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Under-estimating China Money
2007-09-13 16:01:00
I had under-estimated the power of China money as Hang Seng finished new high once again. Seems like the word sell or profit-taking is not in the chinese dictionary. My short position is out of the money. It will be foolish of me to counter the trend. I will look to trade up my short position ahead of Fed's meeting. Also if the market refuse to head lower, I will be looking to add more stocks. AdvHldg looks to be holding well with volume drying up. LC Dev, i don't like the way it failed at the breakout and once again there is no follow up buying in the sector. Infact this syndrome can be observed accross the market. Some glaring forgotten stocks like unionmet, sunvic, had an incredible run. Also, it seems like the market tone is firming up. I will be watching the next leg down since we are not able to maximise the gap up over the last 2 days. Gaps are very powerful as it marks th strong conviction of the market participants. If 2 successive gap ups unable to propel mar...
More About: Money

Construction flexes muscle
2007-09-12 15:55:00
After taking a week's break, constuctions rumble again and hitting top volume. I picked up LC Dev after the latter seem to have broke out with volume and price. However it seem to have hit resistance 0.480. I just have to try because i had been tracking this stock for weeks and been waiting to pull trigger. When the signal came, i just have to stick to my discipline. I also added a batch of HSI PW. This is for my structural short position if the market tanks down form here as this is a very attractive level to hold a short. With 2 stocks in my portfolio for now, i'm hedged. If the market proves to be resilient, i shall cut my put warrants and long more. If I am correct on the downside, i shall remove my long positions and look to short more. I believe market has arrived to what we call a pivot point.Screening the market with XPertTrader, I saw quite a number stocks traded higher with high volume. It seems to me market is rotating through the sectors. Why else would sunvic and unio...
More About: Construction , Muscle

Bracing for the onslaught
2007-09-09 16:53:00
Looking at the chart of STI, if we close lower than 3400s, it will be ugly. Technically it means we have some more downside. Many would expect STI to test the last low 2960. Personally, if fibo 38.2% holds at 3300, effectively we still have higher low. And should STI turns up from there, good sign. Anyhow, there is currently no catalyst for STI to be bullish. I favour working out a nice chart base and then we challenge 3700 by November.All along, i favour another leg down to ascertain the selling pressure and hence I didn't actively load up stocks to avoid risk but only 1 which is Adv Hldg. Tomorrow I will scrutinise the tape closely. I did for a moment feel like a fool watching the market rebound strongly and yet I did not profit much. Greed. Technically, it is risky to load up and hence staying out is my best option. Had I sucummb to greed, tonight i would be a very worried man as i will be badly exposed to the possible downside facing us tomorrow.Ai zai, recently, i notice STI r...
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STI rumbles!
2007-09-06 17:59:00
Analysing Adv Hldg in details as I have vested interest. RSI is near resistance, Possible resistance level is 0.520 and target price of flag pole should be conservatively 0.570Adv Hlding went higher after breakout the previous day and it has been going up for 2 days straight. Hence I ought to be prudent and will be looking to sell upon weakness for a successful swing trade. What makes this win sweeter is that it is screened using XPertTrader. I am going to upload this rule into our XPertTrader library so that subscribers can enjoy using the rule. Maybe next week at the workshop, i will demonstrate.For those interested to join ChartNexus Technical Analysis Course, you will be given 3 months free of XPertTrader subscriptions worth $105.XPertTrader Screening for Short term Price pattern:ArmstrongTiongwoonSunningTechSMB UnitedOcculusYongnamLC DevLum changI'm still observing for breakouts in the stocks above. Tomorrow is Friday and it will be a fantastic time to fish if the weathe...

Technical Glitch on STI
2007-09-05 17:36:00
Many thanks to Minwen and Zhi Yang from mypaper.sg (hope i get the name right as my mandarin is only half past six) for featuring my humble blog in the papers. The mandarin in the passage was like wow! so many idioms ah.. keke somehow intensify a simple interview.. wah journalist jiu si journalist... the pen bery powerderful! :D And Zhi Yang, snap snap away at shenton way with many passerbys giving me the wierd look! haha I thought i will never have to do this after my bridal shoot, i was wrong! :DIt was certainly a pleasant surprise for my folks. Thanks for making their day a happy one. : )Early in the trading day, there was a technical glitch on STI. Simsci open gap up and my put warrants from the day before looks set to be BBQ'ed. However due to the glitch, STI did not track simsci and it gave me time to get out of my put warrants with a 2 bids loss. Lucky escape! However, as i always avoid risk, the warrants i bought has got a slower delta and hence it won't move very fast aga...
More About: Technical , Glitch , Technic

30k to 40k per month?
2007-09-05 05:48:00
Just to set the record right, I am not making 30k to 40k per month! haha It was an estimation based on my stock picks. I never like to tempt people into trading promising big profits. It is certainly not easy. Rather for anyone who wishes to join this game, understand the RISK and learn how to manage risk before we even think about big profits. Thinking about profits all the time will weaken your psychology against market swings which are normal and happen plenty of times. This is one reason why many people took a loss and then only to watch the market rebound on them.Trust me, when you are able to decipher the market, money will flow naturally. Focus on deciphering the market. DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
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Early Stage of Recovery?
2007-09-04 16:02:00
The market showed a glaring no follow through in buying where most of the stock went under profit taking. A slew of economic data are due from the US. Bush and Ben assurance about economy and credit crunch did not have any impact outside US as all other regions succumb to weaker closing. Nothing bearish as yet as there were no massive selldown not including Midas.If we are at the early stage of recovery, sector by sector, interest will rotate in. It will not be good to see one sector after another showing "stalling" actions. Which means massive volume yet prices refuse to close higher. However i don't rule out one more leg down. This is because the current psychological state of market participants should be nervy and quick to profit. So long price doesn't move up further, common thinking is to sell first. Hence it is important for me to track the 4 sectors as mentioned yesterday for any clues of market direction. Since tomorrow is already Wednesday then Friday's closing should b...
More About: Recovery , Early , Stage , Earl

2 Obvious Sectors
2007-09-03 16:19:00
After tracking the rebound for 2 weeks, as we enter into the third week, it is time to pick the sector i will be invested in. Once I am confident of the market direction, this is the sector i will build my new portfolio around. From this sector, i will then look for the leader by my own definitions. Oil and gas suppliers looks good and constructions, it will be interesting to see if there is any follow through buying since they only started to rumble last week. I treat today's no follow through as an indication that there are plenty of selling still.Banks and Properties are the 2 sectors i will also scrutinise closely. I am taking a contrarian view here because it is too obvious that these 2 sectors will be under pressure. Using technical analysis, i will follow the smart money and avoid conventional thinking. Should smart money began to buy, i will follow too. But right now, i'm happier to stay sidelined.Recently, i managed to devised a XP screening rule to pick up possible short...
More About: Obvious , Sectors

Unusual movement ahead of Ben's speech
2007-08-31 07:20:00
US futures lead global indices into a sudden rush as we close higher at noon. This is ahead of ben's speech tonight. Judging from the buying, it seems like he may be annoucing something positive. But then again, it is never so easy. This week's actions has seen mostly buying interest, it makes the last few weeks of selling so forgettable. Over the past 2 weeks, I have managed 3 swing trades on STI and profited from the short side. I would have loved to sit on the put warrants, however, when trading the downside, i always remember this: Price when going down should be fast and furious. This is because of the panic and fear factor driving the price south in great speed. Hence when the market met with resiliency, I took my profits and wait to pounce again. I was very tempted to go long as the broad market seems to be having a field day. However, I never forget how easy it is to give profits back to the market and opted to stay out for now.Screening on my XPertTrader rule,...
More About: Speech , Ahead

Dow Jones for now
2007-08-24 12:07:00
The current price action brought DJI to a confluence level of upward fibonacci retracement and the top formation resistance. It was also observed that the downtrend line is nearby. RSI looks to be trading at the downtrend line. MacD indicator has a very interesting development. The signal line and MacD line crossed over during the last crash in March'07 and market recovered swiftly. This time round, we are at the same crossover point, the outcome will be interesting.Join us at SGX Auditorium on the 6th of September 2007,Profiting from the Bull and Bear Market. Click here for more detailsDISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Dow Jones , Jones

Taking Actions
2007-08-21 16:08:00
As seen from my previous posts, I already had a plan and an opinion about where the market is heading. Over the last few sessions, I promptly executed my plans calmly as the market moves in the direction of my anticipations. My plan was to trim down on my stock positions and to trade on the short side.It isn't difficult to see that rebounds lately had always been a short and quick affair. There was no sustained rebound and this is ringing alarm in my head. Through the weeks, I have dumped my stocks on rebound. Right now i'm left with 3 stocks. Later I will explain the rationale of keeping these 3 stocks. Index wise, i profited from 2 directions in quick trades. 2 weeks ago, STI was supported at 3300, I long the CW and took a quick profit. Today STI tested 3300 as resistance and it failed during intraday, i went for the put warrants and before the end of the day took a quick profit again. HSI's incredible plunge from positive 1000 to negative is a warning. However, a quick check o...
More About: Taking

Federal Chief Cuts Discount Rate
2007-08-18 02:56:00
We saw how the markets rebounded late afternoon and then at night, announcement came from US that Fed had cut the discount rate by .5 basis point. Is it coincidence? Or did the privelleged ones closer to information managed to move in first? Why did DJ rebound off 12,500 and close at 12,800s on Thursday night? Smart money also know where they should move price so that the confidence of the market will not be rattled. Hence I do not trade the market using guess work, i form my own opinion and act accordingly. Making use of Technical Analysis, I remain objective in times of panic and will enable me to trade a non random market. Market doesn't move in a random way, there are clues to where it will move and we should all have a Trading System to crack the stock market code. Source from http://www.federalreserve.gov, Ben BernankeIn June 2006, Ben holds interest rate hike and that set us off on a wonderful rally for the rest of the year. Now 2007, Ben cuts discount rate and many in the ...
More About: Chief , Discount , Rate , Cuts , Disc

Private Email Exposed
2007-08-17 11:02:00
Stupid, who shared his experience on the on-going turmoil in the shoutbox has emailed me to share a list of stocks to study.These stocks are deemed to be still expensive interms of FA. Here's the email.Thanks Stupid!Hi Decipher,I am STupId from your blog. Hope u can put up this list of stocks that L&S keep promoting and I simply can't see y we have to buy based on conservative FA. Everything has a price, I am not say DON"T buy FOREVER... but they should only be purchased when the price is MORE, much MORE attractive than now. Here it goes (in no particular order, just recalling from my head):Cheena Steel Trains (Midas)SIN-OH (Sino Environ)Strippers (Swiber)Red heart/Red star (HongXing)Red country (HongGuo)China Fertilizer (China XLX)YangZi(YangZiJiang)Lord of the YAN(Yanlord, even T**as*k was buying?? gosh, they under the L&S spell?)Love potion #9(JiuTian)Cheena Steel Balls (FerroChina, low margin n yet high valuation)ALL the LANs(capitaLAN, KEPPEL LAN, Shitty DEV, SG LAN... b...
More About: Email , Private , Riva , Pose

Support Levels for DJI
2007-08-16 09:46:00
Utilising Fibonacci, we can connect the low on early March '07 to the top on mid July '07 and we will get all the retracement levels. DJ has broken the perceived support at 13,228 points which was once the 38.2% support. We saw DJ trading above this support level during late July but this level has now given way. The possible technical support levels in technical analysis are as follows:200 Day Moving Average is at 12,813 levelFibonacci 50% Retracement LevelMajor Trendline support which is close to 200 Day Moving AverageDownload your FREE professional charting software or find out how to automate your stock selection.DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Support

A concerted effort
2007-08-12 16:05:00
Central banks all around started injecting funds into financial markets in response to ease credit crunch. This sort of sets off alarms in my head. They didn't act when Bear Sterns went down. However, when BNP's suspension of 2 funds came to light, global markets sell off. It was long thought that the subprime bad loans will not affect the economy until BNP's stunner. Now the world is afraid that the worst fear may be confirmed. My thoughts were, if BNP Paribas can be affected and central banks are acting, there could be more nasty surprises coming. Isn't financial market interesting? When markets are soaring high, everyone is worried about the bubble in China. But guess what? Uncle Dow was the culprit that punctured the bull run. While I managed to side step the bears by liquidating my whole portfolio when I first detect signs of troubles using Technical Analysis, I am still caught by my initial positions to rebuild my portfolio. I went back into the market too early....
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STI Exhaustion Gap?
2007-08-06 14:48:00
Following last Friday's sell off in US, STI had a huge gap down which promptly broke the 3400 perceived as a strong support last week. We have now closed below an important trendline support. I observed that the closing today was at resistance turns support and also at Fibonacci 50% retracement, rebound can be on the cards. Hence I turned long one STI CW. One can feel despair, fear and panic in the current market with many decided to throw in the towel. I went long because i see this gap down a possible bottom. Otherwise 200MA here we come...DJ is now trading around 13,200 support and Fed's meeting is on Tuesday night. If only they hint about reducing the interest rate.....GrowMoney Growth FundJasperHLHPoh Tiong ChoonYongnamLC DevTiongWoonSTI CW*Added STI CW todayDISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Exhaustion , Exhaust

Technical Analysis Case Study on HSI
2007-08-02 07:40:00
When Hang Seng Index(HSI) broke through to 23,500 levels, it was observed that a negative divergence is forming on the Histogram. It served as a warning that the current trend is losing strength. Now, we are experiencing a global sell off and fear is in the air. Using Technical Analysis , let us look at 1 possible support level for HSI. As highlighted, we will be looking at if the orange trendline can turn from resistance to support. 50 days Moving Average is also nearby and we might see confluence of signals.You may also want to discuss about technical analysis in our forum.Global indices charts are available in our ChartNexus Charting Software.Download your FREE professional charting softwareDISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Study , Technical Analysis , Case

Orh Bak Kak Bull
2007-08-01 07:41:00
Notice the blueblack eye?
More About: Bull

Price Precedes News
2007-07-31 17:41:00
I would think, we are not out of the woods yet. I'm gonna be patient and wait for the market to show me a bottom before I start to build my portfolio again. First rebound is nothing to be excited about. It's how the market test the previous low that matters. Things to watch out would be price actions, more selling or more buying. But before I build my portfolio, index is the other option where we can trade to cover paper losses. Last Friday my order for STI call warrants was not filled. I won't regret queing at the bid side and not buying from the offer side because it was an elephant spread and I will be paying higher premium for unneccesary risk. Market is always there, I will wait for another glorious opportunity to pull trigger.Tonight we shall visit two charts namely StraitsAsia and Midas to show you how price movement precedes news. I just hate this part of the market. The more informed always has this advantage over us small retailers. There are 2 ways we can pro...
More About: News , Price

Protected My Profits
2007-07-26 16:31:00
With US opening down almost 150 points, we are very close to breaking the support I concluded yesterday. Best scenario is for it to trade and form a base here. Current mood in the market is very nervy. Again the rally this morning was an opportunity to sell. By closing so much lower today, we look set to see a hanging man on the weekly chart. For now, I shall highlight what is going on from STI point of view.Summary of Observations lately:1) Index stocks got whacked2) Sector rotation was very fast, like dumping at rallies3) Every rally fails and got shot down4) Property stocks gone quiet since April and some even are in downtrendToday I took my profits for Hiap Seng when I again saw that there were broad market selling. This isn't normal at all. Tonight with wall street's huge loss.... tomorrow morning... no eyes see.. all I can hope for is not a big gap down for I know many people are still holding on to their shares. With blood being spilled in wall street, i'm glad last week I...
More About: Profits , Prot

Passion for Trading
2007-07-25 17:18:00
I am lucky to be given a chance to embark on my journey to fulfil my dream, and the chance to help thousands of fellow investors. It's like Beckham, being able to do what he likes most and get paid for it. Buffet said, "When you are doing something you like to do, it's no longer a job"Following is another story from BusinessWeek which I can relate closely to. I'm known for my passion for trading and it has lead me all the way to the stage of auditoriums and hotels podiums. I hope the story will inspire you as well. Now, I'm throwing an invite to anyone....anyone who wish to be doing what I'm doing now. If you have a passion for trading, understand the essence of Technical Analysis and trading psychology, step forward, and be different. Drop me an email at decipherlabs@yahoo.com.sg I want to help realise your dream. BusinessWeekFrom Homeless to MultimillionaireTuesday July 24, 8:08 am ETBy Carmine GalloIt's not every day you get the chance to pick the brain of a man whose ...
More About: Trading , Passion , Passi

Volatile Market
2007-07-25 16:18:00
Last Friday I was already preparing for a stormy week ahead and I observed the price actions with keen interest. Every rally was shortlived and sellers were out in full force driving prices to close flat or lower. I do not like this kind of action. Furthermore, I observed since the rebound, the market rotated very fast and quick as if prices were jacked up to offload.We had it easy during the last few months where stocks just flew up the charts. Now is the time where the informed market participants will be able to separate themselves from the misinformed. The question on everyone's mind (including mine), isit time to buy now? I must admit, it is very easy to be tempted by the "cheaper" prices we are seeing now. If i buy because I think the prices are cheap then I am not following my trading rules. Deep inside me, I know what is the consequences of not following my own trading rules and system. Also, I never forget what the great Livermore said in his book, "There are times ...
More About: Market

Bears tried, Bulls won
2007-07-23 16:51:00
I thought today's market will be a sea of red after the weak closing in US. Nikkei started as worse as it can get (-200) when we opened at 9am. There were indeed selling. However much to the delight of many, we showed strength and closed mixed with a tint of rotational buy ups.GrowMoney QuickPicksAqua-TerraCourage MarineHeetonPan HongTechCompI added LC Development and Yongnam last Friday. Perfect timing as constructions taking a breather today... #@!$!#@$%#$%#@#DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Bears , Bulls , Ears , Bear , Trie

GrowMoney Blog Privatised!
2007-07-19 18:00:00
Dearest all,Do not be alarmed by the new look. You have come to the right site. The story goes like this, I was offered to take my blog private and host on a domain instead of blogspot.... F.O.C! After weeks of negotiations, MOU was signed and today phase 1 launch! You will see more good stuffs on this site in the near future! :) Would you want a space to chart perhaps? or an alert to flag impt price movements? Soon...... Huat arh!!Today I sold ChinaTrans when Midas drop like a stone due to some negative rumour. It reminded me of the days when CAO got into trouble and the rest of the red army got whacked. I feel safer to hold offshore sector stocks for now and still favour them. The developer charge tax has got nothing to do with them. Hence they are innocent in the panic selling. With 70% cash, there is alot I can do. : )Historically whenever DJ is testing round numbers 11k,12k,13k,14k it breaks through for a few sessions and then retrace. Hence next week, i will watch for negative...
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Market flipped by the bears
2007-07-19 02:42:00
3 pieces of news rocked the market yesterday.1. Govt issued a new ruling to cool property sector2. US hedge fund went burst3. Rumours has it that there will be trading curb due to recent fanatic surge in penny sharesNow we know why property counters ain't moving recently despite STI goes into unchartered waters. Well what's new? Price actions always come before news. US hedge fund went burst is nothing new. So what in the world happened?Last night US showed some strength when it manages to close a small red. Nikkei had already gap up and rebound. We are poised to rebound too. Watch for strength in the rebound for clues of if this is just a blip in the uptrend. As for construction and property sector, i be watching how market react to the new ruling.I sold Noble, StraitsAsia, Swiber, Yongnam, CSC during the plunge yesterday. Even if market was to rebound from here, i have no regrets. As traders, the most important thing is to manage our risk and protect our profits. If everything i...
More About: Market , Bears , Flip , Ears , Bear

Uneasy Divergence
2007-07-17 01:24:00
This is the second session where we open higher only to close lower. Intra day wise, selling seems to be well absorbed. But clearly the buying mood was not present.Again, in my screening, i observed property counters are still weak and STI is showing a negative divergence. Plenty of forgotten stocks started to rally. These are textbook warning signs. With Dow Jones holding well and advancing, we could be dragged along without convictions. Price objective of Dow Jones is within grasp and with earnings season coming up, i wonder if there will be a sell on confirmation(good numbers were expected) situation. 18th July will see first set of inflation data being read. With such a ferocious rally, there are plenty of room to fall if the numbers turn out unfriendly.Last Friday added ChinaTranscom to my growth fund.DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.
More About: Diver , Dive

Case Study: Adv Hldg
2007-07-12 19:34:00
SINGAPORE: Adv Hldg finished the recent session with an interesting candle on high volume. It was observed that 20 Days Moving Average provides excellent support during the uptrend. The stock is stuck in the range between $0.53 and $0.57 for now. With RSI in oversold region, the stock is poised for a rebound. It will be interesting to observe if this stock can breakout.Find out what others think about here. My anticipations of the Market direction came true, I may have to sell one or two stocks to raise funds for another stock i am eyeing. It always make perfect sense to sell on the way up. Registration for Cracking the Stock Market Code Intake 16 is now on! I am terribly sorry to people I have to turn away as intake 15 was sold out 1 week before the event. Now that intake 16 is opened, I hope to see you there. Also, if you look at my upcoming events right at the top of the page, you should know why i am seldom online these days. It's a crazy July for me.... bridal shoot, renovati...
More About: Study , Case

Case Study: StraitsAsia
2007-07-11 10:20:00
Adapted from ChartNexus Technical Analysis Case Study SeriesThe stock is in a near term downtrend and trading near it's near term support at 1.40. At the same time, it is sitting on a trendline support. It was under selling pressure over the last couple of weeks and we see 1.58 as a near term resistance. Support can be taken at the recent low on the 28th June 2007. It was further observed that RSI indicator is in oversold and a rebound can be on the cards. 20 Days Moving Average has been a good support for StraitsAsia as highlighted in yellow.Find out what others think about this stock here.Download your FREE professional charting software or find out how to automate your stock selection.DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.
More About: TRAI

A Swiberish Good Time
2007-07-10 16:47:00
I am seeing bearish divergence in the indicators on STI's weekly chart. Also, the lacklustre performance of some of the bluechips caught my attention. Wall street has this saying, if the leaders are not leading the market, the second liners won't be able to lead for long. With this information in my mind, i shall be cautious. Bearish divergence is a warning siren. I remember not paying attention to this and got punished during my early days in trading. It is important to track how the market plays out for the rest of the week. It's either market pulls back for a correction, or it trades sideways to neutralise the divergence.Crude oil has silently climbed to US$72 per barrel! All the oil and gas related stocks could be in play. So are those from the alternate fuel industry. We opened higher and close lower today, this will certainly squeeze contra players. If market doesn't rebound in the next 3 days, more selling will ensue as contra players liquidate their positions due to co...
More About: Time , Good

Here without Dow
2007-07-04 16:36:00
Dow is closed tonight and hence we saw quite a fair bit of profit taking at closing. Notably construction counters. Tomorrow's open will be guided by Nikkei or any newsflow locally. I like intra week selling as it may set up a grand finish to the week. If you are curious, how come the quickpicks are so uncannily accurate, don't be. I never expect them to outperform the market. They are just stocks from my personal analysis where I think the risk/reward is good. Movement is just a matter of time. It is the responsibility of the trader to know when to execute. There will be times when we are wrong, times when we are right. What matters most is you win more when you are right, and u lose small when you are wrong. All these are part of a trading system. By the way, only 6 places are left for my class on the 14th of July! There is no reason for you to lose in a bull market. If you dare to click buy button, i urge you to join my events and let me share with you my system. At each ChartN...