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Timing Market Turns

Timing Market Turns
Stock Market Index turns are called in advance of each major and minor turn for Investors and Swing traders. We use algorithms, our models and technicals to determine direction from each of these objective turning points, or Time Locus points. Our t
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Global Markets Down Strongly
2008-03-17 07:38:00
TODAY - We are publishing these comments from our membership site (delayed a wee bit). Patience and a clear head will keep your perspective real and sound. WBB 0145 EDTSome will criticize the Fed and Bernanke for any reason that comes to mind. But remember, that this is a game of NOW - not yesterday. Many screamed about lowering interest rates faster/earlier/ more dramatically, but that wasn't the solution. It may have helped for a few days but not for long. If a derivative cannot be valued nor traded for price discovery, then what is it worth? How much should the Fed secure to liquidate something no-one knows its tradable or even intrinsic value? This is the nature of the Sword of Damocles hanging over the Fed Chairman, the man who studied the causes and federal government acts that caused Crash of 1929 and the Depression (thank goodness he studied it). But remember that there was the causes to study like the effects the Republican Smoot-Hawley Bill that Hoover was against but ev...
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Friday, Nov. 2 - Reversal
2007-11-03 02:12:00
Here is an excerpt from today's comments.November 2, 20071630 EDTThe markets close on a rally based on a rumor of staffing changes, then the announcement of a weekend meeting at Citi. We don't see a low for Citi for several months - potentially in April 2008. It may be a swing trade, but we would not hold Citi until it touches another extremely oversold level above $31 in the months ahead.WBB1530 EDTWe will exit our short index Swing positions in the three indexes at today's closing. Time Loci have been updated for all indexes and ETF's.We will enter 100% long in the Swing positions for SPX, Dow and RUT at today's closing. We will enter 100% long in the NDX Swing position but we expect a slightly lower low in Monday's morning session for NDX. Positioning for NDX may wait for completion of the current downward intraday structure. Further, we expect a higher opening for all four indexes we trade at TimerTrac.We are expecting to see upward action for the next 3-5 trading days.Ber...
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FOMC Day - September 18, 2007
2007-09-18 13:12:00
September 18, 2007___________FOMC DayWe expect the normal lateral pre-announcement track for the indexes today. We still believe that the FOMC will not change rates, but if Fed Funds is lowered we would prefer a 25 basis point cut.Credit Liquidity Crisis - Rate Cuts Are Not the Way OutLet's repeat a lesser known fact. The Federal Reserve does not regulate banks. It regulates bank holding companies. It uses an indirect tool, interest rates, to attempt to control the supply and availability of money and credit in this economy.The Federal Reserve does not control or regulate the investment banks, like Goldman Sachs, or brokers, like Merrill Lynch. National banks, investment banks and brokers created this financial bubble. They loved it when their bubble was growing and glowing. Now, they just don't want to use their own capital to clean up their mess when the bubble burst.They want to use our Federal government's capital mop and bucket.Big Cut - Big Bear?If the FOMC lowers by...
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Will you be Short? I hope so.
2007-09-13 20:57:00
September 131420 EDT"Trade what you see, not what you believe you see."What do you see? What do you see on the daily chart? on intraday charts?I see a daily sell on momentums, an hourly sell on sentiment (daily has been on a sell). But the biggest sell signal is the volume. Where did it go?It does not really matter if the indexes go higher or lateral from this hour of Tuesday, September 13th. I trade with confidence, but am rarely sure.At this point, everything I know and see is telling me to be short - as short as you can be (not catastrophe, or end of world).There are a few times in a trader's or investor's life when they see the plain written word and signals to enter a market and take 1,000+ Dow points home with them in a few days. Further, after taking that 1,000+ points in a few days, the trader or investor has the opportunity to do it again by reversing the position.In this situation, it is be short now, then be long at the lows in a few days. In my view, this is like knowi...
More About: Hope , Short
Lateral track into FOMC Meeting, Sept. 18th
2007-09-13 04:54:00
Timing Market TurnsW. B. Busin Group Publishing Current positions - 100% shortIt doesn't matter if the FOMC cuts the Fed Funds rate and possibly cuts the Discount rate again. It doesn't matter if the FOMC doesn't cut rates at all. The straw man has been assembled, dressed in sacrificial sack cloth and trudging to the financial gallows. The Fed will be blamed no matter what it does.That is like setting your house on fire and blaming the Fire Department for not stopping you. Several weeks ago in this TimerTrac newsletter, we projected the 10-year Treasury Note yield to touch 3.94% and possibly 3.80% at the low of this stock market correction. We believe that those projections are still on target, as the Note yield closed today at 4.408% after breaking late 2006 support at 4.40% last week.Tap on this Link to the 10-Year Note yield chart:http://www.market-timing-wbbusin.co m/10yearNote09122007MarketTimingbyW.B.Bus in.htmlIf the stock indexes and Treasuries walk quietly laterally tow...
More About: Track , Sept , Meeting
100% Short
2007-09-10 21:01:00
September 10, 2007We will enter 100% short in the Swing positions in all indexes at today's closing.This intraday decline should not retrace to the opening highs. Between now and 1500EDT the indexes will likely attempt to reach that level. We expect an massivemomentum divergence to begin the next leg downward.If you are looking for a short entry for a position, the potential of a high near1500 EDT appears to be the best intraday Timing Locus. The NDX hasremained the strongest in these counter rallies and the RUT breaking downquickly.The divergence should be plain to see for all indexes but the RUT maybe the earliest and point to the selling entry a few minutes earlier than the otherindexes.We expect this decline to proceed into the September 18th low and to set in agrand splash of a low. This should at least challenge the August 16th lows forthe senior indexes (Dow and SPX) while the NDX should drop well into newlows and approach the "end of Bull market" level.We will hold this sho...
More About: Short
Alert
2007-09-10 06:59:00
This update is exactly the text we sent to subscribers today. It includes the two previous updates from Friday, September 7, 2007.Today is Sunday, September 9, 2007Good afternoon,1715 EDTWe are 25% long in the Swing positions for all covered indexes.We are 100% short in all indexes in the Investor Core positions, producing amarket neutral portfolio position.It is rare to receive a message from us on a Sunday afternoon as long timereaders know. This message is the result of nearly 2 days of data analysis andapplication of several filters to the results of our models. That is not how wespend our weekends. I don't like this trade. I don't believe I have ever said that before in this newsletter.I did not like this current 25% long Swing trade but entered it as the signaloccurred on a Time Locus and sentiment is in neutral allowing for an upwardmove. As I discussed it with Group members, we began looking at the datapoints in all the indexes, verifying intraday and daily structural...
More About: Alert
Simple Solution to an Ancient Problem
2007-09-06 17:57:00
This story applies a simple solution to the current credit seizure and market fears that are prevalent at many investment houses today. From FOXNEWSRussian Mayor Bans Phrase 'I Don't Know'Wednesday, September 05, 2007The mayor of a Siberian oil town has ordered his bureaucrats to stop using expressions such as "I don't know" and "I can't." Or look for another job.Alexander Kuzmin, the 33-year-old mayor of Megion, has banned these and 25 other phrases as a way to make his administration more efficient, his spokeswoman said Tuesday."It's a suggestion to the staff that they should think before saying something," Oksana Shestakova said by telephone. "To say `I don't know' is the same as admitting your helplessness."To reinforce the ban, a framed list of the banned expressions has been hanging on the wall next to Kuzmin's office for the past two weeks, Shestakova said.Some of the other prohibited phrases are "What can we do?" "It's not my job," "It's impossible," "I'm having...
More About: Problem , Simple , Ancient , Solution
Timing Market Turns
2007-09-06 06:59:00
September 5, 2007We exited back to cash at today's closing after entering 50% short in the Swingpositions in the indexes (25% short NDX) on Tuesday's closing. We wereshort last week from the closing on Friday, the 24th, and exited the 31st beforethe long weekend at breakeven.We are expecting an upward bias toward Monday in a choppy lateral nature.We expect that the action between now and the Fed meeting will get a wee bitmore volatile, as the guessing about a rate cut, or the news of trouble of anotherCDO vehicle comes forward.SentimentWe expect our Daily Sentiment Index to remain in the neutral zone for severaldays as the indexes slog toward the Fed meeting. Daily Index Sentiment ChartPerformanceWe are maintaining a steady rise in all the Swing accounts, as seen here in theSPX Swing position. Here is our verified Performance Graph from TimerTrac.We remain 100% short in the Investor Core positions, portfolio hedged to100% neutral, for all indexes.Rate Cut?We don't expect the FOMC...
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What's Next? Market Crash? Downward? Upward? More lateral?
2007-09-02 19:02:00
September 4th is the next major Time Locus for the indexes. What will it be: a high or an acceleration point; or the least likely, a continuation of the past week's lateral move? We believed it would be a market turn at a low. It won't be viewed by us as a low unless the SPX/NDX/Dow close near or below their Monday, August 20th intraday low. We do view last week's action as the potential end of a lateral (consolidation) phasing. We have stated since the July highs that the swings have been shortened by volatility, weak volume patterns and by extreme moves in our proprietary market sentiment indicator. The Daily Sentiment Index continues to show much faster movement just as the intraday sentiment has exceeded 80 (bearish) and 20 (bullish) several times last week. Last week reminds us that the normal 3-5 day swings are still under compression to a 2-3 day swing length. The extremes marked intraday highs and lows in index structure and form.Investors are fully hedged to portf...
More About: Market , Crash
Bernanke's Speech - No Cure for SubPrime Market Melanoma
2007-08-31 20:06:00
Bernanke's Speech - No Cure for SubPrime Market Melanoma If you expected the announcement of a Fed Funds rate cut, you are probably adisappointed residential housing speculator. If you expected some straight talkabout the mortgage backed securities mess, you are likely to be a somewhatsatisfied investor or trader.What you may have missed is the ongoing reality expressed in recent data, suchas GDP, Jobless Claims, Personal Income/Expense, NAPM, Factory Ordersand Consumer Sentiment/Confidence.In my view, these data reflect what we have been stating to readers throughoutthis "credit crisis". The stock market's downturn is a normal correction in a Bullmarket. It's not the beginning of a depression or recession. It sure could be ifthe Street doesn't or isn't willing to take the cure.Nothing has changed dramatically in Peoria.It's still pretty normal out here, beginning 50 miles away from lower Manhattan.We still have low unemployment, the consumer is still spending at a normal pace,...
More About: Subprime
W. B. Busin Intraday Monday, August 27, 2007
2007-08-27 21:00:00
1500 EDTThe formation and technicals for the NDX and Dow are showing a differencewith SPX and RUT.The SPX/RUT are exhibiting weakness while the Dow/NDX are showingsignals that may produce an upward move from this time toward the closing.The move may include higher highs than Friday's closing high. This is just apotential for intraday traders and Swing traders.We expect a similar narrow trading spread for tomorrow's morning session.The downward bias to tomorrow's action should be more evident than today's.If price does not begin to decline with more momentum, we may be incorrectfor the direction.In general, we expect the market to retest near the recent lows as a any finecorrection will do. We are still monitoring the parallel to the 1998 correctionand its time variance. The time variance may be quite large with the aggressiveintervention by Chairman Bernanke and the New York and San FranciscoFed's.It may have shortened the entire correction by weeks. In 1998, Greenspan didnot i...
More About: Monday , August , Onda
"All Along The Watchtower, Bernanke Kept his View"
2007-08-21 22:29:00
"All Along The Watchtower , Bernanke Kept his View "Dylan wrote it, Hendrix covered it immediately, Matthews reprises it in 1999. Bernanke could be listening to one of the three versions (below) on his I-Pod. The allegory is simple and yet likely to ignored again in a few more years.I like the Chairman a lot. I like what he's done and how he's done it. In fact, he may have done a wee bit too much too early, but I'll let you decide that in a month or two.I'm bullish, very bullish - beginning in October this year. We have been discussing the correction since May. Would it be 1987 or might it be 1998? The 1987 pattern dissolved as the 1998 pattern came to prominence, and a grand scheme it has turned out to be.So far, Bernanke has shown an understanding of the difference between who's in the quicksand, and those who feel like they are being pulled into the mire. He knows that those who feel pulled toward the mire are holding onto the rope of rescue for the rotter in the quicksand. Le...
Timing Market Turns - FOMC Cuts Discount Rate
2007-08-17 15:29:00
0900 EDTWe will enter 75 % long Swing positions in Dow, NDX, SPX and RUT. Stops for today's closing should be in the daily spread on Wednesday, preferably the highs on Wednesday. This trade may only last until closing as today's action depends on the return traders to some level of "belief in the markets". Initial opening stops for first 90 minutes is yesterday's 1512 EDT low.Cover long Treasury positions.WBB0825 EDTWe will update before the opening after we observe the reaction's aftermath.As we have thought, the 1998 pattern appears broken or significantly shortened.The FOMC's action is unusual since it is the Discount Rate that was cut and may have more bearish implications for stocks over coming weeks. It is bullish for today and likely into Monday.We will update by 0915 EDT.WBBTWO MESSAGES FROM THE FOMC THIS MORNING AT 0820 EDTFor immediate releaseFinancial market conditions have deteriorated, and tighter credit conditions and increased uncertainty have the potential to re...
More About: Market , Ming , Cuts
Timing Market Turns 08/15/2007
2007-08-16 04:03:00
Timing Market TurnsWe are still in cash since August 10th. You may wonder why we haven't entered short. First, it's expiration week in a perceived crisis for credit availability, with a week full of economic data.Second, since the August 6th morning low we have two and a half days upward with a spike closing on August 8th (no trend). Then one down day followed by a spike down opening on the 10th that ended higher followed by two days down. We expect an eventual retrace attempt but it is not a required action. In times like this, a patient swing trader and a cool headed investor takes an action that reflects their trading plan. We may miss a few quick trades but as we have stated for a few weeks 3-5 day swings had become shorter and more difficult to trade or cover risk for a long term portfolio.The SPX is quite close to its overflow point at 1363. This is our structural level for the onsetting of a long term bear market. Closing below that level for more than 1 day will bring...
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Timing Market Turns
2007-08-12 02:49:00
Market Summary -Updated on Saturday, August 11, 2007We did expect that Friday's action would be upward reversal and close positively. We believe the Federal Reserve actions actually held the markets in place.It seemed to us that each time the Fed added reserves by buying mortgage backed securities, the small rallies fizzled. So the indexes slogged into the closing and we are left with structure and technicals that are likely to produce a huge run upwards on Monday, August 13th, 2007.But our Time Loci are pointing to Tuesday as the end of this track. We then expect the normal shilly-shally into the derivative expiration on Friday.If not sooner, we expect that Friday will end the "normal" market conditions. We expect to be partially or potentially totally short in the index Swing positions and Investor Core positions by Friday's closing or Monday's closing.The 1998 track is still on course, but we do know nothing is perfect and the Fed's intervention may have altered the timing. A...
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Timing Market Turns
2007-08-12 02:49:00
This is the August 8, 2007 market comments submitted to TimerTrac.com 's twice a weekTiming Market Turn shttp://www.market-timing-wbbusin.com /We track our trades at TimerTrac.com for the Dow 30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and the Russell 2000 indexes. We trade them as if we were trading an unleveraged stock. We use a Swing trade (3-5 days) and an Investor Core (for hedging longer term investment positions).We believe that the decline from mid-July has completed the first downward leg of a Bull market correction. Between now and expiration Friday (August 17th), the indexes will likely track laterally as resistance at the 50% retracement (potentially 62%) levels.We have been writing about the near exact tracking of the indexes from the July high as relates to its matching decline in 1998. It is nearly to the day so far.The similarities between 1998 and 2007 crises have been getting alot of press. It might first scare some people if they saw the charts from 1998, but we believe most peopl...
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W.B. Busin Broadcast - Wednesday, March 7, 2007
2007-03-07 17:55:00
Today is Wednesday , March 7, 2007This information is for educational and informational purposes only. The information and data that we trade on is based in the various levels below. It is for our personal use and is shared with you for solely informational purposes.We will update each Monday morning before the open (Tuesday, if market is closed Monday), Wednesday afternoon before the closing, and Friday midday. We will also inject updates when we see sound trend changes that can be tradable.This is our preferred frequency and will be our basic service that will be available at the website. We will send a few messages between those as events and action may change our view._______1205 ET March 7, 2007The email service has been 'down' since 0300 ET when we tried to send a message to you. They are having trouble and I don't know when they will be online again.Look at your email from the afternoon message on March 5th. The bias for the time loci that we are expecting in the second...
More About: Broadcast , Broad
W.B. Busin Broadcast #4 - Tuesday, February 27, 2007
2007-02-27 15:36:00
Today is Tuesday , February 27, 2007_______1530 ETWe are 100% in cash as of today's closing.Here is an SPX chart with support levels:http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/ b295/wbbusin/SPX02272007retracement.jpgHe re is an NDX chart with support levels:http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/ b295/wbbusin/NDX02272007retracement.jpgCo ol heads prevail at times like this.WBB_______Daily Time Loci for Indexes for Tuesday, February 27, 2007 -February 28th -We remain cautious and bullish.God bless all of you,W. B. Busin
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W.B. Busin Broadcast #3 Tuesday, February 27, 2007
2007-02-27 15:36:00
1420 ETNow what about a bottom? Where is the bottom for this legdown of the correction?Sentiment indicates we are near a short term low, as in a small reversal upward followed by more downward. It won't seemlike much, but the Tuesday , May 30, 2006 down day crushedsentiment on a 1-day change. Price only dropped 20 pointsand reversed the next day. Four upward days later camethe beginning of the decline into the mid-June lows.Sentiment is currently at those same relative sentiment levels.Not to discount a massive intraday reversal, but we believe itwill be difficult to recover the following levels at today's closing.Closing at or above SPX 1437, Dow 12,565, NDX 1800 andRUT 818 may maintain an uptrend. We give this a5% chance of occurring in our most optimistic scenario.In view of the extreme oversold sentiment and technicals, we will exit on the closing today to lock in some profits. We expect at least a modest reversal upwards tomorrow.We will exit to cash in all Swing positions in ...
More About: Broadcast , February , Broad
W.B. Busin Broadcast - ALERT CHINA Tuesday, February 27, 2007
2007-02-27 15:36:00
0845 ETWe will enter 100% short in the Swing positions for the NDX, SPX and Dow for today's opening.The reason is explained below. This is a very high risk trade and we are looking at exiting at today's closing if any of the reversal scenarios or lateral tracks become the dominant movement today.We will update throughout the day if we have any comments of worth. With a large downward opening gap in the futures, considerable upward pressure will soon be needed to close the gap. How and when the gap is closed is the question. Our models show an attempt in the afternoon session that fails. The Wednesday track offers even less chance to close the gap unless the late afternoon session low is reversed. We are prepared to enter a long Swing position tomorrow if scenarios begin to materialize.We don't see a downward spiral/crash beginning here. Extended markets have days like this one, especially when there has been no significant correction for many months. If day trading the YM, ...
More About: China , Broadcast , Alert , Tuesday , February
Timing Market Turns - Wednesday 01/04/2007
2007-01-04 07:13:00
Today is Wednesday 01/04/2007 Happy New Year!We will soon publish our forecast for the early months of 2007 like we did last year.We expect a year of turmoil for the markets as we foresee a multi-month correction to the 2006 upward movement. That correction is not likely to begin before early spring 2007.The current correction that will unfold from this New Year's week will stretch for several weeks, but is not likely to carry too far away from the current SPX and Dow 30 levels, (e.g., SPX should hold above 1300 to 1320). We expect another upward pulsive movement to follow on. It should be a final one in this ongoing rally from the lows of October 2004.The correction that will follow the final upward move is expected to last for months, well into late 2008.We shall have quite a bit more on this in our newsletter and website as time passes.God bless all of you.W. B. Busin
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Timing Market Turns - Friday 08/04/2006
2006-08-04 21:28:00
Today is Friday , August 4, 2006 This information is for educational and informational purposes only. The information and data that we trade on is based in the various levels below. It is for our personal use and is shared with you for solely informational purposes. ______1550 EDTWe will use option #1.It may be a more enjoyable weekend with option #2 for others. It makes little difference at this point. Have a fine weekend.God bless all of you.W. B. Busin
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Timing Market Turns - Tuesday 08/01/2006
2006-08-01 21:59:00
Timing Market Turn s - 08/01/2006 This information is for educational and informational purposesonly. The information and data that we trade on is based in thevarious levels below. It is for our personal use and is sharedwith you for solely informational purposes.______1553 EDTWe remain in our current positions.WBB
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Timing Market Turns - Thursday 07/27/2006
2006-07-27 21:22:00
Timing Market Turn s - 07/27/2006 This information is for educational and informational purposesonly. The information and data that we trade on is based in thevarious levels below. It is for our personal use and is sharedwith you for solely informational purposes.______Thursday - at closing -1550 EDTWe are excercising option # 3WBB
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Timing Market Turns - Friday 07/14/2006
2006-07-14 21:27:00
Timing Market Turn s - 07/14/2006 This information is for educational and informational purposesonly. The information and data that we trade on is based in thevarious levels below. It is for our personal use and is sharedwith you for solely informational purposes.______FRIDAY 1525 EDTNO TRADE at the close.mail is slow and stacked in the queue.WBB
More About: Friday , Ming , Timing
Timing Market Turns - 07/13/2006
2006-07-13 21:30:00
Timing Market Turn s - 07/13/2006 This information is for educational and informational purposesonly. The information and data that we trade on is based in thevarious levels below. It is for our personal use and is sharedwith you for solely informational purposes.______1545 EDTTrade 3Patience!WBB
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Timing Market Turns - 06/29/2006
2006-06-29 21:32:00
Timing Market Turn s - 06/29/2006 This information is for educational and informational purposesonly. The information and data that we trade on is based in thevarious levels below. It is for our personal use and is sharedwith you for solely informational purposes.______No change to the position.WBB
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Timing Market Turns - 06/29/2006
2006-06-29 02:18:00
Timing Market Turn s - 06/29/2006 This information is for educational and informational purposesonly. The information and data that we trade on is based in thevarious levels below. It is for our personal use and is sharedwith you for solely informational purposes.______We have added some readers who have requested entry to our email list and twice daily newletter.Please check in your Bulk mail folders and then 'whitelist' the address in your mail reader.For those not on the list, we are expecting a substantial movement upwards.If you follow these guidelines, we may accept you.If you want to be on this courtesy email list for notification, then follow this format:1. Your First name, Middle initial, Last Name2. Your email address from your ISP (no hotmail, gmail, yahoo, etc.; these will be ignored).Good Trading and God bless you all,W. B. Busin
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Timing Market Turns - 06/12/2006
2006-06-12 21:59:00
Timing Market Turn s - 06/12/2006 This information is for educational and informational purposesonly. The information and data that we trade on is based in thevarious levels below. It is for our personal use and is sharedwith you for solely informational purposes.______We entered as stated in the 1530 EDT update today.WBB
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