DCweather DCweather DCweather provides interesting weather discussion and analysis for the Mid Atlantic and greater Washington, DC metropolitan region Articles
Oppressive. Hot. Brutal.
2007-02-19 20:31:02 The region is baking once again as the sweltering heat wave of 2006 rolls on. Check out temperatures across the East Center United States (see image at right). Air temperatures in most locations have soared into the upper 90s...and the harsh thing is--those aren't even the heat index temperatures. Factoring in the humidity in the air (currently running at around 35-45%), it feels like it's well over 100 degrees in many locations.Washington, DC may possibly break its record for highest temperature today--100 degrees--but the thermometer needs to jump up two more degrees very quickly, before the sun begins its decent. At 4PM, the temperature at Reagan National weather a stifling 99 degrees with a heat index of 106.Elsewhere around the region, the records for both Dulles and BWI will likely remain intact. The high temperature at BWI looks like it will top out around 98 degrees, and Dulles should top out around 97 degrees.Relief is coming...A cold front currently draped across the Upp... More About: Press , Ruta , Brut , Brutal
Old Man Winter Returns
2007-02-19 20:31:02 After over a month of above average temperatures, a massive arctic front has finally swept through the region, bringing temperatures down below average. Most computer models show Washington getting up to about 40 degrees or so tomorrow afternoon, which would put the high temperature below normal for the first time this month.After the cloud debris associated with this cold front push east out of the region, a large dome of high pressure should move into the region for 24-36 hours, yielding mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions Wednesday and into the evening. Once the high moves offshore, a coastal storm is expected to develop about 200 to 300 miles east of the eastern shore which has the potential to spread rain and snow showers into the metro region Thursday night and early Friday morning.Things get a bit more interesting next week as signs point towards another low developing in the vicinity of the Appalachians next Sunday night and Monday. Temperature profiles are iffy at t... More About: Winter , Inter , Return , Turn
Get Ready for An Arctic Blast
2007-02-19 20:31:02 Snowfall around the region was fairly light with this recent storm. Most locations received between a trace and 2 inches of snow with a thick layer of ice to top it all off. What snow and ice did melt today will refreeze slowly tonight, as temperatures fall only a degree or two below freezing by morning. However, any secondary roads that have not been cleared yet will pose a problem tomorrow morning as ice freezes within tire treads. (I'm currently thinking areas south of DC will not dip below freezing, but just touch the 32 degree mark overnight).Our attention then turns to a new system developing off the eastern Seaboard during the middle of next week. At this point, most models show a low pressure center forming about 400 to 500 miles off shore, which would limit any precipitation potential around the region. However, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a few flurries or light snow showers Thursday evening and into early Friday.Above: Snowfall Map for the January 21-22... More About: Read , Last , Blast , Arctic , Ready
Exciting Times--Potential for a Major East Coast Storm
2007-02-19 20:31:02 Monday Evening Update:18z Numerical Model Guidance run this afternoon would seem to favor a slightly colder scenario for the DC metropolitan region. Previous runs turned precipitation over to plain rain Wednesday afternoon as a warm nose of surface air shot northeastward. However, the 18z GFS run was slightly colder around the region for the duration of this storm, certainly a good sign for winter-weather lovers.Still, for those of you who enjoy snow, you're probably going to have to wait for the next storm (if there is one). The snow currently falling across the area is associated with an upper level disturbance out ahead of the main weather system currently sitting in northern Texas .Very little in the way of accumulation is expected tonight in the immediate metro area. Temperatures will slowly fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s.----Previous Post-------Potential For Significant Snowstorm in Mid Atlantic:After a brief hiccup in the numerical modeling of this latest winter... More About: Time , Storm , East , Citi , Stor
Chilly weather to Remain
2007-02-19 20:31:02 Cold, Windy, and Still shoveling out:Even with the region's latest snowstorm long gone (in fact, it's become quite a snowstorm for Nova Scotia and eastern Quebec), bone-chilling weather lingers across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Winds gusting upwards of 30 mph in some locations are creating wind chills in the low to mid teens, with below zero readings in extreme western Maryland and southwestern PA.Due to the significant amount of sleet and freezing rain that accompanied this week's storm, temperatures in the low to mid 30s and an increasing sun elevation have failed to do much in the way of melting the wintry mess. This has forced many local school systems to shut down for the third day in a row, much to the delight of students around the region. Look for temperatures to moderate somewhat tomorrow afternoon under partly cloudy conditions. High temperatures should reach into the upper 30s and lower 40s across the area, with the exception of areas in northern Maryland, whe... More About: Weather , Main , Illy , Hill , Chill
Technical Thoughts
2007-02-19 20:31:02 Below are my technical thoughts from last night. Little has changed in my thinking with respect to next week's potential winter storm:Twenty-Four day 500mb upper air analysis from 00Z February 2 reveals a weather pattern dominated by a large positive PNA ridge that, at some points, stretched almost all the way to the North Pole. A massive polar vortex has remained relatively persistent over southern Canada, driving very low atmospheric heights into the CONUS. Currently, 500mb height anomalies are around -350 to -360 meters over the Canadian Maritimes. The aforementioned positive PNA ridge has slowly been trending towards a more neutral state as successive upper lows rotate towards the Pacific Northwest. Nonetheless, it appears as if near normal to slightly below normal temperatures will remain the norm over the northeastern portion of the country for at least the next week or so as the PV spins over eastern Canada. 12Z Ensemble GFS/MREF members reveal very similar solu... More About: Technical , Tech , Thoughts , Thought , Technic
Happy Easter
2007-02-19 20:31:02 The Next Few Days:It's been over three weeks since I've made a post, so I figured it was high time I made another one.Very thin bands of rain showers have developed over the region in response to energy upstream in the Ohio River valley diving southeastward over the Appalachian Mountains. These showers are part of the same weather system that has brought over 40 tornadoes to the Midwest over the last three days.Scattered light showers will continue overnight and into tomorrow morning before upper level energy swings around the base of another upper low near Newfoundland. Depending on how the said energy moves around the upper low to the north, showers may continue through the day tomorrow, or come to an end around 8 or 9 AM north of DC. Whatever happens, however, bring the umbrella along if you're heading out anytime tomorrow.By Monday evening, drier surface and midlevel air will slide into the region, scouring out any remaining showers and cloud cover. More About: Easter , East , Happy , Aster
Drought Woes Increasing
2007-02-19 20:31:02 Dry Stretch of Weather:Over the past few weeks, an excessive drought has developed over the a majority of the East Coast, and weather records indicate the last time measurable precipitation fell over the region was about 20 days ago on March 2nd (which registered only .03 inches of liquid at National).The Climate Prediction Center's "Drought Monitor" is registering abnormally dry conditions over much of coastal New England and the Mid Atlantic, which severe drought is expanding to the southwest. (That would probably explain why my backyard is dominated by a malignant brown grass.)While sporadic chances of rain and snow are in the forecast over the next two or three days, coverage should be minimal, and precip totals would likely amount to less than a tenth of an inch.That said, expect a 30ish percent chance of a sprinkle or two tomorrow, with a little better chance of precip on Saturday, especially east of the I-95 corridor.Dust-Bowl out westAnd while it may seem like our mini-dro... More About: Asin , Sing
Winter Storm 2006
2007-02-19 20:31:02 Mother nature is finally re-paying us for the abominable January blowtorch!! After a period of light drizzle/flurries through most of the day, everything switched over to snow about an hour and a half ago as colder air finally made it into the region. You will not see any accumulation on the roadways/pre-treated sidewalks until after 6 or 7 tonight. However, after that, all heck breaks loose as low pressure currently situated in Georgia explodes as it emerges over the Atlantic Ocean.The heaviest and steadiest precipitation (snow) will move into the region between 11PM and 6AM tomorrow morning as the low really gets cranking over the benchmark (40N, 70W--winter storms that pass over this area are often the most dubious snowfall producers for the East Coast).Below is an image from a forecasting product known as BUFKIT, (BUffalo's forecasting toolKIT; developed by meteorologists in Buffalo, NY) which lets forecasters objectively analyze atmospheric forecasts from various models, li... More About: Winter , Inter , Storm , Stor
Clearing Out in D.C.
2007-02-19 20:31:02 After the one of the largest snowstorm in Washington, D.C. history, we're finally returning to normalcy in the region. Over 330,000 customers lost power due to this storm, in part due to the high winds and hefty snow accumulations on powerlines.Forecast Verification. Storm Underforecast and mind-boggling snowfall rates:Yes, we all know the story: this storm was underforecast by most, if not all professional meteorologists and hobbyists around the region, and the entire Northeast for that matter. As snow fell Saturday evening and failed to accumulate on most surfaces, a fierce apprenhension developed amongst forecasters, and the naysayers began babbling about "busted forecasts."By 10pm, most meteorologists had dropped their snowfall totals down to 3-6 or 4-8 inches after seeing the snow melt on contact. I decided to keep my 6-10 inch call (after upping the totals Saturday afternoon). But never did I anticipate the snowfall rates we experienced over-night Saturday. Rates of 1-2 inche... More About: Ring , Clear , Clearing
Winter Retreats; Winter storm Photos
2007-02-19 20:31:02 Update:Models have trended southward with the system for Monday/Tuesday. There is still a small chance for flurries around the region Monday afternoon, but that's about it. If you thought the weather today was sweet, just look ahead to tomorrow. Temperatures should soar into the upper 50s/lower 60s under partly cloudy conditions as a midlevel ridge sets up shop along the Eastern Seaboard.Clouds will increase out ahead of a strong cold front during the morning hours on Friday, which will aid in keeping temperatures down somewhat, although, strong southwesterly winds will effectively neutralize this increase in cloud cover by advecting warmer air from the southern states. Expect highs to average out in the upper 50s.Temperatures over this President's Day weekend will drop of significantly, from the upper 50s into the lower and mid 30s. After Saturday, things get a bit interesting. A frontal boundary will likely stall out south of the District, setting up a strong "cold dome" ov... More About: Photo , Photos , Winter , Inter , Storm
More cold air to Come
2007-02-19 20:31:02 After a fairly prolonged period of moderate to heavy snow this morning, all precipitation has ceased around the region, and we will be left with mostly cloudy conditions over night. I have to admit, however, the snow was a nice little treat (at least for those of us not traveling on the highway).By the time you wake up tomorrow morning, temperatures will have slipped into the mid 30s and skies will have begun clearing from west to east.Massive Cool Down:While the temperatures over the next two or three days will by and large be above average, a massive arctic intrusion (likely the most intense of the winter season) will make a move on the region Sunday and Monday, as a large dome of high pressure slides southeastward from the Canadian Provinces. I think GFS forecast high temperatures Monday through Wednesday are too low given the strength and position of this incoming polar vortex-which is basically a region of excessively below normal atmospheric heights, and below normal temper... More About: Cold , Come , More
Sunday evening Update
2007-02-19 20:31:02 Temperatures today were at their lowest since the 12th thanks to biting northwesterly winds drawing in chilly arctic air from Canada. Officially, the high at National peaked at 36 degrees after a low of 27 early this morning.Tonight and Tomorrow:Surface winds will continue to gradually diminish overnight as an area of high pressure slides into the Southeast. Temperatures tonight will drop into the upper teens out to the west, and lower 20s around the city.Tomorrow, expect off and on cloudiness through the day as an area of upper level energy gets spit out south central Canada. Any precipitation (and it would be snow) should stay on the western sides of the Appalachians, but light snow showers cannot be ruled out overnight Monday. A stark warm-up is in sight Wednesday and Thursday as southwesterly winds at the surface and aloft pull warmer air into the region. Mid to upper 60s are not out of the question Thursday. More About: Sunday , Update , Evening
Windy Weekend Weather - Spring in Sight?
2007-02-19 20:31:02 Today was just one of those days when you either wanted to be inside drinking some hot chocolate and watching a little basketball, or bundled-up outside enjoying the crystal clear skies. For those that chose the latter route, there was no denying the fact that it was kind of windy today. Gusts to 30 or 40 mph were not uncommon, which brought the wind chill down around freezing for most of the day. A high temperature of 47 will go in the books for Washington, DC which is about 5 degrees below normal.Tonight and Tomorrow:Wind s will subside somewhat tonight, although it will still remain breezy. Temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 20s under clear skies, while wind chills plummet into the teens.Tomorrow, winds will once again increase towards sunrise (Gusts 15-25 mph) as temperatures rise into the upper 40s.High cirrus clouds should begin overspreading the region late tomorrow afternoon and towards nightfall as a clipper-like system drops down from Canada.How we stand on Sn... More About: Weather , Spring , Weekend , Ring
Evening Update
2007-02-19 20:31:02 Tonight and Tomorrow:A small 30 or 40 percent chance of showers will persist through the night a developing low pressure system throws a warm front our way. By early afternoon, the said warm front should have pushed north of the region, conveniently placing us in the warm sector, as winds swing around to the southwest, and draw warm, tropical air into the Mid Atlantic. High temperatures tomorrow will likely break 60, and a few readings around 65-69 wouldn't be too surprising.FridayBy Friday morning, a cold front will near the Appalachian Mountains, and the chance of showers (and a few thunderstorms) will increase once again. Any showers/thunderstorms that manage to develop will be few and far between, which is why precip chances are relatively low (around 30 or 40 percent).Image: Precip Forecast from the MM5 Model valid Friday afternoon More About: Update , Evening
Cold and Dry--Two Words That Don't Go Together
2007-02-19 20:31:02 5 Day OutlookTonight:Variable cloudiness tonight as a very weak upper level disturbance slips through the region. There's a very slim chance (something like 25 or 30%) that a few light snow showers stumble into the region later tonight. No accumulation anticipated. Temperatures by sunrise tomorrow will be in the upper 20s/lower 30s.Wednesday: Mainly sunny conditions expected with a slight increase in cloudiness towards evening. Highs will climb towards 50 degrees.Thursday:Mainly cloudy, especially before noon as low pressure organizes and spreads northeast form the Ohio River Valley. Showers will remain likely until mid afternoon Thursday. High temperatures should manage to break into the upper 50s (possibly hitting 60) before a cold front races through overnight.It will likely be a bit breezy Thursday afternoon as the cold front nears the Metro Region.Friday:Breezy conditions during the afternoon Friday, and high temperatures will likely remain in the mid to upper 40s.Satur... More About: Word , Words , Cold , Hat , Together
Wow, It's Kind of Hot
2007-02-19 20:31:02 Weather RecordDid you think it was warm yesterday? Well, a record high of 78 degrees was set today at Reagan National Airport, breaking the previous record of 77 set back in 1964.Tonight and Tomorrow:Clouds will continue to stream in from the north and west as the sun sets, associated with a diving Canadian trough. Low temperatures should remain in the lower 50s for the most part as daytime radiation gets trapped under the cloud cover. A small, 20 or 30 percent chance of an isolated shower will persist through the night.Tomorrow, a warm front will lift north of the region, allowing the temperatures to once again soar past 70. Any showers (or thunderstorms) that develop tomorrow should be few and far between, but be aware there will be a small chance of showers tomorrow afternoon.Is Winter really over?I have been cautious to post the "winter cancel" messages even with the prospect of 70+ degree weather for an extended period of time. Lo and behold, the GFS, NOGAPS and Canadian m... More About: Wow
Winter 'Aint Over
2007-02-19 20:31:02 A reminder of Winter A weak wave of upper level energy will zip overhead tonight and tomorrow, which should spread rain showers into the area. After midnight or so, the surface should have cooled sufficiently to allow snow showers to dust the region with March's first snowfall. Accumulations will mostly be confined to grassy and elevated surfaces (the roads should remain fine).Another, more intense area of low pressure should make an appearance later next week. Surface temperatures will once again be marginal for accumulating snowfall, but it's interesting we can go from sunny, 80 degree days, to snowy, 40 degree days in less than a week.Electric Bill Woes:As 9 News reports on its website: "For Marylanders, Summer Could Be Hot, Dark And Expensive," tensions between lawmakers and electric company's have begun to strain. Pepco is reporting:Due to significant increases in the cost of fuels used to generate electricity, the average monthly electric bill for Maryland residential ... More About: Inter , Over
Thoughts of Snow Douse Spring Fever
2007-02-19 20:31:02 Spring arrives at 1:26 this afternoon (when something called the vernal equinox occurs), but with cloudy skies and cool temperatures, spring fever will be put on hold for awhile. A developing storm system to our southwest will continue sliding northeastward through today and tonight.Temperatures should fall into the lower 30s before precipitation moves into the region tomorrow morning. Snow showers will progress across the region in a southwest to northeast fashion between 7 and 10 AM.Time permitting, I may be able to get a snowfall map out later today, but don't count on it. Because temperatures over the past few days have been sitting in the upper 40s/near 50, road temperatures are well above freezing, which should inhibit snowfall accumulation on the major arteries. However, secondary roads will likely become slick through the afternoon, but snowfall accumulations should stay under 1 or 2 inches on the back roads.The NWS seems to have a good handle on this situation, and explain... More About: Spring , Thoughts , Thought , Ring
Clipper drops Snow; Rain is the next Threat
More articles from this author:2007-02-19 20:31:02 Potential Weather Hazard:A powerful storm system is expected to develop in the Midwest by next weekend, and will likely bring heavy rainfall to the region early next week. Tonight and Beyond:After a nice period of moderate snow earlier this evening associated with a Clip per system, skies will begin to clear, allowing temperatures to dip into the mid and upper teens. Gusty northwest winds will combine with the cold surface temperatures to produce wind chill values in the single digits.Tomorrow, mostly sunny skies and diminishing winds will accompany high temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees to the south. Winds overnight Monday will then turn to the southwest, ushering in moisture and warmer temperatures ahead of a developing weak storm system that will pass to our north on Wednesday.Rain showers should begin to overspread the immediate metro region between 2PM Tuesday afternoon, and 8PM in the evening. Showers will continue off and on through the night, before taperin... More About: The N , Next , Snow 1, 2, 3 |
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