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Morning Coffee: What's Next for Housing?
2007-12-31 17:24:00 (Stocks in article: NYSE: SPY, NYSE: DIA, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: MER, NYSE: LCC, Nasdaq: DPTR, Nasdaq: BIDU, NYSE: M, NYSE: TOL)First a correction my dear friends. Within the "Greek's Week Ahead" we wrote that Bhutto's son would take over leadership of his mother's party. He, in fact, is taking over symbolic leadership, while his father, "Mr. 10%," takes over active leadership. Please refer to the article for further detail on this man with a checkered past.On this last trading day of 2007, existing home sales came in better than expected. Hold your horses though, we'll take you through the numbers and show you why the real message is that we have not hit bottom in real estate. That does not necessarily mean we have not bottomed in related stocks, and I've already gone on record looking for a January lift in some of these shares. November's new home sales sank 9%, so this rise in existing home sales to a 5.0 million annual pace from 4.97 million seems contradictory. Also, conside... More About: Coffee , Housing , Morning
The Greek's Week Ahead - Ominous al-Qaeda Precedent
2007-12-31 05:59:00 The Greek's Week Ahead has been engineered to prepare you for the events that could impact your portfolio this week.The week ahead brings with it the turn of the year, but what's in store... Will it just be more of the same? This is the easiest forecast to make, and the one you will see most commonly presented by the talking heads on your favorite financial channel. There will also be the extremists, who will predict extremes in either direction. But this is a topic for a pending article to discuss, "The Year Ahead - 2008," coming soon to Wall Street Greek.For now, let's just focus on next week. The trouble in Pakistan is the most important issue in the week ahead, despite the employment data due. Chaos has not ceased, but the rise of Bhutto's son to symbolic party leadership at least gives Musharraf's opposition something to focus on rather than destruction. Benazir's husband, Asif Ali Zardari, is taking over active leadership of the party, but he was once known as "Mr. 10%,"... More About: Al-Qaeda , Qaeda
The Week in Video Review - Dec 28
2007-12-29 20:45:00 While the holiday week of 2007 will forever be known as the week Pakistan lost a great hope and possibly its direction toward democracy, we did our best to mix in some positive and happy video coverage of the week that was.Opinions expressed within the videos do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Wall Street Greek. More About: Video , Review , Week
Morning Coffee: Housing Falls Further
2007-12-28 17:00:00 (Stocks in article: NYSE: SPY, NYSE: DIA, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: TOL, NYSE: HOV, NYSE: BZH, NYSE: DHI, Nasdaq: GOOG, NYSE: C, NYSE: HBC, NYSE: BRK.A, NYSE: BRK.B, NYSE: GCO, NYSE: MYL, NYSE: PFE, NYSE: SGR, NYSE: WMT)A day after the world shaking assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, oil is moving even higher. Supply draw yesterday and escalating protests on the street in Pakistan have crude approaching $98. I think this is it folks. I think we finally have the catalyst to get over $100 unfortunately, and for as long as unrest reigns in Pakistan, there should be solid oil price support. A few important data points are also impacting the market this morning.Economic Data AnalysisNovember New Home Sales fell off of a cliff, reported this morning down 9%. Mind you, there was not too far to fall, after having bounced off a few other ledges already this year on our way down. Sales were running at an annual pace of 647K in November, versus expectations for a 720K run r... More About: Coffee , Housing , Morning , Falls
Today's Coffee: Pakistan Shakes World
2007-12-27 18:30:00 (Stocks in this article: NYSE: SPY, NYSE: DIA, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: GS, NYSE: BA, NYSE: PCG, NYSE: EP, NYSE: SLM, NYSE: C, Berlin: AHX.BE, Nasdaq: YHOO)In a very important event that should not be overlooked or understated, Pakistan Peoples Party Leader Benazir Bhutto was killed in an attack this morning. As a result, U.S. equities have been shaken and oil and gold are moving higher.Petroleum StatusOil immediately moved higher on the news from Pakistan, but it did not move significantly higher. Perhaps the geopolitical factor had already been priced in after events in Turkey, and with the Petroleum Status report due from the EIA, traders were tentative to bid oil higher.Then, the Energy Information Administration reported inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels. Bam! Oil popped over $97 on that news, and as unrest likely escalates, oil could finally test that century mark. How the Pakistani situation plays out from here is critical. It's likely that this event will raise ... More About: World , Coffee
BREAKING NEWS: Benazir Bhutto Killed in Attack
2007-12-27 14:44:00 Pakistan Peoples Party Candidate Benazir Bhutto was killed in a suicide attack in Pakistan today, around 8:00 a.m. EST. Pakistani reaction to this tragic event will be watched carefully today by American traders. Oil is immediately higher, but just slightly. As insensitive as we are sorry this sounds, the market will likely be more concerned about Pakistani reaction, and how unrest may escalate, then it is concerned with the event itself. Gold is moving higher and equities have indicated a lower open, but the moves are not exaggerated. We will be closely monitoring protests and government reaction.In the past, assassinations have occurred just ahead of major al-Qaeda terrorist acts, including 911. This should set the markets at quite unease through the New Year as a result. Bhutto would have been a much easier target than Musharraf, and yet holds the potential of inciting similar unrest. We advise resisting the urge to panic now, but including a hedge against market downturn in your... More About: News , Breaking News , Breaking , Killed
Morning Coffee: Gift Buying Softness
2007-12-26 17:00:00 (Stocks in this article: NYSE: SPY, NYSE: DIA, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: TM, NYSE: GM, Nasdaq: COST, NYSE: TGT, Nasdaq: AMZN, NYSE: MA, NYSE: BRK.A)Welcome back folks. Hope your holiday passed pleasantly, and if it did not, we wish you God's blessing in the year to come.Happy Holiday Shopping?This morning, the big question to be answered is how did the holiday shopping go? Did consumers make a go of it or what? Well, the International Council of Shopping Centers posted weekly same-store sales data showing a 2.8% year-to-year increase for the period ended December 22nd. Clearly, the next few days that followed were significant as well. Also, according to ShopperTrak RCT Corp., 16% of holiday sales occur in the week after Christmas. Gift card sales are expected to have risen 42% this year, according to the National Retail Federation, and could prove an important mover of inventory over the weeks to come.Remember, the population and the economy naturally grows, especially as American longev... More About: Buying , Coffee , Morning
Season's Greetings!
2007-12-25 19:00:00 Wall Street Greek wishes our readers season's greetings. God bless you my friends.
Morning Coffee: Don't Panic, Potter is Buying!
2007-12-24 16:54:00 (Stocks in this article: NYSE: SPY, NYSE: DIA, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: MER, NYSE: C, NYSE: GS, NYSE: MS, NYSE: GE, NYSE: URI, NYSE: WYE, Nasdaq: TEVA, NYSE: CVX, NYSE: GS, Nasdaq: MAXJ)"Potter is buying!" exclaimed Jimmy Stewart in It's a Wonderful Life. Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) isn't selling either, Goldman is buying, buying up Cheyne Finance, the marquee troubled SIV portfolio. Leading a group of investors, clearly Goldman is once again on the right side of a deal, gobbling up bargains just like Potter. Wall Street Greek believes this is the most important news of the day, and offers further hope for the troubled credit markets and financial system. It also provides a louder buy signal, in our opinion, for investment banks on the cheap. It looks to me like the nonbinding agreement hinges on the investors' ability to negotiate reinvestment opportunities for the creditors of the company. Goldman is looking bright, as usual, as it does not even seem to own yet what it would turnover f... More About: Buying , Coffee , Morning , Panic
The Greek's Week Ahead - Time to Buy!
2007-12-23 23:17:00 The Greek's Week Ahead has been engineered to prepare you for the events that could impact your portfolio this week.The holiday week ahead offers up a shortened period that could prove volatile on light volume. A good portion of the market will be on vacation, sipping eggnog and singing carols, or more likely playing poker and arguing with distant relatives!The Greek has been vocal on our call to rally as we near the end of the year. I continue to expect a late Santa Claus rally to spread into a full-fledged January effect. A pending recession and bullish stock run can in fact go hand in hand my friends, because seasonal capital flows should find deeply valued beaten down shares now appealing.401K reshuffling could also play a role in where capital flows, as employees the nation over move capital in a reactionary manner out of losing sectors into winners. For this reason, I expect another early run for emerging market shares boosted by fund flows. In Q4, kitchen-sink write-offs san... More About: Time
Morning Report: Santa Sighting
2007-12-21 15:55:00 (Stocks in article: NYSE: SPY, NYSE: DIA, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: WAG, NYSE: MER, NYSE: CC, NYSE: MMC, NYSE: UBS, Nasdaq: RIMM, NYSE: PHP, Nasdaq: RESP, NYSE: MU, NYSE: C)Early warning radar has picked up a blip. Though there is a 50/50 chance it could be a Russian multiple warhead missile, bells ringing and children singing seem to indicate it may be Santa Claus. Well, better late than never! Odds are against it being a Russian nuke, with Putin visiting the boardroom of Gazprom to check out his new digs, maybe... An early economic report this morning is helping boost stocks. That said, consumer sentiment at 10:00 could shoot Santa right out of the sky.Today's Market Factor Analysis:Personal Income, Consumption and Inflation:November personal consumption expenditures rose a better than expected 1.1%, versus consensus 0.8%. After adjustment for inflation, consumption rose a strong 0.5%, versus 0.1% in October. While November's strength is impressive, indications are that holiday sales ... More About: Report , Morning
Greek Coffee: Old & New Economy Contrast
2007-12-20 20:05:00 In Greece, old souls like myself like to drink a Greek coffee in the afternoon, after siesta. It helps fuel the passion that drives them to squeeze the lemon of life for all the juice it has. (Stocks in article: NYSE: SPY, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: BSC, NYSE: MBI, NYSE: FDX, Nasdaq: GOOG, Nasdaq: QQQQ, Nasdaq: DCLK, Nasdaq: ORCL, NYSE: RAD, NYSE: CAG)The day offered an interesting mix of past and present contrast. While the Q3 GDP figure went unrevised, its strength looks sure to falter in coming quarters. Reports from the Philly Fed and Conference Board raise concern over the outlook for Q4. Moving forward, I continue to see consumer softness driving a second leg of weakness for the economy. However, despite this weakness I continue to see a bullish market opportunity on the January effect I expect to present itself this year.Today's Market Factor Analysis:Philly Fed SurveyThe Philadelphia area manufacturing report indicated quite poorly, and offers up a bad omen for future ISM reports. Th... More About: Economy , Coffee , Contrast , New Economy
Greek Coffee: U.S. Policy & Goldman's Reversion
2007-12-18 21:34:00 In Greece, old souls like myself like to drink a Greek coffee in the afternoon, after siesta. It helps fuel the passion that drives them to squeeze the lemon of life for all the juice it has. (Stocks in this article: NYSE: GS, NYSE: BBY, NYSE: SPY, NYSE: DIA, Nasdaq: QQQQ, Nasdaq: RIMM, Nasdaq: IRBT, NYSE: C, NYSE: BSC)HypocrisyAs we, occupier, protector, liberator of Iraq, sit back and watch a foreign nation invade that vulnerable country, I have never been more embarrassed or ashamed. Never have we looked so hypocritical and opportunistic. I, a man who supported the invasion of Iraq and now call for the pressuring of Iran, am ashamed. American ideals are not expressed by watching Turkey attack the populous of a country we are actively policing. I dare anyone to say we are not hypocrites in this instance.You may rebut that the PKK is a terrorist organization, and to this I would answer, suppose Iran was invading Iraq and killing Kurds? Iran also does not get along with the Kurds. I... More About: Coffee , Policy
Morning Coffee: Central Bank Big Day
2007-12-17 15:52:00 (Stocks in this article: NYSE: SPY, NYSE: DIA, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: TT, NYSE: IR, NYSE: GRP, NYSE: NOV, NYSE: LTR, NYSE: BRK.A, NYSE: BRK.B, NYSE: F, NYSE: TTM, NYSE: AOC)It's the big day. The first of the united central bank efforts debuts today. The Fed is auctioning $20 billion of term funds in this first round of action. The earth did not shake, and even the Libor didn't move much... However, The Greek believes the government gets the gravity of the situation and is otherwise rightly targeting the underlying collateral and remediating the problem at its root. However, the degree of assistance might need adjustment higher before it's all said and done. Is that bailout? Yes. Is it necessary to avoid financial cataclysm. Yes. So, would you rather have a free market collapse or a bit of socialist medicine for capital market revival? I know what I want for Christmas. Today's copy is abbreviated.Market-Moving NewsCNN Money: Asia SinksFinancial Times: Europe Lower As WellAP/Yahoo!: ... More About: Coffee , Morning , Bank , Central , Central Bank
Week in Video Review - Dec 15
2007-12-15 22:48:00 Please enjoy our video selections for the week just passed. We try to keep it as entertaining as possible, but some of the videos may raise an eyebrow. The views expressed in the videos are not representative of the views of The Greek, and it is not our intention to make any political or other kind of statement, or to otherwise offend anyone by any of the selections. We hope you find them interesting, and enjoy the comedy selections this week. If the video box does not appear via email, please visit the site to view the presentation. More About: Video , Review , Week
Morning Coffee: Markets Dazed & Confused
2007-12-14 17:25:00 (Stocks in this article: NYSE: SPY, NYSE: DIA, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: C, NYSE: BDK, Nasdaq: JBLU, Nasdaq: JASO, NYSE: WM, NYSE: WB, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: CFC) The market seems dazed and confused currently, trying to figure out if the credit market will implode, if the economy will collapse, if inflation will blaze. This makes us vulnerable to outside shock, a negative catalyst. However, I like it. It's also a sign. When fear gets this frantic, I shift to bullishness as the mentors advise us, as the geniuses of our game teach. Oh, there are serious dangers ahead, but the immediate period seems to offer opportunity.Importantly, capital flows should shift as we move through the end of the year. We should have a short-term bull to start '08, and after that, I agree the first half of the year will likely hold pitfalls and offer a rocky ride for stock investors. And, if Iran falls into place as I expect it could, my outlook for '08 is actually rather negative. Even so, I say that for now we sh... More About: Coffee , Markets , Morning
Morning Coffee: Follow Me
2007-12-13 15:06:00 (Stocks in this article: NYSE: SPY, NYSE: DIA, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: LEH, NYSE: GS, Nasdaq: COST, NYSE: HON, Nasdaq: MATK, Nasdaq: JOSB, NYSE: NVS, NYSE: C, NYSE: DOW)Last December, most would have said it was daring for me to suggest homebuilding and the financial system would fall into despair. In fact, many did, though that's all been forgotten now. Believe it or not, the consensus was looking for housing recovery early this year, while I was calling for another leg lower. Homebuilder CEOs were still in denial, and their stocks were significantly more expensive. I was even labeled an Armageddon Analyst. Can my views discounted any longer...Now that we are in what many are screaming is in fact Armageddon, I'm here to lead you through the fire. Wall Street Greek is actually looking for near-term equity rebound, and you will require the same courage many of you mustered up last year, but our position must now take the other side of the table.I suggest you refrain from you... More About: Coffee , Morning
Martek (Nasdaq: MATK) Earnings Preview
2007-12-12 20:13:00 (Stocks in this article: Nasdaq : MATK, NYSE: ABT)One of my favorite turn-around stories, Martek Biosciences (Nasdaq: MATK), a name I followed as an analyst, has gotten cheaper, and mostly on general market turmoil. With the company set to report earnings at the end of the day today, the report could offer an opportune catalyst for the stock this week. In any event, I like the shares over the long-term.At the conclusion of my article on October 13, 2007, “Riding the Martek Roller Coaster,” I wrote, “we view MATK attractive now for picking at, and would certainly look to add shares on any broad market weakness.” Broader market weakness has in fact played a role in Martek’s shares’ decline off its high. Keeping risk in mind, we have to ask, is there good reason for this decline that might be related to systematic risk, and what other reason might exist. I believe there is some risk, because if consumers are constrained and food prices are generally high, it may matter less ... More About: Preview , Earnings
Morning Coffee: Rally Time
2007-12-12 16:03:00 (Stocks in article: NYSE: SPY, NYSE: DIA, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: WB, NYSE: PNC, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: COF, NYSE: XOM, NYSE: SLM, NYSE: MMM, NYSE: GWW, Nasdaq: WMGI)Just when you think Ben has let you down, Uncle Ben shows up with creative mitigation. My plate today includes a side portion of crow, but recall that my concerns about the FOMC policy decision were geared to what I thought the Fed would do, not what it should do. Also, it will not intimidate my future forecasts, and this I promise. After the announcement, I was immediately concerned that the group had not narrowed the margin for the discount rate in order to increase its appeal, but today's action mitigates that concern. Funding should now be available even to shy banks that do not want to alert the market of their stresses. The Fed will not disclose bidder information. The coordination of the effort also helps sooth the market's concern that foreign central banks, especially in Europe, might do something detrimenta... More About: Coffee , Time , Rally , Morning
Breaking News: Important Fed Action
2007-12-12 15:04:00 Before this morning's article, it's important you are aware of this new Fed action reminiscent of its post 9/11 action. This triggers a buy signal in my opinion, but I will review it more closely in the "Morning Coffee."Fed Action of December 12 More About: News , Breaking News , Breaking , Breakin
Wishy Washy FOMC
2007-12-11 20:42:00 This group is lacking the strong leadership of years past. The context of its statements seem to go from one angle to another from month to month, and are contradicted too often. It seems to lack vision and is losing the confidence of the market. While I think Ben is intelligent, I'm having trouble with his leadership.The statement below reads to me, "we're clueless, but despite our intellectual paralysis, we will do what you ask us to eventually if you pressure us hard enough." That's good though, and rate aid is necessary, so after this bit of regurgitation, I would continue to look for rally later this month and in January on discounted, tax loss sale impacted shares. That said, I would have liked to have seen a larger move on the discount rate this time around.Here's the official FOMC announcement copied word-for-word below:Release Date: December 11, 2007 The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 4-1/4 p...
Morning Coffee: Herd Mentality
2007-12-11 16:05:00 (Stocks in article: NYSE: SPY, NYSE: DIA, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: WM, NYSE: TXN, NYSE: C, NYSE: MRK, NYSE: BA, NYSE: T, NYSE: HRB, NYSE: KR, Nasdaq: SBUX)lShoulda, woulda, coulda is what market participants could be saying this afternoon, as they consider their oversight of The Greek's warnings. One thing that you can count on here is that I will not follow the herd based on fear of making a mistake. I will stand by my convictions, and sometimes I'll be wrong, but I think I've steered you correctly for the most part so far. All the buzz this morning is again surrounding the Fed, and in a clear signal to me of the indecision that encompasses the current meeting, the FOMC has convened early today. If everything were a given, there would not even be a need to meet, but if you call the boys in early, something is probably cooking. I expect another "close call," using the Fed's own words from the last meeting notes.It is amazing to me how information and opinion feed on themselves and bu... More About: Coffee , Morning
Morning Coffee: Count Me in for $10 Billion!
2007-12-10 16:00:00 (Stocks in article: NYSE: UBS, NYSE: MCD, NYSE: SPY, NYSE: DIA, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: C, NYSE: MER, NYSE: MTN, Nasdaq: AAPL, Nasdaq: HAYZ, Nasdaq: MOGN, XETRA: EII.DE, Paris: GLEG5.PA, NYSE: SHI, NYSE: MHP, NYSE: MCO)Equities are tentative but positive as they continue to anticipate Fed expansinary action. Today's most important market-moving events are discussed below, and include UBS, the Fed, Jesse Jackson's misdirected march, and China's real interests exposed.UBS Says, Count Me in for $10 Bln. - Not to be outdone by its banking brethren, UBS (NYSE: UBS) today announced it would use several channels to raise capital and secure its Tier 1 capital status. The market viewed it positive that UBS was able to mitigate risks, despite diluting current shareholder interests through deals with two foreign investors and the promise of selling treasury shares it had planned to cancel. The total capital being raised will exceed the headline figure of $10 billion quite substantially, and UBS... More About: Coffee , Morning , Billion
The Greek's Week Ahead - Alone on an Island, "The Fed Will NOT Cut!"
2007-12-10 09:00:00 The Greek's Week Ahead has been engineered to prepare you for the events that could impact your portfolio this week.Wall Street Greek is alone on an island. That would not be such a bad thing though, if it was one of my treasured summer paradises of the Aegean. I am of course speaking in the figurative sense, regarding my expectation for the Federal Open Market Committee meeting decision, which is due on December 11th. Pundit after pundit, economist and sector strategist alike, are all discussing a Fed cut as if it were a foregone conclusion, despite the Fed's own words to the contrary. Ah, but you will point to Donald Kohn's recent address that seems to draw most, like a Siren's song, to the view that a cut is certain. It was of course his speech that set the market off running and speculating. I am very disappointed in the majority of experts who have set their expectations based on the speeches of Kohn and Bernanke. I warn those reckless sailors, beware the rocky shores she d... More About: Island
Morning Report: The Set Up
2007-12-07 15:00:00 (Stocks in this article: NYSE: SPY, NYSE: DIA, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: MT, Nasdaq: NEWS, Nasdaq: MVSN, Nasdaq: GMST, NYSE: NSM, Nasdaq: PALM, Nasdaq: PZZA, Nasdaq: MPEL, Nasdaq: COMV, NYSE: STP, Nasdaq: SPWR)We got a mild, bullish jobs report this morning, and while it offers perfect news to top off the bullish week, it's also the perfect set up for a Fed induced disappointment next week. Only The Greek is forecasting inaction to result from the December 11 FOMC Announcement. The Street and media are all in league looking for a 25 point move, to as much as a 50 point cut seen by the headless chickens. Bernanke was well aware of Paulson's plan before you were notified my friends, and this is why he has been walking tall, and even shed the usual tremor in his voice recently. The Fed is NOT going to act next week. It's moved 75 basis points already, is waiting to see the impact, is concerned about inflation and could add a discount rate cut to Paulson's move in order to cure the illnes... More About: Report , Morning |
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