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Merry Christmas!
2007-12-23 16:19:00
Gosh! Time really flies and this is the 3rd Christmas greeting coming from GrowMoney Author. : ) Journey thus far has been very fulfilling and i have so much fond memories but as per usual, i will leave the reflection on my trading career on the last day of the year. haha24th will see our minimum bid size changed. I wonder how this will affect the index movement... Friday was a good good day... regionally most index charts finished with a hammer pattern. It will be wonderful if we can close a white candle on the weekly for the coming week. After the clean clean flush on Monday, we never looked back and the rebound was completed by Friday. S shares roamed the top volume charts. This reminded me of the QDII fund...some say it will start in Jan...My game plan going forward is still to track HSI, plus my system has picked up a stock few stocks.GrowMoney QuickPicksIndoAgriNobleI will be looking out for a quiet 24th and market to trade flat.. that to me will be an excellent chance t...
More About: Merry Christmas , Merry

STI dips under 200MA
2007-12-17 16:20:00
"The bulls have their fun above the 200Ma and the bears have theirs under it" This is a popular notion at Wall Street. STI today officially trades under the 200MA. Going forward, it may retest the 200MA line, and if we are unable to trade and close above it. Better have a CFD account on hand and let us start to use 4G1R system to profit from the downside. As mentioned, this trend trading system picked up short sell signals last Wednesday night infrom of 180 participants at SGX... not exactly a beautiful sight but at least it reminded us that we can profit from the downside too. If you are interested, you may want to join me and the rest of the ChartNexus team at Capital Tower to find out what exactly happened on 12th Dec 2007... what 4G1R are we talking about... full details are at www.chartnexus.com/eventsI went long HSI on Friday. HSI closed on my trendline support and I reckoned it was a pretty opportunity. Yeah, you can imagine my disgust when HSI tanks 1000 points by lu...

Major support levels tested again
2007-12-13 15:41:00
At the seminar last night, we screened the market for signals.... 49 vs 1..... that is 49 sell signals vs 1 buy signal... so i was not surprised when market didn't head up today... but certainly i didn't expect it to be so bad!!! Nikkei started the rout during our lunch time. So when we came back from lunch, it was point of no return.It was no surprise when the market came crashing down today. Last 2 weeks saw limited buy signals and what we got were sell signals. Most major indices were ripe for a pull back. Ironically, this sharp pull back maybe better than dying a slow death. It will flush out plenty of stale holders giving us fresh buyers when the bullish time returns. I still don't like the loose price actions in most stocks. A bull market doesn't react this way. Furthermore, it was very obvious that most of the stocks encountered heavy dumping on the way up. ChinaFish was one such example, i was tempted to buy at 1.83, but i didn't find the volume convincing and my opinio...
More About: Support , Major , Tested

SPH near 2 year high
2007-12-10 14:55:00
Another bank fell under the subprime gong tao... This time round Temasek got vested. I saw Dr Tony Tan sitting at the press conference...it got me excited for a while because I thought SPH was the one whom injected the funds...keke needless to say as a die hard fan of SPH, it will be good news... but alas.. not to be. Speaking of SPH, it is now trading near it's 2 year high!!! $5 ? Akan datang. If Livermore is alive, he will be looking at this for sure. I shall look for CWs in anticipation keke... this is what I call pivotal point. Break, long, gostan we can go short. Definitely worth investigation. Using XPertTrader to screen, there are still no buy signals and at least 48 sell signals. This is where market condition takes precedence. We are now waiting for FOMC meeting and that leaves little incentive for market to move up. Tomorrow will offer great opportunity! I be watching Nikkei and HSI's closing to get into position. It has shown in the past, market seems to k...
More About: High , Year

Pull backs
2007-12-09 15:51:00
China central bank raises bank reserve ratio by 1 percentage point - UPDATEDecember 08, 2007: 04:39 AM ESTNow I know why the sudden dip in HSI on Friday. As usual, price always move before news. This is so classic. On the chart, HSI failed right at resistance. After the holidays I am looking for trades. This should be my own greed and gambling addiction. I feel so uncomfortable not having any vested interest in the market. I looked at stocks, but to me it seems like not a good time to get vested in stocks as of now. I screened and my system yielded no stocks. Remembering what Jesse Livermore said, "There is a time to buy, a time to sell and also a time to stand aside." By focussing on HSI, I want to be able to form an opinion on it's direction to trade. HSI should be supported at 27,500 thereabts. Even Dow Jones look rip for a pull back first. Same for STI. Recalling what I read about astrology analysis, 22nd Dec has a major turn date. It will be useful to track the movement up...
More About: Pull

Mixed day
2007-12-06 16:18:00
I cut my synear and lost brokerage today when it reverses all the way to my buy price with volume more than I would like to see. The big gap up in the morning didn't sustain and it fell back with heavy selling. This stock is bought in tantem to the rotational interest i detected for quickie and hence it is off the low and far from support. I feel safer to get out and relook. Especially I am still waiting for market to show me the direction then only would i take sensible risk.Using my sentiment scan, actually we had a mixed day rather than a bad day despite some heavy profit taking going on as i can see there are stocks which hold their ground and their gains. However since STI has been up the last few sessions, maybe time is ripe for a pull back. I will observe how is the selling on the pull back... this should differentiate between healthy retracement versus bear reversalFor HSI, my eyes will be at the 29,600 to 29,200 levels, it is crucial to see how it trades there.At the econo...
More About: Mixed

Convincing rally alas
2007-12-05 15:42:00
I was told today's rally was the most convincing with volume and strong buying over the last 2 weeks. With 2 trading days left in the week, I will be observing the following:a) No heavy dumping at the topb) We see follow through buyingc) Normal retracement due to profit takingI picked up Synear in a nick of time when the China shares were in play. Nikkei's after lunch U-turn made lunch hour very exciting and when SSE was up 2%, our market rallied after lunch. This despite a report saying funds are pulling out from local bourse in the morning and we reacted negatively to it. However we soon recovered by lunch time.Looking at my portfolio, i had kept Jiutian & Chinawheel before I head for holidays. My strategy for these 2 stocks is to holdDISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Rally

Strategies on Banking sector
2007-12-04 17:05:00
MAS said profitability of local banks will be affected by subprime issues. My opinion is, if market is to go anywhere, banks should show the way? If they are resilient and head upwards, i think it will be safe to tikam on the upside slowly at first to reduce risk and add on when proven right. Otherwise if they fail at support turns resistance, put warrants will be handy. Here are few strategies on warrants i have devised.1. Buy very OTM PW with at least 60 days to expiry - will lose little if stock trades upwards. The trick is, when a stock is moving down, it will be faster than going up.2. Buy slightly OTM PW with at least 60 days to expiry - will lose time value if underlying trades sideway.3. Buy OTM PW with less than 30 days to expiry - will lose premium if underlying goes upNotice I focus on the risk first instead of thinking abt the rewards? Alexander Elder said, "If you take care of your losses, your profits will take care of themselves"I uploaded a cartoon made for my ...
More About: Strategies , Banking

Firstly...identify market direction
2007-12-03 15:41:00
In all my seminars, courses and even the newspaper interview done this year, i always stressed the need to first determine the market direction. The NUMBER 1 reason for most who lost money in the stock market is we don't know where the market is heading. This was why i failed in my early days. Think about it, if the market direction is heading up, shouldn't majority of the shares be heading up? If the market direction is coming down, didn't most of the stocks keep coming down? Hence I believe inorder to avoid unneccessary losses in the market, one should first form an opinion on the general market direction instead of focussing which stock to trade.After standing aside the market for 30 days exactly to prepare for my wedding cum honeymoon, i lost the feel for market. This is the first time I have taken such a long leave from trading ever since I started persuing this life skills years ago. It was tough in the beginning as I fell sick due to trading withdrawal syndrome and this wa...
More About: Market , Dire , Direction , Rect

执子之手，与子偕老
2007-11-06 15:48:00
With my wedding and honey moon coming up, it's time to take a break from the market. I wish everyone tua tua huat and may the market leave some money for me when I am back in December.... Huat arh! kekeP.S I have taken my profit off YZJ inorder to cut down on my exposure. I shall sit through with the rest of the stocks that I owned unless the market really forces me to run clean clean. DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Abnormal Market Behaviour
2007-11-01 16:07:00
I do not like the way how market is behaving lately. Firstly, the recovery from the August low was too fast. Secondly, I observed that the price swing has been very wide and loose on the way up. This could be signs that the smart money are getting out. At the top, there shouldn't be alot of selling (volume) because there are limited over hang shareholders. The only explanation for the high volume is, smart money liquidating. Thirdly, the incredible run at HSI. Murphy law applies in the market too.Inorder to cut down risk, i sold HongXin when the selling persist. I had wanted to ride this on the way up but the price actions has been too loose and i didn't like the wild swing. If everything is fine, i will look to buy back again.I derive 2 opinions about the market.1) Market trades in a range and we see major support levels hold.2) Market breaks the major support levels and we crash south creating a lower low in price actions.GrowMoney QuickpicksSPC (Long)Ezra (Long)UOB (Short)SMB (...
More About: Behaviour , Normal , Abnormal

Focus on market not on paper gains/losses
2007-10-29 16:31:00
A quick tip about controlling your psychology in trading is never to focus on the paper profits/losses. By now, this golden rule has been internalised. 4 weeks ago, I began to have doubts about my opinion on China shares when my growth fund is having measley returns. The paper profits did not bother me. I was focussed on the general movement of china Shares and the market as a whole. Even as of now, with Hongxin rocketing off the base, I am still feeling indifferent than when I did not make any money. Alexander Elder said, "Take care of your losses and your profits will take care of themselves". What this guru meant was to cut your losses small and ride your profits long. When Genting, Adv Hldg, Ausgrp are not moving the way I anticipated, I was quick to take whatever nett profit I had from them because technically, I was either wrong or early in buying them. When I am right in my trade, I will not be eager to take profit off the table so soon prefering to ride them as far ...
More About: Market , Paper , Focus , Losses

Red Army tries again
2007-10-25 16:44:00
I sold my ausgrp at 1.81 (bought 1.81 4 weeks ago). During the 4 weeks, Ausgrp went as high as 1.92 yet i didn't sell for profit. It also went as low as 1.74. My trading system is trend following and I tend to sit on a trend. It became obvious to me that i am early in the trade. Also the recent movement of the market is, good news and bad news doesn't move the market. In 2005, we plunge after trading sideways. In 2006, we traded sideways and then surprise everyone in November by going on a strong bull run that leads us to 3k. I respect risk. Although I still have a portfolio of stocks, i must agree readily that we are behaving like in a market top. The inevitable can happen. But, we will not know when. The only thing we can do is to manage our risk. When it happens, just remember to run away. The plunge from market top can take a few months to happen, so there is still upside to make from. This is why i will not just sell everything and wait for the crash to happen. ...
More About: Army , Trie

Is it really that bad?
2007-10-22 16:10:00
Yes, the index does closed very ugly and that accross the board, bloodshed. However using my screening, i searched and found that despite the big sell off, we didn't go down further. Although this does not guarantee we don't go down further from here but I am able to produce 2 opinions:a) in recent weeks, there wasn't any sucker rally and that mostly shares did not close up higher and i could feel a lack of participation from the retail side. Hence there will not be alot of panic selling.b) DJ is near support at 13,400... it will be nice to see this level holding. Furthermore, alot of stocks are trading at their major support levels. If all these levels start to crack, my CFD account is ready.I just concluded my course over the weekend and remembered something valuable which I have forgotten. As I introduced alot of strategies and techniques in the course, by the second day, I could usually see the "information overload" syndrome in the room. One participant asked, "So man...
More About: Ally

Treacherous Market
2007-10-18 16:20:00
Broad market showed weakness after lunch and many finishes off their highs. Now this trading pattern is very different from how we traded from 2006 through to 2007. Infact the last 3 weeks, market seems to be hitting invisible wall but yet unable to plunge. Screening through the market, there are still some individual stocks who showed strength. A quick check on STI saw that the RSI and 20SMA is supported and just yesterday we rebounded from that level. However there is a slight negative divergence on the weekly chart. So long daily chart holds, this divergence should be able to negate. Although market was down today... 2 of my stocks rallied. So long my stocks stayed up, market can swing all it wants! :D hahaSomething about JiutTian, they are going to issue the warrants with strike price at 80cts. With current market price trading at low 60s, this warrant will only have time value with almost no premium since it's so far out of the money. I personally think the risk/reward fa...
More About: Market

Reading multiple time frame
2007-10-17 16:22:00
Let me start tonight's blog by sharing one of my methodology of Technical Analysis: Analysing multiple time frame.SeeHS on the weekly chart, a classic rising wedge has formed. Why classic? Because the volume is declining just like a textbook rising wedge. My own interpretation of RSI current shows that the weekly price chart is under selling pressure. If price close near the lows on the weekly chart, my CFD is ready... keke Today I was abit more hardworking and walked over to finally get the account ready after months of talking about it. What I don't like is the cost of finance which stands at 4%...The daily chart of SeeHS paints a totally different picture. Oscillators showing oversold, bullish engulfing pattern is formed based on last trading day and of course, I was attracted to this stock because of my daily XPertTrader screening rule, MacDHistogram signal. Looks like coming days we may see higher price for SeeHS.No follow through in selling! Hurray! For a moment, I thought m...
More About: Reading , Time , Frame

Red Army Perished?
2007-10-16 15:52:00
Massive selling! Looks like I may be wrong about china plays as they were sold down in tantem today. Contra players and weak holders should already be shaken out last two weeks. Today's selling may be the final washout. I am observing we are near oversold levels and yet at the same time many of the China stocks are still seeing strength, trading at overbought levels. Key support levels are still holding. I think I had been reminded many time through my XPertTrader screening, there are hardly any quality stocks that I see leading the rally. Anyway, with 19th Oct the dreaded anniversary drawing near, I will be careful incase the market really celebrate it by selling down. Also, 17th Oct is a bradley turn date. Now that we have been sold down, perhaps we turn up instead of down? :P Tonight must check with Zhuge Liang who is master for astrology analysis.All is not lost for Xiao Hong. Trading at a level which is attractive to pick up. The above chart shows how resistance may be...
More About: Army

QDII Fun no more
2007-10-15 16:02:00
My opinion of a short term pause in China plays was short lived as we goes into third week of wilderness. They were trading in a tight range without going higher or significantly lower. Their counterparts in HK and Shanghai were so much better. My opinion remains for now that the play will rotate back into China plays unless PRC government make some unfriendly comments about QDII fund. I was never convinced that China's interest rate hike will affect the price. This is because it is widely anticipated and should have been priced in. The current frenzy in Hang Seng and China reminded one and all about how Nikkei rallied to 30k in the 80s and they too were in self denial when warned about the bubble. They said, "This time its different". From a high of 30k, it then went as low as 8k after the bubble burst. The same is said of China this time round. I heard many people said the 4 dreaded words...."This time its different" Olympics, China market cannot margin, cannot contra....

Right Time, Right Place
2007-10-07 14:50:00
Like I always advocate in my course, keep things simple. The truth is, the simplest Technical Analysis will work. In the example above, when Hiap Seng was being sold down, it caught everyone by surprise. It was the only oil gas company that was being sold when we see a broad market rally. Armed with just an oscillator (RSI) and classical T.A, I found a "growmoney line". This is nothing more than a trendline which i drew. keke In 2006, I give all time high a name, blueline...so here we go, another new name! :D haha My perceived support was about 80 cts, and I found 200 SMA trading nearby, fibonacci 61.8% was near too and last of all, my growmoney line. Even a gap support is nearby. I drew a conclusion that this must be a very strong support. There is no guarantee that I will be right that this stock will hold at my perceived support. Fear about it going down after buying? What if it goes up and I don't have a position? All I need to do is to put in a position size that is subject...
More About: Time , Place

Fair Game?
2007-10-04 17:06:00
EI-Nets has a great trading day where it's volume and price shoots through the roof. SGX queried as per SOP and the company replied in a so standard fashion that is all too common....they are not aware what could have caused this. Remember this stock, according to past experience, weeks later it will be in the open what caused this unusual trading activity. Stock Market a fair game? I doubt so. kekeIt was good to see late buying. Although late buying is typically good, it could also be due to shorts covering. Today I picked up one more stock, Hiap Seng. Interestingly it is trading near the 200 DMA while the rest of the oil & gas play are still firm. My view is fundamentally is sound, technically it's ugly. I remember their contracts are up to the brim. Hence I am trading my opinion on this stock. If i'm wrong, I will bite the bullet.DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Game , Fair

Portfolio makeover
2007-10-03 14:22:00
A perfect chance for me to load up more red chips as the market took a pause today. I think it is largely affected by the -700 closing on HSI. HSI have a big gap near 27,200 for support. It could test this. Over the last 2 days, I cashed out of Genting and Adv Hldg to take up ChinaHong and ChinaWheel. Holding on to Genting and Adv Hldg to me was opportunity cost and of course i be badly exposed to market risk should i not reduce some positions before adding. Anyway, pulling the trigger is easy for me because I already had the plan in mind on Monday. When the time comes, i only have to act. The price actions of my china plays must be firm or more upside by Friday.Do not hesistate to join our seminar at SGX Auditorium where I will be sharing on how to trade effectively with Fibonacci. What's more, look out for ChartNexus special promotion! Register at http://www.chartnexus.com/events/details. php?eid=1133GrowMoney Growth FundHLHJasperLC DevAusgrpYangZhiJiangJiutianChinaHongChin aWheel...
More About: Portfolio , Makeover

Hail the Red Army !
2007-10-01 14:03:00
China funds may flow into Singapore! I really hope our china shares go crazy just like what happens in Hang Seng. The last time the market interest is so strong on China shares is probably in 2006. The other best time was in 2004-2005 season, fwah!! That was when 1 china stock cheong, the rest will follow ! It makes making money looks easy. However this time round, the gains are more spectacular. By the way, the money is not in yet... hahaha Imagine on 15th October, China Govt say, NO! Money will not go out... we shall see how all the gaps will be covered! keke Well... just be more careful and prudent. I would love to see intra week weakness..that will be the greatest chance to load up again. Today I picked up Jiutian during intra day pull back. I only have 1 China stock in my portfolio and it is simply not good enough! Hence I searched high and low, flipped through many charts... before I selected my trade. A number of observations that i made, on 21st Sept 2007, my trading syste...
More About: Army

????????
2007-09-26 15:53:00
Just as the title of tonight article suggest, patience was rewarded sweetly. After being frustrated by the market for no less than 3 weeks. The rotational interest went to the mid caps and also oil & gas sector. This round, I managed my emotions very well. Instead of acting out my emotions in the market, I fired away on the keyboard on Monday night. Managing one's emotions is very important in trading. I never forget, other than T.A, money mgmt and psychology are the pieces to the jig saw puzzle. I would have made the same mistake of the yester years should i have sold just because the stock doesn't move. All the expensive lessons of the past has served me well.I went on a shopping spree today and bought Genting alongside YangZhiJiang. With 5 stocks in my portfolio, i won't be in a hurry to add more. Instead i'll be looking to harvest. Genting's resilience caught my eyes and YangZhiJiang had a chart formation breakout known as inverse H & S.My Malaysia counterpart Mr Ju...
More About: ?????? , ???????? , ???????

Frustrations
2007-09-24 17:16:00
Over the last few weeks, i revisited one of the most torturing emotion known as frustrations. This feeling stems from being able to get the market direction right and yet the portfolio didn't generate any profits. The worst thing to do when emotion gets the better of me is to trade on impulse. The great Livermore said, when you are trading, it's important to have a stable emotional state and inner peace is very important. The wrong thing to do is to cut my positions just because they frustrate me. This is because from the charts, the critical supports have not give way. Nothing on the T.A side i had done wrong. I conclude that i was too early in the sectors i bought. Was it too early or am I proven wrong by the market? Also, to miss the banks and properties rally, i have only myself to blame. Yes, no one else, not the market, not the chng kay but myself. Because i was slow to react. I DID NOT pull trigger. I was retarded! If anything, the way i saw all the bad FA compan...
More About: Stration

Good Finishing
2007-09-23 17:22:00
Last Friday's closing is a show of strength as we see broadbased buying. Lian Beng closed significantly higher and many of the construction plays came back roaring. I too observed buying interest across the board. Construction and oil & gas plays has been quiet for nearly 2 weeks after they came out of the rut strongest. Banks and Properties followed after rate cut. Then we saw baltic sensitive stocks STX and NOL rock the charts. Mid and small caps went sleeping. One by one, punters favourite came alive and often times it was shortlived. Banjoo, Jade...C2O, Atlantac... It made me very tempted to hunt for the next probable old flame and punt waiting for chng kay to push up.I saw many stocks start to turn in my trading system. Good sign. I'm using a trend system and hence if i continue to see those signals coming up and those stocks keep going higher, it only means the market is trending higher. If I see those stocks with signals stop short in a trading range, i will know market...
More About: Finish , Nish

A glimpse on indices
2007-09-21 03:49:00
DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Dice , Glimpse

Market refuses to head lower
2007-09-18 14:44:00
I decided to cut my Federal last Friday after a failed breakout. Today I cut my HSIPW after HSI did not follow through yesterday's selling. After monitoring the price actions for the whole day, it seems to me that it doesn't want to go down. At every dip, there is plenty of buyers. As I am buying the warrants, i cannot forget it is a wasting asset due to the time decay factor. If I had shorted the futures, then I can perfects trade my short position higher, or do a scale up selling.My plan was to lift either my stocks or puts according to where the market is likely to head, when europe market opened steady, and hsi close firm, i had to lift my puts in favour of a positive reaction by the market tomorrow.Another reason for lifting my HSIPW is that, I don't want to risk the upside due to a possible interest rate cut. Although I do not think cutting the interest rate can solve the problem, but who am i to go against the market? Rather than holding on to the put warrants and stand ag...
More About: Market , Head , Lower

No eyes see
2007-09-14 08:25:00
With my stocks not going up, and HSI going against my trade strongly..... I stepped into Federal upon breakout and once again, breakout no follow through....
More About: Eyes

Under-estimating China Money
2007-09-13 16:01:00
I had under-estimated the power of China money as Hang Seng finished new high once again. Seems like the word sell or profit-taking is not in the chinese dictionary. My short position is out of the money. It will be foolish of me to counter the trend. I will look to trade up my short position ahead of Fed's meeting. Also if the market refuse to head lower, I will be looking to add more stocks. AdvHldg looks to be holding well with volume drying up. LC Dev, i don't like the way it failed at the breakout and once again there is no follow up buying in the sector. Infact this syndrome can be observed accross the market. Some glaring forgotten stocks like unionmet, sunvic, had an incredible run. Also, it seems like the market tone is firming up. I will be watching the next leg down since we are not able to maximise the gap up over the last 2 days. Gaps are very powerful as it marks th strong conviction of the market participants. If 2 successive gap ups unable to propel mar...
More About: Money

Construction flexes muscle
2007-09-12 15:55:00
After taking a week's break, constuctions rumble again and hitting top volume. I picked up LC Dev after the latter seem to have broke out with volume and price. However it seem to have hit resistance 0.480. I just have to try because i had been tracking this stock for weeks and been waiting to pull trigger. When the signal came, i just have to stick to my discipline. I also added a batch of HSI PW. This is for my structural short position if the market tanks down form here as this is a very attractive level to hold a short. With 2 stocks in my portfolio for now, i'm hedged. If the market proves to be resilient, i shall cut my put warrants and long more. If I am correct on the downside, i shall remove my long positions and look to short more. I believe market has arrived to what we call a pivot point.Screening the market with XPertTrader, I saw quite a number stocks traded higher with high volume. It seems to me market is rotating through the sectors. Why else would sunvic and unio...
More About: Construction , Muscle