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It is indeed very ugly
2009-06-16 13:31:00
The thing about working in KL is, either u go home at 4pm, otherwise you must stay until 8pm... anything in between, you get stuck in peak hour jam.... that's how it was for me over the last few days. The worse part is the internet at the apartment is super unstable... can't even post anything here. Add all these to the recent market correction, super recipe for a frustrating experience. wahahaTruth be told, i have 3 long positions! Yeah this should be very juicy and hot to read about keke. When i went long last week, i knew the risk is significantly higher than previous 2 months. Especially when i do not see a follow through in buying after the wave of signals. The only thing that protects me from burning a big hole in my trading account is my stop loss levels with a 2% capital limited loss. Each time when i put up a position, the first thing i would consider is how much am i losing in this trade if i am wrong. As it is now, all 3 of my positions are still closing at the s...
More About: Ugly

1 more try to scale Mt 2400
2009-06-10 15:07:00
Nikkei led this superb rally today.. the usually weak Nikkei has the audacity to test 10,000 points. HSI and STI both are now closer to the previous high..18,900 and 2400 respectively. If we can close the week above these levels.. bullish! Even Dow is very close to 9k...I favour two sectors - Properties and Commodities as they shown great volume behaviour over the last 2 days. Especially for today where the whole market moves up a gear in anticipation of a rally! Yeah... it's in the air... we can all smell it. Only Dow stands in the way between a nightmare and a sweet dream.I have a whole long list of signals. Signalling that this may be the next wave upwards. This time really must maximise the opportunity.DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogs po...
More About: Scale

Bulls got slaughtered
2009-06-08 16:23:00
This deep deep pull back caught everyone by surprise. I had high hopes of seeing Financials take the lead to clear 2400... it's all but vanished as the bears mercilessly sold down the market. Is this the start of another bear leg? I doubt so... technically we had moved too high too fast.. it's only natural to pull back for consolidation. Especially property sector.Now it is time to watch how market trades at support... the next chance to long or short is very very near.... just a few more days and we will be staring at key support levels. My eyes will be on which sector to turn the corner first! Or which sector to lead the downfall?DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogs pot/ntBQ
More About: Bulls

Financials and Commodities to pull ahead?
2009-06-07 16:11:00
2400 remains a stubborn resistance for STI. It looked as if we are going to turn ugly from here but the market remains resilient. From my sector analysis performance chart, it looked like Financials and Commodities may be leading the next charge at 2400.Props and the rest remains weak for now. Offshore looks kinda of flat for now. We can understand why, a quick glimpse at the charts and you can see that they are not moving in unison for now. Everyone is surprised to see Cosco lagging.... Kepcorp has a customer bankrupted, SembMar mysteriously came down. Maybe a consolidation is good for this sector.I was flipping my archives today and found this >>> http://growmoney.blogspot.com/2007/01/gro wmoney-growth-fund-swings-into.html .... the day i broke even. : ) Whenever i read this... it reminds me to be humble and stick my foot firmly on the ground. Especially the part on wedding... a wedding delayed... haha what was i thinking back then!C, this is dedicated to you... i hope you ...
More About: Ahead , Pull

GrowMoney Sector Analysis
2009-06-04 18:30:00
As you can see, while the rest of the sectors were pulling back, Financials are still strong. It was the last one to turn up. The last updated on my indices shows that many have pointed lower. The next thing of interest is which sector will be the first to turn up. I will update again on the sector of interest.For now, my screening shows that we have a pretty decent day where the support still stands. This is something which i had wanted to see. The average volume for leading stocks are not high on this retracement day. I went long again on financial with a single position this time since in the afternoon we rebounded off the lows. I had actually wanted to be agressive with another position on HSI. However, surely when the index is near the stubborn 2.4k, it is not time to be agressive yet.DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you ag...
More About: Analysis

Bulls got slayed in the final hours
2009-06-03 16:16:00
The morning began with a quick peek at how Dow closes.. A mere 19 points up and Nikkei was flat.. i heaved a huge sigh of relief as i am wary of bearish confirmation today since there were many ugly candles yesterday. The day erupted into a rally throughout the day and financial and property led strongly. However, just like yesterday, the day ends like a fart. I view the afternoon selloff as a bearish sign with many stocks unable to break higher. HSI is the one that dragged us... a shooting star now lingers on the daily chart. I was away for a meeting.... otherwise i would have shorted HSI near closing... keke *Horse Back Canon" Another point that i considered was Dow had closed right on the 200DMA resistance last night. Usually, if it wants to clear resistance, it will just burst through.... Lastly, Nikkei after market, its futures retraced badly.. very ugly.. With the odds stacked against me... i think keep the profits better. I missed a bulk of the property rally... to be...
More About: Final , Bulls , Hours

Bulls over-shadowed
2009-06-02 15:45:00
The market turned soft after lunch along with the big gap down by HSI. Being long on two stocks, i would have loved to see another bullish day. Unfortunately market decides to pull back. Although it is normal for market to pull back after the strong rally on Monday, but while screening the whole market, i found alot of bearish candles lying around.. those with high upper shadows.. Some even formed bearish engulfing pattern. Even STI closed rather weak off the 2400 gate. Where is the bull strength it exhibits weeks ago?Property sector exhibits extreme weakness. After leading STI to clear the 2280 level, they showed great selling interest. What if last rally was due to window dressing? Usually they will undress, is the market experiencing undressing? If weakness continues tomorrow, i will watch those key support levels closely. Lets cross our fingers that this is just an intra-week pull back.Financial stocks? Though STI broke through 2280 successfully, this sector has been r...
More About: Bulls

Financials to lead next wave?
2009-05-31 15:13:00
On the last trading day of the week, finally i see some glimpse of hope from the financial sector. If market is to move in a rotation fashion, then surely it will be their turn to rock the market while properties take a rest? The powerful rally of the property sector reminded me of 2005 where Mr Mah announce a bullish news for the developer... something like they make it easier to buy private properties... then all hell breaks lose for the property sector. Perhaps some news is leaking out already? Anyway, since i don't belong to the privileged, i need to work harder.Currently, the divergence on Dow is very pronounced. As such, i am not adding positions as yet. The last time i ignored a divergence, orh bak kak... keke those sudden crash type of market... the pain still lingers inside me... the fear is almost bone crushing.. 8.6k is where i set my sights on...After doing my random walk in the stock market through XPertTrader, generally i have 2 feels. Firstly, there are strong ...
More About: Wave , Lead

Interest rotated back in Properties sector
2009-05-27 14:59:00
The sign i was waiting for has appeared. That is the breaking of previous high in the property sector. It doesn't matter whether isit the banks or the props or the offshore. One of them ought to lead. Now that the props have moved, I set my sights on the below:a. They must continue to go up, or at least no candlestick weakness. I view it extremely bearish if this breakout come back down on heavy volume.b. Banks, offshore to be the next. Tech sector? I wouldn't bet on them as yet.c. Offshore services like swiber, federal, swissco...etc.. should also be on the watchlist.d. Commodities, i think put one side first..e. My friend reminded me that the settlement for index May futures is coming up...hence index may be volatile.. acid test is what happens after that.Super test my patience... it is trading nicely along the 20-dma.. When will it's turn come? Semb Mar, YZJ, Kepcorp still running... Unless, cancellation of contracts again??? Or major shareholder selling? But like Gent...
More About: Back , Interest , Properties

Offshore laggards
2009-05-24 15:25:00
Nothing to shout about at Friday's closing. Especially how Dow gave way in the final hour. On the hourly chart, i can see lower high already formed. However i may discount that because it's a public holiday on Monday for US market and thus not trading. Hence traders may opt to square off positions to enjoy the long weekend.If you look at Cosco, SembMar and Yang Zhi Jiang, you can't help wonder why is this sector not moving? KepCorp already moved off May's low but not the laggards. Either these 3 stocks will be the darling of the market in upcoming sessions or this sector may not be the best for me to get vested.Other sectors like banking and props seems to be consolidating. It may still be early days to latch onto these sectors. I will turn cautious and wary of further corrections if stocks test and fail at the previous high in this coming week. I have observed last week that the market seems to be drifting higher and then got sold down quickly. The only positive i take...
More About: Offshore

Watching those highs
2009-05-20 13:42:00
The retracement i was looking for appeared and it was in the strongest of fashion. Most of the stocks are rebounding off their 38.2% Fibo level. I learnt that this level is most useful in very strong price movement. Bingo! 3 weeks ago the rally is considered strong.... with that 38.2% supported... hence it may suggest that this rally can continue. My plan was to sapu stock at the retracement and watch if we breaks previous high as an indication of strength. I checked around, there are many stocks breaking their previous highs. Something that is positive in my opinion. Next to observe would be if there are bearish divergences around. There are still many stocks which i can go long technically. But i always prefered to trade high liquidity stock. Like UOB-KayHian has a buy signal, but due to the low volume, i will still give it a miss. Following sectors is one big advantage i learnt along the years. To make big or small money depends on the position sizing.I been monitorin...
More About: Watching

A normal Bull market retracement?
2009-05-17 15:17:00
Finally we closed the week in the black. Many had asked why wasn't the blog updated. The truth is, i was keeping to my plan: to wait for the retracement to complete and i shall try long. May is coming to an end...The notion of sell in May, go away lingers on my mind. Anyhow, to me, the current upward trend is still intact. Many had said this is a bear market rally... it has ended. I for 1 will not be worried about that, to me, so long market is in a trend, that is where i can make easy money. Since my indicators are telling me uptrend, i shall continue to look to buy. The timing is crucial and as of now, the market hasn't turned. I checked the global indices, the leading sectors and stocks... we ain't going down as yet. For assurance, it will be good if we have a powerful rally to take out the previous high. Otherwise deja vu.Let us be clear, what can be the catalyst for a selldown or resume of bear market? Bank's stress test reveals that only 74B need to be raised......
More About: Market , Bull , Bull Market , Normal

Focussing on the next move
2009-05-11 15:27:00
I'm sure i am not alone... many would have taken profit and miss a bulk of this rally. I was sad.... to see the price flew off after taking profit... wah... fly a bit nevermind, not when i only capture 8% gain out of 40%? It took me 2 days to get over it. For the record, i didn't chase the rally. Past experiences of pain told me to act sensibly. A couple of things, I didn't make my money at the beginning of the last bull cycle. I made my money during the upward trend, and the recent bear market. Hence i know, miss this round, no problem! There is always the next trade. The most important thing is that i must know what to observe before i put on my next trade. It's actually bery simple... the first pull back, i will not short, rather, i will find the low and go long. Now after i long, i will be looking to see if we can break previous high, if we fail to do so, we would have a lower high.. from there, i will run my longs, then turn short... i will add more shorts, if we ...
More About: Move

Results from Tradersclub
2009-05-04 16:37:00
Dearest all,I just want to share some of the key homework done by the exclusive traders club over Saturday's ChartNexus TradeFEST. More impressive, this analysis is not done by me... it's done by the graduates... at traders club, they practise what they have learnt. Trainers are there to make sure the analysis is correct... Mastery comes from doing. As the lead trainer for the day, i added my experience in their analysis, especially on when to long or short and what works and what doesn't...HSI:Resistance at 15.9kSupport at 13.9kNow that Resistance at 15.9k is broken, we look to 17.3k to 17.6k to offer as resistance.RSI consistently above 50% tell us that the current uptrend is intact. Also there is a turn in MacD from 4r1g.If HSI has candlestick reversal patterns near the said resistance, and the same weakness can be observed from the other indices, then it will be a good chance to short. Otherwise we track the 20-day ma, if global indices broke that in unison, it is a good...
More About: Results

Properties in the spot light
2009-04-29 15:46:00
Yesterday I saw many properties dived following Nikkei's weak closing and i thought that was it, the first sign of bear in the market. However most of them managed to close near opening.... and today, alot of them appeared in my screening. This sector is surely worth a second look for a couple of reasons:1. The 20-day MA holds.2. There are heavy volume in today's trading accompanied with reversal patterns.It must however has follow through buying... otherwise, could be another trap.Infact many of the component stocks showed sign of resuming the uptrend. If this is so, the last low should hold as we progress to test the previous high. Next week is May already... and tomorrow is the last trading day. I have got only 2 options: either i go long and hope the bear give me 1 more week to enjoy profit to the upside... or i wait patiently and short at the first pull back or bearish sign in May. Even the swine flu going around doesn't affect as much as feared.Crapland: Rebound off 50%...
More About: Spot , Light , Properties

The week ahead
2009-04-26 16:09:00
It would have been easier if the week close lower as i anticipated, but it did not. Most indices close slightly lower leaving a lower shadow. Thus i have to re-examine my trading plans...STI: STI seems to be holding well near the 1840s to 1850s level. The bearish divergence may have been neutralised. Time to go long? I checked across the sectors, majam mostly are trading at base forming a support. I have seen many times how a base is formed and then we see the subsequent market rally fizzles out and caught many at the high. The only safe way is when i see sectors rotating again. What I am seeing now is stocks forming base.... the key word is forming, thus, until it is completed, then i feel safe to long. In a base, we have to watch volume too... it must be those of good base.. otherwise, may not be strong. Once i see good base, i shall kai seow here.HSI: Is this a double bottom? 15.8k is where the axel stands... If HSI breaks this level, it may trigger a double bottom bre...
More About: Week , Ahead

Friday to close lower?
2009-04-22 16:00:00
So sorry to have disappeared for days. I was busy preparing for the upcoming TraderFest for our graduates. Other than the usual stock pickings and analysis, we are going to reinforce those trading principles and concepts in this one day event. It should be quite a spectacular event... 100 participants with laptops! Hope we don't trip the whole suntec.. hahaThe last sector which showed strength has pulled back, the commodities. The rest of the stocks are resting near the support levels. Ta pi the gap down on Tuesday is still fresh on everyone's mine. The neutralisation of bearish divergence may have taken place by the sharp sell down and gap down. It is now of interest to watch if market will resume the uptrend. If it does, one of the sector should be leading it, and if so, my money will be on the next sector!On the other hand, we have been up for almost 6 weeks? time to pull back? The odds is thus stacked heavily on a lower closing on Friday . Hmm.. how to make full use o...
More About: Close , Lower

Dow struggles upwards
2009-04-19 15:19:00
Dow struggles to close positive again. I noticed that despite coming in with better than expected earnings report, market hasn't taken too kindly to it. It didn't rally as much as i hope to see. Still a ding dong at the recent high. Maybe the market isn't stupid afterall. It is plain obvious that the change in accounting rule in reporting may have helped the banks in their latest results. Notably, most of them reported they made money in their investment arm. I still got to watch how the market trades Morgan Stanley. The profit over there is not guarantee as yet since my position is still open. The hottest topic for now is the stress test results of the 19 biggest banks in US to be released in May... seems like they are thinking of the best way to release so that it doesn't shock the market like what Lehman and AIG did. I also notice how Obama is preparing the market to see GM or Chrysler go bankrupt by pre-determining the dateline where Obama will bankrupt them. Loo...

Meteor showers
2009-04-16 15:13:00
It sure looks like a key reversal day as we saw the market finished with alot of candlestick weakness. Property sector was especially under tremendous selling pressure today. Looking at my screening results, it was weakness across the board. Looks like the textbook signs are happening.... micro pennies rally would usually mean the end of the ah gu. All the bearish divergences look even more scary with these factors in mind: We are at the high. Today we closed with high volume and with candlestick weakness.HSI: Failed at the resistance today. I didn't short here because i do not have the profit to risk here. We all know that HSI is a wild horse.. hence for my risk apetite now, i can only continue to observe and grind the profits to make the next trade on HSI!Going forward it will be tricky... the last few weeks whenever we had weakness, almost all shortists were caught butt naked by the sudden return of buyers storming into the market. That's why i also no dare to anyhow shor...
More About: Showers

A race to break 200 MA
2009-04-14 15:05:00
Day to day i have been faithfully screening the market to sniff out what is going on... i saw big good volume rotating from sector to sector. Also i am seeing volume tapering off in alot of stocks while the price struggles higher... my friend put it very well.. it looks like many retailers kia buay bo... meaning scare not enough shares for them to buy! hahaBanks - This is where DBS flash the first warning sign... OCBC climbing on thin volume and technically it won't last. UOB's bearish divergence is so obvious that i think only the blind would miss it. Now my choice is, do i still believe in this rally and going for the next higher low to long? Or should i turn short and bet that, all this bullishness is rubbish? Actually my heart favour the latter. But better to wait for technical confirmation. Right now, the banking sector has been reporting good result over in US... WFC and GS both reported better than expected result. GS even want to return the TARP money... i think they ...
More About: Break , Race

Dow: Financials rotated back in favour
2009-04-12 16:06:00
Wells Fargo (WFC) better than expected profit for Q1 elevated the market. Couple that with less than expected weekly job loss, Dow managed to close higher than 8k. This is despite many expected Dow to close lower due to the long weekend. As you may know, i have been keeping a keen eye on financial stocks. It's not hard to read through my recordings to find out how often i have written down that it seems that financial stocks are holding well at support while Dow pulls back. This is evidence to me that a normal bull market sector rotation may be in play. The tricky part however is that we are seeing broadbased rally and the opportunity to go long on a good risk to reward is rare. It happens so fast and quick that if you miss a day, it doesn't make sense to chase. 4 sectors are all i am eyeing for good liquidity... financials, properties, offshores and commodities.On the last trading day, we saw how financial stocks pushed Dow higher. It may be too late to act on our local ...
More About: Back

Banks and Props leading the way down
2009-04-08 05:03:00
Day two of selling... this is something deviated from the last 4 weeks pattern. Then we pulled back shallow and then rallied ferociously. Banks and Properties counters showing bearish divergence and indeed they fallen. Though i had not taken a position, i keep a keen following on the technicals in this two sectors. It is of high interest for me to see that they have succummb to technical weakness. This is where i should be able to determine if market is going into an upward trend or downward trend depending on whether those support levels will hold.I have this temptation to start shorting stocks which were resisted at the 200-MA line. The first result from Alcoa disappointed market... thus those bullish talk last 4 weeks seems to be too early once again. US banks results reporting may be key to what the market is looking at... should they lose less money than expected, i fear the market may go crazy once again. As of now, i keep seeing some of these US banks/investment bank...
More About: Leading

Start believing in myself
2009-04-05 16:52:00
Last week's business treat offer me a great chance to step away from the busy Singapore and of course the market. With a string of losses, it's always a welcome to step outside of my shell and analyse from the outside. I happen to stumbled onto a very very good DVD in our apartment in KL... "Fly with me" - a documentary on his airness Air Jordan! Fwah... awe inspiring! After watching the DVD and a good swim.... i think i left the depressing thoughts about recent losses in the pool.. time to focus on the future!From Singapore...to KL then finally to the sunny island of Penang.. lots of time spent travelling and getting stuck in the jams, which gives me a lot of chances to reflect what have i done wrong. Most importantly, how to avoid it in future... i have enough of the boom and bust... alot of trading ideas came to my mind and i am gonna test them out. One of the interesting one would be Livermore Key. I tested it over the weekend... but doesn't seem to get it right.. may...
More About: Start

Day 3 of retracement
2009-04-01 15:27:00
I hate to say it... but things are looking really bullish... if you study the pull back with the trading volume, it is not difficult to notice that Monday's sell-off volume is on the low side... Tues and Wed we traded ups and downs.. but really... the volume isn't there. Perhaps the market is waiting for some news. Window dressing is over... i am disappointed that the sell off on Monday has no follow through. Market always fall faster than when it rises. Hence when there is no followthrough... nan dao... Now tomorrow is where the G20 will meet. Market anticipation is nothing productive will come out of it.... so far G whatever group meeting, nothing concrete comes out of it. However, if for the first time, they craft out convincing plans with action steps... this is where the market may celebrate.Right now, it seems we are consolidating sideways. I unwinded my HSI shorts with a mere 100 points profit... of course, what's new? The market closes 200 points lower.. This is r...

Shortists Hammered
2009-04-01 04:13:00
STI: Check this out man! A hammer at rising gap support... the volume is high high as well.. bad news to shortisit like me. Today confirmation candle?DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogs pot/ntBQ
More About: Hammered

Day 2 of pull back
2009-03-30 16:07:00
This is the plunge i had so much wanted to see since last week... it never came.. instead... it came right after i covered my shorts on STI. Truth be told, i do feel "cake sim" that i could have minimised the loss if i covered today. But is it possible? I did what i was most comfortable with last week... it truly looks like we are ready to burst through 1800 pts. I was also wrong about no catalyst that could plunge the stock market... out of no where JP Morgan and BAC said March was a tough month... despite just weeks ago said first two months of the year was good... crap? Add to that, Obama administration may ask the two of the automobile to go bankrupt.... the rescue fund is less than 200B now... not sure if they will ask for more... How to anticpate these news? But i will still be looking for the next higher low. The pullback today is pretty light in volume... it will be worse if the selldown is with heavy volume.CRCT: Stocks hit 200-day MA, Stochastic overbought... bearish dar...
More About: Back , Pull

Retracement or start of reversal?
2009-03-29 06:45:00
STI: Many many gaps to play... The one at 1664 is where it confluences with Fibo retracement... wah i wonder should i try a long there... majam the retracement also has meat to short...HSI: I longed HSI in a somersault action trading upon the breakout of 13.9k... the rally fizzles out around 14.1k. I read Dow's Thurs night rebound correctly and wanted to sell at the usual morning gapup. However, HSI not only did not gap up, it trades flatly around 14k to my disappointment. No wonder they say expect the unexpected! Currently there are two overhanging downtrend resistance line to be wary of. Once we clear that, 15.8k should be within grasp. How does HSI falls from here? Any catalyst? Yes. G20's statement will be a market mover. Not to forget, window dressing should be over by Tuesday. Any plunge in Apr has to be taken seriously. No doubt alot of people already compared MAr'08 recovery to this one, but we ought to be careful of the bank's reporting in Apr.HSI: This is th...
More About: Start

Breakouts akan datang
2009-03-26 15:54:00
I stuck to my plan today. When Nikkei and HSI broke the resistance which i had determined, i decided it is time to cut my losses on my STI shorts.. i was wrong because the market made no significant pull backs. I cannot simply stubbornly wait for the pull back... market doesn't listen to anyone... instead, i have to respect it and go along with the flow. I cut my STI at 1750 and somersaulted my HSI shorts at about 14,000 points. Is it painful to cut loss? I be lying if i tell you it is not painful and i cut like a robot. Truth be told, i have lost a huge bulk of my profits built thus far from the last plunge. I won't lie to you or try to boast that i am ok and lose little. If i cannot accept my mistake and learn from it, i will never improve. If it's because of my fear of shame that i try to hide, then i will never be successful. Could i have covered STI yesterday? I would say no. I seriously think it was coming down at the resistance level. Hence when we trade into w...

Nightmare
2009-03-25 15:27:00
It is fast becoming a nightmare where the market keeps heading higher and higher.... every resistances drawn; cuts through butter like a hot knife. The type of retracement that i am wary off came true... shallow retracement.. I thought shorting STI is safe due to the slow movement... but over the last two weeks, the volatility is...mind blowing! This is the type of movement most powerful... pull back during intra day or making bery shallow retracement and hug the upper BB tight tight.... not a single resistance holds for long. Like i have mentioned last week, the worst case scenario is being squeezed to 7.8k in Dow and 13.8k in HSI... i am staring at these two levels now... I must say, although i am prepared to see these levels... nevertheless it is still a daunting task to contain my fear. I said then that this is my last chance that the market should turn down... if we burst through these levels... two things i can do... preserve whatever profits i have left in 2009 and run roa...
More About: Nightmare

At a time like this...
2009-03-24 09:56:00
http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/ntBQ
More About: Time