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Asia catching up with Dow
2008-07-15 09:42:00
After 3 weeks of inactivity, finally the market hots up. Stocks started the brief rebound last week and today it all came into an abrupt end. I am only too glad that the market tanked today otherwise it is really very difficult to understand it. At least now i know the simple rules of the market still works and i am able to get the direction right. Despite all these talk about de-couple from US bla bla bla, today Asia market decided to finally cave in and joined the US in the south pole. As i am writting this, Dow has broken the 11k psychological support. Next major support will be at 10,700 thereabouts. Asia has a long way to catch up since the Mar'08 low is still intact. HSI support is targetted at 20,800 and STI? 2743 should go first.How do we explain the selling in S-shares? simple, all you need to do is understand why does it go up in such high volume? One of my traing principle, if the stock has higher than usual volume and the price doesn't go higher, it has to c...

Asia De-coupled with US
2008-07-13 10:02:00
While dow broke to new low for 2008, HSI, Nikkei & STI are still staying above the Mar'08 low. What is happening here? Nan dao, we are really de-coupled with Dow? The super-power is no longer Dow but China? Perhaps history is in the making for all of us to witness how China takes over as super power. Friday's strong closing came after days where market teased to the downside. I was definitely looking at a break to the downside, however market holds steady. The fact that it can holds steady despite Dow keeps going lower is a cause of concern for my shorts. I just checked the Dow's chart, still as ugly only thing is again it is in the state of oversold a rebound is likely. Even on STI, i wouldn't immediately call it the reversal. There are methods to identify reversal and the born of an uptrend and i will rather wait for these tell tale signs. The rebound on Friday brought many China stocks near their resistance. I will be waiting to see, what to see? If any of thos...
More About: Asia

Grossly oversold
2008-07-06 08:49:00
Delightful is the word i would use to describe how i feel when the market came down whole week long. Recalling how i was wrong about market moving higher in May, i made a decision to square off all my long positions to re-analyse the direction. Then i believed the market is heading down and from the way i read the market, i had a feeling 3000 and 12000 will not hold. Simply put it, if these levels hold, i would square off my shorts or should they break, i can look to short. My plan is to develop an opinion and trade in that direction while looking out for evidence that my opinion is wrong. This method is much better than "I see market up, i long, i see market red, i short" a sure way to lose money consistently. One of the question frequently asked was, when can i short? My answer is very simple, two levels we must know. Support and Resistance. Resisted at resistance or break support and we look to short. This is the only way you have the highest probability in your favour....

Dow broke March's low
2008-06-29 09:46:00
Dow has broke the psychological support level which is the low achieved in March. The ADX is screaming at a strong downtrend. However with such an extreme movement on this indicator, we may see light at the end of the tunnel. This may be just a slight rebound. Especially with RSI in oversold. I will be watching for major support levels in most stocks. Once they crack, "mai tu liao". DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Banking stocks & Straits Asia
2008-06-25 09:47:00
After performing my usual 4 steps screening with XPertTrader, banking stocks and Straits Asia appeared to look interesting technically. For banking stocks, they will have a short term rally should Ben unexpectedly raise the interest rate. From the charts, DBS and OCBC looks like reversing. For Straits Asia, I see a possible chance to do counter-trend trading here. With it's well known volatility, this short-term opportunity should be worth taking a look.Golden Agri together with the rest of the agriculture stocks got hammered today. This furthers reinforced my belief that i should not be riding on trends as there is non to speak of in this current market. It is better to take profit at resistance level or support level if short. Just checked the news and saw that oil slips $4 on increase in inventory. Tsk tsk... news must have leaked out during Asia trading hours, otherwise why did these stocks lao sai in anticipations of the news? Price moves ahead of news my friends....STI t...
More About: Stocks , Banking

Awaiting Big Ben
2008-06-23 09:10:00
Today's actions surprised me. Again the market looks resilient. This was observed last week as well as many stocks hold steady after the plunge in May'08. Look around, and you will notice alot of stocks are still not trading below the March's low. I too am tempted to go long to take advantage of this rebound. However i choose to do otherwise. With my trendlines and indicators in place, i realise this may not be the best time to go long as yet. No doubt we are near support levels, but experience tells me, there is a time to fish near support, there is also a time even support can breaks easily. The trading principle behind this is, in a bull market, support levels will hold and resistance levels will crack. The opposite is true for the bear market. I paused.... closed my eyes as i sit comfortably with soft music playing in the background in my war room... what do we observe in the market? Resistance are holding and support level has cracked. Some stocks got resisted at 200-day MA ...

The bears came knocking again
2008-06-22 09:04:00
STI hangs precautiously near 2 support namely the trendline and the gap support. With Dow overnight strong closing to the south pole. Monday morning should see pressure. A quick glimpse of the world indices revealed nothing but weakness. Perhaps they are anticipanting Ben to talk about inflation and worse still, to raise rate? I saw a report on Sunday times reporting funds pulling out of this region. A replica of what i saw in 2001. I have been waiting for Dow to give me a tua lao sai to the south, but it never came and i had to cover my capland on the rebound. Now it's gone to where i had anticipated, but i have got no short position. Haiz... got to find a stock from XPertTrader to short this coming week. DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Bears

Third time lucky?
2008-06-17 08:45:00
XPertTrader picks up Golden Agri as it tested 200-day MA as a support. Couple this up with the strong rally by IndoAgri (broke downtrend resistance line) and Wilmar, attractive isn't it? DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Time , Lucky

Money in the pocket is mine
2008-06-16 07:56:00
My last observation on the market tells me we may not see lower. As such, i promptly took my profits off capland shorts. There wasn't any fear in the market to add fuel to the fire which is shorting in this case. With a falling window yet to be closed, i reckon the rebound may take me back to at least $6. My options were clear, do i want to keep the profits in the pocket and declare it is my money? Or do i want to leave it on the table to ride out the rebound? Doesn't it makes more sense for me to take my profit and then re-look to short? I choose the latter. UN wants Saudi to increase output. There are risks to the upside. Especially Dow's sterling performance on Friday due to tame reading on inflation. Also, many of the oscillators were oversold..indicating a rebound may be coming.Another reason for me to take my profit is the loss suffered last month where i went full long at the wrong time. Slowly but surely, i will accumulate my profits.STI has a big gap from 3146 to 3085 to...
More About: Money , Mine , Pocket

Dow rebounds to no avail
2008-06-10 10:05:00
Even a brief rebound by Dow couldn't prevent our market going down. HSI ended spectacularly lower. Our bourse also faced a late sell off as many stocks finished near their lows. This time round i'm blissfully on short as i stared at how weak the market was. Capland simply went "holland" and closed below the $6 mark. I decided to cut my manhattan resource as i see weakness from the weekly chart. I certainly doesn't want a eat pig pay dog situation here. How unfair can it be? Straits asia goes green and my manhattan goes down... both are coal related... #@$@#$!@#%Capitaland: Price over-extends itself and we are now trading outside the uptrend channel. MFI reading shows that money has been flowing out of capland since Apr. Something for shortist to watchout for, there is a slight bullish divergence on Capland.SIA has finally broken out of it's trading range. The high oil price is without a doubt bad news for it.DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do you...

Slow death?
2008-06-09 07:32:00
The market plunged as expected and we saw many support levels cracked. Especially S-shares, last 2 weeks saw them testing their support levels and looked firm. It may have induced alot of investors in. Genting and Golden surely have trapped many. With these supports giving way, more downside to come. However, the volume was nothing much to shout about. With my volume screening rule, it reveals that many of these support levels cracked but not many are with heavy volume signifying lesser participation. Unlike resistance, support broken with light volume doesn't mean it won't fall down further. It is like an avalanche, as it falls, more and more players will feel the heat and one by one they start to sell creating a snowball effect. This is where we see the price keeps dropping on light volume....dying a slow death. Rather, if we see high volume sell off, then the market has a chance to recover faster.STI is trading too close to 3000 for comfort. Should we break this psyc...
More About: Death , Slow

Black Monday
2008-06-08 09:16:00
With Dow plunging -394 on Friday, it's hard for STI not to follow suit. The strength on Thursday night evaporated after a higher than expected unemployment rate hits Wall Street. It's going to be a very interesting Monday for me. Friday night as i was watching CNBC with great delight. Why? Because, with such a heavy plunge on Dow, my short on capland is almost certain to be profitable. More interestingly, all the coal stocks in US were up! I too had manhattan resources. Will it be double bliss for me? Last week i had to cut my HSICW. My bet on a hsi rebound did not materialise and i had to cut my position at a loss. I was glad i stuck to my plans and exited when my stop loss was triggered. Otherwise tomorrow, that small loss will balloon into a big loss! Dow at most goes down a few more days as the oscillators are already in oversold. I am anticipating a candlestick reversal pattern for easy decision making.European Championship got into the way this weekend. Market...
More About: Black

Singtel to breakout to downside?
2008-06-03 16:51:00
Singtel: Indicators suggesting a breakout to downside possible. Price resisted at 20DMA, sell signal from TT2 (CTA course short strategy). A quick check with GMMA which is a trend indicator shows that indeed we may enter into a downtrend. $3.60 is the support to watch.DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Market under seige
2008-06-03 06:26:00
Nikkei, HSI and SG came under fire after the weak closing on Dow. Will we see March's low? The only index to save us will be HSI, it has the ability and a mind of its own to lead the S-shares. Look out for a late afternoon reversal before our market sucummb to european pressure at 4pm.Capland, along with many property counters came down. More interestingly, a descending triangle breakout just before lunchtime. Possible target of $5.80.Dow: A temporary bounce off the previous low and we look towards the low 12,000s should this level give way. I am looking at a possible line(blue) of least resistance to the downside. DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Market

Nightmare before nightfall
2008-06-02 16:59:00
Those who were looking at the market wouldn't have missed the afternoon sell-down. Dow futures plunged and euro's weak opening didn't help either. HSI was very strong whole day and at one stage lead the S-shares in our bourse. Gosh, i nearly bought one of them. But being long on HSI and manhattan resource, i reckon it isn't sound to be vested heavily on the long side in this volatile market. I am still seeing downtrend channel... unless we break that. Of course my all out loss last week still fresh on my mind and this prevented me from being too aggressive. Is it time to short? Yes, i will be looking to short if stocks break their minor low.No good opportunities today, but i found a classic candlestick reversal pattern in Ezra's chart. With such high volume and a bearish reversal pattern, it's very difficult to not die.DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Nightmare

STI Direction
2008-05-30 07:24:00
Capitaland's strong rebound from oversold caught my eye. I be watching the falling window marked by red lines followed by the downtrend resistance line overhead. STI edges up cautiously. Currently MFI is pending a downtrend breakout. Money may start flowing into the market again. However i be watching the blue line resistance. If both STI and capland together with the rest of the market can break the downtrend line, it may be time to go long. However, they struggle at that level, i will initiate short positions. This is an example of ask not where the market is going but what you going to do when the market gets there. It is highly important to develop your thoughts about the market and trade accordingly. HSI is rebounding now, however, this is just a swing trade for me as there are overhead resistance nearby.DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Direction

HSI very close to a rebound
2008-05-29 13:01:00
Oscillator is showing oversold and with recent closing, we can see it has started to rebound. Currently the index is trading near support levels at oversold level, pretty attractive level to pick up CW. Tomorrow is Friday, i will be watching out for a mixed day and how the support is tested. Intra-day wise should see good support in terms of price actions.GrowMoney XPertTrader Screening ResultsManhanttan ResourceSPHSwisscoDISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Close

Stop loss triggered
2008-05-29 10:50:00
A pause by the bears saw me took my humble losses on my 3 losing positions. I was dead wrong abt the direction and the last thing i want to do is to hold and hope. Now that i have raised cash from the sales, i'm all ready to look at the next opportunity. My wife asked me, "why is it that you can get it wrong?" To her, i can only smile and explained that losses are part and parcel of this game. I do not focus on the money lost from the stop loss, rather, it is important to focus on the next opportunity. I have been in this business long enough to know that, money can be made and losses if any best to keep it small. Hence it is important to be forward looking and get ready for the next trade setup. My friend new to trading asked, "Is it really so easy to just cut loss?" Of course not, the pain is still there when i cut, but i choose to ignore the pain. This is why psychology in trading is important. However i also know that in trading i cannot focus too much on the money prefering to...
More About: Stop , Loss , Stop-Loss

A very familiar experience
2008-05-26 17:08:00
It has been a very long time.... really a very long time since i am caught in a loser situation. Remember i went long 5 stocks 2 weeks ago when i declare good risk/reward. Yes although my risk is limited, i am now staring at 3 paper loss. Although they are capped at 2% risk control, but it still doesn't feel good to see 3 losing position. The 4th stock had been cut last Friday to go into this decline lighter. The 5th stock is still trending and has yet to trigger my trailing stop. Not to forget i was long hsi on Friday. :PIt's good that the dampening Dow isn't trading tonight. Frankly speaking, i did not see this coming. I was expecting a pull back of the normal kind, typical of an uptrend. Will i short now? No. Major support are still holding in many stocks. Unless they start to give way, which is a clue to me that the market will head lower, otherwise i will still believe all is not over.If i am right, market starts to turn upwards, then that will be my best conviction.DISCLAIM...
More About: Experience

HSI pulls down the curtains
2008-05-20 13:53:00
Weakness all day long. It isn't the kind of day i expected after a strong performance by DJ overnight. HSI strangely was shot down at the opening bell and throughout the day remains weak. It drags our market down along with it. The most "sian" part is how my stocks came under fire. I have loaded up to 5 stocks by last Friday anticipating a strong week ahead. My anticipation of the market direction is wrong. A screen at the market reveal many shooting stars wannabes and i saw agri-culture stocks hogging the headlines after the strong surge by oil. STI barely survives the 20DMA support. From here, i will start to observe dojis at support level to ascertain this is just a normal retracement. Otherwise, this is indeed not good news for my portfolio and i will start to look at shorting candidate. ST-Engrg is my top pick to go down if it's current support at 3.16 gives way.DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

200-Day moving average beckoning
2008-05-19 15:26:00
Can you hear the bulls knocking? The horns locking... we looked set to challenge the all important psychological level of 200-day moving average soon. We may be meeting the bulls at 3300 in a decider.Plenty of economy data out in the US this week and market will seek clue abt Fed's thinking in the FOMC meeting minutes to be released on Wednesday. It is important to decipher how the market react prior to the news and after.As for HSI, i will be looking at opportunity to long this index.GrowMoney QuickpicksDBSSGXQuickpicks are generated from XPertTraderDISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Moving , Average

Impact of China earthquake
2008-05-14 17:11:00
So far the market didn't take the earthquake too badly. However i do observe the high volume transacted for S-shares and the price wasn't able to clear the resistance. Now, if the price continues trading at this level and doesn't head higher, i'm going to take a bearish view. I was pretty disappointed my stocks did not gain strongly after the triple digits gain by Dow Jones. Current situation i am in is, i have been opening up new positions as buy signals began to appear in my XPertTrader screening. Support levels still holding well and tonight's CPI from US side shows tame results. Hence i will cautiously load up and build a portfolio of stocks to ride to 3300 pts.Growmoney quickpicksBeautyChina STX POFerroChinaDISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Earthquake

Market at my pivotal point
2008-05-11 03:33:00
After a good run, market began to digest the recent gains. This is good for a sustainable run. I am seeing major indices sitting nicely on MA support and this is where the risk/reward is good to trade. I also notice during this selling, alot of price are still trading above support. In a bull market, support will hold and this is what i am seeing. Until these support levels start to crack, i am biased to the upside.A couple of stocks we should not miss. Singtel, Sihuan, ISDN. In a volatile market, these 3 stocks have predictable movement.Those interested to learn Fibonacci retracement, don't forget to join me and my team of trainers at SGX auditorium this Thursday evening, 15 May 2008, 7pm to 9pm. Make sure you grab your trading buddy along. After the seminar, dinner will be served and this is where we can talk about market as we drink and eat along.Alot of people have wrote to me or spoken to me in private asking why am i not updating the blog regularly. For those who have follow...
More About: Market , Point

S-shares idea
2008-05-06 18:07:00
Market great rebound betrayed the index's flat closing. This market is really resilient. Despite Dow's losses we gain strongly. I fancy s-shares base on their performance today. The volume buy up is good as it is almost as high as when they were sold. Now the thing to look out for is, whether they can clear the last high to give me a high 5... opps... i meant higher high. Because with such high volume, it doesn't augers well if it doesn't break the last high and it will be worse if it comes down as this to me serve as a warning of distribution.Alot of S-shares came out from the screening tonight. There are many that has ran up, but some are still pending breakout. Chinasky has an ascending triangle.... then when i check fibrechem... wah this sector majam hasn't run as yet. But since oil price is running high, i thought CAO chart looks sweet. Hongxin i too am tempted but the risk reward was not in my favour and i have to pass it up. Pattern i observed now, intra-day weakness ...
More About: Idea , Shares

Market boosted by Fed cut again
2008-05-04 16:09:00
Market finished strongly on Friday boosted by Dow's superior closing. Bearish chart formations on indices are still intact after last week and i shall trade with caution. With the Fed rate cut, market may have factored in the rise. Get ready for impact. Hmmm... what should i be doing? There are a couple of good signals from tonight's XPertTrader screening, but given the position of where STI is, i prefer to sell. I be looking forward to harvest my rewards vested 2 weeks ago. My tactic now will be hit and run. Meaning? Buy at support, Sell at resistance.But i also cannot be overly cautious and miss out the good chances. Judging from my experience from tape reading, i don't smell any bear as yet. Let's see how Monday plays out. Then perhaps tomorrow night i can share more observations.Agri stocks look like diamond pattern forming.DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.
More About: Market , Boosted

Divergence spotted on major indices
2008-04-27 08:15:00
Beaish divergence was observed coincidentally on all 4 major indices i am tracking. This is a warning to me that the current uptrend is showing weakness. This does not mean the price will definitely turn down sharply. So how do we make use of this information? 1) I will not take any new position since there will be a risk of a retracement. Buying now may result in buying at the high. 2) I may turn to short stocks which are trading at resistance, weak on the indicators.3) Watch how the bearish divergence may be invalidated by a strong bull movement. Other observations include the high trading volume which has no follow through on Friday. I never like it when there is high volume and yet the price could not close higher. Granted, it may be a typical Friday where investors are more cautious. But high volume??? Also, i had this fear that we may be experiencing distribution recently. Fed meeting is coming up! Time to play big small again keke Anyway, bradley turn date on the 27th Apr......
More About: Major

China garment support market
2008-04-24 16:46:00
Now we know why S-shares were so hot over last 2 weeks. China side has reduced trading fees. This is one of my favourite tagline at seminar, price moves ahead of news. I still remember there was a time when i was speaking at NUS, one student ask me, how come the price moves up before the news is known? I can only smile and wink at them.... yes insider trading is illegal... but does it happen in the market? Up to your imagination i told them. *I had to be politically right* keke However for the rest of us, i'm sure we know this is why Technical Analysis works. When the buying starts, it leaves trail.No wonder every night when i screen one of my MUST screen rules using XPertTrader, big volume, plenty of china stocks keep coming up. All the 4r1g signals work. Today's closing was not bullish. We saw alot of stocks closing off the high. This is where we should start looking at heavy dumping at this level. When i screened for big volume, this time round i have 54 stocks appea...
More About: Market , Support

T.A should be easy and fun!
2008-04-23 16:46:00
Sorry guys, i was too busy with my personal matters as well as work. My grandma was hospitalised and I had to visit her in the evening, leaving little time to blog. Ever since i started trading, the most obvious change in my life is the sacrificing of time with my family. Ironic... when she is at home, i no time to visit her.... when she is hospitalised, i make it an effort to visit her as often as i can. What is this nonsense???Work wise, exciting stuffs coming up. Everyone should know we have a training team now. While i seek to increase the team, i myself will have an opportunity to step back and take care of the after course support! Yes, we have more than 1000 graduates and it will be a good number to work with. Also i have stepped up sending T.A case study to all ChartNexus users, i want to promote the use of T.A in the investment community. This is really something that inspire me. Why? Because i was just a usual computer engineer in a MNC company just 1 year ago. Now i ...
More About: Easy

Market selling subdued
2008-04-15 15:22:00
After Monday's plunge, I notice the volume wasn't at the high side. Dow's mixed closing suggested that the bears are taking a breather. Will it continue tonight, no one will know for sure. I have seen one day plunge, next day doji and then gap down again. But the market actions after the plunge was different from what i remembered. Hence there is a chance market will react differently. Another observation is how many of the stocks refuse to break last week's low. The logic is simple, if it is really bearish, we would have gone down swiftly. Hence, i found the actions biased to the upside. However, we must be wary of a bear flag in the making. I cannot ignore the fact that bad news have been absorbed very well by the market. It doesn't seem to make sense that the market can moves up with bad news all around. What i can make out of this is, let us profit from this rebound and then turn short accordingly when market decides to digest the bad news. I waited for 2 weeks ...
More About: Selling , Market

Market left confused
2008-04-13 14:40:00
My convictions paid off as my market opinon was acted out by the market. Following my plan, i initiated more short positions and was looking forward for STI to crash below 3k. Alas, Friday's surprising strong performance forced me to cover back my shorts intra-day. I remembered reading this phrase from Livermore's book, "If you see a train coming at you at 80km/hr, you are plain stupid to still stand in it's way. We can always jump off first, wait for it to past and then jump back onto the track." Similarly, i was feeling the same as i saw the buying strength and i especially do not like the way the selling was absorbed. Without saying, Nikkei and HSI big rally give the bulls a boost. Boy a i glad i covered early and not leave it to 5pm as the late buying really squeezed lots of shorts out there. All these before Dow opened for trading few hours later... now i wish i haven't sold.... hahahaOvernight, Dow crashed at long last! It was the reason why i was so cautious abou...
More About: Market , Left