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Day 3 of retracement
2009-04-01 15:27:00
I hate to say it... but things are looking really bullish... if you study the pull back with the trading volume, it is not difficult to notice that Monday's sell-off volume is on the low side... Tues and Wed we traded ups and downs.. but really... the volume isn't there. Perhaps the market is waiting for some news. Window dressing is over... i am disappointed that the sell off on Monday has no follow through. Market always fall faster than when it rises. Hence when there is no followthrough... nan dao... Now tomorrow is where the G20 will meet. Market anticipation is nothing productive will come out of it.... so far G whatever group meeting, nothing concrete comes out of it. However, if for the first time, they craft out convincing plans with action steps... this is where the market may celebrate.Right now, it seems we are consolidating sideways. I unwinded my HSI shorts with a mere 100 points profit... of course, what's new? The market closes 200 points lower.. This is r...

Shortists Hammered
2009-04-01 04:13:00
STI: Check this out man! A hammer at rising gap support... the volume is high high as well.. bad news to shortisit like me. Today confirmation candle?DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogs pot/ntBQ
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Day 2 of pull back
2009-03-30 16:07:00
This is the plunge i had so much wanted to see since last week... it never came.. instead... it came right after i covered my shorts on STI. Truth be told, i do feel "cake sim" that i could have minimised the loss if i covered today. But is it possible? I did what i was most comfortable with last week... it truly looks like we are ready to burst through 1800 pts. I was also wrong about no catalyst that could plunge the stock market... out of no where JP Morgan and BAC said March was a tough month... despite just weeks ago said first two months of the year was good... crap? Add to that, Obama administration may ask the two of the automobile to go bankrupt.... the rescue fund is less than 200B now... not sure if they will ask for more... How to anticpate these news? But i will still be looking for the next higher low. The pullback today is pretty light in volume... it will be worse if the selldown is with heavy volume.CRCT: Stocks hit 200-day MA, Stochastic overbought... bearish dar...
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Retracement or start of reversal?
2009-03-29 06:45:00
STI: Many many gaps to play... The one at 1664 is where it confluences with Fibo retracement... wah i wonder should i try a long there... majam the retracement also has meat to short...HSI: I longed HSI in a somersault action trading upon the breakout of 13.9k... the rally fizzles out around 14.1k. I read Dow's Thurs night rebound correctly and wanted to sell at the usual morning gapup. However, HSI not only did not gap up, it trades flatly around 14k to my disappointment. No wonder they say expect the unexpected! Currently there are two overhanging downtrend resistance line to be wary of. Once we clear that, 15.8k should be within grasp. How does HSI falls from here? Any catalyst? Yes. G20's statement will be a market mover. Not to forget, window dressing should be over by Tuesday. Any plunge in Apr has to be taken seriously. No doubt alot of people already compared MAr'08 recovery to this one, but we ought to be careful of the bank's reporting in Apr.HSI: This is th...
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Breakouts akan datang
2009-03-26 15:54:00
I stuck to my plan today. When Nikkei and HSI broke the resistance which i had determined, i decided it is time to cut my losses on my STI shorts.. i was wrong because the market made no significant pull backs. I cannot simply stubbornly wait for the pull back... market doesn't listen to anyone... instead, i have to respect it and go along with the flow. I cut my STI at 1750 and somersaulted my HSI shorts at about 14,000 points. Is it painful to cut loss? I be lying if i tell you it is not painful and i cut like a robot. Truth be told, i have lost a huge bulk of my profits built thus far from the last plunge. I won't lie to you or try to boast that i am ok and lose little. If i cannot accept my mistake and learn from it, i will never improve. If it's because of my fear of shame that i try to hide, then i will never be successful. Could i have covered STI yesterday? I would say no. I seriously think it was coming down at the resistance level. Hence when we trade into w...

Nightmare
2009-03-25 15:27:00
It is fast becoming a nightmare where the market keeps heading higher and higher.... every resistances drawn; cuts through butter like a hot knife. The type of retracement that i am wary off came true... shallow retracement.. I thought shorting STI is safe due to the slow movement... but over the last two weeks, the volatility is...mind blowing! This is the type of movement most powerful... pull back during intra day or making bery shallow retracement and hug the upper BB tight tight.... not a single resistance holds for long. Like i have mentioned last week, the worst case scenario is being squeezed to 7.8k in Dow and 13.8k in HSI... i am staring at these two levels now... I must say, although i am prepared to see these levels... nevertheless it is still a daunting task to contain my fear. I said then that this is my last chance that the market should turn down... if we burst through these levels... two things i can do... preserve whatever profits i have left in 2009 and run roa...
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At a time like this...
2009-03-24 09:56:00
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Sticking to the plan
2009-03-23 15:28:00
Alot of questions went through my mind after market closed. Why did i miss the rally? Why am i still holding to my STI shorts? Why i shorted so low? Why I bothered to hedge and not somersaulted to long position last week? My actions last week is pretty retarded on the hindsight... reading my past week's blog, i realise i sensed trouble with me short positions as early as mid-week. The only explanation i have is complacency. I have this tendency to throw money away after a good run. I had been profitable since Nov'08... March'09 looks set to break the trend. Though i may lament the loss in $$$.... but more importantly i know i need to get on my feet, dust myself and look ahead. My most immediate task is not to allow my profits for 2009 to be wiped out.My hedge on OCBC worked nicely. However HSI's rally tipped the scale off balanced and i am nett in the red currently with 3 positions. STI shorted at 1560, HSI shorted at 12,900 and OCBC long at 4.53 . As always, here I...
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My trading plan
2009-03-22 14:46:00
STI: What is wrong with STI? While i manage to short HSI correctly, i am feeling the heat here being squeezed. In short, my current nett position is "eat pig, pay dog". Win Hsi pay STI... pui ah! With Dow and HSI closed lower for the week, how on earth did STI draws such strength on a Friday. I think at most i will be squeezed to 1630s and it should turn... meanwhile, if it happens, i have longed OCBC. U must be blur... why on earth i go long a stock despite having shorted STI? Let me explain: My opinion is still for STI to fall. But i can't sit idle and watch myself being squeezed. Hence i long OCBC. Scenario A: If STI really goes to 1630, OCBC will cover the paper loss of my shorts from current level to 1630.... not all but most of it... If STI turns down from there, i will cover my OCBC and turn another short on STI and bet that we fall like humpty dumpty from there... and this is how i can cheat death. It beats staring at the STI cheonging up and suffering from tota...
More About: Trading , Plan

Dow to test 7800?
2009-03-19 13:14:00
I had never expected my sti short to be worse off than hsi. Hsi is struggling near 13k and my shorts still look safe for now. But i can't say the same to sti. The strength of bank sector seems to be proping up sti as i had to plan my exit strategy. i began to doubt my opinion of an intra week pull back. More so of the reversal. It really looks like we are gonna head north somemore. No doubt we have been up several days and market may pull back, there is no stopping of the market to extend this rally till those major resistances. I feel really uneasy abt my short positions because it seems like i am wrong and is too early.I painted two scenarios early in the week, one of which is that we should see an intra-week pull back... this didn't happen. Thus, the next scenario of the market making shallow pull backs and edge higher is happening. This may mean last week could be the key reversal. As of now, there is no catalyst for the market to plunge but on the contary, plenty of bull...
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Retracement or Reversal?
2009-03-18 13:19:00
I shorted the market because i want to bet on an intra-week pull back in the markets. Pull back is imminent in my opinion because of the strong surge last week. Now the question is, whether this is the reversal to continue the downtrend or a normal healthy retracement. I won't know for sure as yet. But if my money is on the turn down, if it's the reversal, then i would have shorted at the high and a very good position. If it is just a natural retracement, then i will cover back with small profits or near breakeven then i can somersault to long the market.HSI: A very nice bearish candle right at 50-dma. However there was no confirmation. I shorted at 12,900 level and am now being squeeze about 200 points... a very uncomfortable feeling. I wouldn't cut loss here because i am along the primary trend and it is at resistance. Dow overnight closing rallied 172 points overnight and despite that, HSI only humbly climb 200 points and i think this is weak. Furthermore with each p...

To hoot or not to hoot.
2009-03-15 08:22:00
You wouldn't believe how empowering i felt when STI rallied more than 5% on Friday. The timing of my STI long couldn't been better. It means my anticipations of the market is right. I didn't bother how much i made on the STI long or how damn right i was about covering my shorts, rather i am already thinking how much to hoot on my next trade. This is because if i am right about the market, money will follows. However i still lack the ability to trade with conviction. Otherwise i would have whacked and made more money. Yet at the same time, i know what i am doing is right. Because i considered risk and the size i put on is what i can stomach. This is my dilema for the past 2 years. Whenever my opinion is right about the market direction, i didn't make a windfall. Those were the time i wish i could have HTT. Remember i always wrote i never had such luck. Those times when i hooted, market always squeezed me. When i no hoot, the market proves me right. That's why i of...

My opinion is market to close higher on Friday
2009-03-12 16:01:00
I had to cut my loss in Dow last night. No good... 7.2k would be a better short. I was too early and tempted by greed. Each time when i build up good profits, i tend to take risk... this is something i must stop doing! Imagine i shorted at 6.8k and have to cover 6.9k thereabts. 100 points loss... ouch! Must be NOL.... keep tugging at my Achilles thus affecting my thinking process. Even with Wednesday's closing, i am still not too sure where the market may be heading.I painted two scenarios:a. It was an intra-week rebound. If so, i would expect market to keep falling and the volume to be great. But it is not so. Thursday we didn't close too badly and some of the stocks remained firm. Hence Scenario A may be wrong.b. This is just a rebound week and next week we will turn down. If it is a rebound week, by Friday we should close white candle on the weekly chart. But next week? How would i know if next week gonna close lower or higher? This i draw conclusion that we are ...
More About: Market , Opinion , Close , Higher

Rebound lai liao!
2009-03-10 14:49:00
The story of the day must be the fallen NOL. I just can't believe i miss it.... gosh! I may play act...pretend to be in great pain in office, but that's to create atmosphere nia... actually nothing la... miss lor it's ok. Like i said, it was the best thing to do that day. Just like today, i square off ST-Eng for kopi lui. I getting uneasy with this trade because we are due for a rebound and yet most of the stocks mai loke. Hence instead of seeing ST-Eng short becomes a loss, i rather take the kopi moiney. As for UOL, i am still holding. I am still looking for a reason to sell which i have't seen any yet. The intra week rebound i am waiting for may have happened.... Dow is up more than 200 points right now... As usual, those who are late in shorting will be BBQ'ed.... this is why i never liked to short on breakout, the pull back is almost guaranteed. Then can we long/short the next breakout since i said it's almost guaranteed it will pull back? Guess what? The momen...

Waiting for the rebound
2009-03-09 14:42:00
HSI closed 11,400s.... NOL at lower end of $1.... Remember i closed both last week... If i look at HSI, i have no qualms about missing the extra 600 points. This is because Ah Seng and me are long time friend and i know after breaking the support level, usually there will be a retest as a resistance. I used to find CS reversals around here, especially if there is a gap. Like i said last night, i rather wait for highs to short rather than short after support broke. Let's see if i am right by mid-week and how high the rebound may go. But as for NOL.... really is #@$@#%#@$%#$ wahahahaFinally STI broke the 52-week low and the same may go for Nikkei and HSI. At this juncture, we may head lower and then a rebound may come. This level is closely watched and may trigger massive selling.... maybe even the most ardent F.A investor may throw in the towel. Technically when such a support breaks, it threatens more downside but the rebound can be equally strong. That's why i opt to o...
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Review of market directions
2009-03-08 15:50:00
An amazing week had passed. Amazing because Asia is still hanging above the 52-week low while Dow is in a very nice downtrend. Each day market expected Dow to rebound and it does the opposite. I am beginning to wonder if Asia is going to break those lows anytime soon? I covered most of my positions leaving only UOL & ST-ENG short. You may have read... The moment i covered NOL... it really went down big time! Talk about timing! haha it never fails to happen ya? I am sure you have similar experience to share. For me, i try my best to ignore, i did what i felt was right at that moment because most of my profit targets are met and i see no reason in waiting for a rebound to chomp off substantial profits. Now with the profits built thus far, I can look forward to the next move.Nikkei: Last Friday failed to crash through 7k... My short position in Nikkei is covered when my buy limit order was triggered in New York time. The 7k support just refused to bulk. Now on the daily c...
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The moment is here...
2009-03-02 15:37:00
Shorting all the way from Japan to Hongkong and finally Singapore... how can i not be elated on a day like this. The pay back time i was pondering about happened. Nothing has changed. I applied what had happened in the past and it worked. Of course the risk factor need to be worked out. Actually i wasn't really that excited about the good profits this round. I am still far off from my target for the year. Also, it is only March... 9 months to go. There is this lingering fear in me that i may be caught by a rebound tomorrow and struggling to decide if i should take profits first. I had to be clear. This move seems to have just started. We broke away from the trading pattern last week where we remained resilient despite Dow's heavy losses. What happened today was, market simply gave way, rebounds were weak and most importantly we closed lower. The volume of this sell down is HEAVY. Also, did you guys realise the last round of bailout doesn't seem to be working with many...
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No guarantee shortist will make money on Monday
2009-03-01 14:33:00
HSI: Ah Seng is smacked right between 13,200 and 12,700. The flattening of the 20 dma suggest that this may be a sideway market. It is getting very uneasy when the market doesn't fall from here. Shortists may be squeezed. But one thing i don't understand is, Nikkei and Dow has broken multi year lows.... why is HSI still hanging on? JiaBao shu shu got more good news? NOL: The moment everyone is waiting for may be here. I am still holding on to my NOL. Only if 1.30 is traded then i would consider to cut. With Ma as resistance, Stochastics at overbought. The question most of us will be asking is, how low will NOL go? keke Frankly speaking, i hope we can see $1. Coz' then we can all celebrate!Nikkei's rebound really spoilt my Friday. Remember i shorted it on Thursday because i feel the bad numbers may be coming in on US side and anticipated the week to close weaker. I had wished a follow through in selling on Friday to close the week firmly down. On Thursday night, i co...
More About: Money , Make Money , Make , Monday

Facing a rebound
2009-02-25 16:10:00
Although i anticipated the rebound, but to be able to hold firm to my shorts is emotionally testing. To say i am not the least affected by the rebound would be a lie. It's really how i manage the fear inside; the fear of seeing my profit goes up in smoke. First of all, i must be clear, which level will mean this is not just a bear rebound. Which level will be a confirmation that my view is correct? This is how one can manage his emotion in trading. Otherwise it will be easy to be swung out of position. However we are all humans afterall, mana buay sim tia to see the profit shaven off. Like Livermore said, "Why worry about the few bids of profits as we didn't even own it in the first place" He further ensures that reaction in a trend is healthy and normal.The buy signals from my strategies didn't trigger the entry price. This despite Dow was up 250 points. Perhaps the market isn't too keen to be bullish this time round. Most of the stocks finished near their lows. Wi...
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Reflections
2009-02-23 15:17:00
NOL: Stuck in a side-way range. IT means i shouldn't be using ADX or MacD in my analysis. Stochastics suggest a rebound is on the way. As i am short on NOL, i am waiting for the purple moving average to confirm the bearishness. Based on the last two candle stick formation, it seems like NOL is ready to pop higher. Should I long? No! Up yes, but how much is the up-side? Aren't i safer to remain short as we now how market can plunge more than it climbs?HSI: The red spot on the chart is the likelyhood where the rebound may end. It is the downtrend resistance coupled with the neckline of the double top formation. The rally today caught my surprise because it came after Dow closed weak. HSI has not broken the last low about 12,400 points which disappoints me. HSI may rebound within the range still. RSI looks to be supported and this is bad news to shortist. Coz' if HSI is to rebound, plenty of room for RSI to move higher. However, this intra-week rebound may just be shortl...
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Anticipating a weak closing
2009-02-19 15:19:00
*stretch the hands* woah... long time no blog.. as some of you might have already known, i was away to ChartNexus KL office for a few days. Though my body was in KL, my soul was at home and my mind was on the stock market. keke On Tuesday when the market tanks, i wasn't ard my desk to build up more shorts. Rather on Wednesday where there was a slight rebound, i covered my Cosco and shorted one more HSI. My rationale was; I still have my NOL and UOL shorts, if i take up additional short positions, then i am actually increasing my risk. Also, i see Singapore market no up. It seems like recently it is fast becoming a useless market where global markets rebound, we only farted, but when global markets sell off, we go down as hiong as the worst. Hence i rather stick with my local stocks shorts. As for HSI, last week when the rebound actually reversed near a support turned resistance. Hence my thought is, if it really wants to cheong higher, that was the best time to take out the...

Patience paid off
2009-02-12 15:29:00
My anticipations of a sell off came true. Now i am seeing Dow broke the major support. Of course the closing on Dow is more important. Hence it is better not to count the chickens before they are hatched. Such support which so many people are eyeing once gives way, i think more downside to come.It was really tough emotionally when the market showed resiliency. Many a times when the market rebounds, i had the temptations to cut my shorts and turn long. Especially seeing the profits dwindled. From my experience, i knew exactly how to deal with such emotional swings. I think this is my edge. Other than T.A which can be learnt easily, emotion attachments are often the toughest to manage. One has to go through the cycle of losing to winning before one finally can practise that effortlessly. It takes more than raw guts to stick to the trading plan or one's own market opinion. To speak the truth, i didn't use any wonderful system or secret methods... it is just T.A + money mgmt...
More About: Paid , Patience

A Resilient Market
2009-02-10 14:56:00
We are now being swing in a very tiny range... breakout may be akan datang. And the triggering news? Of course is the bail out plan... week ago i mentioned this is what the market may be waiting.. and while it is waiting, neither the support nor resistance was broken. Plenty of whipsaws around.To be honest, as the days go by, I am getting more and more restless. I feel like adding my shorts on the way up. At the same time i am also wary of what could happen in China. Jiabao shushu may disclose their stimulus plan anytime. The market is also sucking in all the bad news and selling very well. But in a bear market i am still cautious. When it breaks down, it can go down twice as fast as it crawls up. So meanwhile i will just wait for the stupid bailout plan details to be out. It's better than losing money unneccessarily. Livermore said, there is a time to long, there is a time to short. There is also a time to stand aside. One of the 3 times he went bankrupt was in the afte...
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Some things doesn't change
2009-02-09 15:00:00
By now most of us would have already heard the news on Capitaland issuing rights. haha I just find the whole episode amusing.. Didn't they replied recently that they have no idea of the high trading volume and crushed any talk of "issuing rights"? What happened today? wahahaha IT's not the first time and definitely not the last time this had happened. I am so used to this by now. Well i don't blame anyone for this, infact without these things happening in the stock market, how to use technical analysis? SPC: While most of the stocks already hit 100dma and turned down, this is a laggard. It has not met resistance at 100DMA and looked destined to fall. Conflicting signal here with bollinger breakout vs 100dma as resistance. This happens so often in analysis. So which one do we listen to? We should really use risk/reward to decide if we should trade at current level. Today it closed with a bearish engulfing. It needs no confirmation. Commodities can buy? I have attached t...
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May the market falls
2009-02-05 14:55:00
Although CNY has just passed barely a week.... without any recent trades, i felt that time was crawling by. It seems like i haven't taken a position for a long time. Gambler instincts! haha Today i added another short position in the market. This time round, i decided to go with my gut feel and shorted NOL. No doubt NOL is in a tight range, unless it breakout to the upside which i don't feel it's possible given a slow down in global trade. Hence to me, i feel downside is more realistic. The rally in the market presented me an opportunity to bet NOL by shorting nearer to the resistance. I shorted at 1.23. At worse, maybe i can cover back at 1.10s...HSI's intra-day rally caught my eye... when index was trading at 13.3k by 11am, i contemplated at running away. However i reminded myself to focus on the primary trend and visualise my worse case scenario. At worse i lose back some of my profits in 2009. Too hum ji will only result in tan bo jiak.The whole week is full of u...
More About: Market , Falls

Follow the gut feel?
2009-02-04 11:57:00
After the comments by JiaBao shu shu, China may taps its reserves to invest in their motherland. Woah... even China needs to tap reserves... this bear is really fierce. I hope the great depression II will not happen in my life time... i don't want to see it. On the other hand, if it does happen, gosh, it paves way for great opportunities post depression. If i'm still young by then, maybe it is my chance to tua huat? keke Anyway, the market boosted by Dow's overnight positive closing and closed higher. Although the index is down, individual stocks are up mostly. Volume again is pretty average. Just abit more thoughts on volume, i think the avg for now we can take 1b. We shouldn't be expecting 2b or more as many retailers has turned "forced" investors.Do you believe in gut feel? You can read about it here. You will be surprise what i wrote one year ago is similar to current market! Who says history doesn't repeat itself? With many stocks near support, it is very tem...
More About: Feel

Headless chicken
2009-02-03 16:11:00
Looking at the stock market... really looks like a headless chicken, doesn't seem going down, at the same time no confidence to head higher. I am tempted to go long but had to pinch myself to remember the primary trend. How about short? No again because support ain't broken. Then what about short at resistance? Now I saw two types of resistances in most stocks, one of immediate high, the other one would be of the major resistance line.Unlike previous month, the market was moving according to my anticipation through sector rotation. This is the easiest way i can read the direction of the market. Currently the sectors were not moving much and there was no clear leading sector as yet. Hence the wait continues. i just need the next move to come and then i shall hoot tua tua. My shifu said in trading, if you are on a roll, don't let loose. Dare dare win more. The last time market is in such a range got to be May to Jun 2008. Then i threw caution to the wind and went long at su...
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Markets at MTL levels again
2009-02-02 15:28:00
I had expected the market to stay afloat and not heading anywhere or even slightly lower. But the selling was pretty strong today and caught me by surprise. Not that i am complaining too much because i have a HSI short. But what irks me is when i am not in tune with market. Once I am anticipating the market correctly, then only would i hoot tua tua. Otherwise i will continue to grind the profits.Monday started weaker than expected and now Nikkei is firmly below 8k again and Dow too broke 8k... FTSE fighting hard to stay afloat 4k and STI.... 1700 points looks hard to defend. However, unless a big negative news hit the street, otherwise i don't see any big sell off coming. Obviously while the US econs data were bad, i can see that the market isn't reacting to that. Rather it is waiting for positive news flow about the contents of the bailout plan. Eureka! Market is looking for a positive news to rally. Since it mai lo, surely it means it is going to ki?The support-turn-r...
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Focus is on bailout plan
2009-02-01 16:10:00
With the bailout plan delayed for another week, it leaves the market in anticipation. I rather they get on with it and let the plan out. Market dislike uncertainty and i should expect the support and resistance to hold if there are no major newsflow. Otherwise, if we look at the bigger picture, we are in this trading range. The only consolation is that this trading range is huge and it is possible to profit from both long and short. What i fear most is an illiquid market with tight range. However this is also the first sign of market bottom. Read any trading books, you will know market bottom is usually not volatile and slow. I have squared off most of my positions after CNY and indeed it is heart wrenching to see Cosco and Capitaland closed lower after i covered my shorts. Although i am already in this business for so long, i am human afterall. I do feel Cake sim with bad positions too. Frustration and greed do manifest in me. All these years, it has been a constant batt...
More About: Focus , Plan , Bailout

?????
2009-01-28 13:28:00
My anticipation of sub 7k didn't materialise and i watch in disappointment during the holidays as New York stayed afloat 8k and Barclay's confident statement boosted FTSE. These lead to a big run up above 8k by Nikkei. So much so i had no interest in playing blackjack as my mind was pre-occupied on my post CNY trades. Alas today i took my profits off Capitaland(SGX) and Cosco(SGX). Cut my losses on TOPGLOV (KLSE) and accidentally turned long because i went long more than what i had shorted. Since it's in ringgit and a relatively small position to test poems platform it doesn't worry me so long it doesn't breakdown hard tomorrow. The other bad trade, AAPL (Nasdaq) continues to cause me diarrhoea. What a poisonous fruit. Hearsay snow white went into a coma after eating the same apple..... AAPL was cut moments ago.. if suay, it may hit US$100 before a retracement. Also, since it was a bad mistake, i rather cut. How stupid can it be to be riding losses and cut profits fast?...