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Please sir, can we have some more?
2007-05-12 12:41:00
If you read the Government of Wales Act, really read it, you get the sense that the evolution of the assembly into a law-making body is a practical inevitability. In fact, you get the sense that the legislative purgatory in which the institution currently finds itself is ludicrously arbitrary. When a child begs and begs for an ice cream, you don't snatch it away before it gets a chance to eat the cone.Much depends, of course, on how the assembly deals with its present extension in powers. But given the cross-party will for an assembly which creates proper 'acts', and which does so independently of the Secretary of State, I would be surprised if this wasn't put to a referendum before the next full term begins.If anything, the debate over independence in Scotland has made people realise quite how limited our devolved agreement is. Even Northern Ireland out-powers us (though it must be said that ill-feeling in the province is nothing compared to the troubled relationship between ce...
More About: Have , More , Please , Lease , Ease

Housekeeping
2007-05-11 12:07:00
Thought I'd do a bit of post-election spring cleaning. There's been movement in the sidebar, with some candidate blogs moving up to become AM blogs (OK, just the one) and others disappearing altogether.I think it's unfortunate, incidentally, that certain candidates and ejected AMs have decided to delete their blogs. Blogging is, after all, a conversation. And when you're having a chat with someone and it doesn't go your way, you don't punch their lights out and tell them to forgot everything you've ever told them. I would have preferred to see those blogs preserved as relics of the 2007 election campaign. They might have made interesting reading in twenty years time.Never mind, we are never short of new blogs entering the fray. I am now linking to Thoughts of Oscar, Glas, New Welsh Right, Matt Wardman, Llanelli Political Journal, Cascittuni, Mynydd Llwydiarth and View from the Glen. As ever, if you're not on the list, do get in touch. Good luck with it.There are no new Labou...
More About: Keep , Housekeeping , Ping , Ouse

PLAID BRACED FOR DIFFICULT RYDER
2007-05-10 10:55:00
Plaid Cymru activists are plotting to remove the party's only list representative in North Wales to pave the way for Dafydd Wigley to return to the assembly. Despite polling over 50,000 votes on the regional list and taking four of the 13 seats available in the region, many were dissappointed by the way the campaign was conducted. A former Plaid Cymru candidate who stood for election in a North Wales constituency on May 3rd has told this blog that Ms Ryder "will be asked by senior party members in North Wales to stand aside in favour of Wigley." The candidate, who did not wish to be named said: "If she chooses not to she may face an internal party investigation into her conduct in the period before the election and afterwards. It will be made clear to her she does not command the support of the party membership or of the senior activists she needs to be able to do her job properly."The controversy centers upon what Ms Ryder is alleged to have told activists in Rhuthun, part of the ...
More About: Plaid , Diff

Maes-e ar gau
2007-05-10 02:29:00
Erthygl 10 o'r Confensiwn Ewropeaidd ar Hawliau Dynol (wedi addasu ar gyfer y we):"Mae gan bawb yr hawl i ryddid mynegiant (Ar wahan i bobl sydd am wneud sylw ar maes-e). Bydd yr hawl hon yn cynnwys rhyddid i gael barn ac i gael a rhoi gwybodaeth a syniadau heb ymyriad gan awdurdod cyhoeddus (Ar wahan i'r bobl sy'n rheolu mae-e) a heb ystyried ffiniau (Ar wahan i ffiniau maes-e). Ni fydd yr Erthygl hon yn atal Gwledydd rhag pennu gofyniad i drwyddedu mentrau darlledu, teledu neu sinema."Dim ond eisiau mynegi barn ydw i...

You, my friends, signify nothing
2007-05-07 01:08:00
I'm so sorry to have to tell you this... But you, my friends, signify nothing. That's the message from Rhondda AM Leighton Andrews. Returning to his normal blog, the man who is now in possession of one of the largest Labour majorities in Wales has given the following appraisal of the Welsh political blogosphere:I wasn't that impressed with the so-called 'Welsh blogosphere' during the campaign...Too many blogs, including this one, seemed more interested in gossip and rumour. When that spreads to the BBC, it's bad news. The Beeb should apply the same standards to its blogs as to the rest of its news coverage. I do agree with this one that the absence of competition in the Welsh news media gives more opportunity for bloggers, but having now caught up with some of the blogging from election night itself, it seems to have been largely based on rumours which were being broadcast on the mainstream media anyway. Welsh bloggers need better sources if they are going to make waves...To m...
More About: Friends , Nothing , Sign , Ends , Thing

Sunday lunch coalition update
2007-05-06 13:49:00
We've just learnt a lot more about what sort of shape the government of Wales might take. Thanks to the BBC, of course.Liberal Democrats aren't keen on a coalition with Labour (no matter what their leader thinks). Back at you, say Labour, who aren't keen on a coalition with the Liberal Democrats either. Neither are the unionist wing of the party sold on a deal with Plaid. Merthyr AM Huw Lewis said he was personally opposed to any outcome which involved Plaid ministers in cabinet.Step forward Lord Dafydd Elis Thomas with yet another option: an 'agreement' between Plaid and Labour in which Plaid AMs abstain on key votes to stop the government from collapsing. What Dafydd-El didn't say was that Plaid would demand a big prize in exchange for sanctioning such a deal. A referendum on further devolution by 2011 springs to mind.Bloody hell, he's only gone and read this blog between finishing the Politics Show and appearing on S4C's Maniffesto programme. Speaking in Welsh, he said th...
More About: Lunch , Sunday , Update , Coal , Coalition

Auf Wiedersehen Mike
2007-05-06 01:16:00
I am no Peter Snow. But I shall now use simple statistics to demonstrate how Mike German has fared as Liberal Democrat leader since 1999. His days are numbered in numbers:1999 6 seats2003 6 (=)2007 6 (=)On a graph, that performance would look something like this: ----------------------------------------- --------------------------It bears more than a passing resemblance to a flat line. That's why we call it flatlining.In general, politicians like this line to go up. That means they are making progress. If the line doesn't go up, that means they are not making progress. If they are not making progress, people start looking around for alternatives. For the Welsh Lib Dems, the search has begun.As you can tell from the numbers above, the Lib Dems only have six assembly members. Three of them are agitating for a change of leader, one of them is keeping quiet (because she's the person they are agitating on behalf), another is staying loyal to Mike ...
More About: Welsh Liberal Democrats

101 ways to prop up a 'failed Labour administration'*
2007-05-05 13:53:00
Peter Black, newly re-elected Lib Dem AM for South Wales West, knows exactly what he is doing.Yesterday's blog post got the ball rolling. 'It is clear that we now need a fresh approach and a radical re-think,' he wrote. For 'radical re-think' read 'leadership contest,' I responded. He had opportunities to deny this both on my blog and on Radio Wales. He chose not to do so.And today, he's at it again: 'My instincts are that the Welsh Liberal Democrats do not have to be the deal-makers in this process. We have our own issues to sort out first around where we are going as a party and what sort of image we project to the Welsh public.'It's now acknowledged that the leaders of Lib Dem councils are not keen on a Lab-Lib pact. Their long-term strategy is based on undermining Labour, not propping it up. In addition, one third of the Lib Dem assembly group have now spoken out against a Labour coalition. OK, so that only adds Eleanor Burnham to the mix (so far), but that's the Lib...
More About: Government , Welsh Assembly Election 2007 , Plaid Cymru , Ieuan Wyn Jones

Winners and losers
2007-05-04 16:13:00
Bugger. You just knew it was going to happen, didn't you? After all that hype about it being the most closely fought election ever, it was inevitable that the result itself would conspire to be as clear as mud (mixed up with a bit of boot polish for good measure).Lib Dems: The big losers of the night. Sure, they consolidated in certain areas and have a few second-placed platforms to build on for next time. But for this strategy to work, it had to be accompanied by list gains. It wasn't. To win no additional seats has to be seen as a failure. South Wales West AM Peter Black has already written on his blog that "it is clear we now need a fresh approach and a radical re-think as to where we are going and how we sell ourselves, our policies and our philosophy to the Welsh electorate." Sounds to me like the prelude to a leadership contest. In which case, Brecon AM Kirsty Williams would surely be favourite. Crucially, a change of hands at the top would make a Lab-Lib coalition easier to...
More About: Welsh Assembly Election 2007 , Winners , Winner , Loser , Losers

Election 2007 in words and numbers
2007-05-04 09:52:00
Scottish people seem to have got terribly confused between numbers and letters. Bless them. That's slowed things down up north.Here in Wales, the picture is much clearer. And it looks something like this:Constiuency gainsLabour:Wrexham, from IndependentPlaid:Aberconwy, from LabourLlanelli, from LabourConservatives:Cardiff North, from LabourClwyd West, from LabourPreseli, from LabourCarmarthen West, from LabourRegional VoteNorth Wales:CON 2 (=), PC 1 (=), LD 1 (=)South Wales East:PC 2 (+1), CON 1 (-1), LD 1 (=)Mid & West Wales: LAB 2 (+2), CON 1 (-2), PC 1 (=)South Wales Central (probable):PC 2 (=), CON 1 (=), LD 1 (=)South Wales West (probable):PC 2 (=), LD 1 (=), CON 1 (=)Total seats:LAB 26 (-3), PC 15 (+2), Con 11 (=), LD 7 (+1), IND 1 (-1)* or PC 14, CON 12 depending on South Wales West regional.Likely coalition:Lab-Lib most likely. But the Lib Dems would have to sell this to their members. They may make demands Labour are unwilling to deliver. One possible outcome is that Jenny...
More About: Words , Welsh Assembly Election 2007 , Election , Numbers , Number

Glyn, Goodbye and Good Luck
2007-05-04 09:05:00
From inside the BBC's election hub there has been universal cross-party, cross-media sadness that Glyn Davies has been the unfortunate victim of the Conservatives' success in the Mid and West Wales region. It's a sentiment sure to be echoed in Plaid, Labour and Lib Dem HQ. There cannot have been a more respected politician in the Senedd during the last four years.Gaining Preseli was always on the cards for the Conservatives. But Carmarthen West was an outside shot. It should have been Plaid's. It wasn't, and the Tories paid dearly on the list.Glyn's blog and his attitude towards politics in general are a credit to his profession. Indeed, Glyn's honesty and frankness set him apart from his peers. Even on the last day of campaigning he stayed true to his principles and would not speak ill of the Polish immigrants in his constituency in order to earn a few cheap, slimy votes.Glyn, you will be missed. And I sincerely hope you continue to blog. As long as it's not about gardening.
More About: Welsh Assembly Election 2007 , Good , Goodbye , Luck , Good Luck

Not a Labour meltdown but a definite thaw
2007-05-04 07:29:00
Good Morning, Bore Da! If you've been following all night, imagine I'm saying that in a Berkshire accent.Top lines: Labour get almost half the seats with less than a third of the vote.There is a Cameron effect. The Tories have picked up an extra four constituencies in Wales and came very close in three others.Plaid have pushed on. This was a professional campaign, with clearly defined goals. With the exception of Carmarthen West, they were achieved. For the Lib Dems this was an election for consolidation. They are now well-placed for 2011.BNP perform worryingly well - scoring over 5% of the vote on the North Wales regional list.But, Plaid elect the first ethnic minority assembly member - Mohammad 'Oscar' Asghar in South Wales East. Good for him. He's a great dancer too.No sensational returns for Dafydd Wigley and Ron Davies.At the time of writing (6.30am) there's a third recount in the Vale of Glamorgan. Labour are apparently ahead by 82 votes.This has been a Labour capitulati...
More About: Welsh Assembly Election 2007 , Down

RESULTS THREAD
2007-05-04 03:13:00
Vale of Glamorgan EXCLUSIVE: Second recount in the Vale of Glamorgan. And cabinet minister Jane Hutt is behind. This is a loss that Labour will struggle to make up elsewhere. One to watch...EXCLUSIVE: BNP are going to be the FIFTH placed party on the regional list. Staggering. In Wrexham they've polled over 9%. It's pulled down in other areas so they won't get an assembly member. But they are by now by far the strongest minority party.Wrexham: So as the former Presiding Officer Dafydd Elis Thomas romps home, his sparring partner and Deputy, John Marek loses out in Wrexham. I think this is my first incorrect prediction. Bugger. Labour GAIN from Ind.Rhondda: Leighton Andrews holds for Labour. Another leadership contender is still in there. How long before the plotting begins?Brecon: For my readers down under. Kirsty Williams polls over 50% of the vote, increasing the Lib Dems' share. Definitely one for the future. Perhaps the not so distant future.Preseli Pembrokeshire: Tories NEE...
More About: Results , Thread , Result

Lib Dem update: 'we're set for second place'
2007-05-04 03:06:00
After all that fuss about Newport East, Lib Dems are now saying they are set for second in Newport East, Monmouth, Swansea East and West. And despite a huge effort, second in Ceredigion too.We got all excited about the prospect of a Lib Dem constituency gain. Doesn't look like it's going to happen. Still, they're in with a shout for a couple of regionals.
More About: Welsh Assembly Election 2007 , Update , Second , Place , Econ

ISLWYN: FIRST RESULT
2007-05-04 03:00:00
Kevin Etheridge (IND) 6,665Irene James (LAB) 8,883Mark McGuire (LD) 1,135Alan Pritchard (PC) 5,084Paul Williams (CON) 1,797Tame start to proceedings. You'll note that we predicted this one a long time ago.BUT. Last time this was a majority of around 8,000. Now it's just over 2,000. That's a drop of 18% (or 27% since the General Election).Unfortunately, I don't think Islwyn is a seat we can realistically take as a microcosm of the way Wales will vote. More to come...
More About: Welsh Assembly Election 2007 , First , Result

The very latest predictions
2007-05-04 02:26:00
- S4C are apparently calling NEATH the possible surprise story of the night. You won't be surprised to hear that Plaid insiders have been telling me this for ages. They even persuaded Dafydd Wigley to have a walk around in the town centre. Plaid are saying they've probably won the election day vote. But the postal votes should still see Labour through.- Bridgend update. Tories say it's "very close".- ABERCONWY UPDATE: From Tory candidate Dylan Jones-Evans. He says he still has no idea which way it will go. Labour looks to be out of it and the Lib Dems (as expected) are non-existent. Still all to play for then, but I hear Plaid are very optimistic.- Some of you are asking about the Rhondda. Expert analysis from the Beeb's Guto Thomas is that after Burberry only God could beat Leighton. Well, he didn't actually say that. I made it more dramatic. But still, you get the gist.- Bridgend looking dodgy. Who'll be the next leader of the Labour party if Carwyn Jones doesn't make it th...
More About: Welsh Assembly Election 2007 , Predictions , Test , Late , The V

Berkshire????
2007-05-04 02:12:00
Doesn't Huw Edwards know I hark from the rolling hills of Merthyr?Nuff said.*An email tells me that it may not be clear in the studio that I am simply relaying comments and emails from visitors to my blog. Apparently it seems like I'm accusing Huw Edwards of accent fraud. No way, I think it's lovely.
More About: Welsh Assembly Election 2007 , Berk , Berkshire

Five minute first past the post quiz
2007-05-04 01:59:00
Hmm. Quiz zes are notoriously difficult to pull off on blogs because you just end up copying each other's answers.So, here's the deal. It's called a five minute first past the post quiz, because you have to wait until five minutes after the post time to publish your answers. Then, it's a free for all and the first commenter with a complete set of answers is the winner. Unless it goes on for ages. In which case I'll penalise you for every five minutes you delay. There, it's simple!Prize: something I can steal from the BBC without them noticing.Remember, you can't post your answers for five minutes or you're disqualified.1. In which constituency will you find the village of Penisarwain?2. What do Felipe Calderon, Benjamin Netanyahu and Rhodri Morgan have in common?3. If Welsh Lib Dem leader Mike German wasn't a politician, what would he be?4. Before this year, how many people popular Welsh surname 'Jenkins' have stood for election to the national assembly?5. Which candidate ...
More About: Post , Welsh Assembly Election 2007 , Past , First

Labour concede Llanelli!
2007-05-04 01:47:00
Whispers are that Labour knew the writing was on the wall as early as this afternoon. Plaid were reluctant to make capital in case it dissuaded some of their core vote. Vaughan Roderick is reporting that Labour have now conceded it.Start of a meltdown or just one of those we always thought would go?I wouldn't get too carried away. Yet.But if what we are hearing about Newport East, Newport West, Cardiff North, Carmarthen West, Clwyd West, Delyn, Preseli, Aberconwy... if that's all true. Well, then. Squeaky bums.
More About: Welsh Assembly Election 2007 , Once

Campaign killers and May the Fourthcasts
2007-05-04 01:07:00
This campaign has taken the political manifesto to new levels. We've seen manifestos for absolutely everything: old people, young people, North Wales, South Wales, green stuff, sports stuff... you name it. Any excuse for a photo opportunity.The four main manifestos were, in all honesty, boring enough. The 20+ supplementary ones were a complete waste of paper. They said absolutely nothing new.Plaid were churning out manifestos quicker than an East Asian sweatshop churns our Burberry polo shirts. But they were all to blame so I'm not going to take points off any one party in particular.As for the rest of the campaigns, here's my assessment:Labour: Talked a lot about what they've already done and even more about who they don't want in power after the election. They didn't talk much about what they'd still like to do if the good people of Wales were to allow them. Defining moments: 'saving' hospitals only the government could have been in a position to put under threat; implodi...
More About: Campaign , Welsh Assembly Election 2007 , Killers , Camp , Four

Rumours, Whispers, Gossip
2007-05-04 00:02:00
Plonk them in the comments or an email and I shall, in turn, plonk them in here...- Another plug from Huw Edwards. Something about blogs being written by incontinent saddos. Definition of incontinent: 'lacking in moderation or self-control, esp. of sexual desire.' Oh dear, good job my mum isn't watching. - Plug from Huw Edwards. He obviously doesn't know what a blog is:) Thanks anyway.- Newport East, Newport East, Newport East, Newport East, Newport East!!- Islwyn safe. Upset in 1999, not in 2007.- Lib Dems talking up Newport East. For them to win they'd need a staggering 14.3% swing. Apparently the Tories are predicting this as a Lib Dem gain - unconfirmed at present.- Rhodri Morgan and Sue Essex spotted outside Tesco next to Whitchurch library at 8.40 urging people to vote. Also, I'm told in M&S. Rhodri could be buying some slippers for his retirement. Last minute desperation?- Tories talking up Newport West.- Turnout LOW in Ynys Mon. Plaid jittery?- Labour vote collapsed in...
More About: Gossip , Welsh Assembly Election 2007 , Rumour , Rumours , Ossi

Predicitions: make them now coz postdicting is cheating
2007-05-03 23:31:00
It's already late. And it's just going to get later. So, I'll keep this concise. Unlike other commentators I'm not going to dilly dally and play it safe. Daran from Positif Politics wanted a mention so here it is: people are paying you for political advice and you still don't have the balls to call Llanelli!:) Humph. I'd rather have egg on my face than no eggs at all. You can't have an election without eggs (blimey, that's bollocks isn't it? Caffeine kicking in...)Marginals:Aberconwy: Plaid gain from Labour (though notionally a hold due to boundary changes). Sorry Dylan.Caerphilly: Labour Hold. Ron Davies has badgered the incumbent Labour AM with all his will. But unless Caerphilly has a collective moment of madness, this seat is safe.Cardiff North: Tory gain from Labour. Cherie and Gordon some Howe fail.Carmarthen West: Plaid gain from Labour. Christine fails to Gwyther the storm.Clwyd West: Tory gain form Labour. Being Christian and a little bit iffy on homosexuality didn...
More About: Cheating , Welsh Assembly Election 2007 , Them , Make , Eating

Blamerbell at the Beeb...
2007-05-03 21:49:00
So, I'm sitting here in the semi-outside with Joe Allen. There's loads of booze opposite me, which is great as it's my birthday. Problem is it's from the Pobl y Cwm set so it's probably fake.Word in the Beeb is that turnout is variable (whoaa, revelation), but probably very high in the hyper-marginals. There were queues this morning at one polling station in Newport East, apparently. Did I say polling station? I meant family planning clinic.Elsewhere, it seems it's a straight race between Plaid and the Tories in Aberconwy and there are whispers that Labour are already lowering the bar about what constitutes a 'defeat' tonight.Guto Thomas has just joined us. Suddenly it smells of chips.Don't go away tonight chaps. Still to come I've got five minute quizzes, predictions and much more anoraky madness.Also, if you've got any gossip from counts or the inside, do get in touch. Email me: blamerbell[at]googlemail.comAdrian Masters has just come by to tell us he has a dressing roo...
More About: Welsh Assembly Election 2007 , Bell , Blame , Lame

What have we done?
2007-05-03 15:08:00
This is my life: brief flirtation with football, passionate and elaborate relationship with classical music and academia, audacious attempt to learn Japanese from scratch and then finally, return home to have a bash at being a journalist and as an almost accidental consequence, a Welsh political blogger.With the exception of those formative years with a football (I played for Merthyr schoolboys don't you know), I've only ever been involved in niche pursuits. I have shouted and screamed about their importance. But I've almost always had to concede that the majority of the population will never really understand nor share my enthusiasm.So, when Alwyn ap Huw ponders on his blog if the internet has had an affect on this election, I'd like to think that it has. Because it's not necessarily important that people share your enthusiasm - what's important is that they acknowledge it exists and are sufficiently impressed by it. The best political correspondents seem to be irrepressibly...
More About: Welsh Assembly Election 2007 , Have , Done

What floats your vote? #2
2007-05-03 01:49:00
Ever since I've been interested in politics, I've wondered what it must be like to live in a marginal constituency. Over the years, I got to know my local MP, Ted Rowlands, reasonably well. We met at various music events as his wife gave out the prizes. All I knew was that my Dad didn't like him very much. And time after time I'd watch the election results come in, and it would always be the same. 'What's the point of that?', I thought.But two years ago in Cambridge, it got a bit more interesting. I remember thousands of people queuing in market square just to catch a glimpse of Charles Kennedy. The Guildhall was so full he came out and gave an impromptu speech. It wasn't the best, but he delivered it without falling off his soap box and the crowd gave a huge cheer.It felt like politics mattered and that change was in the air. In the end, the Lib Dems gained the seat in what turned out to be a miserable night for Labour. (I should stress that I have a natural disinclination...
More About: Welsh Assembly Election 2007 , Vote , Oats

Election night, watch the blogs don't bite
2007-05-02 01:12:00
It'll never work. But let's have a bash anyway.Here's the idea: I'll be sitting somewhere in the BBC with Joe Allen of Wales Elects. I'm told it's going to be semi-outside so I might wear the Doctor Who coat.The two of us will have computers. This is bad news. It's impossible not to look like a techie geek if you're sitting in front of a computer on television. We might even be wearing glasses. We were both probably bullied at school.Anyway, the idea is (I think) that we live blog from within the BBC's election hub in Llandaf. This is, by the way, just about the only kind of hub the Lib Dems haven't promised in their manifesto.But more than that, we'll be monitoring your blogs too and discussing the best of them through the night on the BBC's output in Welsh and English. There is, of course, a very real danger that nobody will have written anything. Welsh politics is quite a small world at the best of times. And at 4 o'clock in the morning it's probably about as active...
More About: Watch , Blogs , Night , Welsh Assembly Election 2007 , Election

And on the sixth day, God made Leighton
2007-05-01 13:04:00
For them, politics is like a cult. They congregate around certain figures, whom they hold in great esteem. It's almost like hero-worship. If you can call a man in a suit a hero.They are, of course, the followers - the political enforcers who will not have a word said against their man. And for some reason, don't ask me why, they tend to congregate around the right wing of the Labour party.For England, see Blairism. For Wales, see Leigh tonism.Whatever you might say about Leighton Andrews, he is first and foremost a very effective Labour assembly member for the Rhondda. He is outspoken and combative - just the type of guy the assembly needs. Perhaps followers are an inevitable consequence of strong leaders (although Mr Andrews leads nothing much yet). What's certain is that they exist, and they put themselves about.Let's take for example, David Taylor, Mr Andrews' researcher. He has a track record to make the Labour right proud:2003: DT registers the domain shortchange.org.uk - a...
More About: Made , Eight

'Pre-approved and ready to go!'
2007-05-01 01:03:00
A moment of excitement at the end of ITV's Wales Decides. Never mind the fact that half the audience are from a wind farm pressure group. Rhodri Morgan has let the cat out of the bag: Labour are already working with Peter Hain's Welsh Office on implementing their manifesto pledges for the 2007-11 assembly term. Peter Hain, of course, has to approve all the new assembly measures before they can become law. But right at the end of the show, Rhodri let slip that Labour's proposals are 'pre-approved and ready to go'.That's funny, I was under the impression that political parties needed a mandate from the electorate before they could start the business of government. Can Labour really be so sure of a majority that they can begin their legislative programme before a single vote has even been cast?
More About: Welsh Assembly Election 2007 , Rove , Ready , Prove

Labour candidate concedes defeat, four days early
2007-04-30 17:42:00
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it still the official Labour line to say 'we are the only party who can form a majority government'? That's certainly what Rhodri Morgan was banging on about during the leaders debate last night. In fact, I seem to recall him saying it was 'arrogant' of Ieuan Wyn Jones to suggest otherwise.If that is the case, why is Labour's number one candidate on the North Wales regional list predicting they will fall four seats short of a majority?Writing for the New Statesman online, Ken Skates says: "My forecast is that Labour in Wales will not do as badly as the national polls suggest. We?ll fall to 27 (down two) whereas the Tories will gain a handful."And it gets worse. Those who follow the party line have no choice but to predict an increase in the Labour vote, since that's the only way they could possibly claw back a majority in the Senedd. Not so Mr Skates, who says "I reckon Carl Sargeant will be the only Labour AM to increase both the size and...
More About: Days , Early , Four , Once

Four days to go and...
2007-04-30 11:48:00
Lib Dem leader Mike German is in Aberystwyth again. He might as well buy a second home there. That'll please Elin Jones. Still, he might need somewhere to lie low on election night. Can you really see Plaid making the same mistake twice?Labour say it's all about partnership. Peter Hain and Rhodri Morgan are going to comb each other's hair for the press sometime this afternoon. Activists will be choking on their clear red water.Plaid Cymru have finally persuaded some chap called Eurfyl ap Gwilym to come down from London to take the flak over their finance programme. Expect Labour and the Tories to sling the mud with venom. I fear for poor Eurfyl it's going to be like trying to volley it away with a tennis racket - much of it is going to splatter over the brave little soldier's face. And why do Plaid need to 'call in' an expert anyway? Can't any of their AMs do sums?And the Tories have brought in a notorious vote winner to help them with the final push. Unfortunately, he wasn...
More About: Welsh Assembly Election 2007 , Days