The Peridot CapitalistThe Peridot CapitalistAn investing blog written by Chad Brand of Peridot Capital Management Articles
Straight Talk from Buffett
2008-02-08 18:02:00 One of the great things about listening to Warren Buffett speak, and I suspect one reason why thousands gather each year in Omaha for his company's annual meeting, is that despite the fact that he is a brilliant man he speaks in plain, logical language that is easy to follow and usually hard to argue with. If you want the truth, without the media spin, and in as few simple words as possible, just ask Buffett.Here are excerpts from a Buffett blurb on latimes.com from Thursday discussing current financial market conditions:"It's sort of a little poetic justice, in that the people that brewed this toxic Kool-Aid found themselves drinking a lot of it in the end," he said."I wouldn't quite call it a credit crunch," he said. "Money is available, and it's really quite cheap because of the lowering of rates that has taken place."He added: "What has happened is a repricing of risk and an unavailability of what I might call 'dumb money,' of which there was plenty around a year ago."He i... More About: Talk , Straight
Apple's Valuation Looks Attractive Again
2008-02-07 17:31:00 The recent drop in shares of Apple (AAPL) has probably been more pronounced than most expected. It's true the stock was very expensive at its all-high of more than $200 per share (40 times forward earnings) but the catalyst for the sharp $80 per share drop we have seen recently was the company's extremely conservative guidance for the current quarter. Apple always sandbags quarterly guidance, so this did not come as a surprise, but evidently investors were hoping they would have been a little less cautious. However, in this day and age, when quarterly guidance is given simply to help out Wall Street analysts, under-promising is the only way to go. This is true even more right now as the economic climate is highly uncertain.Despite all the reasons to be worried, the fundamental story behind Apple is still strong. The company is gaining market share in desktops, notebooks, and cell phones, and is holding their lead in music players. The company will not be immune to a consumer led s... More About: Attractive , Valuation
The Power of the Capital One Stock Buyback
2008-02-05 20:32:00 Some investors love them, others hate them, but regardless of which camp you find yourself in, the reality is that share buybacks have an ability to boost shareholder value significantly. The news out of Capital One Financial (COF) last week hardly got any attention, but I wanted to point it out in the face of all the negativity surrounding the banking sector.Despite the gloom and doom forecasts that the U.S. consumer is dead and everybody is facing home foreclosure and default on their credit card and student loan debt (exaggeration intended), Capital One announced a $2 billion share buyback and a dividend increase of 1,289% (to $1.50 per share annually). One has to think the COF board thought long and hard before increasing the company's annual dividend from 0.2% to 3%. If there was any reasonable chance of a capital shortfall in the future, they would have surely treaded more slowly. The only thing worse than cutting your dividend is doing so only months after initiating one (th... More About: Power , Stock , Buyback
Vytorin Worries Look Overdone in Shares of Merck, Schering
2008-02-04 19:36:00 The drug sector has been a tough place to invest in recent years as the FDA has become more and more strict, not only in approving new drugs but also with respect to labeling requirements for existing ones.Last year, new warning labels essentially crippled the anemia drug franchise at Amgen (AMGN), and a recently released study for Vytorin, a cholesterol drug from Merck (MRK) and Schering Plough (SGP), has investors worried. The market has slammed the two stocks, after study results showed that Vytorin (a combination drug composed of Zocor and Zetia) was no more effective than Merck’s Zocor in reducing the risk of heart disease. This is important because Zocor is available in generic form, while Vytorin is a new, more expensive medication.Zetia and Vytorin, both products of a cholesterol joint venture between Merck and Schering, netted the two companies about $5 billion of revenue in 2007, but that business is coming to question. If Vytorin is not as helpful as the companies have ... More About: Shares
More on Yahoo/Microsoft
2008-02-03 14:47:00 Since several Peridot clients own shares of Yahoo ! (YHOO) I figured a discussion of my game plan would be in order. It's interesting that YHOO shares are trading at $28 and change, nearly 10% below the initial Microsoft (MSFT) bid. Most of the other money managers I've seen quoted agree with me that Yahoo! really has no other choice but to sell itself at this point. Their lack of progress as an independent company (and as a result, sub-$20 share price) makes any offer in the 30's from a large player nearly impossible to get away from. CNBC's Squawk Box anchors called the bid "Murdochian," which I thought was a perfect characterization. Dow Jones could not turn down $60 per share when the stock was in the 30's on its own. The MSFT premium isn't as large, but it's close. It is no secret that Jerry Yang and Co. really prefer not to combine with Microsoft (or else they would have done so a long time ago), so this hostile offer gives them an opportunity to try and find other poten...
Microsoft Aims for Yahoo! Again
2008-02-01 18:53:00 A couple of thoughts on a Friday:1) Yahoo ! Must Merge with Microsoft A year ago Yahoo! rebuffed Mister Softee's attempt at a buyout, thinking they could get their share price (then in the high 20's) above the mid 30's offer price on their own just by turning around the business. Well, they were wrong. With Yahoo! dipping under $20 after the latest sub-par earnings report, and little in the way of promise that they can monetize the undervalued share price, Microsoft throws investors a $31 per share bid. Yahoo! can't turn this down. Shareholders will revolt, myself included. Of course, the Feds have to approve the deal along with Yahoo's board. But what do you think, would combining Yahoo! and MSN accomplish anything in terms of Internet market share?2) Potential Bargains in the Drug and Bank AreasI'm a bit behind schedule blogging about these, but hopefully next week I'll have some thoughts on a couple of large cap laggards; Citigroup and Merck. The goal is to make a compelling...
Are All Consumers in the Same Boat?
2008-01-29 16:10:00 Last weekend I attended some festivities for a friend's birthday that included dinner at the Landmark Buffet at the Ameristar Casino and Hotel (ASCA) in St. Charles, Missouri. Along with spending some time with good friends, I was also especially interested to see how busy the casino was on a Friday night. If you simply looked at the stock prices of the major casino companies in the United States, you would have predicted the place would be empty. Gaming stocks have been crushed lately on consumer spending worries. ASCA stock, for example, is down about 45%, from a high of $38 to the current quote of $21 per share.Such large drops are fairly surprising given that gaming stocks are widely believed to be fairly recession-proof. Rather than take lavish vacations, or even hop on a plane heading to Vegas, people tend to scale back and just drive to a local riverboat casino instead. Despite the typical feeling that gaming holds up okay in recession, the casino stocks this time around hav... More About: Boat , Consumers
Will the Fed Really Cut Rates Twice in a Week?
2008-01-25 16:11:00 This is what I'm worried about. The market got severely oversold and has had a nice bounce as a result. We are not out of the woods by any means. Most market participants will want to see a nice rebound out of the oversold condition, and another leg down (preferably with signs of capitulation). How long will this current rally last? It's hard to know, but I think it could face some issues as early as next week.After the Fed's emergency 75 basis point rate cut on Tuesday, a full week before their scheduled meeting, the futures market immediately priced in another cut for their upcoming meeting. At first the market was expecting another 75 bps, but now it is down to 50 bps. Do you really think Bernanke is going to cut rates again next week? I'm not so sure.The point of an emergency cut is to act early because they don't think they can wait. In this case, they didn't want a market crash on Tuesday (overseas markets were indicating a 5% drop of 600 Dow points). By moving a week ea... More About: Week , Rates
Rebate Checks Will Do Little To Spur Economy
2008-01-24 17:04:00 With Congressional leaders huddled up this week negotiating terms for an economic stimulus package, investors should keep their expectations in check. We won't know how much each taxpayer will receive in rebate money until the plan is approved (estimates are between $300 and $600 per person, plus more if you have children), but regardless of the actual amount, its impact will be minimal at best.The main reason for this can be shown by how Americans tend to behave when they get one-time rebate checks like this. You will recall we have already done this before earlier in the Bush presidency, and the statistics surrounding those rebate checks (despite what Bush supporters might try and tell you about their large economic impact) are quite interesting. According to government data, only about 20% of the rebate check money was spent by consumers (which is the entire argument for such a package). In fact, the largest chunk of the money received, 60%, was used to repay debt.The good part,... More About: Economy , Rebate
What Is A Recession Anyway?
2008-01-22 17:22:00 I say that because all of the sudden it appears the classic definition of a recession (two or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) has been squashed. For the first time, it is becoming agreeable that a group of economists in Boston ultimately get to decide if and when a recession has occurred. As a result, we won't know until after it is over when it actually took place because they will be the official referees. And it appears they can use any metrics they want to make such a determination. How silly!I'm not sure when it was decided that six months of negative economic growth was no longer a good barometer of recessions, but I could hazard a guess. You see, if you look at the final, revised numbers from the 2000-2002 economic downturn (widely asserted to be the last recession) you will see that there were never two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Therefore, we can either say that period was merely a sector-specific, Internet bubble being burst, or we can... More About: Recession
Sears to Split Up Businesses, Adopt Holding Company Structure
2008-01-20 16:18:00 Sears Holding s (SHLD) Chairman Eddie Lampert has decided to move the company one step closer to a Berkshire Hathaway model, according to a story by the Wall Street Journal yesterday. The new holding company structure will split up Sears into as many as three dozen separate businesses, each with its own operating executive. The move is seen as an admittance that the current structure was not working to boost the company's retailing operations, and therefore focusing on each aspect of the company's assets individually will allow for greater control and change. This is similar to the Buffett model, where he has someone running each business and has little say in day-t0-today decision making.Many followers of Lampert have been saying that his plan all along was to emulate Berkshire Hathaway, but initial moves after the Sears/Kmart merger were more focused on cost cutting (which has been successful) and introducing brands like Lands End, Kenmore, and Craftsman into both Sears and Kmart... More About: Company , Sears , Structure , Businesses
With Negative Sentiment Soaring, We Might Be Starting A Bottoming Process
2008-01-18 19:32:00 One of the stranger things about 2007 was the huge discrepancy between different areas of the U.S. stock market. Despite widespread problems, the stock market didn't fare badly unless you looked under the hood. The S&P 500 finished the year up 5%, hardly indicative of the issues we are facing. In fact, of the market's ten major sectors, only two of them trailed the S&P 500 index's return last year. Financial services (-21%) and consumer discretionary (-14%) stocks were correctly pricing in a recession (or something that feels like one) but the other eight sectors just kept humming right along.Well, it appears we are now getting a more realistic reaction in the market to the economic challenges we are dealing with. We've dropped 10% in less than 3 weeks, and the selling has been much more widespread. Realistically, we were due for this type of action. That said, the negative sentiment in the market right now is deafening. We won't know how bad things really are until fou... More About: Soaring , Negative , Process , Sentiment
Earnings Estimates for 2008 Appear Overly Optimistic
2008-01-17 13:58:00 Although fourth quarter earnings reports just started to trickle in, consensus estimates call for 2007 S&P 500 profits to be essentially flat with 2006. Given the huge year-over-year declines in the financial sector, the largest piece of the index, this is not very surprising.What is surprising is that analysts are projecting 2008 earnings to grow by more than 15%. We all know that analysts are rarely spot on with their forecasts, but the possibility of this number being accurate seems even less likely than normal. While the market's P/E using the current forward estimate (less than 14) is not high by any means, bullish investors hoping for a solid market gain this year (at or above historical averages) likely need strong earnings growth to make the case.Given the economic backdrop right now, a less impressive year in the market (more in line with last year) seems like a more reasonable expectation. As far as the economy goes, 2008 probably will be more of a "sorting out" year ... More About: Earnings , Estimates
JPMorgan Chase Shines In Otherwise Ugly Financial Sector
2008-01-16 18:33:00 Of course, a shining performance is all relative when we are talking about the banking sector right now, but still, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) has really navigated this rough environment well so far. I don't own the stock, but certainly wouldn't mind being a shareholder right now. This morning the company reported that 2007 earnings rose 15% to $4.38 per share. Fourth quarter numbers were down sharply, not surprisingly, but overall the company is faring much better than competitors like Citigroup (C).Not only does JPM have much less CDO and sub-prime mortgage exposure, but their credit card portfolio is holding up very well too. Their credit standards clearly have been more conservative than other players. For the fourth quarter, card delinquencies reached 3.5%, up from 3.1% in the prior year, and net charge-offs were 3.9%, versus 3.5% in 2006. While these figures did rise year-over-year, they remain very low for the industry, where many are reporting figures above 5% in recent months.J... More About: Financial , Ugly , Organ , Hase
What To Do When Investments Turn Into Great Trades
2008-01-11 19:45:00 John from California writes:"I know you are a long term investor, but given that one of your 2008 Select List picks just went up 30% in a matter of days, I'm stuck as to what to do, sell or hold on? Any thoughts?"John, thanks for the question. A common answer to this dilemma (feeling compelled to book gains even if your time horizon has not played out yet) is to sell a portion of the position. This gives you the best of both worlds by booking some profits but staying in the stock. Oftentimes I will sell half of a position if I'm really torn about what to do.However, this works best with large gains (say 100%) because you accomplish both taking a lot off the table and maintaining a sizable position for meaningful further gains. With a 30% gain, however, selling half brings your overall position size down to about one-third less than the level it was less than a week ago, which could very well be too small for your taste.In that case, I might consider selling 20%-25% rather than 50... More About: Great , Investments , Turn
BAC/CFC Baseball Analogy
2008-01-11 16:13:00 Sometimes baseball analogies work as well as anything to help explain something. With Bank of America (BAC) buying Countrywide (CFC) for $6.1 billion ($4.1 billion in stock plus the $2 billion in cash they invested last year), one came to mind. I think this is a lot like when a major league pitcher hurts his arm badly and elects to have "Tommy John" surgery. You have to sit out a full year, but the club is banking that an extended period of time off will result in maximum recovery, resulting in the player pitching like this old self when he returns the following year. You sacrifice the near-term in order to maximize long term upside potential.Bank of America was already the largest mortgage player among the big diversified banks. Adding Countrywide (the largest independent mortgage company) makes them the Goliath in the industry. In the short term, this will hurt them. More losses, more write-downs, more delinquencies until the cycle hits bottom and stabilizes. It won't be pretty. ... More About: Baseball , Anal
Third Time's A Charm?
2008-01-10 00:05:00 Earnings season officially kicked off this afternoon, with Alcoa (AA) reporting fourth quarter numbers. Given the worries about the economy, these profit reports obviously carry as much as weight as anything in determining market direction, but they also come at a time when the S&P has once again dropped down to a support area between 1350 and 1400. Since I am not of the belief that the Fed can cure all of our ills on its own, the next few weeks are crucial to whether or not we can maintain these levels again, or if a wider bear market (not just in financials and consumer discretionary stocks) awaits us. More About: Charm
Select List Released, Sneak Peak Below
2008-01-07 16:12:00 The 2008 Select List report has been released. Same format as the prior two years, 10 stocks, one from each of the S&P's sector groups (financials, energy, tech, telco, materials, utilities, industrials, healthcare, staples, discretionary). To give you all a sneak peak, let me go into some detail about one of the areas I think is ripe for investment right now.Last week the major drugstore chains saw their share prices get whacked after less than exciting same store sales numbers. If we ignore the short term monthly and quarterly fluctuations, I think the drugstore area is attractive for long term investors. Let me explain why.The way I see it, drugstores are a combination play on the healthcare and consumer staples sectors. Both of these areas stand to benefit in a cautious market environment, which we clearly are facing right now. While drugstores will likely feel less of a reduction in consumer spending than a discretionary retailer (think clothing, electronics, travel vacati... More About: Released , Peak
Don't Worry, The Blog Isn't Dead
2008-01-03 18:25:00 It has been a couple weeks since I've posted and I apologize for that. The end of the year is always very hectic and this year that has been the case even more than usual. By the middle of the month, I'll be getting back to a more regular posting schedule, but I wanted to thank you all for your patience and let you know I'm still alive!Here is what you can expect throughout January:2008 Select ListThe 2008 Select List research report will be released next week. You may purchase a copy of the annual Select List report as usual, but this year a Select List “Premium” offering will also be available. The goal of the premium product is to provide investors with a way to receive updates throughout the year on the list's stock selections. Premium subscribers will receive email update alerts throughout 2008 discussing newsworthy stories on each company, as well as updated investment analysis based on any significant developments. News, comments, and analysis will be sent out pertain... More About: Blog , Worry , Dead
The Consumer is Far From Dead...
2007-12-18 15:29:00 If you believe Best Buy to be a good proxy for retail...Best Buy 3Q Profit Rises, Boosts OutlookTuesday December 18, 9:03 am ET Best Buy Earnings Rise 52 Pct in 3Q on Sales of Flat-Panel TVs, Boosts Full-Year OutlookMINNEAPOLIS (AP) -- Best Buy Co., the nation's biggest consumer electronics retailer, said Tuesday its third-quarter profit jumped 52 percent, boosted by holiday shopping and sales of higher-ticket items such as flat-panel TVs. The results beat Wall Street expectations and the company boosted its outlook for the year.Its shares rose more than 2 percent in premarket trading.Profit for the quarter ended Dec. 1 rose to $228 million, or 53 cents per share, from $150 million, or 31 cents per share in the prior-year period.Revenue rose 17 percent to $9.93 billion, from $8.47 billion last year.Analysts polled by Thomson Financial predicted a profit of 41 cents per share on revenue of $9.44 billion. The earnings estimates typically exclude one-time items.Same-store sales ros... More About: Consumer , Dead
Barron's Pans Buffett's Berkshire
2007-12-17 20:22:00 When I heard the media reporting that the Barron's cover story this weekend was a piece warning investors that shares of Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) were overvalued, I was both surprised and in agreement. I think many publications would avoid panning Berkshire's investment merits, even if they believe the stock to be too high, just because we are talking about the greatest investor who has ever lived. On the other hand, the case that BRK is overvalued is pretty strong, so from that standpoint, Barron's might be doing investors a favor by pointing it out.I didn't read the full article, but the news wires are reporting that Barron's concluded that BRK is about 10% overvalued at current levels. I decided to take a quick look at the stock's valuation to see if I agreed with that. I was already aware that Berkshire's P/E was well above 20, which is why I do not own any shares in the company, but at that same time, one could surely argue that most of Berkshire's value should not be ...
U.S. Bancorp Raises Dividend by 6%
2007-12-12 17:17:00 That is not a misprint. There are banks in this country that are raising their dividends. U.S. Bancorp (USB) now yields more than 5% on the new annual payout of $1.70 per share. The lack of worry on their part stems from a very conservative business model. They are simply content growing at a slower rate, and avoiding aggressive lending practices, as opposed to the strategies that other large banks have adopted in recent years. This is evident from USB's press release, which points out the company has raised its dividend for 36 straight years, and has paid one in 145 consecutive years.If you are looking for a high yielding, lower risk bank stock, USB is a solid option in the second tier of companies (large banks, but not the giant banks). Warren Buffett recently upped his stake in the firm, so he obviously likes management here quite a bit. The stock isn't dirt cheap at 12 times forward earnings and about 3 times book value, but sometimes you have to pay a bit more for safety, and... More About: Dividend
Keep Money Market Fund Worries in Perspective
2007-12-11 17:14:00 The media tends to over-hype news. Things are presented as better than they really are in good times and worse than reality in bad times. Recent worries about money market funds that have invested in subprime mortgage-backed securities are just one example. There has been speculation that small investors face the possibility of losing significant amounts of money in their money market investments, despite the appearance of such funds as being very low risk in nature.Yesterday we learned that in fact Bank of America (BAC) was shutting down a $34 billion money market fund. The headlines were grim, but once one actually reads the facts of the situation, it is apparent that it is no big deal at all.First of all, the fund in question is not a typical money market fund. It was an "enhanced" fund that knowingly took on more risk than the average money fund, hence the subprime exposure. As a result, only institutions were allowed to invest (since they understood the risks were greater) and ... More About: Money , Market , Money Market , Fund , Perspective
Why Rate Freezes Won't Solve Foreclosure Problem
2007-12-05 21:15:00 The wires are reporting that the White House is working on a plan that would freeze rates on adjustable rate mortgages for certain borrowers, in an attempt to help curb the rapid increase in home foreclosures expected in coming months. While it certainly will help the situation, consider a slide from Countrywide's Keynote Presentation at the 37th Annual Bank of America Investment Conference in September which showed the following:Causes of Foreclosure (July 2007)58.3% Curtailment of income13.2% Illness/Medical 8.4% Divorce 6.1% Investment property/Unable to sell 5.5% Low regard for property ownership 3.6% Death 1.4% Payment adjustment 3.5% OtherVery interesting... More About: Problem , Rate
Dell Stock Looks Attractive After Last Week's Selloff
2007-12-04 16:40:00 The last time I wrote about the investment merits of Dell (DELL) was six months ago on May 31st. At that time, Dell stock was trading around $28 and my piece entitled "Round Two from Round Rock: 8800 Layoffs at Dell" concluded that the stock wasn't quite cheap enough to peak my interest, and that a valuation range of $29 to $33 per share looked reasonable if the company did a decent job starting to turn things around.Last week Dell hosted its first conference call in ages (they had refrained from issuing earnings numbers due to a probe into stock options practices) which was met with high anticipation but some disappointment due to lack of specifics as to forward guidance. The stock fell hard from the high 20's to the mid 20's and now sits at $24 per share. At these prices, I think Dell shares have limited downside and quite solid upside potential. Today's announcement of a $10 billion stock buyback (repurchases were also halted as a result of the options investigation) only fur... More About: Stock , Attractive , Looks
Do Rate Cuts Really Matter?
2007-11-30 16:20:00 I find it very interesting that Wall Street has soared the last two days on hopes of more Fed rate cuts. On one hand, this makes sense, but on another, it baffles me.First of all, stocks do better historically when rates are falling. It's a mathematical relationship; lower interest rates increase the present value of future cash flows and vice versa. Lower rates also make stocks more attractive relative to other income-related asset classes. That's the general concept propelling stocks higher this week, but what about the specific situation we face today?The current dislocation in the credit markets has really hurt the market lately. We all know the state of the housing, mortgage, and mortgage-backed securities markets, but a general lack of liquidity in many other areas of credit are really having a negative impact on the ability of many companies to conduct normal business lines that require liquidity to fund operations.Will more Fed rate cuts help this part of the problem? The ... More About: Matter , Rate , Cuts
Fifth and Final Free Stock Pick Released
2007-11-29 14:46:00 Yesterday I posted the last of 5 free stock picks as part of my month-long test of Kaching.com. If you have yet to subscribe to the picks portfolio and would like to, simply follow the instructions below.For those who have participated thus far, I just wanted to thank you and remind everyone that feedback submitted to me on the Kaching system automatically enters you into a drawing for a free copy of my 2008 Select List when it is released in January. You may leave feedback either on the site itself (via wall posting) or by using the Contact Us form on Peridot's web site. I am most interested in learning if there is interest in having future Select List products be offered as mock portfolios updated in real-time via a system like Kaching, rather than PDF reports issued twice per year as they are now.Thanks again for participating, and follow the steps below if you have yet to subscribe to Peridot Capital's Free Pick s Portfolio:To sign up for the Peridot Capital Free Picks Portfoli... More About: Stock , Released , Final
Putting the Correction in Perspective
2007-11-26 21:29:00 November has been the worst month for stocks in several years. The S&P 500 is now negative for the year, and sits 10% below its high and 8.5% lower this month alone. Not only do long term investors like myself take a multi-year outlook of the future when investing money, but it also helps to put things in perspective by looking back at where the markets have come from in a multi-year scenario. Much like a student who gets a C on a tough exam might be in fine shape if previous grades in a semester have been all A's, investors need to realize that markets don't go up all the time, just as good students can't possibly ace every test.Stock prices rise, on average, 75 to 80 percent of the time in any given year. After four magnificent years of gains in the market, we are overdue for some poor performance. We might finish down this year, or next year, or both, but regardless, take a look at how far we have come over the last five years:We can't possibly expect gains like this to c... More About: Putting , Perspective , Rect
Lampert, Sears Make Play for Restoration Hardware
More articles from this author:2007-11-21 16:24:00 Just days after I wrote about the focus at Sears (SHLD) being store redesigns, not non-core asset sales, we get a timely SEC filing from the company announcing its interest in bidding for home furnishings retailer Restoration Hardware (RSTO). The comments from Sears are very interesting. Chairman Eddie Lampert has been eyeing the company since June, and this month alone has increased his stake by 3.4 million shares, bringing SHLD's total ownership to 5.3 million shares, or 14%.In case you didn't read the filing, here is what we know. Lampert indicated his interest in acquiring or partnering with RSTO in June, but he did not meet with management to discuss a deal until October. At that point he offered $4.00 per share for RSTO, which was 40% above where the stock was trading. RSTO indicated that price was too low, but Lampert insisted on conducting due diligence before raising his bid. On November 8th, RSTO announced a management led buyout (along with private equity firm Catterton... More About: Play , Make 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 |
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