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Uncertainty persists despite positive US data
2007-11-15 10:40:00 Uncertainty remained the key theme in financial markets as reassuring comments from the banking sector and some broadly positive US economic data failed to quell lingering credit worries on Wednesday. Bear Stearns, the US investment bank, said it expected to write down $1.2bn of mortgage-linked assets in the fourth quarter - less than many in the ... More About: Data , Positive , Financial Times , Cert
Market Linkages Amplifying Volatility
2007-11-15 10:29:00 Causality in financial markets is rarely as real as it is apparent. I claim no special powers for establishing causality. I also am typically skeptical of what is often reported as causality for asset or FX moves. But what is looking more apparent and more real since July’s financial market volatility spiked is markets are ... More About: Market , Ages
Fukuda Squashes Yen Rally, Lifts Stocks, Hits Bonds
2007-11-13 22:43:00 Old habits die hard. Prime Minister Fukuda proved this on Monday when he told the FT that the rise in the yen was too rapid and warned traders against one-way yen bets. Did this man forget that the only one-way yen bet is short yen, not long yen? Yen gains indeed were rapid against high ... More About: Stocks , Daily News , Rally , Bonds , Hits
USDCAD, no confirmation?yet?.
2007-11-13 22:42:00 Sharp reversal higher in usd/cad from last week’s low at .9060. Though a significant bottom may be in place, there is still no confirmation “pattern-wise” of such a bottom (5 wave rally on the shorter term chart). Note too that the market is short term overbought after the last week of sharp gains, and has ... More About: Confirmation , Irma
USDJPY, just a correction ?
2007-11-13 19:05:00 The “ideal” view in USDJPY for over the last month continues to unfold as the market did indeed weaken sharply back below the Aug low at 111.65. Currently, the market is consolidating from yesterday’s low at 109.10 but with the downside pattern not complete, no major bottom is seen as in place. Near term, there is ... More About: Rect
Next BU on Friday??
2007-11-13 16:12:00 After Japan’s Prime Minister stated that the yen appreciating “too fast” and speculators need to “be careful”, the US dollar has risen against the yen and yen carry has rebounded sharply. The US dollar index is down .16 at 75.74, but the greenback is up ag the yen at 110.20. WSJ carries a big article ... More About: Daily News , Friday
Bank of Japan Votes 8-1 to Hold Key Rate at 0.5%
2007-11-13 05:02:00 The Bank of Japan refrained from increasing interest rates, the lowest among industrial nations, amid signs that the world’s second-largest economy is slowing. Governor Toshihiko Fukui and his colleagues voted 8-1 to leave the key overnight lending rate at 0.5 percent, the central bank said in a statement today in Tokyo. Atsushi Mizuno was the sole ... More About: Bloomberg , Hold , Rate
Yen hits 18-month high against dollar
2007-11-12 15:57:00 The yen hit an 18-month high against the dollar on Monday as traders retreated from risky assets amid heightened nervousness over the state of the financial sector. Analysts said sliding equity markets had seen investors unwind carry trades, in which low-yielding currencies such as the yen are sold to fund the purchase of riskier, higher-yielding assets ... More About: Dollar , High , Hits , Financial Times , Doll
Yen Surges On Risk Aversion
2007-11-09 20:56:00 The yen rose sharply across the board on rising concerns over the credit market. The currency hit a 1 ˝ year high at 110.52 versus the dollar. The euro dropped from 166 to just above 162 against the yen, and the sterling slumped 7 big figures to as low as 231.20 versus the yen. Fed Chairman ... More About: Daily News , Risk , Urge
USDJPY, Finally..
2007-11-09 17:05:00 In $/yen, the “ideal” over the last few weeks of declines back to the Aug low at 111.65 continues to play out as the market today has finally tumbled below that low. Note too that the market appears to be within wave 3 in the fall from the Oct 15th high at 117.90 (see numbering ... More About: Finally
Market update
2007-11-08 18:01:00 After the ECB and the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged, the greenback is mixed, but highly volatile. US dollar index is up small .06 at 75.47, but subject to severe swings. Again, Libor fixings for Gbp, Eur, and Usd are stable. Jobless Claims: Our Jennifer Lee writes, ” U.S. initial claims took a bigger-than-expected ... More About: Market , Daily News , Update
Trichet Resurrects ?Brutal? In Describing Euro/Dollar Move
2007-11-08 16:38:00 In early 2005 ECB President Trichet called the move up in euro/dollar at the time brutal. This was a deliberate attempt to introduce two-way risk into the market to check the advance of the euro. No currency intervention followed up the escalated concern in 2005, so it is not a signal that unilateral if not ... More About: Euro , Dollar , Move , Brutal , Doll
GBPJPY, 10 month bearish pattern ?
2007-11-07 20:33:00 GBPJPY continues to chop near the near the middle of the 251.15/219.40 range that has been in place since July, and may be forming a large, bearish large head and shoulders pattern since last January. Though this raises potential for declines all the way back to the neckline of the pattern (currently at 222.00) and even ... More About: Pattern , Bearish , Month , Bear , Mont
Dollar Slide Begs Question?What Can Be Done To Check It?
2007-11-07 15:59:00 First of all it is not yet clear that the dollar decline is disorderly. While there is no objective set of conditions to meet the definition of disorderly, my personal test is a broad decline in the dollar (speed is fast and magnitude large) that drives US asset prices down more broadly. That means weaker ... More About: Question , Daily News , Dollar , Check , Slide
The US is cheap?..and getting cheaper!
2007-11-07 15:51:00 After China signals that they are going to diversify out of US dollar, the greenback is trashed and accelerates to the downside. Vice chairman of China ’s National People’s Congress Cheng Siwei told a conference in Beijing , “We will favor stronger currencies over weaker ones, and will readjust accordingly. At the same meeting, central ... More About: Daily News , Cheap
Dollar Capitulation Underway
2007-11-07 14:05:00 Almost one month to the day after Chinese officials addressed the “nuclear option” of destabilizing the already beleaguered US dollar by selling some of its reserves, a vice chairman of the Chinese People’s Political and Consultative Conference, parliament’s top advisory body, said China should diversify its $1.43 trln in currency reserves by buying more strong ... More About: Dollar , Doll
Oman moves to take pressure off rial
2007-11-07 13:52:00 Oman cut the yield on certificates of deposit at its first auction since a US interest rate cut and pushed funds on to the interbank market, deterring bets on the appreciation of the dollar-pegged currency. Oman, which sets monetary policy at a weekly auction of certificates of deposit, set the 28-day cut-off rate at 2.35% ... More About: Oman , Rial , Moves
Saudi inflation highest in a decade
2007-11-07 13:45:00 Annual inflation in Saudi Arabia accelerated in September to 4.8%, the highest level in at least a decade, due to strong rent and food prices, Central Department of Statistics data showed on Tuesday. September marked the fifth month running that the annual inflation rate had risen in the world’s largest oil exporter as rent prices ... More About: Inflation , Flat
China, India will push up oil, says IEA
2007-11-07 13:36:00 Soaring demand for oil in China and India will raise long-term prices and increase the danger of disruption to supply, the International Energy Agency has warned. In its annual World Energy Outlook, released on Wednesday morning, the rich countries’ energy watchdog also said there was an urgent need for increased investment to meet the need ... More About: Push-up , Financial Times , Push
India?s currency strains
2007-11-07 13:19:00 US interest rate cuts may help American shoppers but they queer the pitch for some of the world’s fastest growing countries. Both China and India resort to hefty foreign exchange intervention to temper currency appreciation, mopping up the ensuing liquidity with domestic borrowing, known as sterilisation. For China, the difference in the interest rate it receives ... More About: Currency , Financial Times , TRAI
Oil hits $97 on bombs, demand forecast
2007-11-07 02:18:00 Oil futures jumped to a new record above $97 a barrel Tuesday after bombings in Afghanistan and an attack on a Yemeni oil pipeline compounded the supply concerns that have driven crude prices higher in recent weeks. Those concerns were also fed by a government prediction on Tuesday that domestic oil inventories will fall further ... More About: Oil , Hits , Demand , Forecast , Bombs
EUR/USD, no signs of a top but?.
2007-11-07 02:07:00 No change in the view in eur/$ as the market has pushed to another new high within the final upleg in the rally from the Aug low at 1.3360 (wave 5, see numbering on daily chart below). Though this suggests at least a month of consolidating after its completion, there are still no signs that ... More About: Signs
100$ a barrel
2007-11-05 23:33:00 addthis_url = 'http%3A%2F%2Fwww.gccfx.com%2F%3Fp%3D732' ; addthis_title = '100%24+a+barrel'; addthis_pub = ''; More About: Cartoons , Barrel
Citi CDO Exposure Shows Larger Valuation Problem
2007-11-05 21:32:00 Rating agencies are not known for leading markets in setting values for securities they rate. The Asian currency crisis comes to mind when markets moved weeks in front of rating agencies in exiting these markets and well after the fact the downgrades came. Well Citi , and not alone here as Merrill before it, announced additional writedowns due ... More About: Daily News , Problem , Exposure , Large
USDJPY, just a matter of time?.
2007-11-05 19:56:00 No change in the view in $/yen as the 3 wave rally from the Aug 17th low at 111.65 (A-B-C, see daily chart below) continues to argue that the last 3 months of ranging is a correction, with eventual new lows below 111.65 after. Nearer term however, some scope remains for another week or 2 ... More About: Time , Matter
The Markets Today
2007-11-05 17:19:00 After China signals a delay to on-shore investment into Hong Kong , yen carry is sharply lower with the greenback mixed in overnight trading. The US dollar index is up .07 at 76.41, but only slightly away from the new lows at 76.22. With the announced write-downs by Citigroup, Libor fixings for Gbp, Eur, and ... More About: Daily News , Markets , Today
Supermodel Bundchen Joins Hedge Funds Dumping Dollars
2007-11-05 15:29:00 Gisele Bundchen wants to remain the world’s richest model and is insisting that she be paid in almost any currency but the U.S. dollar. Like billionaire investors Warren Buffett and Bill Gross, the Brazilian supermodel, who Forbes magazine says earns more than anyone in her industry, is at the top of a growing list of ... More About: Bloomberg , Dollars , Hedge , Funds , Supermodel
Currency pegs under pressure
2007-11-05 11:17:00 There are more than 100 countries with fixed currency regimes of one sort or another. Some economies, such as Panama are effectively dollarised, or in the case of Andorra, “euro-ised”. Many, including Hong Kong, operate strict pegs. In other countries, currencies move within trading bands that allow a little more flexibility. Dollar or euro pegs ... More About: Currency , Financial Times
FX Correlations (October): How Do Currencies Move In Relation To Each Other
2007-11-04 18:08:00 In order to be an effective trader, it is important to understand how different currency pairs move in relation to each other. There are a few reasons why this is significant, but most importantly, it allows traders to understand their exposure. That is, having a portfolio that consists of the AUDUSD and USDCAD is different ... More About: Move , Currencies , Relation , October Warning: preg_replace() [function.preg-replace]: Compilation failed: nothing to repeat at offset 0 in /home/blogtop/public_html/blogdetails.php on line 143
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