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China Shares Scandals rock the market
2008-10-09 17:07:00
I would be blind not to record this in this trading diary of mine. FerroChina , was viewed as one of the titan of the S-shares could not repay a loan. In this bear market, many scandals and negative corporate news has surfaced from S-shares.... i have long doubted the quality of those companies listed in our bourse. I mean why are the best listed in HK market? US market? So those that list in Singapore? Another observation is many of those china shares are fast becoming penny shares... look at Hongxin... one by one they were being shot down... mercilessly... sino-env, synear, jiutian, cosco, yzj, so many of them! With the current bad news on Ferro and China Dye, it should drive more fear into investors. Especially those who were sold stories about how good these china shares are.That's why today i choose to short yanlord at $1. My view is, it is a lower high and there is no incentive for S-shares to rally for now. Confidence will be at a low after the scandals. Furthermore...
More About: Market , Rock , Scandals , Shares

Will Concerted efforts salvage the situation?
2008-10-08 14:28:00
News is out, concerted efforts to cut interest rate by major central banks. This is the action that i have been wary about. It always happen. The more i am in this trade, the more experience i gets. Hence when similar situation happens, i know what to anticpate. True i miss out the greatest plunge in history by covering my shorts early. I looked back, would i have done the same? No. After covering capland, cosco, yanlord, plus the profits from my HSI trades, i should not covered all my shorts. With the profits in my account, i would be only risking my profits if i hang on to my noble shorts and leave a trailing stop. This is a simple rule in trading, risking profits to make bigger profits. Something i was so used to doing yet this round, i miss a great chance to make more money. Is this greed? No i think this is a chance for me to reflect and remind myself to be always sharp. Perhaps dabbling in forex took my focus away from my positions. After some months in forex, i find that it i...
More About: Situation

Bailout plan no big deal
2008-10-05 16:51:00
After being rejected, the bailout plan finally got approved for the second time. When i was long S&P, my anticipation was a reactive rally to the approval. I was wrong. The market did a sell on news to close the week negative. 10,000 level may be tested in coming days. Althought the bailout plan was approved, the slew of economic data that came last week were bad. Even oil fell below US$90.... then.... why on earth are we going to have a 20% increase in electricity bills for??? Tey say is because of forward something... then throw out some terms which nobody understands? It's like when someone ask me how fast is Ferarri, i answered, because of the 0.55 mm diameter of the cylinder, it can combust the air and fuel better.... What the heck! Anyway, if it's forward, econ data pointing to slow down, GDP forecase is down, Oil price is down, How come going forward it's going up??? I sold my Synear after it doesn't go down despite broadbase market is going down. The logi...
More About: Deal , Plan , Bailout

Double blows to the bulls
2008-09-29 17:11:00
As many would have guessed, how can there be no bailout plan? The bailout plan is 90% complete pending approval now. The market took a double blow when another big bank ought to sell some assets to Citi and then over at europe side, a couple of banks have to be rescued. This is evidence that the credit crunch has spread.... all we need is one such case in Asia and we might see more blood. Even HK dai kor HSI also ozzes blood today... 4% hor... no joke. My view of a short term rebound due to the bail out package seems to be too optimistic. Even the bullish divergence looks to be negated by the selling today. But! As we draw closer to the previous low, the better.... coz' technically a bottom formation may be formed. Currently i am enjoying the ang mo platform alot... it gives me so much options! I am both into stocks and forex and index... wah if not for my limited brain cells, i would have monitored commodities too!Continue to hold Synear... what i need is tainted dumpl...
More About: Double , Bulls

Buffett's US$5B inspired Asia
2008-09-24 16:00:00
Asia opened positive and closed higher encouraged by Buffett's overnight US$5B purchase of goldman sachs. I was stopped out of my S&P long overnight. Did i turn long? Not yet... i still ain't see resistance broken yet. The way where market fell from resistance with high volume yesterday may suggest strong hands unloading. To be sure, the next time we are at resistances, the selling will come with heavy volume yet again.Friday is the dateline of the bailout plan. Currently the market is undecided with neither the bulls nor the bears dare to take much risk. The bailout plan can cause the market to swing either way.... i am keeping a lookout and watching how market is anticipating the move.Again most of the prices are in the middle of nowhere, during this volatile times, it is prudent to wait for the price at significant levels.DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of ...
More About: Asia , Inspired

Bulls tried but failed
2008-09-23 17:07:00
Isn't it scary? The wild wild swing continue after an unexpected triple digit loss in wall street. I read this selling as a dangerous sign. Reason being, it could be strong hands unloading at pop up in a typical bear market. A clear sign will be another test of this level, and the stock refuse to move up with heavy volume. This is where i will try to initiate short positions. Otherwise, i will see how the pull back is trading and look for opportunities to go long. Even SGX is getting tougher with naked shortists. I hope they leave CFDs alone... otherwise we will be like KLSE and JSX... can only long and not short. Currently i long a S&P contract at 1220 level. If i am right, i will see 1250 soon before 1280... Synear short looks safe for now, and anyupside, i think will be capped. Despite the tainted milk scandal, ChinaMilk is still resilient. I wonder why hasn't it been a shortist target? Or isit because it is too obvious? As for local stocks, i am still looking ...
More About: Bulls

Grand Stand Finish
2008-09-21 16:03:00
Now even US ban shorting 799 US banking stocks following UK's actions. China declare they will buy the 3 main bank stocks with their funds. Read the news, so many pieces of news suggest the government will not let the banking system fails and rightly so. Remember i was also a shortist, but i gladly give up some profits and cheer this intervention by strong hands. Really, so what if i make from my shorts and see world economy goes down? Let's hope with Paulson's 700B proposal, the rut can stop and let us recover from there.Short term wise, no doubt there will be a rally, any weakness looks like a buy to me. But one must be nimble. I will be wary for any strong hands distributing on the way up. The positive divergence adds strength to this rally. So when to buy? What to buy? I still prefer to wait for a pull back before deciding. Surely i will not short stocks for now. If the world is working hard to make it happen, either you join them, or you get the hell out of their way!I cover...
More About: Grand , Stand , Finish

Central bankers rescue the market yet again
2008-09-18 15:21:00
Sinking my bum onto the sofa, CNBC blasting away on TV, today i choose my battle ground in the living room. All i am interested from the news now is facts and not opinons from analysts or gurus. If you realise, non of them saw AIG or Lehman coming.....As a trader, it is our job to observe how the market is reacting to the facts and that is how we formulate trading ideas. This will ensure we will be in control when chaos breakout. Remember i was liquidating my short positions as the market head lower to avoid risk as i see the probability of a rebound higher than going lower. Look, unlike a bull market, when the market tanks too fast too furious, there is always a risk of government intervention. While they can let the market rise all it wants, but when it comes to going down, they are not going to sit aside and do nothing. Just like how Fed had to save AIG and giving up Lehman. A shortist's nightmare is when strong hands come in and squeeze the air out of them!This is the s...
More About: Market , Rescue , Central

Genocide in Stock Market
2008-09-11 16:11:00
I couldn't find a better word to describe what i saw in the stock market. Genocide ... certainly an appropriate word. Look at the badly battered stocks...I almost couldn't recognise some of them... When was the last time we saw Cosco below $2??? The chart looks damn familiar.... it looks like a dessert which i long time no eat... Ice KaChang... hearsay Bedok interchange sell the best?I covered my Dow and HSI shorts on Tuesday to reduce my risk exposure while still keeping noble grp. Technically this stock looks "holland" to me and what's more, with the market paying alot of attention to oil and commodities weakness, it will cap any rebound and aid in the sell-down. If you have followed my blog long enough, you know my style is to stick with the trend. It is quite obvious that this is a bear market and a downtrend. The only time which had me second guessing is during the june to july period where market is trading sideways, and the breakout to either direction have everyone guessin...
More About: Stock Market , Market , Stock

A beary volatile market
2008-09-03 16:56:00
Hello all! It's been quite some time since i last shared. Basically nothing exciting going on and that's why i didn't post. I am still the same, holding on to shorts and no longs for me. Cut my oceanus the next day after the breakdown and keep my noble shorts. Now i am also holding a short on dow at 11,420 level. Other than that, i too suspect we may be near a bottom and ripe for a rebound. The thing to watchout for is whether we continue to break new low. Indicator though is showing bullish divergence, but let's not forget indicator is lagging and classical T.A should take precedence. If you have been following the market, yes it is volatile. One day up one day down. That's why we must form an opinion on the market direction and stick to it. Trading in and out is sure going to kill the amateur's account. The thin market of August is over and we are seeing increasing volume. Bad news is, stocks are being hammered out of daylight. But is this even surprising? Of ...
More About: Market

Market volume drying up
2008-08-25 14:15:00
Guest probably made a very good point on how much one can make if he keeps getting in and out of the market... win only a few bids but when lose, hold until blood ozzles out. That's why i prefer position trading, where trades are done at important technical levels. Then we take profit by huge chunk and cut loss when it's small. This is key to be sucessful in trading. Over the past year, i have tried forex too. This explains why i wasn't around most of the time. However, i must say, i didn't enjoy trading forex as it takes up too much of my time. Stocks though slow which also means more forgiving when one is complacent in trading. If you dare try being complacent when trading forex, prepare for a big hole in your pocket. Oceanus looks to be in trouble with the weak closing today, only consolation is the volume is not on the high side. Support has been broken and i do not like this stock anymore. Was in a meeting this afternoon and missed the closing, otherwise i would h...
More About: Market , Volume

Bulls and bears trade blow for blow
2008-08-24 17:38:00
I was taken for a ride last week literally. Well, i was really on the way to KL for a meeting because the first National Investors Symposium is 3 weeks away and there are some stuffs to tie up. My profit in HSI swung from over $900 bucks to just $50 over 2 days. And guess what? after i took my profit, market went down again. I re-examined my decision, yes if i have "yue guang bao he" aka time machine, i would still do the same. 21k did broke and i was waiting for it for quite sometime and acted. The rebound came unexpectedly and the intensity is something not within my expectations. Hence i would still have taken my profits. Though it is frustrating, but this is exactly how i would have done it the second time. No choice, this is market. It is watching me, it will try it's very best to trip me in my quest for wealth. I have long been used to it. I too took profit on my yanlord shorts on Wednesday. With the profits built up from cashing in from my recent shorts, i contin...
More About: Trade , Bears , Bulls

Support cracked under pressure
2008-08-18 14:45:00
Ok ask me a seond time, isit painful to have missed FerroChina... YES! haha This market is really seriously going down. Solid results also no one cares anymore. The theme is like to sell sell and sell! I feel that it was really bearish when a good heavy volume buy up 1 week ago has no follow through. What we got is only an almost and equally heavy volume sell down. It fits the saying "Jack up to unload". STI and HSI both cracked their support. I went short on HSI near closing using CFD. My view is, this week, HSI should close under 21k. There seems to be little incentive to hold up. Especially when results couldn't stir buying interest, what else can? Dow's performance has been largely ignored. If Dow's rally doesn't cheer Asia, what will happen if dow crashes? Or maybe if Dow continues to head higher, Asia will go lower? Banks are still holding up... maybe base on rotation, they will be next? Watch those support levels man... this information may also be used to tim...
More About: Support , Cracked

2 hardest things to do in trading
2008-08-17 17:50:00
Guess what are the 2 most difficult things to do in trading? Taking profit and cutting loss. Of course the latter is what caused the fall of many people. I took my shorts profits on FerroChina at 1.28 as it was going to report results the same evening and i thought the result will be fantastic and judging from the way how the support is holding well, I chosen to keep my profits. Friday at opening bell, indeed it gaps up.... but the closing was very very weak and it closed at the low! If only i have the guts to stay put.... yes the big "if" word.. this word will cause alot of complacency in trading if allowed to manifest in the trader. If you ask me, do i feel the pain missing out on FerrorChina? Answer is no. Because i decide what i want to feel. In trading, you got to be decisive and not overly hesistant. This somehow has also slipped into how i lead my life and quite alot of times, i cannot stand people around me. Alas, what i do in trading cannot be applied to handling human bein...
More About: Trading , Things

Shortists squeezed
2008-08-14 18:16:00
For this week, it is not hard to notice many stocks are not going down. Yesterday i covered my noble shorts, and today i took my profits on Ferror after a strong closing. This evening it is expected to report a good set of results and from the actions, it looked like it may be very good. Hence i opt to take my profits off the table first. Currently market is squeezing the shortists... i saw many stocksChinaFish has a classic candlestick reversal pattern.... together with many S-shares, a rebound on the cards? Maybe another lower high in the making? Some of them staves off 2008 lows. Interesting. With Dow strong strong ignoring a inflationary CPI... tomolo got chance. Currently oil price is going south and market shrugs off the strong CPI. CPI was high due to energy prices. Now with oil price slipping, commodities slipping, it brings hope to the market that the CPI will decrease as well. A stronger dollar will also help. After a brief decline, we are now trading near the ...

Woke up just in time
2008-08-11 14:09:00
I am feeling really satisfied as i see my profit grew over the last few days. The timing was inch perfect. The day, i confessed about being losing passion and trying hard to re-ignite my passion, market started to break downwards. I done my homework and all 3 short positions are into profits. Today I cashed out on Noble Grp after 1.85 support refused to crack. Look, i could have taken my profits at a much lower price at 1.79, but nope... I am not God and i cannot predict so accurately that 1.79 is the lowest and best price to take my profit. I can only take when i am convinced Noble group may have a sustainable rebound. I also checked the weekly charts, rebound looks probable. Another thought is, oil price has been heading down, nothing goes down one straight line. Hence the rebound may stir interest in commodities again thus inflict a rebound in Noble. The wise man has this saying, "Profits on the table doesn't belong to you. Profits in the pocket in yours."These few da...
More About: Time , Just in time

A strong Dollar & a weak oil
2008-08-10 11:46:00
As the title suggests, this is what drove the market up overnight in the ang mo land. Despite bad news from the financial sector, it still managed to close up 300 points. Very volatile indeed. This is indeed a very challenging time for investors as the market can swing either way wildly. The number one question everyone will be asking is, will we follow Dow? Last few rounds, we are moving opposite direction of Dow. Whenever there is a gap up, it ends up as a black candle. So what i will be observing tomorrow will be follow through buying as well as resistance being taken out. Once this phenomenon is seen plus more follow through buying, then the market direction may have changed. Time to look out for evidence for this. Dow is now exactly at my support turns resistance. It will be very nice for Dow to turn down from you which means it will eventually heads lower.I'm on 3 short positions. Surely the overnight 300 points rally is disgusting to me. I thought i had nailed it when Dow fe...
More About: Dollar , Strong

Stock Market bleeds
2008-08-07 18:46:00
It's 1:17am now as i am blogging this....hehe back to my old commited self! Just met up old friends and had a wonderful time sharing the past and updating each other..... wah... time really flies...we were only 17 when we hang out at snookerium, KTVs and "ponteng" lectures..... i think a part of my life was missing. I had little memory of what i did from 2005 to 2007 because i was too obssessed with market. I studied my psychological behaviour ever since i shrug off the lazy bug and forced myself to blog. The benefit is i am very close to the market and the "feel" is back. Whenever i am alone, my mind will drift to the charts and i form different market scenarios and my reactions to them. Yes, i do feel a sense of satisfaction from this. Because i quit my job for this last year and trading is what i should be doing. However, it is also hurting my family. While i was still a bachelor, studying this late into the night is not a problem. But it can't be done when you are sh...
More About: Stock Market , Market , Stock

Market drops a bomb shell on investors.
2008-08-05 16:56:00
This is exactly what i am wary about taking long positions in the last few weeks. Any swing trades profits would have been wiped out cleanly. Exactly what i went through in 2004. Like my ang mo shi fu said, "Market never changed because humans never change". Even as of now, everyone i met bound to be stuck in some stocks. Alas, the discipline of cutting loss is found wanting. But i just want to assure you guys out there who are stuck at the high. The past doesn't represent the future. Back then, i was a laughing stock in front of my friends. No problem about that, just stay confidence continue to improve so when the next bull market comes, you will be the last one laughing. Maybe not, WE will be the last one laughing. : )But one thing you should note is, whatever money lost now, you make sure you still have capital. If 90% is stuck, then raise cash....reevaluate your lifestyle and save up your capital to prepare for the future opportunities. Also, do not be in a revenge mode.... bi...
More About: Shell , Bomb , Investors , A-Bomb

Olympic fever hots up?
2008-08-03 18:12:00
Wooo... so many words of encouragements... keke I'm fine i'm fine... i'm just shooting my mouth off here in cyberspace. keke trying to psyche myself up. Actually it's simple, while i have not lost my T.A skills, my psychlogy may have lost abit. Hence what i am doing now is acting out what i was doing when i was passionate abt trading. I think it is logical. It was writting in this trading diary that allowed me time to digest the charts i have seen to form an opinion on the market. Hence inorder to get back this passion, i just need to blog more. Infact, last few rounds of blogging, i already feel more commited. The next more exciting stuff will be the graduates gatherings and tutorial classes that i am going to plan. There are people out there who has attended my course. I intend to setup this support to help this people in trading. While i cannot guarantee you become a millionaire, i want to make you a T.A practitioner!A scan on XPertTrader showed that many of the Chi...
More About: Olympic , Hots , Fever

Big swings
2008-07-30 15:09:00
I skipped one night of blogging because i went to a preview talk on a trading platform. I struggled. I stared down the corridor which leads to my rooms.... bedroom is on the left and study room is on the right... i think and re-think... finally the left side of the brain said sleep! keke Anyway, i found another reason for the laziness. The lack of exercise. I still remember i always take the chance whenever i went jogging to formulise trading ideas or creative ways to use XPertTrader. I think i did blog about this......my ang mo shi fu said that, inorder to be in tip top condition for trading, healthy lifestyle is a must as it keeps your mind agile. Hence another step i am taking would be to incoporate exercising. Soon i will influence my team mates to run around empress place as well as esplanade, maybe even padang. I just love the sunset in the evening in that area. I still remember standing at one fullerton with full view of marina bay back in 2005.... i pointed to Ritz Carlton h...

Quiet market
2008-07-28 16:49:00
Indeed, this blog has lead me to know many great people and talking here online, allows me to vent my frustration and get my act right. Penning down your thoughts is always a good way to be clear to yourself, what you want. I wanted to get back to my passionate self and i wrote about it. By writting, i had forced myself to think positive and the small steps to getting back the passion. Today i dragged myself to this laptop and type away! My very first small step! I remember back in those days, even after i went Mdm Wong (My generation will understand) back at 1am, i will still flip charts... while i may be enjoying my night out, my head was thinking abt trading ideas for the next day... haha those were the days....First of all, thanks to 4 kind souls who replied to my last post. Anonymous, just like you say, set a big target that will benefit not only me, but many others. Today i did something spectacular. (How timely) I rejected a customer. There was this uncle who had vi...
More About: Market , Quiet

Neither hungry nor foolish
2008-07-27 15:37:00
As often as i used to write, trading is not only about technical analysis. Inorder to generate wealth, you need to have money management, otherwise it will be win here lose there, nothing fantastic. The other more important factor is psychology. That was my edge in the market place. Everyone can learn technical analysis and money management easily but when it comes to managing psychology, everyone will know but not practise it. This is human nature and this is why stock market is the way it is. Someone has to lose the money and the next person picks it up. Ask anyone who has been to my seminar, i have no qualms about sharing the signals and when to buy and such with no holds bar kind of presentation. But when i talk about managing of psychology, often times the interest was not there. At times i was so frustrated. I knew it is what made me trade successfully and yet i couldn't convince them to pay attention to it. Ever since i came back from my 2 months break late last yea...
More About: Hungry

JSX: Aneka Tambang (ANTM)
2008-07-26 03:07:00
The bluelines are support lines where it is better to fish there. Target of the D-triangle is shown. However, because it is bigger than 2 months, it is a very loose pattern and there is a possibility that we will not see the target. 1810 is another significant level to watch. Should there be any rebound, it will be kept at the red line. The gap down will be the first resistance as we look forward to a test of this falling window. On the weekly chart, a doji has formed signifying the bears are taking a break... watch for a white candle with strong volume by next friday as a hint of reversal maybe.DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

The rebound everyone is waiting for
2008-07-24 13:15:00
Over the last few weeks, it has been really a test of patience as i watched how the market ding dong without any significant upside or downside. I had a choice to trade intra-day, but alas i decided that i will stick to my plans of building a short portfolio. The lacklustre behaviour of the market send boredom to my life. All these years i have been very active in the market and enjoying every moment. Last few weeks has been extremely bored. Even as of today, i wouldn't say it is a good time to load up. I couldn't see any evidence of good bullish or bearish tinge. Recent actions has been, long also die, short also die. While there are small swings to profit from, but i been there before. The year was 2004... then we were trading 3 steps down, 2 steps up. What happen to me was, i made profits from the small swings... pocketing 2 to 4 cents one way. However, it drained my account. How did that happen? Because everytime i lose, i got hit 3 to 5 cts in addition of the bro...
More About: Waiting

A quick look at STI
2008-07-23 07:04:00
It is notable that despite Dow Jones Index recording a new low for 2008, STI is still trading above the 7 month low. The gap from 2832 to 2878 may act as a technical support for the near term and we observed that the RSI is showing a bullish divergence. There may be overhead resistance from the 20-day moving average. DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Quick , Quick Look

Asia catching up with Dow
2008-07-15 09:42:00
After 3 weeks of inactivity, finally the market hots up. Stocks started the brief rebound last week and today it all came into an abrupt end. I am only too glad that the market tanked today otherwise it is really very difficult to understand it. At least now i know the simple rules of the market still works and i am able to get the direction right. Despite all these talk about de-couple from US bla bla bla, today Asia market decided to finally cave in and joined the US in the south pole. As i am writting this, Dow has broken the 11k psychological support. Next major support will be at 10,700 thereabouts. Asia has a long way to catch up since the Mar'08 low is still intact. HSI support is targetted at 20,800 and STI? 2743 should go first.How do we explain the selling in S-shares? simple, all you need to do is understand why does it go up in such high volume? One of my traing principle, if the stock has higher than usual volume and the price doesn't go higher, it has to c...

Asia De-coupled with US
2008-07-13 10:02:00
While dow broke to new low for 2008, HSI, Nikkei & STI are still staying above the Mar'08 low. What is happening here? Nan dao, we are really de-coupled with Dow? The super-power is no longer Dow but China? Perhaps history is in the making for all of us to witness how China takes over as super power. Friday's strong closing came after days where market teased to the downside. I was definitely looking at a break to the downside, however market holds steady. The fact that it can holds steady despite Dow keeps going lower is a cause of concern for my shorts. I just checked the Dow's chart, still as ugly only thing is again it is in the state of oversold a rebound is likely. Even on STI, i wouldn't immediately call it the reversal. There are methods to identify reversal and the born of an uptrend and i will rather wait for these tell tale signs. The rebound on Friday brought many China stocks near their resistance. I will be waiting to see, what to see? If any of thos...
More About: Asia

Grossly oversold
2008-07-06 08:49:00
Delightful is the word i would use to describe how i feel when the market came down whole week long. Recalling how i was wrong about market moving higher in May, i made a decision to square off all my long positions to re-analyse the direction. Then i believed the market is heading down and from the way i read the market, i had a feeling 3000 and 12000 will not hold. Simply put it, if these levels hold, i would square off my shorts or should they break, i can look to short. My plan is to develop an opinion and trade in that direction while looking out for evidence that my opinion is wrong. This method is much better than "I see market up, i long, i see market red, i short" a sure way to lose money consistently. One of the question frequently asked was, when can i short? My answer is very simple, two levels we must know. Support and Resistance. Resisted at resistance or break support and we look to short. This is the only way you have the highest probability in your favour....

Dow broke March's low
2008-06-29 09:46:00
Dow has broke the psychological support level which is the low achieved in March. The ADX is screaming at a strong downtrend. However with such an extreme movement on this indicator, we may see light at the end of the tunnel. This may be just a slight rebound. Especially with RSI in oversold. I will be watching for major support levels in most stocks. Once they crack, "mai tu liao". DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.