IntelligentguessIntelligentguessAnalysis of Market Economics - including but not limited to - the Stock Market, World Indexes, Economics, Hedging Business Risk, Currency, Commodity, Options and other Financial Instruments Articles
USA - Production in May’07 grows at its slowest pace since Sept’05
2007-06-25 12:04:00 Situation On a monthly basis production had no growth ( grew by 0.4% in Arp’07) On a yearly basis production has grown by 1.60 % p.a ( no change from Apr’07) Background New orders have had a bit of growth in Apr’07 ( first time since Sept’06). This could puush production up towards Sept’07 Conclusion ( click on image for a better visual) Prod uction could range between 1.90% and 4.2% growth towards Sept’07 Would expect Production to contract towards -5.0% p.a towards end of 2007 early 2008. Related links USA - Production grows in Mar’07 at the slowest pace since Sept’05 Europe - Production in Apr’07 UK - Production remains down in Apr’07 Japan - Production grows at a declining rate in Apr’07 India - IIP continues to grow in Apr’07 USA - New orders grow for the first time since Sept’06 Europe - New Orders grow in Mar’07 Japan -... More About: Pace , Lowes , Slow
UK - New Orders decline in Apr?07
2007-06-25 09:33:00 Situation On a monthly basis Order s grew by 10.30% ( grew by 27.70% in Mar?07) On a yearly basis Orders has contracted by by -0.60% p.a ( grew by 12.80% p.a in Mar?07) . Background Bank of England has hiked the interest rates for the 4th time since Aug?06 to 5.50%. GDP growth rate for Q1 2007 is at 2.86% p.a ( 2.90% p.a in Q4 2006) . Conclusion (click on image for a better visual) ... More About: United Kingdom , Industrial Production , Line
Europe - Producer Prices in Apr’07 rise at its slowest pace since Jul’0
2007-06-25 09:11:00 Situation On a monthly basis prices rose by 0.43 % (0.32 % in Mar’07) On an annual basis prices rose by 2.41 % p.a ( 2.82 % p.a in Mar’07) Background The annual inflation is at its lowest levels since July 2004 ( 2.41 % p.a) The Europe an Commercial Bank (ECB) had raised its interest rates from 3.25% to 3.75%, in Dec’06 (25 basis ponts), and in Marc’07 (25 basis points). The ECB in its meeting on Jun’07 further raised the bank rate by 0.25 bais points to 4.00%. The European Commercial bank ( ECB) aims at inflation ( CPI ) rates of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. European GDP has been expanding in Q1 2007 Conclusion (click on image for a better visual) The recent hike in rates would encourage the PPI to move towards the 2.00% p.a area ( ECB target) The strong drop in PPI could also lead to CPI ( specifically Core CPI) dropping. If this does happen - the ECB could ta... More About: Pace , Lowes , Slow , Rise
Trade Status - Q1 2007
2007-06-25 01:20:00 Goods as a % of GDP USA Euro Zone Japan UK India 2006q01 -6.39% -0.15% 1.59% -6.71% -5.7% 2006q02 -6.40% 0.34% 1.68% -7.06% -9.3% 2006q03 -6.57% 0.37% 1.92% -6.09% -8.8% 2006q04 -5.95% 0.95% 2.24% -6.12% -8.5% 2007q01 -5.90% 0.36% 2.39% -6.20% . Goods and Services as a % of GDP USA Euro Zone Japan UK China India 2006q01 -5.83% -0.67% 1.49% -4.37% 3.24% 0.91% 2006q02 -5.84% -0.33% 1.09% -4.82% 2.68% -2.21% 2006q03 -5.98% -0.23% 1.39% -3.91% 2.54% -2.57% 2006q04 -5.26% 1.02% 1.79% -3.70% 7.14% -1.37% 2007q01 -5.19% -0.07% 2.21% -3.87% . Balance of payments ( BOP) as a % of GDP USA Euro Zone Japan UK China India 2006q01 -6.17% -0.58% 4.48% -3.40% 4.45% 6.60% 2006q02 -6.23% -0.27% 3.15% -2.99% 3.50% 3.44% 2006q03 -6.53% -0.14% 4.27% -3.22% 3.30% 1.24% 200... More About: United States , United Kingdom
Europe - Production in Apr?07
2007-06-21 02:59:00 Situation On a monthly basis production contracted by -0.83% ( grew by 0.54% in Mar?07) On a yearly basis production has grown by 3.06 % p.a ( grew by 3.95 % p.a in Mar?07) Background Prod uction has been on a downward trend since May’06 ( 5.64% p.a) The ECB raised interest rates to 4.00% on June 6 2007 Conclusion ( click on image for a better visual) Production looks ... More About: Europe , Euro area , Industrial Production
India - IIP continues to grow in Apr?07
2007-06-21 00:00:00 Situation On a monthly basis production contracted by -11.3% ( grew by 14.6 % in Mar?07) On a yearly basis production has grown by 13.60 % p.a ( grew by 14.5% p.a in Mar?07) Conclusion ( click on image for a better visual) On a 3 month rolling average basis the IIP looks like dropping towards 10.5% p.a towards Jun’07. IIP could then drop further to 9% ... More About: India , Industrial Production , Grow , Conti
UK - Production remains down in Apr?07
2007-06-18 06:55:00 Situation On a monthly basis production remained flat ( contracted by -0.20 % in Apr?07) On a yearly basis production has grown by 0.40 % p.a ( contracted by -0.40 % p.a in Apr?07) Background Bank of England has hiked the interest rates for the 4th time since Aug?06 to 5.50%. GDP growth rate for Q1 2007 is at 2.86% p.a ( 2.90% p.a in ... More About: United Kingdom , Industrial Production , Production , Prod , Mains
Japan - Q1 2007 GDP grows at its fastest pace since Q4 2005
2007-06-12 18:36:00 Situation On a quarterly basis GDP grew by 0.81% in Q1 2007 (as compared to 1.32% in Q4 2006) On a annual basis GDP grew by 2.68% p.a in Q1 2007 (as compared to 2.42% p.a in Q4 2006) Background Japan - Orders grow marginally in Apr?07 Japan - Dramatic fall in new orders in Mar?07 ( strongest fall since ... More About: Pace , Grow , Since
Japan - Orders grow marginally in Apr?07
2007-06-12 09:30:00 Situation On a monthly basis production has grown by 15.96% ( contracted by -15.73 % in Mar?07) On a yearly basis production has grown by 2.98 % p.a ( contracted by -16.46 % p.a in Mar?07) Background Japan - Production grows at a declining rate in Apr?07 Conclusion ( click on image for a bigger visual) Order s can be expected to range between a ... More About: Industrial Production , Orders , Grow
Japan - Production grows at a declining rate in Apr?07
2007-06-05 23:18:00 Situation On a monthly basis production has contracted by -0.09% ( -0.28% drop in Mar?07) On a yearly basis production has grown by 2.48 % p.a ( 3.16 % p.a in Feb?07) Background Prod uction decreased, Shipments and Inventory increased, Inventory Ratio decreased. Dramatic fall in new orders in Mar?07 ( strongest fall since May ?02 ) Japan - Production growth rate drops in Mar?07 Conclusion ( ... More About: Industrial Production , Grow
USA - Q1 2007 GDP annual growth revised to a lower level (lowest since 2003
2007-06-05 11:50:00 Situation On a Quarterly basis GDP grew by 0.16% ( was 0.61% in Q4 2006) On an annual basis GDP grew by 1.90% p.a in Q1 2007 ( was 3.128% p.a in Q4 2006) Background New orders have grown in Apr’077 ( for the first time since Sept’06) Production in Apr’07 grew at the slowest pace since Apr’04 ( reflecting ... More About: United States , Growth , Lower , Vise , Lowes
USA - New orders grow for the first time since Sept?06
2007-06-05 00:01:00 Situation On a monthly basis orders grew by 0.30% ( 4.1 % in Mar?07) On a yearly basis orders grew by 0.978 % p.a ( dropped by -1.019 % p.a in Mar?07) Background Shipments, up two consecutive months, increased 0.8% (2.1% March increase) Inventories, up thirteen of the last fourteen months, increased 0.5%. This was at the highest level since the series began and followed a 0.2 percent ... More About: United States , Time , Industrial Production , First Time , Order
Euro GDP continues to grow at a faster pace in Q1 2007
2007-06-01 11:35:00 Situation On a quarterly basis GDP grew by 0.92% ( was 0.89% in Q4 2006) On an annual basis GDP grew by 3.42% p.a in Q1 2007 ( was 3.33% p.a in Q4 2006) Background Euro pe - New Orders grow in Mar?07 Euro area - Production growth sustained in Mar?07 Euro area - Core inflation ( CPI ) growth at ... More About: Pace , Grow , Conti
Report on Currency and Finance released
2007-05-31 20:13:00 The Reserve Bank of India has released the “Report on Currency and Finance ” for the year 2005 - 2006 today. This is an annual report and is traditionally released with a delay of about a year or so, though it does discuss recent developments in the financial markets and policy formulation too. The report can be ... More About: Monetary Policy
Europe - New Orders grow in Mar?07
2007-05-31 00:30:00 Situation On a monthly basis orders grew by 2.90% ( -0.59 % drop in Feb?07) On a yearly basis orders grew by 10.21 % p.a ( 5.94% p.a growth in Feb?07) Background Interest rates have been raised in Dec?06 towards 3.5% and in Mar?07 towards 3.75%. Members of the ECB have said that interest rates would again be be increased in Jun?07 Order s have been declining since ... More About: Europe , Euro area , Industrial Production , Orders
RBI - Change of tactics
2007-05-30 21:13:00 The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) seems to have changed tactics in the conduct of its monetary policy. There is a distinct shift in focus that is quite evident if one analyses the events of the last week or so. Let’s recall what’s happened in this time The Indian rupee (INR) hit a 9 year high ... More About: Tactics , Monetary Policy , Inflation , Interest Rates
The Government defaults
2007-05-24 13:49:00 Credit rating agency Fitch, today, downgraded bonds issued by ITI Limited, a (sick) Government of India owned telecom equipment manufacturer to default grade ?D (Ind) (SO)?. This, in itself, may not be much newsworthy, except for the fact that these bonds carried the highest possible rating ?AAA (Ind) (SO)? prior to this downgrade to default ... More About: Fault , The Go , The G
Strange are the ways of the market
2007-05-24 06:29:00 The India n Stock markets traded weak on Wednesday, May 23. The weakness was led by banking sector stocks. These stocks were weak on rumors floating around in the marketplace that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may hike the cash reserve ratio (CRR) ? the proportion of deposits that commercial banks have to set aside ... More About: Stocks , Market , Interest Rates , Markets
USA - Production growth in Apr?07 at its lowest pace since Apr?04
2007-05-18 14:58:00 Situation On a monthly basis production increased by 0.7 % in Apr?07 ( - 0.3 % decline in Mar?07) On a yearly basis increased by 1.9 % p.a in Apr?07 ( 2.1 % p.a decline in Mar?07) Background USA - Production growth in Mar?07 was at its slowest pace since Sept?05 New orders, Shipments and Inventories position seem to indicate that Production growth can ... More About: United States , Industrial Production , Growth , Pace
Euro area - Production growth sustained in Mar?07
2007-05-18 08:53:00 Situation On a monthly basis production grew by 0.44% ( 0.47% growth in Feb?07) On a yearly basis production grew by 3.80% p.a ( 4.02% p.a growth in Feb?07) Background Interest rates have been raised in Dec?06 towards 3.5% and in Mar?07 towards 3.75%. Members of the ECB have said that interest rates would again be be increased in Jun?07 Orders have been declining since ... More About: Euro , Euro area , Industrial Production , Growth , Production
Japan - Producer prices rise in Apr?07
2007-05-18 00:33:00 Situation On a monthly basis prices rose by 0.79 % (0.30 % in Mar?07) On an annual basis prices rose by 2.20 % p.a ( 2.01% p.a in Mar?07) Background The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised the uncollateralized overnight call rate from 0.25% to 0.50% on Feb 21 2007 ( with a comment that future rate hikes would depend on growth and consumption) The ... More About: Inflation , Rise , Prod , Produce
USA - Producers prices remain high in Apr ?07
2007-05-17 14:12:00 Situation On a monthly basis prices rose by 0.97 % (1.36 % in Mar?07) On an annual basis prices rose by 3.17 % p.a ( 3.21% p.a in Mar?07) Core inflation stands at 1.51% p.a ( was 1.70% in Mar?07) Background Core PPI has dropped. (click on image for a larger visual ) Prod ucer prices rose in Mar?07 ( impact tends to be ... More About: United States , Monetary Policy , Inflation , High
Draft CDS guidelines for the Indian credit markets released
2007-05-17 03:00:00 In a previous post I had mildly chided the Reserve Bank of India for sticking to its commitment on releasing the draft guidelines for trading in Credit Default Swaps by May 15. These guidelines have now been released. The circular can be found here. The full text of the guidelines is here (pdf document). So after all, ... More About: Indian , Interest Rates , Markets
Japan - Dramatic fall in new orders in Mar?07 ( strongest fall since May ?0
2007-05-16 23:43:00 Situation On a monthly basis orders contracted by -15.73% ( 2.78% growth in Feb?07) On a yearly basis order contracted by -16.46% p.a ( 5.83 % p.a growth in Feb?07) Background Production growth rate drops in Mar?07 Order s grow at a slower pace in Feb?07 This site expected that the strong fall in new orders would be post mid’07 towards mid’08 ( click here ) The ... More About: Japan , Monetary Policy , Industrial Production , Tron
USA - Inflation rate (CPI) drops marginally in Apr?07
2007-05-16 17:30:00 Situation On a monthly basis prices rose by 0.65 % (0.91 % in Mar?07) On an annual basis prices rose by 2.57 % p.a ( 2.78% p.a in Mar?07) Core inflation stands at 2.30% p.a ( was 2.50% in Mar’07) Back ground Core CPI has dropped. (click on image for a larger visual ) Producer prices rose in Mar’07 ( impact tends to ... More About: United States , Monetary Policy , Inflation , Rate , Ally
UK Inflation (CPI) drops in Apr?07
2007-05-16 12:00:00 Situation On a monthly basis prices rose by 0.29 % (0.48 % in Mar?07) On an annual basis prices rose by 2.75 % p.a ( 3.07% p.a in Feb?07) Background (click on image for a bigger visual) The Bank of England ( BOE) voted to raise the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves by 0.25 percentage points to 5.5% during ... More About: United Kingdom , Monetary Policy , Inflation , Drop , Flat
UK - PPI Producer prices drop in Apr?07
2007-05-16 09:14:00 Situation On a monthly basis prices rose by 0.50 % (0.60 % in Mar?07) On an annual basis prices rose by 2.47 % p.a ( 2.68% p.a in Feb?07) Background (click on image for a bigger visual) The Bank of England ( BOE) voted to raise the official Bank Ratee paid on commercial bank reserves by 0.25 percentage points to 5.5% ... More About: United Kingdom , Monetary Policy , Inflation , Prod , Produce
Greenspan becomes a consultant (again) - Signs on with PIMCO
2007-05-16 06:43:00 The online edition of the Wall Street Journal reports Two of the world’s best-known interest-rate experts, the “Maestro” and “The Bond King,” are now playing for the same team. Alan Greenspan, returning to his roots as an economic consultant, has signed up Allianz AG’s Pacific Investment Management Co. as his first client since leaving as chairman ... More About: United States , Consultant , Signs , Again , Come
USA - Record fiscal surplus in Apr?07 (highest since Apr?01)
2007-05-15 14:30:00 Situation The impact of large individual tax deposits resulted in budget receipts of $383.6 billion and a surplus of $177.7 bn for Apr’07 Fiscal deficit as a % of Real GDP stood at - 6.17% at the end of Q1 2007 ( Q1 always tends to have the worst fiscal situation as a % of GDP) Background ( click on image ... More About: United States , High , Plus , Record
Europe - Producer Prices : Prices in Mar?07 rise at the lowest pace since J
More articles from this author:2007-05-15 09:00:00 Situation On a monthly basis prices rose by 0.28 % (0.35 % in Feb?07) On an annual basis prices rose by 2.78 % p.a ( 2.97% p.a in Feb?07) Background The annual inflation is at its lowest levels since July 2004 ( 2.87% p.a) The Europe an Commercial Bank (ECB) had raised its interest rates from 3.25% to 3.75%, in Dec?06 (25 basis ponts), and in Marc?07 ... More About: Monetary Policy , Inflation , Euro area , Pace 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 |
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