IntelligentguessIntelligentguessAnalysis of Market Economics - including but not limited to - the Stock Market, World Indexes, Economics, Hedging Business Risk, Currency, Commodity, Options and other Financial Instruments Articles
Euro area - Production (IIP) grows in Feb?07
2007-04-16 09:00:00 Situation On a monthly basis IIP grew by 0.57% in Feb’07 ( as compared to a -0.46% in Jan’07) On an annual basis IIP grew by 4.21 % p.a in Feb’07 ( as compared a 3.40% p.a in Jan’07) Background Interest rates have been raised in Dec?06 towards 3.5% and in Mar?07 towards 3.75%. As per the previous report on IIP, Prod uction ... More About: Euro , Euro area , Area
India - Production continues to drop in Feb?07 ??.. and the Indian govt may
2007-04-16 04:00:00 Situation On a monthly basis - production ( IIP) contracted to a negative -4.8% growth in Feb’07 ( as compared to a 1.3% growth in Jan’07). On an annual basis - Feb’07 grew at 11% p.a ( down from 11.4% p.a). Product ion has had a continuous drop since Nov’06 ( 15.8% p.a) On a 3 month average basis ( ... More About: India , Indian , Production , Dian
India - Production continues to drop in Feb?07 ??.. and the Indian govt may
2007-04-16 04:00:00 Situation On a monthly basis - production ( IIP) contracted to a negative -4.8% growth in Feb’07 ( as compared to a 1.3% growth in Jan’07). On an annual basis - Feb’07 grew at 11% p.a ( down from 11.4% p.a). Production has had a continuous drop since Nov’06 ( 15.8% p.a) On a 3 month average basis ( ... More About: India , Indian , Monetary Policy , Industrial Production
Japan - Producer prices ( PPI ) inches up in Mar?07
2007-04-16 00:00:00 Situation On a monthly basis PPI grew by 0.30% in Mar’07 ( was at 0% in Feb’07) On an annual basis PPI grew at 2.01% ( 1.71% in Feb’07). Back ground Annual PPI has been dropping since Sept’06 ( 3.56% p.a). The recent drops in inflation led to the BOJ leaving the Bank rates unchanged. Conclusion ( click / double click ... More About: Japan , Rice , Price , Inch , Prod
USA - Fiscal situation as a percentage of GDP, under the recent four Presid
2007-04-14 23:59:00 ; 0; 60; &# 160; & #160; VERSUS Click here for a larger visual Conclusion Its clear that the the Fiscal situation improves under Democrats and deteriorates under Republicans Also see ( will give further indications of the fiscal policies of Republicans versus Democrats ) USA - Relationship between Total Debt ( data from 1929) and External debt as a % of the ... More About: Cent , Recent , Four , Under
RBI - Is it sovereign anymore?
2007-04-13 21:30:00 The Reserve Bank of India issued a press release announcing to the world at large that : it now has the power to set the cash reserve ratio (CRR) - the proportion of bank funds that it pre-empts - at any level. The floor and cap of 3% and 20% respectively no longer stand. The central ... More About: Over , More , Reign , Sovereign
RBI - Is it sovereign anymore?
2007-04-13 20:09:00 The Reserve Bank of India issued a press release announcing to the world at large that : it now has the power to set the cash reserve ratio (CRR) - the proportion of bank funds that it pre-empts - at any level. The floor and cap of ... More About: Over , More , Reign , Sovereign
USA - Deficit increases in Mar?07 ( on an annual basis)
2007-04-13 16:47:00 Situation ( click on visual to get an idea of the 12 month rolling trend) The deficit for the month of Mar’07 was at -96.71 Bn US $ ( as compared to -85.28 Bn US $ in Mar’06). This represents a 12.89% increase per annum The deficit in Mar’07 dropped by 19.77% as compared to Feb’07 ... More About: Al B , Ease , Deficit , Annual
Japan - Orders grow at a slower pace in Feb?07
2007-04-12 16:51:00 Situation On a monthly basis - Order s grew by 5.5% in Feb’07 as compared to 10.59 % in Jan?07 On an annual basis - Orders grew by 6.31% p.a in Feb’07 as compared to 11.06 % p.a in Jan?07 Background New Orders growth rate improved in Jan?07 as compared to Dec?06. Production grew moderately in Feb’07. Conclusion (click on image for larger visual ) Orders can ... More About: Japan , Lower , Pace , Slow
Lull before the storm?.
2007-04-11 11:22:00 Overnight Money rates have crashed Less than 1.5% for borrowing against collateral Less than 4% for clean borrowing Highest rate at which overnight money was dealt today is 5.80% Bond yields have eased Yields on the ten year benchmark bond has fallen 15 basis points RBI?s repo window is being subjected to large requests for funds ... More About: Storm , Stor , Fore
Japan - Bank leaves rates unchanged
2007-04-11 10:21:00 At the Monetary Policy Meeting held today, the Bank of Japan ( BOJ ) decided, by a unanimous vote,[Note] to set the following guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period: The Bank of Japan will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5 percent. i.e - The Bank of Japan held its at ... More About: Change , Leave , Rates
USA - New Orders continues declines in Feb?07 ( annual basis)
2007-04-10 15:25:00 Situation On a monthly basis : New orders increased by 1.0 % in Feb’07 ( - 5.7 % decline in Jan’07) On a yearly basis : New orders decreased by - 0.82% p.a in Feb’07 ( -1.648 % -revised data- decline in Jan’07) Background Shipments, down two consecutive months, again decreased by - 0.5%. ( -1.7 % decrease in Jan’07) Unfilled orders, ... More About: New Order , Line , Lines , Order , Al B
Japan - BOJ starts two-Day Monetary Policy meeting
2007-04-09 15:59:00 The Bank of Japan started a two-day monetary policy meeting on April 9 - Monday. The Bank of Japan ( BOJ) had raised rates to 0.5% from 0.25% in Feb’07. No policy change is expected at the meeting, as recent softness in prices indicates that the BOJ’s next monetary tightening could be delayed. other related links : Japan - Bank of ... More About: Monetary Policy , Arts , Policy , Start
US - Relationship between GDP, Deficit, Debt, Savings, and the Fed rate ( a
2007-04-09 01:25:00 The following series of reports seeks to explore the relation ships between key aspects of the US economy and demonstrate why in recent times ( since 2000 ) the savings rate has become a key issue in monetary policy. Relations hip between Fiscal Deficit and Saving s rate ( part I of the series ) Relationship between GDP and Savings rate (part II of ... More About: Between , Debt
USA - Relationship between Fiscal Deficit and Savings rate ( since 1981 )
2007-04-09 01:20:00 Part I of the series note: Fiscal deficit in image is in millions of US $ Click here for a larger Visual Between 1981 and 1992 ( Republican years) the deficit was on an increase. At the same time the Republicans went for a strong increase in Debt as a % of GDP and a drop in interest rates. ... More About: Relationship , Relations , Saving
USA - Relationship between GDP and Savings rate ( Quarterly data since 1985
2007-04-09 01:15:00 Part II of the series Click here to get a larger Visual Between 1995 and 2000 the GDP grew from 2% p.a towards 4.8% p.a ( 2.8% p.a change) at the same time the savings rate dropped from 4% to 2% ( 2 % change). Between 2002 and 2006 Q4 the GDP grew from a 0.35% p.a towards 3.00 % p.a growth rate ... More About: Relationship , Data , Arte , Relations
USA - Relationship between Total Debt ( data from 1929) and External debt a
2007-04-09 01:05:00 Part III of the series Point I - Historical debt as a % of GDP ( yearly data since 1929 ) Click here to get a larger visual Debt as a % of GDP has been on the increase - especially when the Republicans are ruling Point II - External Debt as a % of GDP (Quarterly data ... More About: Relationship , Data , Between , Relations
USA - Manner in which the Deficit has been financed since 1995 ( Savings vi
2007-04-09 01:00:00 Part IV of the series Click here for a larger visual Deficit was strongly on the rise from 2001 - and peaked towards 2004. Saving s rate remained at about the 2.00% area between Q3 2000 and Q2 2002.A small decline in savings rate that started in Q2 2002 went into a sharp decline from Q4 2004. From the image it ... More About: Finance , Mann , Anne , Savings
USA - Relationship between Fed rate and Savings rate ( data from 1954 )
2007-04-09 00:55:00 Part V of the series Point I - Historical Fed rate versus Saving s rate Click here to get a larger visual Above is the historical Savings rate viz the Fed rate. Until 1984 the savings rate ranged between 7% and 12%. The Fed rate peaked at 19 % in 1981 - and has been steadily brought down since. This act ... More About: Relationship , Data , Between , Relations
Conclusion - to series
2007-04-08 22:30:00 The US has not seen Fed interest rates anywhere near double digit since 1985 ( closest it came post 1985 was at 9.80% in 1989 ) It is in the US interest that external debt as a % of GDP should be brought back towards the 10% area. ( currently at 17 % ). As can be ... More About: Series , Sion , Serie , Erie
Euro area - Producer Prices ( PPI) : Prices rise at the lowest pace since A
2007-04-06 08:47:00 Situation On a monthly basis prices were up by 0.32% in Feb’07 ( Jan’07 prices increased by 0.23%) On an annual basis prices rose by 2.92 % p.a in Feb’07 ( Jan’07 prices increased by 3.08%). This is the lowest rate of growth since Aug’04 ( 3.09% p.a). Background The Euro pean Commercial Bank (ECB) had raised its interest rates from 3.25% ... More About: Euro area , Rice , West , Price
UK - Interest rates kept steady at 5.25 percent as expected
2007-04-05 13:44:00 Situation The Bank of England kept interest rates steady at 5.25 percent on Thursday - April 5th 2007. Note This site has continuously been studying this issue and concluding that the Bank would retain a steady posture. The main reasons were discussed in Feb-Mar 2007 in the below links. Q4 2006 GDP issues Jan’07 Production issues Feb’07 Producer prices issues In the past ... More About: Interest Rates , Inter , Cent , Stead , Expect
UK - GDP grew at 2.96 percent per annum in Q4 2006 as compared to 2.90 perc
2007-04-05 13:05:00 Note : These are revised estimates for Q4 2006 ( read : previous estimate) Situation Quarter on Quarter - GDP grew by 0.67 % in the Q4 2006, ( 0.68% in Q3 2006). On an annual basis GDP grew by 2.96 % p.a in Q4 2005. For the year 2006 as a whole GDP rose by 2.8 % p.a. Quarter on Quarter Production ... More About: Comp , Cent , Compare , Compa , Pare
UK - Production: Sluggish growth in Feb?07
2007-04-05 12:45:00 Situation On a monthly basis production ( IIP) decreased by - 0.2% in Feb’07 ( - 0.10% in Dec’06 and flat in Jan’07) . Manufacturing was the prime cause since its production dropped by -0.58% in Feb’07. On an annual basis production growth was at 0.30% p.a ( 0.20% in Jan’07). Background Prod uct ion growth peaked in Oct’06 ( 1.44% p.a) ... More About: Gish , Growth , Production
MIBOR - Policymakers are u paying attention?
2007-04-04 06:56:00 The month of March has seen some of the highest volatility seen in the inter bank overnight rates in India?s money markets. NSE Overnight MIBOR, the most widely used benchmark saw, both, its yearly low ? 5.21% on March 5 - and its yearly high ? 68.27% on March 30 ? during the month. Part ... More About: Policy , Maker , Make , Makers , Attention
What Cricket can learn from the Finance world
2007-04-03 07:30:00 The recent World Cup where India seems to have lost even before they went for the tournament is interesting Its interesting part is both the manner in which it prepared for the Cup - and the manner in which committees are being constituted to find out what went wrong. Along with this comes the consolation statement - ” its ... More About: Cricket , Finance , Rick , What
TAC reconstiuted - Remains Old Wine
2007-04-03 07:26:00 The Reserve Bank of India has reconstituted the technical advisory commitee (TAC) on monetary policy (Press Release). It continues to remain ”Old Wine in an Old Bottle“. KRG’s advice seems to have gone unheeded. More About: Main , Const , Econ , Cons
Mortgage Guarantee Companies and Mumbai IFC - Reports released
2007-04-03 07:18:00 The Reserve Bank of India has released the draft guidelines for operations of the proposed mortgage guarantee companies. The setting up of mortgage guarantee companies was announced by the Finance Minister in his annual budget speech. The draft report has been placed in the public domain to elicit comments and suggestions. Key recommendations in the draft guidelines ... More About: Companies , Comp , Report , Mumbai , Port
USA - Personal Income and Savings in Feb?07 - No improvement in savings rat
2007-04-02 15:00:00 Situation Personal income increased $65.4 billion, or 0.6 %, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $53.8 billion, or 0.5 %, in Feb’07. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $55.5 billion, or 0.6 %. In January,personal income increased $110.5 billion, or 1.0 %, DPI increased $74.2 billion, or 0.8 %, and PCE increased $50.2 billion, or 0.5 %. Personal saving ... More About: Men , Income , Come , Improvement
India : Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Prices jump in Feb?07
More articles from this author:2007-04-02 13:38:00 Situation The CPI for urban workers has jumped to 7.60% p.a for the month ending Feb’07. ( was 6.70% p.a for Jan’07) The Reserve Bank of India has reacted to this jump by announcing a set of policy measures. (BTW - read Dheeraj Singhs warning in Feb’07 : “Be prepared for the Ides of March” ) Conclusion (click on image for a larger visual ... More About: Consumer , Rice , Price , Jump 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 |
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