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Discursive Monologue

Discursive Monologue
Reporting on the massive torrent of wealth from the United States to East Asia, the depreciation of the U.s. Dollar, and hedging strategies.
Articles: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

Articles

The dollar is up, but it won?t stay there. The mainstream media has it wron
2008-10-18 00:46:00
The trade-weighted U.S. dollar index has risen nearly 15 percent from its lows in March. Most of the articles in the main stream media claim that this is a vote of confidence in the U.S. economy, or that investors consider the U.S. economy to be the the least bad, globally. If those ideas were correct, ...
More About: Media , Dollar , Stay , Mainstream Media
Redux: Who owns America? How is foreign ownership of U.S. Treasuries and ot
2008-09-27 21:43:00
Last year, I wrote a series of posts about foreign ownership of U.S. securities in an attempt to show that the reckless spending of America (private and public) has the effect of transferring American wealth abroad. It is not my belief that any people deserve to have a wealth advantage over others; I only write ...
More About: Politics , Foreign , Treasuries
Things are bad, so let?s have a laugh?Fuld, Cox, Paulson, Bernanke, and Iva
2008-09-23 03:03:00
I was thinking about something that former Lehman Brothers CEO, Richard Fuld said at the Lehman Brothers annual meeting in April. He was still confident that he could sail his sinking boat back to the harbor. “I will hurt the shorts, and that is my goal,” said Fuld. After hearing that, the only thing that ...
More About: Politics , Timeless , Things , Bernanke , Laugh
Paulson?s Bailout Bluffs and SEC Ridiculousness
2008-09-20 17:33:00
I played a lot of Texas Hold’em Poker during one of my years at university. I wasn’t the greatest player, but I made money by playing carefully and managing my bets according to the odds. There was one type of player that I always welcomed at the table–the bad bluffer. The bad bluffer was a ...
More About: Bailout
CERN?s Large Paulson Collider goes online; experiment could reveal new info
2008-09-13 21:21:00
[FYI, for the humor impaired, this post is a parody of this AP article about the LHC] Washington - It has been called the Goldilocks injection into the balance sheets of Wall Street banks–or dangerous tampering with free markets that could spell doomsday. Whatever the case, the most powerful Wall Street bailout ever created came online Sunday, ...
More About: Experiment , Info , Online , Timeless , Large
I saw Treasury Secretary Paulson loading his bailout bazooka; He?s pointing
2008-09-06 22:11:00
On 13 July 2008, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson promulgated his proposal for increased government power to quell market angst over the solvency, liquidity, and credit of the mortgage securitization giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It was the shot heard ’round the world–a self-inflicted shot to the head, that is. Paulson’s plan allowed expanded lending ...
More About: Bailout , Loading
Wuz that a professional writing for nbcolympics.com?
2008-08-20 01:26:00
I am about to blow your mind. Yesterday, I was reading about the disaster that is the new olympic gymnastics scoring system. To make a long story short, United States gymnast Nastia Liukin lost the tie - breaker for the individual uneven bars yesterday. If you’re not familiar with the new scoring system, you should ...
More About: Writing , Timeless , Professional
Vorbis v. mp3 - A small comparison of two compressed audio formats, from a
2008-08-02 22:37:00
I am behind the curve on this one, but I finally decided to look into ogg Vorbis for compressing my digital audio. Geeks have been raving about Vorbis for years. I’ve been perfectly happy converting CDs into the more commonly used mp3s. To my ears, the quality of my mp3s is indistinguishable from the original ...
More About: Computers , Audio , Small , Comparison
Check out my Wordle ?Word Clouds?
2008-07-25 00:12:00
Someone emailed a nifty web site to me called Word le and I played with it a bit this afternoon. The site has a java applet that creates a word cloud based on either a group of words that you type into a text area or the words from a RSS feed (just enter the URL). ...
More About: Computers , Clouds , Check
Fannie and Freddie: World?s Largest SIVs Brought on Balance Sheet; Also: Mo
2008-07-17 04:35:00
Americans have been preoccupied with the news of the (nebulous) bailout plan proposed by the U.S. Treasury for troubled mortgage securitizers Freddie Mac (FHLMC) and Fannie Mae (FNMA)–”Fraudie Mac” and “Phony Mae,” as some have called them. Certainly, Secretary Paulson and has gang of Silver Spooners and government flunkies have been selling the plan ...
More About: World , Sheet , Balance Sheet , Balance
Lessons from a Micro-Cap
2008-06-06 14:43:00
In October, I mentioned that I was taking a baby position in Enterprise Oilfield Group, an oilfield services company in Canada. I bought this stock because I liked the management, growth prospects, and performance relative to its peers. With a market cap of under $20 million at the time of my purchase and the trading ...
More About: Investing , Micro , Lessons
Poverty terrified by the prospect of a McCain presidency; calls him a war-m
2008-04-28 03:49:00
Few (if any) presidential candidates have had the audacity to pledge a war during their bid for the Oval Office, but John McCain never was one for playing his cards close to his chest. In case you had not guessed by now, I am referring to McCains pledge of a War on Poverty . Why are ...
More About: Calls , Timeless , Presidency , Prospect
Rooting against the Yankees - Why Wall Street banks always win, no matter h
2008-03-26 16:32:00
The Yankees don’t win the World series every year, but they always have good seasons and they always walk away rich. The commonly given reason for the success of the Yankees is that they buy their team. The Wall Street oligarchy has an even better win streak (perfect, in fact); and it is financed by ...
More About: Banks , Matter
Why Americans might have to rethink that trip to Europe; the dollar isn?t d
2007-11-21 17:52:00
It is amazing that, despite the falling dollar and concomitant rising prices, many people still refuse to admit that the falling dollar will affect them in any meaningful way; or that it could get a lot worse. Most people don?t understand the long-term fundamental pressures that will invariably beat the dollar down, so their reasoning ...
More About: Europe , Dollar , Trip , Americans , Rope
Risk aversion returning; it?s all in the commercial paper
2007-11-20 13:54:00
Have you ever been using a lawn tool powered by an internal combustion engine as it runs out of petrol? The engine wants to keep running, but it just doesn’t have the fuel to maintain power (or life). It sputters, gains momentum again only to throttle back down before starving for fuel and dying. Equities ...
More About: Commercial , Risk , Paper
Funny Video Friday - Child get?s knocked over by splash at water park
2007-11-16 22:45:00
Now that my Internet connection has been restored, I managed to find a short, funny clip of a child getting knocked over by a big splash at a water park. The ride looks exactly like a ride at Cedar Point that was called Snake River Falls (I used to go there yearly when I was ...
More About: Video , Funny , Funny Video , Water , Splash
Internet Outage
2007-11-16 16:26:00
I lost my Internet connection for almost two days, so I have been without news or posting capabilities (luckily, I write my posts at least a day in advance and set a publishing date). It turns out that someone unplugged my cable from the box. I just got it fixed, but I’m way behind on ...
More About: Life , Outage
Foreign movers and shakers for U.S. Securities in August: Who bought and so
2007-11-15 13:29:00
As I wrote previously, August was the worst month in terms of foreigner dumping U.S. Securities that I have seen since I started paying attention to capital markets–on of the worst months in 5 years. There was a net sale of $34.86 billion worth of securities by foreigners, according to the August TICS data. I ...
More About: Foreign , Reign , Movers
When a 40 percent discount is not enough for bank stocks; how sub-prime cou
2007-11-14 13:49:00
Yesterday, I wrote about how many banks are hiding their devalued assets in a balance sheet classification known as level 3–a category that allows banks to model the value of their assets according to internal models. I suggested that many of the values quoted on balance sheets are apocryphal and likely marked closer to par ...
More About: Stocks , Bank , Prime , Discount , Prim
Financial stocks are worse than a blind date: You know that they are ugly,
2007-11-13 13:08:00
Recently, I spoke with a friend who wondered if it is time to buy big banks and investment banks now that prices are far from their highs. Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns, and Morgan Stanley are all down more than 40 percent from their highs this year. Lehman Brothers and Citi are down more than 30 ...
More About: Stocks , Financial , Blind , Ugly , Blind Date
Top Foreign Holders of U.S. Treasury Securities and trends
2007-11-12 13:52:00
On October 25, I gave a short presentation on this web site about the August TICS data, in which I showed that foreigners were net sellers of U.S. securities for the first time that I have seen. While U.S. stocks were a major portion of the securities dumped by foreigners, I saw something else contribute ...
More About: Trends , Foreign , Securities , Treasury , Reign
Funny Video: Tokyo Hummer Owners
2007-11-02 15:07:00
One of my friends sent me a link to this Wall Street Journal video report on Hummer owners in Tokyo . There are some really funny quotes in the video. First, it is explained that “owners must go to great lengths to drive their Hummers down Tokyo’s famous jungle of narrow streets.” Then comes the first ...
More About: Video , Funny , Funny Video
No more temporary solutions from the Federal Reserve and politicians; What
2007-11-01 13:04:00
What do Citigroup, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Deutsche Bank, Barclays Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland have in common? All of these banks have requested and been granted a temporary exemption from Section 23A of the Federal Reserve Act (and Regulation W–dubya) since the middle of August. Citigroup, the gargantuan bank feeling a ton of ...
More About: Politicians , Solutions , Politic
I pulled the trigger on Frontier Oil Corporation today
2007-10-29 16:41:00
Last week, I mentioned that I would be starting a project researching stocks from the Magic Formula Investing list. I have researched eight companies from our list of fifty. I covered two companies on this website: Drax Group Plc (LSE: DRX) and Frontier Oil Corporation (NYSE: FTO). I promised that I would announce any transactions ...
More About: Today , Pull
Let Capitalism Work Or Become Insignificant
2007-10-29 14:58:00
On Tuesday, it was announced that Countrywide Financial, the largest mortgage lender in the United States, has decided to extend refinancing or modification offers on $16 billion in loans–82,000 borrowers–in order to obviate the inevitable problems that will come when the teaser rate period ends. Modifications typically involve a rate cut to prime rates. Given ...
More About: Work , Capitalism
Politics are not for the faint (or pure) of heart
2007-10-26 15:49:00
I complain about the media from time to time. Mostly, I complain about the cheerleading played by CNBC and the Fox Business block, but I am shifting my sites to politics today. I really don’t like to play politics on this blog. I care more about money and monetary policy (which, I suppose, is one ...
More About: Politics , Heart , Pure , Fain , Politic
The August TICS data just looked bad; no spinning this one positive
2007-10-25 14:23:00
In September, everyone became aware of the $45 billion decline in the Federal Reserve?s custodial holdings of foreign owned U.S. Treasuries. Most people implicated China and wondered if it was the beginning of the end for the dollar. I took the opposite position, suggesting that China was probably not as big a player in this ...
More About: Data , Spinning , Positive , August , Spinn
Do you feel poorer? If not, you must be Canadian
2007-10-24 14:35:00
I check my bank accounts every week. The numbers keep rising, but I have this sneaking suspicion that I am getting poorer. My equity portfolio has been charging ahead all year long. I should be ecstatic; but, I’m not. My problem is that I haven’t been drinking the American Kool-Aid and I don’t measure my ...
More About: Canadian , Feel , Adia
Frontier Oil Corporation (NYSE: FTO)
2007-10-23 15:52:00
Profile Frontier Oil Corp. (NYSE: FTO) is an energy company in the United States that refines crude oil and sells refined crude oil products wholesale. The company operates two main refineries in Wyoming and Kansas. There are 107,138,518 outstanding shares, giving Frontier a market cap of over $4 billion as of 19 October 2007. The current ...
More About: Corporation , Investing
Drax Group Plc (LSE: DRX)
2007-10-22 15:10:00
Profile Drax Group Plc (LSE:DRX) is a power generation (primarily coal) utility company in the United Kingdom that appears on the investingeuro.com list. Based on the 343,966,804 outstanding shares and the 19 October 2007 price of 623.5 pence, Drax has a market cap of over £4 billion. From the balance sheet, I noted that the book ...
More About: Investing
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