Investment Ideas by Yaser AnwarInvestment Ideas by Yaser AnwarThe objective of this blog is to provide investment ideas that would outperform the market. The way i do this would be to dissect macroeconomic trends & fundamentals, investor perceptions alongside fundamental & technical analysis that shape the unde Articles
Riding the strength in Pharma with PPH & IXJ ETFs
2006-09-14 13:42:01 After a prolonged sideways performance during the first half, the pharma sector had a strong rally in recent months, which mimicked investor rotation to recession resistant drug stocks with robust second quarter profits, and improving prospects over the coming quarters.Pharma ceutical companies like J&J, Merck, AstraZeneca, and Novartis have solid sales growth and rising stock prices.Investors can bet on this sector with exchange traded funds such as: iShares Global Healthcare (IXJ) & the Pharmaceutical HOLDRs Trust (PPH), both ETFs hit a new high this month. More About: With , Riding , Harm , Arma
Stock Upgrades & Downgrades To Consider- UBS, YHOO, FTIB & A
2006-09-13 07:36:01 UBS downgraded to ?underweight"- Analysts at JP Morgan downgrade UBS (UBS) from "neutral" to "underweight." The target price has been reduced from SF75 to SF73. In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that significant uncertainties have been created by the MiFID regulation. MiFID could lead to a structural change and UBS has significant exposure to these trends on account of its integrated business model, the analysts say. Regulatory change could negatively impact the company?s EPS by 7.2%, JP Morgan adds. The analysts believe that the quality of UBS?s investment banking division is overstated. Yahoo! upgraded to "outperform"- Analyst Jordan Rohan of RBC Capital Markets upgrades Yahoo (YHOO) to "outperform." The target price is set to $33. In a research note published yesterday, the analyst mentions that despite a slow beginning to the quarter, the company?s branded advertising is expected to rise in the current quarter. Yahoo!?s marketing budget has b... More About: Stock , Grades , Ades , Down , Upgrades
Why Commodities Have Sold Off & How To Hedge Yourself- Part
2006-09-13 07:36:01 Commodity prices have plummeted by as much as 25% since end of July/start of August. Whether it was silver, gold or oil, they have had their fair share of losses.The reasons why you have seen such percipitous declines in commodities can be credited to:Hurricane Ernesto did not hit oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico, as expected.Iran?s refusal to comply with deadline for ceasing enrichment of uranium did not resulted in any new sanctions or military action against Iran, so far.The recent cooperation by Iran pertaining to enrichment of nuclear energy.Rise in September inventories of oil and crude to record highs, putting downward pressure on those prices and other commodities.Other than the aforementioned reasons, commodities are prone to more vigorous corrections, especially since they have been the outperformers for this bull market.The situation with the hurricanes, the War on Terror & geopolitically factors could change rapidly, at the moment it appears that commodity prices cou... More About: How To , Commodities , Yourself , Self , Your
Emerging Market Outlook & How To Play It
2006-09-12 07:27:01 Capital flows to BRIC have been strong in recent years because of the widening trade surplus and strong foreign direct investment. Foreign capital is also attracted by the high domestic interest rates in countries such as Brazil.India?s current export growth of 22% is one of the highest in the emerging world. Buoyed by the export sector the GDP growth continues to exceed market expectations.In China, the authorities have been allowing faster money supply and credit growth, as investment is accelerating again. Since the summer of last year, Japanese and German export growth of machinery to China has been increasing.The developing deceleration in global growth points to lingering risks for emerging markets. However, falling unemployment and rising consumer credit growth is pushing up private consumption growth to a structurally higher level. Emerging market fundamentals indicate that share prices have not yet reached a secular top like they did in 1994. For example, the current and fo... More About: How To , Market , Outlook , Play , Mark
Featured Quotes In The WSJ, NYT, FT, National Post, TheStreet.com, Yahoo Fi
2006-09-08 21:42:00 Featured & Quoted on April 5th, 2007 at 2:17 pmFeatured & Quoted on January 8th, 2007 at 4:27 pmFeatured & Quoted on December 20th, 2006 at 1:11 pmFeatured & Quoted on December 6th, 2006 at 2:18 pmFeatured & Quoted on November 6th, 2006 at 10:36 amFeatured & Quoted on October 16th, 2006 at 11:23 amFeatured & Quoted on September 6th, 2006 at 3:24 pmFeatured & Quoted on July 26th, 2006 at 11:26 amFeatured & Quoted on November 27th, 2006Featured & Quoted on October 27th, 2006 at 1:23 pmFeatured on April 3rd, 2007 at 10:01 GMTFeatured on November 17th, 2006 at 10:13 AM GMTFeatured on October 30, 2006 Featured on November 9th, 2006Email me for TheStreet.com's citationsFeatured on Jan 11th, 2007Featured as one of the "Most Popular Stories"Front page column on TRADERS magazineOne of the highest ranked & week's best money blogQuoted on September 5th, 2006 at 2:23 pmFeatured & Quoted on October 27th, 2006 at 2:56 pmNote: This post will be updated with each new mention in The WSJ & othe... More About: Yahoo , National , Post , Quotes , Tree
The Canadian Dollar Report & Profiting From It
2006-09-08 12:57:02 Following steady moves to the upside, the C$ has drifted lower in the past week, supported by a pullback in oil & base metal prices as global growth moderates in the months ahead, which will drag down Canada?s terms of trade and undermine the C$.The C$ will find it difficult to secure strong buying interest, especially if global commodity prices weaken further, and any sustained slowdown in the US economy would also tend to damage the Canadian currency.The unfolding US and global economic slowdowns indicate the strength in C$ won?t last. A moderation in Canadian growth is inevitable given the strong correlation with the US business cycle.Canada?s manufacturing exports are already contracting as US demand softens. The Canadian economic data has been generally disappointing over the past few weeks with GDP growth slowing sharply for the second quarter while manufacturing has remained generally weak.The headline July inflation figure was distorted by the drop in sales tax with the annu... More About: Dollar , Report , Port , Profit
SAC Capital Raises Stakes in Interlink (SORC), AC Moore Arts
2006-08-30 11:48:01 SAC Capital Raises Stake in Source Inter link (SORC) to 5.4%08-29-2006 09:41:20 AMIn a 13G filing just released to the SEC, SAC Capital disclosed a 5.4% stake (2.8 million shares) in Source Interlink (SORC). This is up from the 2.5 million share stake the investment firm disclosed in a quarterly regulatory filing.Source Interlink Companies is a leading marketing, merchandising and fulfillment company of entertainment products including DVDs, music CDs, magazines, books and related items.Shares of Source Interlink were up 2.23% to $10.99 in early action Tuesday.SAC Capital Raises Stake in AC Moore Arts & Crafts (ACMR) to 5.3%08-28-2006 10:20:30 AMIn a 13G filing just released to the SEC, SAC Capital disclosed a 5.3% stake (1.05 million shares) in AC Moore Arts & Crafts Inc. (ACMR). This is up from the 52K share stake the investment firm disclosed in a quarterly regulatory filing.A.C. Moore operates arts and crafts stores that offer a vast assortment of traditional and contemporary... More About: Take , Link
Corporate Bankruptcies to Rise
2006-08-29 17:45:01 An annual report published by PricewaterhouseCoopers? Corporate Advisory and Restructuring group says corporate bankruptcies are on the rise for the first time since 2001.BusinessWeek says the report forecasts that 88 publicly-traded companies will file for bankruptcy this year, up from 80 filings in 2005. The report also predicts that roughly 100 public companies will file for bankruptcy next year.A majority of the bankruptcies will be in the retail and consumer products sectors. They?ll also be in the manufacturing industry, including automotive, plastics, paper, computer, and electronic product sectors.Due to a slowing economy, rising interest rates and energy prices, and waning consumer spending as reasons for the increase in bankruptcies.However, investors should note that even though bankruptcies are trending up, they?re still low by historically. In 2001, a record 257 public companies filed for bankruptcy. The average number of bankruptcies between 1998 and 2003 was 170. More About: Bank , Rise , Rate , Bankrupt
Insider Buying at Leucadia (LUK) & Selling at Foster Wheeler
2006-08-29 17:45:01 Insider BUYING: Leucadia National (LUK) - Date of Trade: 8/22/06 - Average Price: $25.83Recently Alan Hirschfield, Director at LUK bought the $258,332 purchase of 10K shares at $25.83 each. After all, there is a compelling case against conglomerates. Capital markets, the argument goes, are better than chief executives at allocating resources among industries. Why should fund managers who like, say, telecoms also be forced to invest in property? If they want exposure to both, they can build a portfolio better than any conglomerate boss could.Conglomerates therefore tend to have lower market values than the sum of their operations. Focus brings other benefits too. Managers do not divide their time, energy and expertise among industries.These arguments, however, appear to apply only in a specific historical context. Take America, which probably has the most focused companies in the world: the oft-cited success of General Electric , an outstanding conglomerate, is the exception that pro... More About: Buying , Selling , Inside , Sell , Side
The Outlook for Commodities, Part 2
2006-08-27 17:42:02 The International Energy Agency?s initial 2007 oil market forecast calls for global oil demand to accelerate to 1.9 percent growth from 1.4 percent in 06. Despite high storage levels for natural gas and recent price weakness, the EIA stated that future supply tightness and continued high oil prices could drive natural gas prices to over $9 per million cubic feet in the December-January time More About: Commodities , Outlook , Part , Comm , Look
Value in Wal-Mart (WMT)? James Altucher & My Take
2006-08-27 17:42:02 James Altucher of Formula Capital Super Centers Index declined by approximately 2.0% vs. a 2.7% rise in the S&P 1500 Index. I believe retailers, with strong balance sheets, aggressive new store expansion programs, and an attractive mix of consumables and basic merchandise will benefit from improved merchandising and expected moderate economic growth in 06. With the economy slowing down, More About: Mart , Wal-Mart , Take , Cher , Wal Mart
Variable Annuities- A Revolutionary Investment
2006-08-27 17:42:02 Investing can be frustrating these days, given the uncertain world of war, terrorism, inflation, boom and bust, and a Fed policy that changes every year. Now there is a fabulous new way to make money in the stock market without the risk. Here is the long list of the benefits of investing in variable annuities: Invest in practically any investment category you can name ? U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, More About: Evolution , Investment , Men , Revolution , Vest
A Blurry Picture for Ford (F) & Its Shareholders
2006-08-24 17:39:03 General Motors slashed labor costs quickly and effectively by offering cash incentives of up to $140K to union workers to get them to leave the company, Ford is now considering a similar move.Ford is weighing offering buyout or retirement incentives to all of its U.S. hourly staff as it looks for ways to trim costs.Ford had already stated that it would cut as many as 30K jobs and shut 14 factories in North America by 2012 as part of what it is calling its "Way Forward" plan - a desperate attempt to regain profitability.Ford considered the buyout strategy after seeing that GM was able to sway about a third of those employees who were offered the deal. But a firm buyout plan has not yet been finalized.A Ford spokeswoman told the Detroit News that discussions have been held, but a more detailed explanation - part of a broader restructuring plan - will not come until around mid-September.Wall Street believes that Ford is moving too slowly to reach its target of eliminating 30K from its ... More About: Shareholders , Picture , Share , Shareholder
Has Toll Brothers (TOL) Bottomed Out?
2006-08-23 17:39:02 Despite reporting lower earnings and a lowered guidance, shares of Toll Brothers were on the rise Tuesday morning, climbing roughly 2.5% to end the day up 1.74%.The lowered earnings still came in above expectations. Other home builders, including Pulte Homes & KB Home were also up on the news. Profits for the third quarter were down 19% & Revenues were down 1%.Robert Toll said, "The speculative buyers of 04 and 05 are now sellers," and added, "Builders that built speculative homes are trying to move them by offering large incentives and discounts and some anxious buyers are canceling contracts for homes already being built."Commenting on a "continuing malaise" in the housing market, he said, "This overhang in supply and the aggressive discounting of many builders is undermining consumer confidence and keeping buyers on the sidelines as they continue to worry about the direction of home prices."Investors should be concerned about lack of earnings visibility over the next 12 to 18... More About: Others , Hers
Insider Buying Argon (STST) & Selling Coventry Health (CVH)
2006-08-21 17:36:02 INSIDER BUYING: Argon (STST)Military revolutions occur repeatedly throughout history. They are as often based on broader social developments as on military technology; generally they favor offence. The current revolution in military affairs revolves around three advances.The first is in gathering intelligence. Sensors in satellites, aircraft or unmanned aircraft can monitor virtually everything going on in an area.The second is in processing intelligence. Advanced command, control, communication and computing systems make sense of the data gathered by the sensors and display it on-screen. They can then assign particular targets to missiles, tanks or whatever.The third is in acting on all this intelligence in particular, by using long-range precision strikes to destroy targets. Cruise missiles, guided by satellite, can hit an individual building many hundreds of miles away.US armed forces have these new systems already up and running thanks to companies such as $501.78 mil market cap... More About: Health , Buying , Selling , Inside , Sell
Top 20 stocks Trading Up & Down over 2% intra-day as of Augu
2006-08-17 17:27:03 Source: Minyanville More About: Stocks , Trading , Stock , Down , Over
The Fed Effect on Emerging Markets
2006-08-17 17:27:03 The Fed is caught between two opposing forces. The economy is slowing and the housing market has gone from a high rate of consumption, to slowing down at an alarming pace.Conversely, core inflation will continue edging up in the near run, regardless of how the economy performs.Emerging Mark et equities have rebounded about 15% in the past two months, following the deep correction in May. There could be more upside in the near term in response to the Fed?s rate pause last week, but history suggests EM stocks will likely struggle if the Fed tightening cycle is over.EM stocks are growth sensitive and tend to advance when the Fed is hiking interest rates because the latter reflects improving U.S. economic conditions.While the structural story for EM stocks remains positive, the developing slowdown in the U.S. is a powerful headwind, especially since Chinese policymakers are also trying to cool their commodity-intensive economy.This has led me to a neutral stance on EM stocks in equity po... More About: Markets , Effect , Merging
FOMC Pause
2006-08-15 17:24:02 Fed Statement : "Readings on core inflation have been elevated in recent months, and the high levels of resource utilization and of the prices of energy and other commodities have the potential to sustain inflation pressures. However, inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting contained inflation expectations and the cumulative effects of monetary policy actions and other factors restraining aggregate demand." I got this totally wrong. It seems Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, will allow the slowing economy to cool inflation overtime. Whether that will happen or not, remains to be seen. More About: Paus , Pause
Technical Analysis of Corporate Executive Board (EXBD) & Sci
2006-08-15 17:24:02 SwingTrades looks at EXPD, where the MAs are pointing towards a downtrend with a bearish crossover (a). EXBD surged below a support area with a bearish colored candle ( b ). EXBD traded today at the lower end of the bearish colored candle, representing a consolidation and possible setup for further downside. Look to go short at 85.85 as the stock continues its overall downtrend. Casey Murphy takes a look at SGMS because it has bounced off the support of a long-term trendline several times over the past three years. As you can see from the weekly chart below, this time the support was not strong enough to prevent the bears from pushing the price below the trendline. A break below a major trendline, such as the one shown in the chart, is used by technical traders as an early signal of a more significant pullback. Casey expect to see SGMS head lower until it is able to close back above the broken support line. More About: Technical , Analysis , Tech , Corporate , Board
Market Events This Week
2006-08-15 17:24:02 Source: WSJ More About: Events , Event , Market , This , Week
Stock Upgrades & Downgrades to consider- CSCO, NVDA, RIG, WW
2006-08-15 17:24:02 Cisco Systems "sell"- Analyst Robert Jakobsen of Jyske Bank reiterates his "sell" rating on Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO). The 12-month target price is set to $21.In a research note published yesterday, the analyst mentions that Cisco Systems? share price has appreciated by 9% after the company projected 10%-15% y/y organic sales growth for the 2006/2007 accounting year. The analyst believes that Cisco Systems would not be able to meet an organic growth target of 15%. Jyske Bank expects long-term investor concerns over the company?s growth potential to resurface going forward.Nvidia "buy" target price raised- Analysts at UBS maintain their "buy" rating on Nvidia Corp (NVDA), while raising their estimates for the company. The target price has been raised from $28 to $30.In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company has reported its 2Q revenues ahead of the estimates and the consensus and has issued higher-than-expected revenue guidance for 3Q. Although N... More About: Stock , Grades , Ades , Down , Upgrades
Interpreting the Major Averages
2006-08-15 17:24:02 The DIA has failed to make break through resistance on Fed rate hikes, a majority of rallies fail, exhibiting lack of relative strength & market breadth.The transports have been in a downtrend for about 6 weeks now. Based on the TMFI (Twiggs Money Flow Indicator) there has been distribution due to the hiccups of UPS, followed by FDX. Transports is one of the main gauges of economic activity and has been going down.The 50-day MA of the QQQQ was strong enough to prevent the bulls from pushing the index higher and it also remains a very influential factor in determining the short-term direction of prices. The Nasdaq 100 has remained below 0 on the TMFI (below 0 means bearish trend) exhibiting distribution due to lack of IT spending by corporate consumers.The S&P 500 has failed to break through resistance at 1275. The lack of market breadth and relative strength has the bears tugging the market towards their side. We need to see a break-out above 1275 to be bullish, otherwise the S&... More About: Inter , Rage , Vera , Interpret , Major
Unusual Options Activity as of August 14th 2006
2006-08-15 17:24:02 Unusual Call ActivityTicker Symbol Call Volume Avg. Call Volume Daily Volume Ratio MU 19,187 1,986 9.7 NTES 11,341 1,788 6.3 EMC 7,402 1,643 4.5 KO 10,289 2,470 4.2 BMHC 5,995 1,459 4.1 GE 18,491 5,244 3.5 CVTX 4,347 1,303 3.3 CMCSA 5,481 1,662 3.3 GILD 5,047 1,575 3.2 WFMI 5,267 1,704 3.1 ORCL 11,113 3,660 3.0 AMAT 7,787 2,687 2.9 F 16,468 6,169 ... More About: Options , August , Opti
Producer Price Index- What to Expect
More articles from this author:2006-08-15 17:24:02 Released on 8/15/06 For Jul 2006 Consensus Notes The producer price index posted a large 0.5 percent increasein June, following a 0.2 percent increase in May. The corerate rose 0.2 percent in June, following a 0.3 percent risein May.A disturbing upward trend has been seen in the YOY core ratewhich jumped to 1.9 percent from 1.5 percent in May.While we cannot really expect much relief yet on the overallPPI due to higher oil prices, the key issue is whether we willsee softness in the core rate. We should see weakness in corePPI before we see deceleration in the goods portions of thecore CPI. PPI Consensus Forecast for July 06: +0.4 percentRange: +0.1 to +0.6 percentPPI ex food & energy Consensus Forecast for July 06: +0.2 percentRange: +0.1 to +0.3 percent Trends It is always a good idea to loo... More About: What , Rice , Hat , Price , Expect 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 |
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