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On Partisanship and McCain Hatred
2008-02-11 06:49:00
Barring a cataclysmic collapse, John McCain will be the Republican presidential nominee for the 2008 general election. McCain turned out to be the last man standing, as he peaked at just the right time. However, McCain will enter the general election with a fractured party and quite a bit of resentment among the Republican base.There are two types of conservatives: ideological conservatives and Republican conservatives. Dissatisfied ideological conservatives will likely have fewer qualms about sitting this election out or voting for the Constitution Party nominee. These ideological conservatives want the Republican Party to remain true to its conservative principles, even if that means splitting the Republican vote so much that it allows a Democrat to win the election because that would show Republican presidential aspirants that their electoral chances hinge on how true they are to their conservative base. These conservatives gave the Republican Party fits in the 90s by throw...
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Money and the Problem with the Clinton Apparatus
2008-02-07 21:43:00
The most recent bombshell in the presidential race concerns the fiscal health of the Hillary Clinton campaign which has come under increased scrutiny as it was revealed that Clinton had loaned her campaign $5M. This is a big deal because the only candidates who loan themselves money and have staff working without pay are candidates who are having major problems raising money. And if you have problems raising money, that means you have problems generating support for your candidacy.John Edwards, Rudy Giuliani, and Mitt Romney have all made similar moves in the past, and all three candidates have dropped out of the presidential race, with Romney being the most recent candidate to call it quits. The fact that this news comes on the heels of Barack Obama's $32 million haul in January has exposed one of the greatest weaknesses of the Clinton campaign.Clinton started her presidential campaign with high negatives and high name recognition. This suggested that she would have the most d...
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The Economy and an Argument for Conservatism
2008-02-05 22:31:00
Aside from Super Tuesday and the presidential race, one of the biggest issues facing the country regarding its government is the economic stimulus package currently being debated in Congress. Economic volatility, a slumping housing market, and a weak dollar have contributed to a pervasive sense of pessimism among many voters.To address these voters' concerns, President Bush, members of Congress, and even the presidential candidates have talked about the need for some sort of "stimulus" that will benefit American families and help jumpstart the American economy. However, their rhetoric and the very nature of the economic stimulus package on the table blatantly contradict some of the principal tenets of their political philosophies. Both liberals and conservatives are guilty of this, but it seems that conservatives are a bit more egregious in their hypocrisy because what should be their argument is actually quite credible.One major part of the package involves mailing out rebate c...
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Ron Paul's Descent
2008-02-04 21:43:00
One of the most underreported stories in January has been the underwhelming performance of Ron Paul's presidential campaign. After shattering fundraising records and amassing legions of loyal supporters online, Paul's candidacy seems to have run out of gas.To his credit, Ron Paul, the proverbial Repbulican punching bag, has performed better than several of his supposedly stronger rivals in the early voting states. For example, Paul finished ahead of Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani on more than one occasion. This shows that he is not as much of a fringe candidate as his rivals have made him out to be. The fact that his campaign has survived longer than theirs further validates this argument.However, his performance in the primaries thus far has served more to embarrass his rivals, rather than shed light on his own viability. The problem is, where does Ron Paul go from here? New Hampshire was supposed to be his breakout state because of its libertarian bent. But he only drew ...
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Romney Antipathy and Republican Hypocrisy
2008-02-01 18:13:00
Mitt Romney has emerged as John McCain's final rival for the Republican nomination. However, despite all of Romney's advantages, McCain is well positioned to demolish him on Super Tuesday and become the de facto Republican presidential nominee. This is all the more striking given how strong Romney appears to be on paper and how much dissatisfaction the conservative punditry has for McCain. Even those who might be sympathetic towards Romney are writing him off, as this article by Stephen Hayes of the Weekly Standard suggests.So in this post I'll address why Romney has struggled so much and why so many people simply don't care much for him or his campaign. And I'll also address how these reasons for knocking Romney make his Republican detractors look like, well, Democrats.For starters, Romney is personally wealthy. Of all the candidates remaining, Romney has the highest net worth. (He's worth over $200 million.) Republicans loved to criticize John Edwards for his large ho...
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The Presidential Finals
2008-01-30 16:55:00
Just as South Carolina did for the Democrats, Florida has winnowed the incredibly large GOP field of presidential hopefuls down to two candiates. More than two candidates are obviously still in the race, but it has now reached the point where almost everyone can agree that there are only two plausible nominees remaining on both sides, with the other candidates serving as role players.The finalists are Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on the Democratic side, and John McCain and Mitt Romney on the Republican side. The role players are John Edwards and Mike Huckabee, neither of whom will be the nominee, but could still influence the race by drawing enough votes to swing future electoral outcomes or perhaps even serve as a powerbroker at the party conventions this summer. (Huckabee's populist message is probably siphoning off evangelical and economic votes from Romney, which would benefit McCain. Edwards is more of a free agent who splits the change vote and the White vote, thus he...
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On Electoral Behavior and the Credibility of Polling
2008-01-28 18:04:00
The polling industry was rocked when Hillary Clinton won a come from behind victory in the New Hampshire primary despite the fact that the question raised by almost every poll taken immediately beforehand was not whether she would lose, but rather by how much. Pundits commonly talked about the Bradley effect, in which voters lie to pollsters about their willingness to support a candidate of color only to abandon this candidate in the privacy of the voting booth because of their own unspoken prejudices. Other pundits looked for other possible causes for Clinton's "silent surge." These reasons ranged from being emotionally-based (e.g., Clinton's crying) to institutionally-based (e.g., Clinton did better among Democratic establishment-types) to psychosocially-based (e.g., the male candidates were slighting Clinton much like the way many women feel the men in their professional and personal lives slight them). All of these explanations had some legitimacy.The sheer margin of Barac...
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Dissecting South Carolina (D)
2008-01-27 03:47:00
The results are still coming in, but it looks like Barack Obama will win the South Carolina Democratic primary with more than half of the vote and with more votes than Hillary Clinton and John Edwards combined. Given the margin of his victory and his sufficiently strong performance among White voters (exit poll results here), it appears that the emerging storyline will be that the voters rejected the Clintonian brand of race-baiting politics and really want to move on. The other likely storyline will concern where John Edwards goes from here. Here are some of my thoughts, listed in no particular order:1. The only way John Edwards can win the nomination now is if Clinton or Obama self-destructs somewhere down the road and he becomes the alternative candidate. But barring a total meltdown or fatal gaffe on behalf of his rivals, the only path for John Edwards now leads to amassing delegates, not winning the nomination. He was already in trouble for not winning his must-win state ...
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South Carolina Primary Coverage: Brave New Films Simulcast
2008-01-27 00:11:00
Brave New Films is hosting primary night coverage of the South Carolina Democratic primary results tonight. This event is also being sponsored by the Young Turks and is hosted by Robert Greenwald and Cenk Uygur. I will be participating in the discussion via call-in starting at 7:20. Other guests will include prominent bloggers from Firedoglake, Alternet, the Huffington Post, Crooks and Liars, and other major sites. You can watch the simulcast in the window below, but if it doesn't work, you can also watch it here. A live blog is also available for anyone to participate in. Copyright 2007-2008 by Anthony Palmer. All rights reserved.
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What South Carolina Means: Barack Obama
2008-01-26 02:35:00
Note: This is the third and final installment of my three-part series assessing the three remaining Democratic presidential candidates as they pertain to the South Carolina Democratic primary tomorrow. This piece was originally written on January 22 and is currently posted at Pajamas Media. Due to contractual stipulations, this piece cannot be posted on The 7-10 in its entirety at present. However, it will be posted here on Sunday.In short, this piece assesses the three probable media storylines that will emerge from the primary results tomorrow. All of these storylines are predicated on an Obama victory. The differences in storylines all depend on how large his margin of victory is, how balanced his support is, and how the Clinton campaign and the media interpret his performance:Headline 1: Barack Obama wins South Carolina ! Black vote critical to Obama’s success! This is the Barack Obama '08 becomes Jesse Jackson '88 scenario.Headline 2: Barack Obama wins South Carolin...

What South Carolina Means: Hillary Clinton
2008-01-25 13:09:00
(Note: This is the second in a three-part series assessing South Carolina as it pertains to the three leading Democratic candidates. Yesterday's post addressed John Edwards. Tomorrow's post will address Barack Obama. Today's post looks at Hillary Clinton .)---Hillary Clinton enters the South Carolina Democratic primary in an unfamiliar position: that of the underdog. After leading most polls last year and enjoying the aura of inevitability for the better part of the year, Barack Obama’s victory in the Iowa caucuses and her come from behind victory in New Hampshire have significantly weakened her stranglehold on the party’s presidential nomination. But after notching her second straight primary victory in Nevada, Clinton seems to have regained her footing and is one win away from possibly irreparably deflating the candidacy of her main rival.However, a South Carolina victory appears more elusive than any other victory thus far. After leading South Carolina for much of t...

What South Carolina Means: John Edwards
2008-01-24 12:56:00
(This is the first of a three-part series assessing the South Carolina Democratic primary. Today's installment is about John Edwards . I will write about Hillary Clinton on Friday and Barack Obama on Saturday.)-----Absent Hillary Clinton, John Edwards was supposed to be the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination this year. A young and affable Southerner who was the Democratic Party’s vice presidential nominee just four years ago, John Edwards should have had the inside track to the nomination. He was a familiar face and emerged from the 2004 campaign less wounded than John Kerry. He had the unique ability to argue that he could win an election in a red state, owned the poverty issue, and had a sharp populist message that resonated with angry and anxious voters who were upset about the lack of affordable health care, the lack of consumer protections, and the perceived exploitation by “big oil companies, big drug companies, and big insurance companies.” And...
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South Carolina Debate Analysis (D)
2008-01-22 18:40:00
Last night the top three Democrats squared off in what was the most cantankerous, liveliest, and probably nastiest debate that has taken place so far this campaign season. The rhetoric often became heated and the accusations were flying fast and furiously. Praising the legacy of Martin Luther King was often followed by accusations of distoring one's records, working with "slumlords," hypocrisy, and not taking stands on previous tough votes. In other words, it was good television for political junkies and pundits who had been waiting for the gloves to come off for ages.Here's how I think the candidates fared:Hillary ClintonClinton was highly aggressive at the debate, as she hit Obama hard over Iraq, healthcare, his voting record in the Illinois legislature, and even his dealings with the shady Tony Rezko. Some of these attacks did not go over well, as she actually received a few boos from the audience. Her main point was that one's record and what one says do matter, and she ...
More About: Analysis , Debate , South , South Carolina , Carolina

Post-South Carolina State of Affairs (R)
2008-01-20 06:25:00
South Carolina and Nevada have spoken, and the results have finally produced several distinct tiers of Republican candidates: John McCain and Mitt Romney in the top tier, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani in the second tier, and Fred Thompson and Ron Paul in the third tier. Because of the sheer chaos that characterizes the Republican race, Republican voters and party operatives are anxiously waiting for signs that someone is breaking out of the pack, as they are not sure who they should rally around. Things might still be muddled right now, but the race is no longer as turbid as it once was.John McCain's South Carolina victory is particularly sweet for him, especially after the way he was vilified in the 2000 primary. Of course, nasty kneecap politics reemerged this time around too, but that McCain was able to survive should serve as a testament to his overall strength and appeal. This victory caps McCain's improbable political comeback and has established him as the Republican...
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Oprah, Obama, and Race! Oh my!
2007-12-11 20:10:00
Much has been written about Barack Obama and the support he's receiving from Oprah Winfrey. Most of what I've read has focused on how she will benefit his campaign, how she may be a more compelling speaker than he is, how much celebrity endorsements matter, and how Hillary Clinton must be fuming over the way the race has gone over the past few weeks.However, I've been hearing a lot of rumblings primarily from conservatives, Republicans, and Whites about this story that have annoyed me: that the only reason why Oprah Winfrey is supporting Barack Obama is because he's Black. The latest gripes I've heard about this came from Justin Jackson over at Political Derby and the comments to a post written by prominent conservative blogger Michelle Malkin.Now, before I go any further, keep in mind that Barack Obama's chief appeal is his message of transcending our differences for the sake of unity. But it would seem, at least according to these conservative critics, that Blacks should...
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The Impact of Oprahbama
2007-12-10 15:49:00
Talk show luminary Oprah Winfrey teamed up with Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama over the weekend to host several political rallies in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. These events were well-received in the media and attracted thousands and thousands of supporters. Fellow South Carolina blogger Not Very Bright wrote extensively about the South Carolina rally that took place yesterday. (You can find specific links here, here, and here.)While much has already been written in the blogosphere about what happened regarding Oprah's campaigning for Obama, The 7-10 will focus a bit more on what her endorsement and campaigning actually mean and how it will impact the presidential race.For starters, Oprah Winfrey is a net positive for Obama. We all know that Oprah's megaphone is absolutely huge. And when she talks, her audience listens. Anyone who has ever written a book and had it mentioned on her show can attest to this. However, this is not to say that her au...

The Iranian NIE (New Incredulous Explanations)
2007-12-08 00:31:00
In my mind, one of the biggest political stories going on these days concerns the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's capability to develop nuclear weapons. This fall there has been a steady drumbeat to war, as was evidenced by the Kyl-Lieberman resolution in the Senate and President Bush going so far as to warn us about "World War III." But according to the NIE, Iran stopped its weapons program four years ago and is farther away from getting the bomb than was commonly thought.That alone is a big story, but that led to a new story that's not being addressed at all: the criticism from conservatives who are skeptical about the NIE's validity. These conservatives are trying to downplay the meaning of the NIE because "the intelligence has been wrong before" and because "Iran is still a threat." (You can read some of these criticisms from the Boston Globe, former United Nations Ambassador John Bolton, and the National Review.)I'm all for a free exchange of ideas and a healt...
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Edwards the Invisible, Edwards the Vulnerable
2007-12-07 15:40:00
A month ago I wrote about how John Edwards could pivot from attacking Hillary Clinton to taking advantage of the frustration that had been building among Barack Obama's supporters because of his perceived lack of "fight."Since then, a lot has happened in the Democratic presidential race. Hillary Clinton has not had a single good week of press since the debate in Philadelphia. Some of her problems were of her own creation, such as how flummoxed she became over the driver's licenses for illegal immigrants question. Others were unnecessary distractions from her campaign, such as the revelation that one of her staffers in Iowa was responsible for the rumor spreading over e-mail about Obama being a Muslim. And then there was news that was great for America, but not so great for her (or Bush), such as the recent National Intelligence Estimate saying that Iran's nuclear weapons program was much less threatening than Bush had been making it out to be. (The problem for Clinton here i...
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The McCain McCalculus
2007-12-04 14:37:00
This fall, media coverage of the Republican presidential candidates has generally been about 1) Fred Thompson's entering the race and his subsequent crash back to earth, 2) the tit-for-tat between Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, 3) the meteoric rise of Mike Huckabee in Iowa, and 4) Ron Paul's impressive fundraising.However, there has been one story that has largely gone unreported: the silent ascendancy of John McCain in New Hampshire. Like Huckabee has done in Iowa, it seems that John McCain is placing all his chips in New Hampshire and is using that as his launching pad to the nomination.Much had been said and written about McCain's demise earlier this year by the punditry and the chattering classes of Washington. He was left for dead when news surfaced that his campaign was almost out of money and that a lot of his campaign staff resigned, was fired, or defected to another Republican's presidential campaign. But after retooling his campaign operation and stringing together...

The YouTube Debate: Critiquing Conservatives' Criticisms
2007-11-30 21:38:00
There have been a lot of rumblings in the blogosphere about CNN's handling of the Republican YouTube debate this week in Florida. Popular conservative bloggers such as David Limbaugh of Town Hall and Michelle Malkin have excoriated CNN for including the questions they asked and not thoroughly vetting the "undecided voters" who participated in the debate. For example, there are links between the retired Army general who asked if gays should be allowed to openly serve in the military and Hillary Clinton. Also, during the post-debate segment, CNN conducted an interview with a focus group and highlighted an "undecided" voter who was so uninspired by what she had seen that she decided she would vote for Edwards. However, this "undecided" voter really had been an Edwards supporter all along.To the conservative community, these are two instances show that CNN is biased against conservatives and is an arm of the Clinton political machine, as it is often derided as the "Clinton News Net...
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YouTube Debate Analysis (R)
2007-11-29 22:53:00
The Republican presidential candidates participated in their first YouTube debate last night and was produced by CNN. (You can read my initial take on the debate here.) This was CNN's second YouTube debate, as the Democrats participated in the first one back in July. This debate revealed a lot about the candidates and the media. More on that later.Regarding the technical production of the debate, it seems that CNN took a few of my criticisms from the first YouTube debate to heart, as the videos were easier to hear and there were fewer technical problems, save for one man in the audience who accidentally turned off his microphone while addressing the candidates. Having said that, for the members of the audience, it might have been a bit too difficult to see the video questions because all the dead space involved should have been utilized to magnify the size of the videos. The best way I can describe this is to imagine placing a postcard on a regular sheet of paper and then enl...
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The Republican YouTube Debate: Initial Thoughts
2007-11-29 05:53:00
Tonight was the long-awaited Republican YouTube debate in St. Petersburg, Florida. This debate was a particularly nasty one in which several candidates drew blood. This post will only provide a general overview of my thoughts on the debate. A more detailed analysis of the evening's happenings will be written tomorrow or Friday.The setupThe leading candidates were placed at the center of the stage and the lower-tier candidates were placed on the sides. Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani were placed next to each other, which made for several tense exchanges. Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter were essentially the bookends on stage. I thought this was a smart decision by CNN. I hope future debate organizers continue this arrangement.CNN and the moderatorAnderson Cooper did a better job of handling this debate than Wolf Blitzer did at the last CNN Democratic debate in Las Vegas. Keep in mind that "better" is a relative term, rather than an absolute one. Cooper did not have much control...
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Republicans Eating Their Own
2007-11-27 04:34:00
The Republican presidential race has been particularly difficult to analyze because there is no clear frontrunner. Rudy Giuliani is leading in the national polls. Mitt Romney is leading in the early state polls. Mike Huckabee is making a serious run at winning the Iowa caucuses on a shoestring budget. John McCain is showing signs of life in New Hampshire. Fred Thompson is performing well in South Carolina. And Ron Paul is unquantifiable because his support is cobbled together from a variety of unlikely constituencies.This disarray has led to a variety of campaign strategies. Rudy Giuliani, for example, has been trying to bide his time until Super Tuesday when he could virtually run the table despite potentially losing Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Michigan. Mitt Romney is placing all his chips on Iowa and New Hampshire with the hope that victories there would create enough momentum to stop Giuliani. Mike Huckabee can be a giant-killer in Iowa and take Romney out ...
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Current State of Affairs (D)
2007-11-25 16:47:00
The 7-10 has returned after a long, restful, festive (and stomach-bursting) Thanksgiving.Last week was a particularly slow one for political news, but there were a few good stories worth commenting on. The Scott McClellan story shined a whole new light on the Valerie Plame saga, for example, but I will write about that at a later date.But for now, I want to talk about last week's ABC News/Washington Post poll that showed Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton in Iowa. Obama polled at 30%, Clinton polled at 26%, and Edwards polled at 22%. This was the first time in about two months that Obama has polled higher than Clinton in Iowa.Why is this important? For starters, positioning is never as important as momentum. Hillary Clinton had been trouncing her opponents in almost every poll this year (especially after Edwards began to fade in Iowa). However, it doesn't really mean much to win in September if you trend downward in December. Voters want to support candidates who have mo...
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Lame Political Discourse: Part 2
2007-11-19 02:01:00
I had written about the absurdity of our political dialgue back in September when South Carolina Republican Part y Chairman Katon Dawson accused Hillary Clinton of wanting to "surrender to the terrorists." An excellent piece written this weekend by David Broder brings up this the idea of the sorry state of our political dialogue once again, but he addresses it from a different angle. This column was about the missed opportunities from the Democratic debate last week. No, he's not talking about the opportunities Barack Obama missed to score political points on Hillary Clinton or how Chris Dodd could have broken out more. Instead, the loser of these missed opportunities, Broder argues, is the American people. And the media are complicit in this dereliction of civic responsibility.Let me explain. In his column, Broder talked about the driver's licenses for illegal immigrants question that has been the subject of much discussion among politicos since Hillary got bogged down by it...
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Nevada Debate Analysis (D)
2007-11-17 04:43:00
As promised, here is my analysis of the Democratic debate in Las Vegas last night:Hillary Clinton: Clinton clearly did her homework and it paid off for her. In addition to squashing the negative news cycles she has been enduring for the past two weeks, she regained her momentum, shifted the negative stories to her rivals, and made no obvious mistakes. But most importantly, she spoke with confidence and seemed to be in control.Before going any further, it is important to note that Clinton seemed to have home field advantage at the debate. The audience was clearly biased towards her, as they booed John Edwards and Barack Obama when they attacked her on occasion. CNN should have done a better job of establishing a few ground rules prior to the debate because this made the debate seem more like a pep rally at times. It also seemed like she had a heckler or a ringer in the audience that gave Obama a hard time while he was answering a question about driver's licenses for illegal im...
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Nevada Debate Analysis: A CNN Critique
2007-11-16 05:47:00
This post is only an analysis of CNN's coverage of the Democratic debate tonight in Las Vegas.Of all the debates I've seen so far, be they Republican or Democratic, this debate was among the most poorly conducted. I admittedly like CNN and generally respect its programming, but I was particularly disappointed by its handling of the debate tonight. As a journalism graduate and a journalism student, I offer these criticisms:There's no point in having a moderator if the moderator doesn't have any control. Wolf Blitzer essentially let the candidates talk over him and ignore his feeble attempts to rein them in when they strayed off topic. As a result, this undermined Blitzer's authority and made the debate seem more like a free for all at times. Blitzer also should have exercised more control over the audience, as some members of the crowd started shouting at the candidates during their responses, which was entirely inappropriate. I realize that debates are often tough to mode...
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Sorting out the Religious Right (R)
2007-11-14 16:47:00
One of the main components of the Republican base is the Christian right. These evangelicals and social conservatives place a premium on addressing the issues of restricting abortion, banning gay marriage, keeping God in the public square, and restricting stem cell research. Despite President Bush's failures (Katrina, managing the war in Iraq, spending) and controversies (the Valerie Plame saga, domestic wiretapping), the Christian right generally gives Bush high marks because of two obscure men: John Roberts and Samuel Alito, Bush's conservative nominees for the Supreme Court.As we enter the twilight of Bush's presidency, the Christian right is now looking for Bush's successor. Given that the next vacancies on the Supreme Court are likely to come from liberal retirements (Justices Ginsburg and Stevens), one would think that Christian Republican voters would pay special attention to the current field of Republican presidential candidates and coalesce behind the candidate tha...
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Republicans and the Black Vote: Part 2
2007-11-13 05:52:00
Today I read that the Democrats would participate in another presidential debate on Martin Luther King Day. The debate, sponsored by the Congressional Black Caucus, reminded me of the Republican debate at Morgan State University in September which focused primarily on Black issues and how the four leading Republican presidential candidates did not attend because of "scheduling conflicts." These candidates' absences in turn reminded me of a blog I had written back in August about why Republicans generally had difficulty winning over Black votes. My point in that post was that ethnic minorities view the Republican Part y as hostile to their identities and that this feeling that their identities and concerns aren't valued trumps the other issues on which minorities and Republicans may agree.Political analyst Stuart Rothenberg took this issue to a whole new level in his excellent column addressing Republicans' difficulty winning over Black support. Part of his analysis reminded re...
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Hillary Clinton: A Second Warning to Democrats
2007-11-09 14:53:00
I found this Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll that has information that should give Democrats some pause:"By 50% to 35%, the poll shows, Americans prefer that a Democrat gets elected to succeed Bush next November. In a direct matchup of leading candidates, however, that margin shrinks to 46% for Clinton and 45% for Giuliani."Read that again. A generic Democrat significantly outperforms a generic Republican, but when that Democrat is named Hillary Clinton and she's up against a Republican named Rudy Giuliani, she can only manage a tie. In other words, there is a very real risk that Hillary Clinton will turn a very winnable election for Democrats into a third consecutive Republican presidency.A few months ago I wrote about how Hillary Clinton would be an unwise choice for Democrats. I argued that she would energize and unite a restive and fragmented GOP base, shrink the electoral map, create problems for other Democrats down the ballot, and have difficulty governing as president ...
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