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cbaxter - finance and startups

cbaxter - finance and startups
A blog written by Christian Baxter - a financial analyst - about finance, ibanking, startups and other random crap.
Articles: 1, 2

Articles

Complacency
2009-03-09 22:13:00
This clipping from a professor (c. 1994) is classic. It cuts right to the root of flaws in our educational system. Granted, I am biased to my own experience, but I found the public system of lectures, bells and repercussions to be suffocating. It may have changed since, but I doubt it. This conditioning was ideal when graduates would leave for lifetime employment at a nine-to-five job that rewarded passive obedience. Unfortunately, the industrial era has long-ago passed and with it went the ability to hide behind the facade of smiles and nods. If we are again to succeed, companies need strong minds who are innovative and not fearful of expressing opinions. Granted education reform, no matter what form, mimics turning a battleship in unsteady seas, but I would like to see more entrepreneurship and creativity encouraged. We need more innovation, with that we can build the drones. share this post
Housing Price Impact on Household Income
2009-02-23 01:19:00
The deflation of the housing bubble (which was fueled by low rates and relaxed lending standards) triggered the current financial crisis and is now impacting Main Street through deteriorating consumer confidence. Falling home prices are a sure way to turn consumer spending levels toxic, but I think it is more than fiscal conservatism that is triggering decisions. I took a quick look at median home prices (and the year-on-year increases) and compared the gains to the average household income. The average consumer trend for the last 5-10 years has been to live comfortably, and then refinance surplus debt (credit cards, auto-loans, etc) into the home mortgage. As the mentality that home prices will always go up persisted, it became easier for consumers to associate home gains as additional household income that could be captured through refinancing. Although based on wide assumptions, the table below shows that consumer incomes were 10-20% higher due to average home price appreciation...
More About: Household , Income , Housing , Price
Building Facebook Connect into Wordpress
2009-02-21 01:03:00
This afternoon I took a shot at building some elements of Facebook Connect into this site. Overall, it was a fairly painless process and I think the results are pretty cool.  To borrow Facebook’s language, Connect lets you: Seamlessly “connect” their Facebook account and information with your site Connect and find their friends who also use your site Share information and actions on your site with their friends on Facebook In easier language, it means that this site can now recognize visitors by their Facebook profile (if allowed) and (if wanted) can now distribute information back to their profiles. For example, if you comment here you can elect to publish comments back to your newsfeed in Facebook. You can also invite friends to this community, share content back with Facebook, etc. This particular blog is running on Wordpress , so I used  a plugin developed by Sociable! to get it up and running. Their documentation covers the main steps, but to highlight so...
More About: Building
The Venture Capital Fund Structure
2009-02-19 23:55:00
Private Equity funds (including Venture Capital funds) are largely structured under a “2 and 20″ business model. This will run through a quick example about how it works from the Limited Parter and General Partner perspective. Limited Partner (LP): Invest money in the fund and include: pensions, investment managers, high-net worth individuals, etc. General Parter (GP): Select companies for investment and manage the portfolio until exit is realized (IPO, strategic sale, recapitalization) The 2/20 model says that the GPs receive a 2% management fee on committed capital (in this case, $100m) and 20% of any realized capital gains. The LPs, on the other hand, invest $100m into the fund and receive their initial investment plus 80% of the gains. These percentages can change, but they are fairly standard in the industry. The management fee is used to keep the lights on and pay salaries (supposedly) and the “carry” or 20% gains is the profit share. Now, in our exa...
More About: Venture Capital , Fund , Structure
Bad Apples (jerk, slacker and pessimist)
2009-02-19 05:57:00
I had a class tonight (Managerial Leadership) that was taught by a guest speaker, Tim Sullivan from Madison Dearborn. It was a great lecture overall and picked up on transitional leadership elements between the military and private sector, among others. One point that stuck out was regarding team dynamics. The research he brought up concluded that a team’s outcome is not necessarily dictated by the best performer, but more likely by the worst. This is sort of a weakest link analogy. Essentially, there were three team members you wanted to watch out for (or more importantly want to avoid being): 1) The Jerk - condescending, sarcastic, etc.  2) The Slacker - feet on the desk, late to meetings, etc. 3) The Pessimist - bad attitude, always negative, etc. Basically, if one or more of these characters are adamant in a given team structure, then a negative performance is more than likely. This was tested by injecting an actor into groups who convincingly played these parts and then ...
More About: Apples
Public Versus Private Markets
2009-02-18 20:38:00
I’ve been debating my stance on preference between private and public markets, specifically with respect to how I’m allocating components of my portfolio. I recognize that advice leads us down the idea that public market diversification is ideal. The logic that a 30+ stock portfolio is more diversified than holding only few companies is hard to dispute. This reduces the portfolio’s asymmetric risk (e.g. company specific risk). This way, if one company blows up, you hopefully still have 29 that are doing OK. The flip-side if that is if one does extremely well, you have diversified against the upside. This logic leads investors to the concept of the market portfolio, which is essentially a portfolio that owns every available stock and is fully diversified. This is closely replicated through Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and various global indexes. The premise here is that a market return (for example, 8%) does not compensate investors for ANY asymetric risk, which can...
More About: Markets , Public , Versus , Private
A Calvin and Hobbes Look at the Bailout
2009-02-11 21:47:00
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More About: Calvin , Calvin and Hobbes , Hobbes , Bailout
BankerBullshit.com - Sales Update
2009-02-11 04:49:00
Tonight I logged into my CafePress store, called BankerBullshit, and was surprised to see that sales are coming in for a few products! Hot items include Equities in Dallas shirts, Rainmaker Hats, and “Reach Out” shirts. I’m definitely surprised (but admit I bought a hat too). Apparenly a global collapse in the field of finance and investment banking drives sales in related, niche retail. I launched the store on the back of the Banker Bullshit Generator (crafted around 3:00am during my London banking days) and didn’t have any high expectations to generate sales. I was more curious about how the CafePress model worked from a resale perspective. Overall, I’m happy with it — but the UI / navigation is pretty terrible. And you guys are sending my checks to the wrong address (my fault)! share this post
More About: Sales , Update
IPhone Contacts Sync
2009-02-10 07:08:00
Google released a contact / calendar synch for the iPhone. I’m fairly sure it works, but do I really want all of my gmail contacts on my phone? They have always struggled with contacts (missing the boat on social networking - except in Brazil) and, in my opinion, since having that ‘auto-add’ feature. The result is thousands of contacts and not all of them remotely useful. Do I really want the guy who subletted my apartment stored in my local directory? I suppose the fault is mine for not wanting to scrub through the contact list. Not this week… share this post
More About: Iphone , Sync , Contacts
Google Latitude
2009-02-04 22:54:00
Google is rolling out Latitude , which is a location publishing service. Will be interesting to see how this performs across platforms. Will likely pull using contact numbers, since the Gmail contacts base is crude at best. Many companies will compete for this space and my guess is the best social network will win, since the technology is replicable but the social data is more difficult. share this post
More About: Google
Gotham Chopra, Virgin (Liquid) Comics
2008-10-03 02:59:00
Earlier today I had the opportunity to sit in on a Q/A session with Gotham Chopra, who was one of the co-founders of Virgin Comics . He’s had some incredible experiences and it was great to hear the entrepreneur’s take on the founding, and subsequent unwinding, of the comic book company. I am impressed that the pair, ...
More About: Liquid
Investment Banking Model
2008-10-02 18:15:00
The decision by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to convert into bank holding companies was one of the final blows to the traditional investment banking model. The massive losses from trading floors (traced to falling home prices and asset-secured holdings) were too much to carry for the stand-alone broker dealers. As the flight to quality ...
More About: Investment , Banking , Model , Investment Banking
Farewell Blogger
2008-10-02 04:46:00
Dear Blogger , We had many a fun post, but it is time that I bid you farewell. As the internet has grown more open and innovative, you seem to determined to evolve into the senile old man of the web publishing world. How is this possible? You’re run by smart people and sitting under an ...
More About: Wordpress , Farewell
Game Theory
2008-07-15 06:23:00
Today was a bit math heavy compared to the usual. I spent the morning in business decisions class - running simulations on exercises including poker hands and conditional probabilities. For the most part, I can follow along OK. The professor is considerably brilliant and, on a funnier note, is the go-to-guy for McDonald’s when they ...
More About: Theory , Game
Back online
2008-07-13 00:01:00
After a brief hibernation, I think I may continue writing a bit more frequently now. It’s likely the tone of this space will take a slightly new direction, as the last few months have resulted in a number of pretty big changes for me. The major change was that I left my position at HSBC in ...
More About: Online , Back
Domino's pizza tracker
2008-03-26 01:14:00
I just ordered a pizza from Domino's and was given a link to the Pizza Tracker - which an application that shows the real-time status of your order from prep to delivery. A few minutes after ordering and the pizza is in the oven - not bad.
Two. Dollars. A. Share.
2008-03-17 06:53:00
I can't believe that Bear is going for two dollars a share - - I understood that times were bad for the Company, but I saw no indication last week that times were this bad. This company has been around for 85 years and is now being sold at a fraction of its 20 year dated IPO price. I was expecting someone to buy this up, but not so quick and certainly not so cheap. The building is worth more! Granted this is just market capital (which would likely have been zero under a Chapter 11), but still surprising. I would not want to be the accounting firm that has to due diligence the liabilities on this one.With Japan down 4%, I think we can expect a bloody Monday and another interesting week. Great.
More About: Share , Dollars
Format your website for iPhone
2008-03-14 03:31:00
Mofuse has a quick application that will translate an RSS feed /website into a mobile format. I made this blog into an iPhone format here (takes about three seconds) - even keeps the fav icon for adding to homepage. I also like how it offers a link to full HTML.
More About: Website , Iphone , Format
You take the high road, and I'll take the...
2008-03-14 01:57:00
Bono, lead singer of the rock band U2, is famous throughout the entertainment industry for being more than just a little self-righteous.At a recent U2 concert in Glasgow, Scotland, he asked the audience for total quiet.Then, in the silence, he started to slowly clap his hands, once every few seconds. Holding the audience in total silence, he said into the microphone, "Every time I clap my hands, a child in Africa dies."From the front of the crowd a voice with a broad Scottish accent pierced the quiet..."Well, f--cking stop doin it then, ya evil bastard!"Link
More About: High , Road
Hulu is out to play
2008-03-13 01:02:00
Hulu is now out of private beta. I've been addicted to this web service (I never hooked up cable in my apartment) and this has become a go-to website for following The Office, House and an occasional episode of COPS. The new version also has an expanded movie library and a selection of HD. This product (earlier post here) took a lot of abuse when it first came around...dubbed Clown Co, but seems to be working out for the better. I only hope that the advertiser list expands (eternally brainwashed by Royal Caribbean and Nissan).
More About: Play , Hulu
LimeStore
2008-03-12 03:33:00
LimeWire released their music store, which is a web-based iTunes/Amazon competitor. My friend Jeff is on the development team - nice work.
Hoes, Oh No
2008-03-11 16:32:00
The storm is brewing for New York's moral crusader Elliot Spitzer. I have mixed emotions about this one - - considering I liked him as a politician and did look up to his ability to take action with a just cause. I think Fred Wilson captured it with his references to the pedestal; nobody is perfect, although it is surprising to see this level of blatant self-destruction. I mean, come on - as attorney general this guy was busting up prostitution rings.Regardless of the scandal that will likely usher in his political ruin, he has certainly left his mark on Wall Street. He was the player that pursued the billion dollar fines to the banking industry and pushed for the separation of investment banking and research. It's likely a few of his counterparts - Dick Grasso and the like - won't miss him too much.Some good news I can see is that New York's next governor may not veto the state's Segway bill. Spitzer wrote the personal vehicles off for New York City. I've been trying to get t...
Banker Bullshit meets Cafepress
2008-03-09 16:52:00
I recently played with Cafepress, which is an online market place that lets you develop and sell products without dealing with manufacturing, inventory or billing. The process to launch a store was actually pretty fun and only took a couple hours to set up. The Company offers both free and premium options and takes a healthy margin on all products sold.As an experiment, the store is currently targeting the financial community with finance-based jargon, similar to what you'd find in the bullshit generator. For example, you can get a 'rainmaker' hat or a 'let me reach out to you' shirt. If I feel inspired, maybe I'll add some more.In the meantime, I must disclaimer that wearing a rainmaker hat is not guaranteed to increase your bonus, but in this market anything might help.Note: Also launched a bookstore using Amazon's Associate program. Maybe more on that later.
More About: Bullshit , Banker
No more fake handbags
2008-03-05 18:55:00
I was walking in Chinatown the other day - on the way to grab some dim sum, when I came across an entire block was boarded up on Canal Street. Large orange signs proclaimed the area as closed by court order.This is normally a hot-pocket for commerce, with heavy traffic, dollars flying in and fake handbags flying out. Turns out that Mr. Bloomberg backed a sting operation to help shut down the so called "Counterfeit Triangle." Apparently, under cover agents have been working the scene for the last two months buying up knock-offs and building their case.The end result was the closure of 32 shops and more than US$1m in counterfeit goods confiscated. I'm all for closing down counterfeit operations, but it is strange to see something that has always been out in the open branded as a criminal offense (insert comparison to online file sharing services here). More often than not, law enforcement in New York City has turned a blind eye to these illicit activities - but apparently this is ch...
More About: Handbags , Fake
Webapps that I actually use on the iPhone
2008-03-05 03:10:00
I've played with a number of the offered web applications for the iPhone, which are essentially websites that run on the native mobile version of Safari. Most of the self-developed sites are - not surprisingly - completely useless (i.e. cost/sq ft calculator), but there a handful that I find myself using regularly.FacebookFacebook has released a great interface for the iPhone that uses tabs to segment and display information. This approach has worked so well for the Company that it is now migrating the interface to the primary website - which will hopefully cut down on the chaos/clutter factor injected by the viral spread of applications (at the expense of publisher page-views). Downside is limited functionality, but it still has more capability than the recently released, and less impressive, Linkedin interface.TwitterI've also started playing with the Twitter interface again for mobile devices. Although so far I'm fan of the application (it feeds to this blog - see right), I h...
More About: Iphone
Perpetual motion stained my kitchen
2008-02-07 02:22:00
I set up a perpetual drinking bird for fun last night. It was on the refrigerator. I forgot about it and went to sleep. When I woke up, the drinking bird had walked off the refrigerator and fell on the floor. I did not know that drinking birds could walk.The red-dyed methylene chloride - which evaporates at room temperature - spilled onto the tiles, eroded the coatings and stained everything bright pink. I have no clue how to clean this up.Update 1: Apparently, nothing cleans this. I have tried household cleaners, bleach and various mops and sponges. I have resorted to sanding the tiles down - I'm about 1/5 of the way there.
More About: Kitchen , Motion
Hulu
2007-12-04 04:10:00
I've been playing with the beta version of Hulu and - basically - it's an awesome product for web-streaming television. It's entirely web-based and, because of its media owners/partners, has access to great content. I just watched a Family Guy episode and might catch an episode of House. I also like how the advertisements are short and (compared to standard television) non-obtrusive.I think this is going to very popular when it opens up and I'm interested to see how the embedding will play out. I'm definitely not surprised that networks are pulling from iTunes since this is a platform that is financially more traditional (advertising based) and more open (no need for proprietary format or software).
Phew
2007-11-01 22:42:00
Life has been a bit insane lately - and I didn't dress up forHalloween because I worked past 3am the day before. In retrospect,now, I'm a bit pissed (not in the British sense), because it's easilymy favorite holiday. I like holidays that don't make any sense and arecreative and fun – and, more importantly, not covered with thefingerprints of corporate influence and consumption - although,clearly, candy companies probably have their own teams of lobbyists.It's also an exciting time around the water cooler - with Googlechatting up networks about launching their blandly named gPhone andFacebook shopping their SocialAds platform, which will be worthbillions and billions in the long term. I love owning Google's stock(now over 700 bucks) and I'm going to love owning Facebook's stockeven more.On another note, I'm a bit worried because I may have lost thereplacement crab in the fish tank. I'm also seeing some dreaded algae.Shit.
Rocket and tank update
2007-10-29 05:11:00
As a quick update, the rocket is almost there. Will have to schedule a test launch in the next couple of weeks (although likely out of state, since it's apparently illegal in NYC). I've been debating launching from my window, although consensus seems to indicate that this isn't the best idea.Also, the fish tank seems to be working. Today the replacement crab went in (still not sure where the other one went), along with a few new fish. Also, the Lego scuba diver is there too.
More About: Tank , Update , Rocket
Prism and the offline internet
2007-10-26 22:30:00
Mozilla is playing with a just-released lab project called Prism ,which is a method for getting web-based applications (Gmail, Facebook,etc) out of the browser and onto the desktop like the installedapplications of long ago. Although it appears to launch the apps in abrowser window without the navigation bar, it does allow forintegration into the start menu and (ideally and eventually) a morerobust interaction environment - i.e. drap and drop betweenapplications, etc.Google has been playing with Google Gears for quite some time, whichis its foray into ensuring its applications (like Reader) can be runduring offline sessions. MSFT is in the reverse position, having tomigrate it's current desktop application on to the web - or justrewrite them under the Live umbrella.This movement is interesting because - when you follow it to the end -you are left with applications that have the benefit of simultaneousweb-accessibility and local reliability. Add a web-based storageelement (there a...
More About: Internet , Offline
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