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My "Fave 5"
2008-05-19 18:52:00
Like I have told you time and time again, its a bull market. Here are my mid-day thoughts as I survey the damage I have done in the last few hours. I love solar stocks. CSIQ is responsible for adding a double digit percentage return to my bottom line, effective today. I can't recall the last time that has happened. Oh wait, yes I do. It was BSC. It was also HUM. Next will be CLF. Anyway, thus far it is the Trade of the year, at least until I find the next one. I spent the morning selling out of TSL and FSLR to establish a position in JASO. This is the only one I could find that potentially has enough movement in it to justify my purchase. Ethanol is running, according to a valuable source. I am looking for an entry in stocks like PEIX, BIOF, AVR, RTK, or VSE. Here is my "Fave 5" from last nights list. If you so dare as to make a comment about how you missed these trades, thank yourself...don't blame me. VIP- Russian Telco is Back. Up 7% thus far. ACH- Finally. Been tracking...

Market Commentary
2008-05-19 03:39:00
Here is Saturday's commentary I wrote for Investools.com. My watchlist will be out later this evening.High oil prices sent stocks south this morning on this option expiration Friday. However, a late day rally brought stocks back to the same levels in which they closed- relatively unchanged. The Dow finished lower by 5 points closing at 12,986, while the NASDAQ lost 4 points finishing the day at 2528. The S&P produced a one point gain, ending the week at 1425. Overall, this was a very positive week for the stock market, led by the NASDAQ, which produced a 3.4% increase this week.Oil prices are, and will continue to be the markets top concern in the intermediate future. As prices are trading at all time highs, so are average fuel prices. The markets concern is that these conditions will put added pressure on the consumer in the future and stunt their spending patterns. However, government stimulus checks started arriving in the mail over the last few weeks. We've discu...
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A Great Contribution
2008-05-17 02:47:00
I pulled the post below off the discussion board earlier today. This comes from a guy who might be my biggest supporter, and was with me since the initial launch of www.optionaddict.blogspot.com over two years ago. Bob "Raimo" has been a long time supporter and contributor of the Option Addict community and I thought this piece he put together should be front page material. Bob, this is an "instant classic." You have a heart of gold dude, and may the market gods shower you with riches for your good will and intentions. Thanks for your never ending loyalty and support. Bob, while you are at it, get EB back in here with you. Enjoy!I knew nothing about trading, the stock market, never heard of an option, a put or a call, nothing. After retiring from my businesses in 2004, I Met Phil Town, and found myself in an IT class. I worked hard, studied, but still could not get it. But I knew I wanted to do this…..in fact I was hooked…..and since I am ...
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Auto-Pilot
2008-05-16 16:18:00
As you know its Friday, and I try not to do too much damage to the market ahead of the weekend. In fact, there is a tee time with my name written all over it.Oil prices are trading at a new all time high. Again. Over the last 10 days, the market has developed an inverse correlation with crude oil prices. I am not sure when this will give, but I am not sure I care. This isn't preventing our stocks from making new highs.Steel, Solars, Dry Bulk Shippers, Tech, etc continue to rally, which makes these so-called "Market Declines" bearable; not to mention- profitable.Even Gold stocks are rallying. Which was the only down note on the week (except the minor set back in NYX, and hesitation in V). Most of which gave low risk put option opportunities a few days back. They made some good strides and now appear to be right back at these action points, if not higher. Take a look at ABX as an example and tell me what you see...Not to mention most of the others I bought into a nasty...
More About: Auto , Pilot

My Apologies...
2008-05-15 19:47:00
The technical difficulties are being addressed. I appreciate your patience....

Long NYX
2008-05-15 19:06:00
June 75's. Two portions, please.
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Selecting Your Strike
2008-05-15 16:14:00
Although I have written about this topic numerous times, questions have surfaced recently that have motivated me to tackle it again. I am going to give you a few thoughts on how to select option strikes.Honestly, for those that think I stare at an option chain, and run through a bunch of option greeks with my calculator in hand before making a decision, you are wrong. In fact, if you do analyze an option that way, get me some footage to watch so I can laugh at your expense. Selecting an option is not something I think about in the process, it just happens. It is and should be instinctive. The longer it takes to get your act together during the process of pulling the trigger, the more slippage is likely to occur. The good news is that once you pick the right stock, it won't matter which strike you own. They'll all make money. However, some strikes will make more money than others, and some will require more/less capital down at the time of purchase.In-the-moneyMost expensive choice...
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Market Commentary
2008-05-15 00:50:00
Again, please excuse my absence today. Occasionally, life has a way of getting in the middle of things. With today's sell off I might be spending some time re-positioning my account as we head towards expiration. Hopefully you enjoyed the great moves I solar that I told you to take down yesterday. That was a nice source of gains while the market shift felt worse than it looked.I'll be back in full force tomorrow, starting with a few words on "selecting strikes."Here is the most recent "Market Commentary " at Investools.com...Market Commentary Jeff KohlerDespite a late day sell off, stocks finish the trading day higher. The market has been fearful that high energy prices might have curbed consumer spending. However, today’s Consumer Price Index report concluded that inflation has been somewhat contained, as the Labor Department reported a better than expected increase in the CPI. This is taking into consideration the fact that food prices have seen the bigg...

A New Update; So Much Closer
2008-05-14 19:56:00
Folks, Had a dilemma of sorts this morning. However, I will have a few words to make up for it shortly.Stay tuned...
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New Update Coming Shortly...
2008-05-14 16:06:00
Be patient. I am going to re-visit the topic of "selecting strike prices," again. I also have a few more trade ideas developing.
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"Market Commentary"
2008-05-13 16:05:00
Market Commentary from Investools.comJeff KohlerThe market finds itself off to a running start this week, thanks to a pull back in oil prices. This timely news gave investors a reason to buy back into stocks, consequently running the Dow up 130 points; closing at 12,876. The NASDAQ finished the session up 42 points, closing at 2488, and the S&P 500 nailed down a 15 point gain, closing at 1403. This rally was broad based, as 9 out of the 10 market sectors finished the session in positive territory today.One of the most bullish advances in the broader market today came via a surge in Consumer Discretionaries. Retail companies, led by Wal-Mart (WMT), posted gains on the day based on positive retail sales rumors that surfaced this morning. This news gave the market some reassurance that the consumer is still spending money, despite inflation and credit woes.Lately I have been keeping a very close eye on these consumer discretionary companies, and been following the price action in t...
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Once...Twice...Three Times; Maybe.
2008-05-12 20:43:00
Rolling Blackouts in the Mid West have prevented me, on more than one occasion, from posting my thoughts here today. Not once, but twice. Therefore, my motivation has since left me to invest the same amount of energy on this particular post as I have lost on the prior two.Here are a few thoughts I have...The action point on the SPX was likened to a "force of nature." As prices rallied without cause (except for the pull back in oil and the rally in the dollar).I am taking a few profits off in RIMM, which was broke out in a fast and furious manner today. I hope you all have been heeding my advice and have been stockpiling calls and shares of stock in preparation of today's event. To be honest, I was hoping for more than a small handful of 10-baggers today. Last week was great for my critics, but today I am getting the price action I want, but not the explosions in response. However, I will applaud GNK, RIMM, SINA, CNQR, GMXR, LULU, ANSS, TBSI, CSIQ, ABX, and LVS for their s...
More About: Times

Short: BIDU
2008-05-07 21:55:00
To the goodly readers, contributors, and pikers at Option Addict, I apologize for my lack of involvement here today. As of late I have tried to "step my game up," posting actively and often, with content-rich offerings.  I have even tried to occasionally enlighten, humiliate, and playfully interact with all of you in the discussion boards and comments section of each post.Today the market precipitously drops, and I decide to conveniently "take a break" from blogging.Truth be told, there is no correlation between the two. Honest. I am in between a few deadlines, which has kept me from my new usual schedule. As I survey the damage that has take place within my accounts today, I find myself posting a daily loss (3%) for the first time in several trading sessions. I am deeply saddened and more so disappointed.The reason: I was very busy today and didn't take any offsetting positions, or take losses as quickly as I should. In the end, I was forced to t...
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Long: BIDU
2008-05-07 16:01:00
Most of you knew that, but I had nothing else come to mind this morning. I am going to be wrapped up for a few hours, so this offering serves as a place to deposit your insights and comments. Use it wisely.Note: The "Top Picks" from my last Market Commentary article are performing quite well today. Most notably GNK, BIDU, and CLHB to the upside and GME and WYNN to the downside. I still like ILMN and TSCO even though they aren't up to par today.LM- is trading on some amazing volume, but not moving. I'm watching closely, and have a very tight leash on this. I almost ready to risk nothing on it.P.S- Glad we took a few profits in CTRP and SOHU...and that I went long the US dollar....and "yes" I am still buying dips.
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"Thanks"
2008-05-07 05:38:00
For the late night support that was tendered at my eager request, I humbly thank you. As I mentioned before, your reward is forthcoming. In the meantime the poll has been removed and our mission, albeit vague, was a success. Thank you, The Option Addict

Update: New Poll
2008-05-07 02:53:00
I have not the time this evening to fill in the details of this mysterious poll that is located on the left hand navigational column of OptionAddict, but the details are unimportant. I have been asked to lend a hand in supporting "Alpha" in a voting tonight. Therefore, please support me in selecting "Alpha" in the new poll. Your reward is forthcoming.Thank You,The Option Addict
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Trade of the Day
2008-05-06 20:20:00
I am "going silent" for the remainder of the day to knock out this article I have due. However, rather than leave early with a sense of unfulfillment, I will leave with a trading idea that you can all admire, scoff, and "miss the boat on," as a whole.Victim: Legg Mason (LM)Legg Mason posted their first ever loss today. To read more about it, click here.Here is a recent chart that should speak pretty clearly... There was a lot of volume involved near this short term top, which happened to correspond to the overall longer term trend of lower highs and lower lows. However, in the short term move towards resistance, there is an obvious trend of higher highs and higher lows...  Even though the move today is extreme, I still think it is easy to manage risk at this price. My "pain threshold" is $61ish, and my target price is $52. Risk 2 to make 7.I am dipping my toe into some June puts. May puts have been selling like hot cakes today in comparison ...
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Suggestions
2008-05-06 18:53:00
I am up against a deadline today for Equities Magazine, and I am not totally sold on the topic. I try to write articles on trading strategies, general trading acumen, or tecnincal analysis in my column titled "Kohler's World." I have been debating on writing about bottom fishing in financials (financials=this months theme) or an in depth article on trend trading. As you can see, they are just luke warm ideas.I would like to hear some suggestions. Whether I choose them or not, I will add them to my "list" for future deadlines.Thank you.

Market Commentary
2008-05-06 17:52:00
Here is the article I wrote yesterday at Investools.com Updated Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday morning, pre marketMonday's Close for May 5th, 2008by Jeff Kohler Stocks traded lower across the board in Monday's session. The Dow Jones finished down 88 points closing at 12,969, while the S&P 500 finished down 6 points closing at 1407. The NASDAQ also finished lower by 12 points closing at 2464. The biggest story that sent the averages into a tailspin was that Microsoft (MSFT) has officially withdrawn its bid for Yahoo (YHOO). As a result, MSFT finished the day down $0.16, closing at $29.08, while YHOO finished the day down $4.30, closing at $24.37. I can't count the times I have been asked throughout this process "What is the best way to play this acquisition?" My advice to each question I received was not to play it at all. In these situations, if you are not in the trade when the announcement is made, it is best to stay away. In the end, this dramatic, drawn out, and anti-clim...
More About: Commentary , Market

"Epic" Bull Picks
2008-05-05 21:31:00
As a result of being challenged this weekend via some obnoxious dickwad, I decided to step up my game this week with picks that could only be explained as "clairvoyant." Normally I am not this quick to follow up or justify my "picks," but I am doing this to prove a point. This time, it is personal.Before reading this post, please make note that the market traded lower as a whole today.There was only one price pattern that confirmed in this weeks watchlist and only a few breakouts that took place. Otherwise, this is my list of "dips" that I included in my watchlist last night, or in other words; here is this weeks "Epic " bull picks.CLR- 51.03   7.20 (16.43%) MVL- 32.98   2.73 (9.02%)WLT- 81.66   8.71 (11.94%) JRCC- 26.00   1.91 (7.93%) CLF- 167.68   10.09 (6.40%)SPN- 50.26   2.93 (6.19%) TBSI- 46.06   2.01 (4.56%) VMI- 106.12   3.5...
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Update: "The A-List"
2008-05-05 19:31:00
ANR- 55.00   4.47 (8.85%) APA- 132.41   3.60 (2.79%) AKS- 67.69   1.97 (3.00%) ACI- 61.63   2.38 (4.02%) AG- 55.05   4.13 (6.98%) "Epic" indeed, especially with the overall market bleeding today.
More About: List , Update , A list

Too Late For a Little Weekend Reading?
2008-05-05 19:12:00
I know it is no longer the weekend, but the intent was that this article would have been posted Saturday morning at Investools.com. Enjoy.Updated Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday morning, pre marketFriday's Close for May 2nd, 2008by Jeff KohlerIt's a Friday night and I find myself ready to relax from an exhausting, exciting, and productive week. Yet joyfully, here I am. Let's re-cap what has been accomplished over the last week:This was a particularly important week for the market as the focus shifted from corporate profits to an "all eyes on the Fed" event on Wednesday. The fed funds rate and the discount rate were both cut by .25 basis points, and after positive news on GDP, personal spending, factory orders and employment numbers, the market is starting to believe that interest rates have reached their ultimate destination and the next move by the Fed will be to do nothing at all. If this is the case, the market will continue to respond in a bullish fashion.As a result...
More About: Reading , Weekend , Late

A Lesson on Exits
2008-05-05 18:44:00
A remark arose from the comment gallery this morning on the topic of how I teach exits. Rather than spend lots of time answering questions and justifying my trading or teaching skills, I will leave that up to the thousands of readers that have read about my approach to exits. I would leave a poll, but hindsight would weigh in favor of the obvious. If you have a comment about this example, feel free to let it fly.Case Study: SIIThis was a watchlist stock that showed up quite some time ago, and the trader of this stock closed out of this trade recently. Let's start with a 1 year chart.SII- A textbook breakout and a re-test of old resistance as new support. A dish commonly referred to as "bread and butter" around here.For those that know my entry exit rule, you take the trade at support (at the level in which you would exit the trade if it goes against you), and if the stock breaks down by a reasonable amount, especially with volume, you exit the trade. If you don...
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Closing Bell: End of the Line
2008-05-02 20:21:00
Here is what I have time to tell you, so make sure you are listening carefully.Typically I like to bask in my own personal glory on a Friday, and treat myself to a prosperous meal and a nap near the closing bell. Today is obviously different, but I don't want to discuss that situation any further for fear of consequences that could further ruin my mood. Instead, allow me to modestly re-cap the week:Another solid watchlist this weekI was finally redeemed in my several kind requests to purchase shares in anything Brazil (EWZ, PBR, RIO, GGB, BBD, ITU, SID). China has not been as explosive in general (FXI), but good thing we were only tracking pre-determined winners such as SOHU, CTRP, LFC and BIDU.My relative strength play in Ag machinery as opposed to Agriculture has been fairly solid. I like the set-ups in the favorites such as LUFK, BUCY, and JOYG. You'll hear more about these on next weeks watchlist. We all know the Visa story... I won't touch on this anymore...
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Update
2008-05-02 16:54:00
Here is the deal...I am sure by now you have figured out the news that has been "dropped" about my employer.As a result, lots of things are happening today.I have plenty of things I plan to discuss and follow up on today; but you'll have to excuse me for a little bit while I do a little damage control.The Option Addict 
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Scan Results: Bottoms
2008-05-01 23:17:00
Look over this list and leave some suggestions on where you might optimize results.I will publish this search at Investools shortly.
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Proofs...
2008-05-01 21:55:00
Conviction into the close, strapped with volume. Buy dips."It's On."
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Best Case Scenario
2008-05-01 18:23:00
Commodity prices are in the process of being taken out to the Woodshed, the dollar has blasted through its resistance, and Technology, Homies, Financials and all things Consumer are kicking ass and taking names today. It is critical that you get with this move.On to more important matters; "The A-List."Yesterday's announcement was exactly why I decided to go with these positions through this week. I was looking for a non-news event from the fed, which would have been the best of both worlds and would have sent these stocks back to their highs one last time. However, after the market sat and meditated over this news last night, and Earnings reports came in abysmal (energy) and the tides have changed. These positions have all soiled themselves, and have been distributed freely to my well deserving neighbors.Strategy: Look to sell tops and buy bottoms. I am working on a search/scan today that should prove useful in the weeks to come, but it is imperative that I create i...
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Market Commentary- Thursday
2008-05-01 15:49:00
Below is the Market Commentary I wrote this morning at Investools.com."Fed Day" has come and gone and frankly, I am a little perplexed as to what I have just seen happen and what the Federal Reserve plans to do next. In case you missed it, the Fed decided to lower the federal funds rate and the discount rate by a quarter percentage point down to 2%, and 2.25% respectively. If you haven't been paying attention, in 2008, the fed funds rate has plummeted 2.25%, while the discount rate has been slashed by a total of 2.5%. This is the largest reduction in both rates in such a short period of time. The market fully expected this rate cut, but not by a unanimous vote. In fact, the concern was not whether or not we would see a rate cut, it was what the Fed would say in regards to inflation and the outlook on future rate cuts. As money managers have re-positioned their portfolios in anticipation, and as retail investors have taken profits in precaution, what did the Fed have to sa...
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The Visa Trade
2008-04-30 15:55:00
It was asked that I shed some light on the Visa trade that I shared with everyone a couple weeks ago. Here is a quick recap, since there won't be much to do for the next few hours...The initial trade was discussed back on April 18th under the "comments" section of my daily post. Here is a copy of the chart that shows the trade over the last few weeks and how I have treated it...1. The trade was taken in anticipation of a breakout back on 4/18. I bought May $75s for $1.80, and it was fairly early in the day. prices were moving beyond the IPO price of $69, and I wanted to be a part of the breakout.2. I held up until earnings. I followed my rules to reduce my position and sold half.3. After hours during the earnings call, V was down as much as 5%. It was at that time I had told you my next move...4.The next morning I waited for the morning madness to cool down and backed up the truck. I tightened my stop which was initially back at $67 up to $71 and tripled my position....
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