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Al-Qaida Continues Defiance on Mosul, Claims Hotel Suicide Bombing
2008-06-01 02:21:00
The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a new video recording and, separately, a text communiqué from Al-Qaida ’s Islamic State of Iraq (ISI). During the video, an unidentified individual presented as the official ISI spokesman for the Nineveh province of Iraq (Mosul) sharply denied reports of the ISI's defeat in the city of Mosul: “we bring the good news to you that we are at our full capabilities, and we have not lost a single soldier—neither killed nor arrested. This reality...(read more)
More About: Hotel , Suicide , Claims , Al Qaida

NEFA Foundation: New Documents from Emerging Palestinian Al-Qaida Faction i
2008-06-01 00:44:00
The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a communiqué and audio recording from an emerging branch of the Al-Qaida -aligned Fatah al-Islam movement based in the Gaza Strip. On January 12, 2008, the group issued a statement naming its local commander in the Palestinian territories as “Abu Abdelrahman al-Ghazzawi”, who it simply described as “a very kind brother, with much previous experience in jihad and deep-seeded roots in theology.” On February 12, 2008, Fatah al-Islam...(read more)
More About: Al Qaida , Documents

Madeleine Gruen Joins Us As a Contributing Expert
2008-05-31 23:30:00
We are pleased to welcome Madeleine Gruen to CTB as our newest Contributing Expert . Ms. Gruen most recently worked as a in the Counter Terrorism Bureau of the NYPD as an Intelligence Analyst, analyzing terrorist and extremist-group capabilities and intentions; maintaining current knowledge of terrorist tradecraft and means of support, analyzing leads; and anticipating future tactical trends. She is the author of numerous articles and presentations for senior-level officials in law enforcement and...(read more)

Descent into Appeasement
2008-05-31 07:16:00
Since Pakistan's new government came to power earlier this year, it has noticeably accelerated efforts to negotiate with and enter into accords with militant groups. While one can construct a case for negotiating with Pakistan's extremist groups, none of the talks in this new round address the problems of failed past agreements such as the September 2006 Waziristan accords. Rather, the current negotiations are likely to bolster the Taliban and al-Qaeda -- and create a more dangerous situation for...(read more)
More About: Descent , Appeasement

UN Monitoring Team Report Highlights Problems Plaguing Implementation of Me
2008-05-31 06:06:00
The United Nations Al Qaeda/Taliban Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team issued its 8th report earlier this month reviewing the implementation by states of the UN measures against Al Qaeda and the Taliban. The report also highlights several problems that continue to reduce the effectiveness of these UN measures. Unlike the previous Monitoring Group on which I served, this team has shied away from drawing attention to specific violations of the UN measures. Nevertheless, their description...(read more)
More About: Report , Problems , Highlights

Nasrallah's speech: The Explosive Bottom Line
2008-05-31 00:09:00
Here is a summary of the main points made by Secretary General of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah this week in Beirut, after the invasion of (mostly Sunni) West Beirut, the attack against (mostly Druze) southern Mount Lebanon and after the declaration of Doha and the election of a new President for Lebanon. Nasrallah delivered his "victory speech" last Monday, outlining the new agenda of the Iranian funded organization in Lebanon. My full analysis will be published Monday. Following are twelve...(read more)
More About: Line , Speech , Bottom

Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence Dr. Donald Kerr addresse
2008-05-30 23:15:00
Last night, Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence Dr. Donald Kerr addressed The Washington Institute for Near East Policy's 20th Annual Soref Symposium. In a lecture entitled "Emerging Threats, Challenges, and Opportunities in the Middle East," Dr. Kerr offered a a notional view of some of the issues that will be raised during the Presidential Daily Brief (PDB) in the Oval Office on January 21, 2009. Whoever next occupies the While House will inherent critical and pressing foreign policy...(read more)

Statistical Analysis of Decapitation as a Counter-Terror Strategy
2008-05-30 21:10:00
The most recent edition of The Journal of International Policy Solutions published a statistical analysis I wrote on the efficacy of killing or capturing the top leaders of a terrorist organizations. Entitled "Testing The Snake Head Strategy : Does Killing or Capturing its Leaders Reduce a Terror ist Group's Activity?" the article can be read in its entirety here a summary of the method and findings follows. It is conventional wisdom that removing an organization's leaders is an effective counter-terror...(read more)
More About: Analysis , Counter , Decapitation

Iran Moves Banking Facilities to Venezuela
2008-05-30 18:46:00
In a little-noticed move, Venezuela and Iran are joining forces not just in petroleum-relate ventures, but in banking ventures. The move toward joint banking is likely to boost Tehran's ability to circumvent U.S.-led sanctions against its financial structure that supports international terrorism and its nuclear program. The formation of two banks in Venezuela comes on top of the hundreds of millions of dollars in aid Iran has promised the governments in the region that support the Chavez government...(read more)
More About: Banking , Moves , Facilities

The next battlefield: Ceuta and Melilla?
2008-05-30 18:30:00
I recently wrote for the Middle East Times an article about the importance for jihadists of two tiny territories on the doorsteps of Europe. You can read the whole article here . Here is an excerpt: Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaida's No.2, makes a point to regularly mention in his broadcasts the Muslim lands that need to be "liberated." The list includes the usual suspects for every respectable jihadist: "Palestine," Kashmir and Chechnya. But interestingly, the list includes two tiny Spanish enclaves...(read more)
More About: Ceuta , Melilla

NEFA Exclusive: Further Responses from the Second Round of Q&A with al-Zawa
2008-05-30 07:29:00
The NEFA Foundation has translated further excerpts from Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri’s second round of answers to some of the hundreds of questions recently submitted on extremist web forums by Al-Qaida supporters and other interested parties. In response to various questions regarding the structure and relationship between the various “Emirates” in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere, al-Zawahiri explained, “the Islamic State of Iraq, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan-and I would...(read more)
More About: Exclusive , Round

Jaish-e-Mohammed: Prophet?s Army is Down but Certainly Not Out
2008-05-29 23:02:00
This column is another in the ongoing series on the terrorist threat to India and the surrounding region by Frank Hyland and Animesh Roul. Following severe setbacks in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) in 2007 at the hands of security forces, Jaish-e-Mohammed (Army of the Prophet ) reportedly plans to unleash major terrorist strikes on Indian establishments. Sources in the Indian Intelligence agencies have warned that in early 2008, even though JeM had lost more than 25 commanders in the last couple of years,...(read more)

Second Bin Laden Audio Transcript: "A Message to the Islamic Nation"
2008-05-29 22:26:00
The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a copy of a May 18 audio recording from Al-Qaida Usama Bin Laden titled “A Message to the Islamic Nation .” During his speech, Bin Laden called upon Muslim youths—particularly those living in countries neighboring Israel—to immediately take up arms in defense of their Palestinian “brothers” in the embattled Gaza Strip. According to Bin Laden, “It is very clear what our brothers, the heroes of Egypt, must do in...(read more)
More About: Audio

Never Again
2008-05-29 04:00:00
If you missed Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal's speech to NRA members in Louisville, I want you to go into the archives here at NRANews.com and listen to what he has to say. When was the last time you heard an elected official talk about a government out of control? When was the last time you heard a politician share the stories of law-abiding gun owners disarmed by the very government sworn to protect them? Governor Bobby Jindal understands what happened in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. He...(read more)

The Beginning of the End for Al Qaeda?
2008-05-29 03:01:00
Peter Bergen (my colleague at the NYU Center on Law and Security ) and myself have a cover story out in the latest issue of the New Republic -- published online last week and now on news stands --- entitled the ‘Jihadist Revolt against Bin Laden.’ We report that key figures in the Jihadist movement, many of them veterans of the Afghan anti-Soviet Jihad, are increasingly publicly repudiating Bin Laden, alarmed by Al Qaeda ’s indiscriminate targeting of civilians and the fact that...(read more)
More About: Al-Qaeda , The Beginning of the End

Virtual Assassination as a Counterterrorism tool
2008-05-28 20:54:00
As part of the virtualization of terrorism it is worth considering what if any terrorist tactics can be applied in this new paradigm. One tactic, which can probably transfer from the real world to cyber environments is assassination, or in this case virtual-assassination . The tactic of assassination has value for a number of reasons. It can remove competent or charismatic leadership, damage morale and as a side effect can force an increase in security. So how would all this work in cyberspace? You...(read more)
More About: Tool , Virtual , Assassination , Counterterrorism

Media and Intel Community Caught by Apparent Al-Qaida Nuke Message "Prank"
2008-05-28 04:22:00
As of early this evening, ABC News and the Drudge Report are running a headline claiming that "al Qaeda operatives will post a new video on the Internet in the next 24 hours, calling for what one source said is 'jihadists to use biological, chemical and nuclear weapons to attack the West.'" The ABC News report quotes FBI spokesman Richard Kolko as acknowledging that "there have been several reports that al Qaeda will release a new message calling for the use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) against...(read more)
More About: Media , Prank , Community , Intel , Message

Mayor Nutter's Cowardice
2008-05-28 04:00:00
For months now, I've listened to Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter use the NRA and its members as scapegoats for the city's violent crime. After the murder of Philadelphia police Sgt. Steven Liczbinski, Nutter said the NRA "should apologize." At a hearing contesting the legality of five gun-control ordinances signed by Mayor Nutter, he said the NRA and its members are "virtually criminal" for opposing the patently illegal and unconstitutional infringements on Philadelphians' freedoms....(read more)

Usama's Message: Good Jihadists v. Bad Jihadists
2008-05-28 00:49:00
In his latest audio released by as-sahab (media arm of al Qaeda), the organization’s Zaeem (supreme chief) elaborates on the difference between the pure Jihadists and those Islamists who lost their way and determination to continue the fight in the path of the founding fathers, which he calls the "Salaf of Islam." This complex speech (by Jihadist standards) can be only understood -- and thus explained to decision-makers and the public if the listener-analyst is able to grasp the multi-layered...(read more)
More About: Message , Good

The Death of Marulanda and the Future of the FARC
2008-05-27 18:00:00
The FARC's announcement this weekend that its top leader, Manuel Marulanda (AKA Tirofijo, or "Sureshot") had died of a heart attack means the end of an era for the Marxist-inspired group that is now more criminal enterprise than insurgency. Marulanda, whose real name Pedro Marin, was the last of old guard that founded the FARC (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia) in 1964, after spending more than a decade fighting in the wars between Conservative and Liberal party militias. His death comes...(read more)
More About: Future , The Future , Farc , Death

The NRA Family
2008-05-27 04:00:00
If people only read the papers or watched the news, they'd think the NRA is a bunch of guys in suits, a faceless bunch known as the "gun lobby." But you and I know better. You know we're family. And here's a story that proves it. Fritz Rundell was the auctioneer at the Chafee County, Colorado, Friends of the NRA banquet the other night ... when he got a last-minute item to auction. The Friends of the NRA committee asked him to auction one more firearm, with the proceeds to help pay the...(read more)
More About: Family

The Price of Freedom
2008-05-26 04:00:00
How much is freedom worth to you? For Derek Hoskins , freedom is worth at least $650 each month. That's how much he pays for gas so he doesn't have to live in his native state of Massachusetts. Hoskins couldn't stand the gun laws in the state, so he moved to New Hampshire. And he's not alone. The Boston Globe reports the state has lost more than 300,000 residents this decade, and one in three people born in the state no longer live there. The only reason the state has seen a modest population increase...(read more)
More About: Freedom , Price

FARC's terrorist diplomacy reaches Germany
2008-05-25 05:53:00
A recent article in the German online publication, Der Spiegel, provides further insights into FARC's efforts to get itself off international terrorist lists. According to Der Spiegel , documents provided to it by Colombian officials said to be from the seized compters of the late FARC #2 leader Raul Reyes, obtained in Colombia's March 1 cross-border raid of a FARC camp in Ecuador, describe FARC meetings in Berlin with a representative of the Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS) -- the successor party...(read more)
More About: Germany , Diplomacy , Terrorist

Supreme Guide of Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood Discusses his Admiration for B
2008-05-23 17:27:00
In a lengthy interview published today in the online Arabic news service Elaph , Supreme Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood Mohammed Akef was asked: “Regarding resistance and jihad…do you consider Osama Bin Laden a terrorist or an Islamic Mujahid ?” Akef’s answer: “In all certainty, a mujahid , and I have no doubt in his sincerity in resisting the occupation, close to Allah on high.” This statement provides some insight into the current thinking of the Egyptian...(read more)
More About: Muslim Brotherhood

Preserving Coalition Government Key to U.S. Objectives in  Pakistan
2008-05-23 11:42:00
A power struggle is underway between Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) co-chairman (and widower of Benazir Bhutto) Asif Ali Zardari, Pakistan Muslim League/Nawaz (PML/N) leader Nawaz Sharif, and President Pervez Musharraf. This struggle threatens to unravel the newly elected coalition government and plunge Pakistan back into political chaos....(read more)
More About: Middle East , Government , Coalition

A NOTE FROM AN AMERICAN WARNING
2008-05-23 01:21:00
As many of you know, it has been a growing process for me in trying to get my message out to you and the public in general. As worthwhile things like this tend to do, this project has taken on a life of it?s own in some regards. As the friends and members lists grow, so do the responsibilities of answering email, looking for answers to questions and researching topics, and most importantly keeping a watchful eye on the progress of the SPP and other detractors of our constitution and soverignty - so I can keep you all up to date minute by minute. I am currently spending many more hours trying to take care of this project than I am at my ?other real life? of being a provider and father to my children. I find myself at the point where, if An American Warning is going to continue to grow and thrive, I am going to have to ask for help from those among you that have some free time to dedicate to ensuring the continued growth and succss of this website and the main "An American Warning" we...
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Millions in Criminal Proceeds + Iran's Oil Millions = Hearts, Minds, Votes
2008-05-22 23:37:00
Our future national counterinsurgency or asymmetric threat strategy must take into consideration the success which Hamas, Hezbollah, and other segments of the jihadist community have had in building and operating a social services network which influences the local populace. Matthew Levitt has written extensively on that success; see his post here on November 21, 2007 , "Zakat-Jihad Activism," in which he discusses an excellent "Military Review" article , "S.W.E.T. and Blood: Essential Services in...(read more)
More About: Minds , Millions , Criminal , Hearts , Votes

Lebanon
2008-05-22 21:46:00
Yesterday in Qatar, the pro-West Lebanese Government and Syrian and Iranian-backed Hizballah reached an agreement to deescalate the crisis. The Doha Agreement has largely been seen as a victory for Hizballah; the militia cum political party will be brought into the Government and provided a cabinet veto. Meanwhile, a discussion of the disposition of Hizballah’s weapons—a core issue for March 14th—will be deferred. Despite these March 14th concessions, in reality, the deal will do...(read more)
More About: Lebanon

NEFA Foundation: Transcript of Bin Laden's "Message to the Peoples of the W
2008-05-22 20:20:00
The NEFA Foundation has obtained and translated a copy of a May 15, 2008 audio recording from Al-Qaida leader Usama Bin Laden, titled, “A Message to the People of the West from the Shaykh Usama Bin Laden: The Reasons for the Conflict on the Sixtieth Anniversary of the Israeli Conquest.” During his speech, Bin Laden sought to “reassure” the world that “the Palestinian issue is the primary central issue of our movement. Thus, it has been an important factor in motivating...(read more)
More About: Peoples

A Needed Push in the Intelligence Community
2008-05-22 17:37:00
Mike McConnell, the director for national intelligence, recently announced a significant revision in how members of the Intelligence Community will be paid. Rather than rewarding employees for simply putting in time, the new pay system seeks to reward performance. As McConnell said, you usually get the behavior you reward. It is undoubtedly something of a risk, but there is little doubt that it is vitally necessary as a way to reward innovation and those who take a modicum of risk in their jobs,...(read more)
More About: Push