American EntropyAmerican EntropyA progressive political blog with a focus on foreign affairs. Articles
The Bush White House Approved Disbanding Iraqi Army
2007-09-04 14:15:00 NY Times: A previously undisclosed exchange of letters shows that President Bush was told in advance by his top Iraq envoy in May 2003 of a plan to "dissolve Saddam’s military and intelligence structures," a plan that the envoy, L. Paul Bremer, said referred to dismantling the Iraqi Army .Mr. Bremer provided the letters to The New York Times on Monday after reading that Mr. Bush was quoted in a new book as saying that American policy had been "to keep the army intact" but that it "didn't happen." Like anyone believes that any decision this large would have been left merely to an envoy. The only thing that Bush could have said that might save face and appear honest is that Rumsfeld or Cheney kept it from him or were totally in charge at the time. He said neither and tried to shift blame on Bremer. That has now been debunked.Now for the competency of these "leaders" who so gleefully lead us into the worst foreign policy fiasco since Vietnam if not ever. Buried in the above arti... More About: House , White House , White
The Surge: Decoding the happy-talk and PR stunts
2007-09-04 03:05:00 President Bush said this earlier today in his super top-secret visit to Iraq (ahhh... progress):"General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker tell me if the kind of success we are now seeing continues, it is possible to maintain the same level of security with fewer American forces," he said.What he really means is that he's too cowardly to reassess the situation strategically and will keep the escalation going until it can't physically be sustained without more unprecedented adjustments. So come August '08 we're looking at one of three situations. One, our Congress will gather up the willpower and begin to confront the President. More likely, two, nothing will happen in Congress. The escalation will continue as it has for months now and there will be little to show for it. As are troop levels begin to fall by the weight of their own gravity, the interests in Iraq will go back to their slightly dormant cycles. Finally three, we could reassess the situation noting the fact that ... More About: Talk , Happy , Surge , Stunts , Urge
Has Mubarak died?
2007-09-03 01:24:00 Maybe, maybe not. It's irrelevant to this post, but the reaction "reflects the current state of political polarization" in Egypt. Mubarak is nearly into his 80s and holds a place on a long list of MENA dictators and/or monarchs that will vacate their offices soon. In this post, linked above, Marc Lynch looks at the phenomena of rumor in a state as divided and diverse as Egypt.Lynch ends with:If Hosni Mubarak really has been incapacitated then we're going to be looking at an extremely tense transitional period, with the 'center' disappearing at the height of multiple political struggles. Even if he hasn't, the wildfire spread of the rumor and the tenor of the discussions suggest tremendous uncertainty about Egypt's political future.Posted by Geoff More About: Died
"Surging" Nowhere: September Report Shows Failing Strategy
2007-08-30 04:34:00 Portions of the much awaited report on Iraqi political progress by the Government Accountability Office, or GAO, are beginning to leak out. As is painfully obvious, despite minimal results on the military and security front, the political progress has been a disaster. To remind the reader, President Bush's escalation came with 18 benchmarks in which to measure progress. In July, the White House claimed, in error, that "satisfactory performance" was being achieved in 8 of those 18 benchmarks. I opined in a post earlier this month:If you think back, the July "Initial Benchmark Assessment Report " that claimed that "satisfactory performance" on nearly half of the proposed benchmarks was so fundamentally flawed that I doubt the White House can flaw it any more this time around. They set a fake bar, way too high, and now they won't be able to reach past it while still seeming realistic. They may have burned themselves...Back in July, this White House spin was promptly debunked as mi... More About: Strategy , September
Where's this bin Laden guy?
2007-08-27 03:39:00 Those interested in the hunt for Usama bin Laden would be well served to read the Newsweek report on the ever-continuing hunt. Consider it a concise version of Woodward's "Bush at War" and Gary Berntsen's "Jawbreaker" with additional contemporary, reporting. Here are some snips. This part would have made me laugh if it wasn't so serious and disappointing. Instead I just shook my head...The Iraq War, meanwhile, has proved to be a black hole for the Americans, devouring men and material and absorbing the attention of the brass in Washington. In 2005, the CIA gave President Bush a secret slide show on the hunt for bin Laden. The president was taken aback by the small number of CIA case officers posted to Afghanistan and Pakistan. "Is that all there are?" the president asked, according to a former intelligence official, who declined to be identified discussing White House meetings. The CIA had already embarked on a "surge" of sorts, and doubled the number of officers in the field.... More About: Bin Laden
Int'l Assoc. of Machinists and Aerospace Workers Prez Forums
2007-08-27 03:10:00 I've been asked to pass this along...Five presidential candidates confirmed they will take part in discussions of key domestic issues before more than 600 representatives of the International Association of Mach inists and Aerospace Worker s (IAM) on August 27 and 28 at the Disney Yacht and Beach Club in Orlando, FL. The schedule for the IAM's Conversation with the Candidates is as follows:Mon. Aug. 27, 3:30 pm - New York Sen. Hillary ClintonMon. Aug. 27, 7:30 pm - California Rep. Duncan Hunter and former Arkansas Gov. Mike HuckabeeTue. Aug. 28, 7:30 pm - Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and Ohio Rep. Dennis KucinichThe candidate conversations will be moderated by Erin Moriarty of CBS News.The event will be streamed, live, from the www.GOIAM.org web site. Streaming provided by ustream.tv.Posted by Geoff More About: Forums , Prez
"Twisting History"
2007-08-22 23:54:00 It's OK if you're a Republican.Todays speech by the president to legitimize his Iraq policy has roused the ire of those familiar with history. To UCLA historian Robert Dallek, the "distortions" "boggle" his mind.“We were in Vietnam for 10 years. We dropped more bombs on Vietnam than we did in all of World War II in every theater. We lost 58,700 American lives, the second-greatest loss of lives in a foreign conflict. And we couldn’t work our will,” he said.“What is Bush suggesting? That we didn’t fight hard enough, stay long enough? That’s nonsense. It’s a distortion,” he continued. “We’ve been in Iraq longer than we fought in World War II. It’s a disaster, and this is a political attempt to lay the blame for the disaster on his opponents. But the disaster is the consequence of going in, not getting out.”Col. Pat Lang adds in an unrelated postWe keep "screwing up" in places like Vietnam and Iraq because we (as a people) do not accept the relevance of histor... More About: History
America: We like you Petraeus, but we aren't going to buy it
2007-08-17 04:39:00 The stay the course crowd who favor the presidents escalation policy in Iraq were given a tasty--but pointless--nugget today. This, of course, was used to continue their desperate attempts to inflate the successes of the "surge" and equate anyone analyzing the lack of progress in Iraq as anti-America n terrorist supporters. The E & P story that brought this on says:The [Gallop] poll of 1,012 adults, taken earlier this month, found that 47% give [Petraeus ] a favorable rating, and only 21% unfavorable. The rest had not heard of him or had no opinion.This is no surprise. Petraeus is a likable guy, a scholar, a patriot and has brought some welcome relief in Iraq; albeit years too late. From what I've read from his counter insurgency manual, he appears to be the man for this job. As I said in February, if we were able to give him what he needed, we might actually be able to pull this thing off. I'd much rather Petraeus write the President's mid-September report on the escalation ... More About: Going , Like You , Goin
The Debate is Over Regarding the Surge
2007-08-16 05:26:00 As we start the debate again, it's going to revert to a 'stay the course' camp and a bunch of different plans to move forward and/or to move out of Iraq. Much mud will be thrown. Some things to keep in mind:1) Petraeus hinted that rotating troops out of pacified areas and into the hot spots. Isn't this plan a microcosm of setting a timeline? Recall that we've recently cut troop levels in the North and yesterday hundreds of Iraqis were murdered there. Why sacrifice human life in a desperate attempt to score political points? And if your argument is that it won't be announced or communicated, my reply is that it doesn't have to be. It will be very visible and an asymmetrical force doesn't need much time to maneuver and redeploy.2) The stay the course crowd will want to keep gambling American lives as they dig for ponies. In Iraq, our troops face an enemy that will not cower like congressional Democrats. Our stay the course crowd also faces and enemy, reality. In Janua... More About: Debate , Surge , Urge
Forget Bush's mid-September Report, Look for the GAO's
2007-08-16 05:06:00 The LA Times reveled some insight on what we can expect mid-September in the report on the presidents "surge" in Iraq. It also reminded anyone remotely paying attention that the mid-September report--misleadingly referred to as the Petraeus-Crocker report--will be a political document written for, and only for, misleading the US audience into a continuation of failed policy. Despite Bush's repeated statements that the report will reflect evaluations by Petraeus and Ryan Crocker, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, administration officials said it would actually be written by the White House, with inputs from officials throughout the government.And though Petraeus and Crocker will present their recommendations on Capitol Hill, legislation passed by Congress leaves it to the president to decide how to interpret the report's data.One would hope that the frame "Petraeus-Crocker" would disappear, but it won't. One would hope people will see through this report, but they won't. For a quic... More About: Report , The G
More on Rudy Giuliani's Foreign Policy
2007-08-15 21:35:00 Continuing on my post from last night on Giulian's foreign policy essay, the wonks at Democracy Arsenal have some fun at Rudy 's expense. Apparently it's not so serious yet seeing that he's so far away from even being considered a candidate and even further away from scaring the hell out of everyone and then playing Mayor of US during the '08 election. Here are some clippings...Parts of Iraq would undoubtedly fall under the sway of our enemies, particularly Iran, which would use its influence to direct even more terror at U.S. interests and U.S. allies than it does today. (Irony alert: Iran's growing influence is a direct result of our invasion or Iraq. But more to the point, would Iran be directing terror at the US if we weren't in Iraq today? This is a self-defeating argument. Rudy is saying we can't leave Iraq because it will embolden Iran, and yet it's our very presence, which has emboldened them in the first place. Ugh, my head hurts, I need a cold beverage.)Our allie... More About: Policy , Foreign Policy , Foreign , Reign
Rudy Giuliani: On US Foreign Policy After the Bush Years
2007-08-15 06:08:00 So I just read Republican presidential candidate Rudolph Giuliani 's new foreign policy thesis in Foreign Affairs and I just have to share a few comments before I retire for the night.[UPDATE] Fixed link to go to main story not the print page.First his new lexicon is "terrorists' war on global order" and "on us" so get used to that. This phrase arises in Rudy's reference to the "three key foreign policy challenges" facing the next president, which are: Victory in the "terrorists' war on global order." Strengthen that global order (a.k.a. the "international system"). As security spreads, ensure that the international system is there to welcome liberated peoples and/or nations.This will be done by, among other things, finding a balance between "realism and idealism in our foreign policy." To Rudy, idealism is our ultimate goal and realism is our means to getting there. the goal? "Preserving and extending American ideals..." pursued "...through realistic means." So my reading... More About: Bush , Rudy Giuliani , Policy , Foreign Policy
Skeptics Beware
2007-08-13 21:50:00 Given all the bamboozlement surrounding climate science I thought I'd share a recent LTTE I wrote in response to a local (SC) climate skeptic who managed to get his misinformation past the brilliant censors at the Post & Courier. Some quick background, popular skeptic Stephen McIntyre invented a controversy which was unprofessionally recited--incorrectly at times--by skeptics throughout the blogosphere and the media. A minor error that moved the record high temperature in the continental US from 1998 to 1934 and causing the high point to move from "being in a virtual tie, to being in a virtual tie" was the culprit here. (The site I am quoting here has been attacked and will make your browser freeze up. Click this link at your own risk!) We should thank McIntyre for finding this error but ignore his claims that it is a big issue. It only affects the continental US data not the global data. And it is global warming.Anyway, a recent letter to the editor (titled "Warming skeptic... More About: Skeptics , Beware
sigh....
More articles from this author:2007-08-12 07:16:00 Cheney explains why we shouldn't have gone into Baghdad.... In 1994.Heh, I probably would have agreed with him then. I wonder what he thinks now...(h/t Crooked Timber)Posted by Geoff More About: Sigh 1, 2, 3 |
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