ColdheartedtruthColdheartedtruthGroup Blog with over 350 members since 2002. Coldheartedtruth is a well establish election projection blog. Articles
A New Open Fucking Mic Already...
2008-03-20 17:24:00 ...Because I'm tired of waiting for thread of 200+ posts to load on my crappy dialup connection, and I'm tired of scrolling down through said 200+ posts. Good morning, and God Damn Obama.Original post blogged on b2evolution. More About: Open , Fucking , Proud
Polls moving to the right...
2008-03-20 16:22:00 While Obama still shows a small lead in my CCPA (weighted averages) the polls are definitely moving away from him. Both of the daily tracking polls show McCain opening up a lead and a recent Zogby poll showing Nader in the race shows McCain up 6 points. The timing is such that a couple of media polls just came out showing Obama in the lead. But CBS/NY times had Obama up 12 just a couple of weeks ago, and now the lead is down to 5. Likewise, CNN had Obama up 8 before and now they show a 1 point Obama lead. If you simply look at the latest 6 polls, McCain acually leads 46.2% to 44.8%. There is no doubt in my mind that the recent coverage of Obama and his church has changed the dynamic. But I think the other issue is that while the Democrats are in-fighting, John McCain is actually being allowed to define himself a little bit. According to Gallup, his favorabiity ratings are the highest in years at 67% - which is unusual considering your Presidential candidates usually have to deal w... More About: Moving , Polls
Polls moving to the right...
2008-03-20 16:22:00 While Obama still shows a small lead in my CCPA (weighted averages) the polls are definitely moving away from him. Both of the daily tracking polls show McCain opening up a lead and a recent Zogby poll showing Nader in the race shows McCain up 6 points. The timing is such that a couple of media polls just came out showing Obama in the lead. But CBS/NY times had Obama up 12 just a couple of weeks ago, and now the lead is down to 5. Likewise, CNN had Obama up 8 before and now they show a 1 point Obama lead. If you simply look at the latest 6 polls, McCain acually leads 46.2% to 44.8%. There is no doubt in my mind that the recent coverage of Obama and his church has changed the dynamic. But I think the other issue is that while the Democrats are in-fighting, John McCain is actually being allowed to define himself a little bit. According to Gallup, his favorabiity ratings are the highest in years at 67% - which is unusual considering your Presidential candidates usually have to deal w... More About: Moving , Polls
Stop the Presses!
2008-03-20 14:44:00 In the past few days, much has been said on the extreme leftist side about how conservatives and Republicans would have rejected Obama's attempts to defuse the Wright controversy no matter what explanation he offered. They claim we would have thought less of him if he defended Wright, and that we would have thought less of him if he threw Wright under the bus, leaving Obama in a Catch-22 situation. For once, you demented liberals got one right. We conservatives wouldn't have been satisfied with anything Obama said or did Tuesday. Obama's speech on Tuesday, March 18th, 2008, was too little, 20 years too late. You see, the time for Obama to wrestle with Wright's racist hate-mongering was 20 years ago when he first heard Wright preach, or when he was deciding whether or not to donate tens of thousands of dollars to Wright's church, or when Wright was performing his marriage ceremony, or when Wright was baptizing his children, or when he was calling Wright his spiritual mentor... More About: Post , Stop
Stop the Presses!
2008-03-20 14:44:00 In the past few days, much has been said on the extreme leftist side about how conservatives and Republicans would have rejected Obama's attempts to defuse the Wright controversy no matter what explanation he offered. They claim we would have thought less of him if he defended Wright, and that we would have thought less of him if he threw Wright under the bus, leaving Obama in a Catch-22 situation. For once, you demented liberals got one right. We conservatives wouldn't have been satisfied with anything Obama said or did Tuesday. Obama's speech on Tuesday, March 18th, 2008, was too little, 20 years too late. You see, the time for Obama to wrestle with Wright's racist hate-mongering was 20 years ago when he first heard Wright preach, or when he was deciding whether or not to donate tens of thousands of dollars to Wright's church, or when Wright was performing his marriage ceremony, or when Wright was baptizing his children, or when he was calling Wright his spiritual mentor... More About: Stop , Proud
This Is What We Are Talking About
2008-03-20 03:04:00 One of the phrases I have heard several times in the brouhaha over Senator Obama's association with Reverend Wright is "Black Liberation Theology." I had to wonder if it was any different than good old Marxist based Liberation Theology that was perhaps THE seminal world view of people like the Berrigan brothers and others like them. For those unfamiliar with Liberation Theology, it is a most unholy blend of Christianity and Marxism (which is really difficult, because Marxism is atheistic). This quote from the *Got Questions* site helps explain: "Liberation Theology is an attempt to interpret Scripture through the plight of the poor. It is largely a humanistic doctrine. It started in South America in the turbulent 1950's when Marxism was making great gains among the poor because of its emphasis on the redistribution of wealth, allowing poor peasants to share in the wealth of the colonial elite and thus upgrade their economic status in life. As a theology, it has very strong Rom... More About: Post , Talking
This Is What We Are Talking About
2008-03-20 03:04:00 One of the phrases I have heard several times in the brouhaha over Senator Obama's association with Reverend Wright is "Black Liberation Theology." I had to wonder if it was any different than good old Marxist based Liberation Theology that was perhaps THE seminal world view of people like the Berrigan brothers and others like them. For those unfamiliar with Liberation Theology, it is a most unholy blend of Christianity and Marxism (which is really difficult, because Marxism is atheistic). This quote from the *Got Questions* site helps explain: "Liberation Theology is an attempt to interpret Scripture through the plight of the poor. It is largely a humanistic doctrine. It started in South America in the turbulent 1950's when Marxism was making great gains among the poor because of its emphasis on the redistribution of wealth, allowing poor peasants to share in the wealth of the colonial elite and thus upgrade their economic status in life. As a theology, it has very strong Rom... More About: Talking
No Michigan Do-Over
2008-03-19 21:59:00 at least according to the politico... No Florida redo and now no Michigan redo. I think in some ways both candidates are pleased. More About: Notes
CHT 2.4.1 - A new look?
2008-03-19 15:58:00 http://coldheartedtruth.com/241/blog1.php Take a look and give me some feedback - keep in mind that this is a work in progress at this point in time. Think in terms of "potential". More About: Notes
Politics as Usual You Can Believe In
2008-03-19 15:14:00 The statements that Rev. Wright made that are the cause of this controversy were not statements I personally heard him preach while I sat in the pews of Trinity or heard him utter in private conversation. When these statements first came to my attention, it was at the beginning of my presidential campaign. --Obama on Huffington Post a few days ago Did I know him to be an occasionally fierce critic of American domestic and foreign policy? Of course. Did I ever hear him make remarks that could be considered controversial while I sat in church? Yes. Did I strongly disagree with many of his political views? Absolutely - just as I'm sure many of you have heard remarks from your pastors, priests or rabbis with which you strongly disagreed. --Obama's speech yesterday Oops. Different day, different tune. Barack H. Christ has promised to be the candidate of Change. His actions over the past few days show him to be the opposite. He's what I've always said he is--the candidate of Pol... More About: Politics
I have been paying my bills...
2008-03-18 19:21:00 The problem was not just a down server, but an actual server problem caused by an overload of one particular site on the server... which of course unfortunately is Coldheartedtruth. The issue is not so much in bandwidth as it is with my large percentage of CPU which is used because of the sort of php and other scripts used by blogging software. I am told I use up as much as 85% of the server's CPU. They ran some upgrades on the server in an attempt to help and I will do some tweaking on my end, including a possible upgrade to the latest and greatest versions of the blogging software. I will learn more in a couple of days. Worst case senario is that they want me to move up to a virtual private server which would cost approximately 3 times what I pay now. More About: Notes , Bills
The Obama Speech
2008-03-18 16:29:00 I'll give him credit for taking this one head on. He isn't walking away from Jeremiah Wright or the church. In fact, in many ways he worked overtime in the speech to attempt to somehow justify the comments that he also claims to condemn. Certainly the tone of the speech is one where he no longer seems to be playing the "I never knew" game, but rather he is moving into the "it's out of context", "you don't know the whole story", or "you take the good with the bad" or even the old "it's all just a distraction" game. While it certainly shows a principled willingless to stand by those close to him... one has to wonder how this plays out politically. There is no doubt in my mind that his supporters will melt once again at the mere words of the man and the wonderful story he can tell. But will it have the same effect at those who are actually looking for more tangible answers to the questions they have? More About: Truth , Obama , Speech
Why the Jeremiah Wright Trinity Church controversy matters?
2008-03-18 15:54:00 Like an ostrich burying his head in the sand, many Democratic talking heads are trying to play the recent Obama church controversy as much ado about nothing. If you watched any of the political talk shows over the weekend you saw the pattern develop. First is to agree that what Jeremiah Wright has said was outrageous and wrong; then make it clear that Obama has denounced these statements; then state for the record that we should leave it at that; then work to change the subject. It?s a nice clean line of rhetoric, but I am afraid it simply won?t work. The problem here is that the issue goes to the root cause of why Barack Obama is in the position that he is in. Barack Obama has created a groundswell of support by offering to the public that he is above the political, social, and racial fray. He offers himself as the sort of politician who can (among other things) teach the world to sing in perfect harmony. He has defended his lack of experience by touting his own superior judgment... More About: Truth , Church , Controversy , Trinity , Matters
Who was the Party of the Rich again?
2008-03-18 15:34:00 The top 100 political donors of the 2008 election cycle are listed in OpenSecrets.org . First, note how few of these big donors lean Republican: only 12 of the top 100. And the higher up the list (the bigger the donor), the fewer lean Republican. In fact, none of the top 15 donors leans Republican. Only four of the top 50 do. More statistics are at American Thinker. More About: Party , Rich , Post , The Party
A Michigan revote possible, but a Florida revote is off the table...
2008-03-18 14:14:00 All indications are that Michigan "might" hold a do-over sometime at the beginning of June, but that Florida will not. The possible Michigan do-over appears to be headed for sometime in early June and would hypothetially be funded by private donations. The plan at this point is to hold some sort of a primary. But they are warning that unless they get some sort of buy off from both campaigns in the next day or so, they may not be able to move forward. Apparently the Hillary camp has agree in principle to support the do-over, while the Obama camp is skeptical of the plan that would disqualify anyone who voted in the Republican primary from voting again. Their camp contends that many people who would have otherwise voted for him decided instead to support John McCain due to the fact that the Democratic contest did not count and Obama was not on the ballot. While that seems to be decent logic, I wonder out loud if that doesn't damage his credibility a bit. It's obviously a tough spot... More About: Notes , Table
The Nader effect?
2008-03-17 19:47:00 Zogby Poll: McCain Bests Both Obama, Clinton in 3-Way General Election Tests The introduction of long-time activist Ralph Nader into the mix is having an effect on the race, as he wins enough support to make a difference, the poll shows. Nader entered the race recently, charging that there is little difference between the Republican and Democratic parties and their presidential candidates. Using the same argument eight years ago, his presence on the ballot in Florida may well have tipped the presidential election away from Democrat Al Gore and in favor of George W. Bush. His run four years ago yielded less dramatic results, but the political atmosphere has changed since 2004, and may be more favorable for him again, the Zogby survey shows. FYI - Zogby poll from Febuary shows Obama with a comfortable 7 point lead. Not sure how much of this turnaround is in fact caused by Nader or just the changing of the situation. I am not sure right now whether to include polls with Nader as part... More About: President , Effect
SUSA - Coleman 51% Franken 41%
2008-03-17 19:00:00 Republican Incumbent Norm Coleman defeats any of his 3 remaining DFL challengers in an election for U.S. Senator from Minnesota today, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV Minneapolis. Today, it's Coleman 51%, comedian Al Franken 41%. When the DFL candidate is either Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer or Darryl Stanton, Coleman wins 2:1. Back to Franken: Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released one month ago, Coleman is up 4, Franken is down 5. All of that movement is with women. A month ago, Coleman trailed Franken by 12 among women. Today he leads by 5, a 17-point swing. Coleman holds 92% of his Republican base. Franken holds 75% of his Democratic base, but loses 18%, who cross-over. Independents break 6:5 for Coleman. For the past 3 months, Coleman and Franken had been tied in the Twin-Cities. Today, Coleman pulls ahead by 14 points. 700 state of Minnesota adults were interviewed 03/12/08. Of them, 644 were registered to vote. Women no longer lik... More About: Susa
Obama's recent bad publicity...
2008-03-17 14:56:00 I was looking at some of the polling over the weekend and noticed a fairly significant movement for John McCain in both the Rasmussen and Gallup daily tracking numbers. It would certainly appear as though this might have some correlation with the recent bad publicity that Obama has received over his association with both Tony Resko and the Reverend Jeremiah Wright. Of the two, I think the Reverend issue has hurt him the most and I think has the bigger potential for long term headaches. While it is never good to be associated with a crook, I don't think it does anything to reinforce any stereotypes that people might have about Obama. But the issue with the Reverend and his anti-American views are more harmful because it does play into the same theme that started when Michelle Obama made the comment about not being proud of America. Suddenly, when your wife and your spiritual councilor are both viewed as anti-American, it will cast doubts about your own patriotism. More to the poin... More About: Truth , Publicity , Recent
A Different Kind of Bear Market
2008-03-17 12:51:00 I'm sure this wasn't what Bear Stearns shareholders were worried about when they considered what might happen to them in a bear market. The investment firm, whose stock closd above $57 last Thursday, was purchased by JP Morgan Chase over the weekend for the whopping total of $2 a share (in JP Morgan stock, no less) as the growing lending crisis threatened to make Bear Stearns the Enron of the financial world. Bear Stearns was heavily exposed to losses from bad mortgage loans, and faced a serious liquidity crisis over the weekend. Had the company declared bankruptcy it would certainly have set off a ripple effect through the financial world, as other lenders who were owed money by Bear Stearns would have to basically write off those debts. More About: Market , Bear Market
Obama Wins Again in Iowa
2008-03-16 02:43:00 Barack Obama improved his expected number of delegates in Iowa in the second round of voting in that state as county conventions selected delegates for the next round of voting. If all of today's selected delegates maintain today's allegiances at later stages, Obama would win 23 of Iowa's 45 pledged national convention delegates, improving on the 16 delegates he was projected to receive when Iowa held its caucuses back in January - where today's voters were selected and given their voting instructions. Hillary Clinton would capture 16 delegates, improving from the 15 she was projected to win back in January, while John Edwards would capture the remaining 6 delegates (down from 14 in January). One of the things many people don't realize about Iowa's caucus system - for both parties - is that the candidate who ultimately gets the majority of the state's national delegates often isn't the one who won the state during its initial caucus round. Twenty-nine actual delegates wi... More About: Democrats , Wins
Alaska Lt. Gov. to Run Against Young
2008-03-14 22:23:00 Alaska Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell has announced that he will challenge Don Young , Alaska's lone House member, in the Republican primary this August. Young is under investigation by the Justice Department and polling has indicated he would have a difficult time in the fall election despite what appears to me to be a weak field of Democrats running for their nomination. A Parnell primary victory or a decision by Young to retire should make this seat an almost certain retention for Republicans. With Young as the presumed nominee, however, CQ, Cook, and Sabato all rate the race as Leans Republican while Rothenberg rates it as a very slight advantage for the Republicans. More About: Alaska
Bud Cramer to Retire
2008-03-14 21:48:00 AL-05 Representative Bud Cramer surprised his colleagues today by announcing that he will not seek reelection to a tenth term this fall. Cramer, a Democrat, was considered a lock in this district where Bush won 60% of the vote in 2004, but it will be extremely difficult for the Democrats to hold this seat in the fall. I expect that when the professional handicappers weigh in on this open seat race that they will initially give Republicans an advantage, pending a final definition of candidates. Cramer will also be surrendering a coveted seat on the House Appropriations Committee. More About: Retire
Mark Penn on Barack Obama
2008-03-14 19:07:00 "We believe that [the Pennsylvania primary result] will show that Hillary is ready to win, and that Sen. Obama really can?t win the general election." So it's becoming more and more clear that the Clinton strategy will be to tear down Obama to the point where people start to see him as a candidate who "really can't win the general election". Certainly at this point in the game the claim seems counterintuitive. Obama has recieved more votes, he is bringing in new voters, he is doing better with independents, he is gaining support even among Republicans, and most importantly has been consistently polling better than Clinton in head to head matchups with John McCain. The discussion points have to be.... How far is the Clinton camp going to go to prove this particular point? Can Clinton hammer Obama just enough so that he cannot win the general election, but not enough so that Hillary can claim the nomination? Will the Clinton name be scum if Obama wins the nomination, on... More About: Truth , Barack Obama , Barack , Mark
President Obama's First 100 Days
2008-03-14 13:28:00 Washington Post op-ed columnist Michael Gerson undertakes a thought experimenton foreign policy stupidity during a hypothetical President Obama's first 100 days in office, and its implications for geopolitics and international relations: Redeeming his inaugural pledge to "pay any price, bear any burden, fly any distance to meet with our enemies," Obama's first major international meeting is with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran. National security adviser Samantha Power does her best to talk tough on human rights in preparation for the meeting. But, as Henry Kissinger once said, "When talks become their own objective, they are at the mercy of the party most prepared to break them off." Having made Iranian talks "without precondition" his major foreign policy goal, Obama is left with little leverage to extract concessions, and little choice but to move forward. The New York Post runs a front-page picture of the Obama-Ahmadinejad handshake under the headline "Surrender Summit... More About: Days
What about the 3:05 AM phone call?
2008-03-14 13:20:00 Hillary Clinton (correctly) argues that she is the only candidate experienced enough to handle a 3:00 AM phone call to the White House. Obama has tried to claim that he has superior judgment that would render him for capable of handling the 3:00 AM phone call. Hillary Clinton's experience is a matter of record; it is important to similarly examine Obama's record to evaluate his claim of better judgment. Ed Lasky does just that in his American Thinker article, Senator Obama's Foreign Policy Judgment, and finds that Obama's record displays not a pattern of solid judgment, but rather a history of flip-flopping on the Iraq war that would make even John Kerry blush. Barack Obama claims to have been against the Iraq War from the beginning, and that this is an example of his superior judgment. Lasky uses Obama's own remarks to show otherwise (I've made a couple of minor formatting changes to Lasky's points in order to fit this blog, and adapted the order of events to be chronol... More About: Phone , Post , Call , Phone call
Is Iraq still a winner for the Democrats?
2008-03-14 13:19:00 This really isn't much of a question for the Republicans or for the Democrats . I suspect that both sides would look at this as sort of a wash. John McCain might lose a few Republicans over the war while Barack Obama might lose a few Democrats. Like everything else in modern national politics, this one is about the middle. Considering that usually you have a decent percentage of each subgroup undecided, it is pretty clear that for the first time in a long time you have at least a plurality of independents who support "staying the course". In response to this (and other polls showing similar results), the Obama camp has stated quite bluntly that they will not move away from their position of making a priority of ending our invoIraq . While just a few months ago, the left was beating the anti-war drum, confident that it was not only a winning issue, but "the" winning issue. Now it may end up not being much (if any) advantage at all. Now I have stated in the past that the anti-war mov... More About: Winner
Delegate Count
2008-03-13 19:46:00 Well I am now up to date with pledged delegates after AP reported the final delegate count from Colorado (which had been holding back 10 delegates). As it stands I have at least three sources for every state except Ohio/Texas (two sources), and Colorado/Democrats Abroad (1 source). There are also no real final total discrepancies right now between sources which is good. This might make me one of the few sources on the web to have accounted for (right or wrong) all pledged delegates up to this point in my totals. There has been little movement this week in the Superdelegate race according to the source I use (the only one willing to list everyone and give daily updates about who they are adding, changing, or subtracting from the totals). AP had a slightly higher delegate count for both Clinton and Obama, but for now I will stick with my source. My delegate count spreadsheet Superdelegate watch page More About: President , Count
Whitewater hypocrisy!
More articles from this author:2008-03-13 16:56:00 I was reading a post today in the Left Coaster where eriposte suggests that the Obama camp is being unfair by trying to bring up the whole Whitewater affair again. Apparently keeping with a major theme of the Clinton supporters out there, Obama is stooping to another "right wing" talking point attack line. At the end of the post, eriposte quips that the Obama supporter are so much like the GOP attack dogs that you should consider "the company they keep". One can only assume the "company" Obama is keeping in this case is the VRWC. Hmmm... I find this all to hypocritical from two different angles. First, how come it is fair for the Clinton camp to keep shoving Resko and Obama together every chance they get, but not fair for Obama to remind people that the Clintons had some serious involvement with a whole bunch of people who went to jail? Secondly, if judgement is about "the company you keep"... then isn't the fact that the Clinton's kept the company of people like the McDougals a ... More About: Truth , Hypocrisy 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 |
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