The Lauriston Letter

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Condi mama, I thiNk I MAY NEED A break
2007-03-16 15:48:00
Quadruple witching, time to chill-out. For me trading is also about deciding when I should be chillaxing, especially if there is a war nothing interesting going on. The UN meetings are boring markets are too quiet. Time to simmer down. Bulls know how to do it! Sí, es posible.Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Break , Mama , Think , Need , Condi

Forget trading! 11 Steps to mega buck$
2007-03-16 13:46:00
This one is a must read if you really wanna make gazillions of lollies! Just 11 steps and you can choose whichever one(s) suits you. Numero seis suits me, Sir. Suits me! (MarketWatch)Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Trading , Mega , Step , Buck , Forge

Quadruple Witching Friday
2007-03-16 04:50:00
Equity and index options and futures expire. My bias is bearish. If inflation data somehow makes the markets rally (unlikely), I will stand aside and wait for next week.Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Friday , Frida , Quad , Witch

El tiene el cojones
2007-03-15 21:27:00
El Maestro now says he expects subprime-mortgage defaults to spread to other parts of the economy (Bloomberg.com)Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Jones , Cojones , Cojo

When the seagulls... follow the trawler
2007-03-15 15:57:00
it's because they think ... sardines will be thrown into the sea. If the markets are volatile and confusing, is there any point in trading? Follow your rules, enjoy your freedom, for the only freedom you have is the freedom to discipline yourself, no matter what the politicians tell you. Take a break and enjoy the coming Spring air! Does a bird in a cage sing as sweetly as one who is free?Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: When , Seagulls , Seagull , Agul

Are we in for another roller coaster ride?
2007-03-15 14:08:00
Dow futures are down about 30pts on Feb PPI (prices paid to U.S. producers) rising the most in three months. Asian markets were up about 1%, while Europe is trading about 1.5% up. Interesting article at xtrends that notes yesterday was a distribution not a reversal day as there was much more volume on the drop than on the subsequent rally. (continued in comments)Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Other , Ride , Roll , Another , Roller Coaster

A hair on the head...
2007-03-14 20:00:00
... is worth two on the brush - Irish proverb, I call it "Pecunia non olet" and Wall Street says "Never let a profit turn into a loss", but they never tell you how to do that! Don't eat yellow snow. When everyone is leanin' on it and rockin' wit it, might be better to jump ship!"War is peace. Freedom is slavery.Ignorance is strength." -George Orwell, "1984""How can a president not be an actor?" - Ronald Reagan"The mass of people is stupid" - Mao Tse Tung"If you want to live like a Republican,vote for the Democrats" - Bill Clinton"Mission Accomplished" - George W. BushJust some random thoughts as I sit back, survey this market and plan what to do next.Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Hair , Head

Bottom fishing according to Rick Santelli
2007-03-14 17:25:00
I am quoting: The first time we hit 12,000 last week, bottom fishers saved the day. This time around be careful, if they don't come again we may be in for a rough time. Also, "Risk knows no boundaries". If you are unsure, sit back and chill-out. Remember "Happiness is a cigar called Hamlet". (continued in comments)Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Fishing , Fish , Rick , Sant , Shin

Will the selling continue today?
2007-03-14 13:55:00
Japan and China closed 3% and 2% down respectively, while Europe is down about 2%. US futures are down moderately. Already I am hearing CNBC talking heads say this selling is "overblown". Since I do not have an "overblown/underblown" indicator, I will not take sides on that issue. (continued in comments)Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Selling , Today , Will , Sell , Conti

All I wanna do is have some fun...
2007-03-14 02:13:00
That was hotter than I asked for yesterday evening! My volatility index and put/call ratio signal is still early by about 2-3 days. I started entering swing puts last Friday. I have noted this delay before, so I am taking time to see how I can fix this, apart from the obvious "wait for 2-3 days!". As Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov says, "Don't run to a place when you can walk". (continued in comments)Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Fun , Anna , Have , Some

Rapidamente! Una catastrofe avvicina!
2007-03-13 18:03:00
My Maltese is rusty, but let me attempt to translate the above "Fire! Abandon ship! Women and children first, bulls are ph...!" This is the second wave of selling we were waiting for since last Friday. Thanks everyone for your contributions to today's massive wongas! BTW, if you want real trading education, you may not get it on my blog as I maintain a diary, but you will certainly get fantastic and actionable education at Afraid to Trade.com Blog!Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Cat , Men , Cata , Catastro , Rapid

Bullz don't like this...
2007-03-13 18:03:00
"I don't think they like thatHell naw not at allTake it like u wannaGet bust like a cannonball"- Dem Franchize BoyzIn trading, it's better to be a sheep and follow the markets. Don't be a bull or bear, just "Lean wit it, rock wit it!". I'm a sheep, I'm Ridin' Rims, hopefully one day they will be the Vanquish V12 or Vantage V8 rims! LOL. (Disclosure: short RIMM, ROTFLM**O)Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: This , Bull , Like

Markets have a yen to drop today
2007-03-13 14:47:00
Dow futures are down about 70 points, blowout earnings from GS notwithstanding. TXN had disappointing outlook while Citigroup is down after it raised offer for Nikko Cordial Corp. by 26 percent to $13.35 billion. The yen has strengthened significantly on US mortgage market concerns and disappointing US retail sales data. Once again carry traders are retreating! Yesterday I thought the drop would start in China, but it seems Japan is to blame. Oh well, yen is Chinese Cantonese word for hope or wish. Let's yen for a good smash today so we can close those puts!Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Market , Markets , Yen , Today , Have

Elvis has left the building
2007-03-12 23:01:00
All we need now is for overseas markets to start selling off, and we follow tomorrow. The bounce, dead or alive-cat, is over..., er... I think. TXN is down 1.3% in after-hours trading following first quarter update. Subprimes and housing stocks are in the lavabo. Bring back "repricing of risk"! And since we get everything from China these days, please ship us some selling tomorrow, and make mine red hot!Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Building , Elvis , Left , Build

Subprime woes center-stage again
2007-03-12 15:00:00
New Cent ury Financial Corp. (NEW) is trading 50% down after all creditors cut funding. This morning talk is NEW may not be around Friday! Stock futures were higher but have turned down moderately. I still expect a significant drop in the markets in the short-term. What worries me is the very high put/call ratios, and the fact that weekend reading revealed just about everyone is expecting that drop. (continues in comments...)Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Again , Center , Enter , Stage

Long only is the new black, not!
2007-03-11 21:34:00
Or how the media can be a good contrarian indicator à la Times or Newsweek cover indicator. To me this Janury 22nd article from FT.com crystallizes the frustration short-sellers were experiencing in the liquidity driven complacency of the July 2006 - Feb 2007 bull run. (continued in comments...)Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: The N , Black , Only , Long , Lack

We're sooo over you now!
2007-03-10 18:46:00
There was much discussion about El Maestro's use of the "R" word last week and the turmoil it may have exacerbated in the world markets. Like me, you might be wondering how Al-G is suddenly able to forecast the future, a feat that escaped him during 19yrs in office. Now I find out El Maestro has a book coming out in September aptly named Age of Turbulence, with a $8.5m advance. So this looks suspiciously like attention-grabbing antics the likes of which we are used to courtesy of Paris Hilton and Lindsay Lohan. To peddle his book, Pervez Musharraf groveled shamelessly on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. El maestro de la ofuscación has also recently discovered clarity, ergo "30% chance of recession".Let's hope Sir Alan Greenspan doesn't "do a Britney" to garner more attention, I wouldn't want to see Greenie getting out of a limo without his pants on!Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Over

LOL, wir gappen und crappen wieder
2007-03-09 22:16:00
Second day we gapped up big and then proceeded to sell-off for the day. I still haven't seen the kind of drop I was expecting from this bounce. These last 2 days seem to have been about frustrating bears, or maybe too many bears have been covering short positions from last week. Or maybe some bulls thought we're back to "buy the dips!" LOL. Next week should be interesting with quadruple witching Friday, and maybe more yen stuff! Let's hope Ireland give Scotland similar thrashing they gave England!Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Crap

Next: Rinsing bulls
2007-03-09 01:25:00
(I am filing this on 3/13/2007). I had made these notes on the sidebar on March 8th after the markets closed)Today March 8th short positions got an early rinsing, but the day closed poorly. The recent 3 day rally looks like a "dead cat" bounce, apologies to PeTA. I think bulls are in for an unfavorable day tomorrow Mar 9th. It'll be ethical though. [Update: next week bulls are in trouble, well, I hope!]Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Next , Bulls , Bull , Sing

Don't Worry, be Happy
2007-03-01 18:41:00
The New York Times article, "Bernanke Not Worried About Market Drop." [Update: Poole says no recession in Fed forecast.]Quote from Bernanke: “We are looking for moderate growth in the U.S. economy going forward, there’s a reasonable possibility that we’ll see some strengthening of the economy toward the middle of the year."Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Happy , Worry