Vigilant Investor Vigilant Investor Surfing the Great Credit Bubble and its unwind. Discussions about how your investment evironment and economy are changing. Don't be a fall guy! 
Articles
The Grand Illusion on Gas Prices
2008-06-06 22:39:00 Ok… So the author of this piece uses a little rhetoric to make his point. Our only issue of disagreement is that we believe there’s also a Peak Oil problem. In other words, the Federal Reserve Note “dollar” is dropping rapidly — true enough. But Boone Pickens is correct — supply is a ...SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: "The Grand Illusion on Gas Prices ", url: "http://www.ernharth.com/vi/2008/06/06/th e-grand-illusion-on-gas-prices/" }); More About: Economy , The Grand
Investor, Know Thy Fed!
2008-06-05 21:33:00 Here’s a link to an interview we did on Vigilant Investor Live in 2006 with The Creature from Jekyll Island author, G. Edward Griffin. Now that we’ve seen the collapse get into high gear over the last ten months, its time to revisit the great game that goes on in Wall Street after every bubble bursts ...SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: "Investor, Know Thy Fed!", url: "http://www.ernharth.com/vi/2008/06/05/in vestor-know-thy-fed/" }); More About: Economy , Finance , Book Review , Inflation
Waters Suggests Nationalizing U.S. Oil Companies
2008-06-02 02:49:00 That liberal (Maixine Waters) is all about wrecking the U.S. economy. Goes to show how politicians act like spoiled little children, and with very little understanding of economics. Needless to say, if Maxine has her way, we may as well get into the rickshaw business. SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: "Waters Suggests Nationalizing U.S. Oil Companies ", url: "http://www.ernharth.com/vi/2008/06/01/wa ters-suggests-nationalizing-us-oil-compan ies/" }); More About: Global Warming , Economy , Finance , Inflation
CFTC to Announce Rule Changes to Address Commodity Prices
2008-05-31 04:50:00 This is truly worrisome. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is set to release new rules on Monday: “The (CFTC) has been wrestling for more than a year over farm industry demands that it examine the role that new financial investors are having in the futures markets, especially those who are investing through commodity index funds. As ...SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: "CFTC to Announce Rule Changes to Address Commodity Prices ", url: "http://www.ernharth.com/vi/2008/05/30/cf tc-to-announce-rule-changes-to-address-co mmodity-prices/" }); More About: Economy
Congress Contemplating Pulling a ?Mugabe? to Hide Inflation
2008-05-22 03:54:00 It didn’t take long for Congress to make an emphatic point that it does not understand the value of a free market, or for that matter, that it fails to comprehend the importance of a freely operating pricing mechanism. Said another way, Congress is proving its members to be the economic jackasses they’ve generally ...SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: "Congress Contemplating Pulling a “Mugabe” to Hide Inflation ", url: "http://www.ernharth.com/vi/2008/05/21/co ngressmugabe/" }); More About: Economy , Commodities , Currency
Ignoring the Dollar Problem in the Price of Oil
2008-05-19 04:30:00 No doubt, there are quite a few problems behind why oil has jumped above $128 a barrel. Never mind hooey arguments about greedy oil companies that resonate with the economic illiterates among the loudmouth media and the complaining voters. While we don’t have much good to say about any politician on the matter of energy, we ...SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: "Ignoring the Dollar Problem in the Price of Oil", url: "http://www.ernharth.com/vi/2008/05/18/ig noring-the-dollar-problem-in-the-price-of -oil/" }); More About: Economy , Finance , Real Estate , Commodities , Inflation
I?m shocked, shocked that there?s gambling going on here!
2008-05-16 21:24:00 This is too ripe. From the Financial Times: ECB voices ‘high concern’ over liquidity scheme By Paul J Davies and Norma Cohen in London and Anousha Sakoui in Vienna Thursday May 15 2008 17:45 The European Central Bank on Thursday voiced its “high concern” at growing evidence that banks are exploiting its efforts to unblock the frozen funding markets ...SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: "I’m shocked, shocked that there’s gambling going on here!", url: "http://www.ernharth.com/vi/2008/05/16/im -shocked-shocked-that-theres-gambling-goi ng-on-here/" }); More About: Economy , Finance , Inflation , Housing Bubble , Currency
Sowing the Seeds of Inflation and Dollar Degradation
2008-05-16 00:42:00 “The Federal Reserve as other central banks is obviously taking onto its balance sheet a lot of mortgages these days.” “Well, the creators of the Federal Reserve system would be rolling over in their graves if they knew the Federal Reserve is buying mortgages.” – Former Federal Reserve Chariman Paul Volcker Whether or not the creators ...SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: "Sowing the Seeds of Inflation and Dollar Degradation", url: "http://www.ernharth.com/vi/2008/05/15/so wing-the-seeds-of-inflation-and-dollar-de gradation/" }); More About: Politics , Economy , Regulation , Finance , Real Estate
3rd Down: More Bank Failures Anticipated
2008-05-11 20:01:00 Its always a small sidebar in these type of crisis: the banks too small for the big guys to care. Rather than being bailed out, they simply are absorbed at pennies on the dollar by the big boys whose hands are firmly in the till of the Fed. Only three banks have failed year to date, ...SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: "3rd Down: More Bank Failures Anticipated", url: "http://www.ernharth.com/vi/2008/05/11/3r d-down-more-bank-failures-anticipated/" }); More About: Economy , Finance , Housing Bubble , Currency , Debt
Eye of the Economic Storm Showing Signs of What?s Looming
2008-05-09 19:28:00 You have to love Alan Greenspan. Today he’s quoted as having declared the worst over for the credit crisis during a speech in New York. Yet, at the same time he still thinks housing has a long way to go down, and will not be hitting bottom by year end. Well, which one is it ...SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: "Eye of the Economic Storm Showing Signs of What’s Looming", url: "http://www.ernharth.com/vi/2008/05/09/ey e-of-the-economic-storm-showing-signs-of- whats-looming/" }); More About: Economy , Finance , Housing Bubble , Currency
Bailouts, Inflation, and Dollar Destruction
2008-04-17 17:21:00 “I think we were really on the verge of a financial collapse of unbelievable proportions that we haven’t seen since the 1930’s.” – Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill describing the Bear Stearns bailout in an April 16, 2008 interview on Bloomberg Read that quote again by Paul O’Neill – because, yep folks, that’s really where things stand. Our financial system effectively patched together by an inflationary, money printing band-aid. And, as the real estate markets in England, along with those in Spain, Ireland, et al. continue to melt down, we maintain our belief that the whole fiasco is far from over. (Our regular readers know we said the same when conventional pundits said the worst was over in 2007). The interesting thing about economics is that people have been conditioned to believe in the charade that it is a mysterious, complex, science – and to be successful at understanding it, explaining it to the great unwashed, and at running la... More About: Destruction , Inflation , Dollar
Too Much Fiat Currency and Credit Has Broken the Pricing Mechanism
2008-04-08 20:51:00 The consequences of the massive credit bubble that’s now unwinding were inevitable. (Don’t buy the Wall Street and policy maker excuse that nobody saw it coming. We were early among those saying this would blow up in the face of Wall Street and the Fed, and threaten the entire economy.) And so the ... More About: Economy , Credit , Fiat , Currency , Broken
Rogers Updates The Markets: The Fed is the Core Problem
2008-04-08 20:20:00 Rogers speaks the truth. Recall, Rogers was the original thinker behind the Quantum Fund (which made George Soros) back in the 1970s. He was right then, and he’s right now. Of course, he’ll be ignored and the free market will continue to get blamed for the problems created by the price fixers ... More About: Economy , Commodities , Markets , Updates , Core
Feeding that Nasty Expanding Money Supply Addiction Won?t End Well.
2008-04-03 22:30:00 When your dealing with an addict, you don’t trust their word when they say they’re going in the right direction when they won’t admit they even have an addiction problem. That’s the problem with our financial system. Consumers are addicted to credit and money supply expansion policies. Wall Street enjoys the comfy ... More About: Economy , Money , Inflation , Addiction , Oil
U.S. Great Depression?
2008-04-01 19:18:00  Leave it to the British to hit the economy with such a bold declaration. Granted, in the United States all policy makers are very fond of saying something to the effect that this situation and the subsequent policy reactions are the most drastic since World War II. World War II? We think this is a polite way of saying “since the Great Depression ,” while hoping folks won’t go all panicky on the situation as they load their bunkers and prepare for the worst. Granted, contemplating the concept of “bunker” has been more or less what Vigilant Investor has been doing since April 2005 — which by the way, today marks our 3rd anniversary since going full bore on the internet. Prior to that we published to our client base only as the Ernharth Wealth Report discussing the emerging Great Credit Bubble with issues dating back to 2001. But what of this Great Depression talk the British press had jumped on? Let’s take a look. &nbs...
Your Money Backs More Bad Debt
2008-03-26 22:52:00 Regulators “are playing with fire,” said Allan Meltzer, a Fed historian and economics professor at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. “With good luck, none of these liabilities will come due. We can’t expect that good luck, and we haven’t had it.” – Bloomberg (March 26, 2008) The reason you want solid collateral to secure a loan is ... More About: Economy , Regulation , History , Finance , Money
Bailout Junkies
2008-03-21 18:32:00 We?ve continually warned about the bailout addicted U.S. Another voice of clarity and reason all along has been Bill Fleckenstein. As usual, he nails it in his latest commentary, ?Catering to the Bailout Nation.? BTW, Bill?s recently released book Greenspan’s Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve ? is definitely worth ... More About: Junkies
The ?Big Rip-Off? continues?
2008-03-18 21:33:00 With today?s 75 basis point rate cut ? we see continued evidence as to whom the Fed really serves. As we have long said, it?s not you and I ? it?s the Big Wall Street Banks. The ?Big Rip-Off? of your savings continues. Jon Markman gets right down to it? Share This
The Perils of False Paradigms III
2008-03-18 12:15:00 That was on March 11, just a few days go when Bear Stearns was trading on the close at $62.97… Cramer has since clarified he wasn’t talking about the stock, but rather those with money in the bank, so to speak. But this wasn’t the first time: ?This is a liquidity issue, not ... More About: Economy
How Ugly? Great Depression Ugly!
2008-03-17 17:13:00 A list of articles worth perusing to grasp the depth of our problems: Fed takes boldest action since the Depression to rescue US mortgage industry Fears That Bear Stearns?s Downfall May Spread Another Source of Quick Cash Dries Up Jim Rogers Says Fed Support of Bear Stearns `Outrageous’: Video U.S. 3-month bill yield seen lowest in ... More About: Global Warming , Economy , Finance , Inflation
Greenspan?s Latest Attempt at Handwringing: A Point by Point Critique
2008-03-17 16:57:00 Seems like Sir Al can’t try hard enough to absolve himself from the monster he created with the tools created by The Creature From Jekyll Island. Here are our thoughts on Honest Al’s latest comments. We will never have a perfect model of risk (By Alan ‘Master of obvious” Greenspan) The current financial crisis in ... More About: Economy , Book Review , Inflation , Currency , Debt
Bear Stearns Bailout Kicks Off Another Crazy Week for the Economy
2008-03-17 15:43:00 It began last summer with the implosion of two subprime oriented hedge funds, one leveraged 15 times, the other 10 times. In the end, investors of the 10x fund received about 9 cents on the dollar, while the 15x was wiped-out altogether. Today it comes as no surprise that the rumors were ... More About: Economy , Crazy , Week , Bear Stearns , Kicks
Sir Alan Greenspan?s Image Rusting Away
2008-03-14 20:33:00 ”In retrospect, it’s easy to see how we got into this mess: Easy money fueled a stock-market bubble and, after that popped, more easy money saved the day, stoking a real-estate frenzy that crashed in surging U.S. home-loan defaults and losses exceeding $188 billion at banks and securities firms.“ Hindsight is 20/20 not just for the ... More About: Economy , Image , Alan Greenspan , Greenspan , Alan
Super Genius Hedge Funds Dropping Like Flies
2008-03-07 22:17:00 Well… Hedge funds were supposed to be the super geniuses for the mega rich… and then downward they trickled to the filthy rich, and then the super rich, and eventually the rich, the neveau riche and the Me-Tooue Riche. Well, we said last summer when Bear Stearns blew up that none of these super geniuses were getting it, and we’ve been saying that before and since. Just read our archives and don’t buy that “nobody saw it coming” rubbish because that’s a half-assed excuse for neglect, hubris, vast volumes of conceit (at those pointing out this inevitability) and downright greed. So here we are. At what point the conventional wisdom shifts in this country to comprehend how severe the U.S. and Global economic situation is is unknown to us. Until then, read the cards: You can weep, or you can play ‘em right. Your Choice. In the meantime, all those who jollied around using the contemptuous term “tin foil hat wearing crowd&rd... More About: Super , Flies , Genius , Funds
Things Turn Ugly for U.S. Consumers
2008-03-06 19:10:00 We’ve been exceptionally busy with our real careers (that don’t involve writing) which you can imagine is keeping us from doing as much writing given what’s transpiring in the economy and markets as we speak. What? You haven’t heard?  Well, here’s a list. And for those of you looking for answers, please just leaf back through the past few months of our writing and you’ll have a good idea of not only what, but why this is happening — as well as some serious insight about vigilant thinking for your future. If you can’t take the time to investigate, well… You have only one other choice! That said, here’s our list of current crisis points, victims, et. al. with some occasional commentary: U.S. Unexpectedly Lost 63,000 Jobs in February - Bloomberg (03/07/2008 07:45 AM) This should come as no surprise to anyone.  The job numbers, while rigged to carry momentum on the upside long aft... More About: Things , Ugly , Turn , Consumers
Home Equity Lines Frozen due to Liquidity Crunch
2008-02-27 21:13:00 Share This More About: Video , Economy , Home , Crash , Bubble
Mortgage Fraud: House Sold Three Times Comes with Dead Original Owner
2008-02-26 18:27:00 The new buyers of a rundown graystone on the South Side showed up Jan. 9 to look at the house they won at a foreclosure auction. They took the plywood off the front door and went inside to make sure the utilities had been shut off. Then they called the police. Sitting upright in the corner of a bedroom off the kitchen was a human skeleton in a red tracksuit. Next to him lay a dead dog. Neighbors told police the corpse was almost certainly Randy Johnson, a middle-age man who lived alone in the North Kenwood house. The rest of the story is from the Chicago Tribune… A tale of just how deeply mortgage fraud was was ingrained in a housing bubble rife with the compounding dislocations inherent to massive money supply and credit growth.  The problem is still in the early innings and will take years to cleanse from the economy — unless the Fed and Congress try to wash it away with more money. We expect lots of the latter. Share This More About: House , Fraud , Mortgage Fraud , Original , Mortgage
Moody?s (No, Not that Moody?s) Downgrades MBIA
2008-02-21 19:22:00 Hey everyone! It?s me, Melissa Moody ?not that other Moody?s you have been reading about. Actually that?s why I?m here I?m just so sick and tired of that other Moody! Their ratings stink, and they don?t know nearly as much as I do about debt, it?s true, I?m maxed out on 4 out of 7 credit ... More About: Finance
Credit Turmoil Spreads
2008-02-21 00:23:00 This Credit Crisis Has a Long Way to Run Jeremy Grantham, Chief Investment Strategist, GMO, has a few things to say about what’s transpiring in the credit markets and the very negative implications it has for the U.S economy. Among the high profile managers, he was earlier than most in calling the looming crisis. ... More About: Economy , Spreads
Benjamin Graham on Hot Tips
More articles from this author:2008-02-19 15:53:00 Here’s a little tale passed down from Guru Benjamin Graham . “Let me tell you the story of the oil prospector who met St. Peter at the Pearly Gates. When told his occupation, St. Peter said, ?Oh, I?m really sorry. You seem to meet all the tests to get into heaven. But we?ve got a terrible problem. ... More About: Economy , Tips , Housing Bubble , Crash 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 |
|
 |
|
 |
