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Bears Gored by the Bulls!
2008-03-24 15:51:00
This picture was taken during my honeymoon in Berns.... never had the chance to post it up .... finally today's actions justify this post! hahahaThe day began with a bang. This is expected because DJ had a strong finishing last week. I was looking for a whitecandle finishing in the local bourse but we have none. The confirming candle was in DJ's chart. As the day worn on, it is not difficult to detect the persistent buying strength. Alas, we closed strongly! Notably the banks! What gains! Honestly, i am very tempted to initiate a short position. But i knew this is not the way to trade a market. The market moves in a non-random way and i already have a set of tools to decipher it. Hence I should be patience and wait for the signal to short instead of trading because I "feel" or i "think". Now this is certainly suicidal and we shall call this trading by emotions.As most of you already knew, I was contributing technical analysis article to SmartInvestor magazine in 2007. From April'...
More About: Bears , Bulls

Wishing for a candlestick reversal pattern
2008-03-19 17:01:00
Tomorrow is the last chance to take up position! My eyes will be the closing candle on STI's weekly chart. Remember on Sunday night i posted, this week's closing is more important than the intra-week swing? Well indeed the market looks supported. Most of the stocks look damn oversold and we should head higher. But it also doesn't stop the market from falling further before the rebound takes place. Given that today we were not able to close higher than opening means that the market are fearful of last week's repeat where market tanked after the big rally. This is actually good because it means there is little confidence left. Market will not anyhow rally like a mad bull. We all should know by now, a mad rally doesn't last. Rather, we might have very good and defined technical levels to trade.Let us see if the inverted hammer on index charts will come with candlestick confirmation.Results from tonight's XPertTrader Screening:Asia Env: Surprisingly strong in a weak marketRange Tr...
More About: Pattern , Wishing

Singtel in a trading range
2008-03-19 07:11:00
Singtel in a ding dong ding dong ding dong...DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Trading , Range

Cosco T-rebound on the cards?
2008-03-18 14:44:00
2 more trading days to close the weekly candle and i will be looking at possible Candlestick reversal pattern to give us the rebound that the market sorely missed!Lehman and goldman restore confidence in the financial sector after the bear scare. With Ben looks set to cut the interest rate, short-term rebound may be on the cards. Screened with XPertTrader, Cosco Corp has a chance to rebound after touching pessimism levels. DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Cards

A peek into the weekly charts
2008-03-16 15:20:00
Bear Stearns gave market a poisonous shot. This investment firm was the first to admit the subprime issues they were facing and last week, they scored another first....They seek rescue plan. My food nearly spilled out from my mouth when Dow dropped over 300 points from up 50.(I was watching US market live that night). Monday's opening is expected to be weak. However it is how the week finish that will be interesting as I see Dow and STI at critical support. I'm sure i am not the only one who is watching this level. Hence it makes it very interesting going forward. If we break this level, you can be sure of the selling strength! Obviously if this level is protected by "invisible hands", it may be a good time to load up to play the rebound? I still favours rectangle trading as described last week.STI: Index closed slightly below the long term uptrend line. This is the lower end of the range, and with Friday's closing, we had a homing pigeon pattern. This is a bullish reversal patte...
More About: Charts , Weekly , Peek

Technical Rebound or Reversal?
2008-03-11 15:38:00
Overnight closing of Dow in negative once again dragged down the morning session. But cool enough, market rallied in the afternoon session and close amazingly in the green suggesting something could be cooking in Dow tonight. True enough, Dow is now up 200 points plus. Honestly speaking, i too was tempted to long some stocks as i could see many candlestick reversal patterns around. Notably in some of the China shares i'm tracking. However i held back. I prefered not to guess a reversal or bottom and just let the price tells me where is it heading. A break above 20 day moving average will be a good sign. Infact there are still a couple of stocks trading above 20dma and some are even on an uptrend. I secretly load up on one last week and despite the plunge, it was unscathed! keke, if all goes well, i will share this stock at my upcoming CTA Graduates Gathering . It's been more than 1 year since I became the chief trainer and to date, over 1000 graduated from my course. The...
More About: Technical

Formation failures
2008-03-10 04:24:00
The warnings are written all over the walls. When i was flipping through charts, plenty of weak charts are warning us to stay clear. Last week, my eyes were on the development of the chart formations on the index charts. The result? Bullish formations failed and the one bearish on KLCI and Nikkei broke down successfully. This coincide with the shocking election results over the weekend. Smart money run away ahead? It's easy to say let us short the market. The timing of positioning our shorts is also important since the CFD facility doesn't offer rollover and we only have 30 days to be right abt our shorts to maximise the gains. A trader is like a boxer. We must fight with both hands. If you do not learn the art of shorting, you are like a boxer who fights with only one hand. Shorting isn't really that difficult. If you are interested, do join one of the ChartNexus seminar and ask question. At our seminars, they are not previews. Our trainers share their experience ...

Bad news ignored
2008-03-02 04:10:00
The market has been ignoring all the bad news and absorbing them very well with the index keep heading higher. It baffled me and i was so tempted to turn long because as a rule of thumb, if the market doesn't go down with bad news, it means it will turn up. But looking at the market, i notice many rallies had no decent follow through and hence held back. I told myself, if market really is turning up, the next sell-off will be well absorbed and we move higher. The price actions thus far has not been that of a typical bull market. The profits from Chartered becomes very precious because i had to cut loss on Allgreen when it threatens to break 1.30... so it became eat pig pay dog. The most boring part is.... there was a sell signal on 20th Feb in the market (4g1r on STI) and according to the system, 21st Feb i should look to short sell. But due to my busy work schedule i had to give it a miss. Nevermind though... market is always there! By the way, my method is FREELY availabl...
More About: News , Bad News

Chart pattern coming up!
2008-02-25 15:39:00
Based on the STI chart, i observed a symmetrical triangle in the making. Now we are pending the breakout either to the upside or downside. 20 MA is supporting the price currently and has just turned. This is classic T.A versus indicator. keke A favourite question asked in my T.A course. Allow me to explain how do we make use of the above information to trade. Step 1: We form an opinion base on the Triangle first. Where is the target price. Since it's a symmetrical triangle, is there something going on that the market is waiting. Here i conclude that earning season is underway and after the reporting season, price will break the triangleStep 2: Base on the 20 DMA, since it just turned, probably i will wait for another retest at higher level before i even wants to use it as a support to track the price.Step 3: Decision, i will hang on to my Allgreen short position until we breakout to the upside decisively.I apologise for the lack of sharing in recent weeks as work is really full to ...
More About: Pattern , Chart

STI update
2008-02-18 21:34:00
STI: After the strong surge, market took a one day break. Last night was a holiday in US, hence today's trading will be lead by Nikkei & HSI. There will be consumer index and housing data from US this week and this can move the market. Given that we have already moved higher, we must watchout for any potential sell-off. Any pull back is best not to break the higher low order.Tat Hong: The big sell-off after various downgrades. I could have max my profit at 3.14 high but nope! keke The stupid first day sell off meant i can only take my profit at 2.86 which i decided after it refuse to close higher at closing time. The sell off took me by surprise because i had intended to avg up Tat Hong on normal retracement. Now i can look elsewhere. hahaDISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Update

Happy Valentines Day!
2008-02-13 03:14:00
First of all, Happy New Year! We tanked before and after CNY. I unfortunately cut my LianBeng to have a peaceful dinner and look at where is Lian Beng now? haha Well i'm used to it! Losses are part of the game and it is also a strategic decision. I purposely sold so that the brokerage firm owe me money over the CNY which Chinese believed once you owe somebody money over the new year, you will owe him lots for the rest of the year. kekeAt this stage of the market, i am still looking around for solid buys and which sector to look at. Agriculture seems to be getting volatile and we are seeing broadbased buying. I especially like the intra-day selling that was absorbed well yesterday. Buffet and the retail sales figure was what the market needed and we are now looking at potential "W" patterns all over the place. I will be keeping a lookout for those stocks that breakout successfully from this pattern.STI update: Currently we are trading at the resistance gap and it was clos...
More About: Valentines Day , Valentines

Chinese New Year Rally!
2008-02-04 16:04:00
What timing! The rally was inline with the upcoming Chinese New Year ! :D Now that we have 1.5 days before we close for CNY holidays, i am considering a hedge for my longs.I shorted Chartered last Friday right before closing. It was a powerful rally in late afternoon and we close the week stronger. It has always been my plan to hold longs and go short one at least 1 downtrending stock. This is because I am still not sure we are out of the woods. I expect another test to the downside after the holidays hence as soon as I see weakness in my long positions, i will take my profit and add to my short positions. The rationale being, if market is to go down from here, there are 2 possibilities.A) We achieve a higher low and selling will be well absorbed and I can square off my shorts and turn long the market.B) We go down to at least test the low at 2745 level. If market was to head that way, i forsee it to happen in less than 5 trading sessions. Any hesistation is a sign of bulls.2 levels ...
More About: Rally , Chinese New Year

Market drifts lower
2008-01-31 12:21:00
We did not break 3000 support emphatically but surely the drift is also a cause for concern. With many market participants smart enough to stay clear of the market due to the volatile market, there was no good follow through buying in the market. Ever since the 3 days of rally last week, we have been drifting lower and lower since the week began. My anticipation of an up week seems remote. Ah Ben did me a favour by cutting the interest rate by 50 basis points and yet the market did not rally. The wisemen said, "If a good news doesn't spark off a rally, then nothing possibly will. " I'm long on 2 stocks and I have to be more cautious. My options include throwing out my line before the weekend and enjoy Chinese New Year.3168 could be the high of this rebound and we could be heading towards 2746. Break that, we shall see more downside. If that level holds and we rebound, we could be forming a "W" bottom. This should be what many would anticipate.Psychologically, I'm feeling bored by...
More About: Market , Lower

Expect the Unexpected
2008-01-29 15:57:00
Truth be told, Monday was very very ugly. We thought US will follow suit and continue the onslaught from last Friday..... but to many people's surprise! It didn't! Instead, it's a whopping +170s gain! Yes, expect the unexpected! The no follow through selling today could mark the end of the retracement and it will be nice to be looking for market to push to the next high. People who have been following me in waiting for the higher low, this is not the higher low. This is just a retracement on the way up. The low may be created say next month? The kind of low we want is of sustained movement, just like when market rebound, we want a sustained upwards movement. US side tonight reported friendly CPI numbers which may pave the way for Ben to cut rate. Also, durable goods order numbers was surprisingly better than expected. This means the economy is not that bad afterall. Another confident shot to the Feds. The world awaits the statement from FOMC. But i'm not going to do...
More About: Expect

I have sinned; I had LianBeng for lunch
2008-01-26 03:17:00
After seeing a strong and firm morning session, i skipped lunch and began to screen for stocks to analyse, formulating scenarios in my mind and came out with a few conditions. If those conditions are met, I shall try long. Firstly, Nikkei closed the week with a hammer on the weekly chart. HSI after the massive sell down on Thursday did not have follow through. If it was really that bad, HSI would not have rallied on a Friday where traditionally no traders will carry overnight positions. Nikkei, HSI & STI all three indices has something in common. Hammer candlestick on the weekly chart. This is one component of a reversal pattern and there is a chance next week, we will close higher. Hence for next week, any weakness could be a good chance to long. Especially those agri & commodities stocks.When the market opened after lunch, I saw LianBeng's chart and salivates. One of the rare stock still trading above the 200MA. Price actions wise suggest there is a hungry Pacman at work....
More About: Lunch

Hold your breath!
2008-01-25 03:45:00
The last 2 candlestick shows lots of market emotions and it came with high volume which confirms the panic. We had a hammer which is followed by an inverted hammer. I see resistance somewhere 3200s level. Incentives to move to that level include Fed's meeting which is coming up, we are some distance to the resistance level. Watching how the market behave at that level is important. We should not see heavy dumping and that after the healthy retracement, we see a higher low which to me marks the possibility of the start of an uptrend. After which we must observe the previous high and hopefully takes that out. I don't rule out a good uptrend which may last for a few months given that US Govt and policy makers are stepping in to help the market. But alas, it will only be temporary.Currently after being shaken out of my Cosco, i am feeling frustrated. The sudden swing down of HSI caught my attention yesterday and I decided to take my profits and avoid risk. About my macd histo...
More About: Breath , Hold

Rebound arh!
2008-01-23 14:59:00
If everything goes well, we could have seen the short-term bottom at Tuesday Low. I longed cosco taking that low as my support. My view is, that should be the low and we are heading for a rebound. This rebound should take us to STI 3100s thereabts and I will look out and becareful for dumping again. Conditions that favour this rebound include Fed's rate cut and more cuts to come when they meet? Also the traditional CNY rally. Earnings so far is disappointing. Apple gave a weak outlook for Q2 and Motorolla has a bad quater. But! Motorolla hasn't been doing well all along... hence i will be looking for strong results from the competitors to dispel worries that consumers are not spending. Anyway, Motorolla so far hasn't been producing cutting edge products.Today I cut my loss on Cosco warrants which i took yesterday at closing. I fully deserved to lose this 2 bids trade. Though the loss is small, i am very tempted to just leave it aside because the position is small. Bu...

Capitulation Time?
2008-01-22 16:56:00
I refer to the high volume done today and the strong finishing actions in the futures market. We stands a good chance for a rebound in coming days. With the heavy volume marked, we saw how market recovered. I took small cosco call warrants with 2 minutes to closing when i saw FTSE coming back strongly and simsci gives a late late show. I was deciding between getting a HSI CW or an index stock. To take advantage of a rebound, I must go for index stock or index as second liners may not move. The logic is clear, when index rebounds, those stocks in the basket will move. Period.Ah Ben cuts rate tonight. Was it a coincidence that FTSE & Simsci rebounds late in our trading time? Alas, market has never changed, the clues are there, I just need to be observant. As this is the second day of a 5% decline, a whopping 10% off the index!! Anymore, i suspect the circuit breaker will be on! Hence whole day, i have been looking out for clues of a reversal day, formulating scenarios i...
More About: Time

"I can feel it in my old bones"
2008-01-21 13:50:00
This was the exact words my shifu told me since last week. He could feel the market will tua lao sai. And if you think today is the worse, veterans like my shifu who gone through 1987 will give you a proper definition of a crash. Crash would mean there are no bidders, market open with a huge gap down leaving many investors dumb struck. For example, XYZ stock closed $12 in previous session and today opened at $6. This is the definition of a crash. We still have not seen the worse of the bear market.I scouted through forums and talked to many, just because the market showed resilient, many thought it was the right time to bottom fish. I for one traded like this in the past and guess what? We are fighting against the trend. Since market is heading down, there are only 2 things you should be doing, either you completely stand aside or you short the market with CFD or put warrants. There are proper ways to identify a market bottom, so far i have not seen it. Alexander Elder in his book m...
More About: Bones , Feel It , Feel

STI update
2008-01-18 06:33:00
Blind no more! Finally i am able to see STI! Rebound looks to be on the cards. However, i will still be looking to short at rebounds, hence my sight is casted at 3200s thereabts. Another trading idea is to latch on to the long side at the first reaction after the rebound. I am still searching high and low for bullish divergence but ain't seeing any. HSI 24,200s stood like a rock, tested on 2 days and despite selling pressure from DJ's horror show.... this speak alot for the support.Counters to choose form should be the ones with the most volatile movements instead of slow moving stocks as i want to take full advantage of a quick rebound. Otherwise when the rebound finish, the slow stock could have moved only a little.DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Update

S&P500 Just starting to crack
2008-01-16 16:49:00
Scenario 1: Ah Ben cuts rate by alot because inflation data came in weaker than expected. Banks result are expected to be bad and there is some slowdown in the economy. Then we see S&P 500 rebound to the attractive level to attempt a short.Scenario 2: We breakout out of the D-Triangle cleanly and target to downside 13,000AVB from NYSE is the kind of stock i like... obvious downtrend! I shall initiate an outright put option on this baby because i couldn't find a good risk/reward strategy.I am waiting patiently for a sustained rebound to my resistance levels and shall try shorts on CFD and also index. To me, the lilelyhood of a rebound is high now and it doesn't make sense for me to risk going short at such levels. For this strategy, i will be using my 4g1r system.DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Crack

Where will the diarrhoea stop?
2008-01-16 04:19:00
Final resting place for HSI maybe the gap support and the 200EMA. Global indices has broken down their 200EMA hence i see the odds of HSI to hold off the selling around here as remote. Any rebound, i think i will lookout for bullish divergence. It's a pity i didn't take full advantage of my correct opinion of HSI breakout to the downside where i took my put warrants profit yesterday. Nevertheless it was good profit. Wait for another chance! :P DJ looks set to break the uptrend support line. I will be looking out for hammer on this line or any bullish reversal patterns should this line holds. Otherwise target base on D-Triangle is 11,800 thereabts.DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Stop

Wanna profit from the rebound?
2008-01-14 16:36:00
The bearish breakout finally happened. Many descending triangles gave way. It was a pretty ugly sight. Along the way, when the descending triangles were forming, we had many decent rebounds. I got vested at one such rebound last month but only had to cut as there was no follow through buying. Follow through buying is a sign of bull market marked with tame selling. What I saw was gains very cheaply given back to the market by the brutal selling, volatile market actions...etc.. all these are not signs of bull market. As of now, i still do not see signs of a bottom as yet. STI is now officially trading below the 200DMA. This is where in wall street they regard it as a bearish sign. All you need to do is to check 1997 and year 2000... compare the relationship between 200dma and STI, you will appreciate what is happening now. Going forward, we may have some rebound. I for one a not interested to profit from this. For me, i want to establish short positions strategically. If the...
More About: Profit

Market cried wolf
2008-01-10 16:09:00
Yesterday afternoon the spectacular rebound drew in loads of investors thinking a rebound is happening right before their eyes. Dow Jones close overnight with decent gains. However once again there was no follow through. I too was tempted to load up some stocks before closing. However I hold my horses prefering to wait to either short at strategic position in HSI or STI or go long when i detect strong buying interest. Should DJ rebound to my trendline resistance, i will attempt a small short. If proven right, show hand and double up. If i'm wrong, I gladly take my loss.. if i'm right that the market is going down until CNY, then tua tua huat liao. :PCheer up folks! Although I may not know you personally, but i believe we share a certain degree of affinity since you stumbled to my block. Let me guess, if you are a newbie, you should be stuck in some positions. Nothing to be ashame of, most of us start with losing. Trading is a game where failure is accepted! : ) It all ...
More About: Market , Wolf

DJ broken critical support level
2008-01-09 04:59:00
DJ looks to have breakout of the Descending triangle pattern after last night's sell off. As it is still some way from the apex of the triangle and indicators oversold, i fancy a rebound soon (as shown in green). If this rebound hit the downtrend resistance line, shorting looks viable and good risk/reward.DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Support , Broken , Critical

Swung around like a monkey
2008-01-08 14:07:00
I went long HSI just before HSI close yesterday. It closed with a hammer with a late flourish. DJ on the hourly chart has a bullish divergence and given the fact that it has gone down in successive sessions, it increases the probability of a T-rebound. Alas, it only manages a small gain in a volatile session. My position swung from profit to loss and then rebound into profit only to lose ground again before closing. I opt to cut my position versus hoping it will swing into profit again. The key word here is "hope". I am wrong, it will be a loser game to hang on to a position and hope. Trading index is different from stocks. We have to be discipline and hoping will lead to tremendous losses.Looking at the whole market, the gains are given back very easily. No follow through in buying and the brutal selling. Looking at the bigger picture, all the lower highs is ringing alarm bell. Other than short sell signals using my 4g1r system, i did not receive any good buy signals fo...
More About: Monkey

Rebound on the cards?
2008-01-07 02:56:00
Tonight, we must hold the Novemeber low. Otherwise.... it will really be ugly! The brutal sell off was one with a lot of volume.. 2 ways we can look at it, final capitulation or more shit to come. By Japanese Candlestick analysis, i would love to see a long tail tonight. It will be good to turn long if the long tail is found. Watch Asia markets for clues near closing. We all remember what happened in Aug'07, the markets miraclously rebounded. DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Cards

Then US$35......Now US$100
2008-01-03 15:42:00
With US$100 per barrel staring at us and manufacturing contraction in the US helped by credit crunch and subprime loan woes..... how can market not go down? Each time it tested the downside, the rebound is equally fierce drawing cautiousness even for shortists. However it was noted that every rebound achieved a lower high. This phenomenon is also observed on most of the charts in the market. While major support looks well defended on 2 occassions but base on classical analysis, descending triangles are every where. To neutralise this triangle, we need to break the downtrend resistance line or trades out of the triangle.I went short HSI when 27k gave way today and my view is 26k to be tested. I found no incentive for the market to head higher and surely panic and fear is in the air as the market took a sudden dive yesterday and it continued today. Since we are down for almost 3 months, i revisited the theory behind how a market bottom differentiates from a market top. Market ...
More About: Then

HSI Update
2008-01-03 04:05:00
DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Update

US Manufacturers taking the hit
2008-01-02 17:47:00
This is not the kind of start many wanted. The late afternoon slump left many stone cold. The curse of subprime problems spreading accross economy injected fears in to the US market. A quick check on the chart shows DJ broken down a symmetrical triangle pattern. 13,000 must hold to look pretty, otherwise no eyes see. Currently DJ is trading -164... With Ah Ben's meeting minutes reaching the market at 2pm their time, it will be nice to see a hammer! : )Many stocks look like turning down from a lower high... a sign of downtrend stock. Hence I will still be careful abt trading stocks and look for index warrants for a change.DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Manufacturers , Taking