conducted an interview with Andy Kessler, Former Morgan Stanley Technology & Institutional Investor ranked "All-Star" Analyst, highly successfully Hedge Fund Manager & Author of New York Times Bestseller, Running Money.Wall Street Talk with Yaser AnwarGuest: Andy Kessler, Author ‘The End of Medicine’______________________________ __________Y: Andy, thank you for taking time out for this interview. What have you been up to lately?AK: My latest book The End of Medicine came out July 3, ... More About: Inter , Interview , With
Best Hedge Fund Blogs
2006-11-02 02:00:00 We've been hearing so much about hedge funds of late- from CNBC to WSJ, Main Street to Congress (and yeah myself!). While everybody is entitled to their opinion, I thought I'd present the links which provide the latest scoop and best insights on the hedge fund industry.1) FT's Alphaville- Paul Murphy, Helen Thomas & Jeff Wagner (Update 4:45 AM- Added HT & JW, since I forgot to include them as part of the editorial team.)2) NYT Deal Book- Andrew Ross Sorkin3) Information Arbitrage- Roger Ehrenberg (Deutsche Bank Alumni)4) Hedge Fund Daily TV- Sara Eisen5) Fintag- Finbar Taggit REMOVED (Update March 20th, 07)6) Hedge Fund Street- Priya Jestin7) Hedge Fund Focus- Jacob Bettany8) All About Alpha- "Alpha Male" (UPDATE 1240 PM- Thanks to Helen Thomas for the referral)That's it for now. If you know any good hedge fund-only blogs, leave a comment.For the third edition of 'Wall Street Talk with Yaser Anwar' I've got the candidate, and yes you guessed it- he is in the hedge fund busine... More About: Blogs , Best , Edge , Logs
Interview With Roger Ehrenberg, Former CEO of Deutsche Bank Advisors and Ma
2006-10-27 06:00:00 It used to be that investment bankers generated a majority of the revenue at the banks & brokerage houses, but ever since the collapse of the Tech bubble in 2000, we have seen a shift to trading desks generating majority of the revenue versus the investment banking division.To talk about this shift and other industry related topics such as; Derivatives, Risk Controls & Hedge Funds, I conducted an interview with Roger Ehrenberg, former CEO of Deutsch e Bank Advisors, wholly-owned subsidiary of Deutsche Bank , and Managing Director at Citigroup.Roger led a 130-person team that managed over $6 billion in capital through a twenty-strategy hedge fund platform with offices in New York, London and Hong Kong. Strategies deployed included managed futures, statistical arbitrage, merger arbitrage, event, fundamental long/short, systematic long/short, relative value, special situations, convertible arbitrage, foreign exchange and credit.Roger currently runs Monitor 110, which aims to aid institut... More About: Inter , Interview , With
Top 5 Institutional Shareholders of Apple (As of J...
2006-10-10 22:30:03 Fidelity Management & Research- 57 milAlliance Bernstein- 50 milBarclays Global Investors- 34 milState Street Global Advisors- 22 milVanguard- 21.5 milI know this is way to late, but it was just brought to my attention through a friend, hence better late than never. I hope it still adds some value, thanks. More About: Apple , Shareholders , Institutional , Share , Shareholder
Emerging Market & Commodities Effect and Global Op...
2006-10-09 10:18:02 The Emerging Mark et s & Commodities Effect The overflow activity has not been unique to emerging markets funds. Commodity and energy funds have taken in an estimated $100 billion+ of investor money in the past couple of years.This had generated speculative activity, some of which has recently been unwound, taking a couple of hedge funds down in the fray. Ex: Amaranth, MotherRock & huge losses at Vega & Fidelity funds.Money flows into natural resource funds have climbed from almost nothing to roughly $3.0 billion, on a monthly basis, in early 2006. Not surprisingly, some metals prices have seen extraordinary moves. Any trouble in the commodity markets could translate into problems for emerging markets and small & mid-caps. WSJ recently had an article on HFs taking positions in resource rich Afrian countries.Investors should note that: there is a close relationship between emerging markets and commodity prices, and there is... More About: Global
Featured Quotes In The Wall Street Journal
2006-10-08 22:18:02 Featured on September 6th, 2006 at 3:24 pmFeatured on July 26th, 2006 at 11:24 am More About: Journal , Wall Street , Feature , Quotes , Street
Implications Of Ban On Poker & How To Profit From It
2006-10-07 10:06:02 If you live in the US, you won?t be able to play online poker anymore. Poker is one of my favorite games, and I enjoy playing online. It?s lucrative, too. I?ve won several thousand dollars over the past few years playing online poker. This week, Congress passed legislation that will prevent me from playing any more online poker. The law could take effect in less than two weeks? time. I?m angry about this. I think it?s a massive violation of my freedom. On the other hand, if I?m reading the situation correctly, we can use this turn of events to our financial advantage through a simple investment in the stock market. Lawmakers tacked the legislation onto a bill about port security. The legislation prevents credit card companies and payment processors from doing business with Internet gaming companies. It?s a done deal. George Bush?s signature is all that?s needed to make it official. One report said he?d sign it in two weeks. Even if a payment processor could g... More About: How To , Cat , Profit , Prof
No Soft Landing for Housing
2006-10-06 16:00:07 Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke admits that the housing market is going through a "substantial correction" right now. That?s far from the tune the Fed was hinting earlier in the year when it said a soft landing was probable. "It seems pretty clear now that the U.S. housing market is cooling," Bernanke said in May. "Our assessment at this point . . . is that this looks to be a very orderly and moderate kind of cooling." Yesterday, though, Bernanke relented, calling the decline in housing "one of the major drags causing the economy to slow now" and that the slowdown could shave as much as 1 percent off the nation?s growth in the second half of 2006 and "probably" impact growth in 2007. "I think I would estimate that slowing housing construction will probably take about a percentage point off growth in the second half of the year and probably something going into next year as well," Bernanke said. Bernanke made his remarks after a speech to the Economic Cl... More About: Housing , Soft , Sing , Land , Landing
06 NAV Estimates of Oil Exploration & Production Companies B
2006-10-03 09:42:03 Source: Credit Suisse Research More About: Companies , Product , Comp , Oil , Estima
Analyzing Key Trends & Outperformers (JPM, BAC & WFC) In The
2006-09-30 09:18:02 Key Trend s - Banks continue to add to mortgages and securities in 3Q, but not as aggressively as last quarter. Loan growth continues to slow, and I found banks adding securities as Fed data shows that residential mortgages were up 10% annualized vss up 9% in 2Q and investment securities are up 8% annualized vs. up 27% in 2Q. Implying a weighted average growth of 8% annualized vs last quarter vs 19% in 2Q. Key trends in 3Q are likely to be large Net Interest Margin compression , slowing commercial loan growth, weak deposit trends, and good expense control. Consumer credit quality should show signs of deterioration, but I do not expect large uptick in credit costs. Investors should keep a close eye on continued yield curve flattening. According to Bloomberg, the average spread between the fed funds and the 3yr swap rate has fallen to 9bp in 3Q which compares to 54bp in 2Q. However, the average spread between fed funds and the 10 year in 3Q is a negative 35bp which comp... More About: Form , Ends , Performer
Industrial Metals Outlook
2006-09-28 03:00:05 Prices for industrial metals, adjusted for inflation, are closely correlated to global industrial activity. Inflation-adjusted industrial-metals prices were in a bear market from 1989 to 2001, when prices plunged 62%. Since then, real metals prices have doubled, although the gains have been off a low base. In fact, over the last 20 years, real metals prices have only increased 1.2% annually. Today?s high metals prices may not be supported by fundamentals; G7 industrial production has tapered off after rebounding from its 2001 lows. While industrial growth outside the G7, particularly in China, is helping to boost demand for industrial metals, the prices may be too high, especially if demand declines amid rising global interest rates. More About: Metal , Outlook , Industria , Industrial , Industrial Metal
Analyzing Oracle & Profiting From Long ORCL/Short SAP Spread
2006-09-28 03:00:05 Oracle reported non-GAAP total revenues of $3.7 billion, 26% YoY, which was above street estimates. Results were driven by another quarter of solid applications license growth, upto +80% YoY and an unexpectedly strong contribution from database technology +15% YoY.On an organic basis, Oracle reported applications growth of 47% YoY, after posting over 50% growth & over 30% growth in 3Q of 06, hence Oracle has turned a corner with their applications business .Siebel license revenue of $32 million was a bit below analyst expectations and the overall applications license revenue of $228 million was below The Streets $231 million estimate.However, Oracle continues to see very strong growth in their middleware products, +56% YoY, and database license revenues accelerated to 10% YoY growth, pushing the total database technology license line to $565 million +15% YoYORCL also noted they would no longer be breaking out the contributions of database and middleware in this revenue line going fo... More About: Oracle , Profit , Read , Prof , Long
Why The Market Has Been Rallying
2006-09-27 08:54:04 1) As the overall market has risen, there have been very few earnings warnings. In a bull market the Nasdaq usually leads the other indexes. The Nasdaq has been boosted by strong earnings in Oracle investors expect to see the Dow march to 12,000. 6) In the end, the sentiment coming into September was also negative. With short interest close to 5 year highs, that also sparked a contrarian rally. More About: Market , Rally , Lying , Mark , Been
Analyzing Oracle & Profiting From Long ORCL/Short SAP Spread
2006-09-27 08:54:04 Oracle reported non-GAAP total revenues of $3.7 billion, 26% YoY, which was above street estimates. Results were driven by another quarter of solid applications license growth, upto +80% YoY and an unexpectedly strong contribution from database technology +15% YoY. On an organic basis, Oracle reported applications growth of 47% YoY, after posting over 50% growth go long Oracle. This way More About: Oracle , Profit , Read , Prof , Long
Industrial Metals Outlook
2006-09-27 08:54:04 Prices for industrial metals, adjusted for inflation, are closely correlated to global industrial activity. Inflation-adjusted industrial-metals prices were in a bear market from 1989 to 2001, when prices plunged 62%. Since then, real metals prices have doubled, although the gains have been off a low base. In fact, over the last 20 years, real metals prices have only increased 1.2% annually. More About: Metal , Outlook , Industria , Industrial , Industrial Metal
Insider Buying At Eagle Materials (EXP) & Selling At Illinoi
2006-09-27 08:54:04 Insider BUYING Eagle Mate rials (EXP) | Date of Transaction- 9/19/06 | Average Price- $35.2 The market reacted quite positively to this move, climbing more than 15% since then. So what does it bode for the stock? Laurence Hirsch of EXP has made a huge bet that commercial property seems to be on a different level than the housing market. How big a bet? $14+ million, equivalent to approximately More About: Buying , Selling , Inside
The QQQQ Report for September 25th - September 29th, 2006
More articles from this author:2006-09-27 08:54:04 ChartAdvisor says over the past few weeks, the QQQQ was able to move above the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. We also noted that the bulls were able to send the index above the resistance of its 200 DMA, which many believe is the first major step in correcting the long-term downtrend that was predicted by the bearish moving average crossover. As you can see from the chart More About: Report , Port , Repo , September , Sept 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 |
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