The Kingsland Report

RSS Feed Homepage

Articles: 1, 2, 3

Tweaking the Crude Range
2008-06-01 17:11:00
Our April 14th call for an upper range of $130 for WTI light sweet crude is being adjusted upward to $140/bbl for the same reasons we've outlined before: strong world demand and that the days of easy access to sweet crude are in the rear view mirror. As one example, last week it was reported that output from Mexico's Cantarell oil field plummeted to just over 1 mln barrels per day. True, the Mexicans could tap copious deep sea patches in the Gulf, but constitutional barriers bar the deep pocketed foreign partners from getting involved. Internal political dis-unity has prevented a constitutional change from taking place. So they've blown it to the point where there won't be any deep sea production from Mexico for 20 years. James Polk and Sam Houston are laughing in their graves.
More About: Range , Tweaking

Weekly Commentary From the BWS Contributors
2008-05-17 16:04:00
There is no denying the stock market remains resilient thanks, we think, to the chorus of the "worst is over" from a crowd of talking heads, Wall Street execs and DC denizens. Senate housing bailout may also provide market support. For the week, Dow rose 1.89 percent, S&P 500 gained 2.67 percent, Nasdaq added 3.41 percent. The S&P 500, Nasdaq at five-month highs.We remain long term bearish on the stock market and view the rebound from March as a bear market rally. "The worst is over" mantra is nothing new as a quick view of the Dow from 1931 to 1934 shows some strong rallies predicated on the worst being over, but of course the worst was yet to come. The more important debate may well be whether we're in the calm eye of the storm, or if the angst markets have experienced since last summer has only been strong outer bands of the approaching real storm. We think the ladder given signs of growing damage in the HELOC world where real losses as opposed to write downs will hav...
More About: Commentary , Weekly

Our April 14 Range Upgrade for Crude Was Well Timed
2008-05-10 03:07:00
... and that begs the question of where to next? Crude cannot sustain this advance indefinitely. With the month only 9 days old -- yes, some like it hot, some like it cold, some like it in the barrel 9 days old -- WTI light sweet is up a stupendous 11% month to date! Thus, the rise has become quite parabolic and the danger of a short and sharp correction should be a part of every trader's thinking. (See our crude trading range upgrade from mid-April a few posts below.)Lesson learned from this recent leg up? 87 mln is the number to remember. 87 million is about DAILY world consumption of barrels of black gold. 87 MILLION 42-gallon barrels of crude on the wall.. you take one down, pass it around...Pundits have been puzzled by how the dollar can bounce from its lows, yet crude continues to go higher. They forget that crude is not just about the dollar, or U.S. supply/demand. China demand has doubled in just the last decade, for example. Non OECD demand will continue to dog...
More About: Range

A Word About Mortgage Resets: Tsunami
2008-04-27 00:53:00
The image above shows what Jim would call "max-pain" in the on going storm of mortgage resets. We are now in the midst of a mind numbing peak in resets of subprime mortgages. Gee, could this be why retail sales and consumer confidence have fallen off cliff? And while we're at this grim peak, remember that reset doesn't equate with instant default. Default takes 90 days to happen and then once foreclosure proceedings are started, depending on the state, it can take up to a year before the foreclosure actually happens. So even with a peak in resets now, banks and the courts will be busy for the next year dealing with whatever carnage results from this reset tsunami.Oh, and before you breathe a sigh of relief that we're at a peak in resets of "subprime" mortgages, notice that another tsunami of option arm adjustables and Alt-A resets will get underway in 2009 and not peak until 2011. Going from interest only to a principle and interest payment will be a killer.-MMK for the B...
More About: Tsunami , Word , Mortgage

Crude: Upping The Range
2008-04-15 04:09:00
We're going to a range of $95 as downside support to $130 as resistance this year on light sweet crude. Jim's old range of $85 to $110 has been tested on both ends, though barely so on the bottom end, and so it's time for a revision. Even with the U.S. economy likely to become deeply mired in recession later this year and through 2009, any reduction in output from any player in OPEC, or outside the cartel, will have a very meaningful upside impact on prices. Demand also remains strong enough from countries like China and India to keep the price quite supported. We're in a paradigm now where U.S. DOE inventory figures should take a back seat to weekly Chinese input/output data, were such data available and reliable. In other words, the price of crude is no longer a proposition of just U.S. demand. The weakening dollar shall also remain a constant millstone around the necks of the crude oil BEARS.Make no mistake about it, crude does look over bought, but it can remain so, l...
More About: Range

Bernanke and the Recession
2008-04-02 22:15:00
IF I were still blogging, I would post a brief missive about Ben Bernanke and how he got as close as any Fed chairman would ever get to calling a recession. While he didn't use the "R" word to characterise the present state of the economy, he did note today in his prepared remarks before the Joint Economic Committee that we could see the economy contract during the 1st half of this year.Yes, the Fed chairman who told us during the Spring of '07 that housing prices would continue rise for the foreseeable future; yes, the Ben Shalom Bernanke who told us last summer that subprime would be contained; yes, our Gentle Ben who told us earlier this year that the economy would slow but would continue to grow in '08 - conceded, with the President conveniently far away in Eastern Europe and the Treasury Secretary even more conveniently out of town for a visit to China - that we could be in for more than just sluggish growth.Gross Domestic Product contraction in the 1st half would be the fu...
More About: Recession

Newsletter Update
2008-03-15 17:27:00
We're still in the process of setting up the newsletter ordering system. My apologies for the delay. Some of the delay is attributable to the heavy news flow over the last several weeks. There has just not been enough time for me to devote to the newsletter project given my involvement in a few other projects. But eventually the newsletter will be set up. I thank all the loyal readers of the now defunct blog for their interest in the newsletter.
More About: Newsletter , Update

Happy New Year!
2008-01-05 22:14:00
Happy New Year to all who visited my blog in 2007.For 2008, I am planning a daily private newsletter to be delivered via user name and password (with some sort of modest subscription fee).The service will be offered through jimkingsland.com under the title of The Buttonwood Speculator. I plan to do what I did with the blog -- provide valuable information with a focus on trends impacting the markets (hopefully trends which others have not immediately noticed). From the feedback I received last year, my content alerted many to a variety of very profitable trading opportunities.The ultimate goal - to continue to stay ahead of the curve!When I left off last September, I recall stating that the market would retest its previous bear market lows of about 6 years ago in 2008. I still believe we see those lows retested, but certainly with bear trap rallies along the way that shall likely extend the market blood letting into 2009. With 4th quarter earnings/outlook season upon us, the reality ...
More About: Happy , Happy New Year

Limited Posting
2007-09-24 02:10:00
Folks, I have a special assignment that is going to take much of my time. Posting will be limited. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
More About: Limited

The Week Ending 9/22: S&P and Dow Up 2.8%
2007-09-22 17:12:00
A quick review of the week in some pictures (charts). A lot happened last week, but these are few things I wanted to highlight... STOCKS Many are claiming there's a new "Bernanke Put", meaning the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
More About: Week , Ending

Mattel's (MAT) Apologizes - I Guess Lead Isn't a Big Deal
2007-09-22 07:53:00
Mattel Official Apologize s in China What bothers me most is the quote in the Times article of Thomas A. Debrowski, Mattel?s executive vice president, who delivered the apology in Chiner (a little... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
More About: Deal , Guess , Lead , Polo

A Harman Crash and Burn - Down About 30%
2007-09-22 03:43:00
Depending upon which side of the trade they were on, someone is going to have a great weekend, and someone is going to be hurting. Wow, Harman (HAR) melts down, falling about $30 to $82.70. KKR and... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
More About: Crash and Burn , Crash , Burn , Arma

Once again -- That Made in China Label!
2007-09-21 22:04:00
Cribs Are Recalled Due to Suffocation Risk -- 2 deaths, though the parents are said to have put the crib together incorrectly -- but still, it shouldn't be possible to assemble incorrectly and kill... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
More About: China , Made , Label , Made In China

Goldman Raises Its Gold Target
2007-09-21 22:01:00
A friend sent me this snippet... " [We] expect gold to trade up to $775/toz on a 3m horizon and $800/toz on a 6m horizon" [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
More About: Gold , Target

Greater Minds Than Mine Speak Out...
2007-09-21 20:41:00
My good friend and former Bloomberg colleague Wes Richards is a wordsmith's wordsmith. He has some deep thoughts about the Nasdaq, which he says should now stand for -- National Asset Sold to Dubai... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
More About: Minds , Mine , Speak

"The Fed's Irresponsible Move"
2007-09-21 15:19:00
Vitaliy Katsenelson has some well rounded thoughts about the Federal Reserve that are in Business Week Magazine's Oct 1 Outside Shot op/ed section. This is a very good read about the whole issue of... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
More About: Move

Morning Market Buzz 9/21/07
2007-09-21 15:07:00
It's quadruple witching today featuring the expiration of four types of equity options and futures. Four Fed officials are also delivering speeches today. Ahead of the open, stock futures are... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
More About: Market , Buzz , Morning

Derivatives Better Explained
2007-09-21 14:06:00
Hat tip to commenter Rohit for bringing a great MSN Money article to my attention and its exploration of the heart of the matter for volatile markets: an flight away from highly leverage... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
More About: Derivatives , Laine

A Cure for Cancer in 2 Years?
2007-09-21 05:14:00
That's gist of press reports in recent days. Here's a report from the BBC and one from the Telegraph: Cancer cure 'may be available in two years'. Again, it's the immune system connection, which... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
More About: Years , Cure

Dollar Index Tumbles 2%; S&P Slips .67%; Dow Down .3%
2007-09-21 04:48:00
First, Greenspan on the Daily Show with Jon Stewart. Stewart does a great job interviewing the former Fed chief and seems to understand what really is going on... Link On to the dollar Wow, the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
More About: Dollar , Index , Doll , Slip

Crude Oil Surges Again
2007-09-20 21:00:00
Holy smokes.. crude jumped more than $1 to above the $83 level. Storm concerns and weak dollar. Oil price hits high over 83 dollars on the world market. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
More About: Crude Oil , Urge

Dollarama Dramamine Drama
2007-09-20 20:51:00
To the left is the dollar/Canadian-dollar pair (the CDZ07 futures contract)... simply amazing that we're seeing levels not since the early days of free floating currencies back in 1971. We're talking... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
More About: Drama , Lara , Doll , Dram

Lehman's Earnings Goulaush... mmmmmmm, Goulash
2007-09-20 20:24:00
It's better than donuts! There's a great read today in the Wall Street Journal.... On the face of it, Morgan Stanley appears to be suffering more indigestion from its voracious appetite for... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
More About: Earnings , Earning

Morning Market Buzz 9/20/07
2007-09-20 19:22:00
My, My, you just never know what kind of news is going to pop up overnight. This morning the markets are confronted with speculation over whether the Saudis are preparing to de-peg from the dollar.... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
More About: Market , Buzz , Morning

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators
2007-09-20 18:11:00
Relegate this to the back burner at your peril. The Index of Leading Economic Indica tors (LEI) is a very important piece of data that often gets buried. The quick definition is that the index is... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
More About: Cato

Quick Stocks To Watch
2007-09-19 21:24:00
After this, I will be out for the rest of the day and not posting until tonight. Goldman Sachs (GS) is on the earnings docket tomorrow. The Reuters consensus estimate for GS is EPS $4.37 and revenue... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
More About: Watch , Stocks , Quick

The Creditor Thieves of American Home Mortgage
2007-09-19 19:42:00
Truth is indeed starnger than fiction. Can you believe this one?!? American Home Mort gage pushing to seize $27 million in employee retirement savings. Ok, we all know the system has been rigged for... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
More About: American Home Mortgage

Morning Market Buzz 9/19
2007-09-19 16:48:00
Morgan Stanley (MS) reported an earnings miss this morning but Wall Street could care less. The crowd continues to be gagga over lower rates from the Fed. The bottom line number at MS amounted... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
More About: Market , Buzz , Morning

Options Trading Expert Larry McMillan Pulls No Punches
2007-09-19 15:59:00
One of the first emails I open up each morning is Larry 's Daily Volume Alerts. He had a few especially noteworthy comments: "The Fed's action once again prompted a huge rally. It's always been... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
More About: Trading , Options , Expert , Options Trading

The Coming Friday Quad-Witch Expiration
2007-09-19 15:58:00
While the stock market be vulnerable in the next few days to an overbought pull back, Friday 's expiration will be interesting. Goldman Sachs in a report this morning notes: "Again, we need to pay... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
More About: Quad , Witch