Investment Ideas by Yaser Anwar

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Four Questions Investors Should Ask In This Market Climate
2006-09-27 08:54:04
At this point the market outlooks have become so divergent that two camps have formed a) The Gloom widening corporate spreads in the fixed income markets, are indicative of growth peaks. As such it is prudent for investors to take a more defensive, market neutral stance. UPDATE 0835 **The ZEW Financial Market Survey is a monthly survey among 350 financial analysts and institutional investors in
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Time Sensitive Trade Of The Day- Quick Note On Tobacco Indus
2006-09-27 08:54:04
Today is a BIG day for the Toba cco industry. A federal court judge is expected to rule Monday on whether to grant class-action certification to a racketeering lawsuit filed against Philip Morris USA (owned by Altria, MO) and several other light cigarette makers. This could lead to a rally in ths industry or viceversa. Two ways you can play this news: 1) Go long on Altria (MO) 30%($2700)
More About: Time , Note , Trade , Quick

The Search For Oil Is On
2006-09-27 08:54:04
This past week I talked about how I expect Devon Energy to benefit from the recent oil discovery. Well the Journal went one step further and highlighted how the energy honchos are on the look for the next big find. The discovery of oil 20K feet below the sea floor of the Gulf of Mexico by Chevron, Devon Energy, and Statoil two weeks ago may just spark an ?oil rush? to find crude in deep
More About: Search , Oil

1 In 5 Flippers Losing Money
2006-09-27 08:54:04
There was a fascinating report from Home Smart Reports.com today about how flippers are losing money hand over fist. One out of five flippers who sold a home from April to June of this year lost money on the deal, says Home Smart Reports . That?s the highest ratio of losses in two and a half years. ?In all but four of the last 23 quarters, the flippers who lost money lost a greater amount than
More About: Money , Sing , Flip

Insider Buying At Eagle Materials (EXP) & Selling At Illinoi
2006-09-26 14:51:01
Insider BUYING Eagle Mate rials (EXP) | Date of Transaction- 9/19/06 | Average Price- $35.2 The market reacted quite positively to this move, climbing more than 15% since then. So what does it bode for the stock? Laurence Hirsch of EXP has made a huge bet that commercial property seems to be on a different level than the housing market. How big a bet? $14+ million, equivalent to approximately
More About: Buying , Selling , Inside

Four Questions Investors Should Ask In This Market Climate
2006-09-25 08:42:01
At this point the market outlooks have become so divergent that two camps have formed a) The Gloom widening corporate spreads in the fixed income markets, are indicative of growth peaks. As such it is prudent for investors to take a more defensive, market neutral stance.
More About: Question , Questions , Market , Climate , This

The QQQQ Report for September 25th - September 29th, 2006
2006-09-25 08:42:01
ChartAdvisor says over the past few weeks, the QQQQ was able to move above the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. We also noted that the bulls were able to send the index above the resistance of its 200 DMA, which many believe is the first major step in correcting the long-term downtrend that was predicted by the bearish moving average crossover. As you can see from the chart
More About: Report , Port , Repo , September , Sept

Time Sensitive Trade Of The Day- Quick Note On Tobacco Indus
2006-09-25 08:42:01
Today is a BIG day for the Toba cco industry. A federal court judge is expected to rule Monday on whether to grant class-action certification to a racketeering lawsuit filed against Philip Morris USA (owned by Altria, MO) and several other light cigarette makers. This could lead to a rally in ths industry or viceversa. Two ways you can play this news: 1) Go long on Altria (MO) 30%($2700)
More About: Time , Note , Trade , Quick

The Search For Oil Is On
2006-09-24 14:39:01
This past week I talked about how I expect Devon Energy to benefit from the recent oil discovery. Well the Journal went one step further and highlighted how the energy honchos are on the look for the next big find. The discovery of oil 20K feet below the sea floor of the Gulf of Mexico by Chevron, Devon Energy, and Statoil two weeks ago may just spark an ?oil rush? to find crude in deep
More About: Search , Oil

1 In 5 Flippers Losing Money
2006-09-24 14:39:01
There was a fascinating report from Home Smart Reports.com today about how flippers are losing money hand over fist. One out of five flippers who sold a home from April to June of this year lost money on the deal, says Home Smart Reports . That?s the highest ratio of losses in two and a half years. ?In all but four of the last 23 quarters, the flippers who lost money lost a greater amount than
More About: Money , Sing , Flip

Upgrades & Downgrades To Consider- ORCL, MS, DVN & BHP
2006-09-24 14:39:01
Oracle "strong buy" target price raised- Analysts at JMP Securities reiterate their "strong buy" rating on Oracle Corporation (ORCL), while raising their estimates for the company. The target price has been raised from $17 to $22. In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company has posted robust F1Q07 results, with EPS ahead of the estimates and the consensus.
More About: Grades , Ades , Down , Upgrades , Side

The Dow
2006-09-24 14:39:01
There are a lot of issues that are currently weighing on investors minds (i.e. weakening economy, relatively high prices, war and other geopolitical issues, etc.). Despite all these concerns, the market has managed to rally over the past few months and now trades near record highs. However, it should be noted that the Dow is also fast approaching the top of the trading channel that has been in
More About: The D

A Source For Institutional Holdings- Stock Pickr
2006-09-24 14:39:01
Recently I came across an up coming site which informs you about the latest institutional holdings. Altogether, SP has selected the 250 best mutual funds and hedge funds and added their portfolios into the stockpickr database. Additionally, they have added several new portfolios including: The Barrons 13D Filings column. Barrons points out each week the most interesting activist situations. If
More About: Source , Stock , Institutional , Holding , Pick

Oil At 6 Month Low On Inventories
2006-09-24 14:39:01
The price of a barrel of crude oil fell to six-month low below $61 today as U.S. government data shows that inventories are at healthy levels. Crude oil prices fell to $60.80 a barrel in trading in London today, reports Reuters. The Energy Department reported that distillate fuel inventories, which include heating oil, grew by a much higher than expected 4.1 million barrels to 146.7 million
More About: Oil , Tories , Tori , Vent , Inventor

Management, Brian Hunter & Investors To Blame For Amaranth A
2006-09-24 14:39:01
ADV in natural gas is approximately 11K contracts, with close to $50K per contract = $550 Million of daily turnover. OI is roughly 79K contracts with total value of just $4 Billion. What do you get? Extreme volatility. For AA to loose 50% of its assets in a week goes to show that even after debacles such as LTCM Barings. If you play with natural gas (fire), you are going to get burned,
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More On Housing, Economy & Fed
2006-09-24 14:39:01
Forbes has an interesting article warning that the housing bust will soon wreak havoc on the overall economy.The key reason worrying the Fed chairman Ben Bernanke is: the link between the economic slowdown to the end of the housing refinance market. Rates for refinancing mortgages are dramatically up ? and the US will no longer benefit from this massive consumer
More About: Economy , Housing , Sing , More , Econ

What The Market Says About Future Fed Actions
2006-09-24 14:39:01
Most investors expect the Fed, which meets this Wednesday September 20, will not raise short-term rates and will remain on ?hold?. What investors should be worried about though is; What sort of rhetoric will they speak this time? Yesterday I highlighted how the CPI is near 10-year highs, signaling inflation but The FOMC is all but certain to maintain its target for overnight federal funds at
More About: Action , Market , Future , Hat

Interest Rates Expectations
2006-09-24 14:39:01
When interest rates were reduced to 1% in the end of 2000 and start of 2001, housing had been one of the major factors in the GDP growth. As interest rates were historically low, people could afford multiple mortagages. With interest rates at 5.25% now homebuilders are reducing work forces in the line of higher interest rates. Inflation is slowly creeping up but growth has slowed materialy,
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The Dow
2006-09-22 08:27:01
There are a lot of issues that are currently weighing on investors minds (i.e. weakening economy, relatively high prices, war and other geopolitical issues, etc.). Despite all these concerns, the market has managed to rally over the past few months and now trades near record highs. However, it should be noted that the Dow is also fast approaching the top of the trading channel that has been in existence since early 2004.
More About: The D

Upgrades & Downgrades To Consider- ORCL, MS, DVN & BHP
2006-09-22 08:27:01
Oracle "strong buy" target price raised- Analysts at JMP Securities reiterate their "strong buy" rating on Oracle Corporation (ORCL), while raising their estimates for the company. The target price has been raised from $17 to $22.In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company has posted robust F1Q07 results, with EPS ahead of the estimates and the consensus. Oracle achieved 28% y/y license revenue growth during F1Q07, despite it being a seasonally weak quarter, the analysts say. The company is benefiting from large enterprise level agreements, consolidation of the enterprise software market and the sale of broader product offerings to its install base, JMP Securities adds. The non-GAAP EPS estimates for FY07 and FY08 have been raised from $0.94 to $0.97 and from $1.08 to $1.12, respectively.Morgan Stanley "market perform" estimates revised- Analyst Richard X Bove of Punk Ziegel & Co reiterates his "market perform" rating on Morgan Stanley (MS), whil...
More About: Grades , Ades , Down , Upgrades , Side

A Source For Institutional Holdings- Stock Pickr
2006-09-22 02:24:02
Recently I came across an up & coming site which informs you about the latest institutional holdings. Altogether, SP has selected the 250 best mutual funds and hedge funds and added their portfolios into the stockpickr database. Additionally, they have added several new portfolios including: The Barrons 13D Filings column. Barrons points out each week the most interesting activist situations. If those situations are correlated with your portfolio then you might see your recommendations change. As more portfolios get entered into the system, the recommendations will improve. Every day portfolios are being added and feel free to share the URL of stockpickr.com to people who you think would add value if their portfolios or watchlists were added into the system. Barrons interview with Irene Hoover. Hoover is a smallcap specialist running the Forward SmallCap fund. She has consistently outperformed the Russell 2000 over the past 13 years. SP has added her top picks into the system....
More About: Source , Stock , Institutional , Holding , Pick

Oil At 6 Month Low On Inventories
2006-09-21 08:21:02
The price of a barrel of crude oil fell to six-month low below $61 today as U.S. government data shows that inventories are at healthy levels. Crude oil prices fell to $60.80 a barrel in trading in London today, reports Reuters. The Energy Department reported that distillate fuel inventories, which include heating oil, grew by a much higher than expected 4.1 million barrels to 146.7 million barrels. That?s more than 11% above last year?s inventory levels. The market places more emphasis on distillate fuels as the winter months approach. Economists polled by Reuters were looking for an addition of 1.9 million barrels on average. Gasoline inventories inched up by 600K barrels to 207 barrels. That?s 6% above year ago levels and should spell good news for gas prices in the US Crude oil inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels to 325 million barrels. However, that?s still 5% above last year?s levels and above the five-year average of inventories. ?There is no support at all f...
More About: Oil , Tories , Tori , Vent , Inventor

Buffett Searching Israel for New Acquisitions
2006-09-20 14:15:01
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett is on the look out for new acquisitions in Israel . Buffett is set to reach Israel this Sunday for a 3 day visit. The Oracle of Omaha is scheduled to tour Tefen-based Iscar Metalworking, the company his company, Berkshire Hathaway, bought 80% of earlier this year. Iscar was Berkshire?s first acquisition outside of the US Buffett is looking to diversify his holdings outside of the U.S. Buffett is a strong believer that the value of the U.S. dollar will depreciate over the long-term. When he bought the controlling stake in Iscar, Buffett told the Israeli financial daily The Marker that he would visit Israel later in the year for a tour of Iscar and to see if there were "any other pearls out there." He told the paper, "If your readers know a company that resembles Iscar, even a little, have them call me immediately. I want to buy. Let them call me collect."
More About: Search , Acquisitions , Archi

Why Commodities Have Sold Off & How To Hedge Yourself- Part
2006-09-20 14:15:01
Commodity prices have plummeted by as much as 25% since end of July/start of August. Whether it was silver, gold or oil, they have had their fair share of losses.The reasons why you have seen such percipitous declines in commodities can be credited to:Hurricane Ernesto did not hit oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico, as expected.Iran?s refusal to comply with deadline for ceasing enrichment of uranium did not resulted in any new sanctions or military action against Iran, so far.The recent cooperation by Iran pertaining to enrichment of nuclear energy.Rise in September inventories of oil and crude to record highs, putting downward pressure on those prices and other commodities.Other than the aforementioned reasons, commodities are prone to more vigorous corrections, especially since they have been the outperformers for this bull market.The situation with the hurricanes, the War on Terror & geopolitically factors could change rapidly, at the moment it appears that commodity prices cou...
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Riding the strength in Pharma with PPH & IXJ ETFs
2006-09-20 14:15:01
After a prolonged sideways performance during the first half, the pharma sector had a strong rally in recent months, which mimicked investor rotation to recession resistant drug stocks with robust second quarter profits, and improving prospects over the coming quarters.Pharma ceutical companies like J&J, Merck, AstraZeneca, and Novartis have solid sales growth and rising stock prices.Investors can bet on this sector with exchange traded funds such as: iShares Global Healthcare (IXJ) & the Pharmaceutical HOLDRs Trust (PPH), both ETFs hit a new high this month.
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Earnings Checkpoint
2006-09-20 14:15:01
Courtesy: WSJ
More About: Earn , Check , Earnings , Point , Checkpoint

Earnings, Housing Implications On Consumers, Economic Outloo
2006-09-20 14:15:01
Analysts continue to rein-in earnings expectations after an impressive three year run of positive revisions. The decrease in earnings expectations will continue until signs emerge that global economic momentum is set improve. Further weakness is likely as a cooling US economy weighs on global growth. The offset for global stocks is that fund managers are already very bearish on both US economic growth and earnings prospects over the next 12-months, as gauged by the latest Merrill Lynch fund manager survey. The Chinese government is determined to cool its hot economy and the pace of U.S. growth is already slackening. Thus, economic sensitive industrial commodities are at risk, even though the longer-term backdrop remains supportive. Meanwhile, current high geopolitical tensions mean that the risk premium embedded in oil prices will stay elevated. From a technical perspective, oil and gas stocks are oversold relative to their metals counterparts and, thus, have some upside. T...
More About: Cat , Consumer , Earn , Housing , Earnings

Earnings, Housing Implications On Consumers, Economic Outloo
2006-09-19 08:09:01
Analysts continue to rein-in earnings expectations after an impressive three year run of positive revisions. The decrease in earnings expectations will continue until signs emerge that global economic momentum is set improve. Further weakness is likely as a cooling US economy weighs on global growth. The offset for global stocks is that fund managers are already very bearish on both US economic growth and earnings prospects over the next 12-months, as gauged by the latest Merrill Lynch fund manager survey. The Chinese government is determined to cool its hot economy and the pace of U.S. growth is already slackening. Thus, economic sensitive industrial commodities are at risk, even though the longer-term backdrop remains supportive. Meanwhile, current high geopolitical tensions mean that the risk premium embedded in oil prices will stay elevated. From a technical perspective, oil and gas stocks are oversold relative to their metals counterparts and, thus, have some...
More About: Cat , Consumer , Earn , Housing , Earnings

Earnings Checkpoint
2006-09-15 07:45:02
Courtesy: WSJ
More About: Earn , Check , Earnings , Point , Checkpoint

Buffett Searching Israel for New Acquisitions
2006-09-15 07:45:02
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett is on the look out for new acquisitions in Israel . Buffett is set to reach Israel this Sunday for a 3 day visit. The Oracle of Omaha is scheduled to tour Tefen-based Iscar Metalworking, the company his company, Berkshire Hathaway, bought 80% of earlier this year. Iscar was Berkshire?s first acquisition outside of the US Buffett is looking to diversify his holdings outside of the U.S. Buffett is a strong believer that the value of the U.S. dollar will depreciate over the long-term. When he bought the controlling stake in Iscar, Buffett told the Israeli financial daily The Marker that he would visit Israel later in the year for a tour of Iscar and to see if there were "any other pearls out there." He told the paper, "If your readers know a company that resembles Iscar, even a little, have them call me immediately. I want to buy. Let them call me collect."
More About: Search , Acquisitions , Archi