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Articles: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7

Life Takes "Visa"
2008-04-30 01:38:00
After having devoured the dip in "V" first thing this morning, I was issued my new Visa card (Thanks Eric H.). For those that hopped on board today, or have been following this trade from inception, your new card should be in the mail. The 75's that were purchased 3 weeks ago for $1.40 are now trading at $6.80.Well Done.
More About: Life

Looking Good...
2008-04-29 20:28:00
I like the price action in the Q's heading into the close... QQQQ: 30 D, 30 M chart.I've been long the market for several weeks, and I am thinking that my stance will continue. Caution: However, don't let my rosy sentiment blind you from the fact that no matter what positions you have heading into tomorrow, you are going to get one of these... May the Market Gods have "mercy" on you all.
More About: Good

Game On...
2008-04-29 19:32:00
The last big video game to hit stores was "Halo 3" which was discussion point here long, long ago. If you haven't yet heard, the next big game that is making its way through the homes of unsuspecting parents is "Grand Theft Auto IV." It is supposed to be the most popular game of the year, maybe ever. Thus far it has sold $400 million in the first week.The news prompted me to take a look at the gaming industry. Gaming hardware is primarily developed by MSFT (Xbox), SNE (Playstation), and NTDOY (Wii). Gaming software companies include TTWO (GTA 4), ATVI (Guitar Hero) and ERTS (Various sport games). However, there has been a consolidation within this space. ATVI was purchased by Vivendi several months ago, and ERTS has an ongoing offer to purchase TTWO, which has been pushed back to the release of this new game; GTA 4. Here is what I read on Forbes this morning...Take-Two Interactive Software (nasdaq: TTWO ) has fended off advances from Electronic Arts (n...
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Market Commentary
2008-04-29 15:50:00
I wrote this last night on Investools.com, and figured I would post it here also.Even though it is not any fun, it is not uncommon to see market activity and volume die down ahead of a FOMC announcement. Monday's trading didn't bring about any drastic price action. Therefore, I refuse hold my breath for any conviction in Tuesday's tape either. The market is lying in wait of some direction and comments from those that determine the fate of our monetary policy, inflationary conditions, and weakening currency. The expectation is a rate cut sooner or later, but it is how the committee addresses their stance and future outlook of our monetary policy that concerns most market participants. Once Wednesday afternoon comes and goes, you'll see plenty of money moving back in and out of stocks. That I can promise.In the process of lying and waiting, I have noticed that the VIX has finally closed below $20, which is telling me that the market is becoming very optimistic in light of all...
More About: Commentary , Market

Monday's "A-List"
2008-04-28 08:48:00
If you are not on this weeks "A-List ," you don't know what you are missing. Good luck making any money without it... ACI- Coal exposureAG- Agriculture (machinery) exposureAKS- Steel exsposureANR- Coal SupplierAPA- Crude and "Natty" Gas exposure 
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The Next Chapter in the Gold Story
2008-04-25 16:32:00
Last week or so I brought up the topic of Gold and Gold Miners. Not to mention I wrote a piece about them in Equities Magazine. The biggest topic of conversation around the ATM machine lately has been what the future holds for the yellow metal and how to position yourself for the unknown.Last night on the Marketcast I discussed the reversal pattern that has been setting up over the last few months; the head & shoulders pattern. I tried to be optimistic about it a few weeks ago by taking a long position back when the dollar tested relative lows, but the damn thing has sold off like crazy ever since and is now scrubbing the floor at $87. More importantly, see how volume has reacted to the last several declines. Not to mention the warning sign that I ignored; relative weakness... (USO vs. GLD comparison) A very high correlation has existed up until recently...Bottom Line: I am still long, but laughing. The trade looks done. Even if prices move favorably, they won't be nearly...
More About: Story , Chapter

Closing Bell: Vasoline
2008-04-24 21:51:00
It isn't you, isn't me... Search for things you can't see. Going blind, out of reach... Somewhere in the vaseline. Note: Keep an eye on BIDU after the bell. MSFT should also come out swinging. If the PCU, BUCY, CF earnings are strong, this might be another reason to "buy the dip" in these stocks tomorrow.
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ICE Baby!
2008-04-24 18:42:00
If we reach $160 today, I will take profits on a portion of the position.
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Search Results
2008-04-24 18:23:00
I ran an old favorite "scan" of mine, which I don't do very often...and I figured I would share the results.See if you can spot the unanimous "theme" within the results.Click here to download
More About: Results , Search

Reality Check
2008-04-24 17:03:00
I woke up this morning and I realized something that I hadn't ever noticed before. I have been bothered with the fact that something in my life has been different for quite some time. It has been a constant nagging at my well being, and wakes up with me every morning, follows me around all day, and goes to bed with me at night. I have not been able to put my finger on it, or truly understand what it was, until today. This morning I had an epiphany or a vision if you will...I am bored.For the life of me I cannot recall a time where I was ever this bored with trading. I am tired of the routine, I am tired of the results, I am tired of reading every analysts interpretation of the market, I am tired of the retards at CNBC, I am tired of reading and hearing the same old news, I am tired of looking at the same old charts, and I am tired of talking about the same old BS (that stands for bullshit). This market has been irritating, irrational, and unbelievably uninteresting. These cond...
More About: Reality , Check

"Of ICE and Men"
2008-04-23 17:15:00
Here is a quick follow up to my post about ICE yesterday.ICE- A quick look at the chart and this looks like a nice "rounded" bottom.If you recall...there was a big buzz over the same pattern in AAPL recently...And we all know how AAPL has performed...Don't see the similarities? Line them up...Similar? Definitely. This was just an observation of patterns and wanted to see if anyone recognized the similarities. I went long yesterday at the close. My stop (mental) is a close below $150. My plan was to scalp a few bucks ahead of earnings. The options were relatively cheap enough to do this. I bought May expirys. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

Buy China
2008-04-23 16:49:00
I haven't talked about this trend much, ever since it collapsed at the end of last year...but the recent news and the charts are telling me to get long China . It looks like the bottom might be in. Here's my "Fave 5..."FXI- A diversified approach to China stocksACH- Aluminum ready to break out.LFC- About to confirm a bottom.YZC- A coal shortage has this thing gapping and running like crazy for the last three days.SNP- Volume is picking up behind this move higher.

New Investopedia Article
2008-04-23 15:54:00
For those that want to learn a little more about how I trade breakouts, I have a new article that made the homepage of Investopedia today. Visit www.investopedia.com or click here to read it. 
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ICE'd Out
2008-04-22 21:10:00
I have been on overload so far this week, and a sell off in the market has caused a "hush" around here today. There has always been a correlation with market drops and comments, but I had thought today's market drop would have an inverse correlation due to the fact that most of the bullishness around here has been in energy, oil, steel, nat gas, and a few odds and ends here and there. I came into this week positioned to the bullish side and even with the averages down 1%, I have walked away smiling.As we approach the end of a quiet day, here is something to think about....the exchanges.Take a look at ICE. See anything? If so/not...would you trade this?No poll today...just leave a comment if you have something to contribute. If not, you can "hold this" over earnings.

"Not So" Volatile Market Open House
2008-04-18 20:14:00
The last Volatile Market Open House is happening today. Reserve a seat while they are still available.Fri, Apr 18 at 5PM, EST Volatile Market Spotlight with Jeff Kohler Register for Live Click here to registerOr copy and paste this into your browser...https://investools.webex.com/mw 0304l/mywebex/default.do?siteurl=investoo ls&service=6&main_url=%2Fec0509l% 2Feventcenter%2Fmainframe.do%3Fmainurl%3D https%253A%252F%252Finvestools.webex.com% 252Fec0509l%252Feventcenter%252Fevent%252 FeventAction.do%253FtheAction%253Ddetail% 2526confViewID%253D152087848%2526siteurl% 253Dinvestools%26siteurl%3Dinvestools
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I Love the Smell of Profits in the Morning
2008-04-18 17:06:00
What a great week. Two weeks back from vacation and I feel "back in action." It was a hell of a week, which officially catapults me back into my "zone." I am going to spend the next few hours mingling in the "comments section" (mine) and back handing folks in the "discussion board" (yours). I am also going to start the process of researching next weeks "winners," but won't release a video until Sunday.While I am writing this the Dow is +235. My bet was +300 and I have a wheelbarrow of mini's on the line. Be of good "cheer" and buy stocks to make it move higher.For lack of any real substance today (its Friday), here's a quick recap of the week on "Option Addict"...It was a great week for Agriculture stocks, but an even better week for Agriculture machinery (DE, CAT, JOYG, BUCY, RSTI). Most of these stocks were up 10% or more on the week.Casino stocks were sold Monday-Thursday. This little ral...
More About: Love , Morning , Profits , Smell , In The Morning

Closing Bell: GOOG on Parade
2008-04-17 22:36:00
And there you have it... we go higher.
More About: Bell , Parade

Tip My Hand
2008-04-17 17:14:00
Before I left for vacation a couple weeks ago, my portfolio had a liquidation sale. I set a few stops on a few positions, especially my stock positions, and got filled on a few, but for the most part I walked away from the market with only a small portion of cash invested. This means that I have been in "re-build" mode for the last 2 weeks. Over that period of time, and through my watchlists/group spot lights, here is what I have come up with...LongFMC, ANR, UNG, DBA, GLD, POT, BG, MTL, SCHN, CLF, BUCY, JOYG, FSLR, SQM, NFLX, FXE, OXYShortMGM, LVS, IGT, MTD, CAH, CALM, CMA, HOLX, ARTC, XLMost of these trades I have been in a week or more, and some of the more recent positions are smaller in which I plan to add. A few things you'll notice about my holdings....I'm heavily invested in Casinos and Commodity related stocks (smaller position sizes).I'm bullish (nearly 2:1 in favor of calls/long stock positions).I closed out a lot of put positions over the last two days a...
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I Almost Forgot...
2008-04-16 18:43:00
I also told you to watch for the next leg down in the Dollar this week...FXE is running again...but I am sure you noticed.Combined with the discussion on bullish divergences and bottoms in GLD, its been a knockout week.

Sector Spotlight: Machinery
2008-04-16 17:52:00
I mentioned in my watchlist this weekend that this week would offer good opportunities in the Agriculture Machinery group. Thanks to stellar reports and forecasts from LUFK, these stocks are banging out new highs today. I had also mentioned I liked these much more than I liked Agriculture stocks (in the short term). I think know that there are better returns to be had in machinery over the next couple weeks. Act now before it is too late...BUCYJOYGDERSTILNN
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Do You Know What You're Doing?
2008-04-16 16:24:00
A recent "discussion" on the discussion board about being profitable has opened my eyes as to what has been going on out there within the community. As some readers have shared their results, it is apparent that these market conditions have been tough on some of them. You can see that in the level of participation, lack of familiar names, etc. However, as I have done this over the last 2 years I have noticed that there are always going to be people that are losing money. Even during what some would consider an easy market, there were always fatalities. Whether is is due to a lack of risk management and diversification, or improper position sizing, not fully understanding the strategies they are participating in, or applying a trading system/strategy/approach that doesn't work.In my opinion, losses are an important part of trading. However it is up to you to determine how much of a loss you take before you start to realize and figure out the reasons behind them. For m...

Soft Bottom?
2008-04-15 17:56:00
The run-up this year in commodities was a violent one- especially in the grain market. After a massive sell off in soft commodities it looks as if futures prices have consolidated long enough to have formed a bottom. Looks like it is time to get long again...Anyone watching DBA?
More About: Soft , Bottom

Quick Thought
2008-04-15 16:56:00
So far another relatively quiet day across the averages. With various financials kicking out earnings this week, it is important to watch option volumes leading up to these announcements. As you know, this has only paid off about three times in the history of this blog....but its always worth the gamble. In essence you are looking for evidence of someone who knows something and has bet big on it. Speaking of which, when you are watching option volumes that are telling of big moves, always look at front/next month options and look for volume levels that are significantly greater than the amount open interest. If you want an example, go back to the post I did about BSC options before the meltdown. Later in the day I am going to talk about why "investing" might be better for you than trading.
More About: Thought , Quick

Follow Up
2008-04-15 01:31:00
The market was fairly impotent today. However, none were as flaccid as www.optionaddict.net. Each Monday typically establishes a new 52 week high in regards to "hits" (Even those that don't like to read me show up for the trade ideas each Monday). Today was different. Nobody showed up today. It was the biggest contraction in traffic that I have ever seen. I found that to be very interesting. Could that be in correlation to the new comments technology? No way, but regardless I am in awe.In regards to the topic of going long or short Gold/Gold Miners...I'd do neither. Especially when it comes down to NEM. There are plenty of others out there that look better in my opinion (BVN, GOLD). I found a way to meet my deadline on my Equities column, but imagine having to write 1500 words when you wouldn't do anything with the topic at hand. Sux.The safe play here is that the commodity trend continues higher; especially in Gold. The dollar is going to continue to weaken (DXY), ...

What Do You See?
2008-04-14 18:35:00
I am up against a deadline today for Equities Magazine, and the topic is Gold & Gold Miners.Yes, I know. Fashionably late.Gold has reacted exactly how we've discussed in the past...but as of late, what do you see in the charts?I have found a few things that I am almost finished writing about, but wanted to use this as an opportunity for a discussion.What see you?

Weekly Watchlist
2008-04-14 05:54:00
For all the recent suggestions I have received lately that have begged me to switch over my watchlists to a written format and cater to the wishes of a select few who are getting fed up with having to hit "pause" to jot down ticker symbols...I have decided to extend the print version for one last week. Not so much as to cave to your requests, but to tease you with the convenience for one last week.As far as the market is concerned, this upcoming week will include plenty of economic data, including retail sales (tomorrow), PPI, CPI, and housing starts. All of which can give the market a little turbulence. Most importantly there are a lot of finanicals and important tech names announcing earnings this week. There are plenty of companies that could make or break the market, so make sure you know who is up to bat by checking out an earnings calendar.In my presentation on Friday I mentioned that I really like ETFs over the short term; especially those l...
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Volatile Market Open House
2008-04-11 19:38:00
Same bat time, same bat channel...Fri, Apr 11 at 5PM, EST Volatile Market Spotlight Register for Live Or copy and paste this link in your browser...https://investools.webex.com/mw 0304l/mywebex/default.do?siteurl=investoo ls&service=6&main_url=%2Fec0509l% 2Feventcenter%2Fmainframe.do%3Fmainurl%3D https%253A%252F%252Finvestools.webex.com% 252Fec0509l%252Feventcenter%252Fevent%252 FeventAction.do%253FtheAction%253Ddetail% 2526confViewID%253D195349196%2526siteurl% 253Dinvestools%26siteurl%3DinvestoolsIf you have a topic you would like to see discussed, that is relevant, leave me a comment. I'm open to suggestions.
More About: House , Open , Open House

Watchlist Teaser
2008-04-11 16:51:00
First off, thanks to all of you who have been patient through some of the changes in technology. Most importantly, a big thanks to Tim who has helped me with these changes. I appreciate it, Tim.I will be further organizing this site over the weekend, which will include a new video tutorial, a new link that explains how to proceed on the site, etc. This ought to direct traffic a lot better and fulfill my vision of what I am trying to do here.Anyhow, I wanted to kick off the day by looking over a few charts...the topic is triangles. These are a few that you'll see on next weeks watchlist.IDXX-  I am surprised that this hasn't broke today...but it will. Once it does it is good for a 4-5 point move. I find it hard to anticipate trades in symmetrical triangles, because they are the most unreliable pattern as far as direction is concerned- so don't anticipate here.CYN- Yesterday the volume was there, but the breakout wasn't by a significant amount. Now that this trade has opened ...
More About: Teaser

Feedback
2008-04-10 21:18:00
Per this week's conference call, I have decided to tweak the way comments are displayed under each of my posts. I am experimenting with this first before I touch the discussion boards. While this is not yet set in stone, I like this for a few reasons...I feel it organizes conversations better.I can see names/avatars for easier recognition- plus I love creative avatarsI can offer "clout" points. While I don't plan on taking points away, I will choose to add when I feel a great point has been made. I think everyone should start with this philosophy in mind.It is new, and with most people, comfort is not something people like to give up...however I feel this will get very easy to get used to. Either way, I want to hear your opinion... 
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The Event Horizon
2008-04-10 17:14:00
I am not much of a breakfast person, but I am rapidly becoming a brunch person. I am not much of a cook either, but I dabble on an insignificant scale. I am tried a new recipe today, one that I will share with you. I am calling it "The Event Horizon ." 4 eggs, scrambled 1/2 cup fiesta blend shredded cheese A hearty portion of Pace Picante (HOT) Diced jalepenos 1 Earl Campbell brand Hot Link, sliced Wrap that bad boy into a tortilla and serve with a chilled Monster Java or Rockstar Punched. Later in the day you'll realize how I arrived at the name. As I look across the market this is exactly the stuff I had talked about on the Marketcast...under reacting to the bad news and over reacting to the good news. Based on today's price action, how can you not be tempted to buy the dip here? SPX- The next dip that is being bought todayQQQQ- Tech leading the waySOX- Pour out a little liquor for the Semis...XHB- ...And one for my "Homies."XLY- I mentioned this fund on ...