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Painful truth about high DOW
2007-12-09 08:58:00
Many Americans smile each time they see an increase in the equity value of their broker accounts due to the Dow making new highs month after month. This gain in wealth is an illusion second to none because there is one important number that is missing from monthly statements. It is the real value of the Dow after factoring in the collapse of the U.S. dollar global purchasing power parity index. What the American public sees each month is the value of the nominal Dow, which is an illusion of wealth. Let’s do a Dow “real money index” reality check. Simply take the Dow nominal value, which is what someone sees in his or her monthly statement and multiply it by the U.S dollar trade-weighted index. Reader, before we do this, please make sure you are sitting and prepared for a disturbing piece of reality. In 2000, the Dow top was 11,700 nominal x 1.24, which was the dollar trade-weighted index. This equals 14,508 global purchasing power parity (GPPP) points. In 2007, the Dow at 13,5...
More About: Truth , High , Ruth

Atheros Communications (ATHR): See you at $45!
2007-10-10 00:17:00
Elliott Analysis for normal volatility stock: click to zoom in 1) Wave#5 target = $45.52 2) current waves: Wave#1 (8%, fast) = DOWN Wave#2 (13%, moderate) = UP wave#5 (21%, normal) = UP 3) potentially, could retest MA(200)=$27.64, rather by shadow (if any) See you at $45! Also, you may want to take a look at the another, this time automatic, breakdown that is also overly optimistic, actually, like this:
More About: Communications

Broadcom Corp. (BRCM): Long Term Aspects and Today’s Downgrade
2007-09-27 06:46:00
I sold BRCM today (2007-09-26) at $37.15, after $7 gain. Interesting that the stock was not doing bad today, after the downgrade by an analyst. Sure I could wait, sit still and get better, but I feel like the stock is too stale, and in dynamic flux, the stock is not the best place where my money gonna work really hard, anyways. Now a lot of stocks are breaking up on very large volume, and I need cash to use the opportunties in better ways and in more receptive atmosphere. After all, the rate cut short-term euphoria, while it still lasts, gives you the ability to make $7 per stock in a matter of days, or at least, weeks. Even better if you buy calls on the relatively low volatility skews, of historically very volatile option contracts, with middle term expiration and in the money. 45% - 120% return in 2-3 weeks is real and not too dangerous if you set virtual loss stops to lock yourself in profits. Ok, back to our baby. Q-Stock Rank (see the chart below) is too low, only 40 out of ...
More About: Today , Broadcom , Aspects , Long , Term

Kids About Love
2007-09-10 00:16:00
Back in 2004-2005, a group of professionals asked some 4 to 8 year-olds what love means to them. The answers they got were so beyond their expectation and so deep sometimes that it is really amazing. So, Love is… “When my grandmother got arthritis, she couldn’t bend over and paint her toenails anymore. So my grandfather does it for her all the time, even when his hands got arthritis too. That’s love.” Rebecca - age 8 “When someone loves you, the way they say your name is different. You know that your name is safe in their mouth.” Billy - age 4 “Love is when a girl puts on perfume and a boy puts on shaving cologne and they go out and smell each other.” Karl - age 5 “Love is when you go out to eat and give somebody most of your French fries without making them give you any of theirs.” Chrissy - age 6 “Love is when my mommy makes coffee for my daddy and she takes a sip before giving it to him, to make sur...
More About: Kids

Sigma: Alternative Counting of Waves & Time Frames
2007-09-07 03:24:00
About Sigma again. We look at the alternative waves calculation, added to the mixture of different time frames, to complement the previous estimation. Check it out: Disregarding weekly fluctuations, all main waves are in clear positive trend. Sure, we don’t follow the stock moves on the very microlevel, because: 1) it does not make sense in this particular case 2) it is not about daytrading. The final length and final wave(s)/subwave(s) number(s) will cutout when we get more of price action. Whenever it goes, now, at the time being, all are just the fluctuations on this particular level and time frame (actually, just a NOIZE!). Therefore, it does not much affect the contour of the final estimation. Again, all MAIN waves are in positive trends, importantly.
More About: Time , Alternative , Waves , Wave

10 Reasons Apple did iPhone Price Cut
2007-09-07 01:54:00
From business2.com: 10 reason of iPhone Price Cut from $599 to $399, 68 days after product launch: 1. Sales are slowing, and a price drop will re-invigorate them. 2. Other smartphones are entering the market and a $399 price tag kicks those where it hurts. 3. iPhone is a classic platinum turkey — a high-end phone that sells a million units rapidly but then quickly loses momentum. 4. The new iPod touch was likely to undermine iPhone sales. 5. Apple early adopters would have paid any price. $600 was just short term profit maximization for the launch. 6. Apple has reached a milestone that can justify a price cut. Development costs have been recouped. (It’ll be a lot cheaper to produce the next million iPhones than the first, so Apple hasn’t given away its margin.) 7. iPod Touch and iPhone share certain parts, thus bringing manufacturing costs down for both products. 8. Apple promised AT&T the price cut if they could offer the iPod touch this holiday season. 9. If ...
More About: Iphone , Reasons

An ass of Ace and a gap in GAAP
2007-09-06 13:03:00
Ace Hardware discovers $154M Accounting Shortfall. Interestingly enough Ace’s directors said: Ace’s finance staff, seasoned management team, internal audit department and even the external auditors engaged by the board FAILED TO DETECT THIS ERROR as it built OVER THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS It is a big ga-a-ap with reality in the ledger books of the famous Ass (oh, pardon my French, Ace) Hardware company.

Sigma (SIGM): Elliott Waves Projections
2007-09-05 22:46:00
The smart pants have bought SIGM at least in her 20-ties, and BEFORE the recent gap up. Some people are worried about the last pull back, and consider it more than just the result of the market in down. As a matter of fact, SIGM is trading way below her real value and her price target, but, of course, her stochastics & other technicals are way too high (overbought). So, to continue making new highs, the stock needs to form the base of cup with handle, or something like that (for this type of stock). It takes time! The nervous investors and/or daytrader sell off, of course. The individuals with limited account need their money working ALL THE TIME, and they probably already sold at the peak of the very gap already. But they risk the possibility of the company to be acquired overnight, for example. Of course, we had insiders activity registered that made it impossible. But if takeover is hostile it can happen even after that. I’m not counting on any takeover, but this rare c...
More About: Sigma , Waves , Wave , Projection , Aves

MarketWatch about General Electric
2007-09-04 07:28:00
MarketWatch about General Electric : Our overriding position has been to remain cautious given the turmoil in the credit markets, the drop in housing prices, and the tightening in bank lending standards. In general, we continue to favor high-quality, large-cap companies in industries offering relative insulation from an expected slowdown in consumer spending (which represents nearly 70% of domestic GDP). Larger companies tend to have greater exposure to international markets while being less dependent on external sources of funding. Many of these companies also have established track records of successfully navigating through economic recessions. As industry leaders, most large companies have economic “moats” protecting their revenue streams and providing greater earnings visibility in difficult times. And finally, large-cap stocks have been underperforming small-caps for many years, providing more attractive valuations for the establishment of new positions. … Th...
More About: General Electric , Marketwatch

Follow-up to 10 stocks to watch for intraday play
2007-09-01 03:53:00
Follow-up to 10 stocks to watch for intraday play
More About: Watch , Stocks , Play

10 stocks to watch for Friday, 2007-08-31
2007-08-31 09:20:00
10 stocks for possible quick daytrading tomorrow>. Some of them should work, let’s check it out. Again, just for quick shooting, i.e. there is NO intention to keep any of them overnight, and especially during holidays at all.
More About: Watch , Stocks , Friday

Sigma (SIGM): after-market follow-up
2007-08-29 23:37:00
Note that the previous tech. analysis of today (2007-08-29) was written in 02:48PM, and now is 5:49PM, after market, and SIGM price is $44.00, in the estimated range (see my previous post of today). Also, as expected, the SEC just made available the: SECOND QUARTER RESULTS FORM 8-K REPORT Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, August 29, 2007
More About: Market , Sigma

Sigma (SIGM) before earnings (5PM ET today)
2007-08-29 21:09:00
Elliott Waves Analysis Point & Figure Analysis Middle-Term Target $42.60: Long-Term Target $53: Actually, the positive earning are rather sitting in the price already. Still, if the earnings includes the element of positive surprise, then the price could grow even more dramatically, because of short squeeze. After all, it takes shorts more than 4 days to cover:
More About: Today , Earnings , Sigma , Fore , Earning

Bank of America (BAC): Long Term Target $58-63 (follow-up call)
2007-08-29 08:28:00
Personally, I think Bank of America $2 billion investment into the mortgage lender Countrywide is not so bad idea. The question remains whether it was the really good or bad timing, in sense that BofA could use the market weakness even more for their advantage. But it’s another story. No doubt, BofA made a smart move for the long run. It’s not their target to please short-term traders that never keep their stocks more than couple days and/or weeks, anyways. I know that long-term play with BofA works, and not just because of fatty dividends. I’m back to review BofA technical indicators again. When I did the same in the recent past, BofA was in rather deep down, and some people really doubted it gonna jump up anytime soon again. But it did. BofA was deeply undervalued at that point, and the situation did not change much. Ok, back to our technical “fall from grace”, as follows: Elliott Waves Analysis: The above gives you VERY POSITIVE BUY SIGNAL. 5 (FIV...
More About: Bank of America , Call , Target , Long

Watching out for Healthcare Services Group (HCSG)
2007-08-29 06:48:00
HCSG was doing good today, 2007-08-28, and was not injured much at all by the falling market. Interesting, that market sagged after some “disappointment” in FED not cutting rates. Personally, I’m pretty satisfied by FED’s decision. FED should have something remaining in their arsenal. Especially, the element of unpredictability works the best. They already used this trick of the unexpected rate cut with great success that burnt a lot of evil “shorties” and hedge funds crooks by sending the most brash straight into the hell to burn or bled to death. The astronomical amounts of puts (especially the naked ones) expired useless in less than an hour! No easy walk! So, I hope FED can repeat the trick again. Even if they don’t, we can expect a bit less reckless dirty market manipulations for a while, because crooks still left aghast. I like FED having something up their sleeves in case the situation became much worse. Some analysts assume that any...
More About: Services , Healthcare , Watching , Group , Heal

Is LAN Airlines S.A. (LFL) too overvalued?
2007-08-26 21:05:00
16-Aug-2007: The famous air carrier LAN Airlines S.A. (LFL) based in Chile operating and dominating in Argentina, Peru and Ecuador, changed the ratio of its American Depositary Receipts (ADR) from one American Depositary Share (ADS) per five common shares to one ADS per common share. So, North American shareholders received four additional shares for each ADS held. LAN reported first-half profit up 34 percent to $128.7 million as company revenue for the period rose 13 percent to $1.6 billion. Today, another important document became available. 25-Jul-2007, Lan Airlines S.A. filed Form 6-K — REPORT OF FOREIGN PRIVATE ISSUER PURSUANT TO RULE 13a-16 OR 15d-16 UNDER THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934. So far, it is the best fresh info freely available. What is not free, and possibly interesting at least a little bit, that is a bunch of commercial reports from hungry analysts being waiting for a long time for the last SEC filing data to process and sell their “piece of wis...

Stocks Sitting in 60-day Channel
2007-08-26 09:06:00
Here: http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglanc e.php?FXI,KGC,OVTI,WDC,EXPE,HANS,PPC,HK,P CP,AEM|B|A12,26,9
More About: Stocks , Channel , Chan

Admirable Clip from “Big Nothing” Movie
2007-08-26 04:35:00
One of so called “neo noir” movies, directed by diabolically talented French-born film producer Jean-Baptiste Andrea (new names). By the way, the whole spirit somehow reminds the state of stock markets these days, with high volatility, unpredictability and continuous stream of tawdry tricks and “leverages” used by various hedge funds. Interesting to see how good Simon Pegg can hide his British accent. Only under active consideration you can reveal the rare moments him using fretful British phonemas. Alice Eve is not bad as a “sexy animal”, and adds to the set of characters, but not very plausible herself as a “teen girl”. Still, it’s by maestro design, and she is much more “noir” than anybody else in the group. But David Schwimmer is just awesome per my opinion, and totally authentic. The crying contrast between his and Alice’s character resolves in very amazing effects. Sometimes, in this buskin and the sock ...
More About: Movie , Clip

MSFT (Microsoft): Elliott Waves Analysis
2007-08-23 09:03:00
LT Target Range: $34.63 - $45.01 Click the above to zoom in
More About: Microsoft , Analysis , Waves , Wave , Aves

Old Generation and Life Saving Technology
2007-08-20 18:31:00
Demetri Sevastopulo, in his article US military in dogfight over drones (Financial Times), quotes a lack of UNIFIED COMMAND that makes the use of drones at the military field much less successful and effective than it could be. The people who really need to be making the decisions … are the very senior leadership in both the civilian and the military world, and yet you are talking about people who needed their grandkids to programme their VCRs. While Predator and Global Hawk drones cross the skies of Iraq and Afghanistan looking for insurgents or hunting for Osama bin Laden, thousands of kilometres away in Washington they have been dragged into a vicious turf battle.
More About: Technology , Life , Saving , Generation , Ology

Rate Cut Provides Just a Short Term Relief
2007-08-19 21:26:00
And as horrible as August has been, historically September is the worst time of the year for average monthly performance.
More About: Short-term , Relief , Short , Rate , Term

Barron’s: Shorting Cramer
2007-08-18 18:39:00
Barron’s Article: Shorting Cram er excerpts: PERFORMANCE A comprehensive and careful review of Cramer stock picks by Barron’s finds that his picks haven’t beaten the market When we asked Cramer and CNBC for their own records of Mad Money’s stock-picking performance, they had more excuses than a Tour de France cyclist dodging a blood test About Mad Money Picks: Count commissions and you would have been much better off in an index fund that simply tracks the market CNBC officials also said that viewers should buy Cramer’s picks a week after they’re aired. They said that the show is mainly educational, and not just about stock-picking. …It turns out that CNBC did its analysis incorrectly, and that the stocks beat the S&P by 0.4% in one month and 1.2% over two months. CNBC measured the stocks’ performance against the average performance of the S&P year-to-date, instead of against the performance of the S&P from the date ...
More About: Barron

If you hate telemarketers (as I do), watch & listen this hilarious vide
2007-08-18 02:17:00
How to treat Telemar keters. Hilarious ! Don’t miss!
More About: Watch , Hate , Listen

Markets manipulations and computer trading systems
2007-08-17 22:49:00
Manipulations are real. More they are an integral part of everyday’s routine for Market Makers, Stock Exchange Specialists. Also, it’s basically the definition of so called “leveraging” used by the majority of hedge funds. Happily, manipulations cannot sustain the all system test for a long period of time, and work mostly in relatively narrow time spikes. Earlier or later, the whole system self-pulls on the balanced state back. I think it is because of the natural laws (kind of info-entropy), i.e. exchangeability and dynamic self-balance of the trading systems & markets. Also, look at the interesting excerpt from the article “An Immoderate Query” in today’s Motley Fool: the enormous volume generated by computer-generated buying and selling by so-called “alpha quantitative” hedge funds out there, like the famous incredible imploding funds at Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS). If they have been moving the market, I think it’s wor...
More About: Computer , Markets , Trading , Systems , Manipulation

General Electric: One of the Best Stocks in Dangerous Market
2007-08-14 08:07:00
General Electric : Elliott Price Levels Forecast General Electric (GE): One of the Safest Stocks in a Dangerous Market 1. GE - the world’s 2nd largest company by market value, and the industrial, finance and media conglomerate 2. GE doubled its stock buyback program to $14 billion 3. GE plans to repurchase $12 billion by the end of the year 4. GE stock offers a generous 2.8% dividend yield 5. GE reported a 9.6% rise in 2nd QTR earnings with profits of $5.42 billion, or 53 cents a share, up from $4.95 billion or 48 cents a share a year ago. 6. GE revenue rose 12% to $42.3 billion. 7. GE Depts related to the oil, gas, aviation, energy, and commercial finance businesses did best this quarter. 8. GE gets rid of its subprime unit, WMC Mortgage, after the branch reported a $160 million loss. WMC Mortgage has dumped $3.7 billion of its subprime mortgage portfolio. 9. UBS Analytics: * rated the stock Buy * increased the target price from $45 to $47 9.3. note that the commerci...
More About: General , General Electric

AMSWA: rocket is triggered as predicted
2007-08-13 19:23:00
POTENTIAL Rocket Scan for 2007-08-09 found just one company, AMSWA, and today, 2007-08-13, AMSWA shut the rocket. It’s not the best rocket ever, of course, taking into account the poor market condition at whole, but the gap is clear.
More About: Gere , Predict

Opinion: Taking the Google cake
2007-08-13 19:17:00
Will Googl e Be Destroyed By Open Source Search Engines?
More About: Opinion , Cake , Taking

India: nonexistence & low quality of graduate education and research
2007-08-13 19:13:00
From Forbes’ article, India Has The Brains, But Where’s The Beef?: India is full of smart, highly-trained, English-speaking computer wizards, thanks to the legendary Indian Institutes of Technology. All it needs is decent “infrastructure”–code for airports, highways and the reliable supply of utilities–and its full potential is ready to be realized. Sound familiar? That’s the shibboleth that many Western executives and journalists buy into, fed by quick fact-finding trips and endlessly repeated media myths. India’s real infrastructure problem–with no solution in sight–is not airports or electricity; it is the virtual nonexistence of graduate education and research in information and other crucial technologies. Consider this for starters: The U.S. produces about 1,400 Ph.D.s in computer science annually and China about 3,000. By stark comparison, India’s annual computer science Ph.D. production languishes at roughly...
More About: Education , Research , Graduate , Quality

Geniuses Fail
2007-08-13 18:09:00
Financial Times, in its article “Hedge funds braced for more pain”, wrote: The much-heralded financial rocket scientists responsible for the explosion in complex mathematical trading strategies … (quantitative strategists, or “quants” as they are known) attempt to profit from pricing inefficiencies identified through mathematical models. These send buy and sell signals on small variations in price between different securities. One hedge funds manager said the average quantitative fund manager was down about 15 per cent in the first few days of August. “Nothing seems to be working. Previously uncorrelated factors have recently been falling with the same pace, leaving investors with very few places to hide,” said Citigroup analysts in a report to clients last week. Their mathematical models rely on past trading patterns to predict how particular securities will perform in the future if other securities, say, fall in price. But their models are unlikely...

If Tomorrow Market is Down Again, Buy some QID!
2007-08-10 06:49:00
If Tomo rrow Market gonna be ugly again, then buy UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) Index ETF. For example,today, 2007-08-09, this particular ETF Index gained 6.11%, i.e. $2.65 up to $46.00, and got extra 0.54%, i.e. $0.25 up to $46.25 after market hours. Therefore, if you hedge a little bit, by buying at least 300 stocks (note that it was pretty obvious that markets will be open pretty weak, because all media declared at least 2-3 hours before the session started about that), then you pocket around $800 to 4:00PM ET. So, check it out for yourself tomorrow. Friday, at least at the market close, usually is selling day. You could repeat the above focus, and, if chances are pretty high, to increase the amount of QID stocks you gonna buy. Just make sure you set up stop loss orders, or even trailing stop, to lock in profits, in case of brisk reverse of the market in the middle of the day.
More About: Some , Morrow