The Lauriston Letter

RSS Feed Homepage

Articles: 1, 2

Lookie here: Bottomless pit
2008-05-21 23:49:00
Wow, "The American market is a bottomless pit right now..." Bears are going to have a great deal of fun in the coming months... read all about it here: "U.S. Stocks Extend Drop on Fed Minutes; Financials Lead Retreat" - Bloomberg.comLive trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter

Let's play "Ignore the bad news" game
2008-05-14 19:29:00
Here's some bad news to ignore:Food prices jump - APHome Foreclosures: Crisis only getting deeper - CNBCFed won't solve housing crisis - ReutersGas above $3.75 a gallon - APWhole Food shares battered after weak earnings - APForeclosure filings jump 65% -APVatican says aliens exist - BBC News Enjoy the rally while it lasts...Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Play , Bad News , Game

Too many predicting $200 crude oil
2008-05-07 23:57:00
Watching this video reminds me of the last time such gurus were calling for $100 crude oil. This was last year when crude was going over $60. Indeed, we have clearly passed $100, but we didn't get here in a straight line. Also, these gurus rarely give timelines, so we know in principle it's gonna happen. Anyway, I suspect too many have piled into crude oil and it's time for a nice break before the next rally... Bloomberg VideoLive trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Crude Oil

With the Fed out of the way now...
2008-04-30 20:46:00
can we please get some action? Volatility indexes are suggesting a drop, ditto put/call ratios. Price has been unable to make much progress lately, so when are these indicators going to be obliged?Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter

As good as it gets? Almost...
2008-04-23 21:07:00
I would agree with Gary here- we are close to, or at the top. Time for a drop. Gary has mentioned the WSJ data showing selling into SPY strength plus high RSI levels. I would add that put/call ratios are in sell territory, ditto volatility indexes, though these two indicators could do better. Maybe one or two more days and ping! the oven will be hot enough...Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Good

Anonymous
2008-04-16 19:39:00
I thought Anonymous was gone, he/she promised "this will be my last post here...". Alas, Anonymous cannot resist visiting this blog even when there are no updates! Anyway, markets are on a rally today, since we are in a bear market I'll wait for the next SAR opportunity rather than jump on board the long train...Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter

My prediction
2008-04-07 22:01:00
Is: "It's gonna be one hell of a week!". Earnings season is here- Alcoa kicks off today and GE will cap off the week on Friday. In between will be a slew of companies reporting, from retail all the way to the bad boy banks. Brace yourselves- with the recent rally and volatility indexes where they are, plus low-ish put-call ratios, I doubt there is much upside left. In fact, I think some downside needs to play out even if earnings season is as expected. Remember expectations (low bar) is always more important than reality...Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter

Is oil forming a double top?
2008-03-27 22:36:00
OK Anonymous, for crying out loud, here's a post to keep you happy for a few days: is crude oil forming a double top? Just check out charts e.g. USO. If so this could be a great time to look for shorts in oil and oil companies, or ETFs XLE and OIH. But keep those stops tight...Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Double

Bear to the rescue
2008-03-24 20:35:00
Not the usual bear squeeze. This time it is Bear Stearns that comes along to rescue the markets: "JPMorgan Raises Bear Stearns Bid to Woo Shareholders" - Bloomberg.com. Not sure if this changes much as far as the market trend (bearish) is concerned, but we may soon get an excellent shorting opportunity when the next unfavorable news comes along. For now, let the bulls party on...Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Rescue

More cheese
2008-03-18 20:46:00
The Fed throws the bulls more cheese in the form of 0.75% rate cut. Nice one - but does this bring us back to 2003-2007 style rallies (persistent), or is it time to wait for the next Sell All Rallies opportunity? Volatility indexes collapsed spectacularly today, some more than 20% down. Put call ratios also came way down. I'll take a vacation until the bulls are done... "The Federal Reserve cut its main lending rate by three quarters of a percentage point to 2.25 percent as officials try to prop up the faltering economy and restore faith in the U.S. financial system." - Bloomberg.comLive trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Cheese

Bears maul Bear Stearns
2008-03-14 21:28:00
Knowing the trend in the market is key to making successful trades. During the bull years of 2003 - 2007, long trades succeeded a lot more times than the few bear drops. This time around the bears are having a field day almost everyday. So until further notice from the market, it's SAR time!!: "Bear Stearns Cos. shares plummeted a record 53 percent after the New York Federal Reserve and JPMorgan Chase & Co. stepped in to rescue the 85-year-old U.S. securities firm with emergency funding." - Bloomberg.comLive trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Bears

Conflicting news reports
2008-03-13 20:38:00
S&P sees the end in sight, while Carlyle Capital sees assets being seized. Also there is a rumor going round questioning the solvency of Bear Stearns!! One more huge drop and a good buying point will avail itself, meanwhile before that happens watch out for SAR opportunities (sell all rallies):S&P: End Near for Subprime Writedowns; - BloombergHedge fund on verge of collapse - BBCNews Bear Stearns Plummets on Insolvency Fear - APLive trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter

Fed to the rescue...
2008-03-11 20:28:00
Rally is here, it's been a "long" wait since last week. As mentioned before, we are in a bear market, so SAR reigns. Better to exit those longs and start looking for shorting opportunities in the next few days, but remember March 18 is Fed rate decision day. Shortly after that could offer another shorting opportunity: "U.S. stocks rallied the most in five years after the Federal Reserve said it will pump $200 billion into the financial system to shore up banks battered by mortgage- related losses." - Bloomberg.comLive trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Rescue

VIX, put/call ratios and price lining up
2008-03-03 22:10:00
Looks like a good place today to exit shorts, and for the more daring to enter long positions for the short-term. Since we are in a downtrend or bear market, shorts will work better than long so maybe the more discerning will wait for the next SAR opportunity!!Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Price , Call

Bernanke trapping himself?
2008-02-27 23:52:00
There is a Spanish proverb that goes: "I don't want the cheese, I just want to get out of the trap". It feels like Bernanke may be singing that song somewhere down the line. In the meantime: "Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled the U.S. central bank is prepared to lower interest rates again even as inflation accelerates." - Bloomberg.comLive trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter

Stocks rise on Ambac, MBIA ratings
2008-02-25 22:01:00
I cannot see anything to get excited about on the long or short side. Nothing special on volatility indexes or PCR that I can see, and stock charts also not that appealing. It's going to be an exciting week anyway with some significant economic news coming... in the meantime, "U.S. stocks staged their biggest rally this month after Standard & Poor's kept AAA debt ratings for the nation's largest bond insurers, easing concern credit losses will extend the worst earnings slump since 2001." - Bloomberg.comLive trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Stocks , Ratings , Rise , Ambac

Looks like stalemate
2008-02-19 20:22:00
Gap up this morning has been faded away - I cannot make any sense of any of the usual indicators expect PCR is dropping fast which would imply a sell-off could just around the corner. Except for energy stocks that are doing extremely well. Anything else out there?Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Stalemate

So is that it for the latest rally?
2008-02-14 20:50:00
I still maintain short-term bearish bias. Tomorrow is Options Expiration day, so could be dull. I would be looking at March options anyway if one prefers options to stocks. Techs are giving up almost 2%, small caps 3% and energy about unchanged. Thanks Bernanke for putting some brakes on the markets, a little rest is well called for as we head into mid-Feb... "U.S. stocks fell for the first time this week after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke warned that additional bank losses are likely and analysts said Intel Corp. may be hurt by slower computer sales." - Bloomberg.comLive trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Rally

Techs not participating in rally
2008-02-12 20:38:00
Techs are sluggish today, with AAPL down almost 3%. Looks like going into options expiration the Qs will swing down one more time. Energy stocks are also losing "steam". I'd rather be short than long here... "U.S. stocks rose for a second day, led by financial shares, on expectations Warren Buffett, the world's No. 1 investor, will help calm credit markets by offering to shore up bond insurers' finances." - Bloomberg.comLive trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Rally

Bad news everywhere you look
2008-02-06 21:51:00
The markets didn't have a chance today. Looking at most website (Yahoo! Finance, Bloomberg etc.) all I see is bad news like Macy's cutting 2,300 jobs, the Fed worried about inflation and may not cut rates next time etc. Recession is definitely here, hence be ready for more SAR (sell all rallies) opportunities than BAD (buy all dips)! Oil stocks too are not immune.Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: News , Bad News

We are in consolidation
2008-02-04 21:31:00
We'll probably be range bound for a little while, but does anyone seriously think we could rally soon? Any catalysts? I cannot think of anything in February that could rally this market (without a drop first to suck in some bears/fuel).Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter

Bears scorched by MBIA news
2008-01-31 20:33:00
Elevated volatility indexes on average favor the bulls, so putting on shorts at such levels is a low probability trade. If you are a bear, better to wait for VIX etc. to drop below the 10 day MA, especially for swing-trade bears. The spin du jour is: "U.S. stocks rose, sparing the Standard & Poor's 500 Index from its worst January ever, after the nation's largest bond insurer said it expects to keep its AAA credit rating." - Bloomberg.comLive trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: News , Bears , Scorched

Recession fighting Fed cuts by 50 bp
2008-01-30 20:23:00
With volatility levels so high, this SAR opportunity does not make much sense, I'll wait for this upthrust to end before taking any action. But for the moment the markets like the cut, and since it is the end of the month, why not pump in some window-dressing and get a few bears to run for the exit doors? January is on average one of the most positive months, but not this time! How far will this rally go? From Bloomberg.com: "The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to 3 percent, the second cut in as many weeks, to prevent the U.S. economy from sinking into a recession."Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Fighting , Recession , Cuts

Stocks rise, but how much upside is there?
2008-01-28 20:44:00
There is some hope of more rate cuts on Wednesday (see Bloomberg story), but since we are in confirmed downtrend, how far will this latest rally go? Energy and financials are doing quite well today. I am getting a cloudy mixed picture from VIX and PCRatios, maybe best to wait for reaction to Fed before acting...Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Stocks , Rise , Upside

A computer genius
2008-01-24 20:44:00
While waiting for the next SAR opportunity (as this bounce looks weak), here's some good reading about the rogue trader at Société Générale that accumulated losses of more than $7.2bn:Bloomberg: "a computer genius"FT.com: ShockGenBank Systems and Technology: Blame people or technology?Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Computer , Genius

Markets just want to go higher...
2007-03-19 14:04:00
Apart from the merger news (Barclays/ABN Amro) mentioned over the weekend, not much else going on. Qualcomm, Walmart and Citigroup are trading up in Europe. Japan closed 1.6% higher while surprise, surprise! China closed almost 3% higher. I was expecting China to drop after the rate increase, but it seems the speculating masses just cannot hold back. If the market wants to "run to stand still", who I am not to oblige it with patience and discipline?Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Market , Markets , Just , High , Want

And you cannot blame it on hanging chads...
2007-03-19 04:01:00
The Brits should be so lucky that Ann Coulter is not a royal subject! After Lordi's excellent monster hard rock last year, I am left scratching my head that this one made it to Helsinki. Camp but cheerful? Britain is obviously heading for her Waterloo in May. Don't you miss ABBA? Anyway, good luck Scooch... Ralph Fiennes would never have gotten into any problems with this crew on duty.Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Chad , Cann , Blame , Lame , Anno

Weekend business
2007-03-18 16:04:00
[Update: PIMCO says subprime woes may spread (Bloomberg.com)]Merger Monday: Barclays makes bid for ABN Amro (BBC News)China raises rates to cool inflation and reduce asset bubbles (Bloomberg.com) - waiting to see what effect this may have on Asian trading this evening. As someone pointed out, this may already have been priced in, and the gambling-loving Chinese population may not yet be done with the "Bling Dynasty" bull bubble.Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Business , Weekend , Week , Ness , Sine

Weekend política: even Ronnie is crying
2007-03-17 19:26:00
As someone who loved Ronald Reagan and his era, I find it a little sad that we are losing that kind of magic in the world. I personally don't like to blame one person for these situations we live in, we vote democratically, we are all to blame whether you belong to the left, right or center! Anyway (via Bill Cara), some interesting stuff from CNN, Donald "El Trompetista" Trump has some opinion on (continued in comments):Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Weekend , Week , Crying

Private equity firm Blackstone to go public?
2007-03-16 18:29:00
I am still enjoying a break, but this morning's news about Black stone planning to go public (Reuters) has me scratching my head. Why would such a company that enjoys "privacy" and closed books want to open themselves to public scrutiny if they were so succesful? Especially if the CEO said this on Feb 27, 2007: "I think the public markets are overrated, ... really not worth it." Doesn't smell kosher... is it number 6 or 8 on how to make mega moolas?Live trades and analysis from The Lauriston Letter
More About: Public , Private Equity , Stone