ColdheartedtruthColdheartedtruthGroup Blog with over 350 members since 2002. Coldheartedtruth is a well establish election projection blog. 
Articles
Was Ferraro right about Obama?
2008-03-13 14:15:00 Would he be in the same place right now if he was a 46 year old first term senator who happened to be White? Perhaps if he was David Vitter from Louisiana, the 46 year old Jr Senator who happens to be White? Now it could be that Obama is such a slick guy that it wouldn't matter what color is skin is. But does anyone really think that he would win 90% of the black vote against Hillary Clinton if he was white? Anyone think he would be ahead in the race right now without that 90% support from the black community? More About: Truth
McCain-Romney?
2008-03-12 23:33:00 Mitt Romney made comments yesterday that sound to me as if he's trying to get the vice presidential nomination in Minneapolis this summer. Frankly, given the clear distaste visible between Romney and John McCain during the primaries and Romney's weak bargaining position I don't see a McCain-Romney ticket happening. More About: Republicans
J' Accuse
2008-03-12 20:42:00 The FBI defines Terrorism as the unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives. The September 11, 2001 attacks by al-Qaeda upon the United States involved nineteen terrorists who hijacked four commercial airliners. They intentionally crashed two of the airliners into the World Trade Center, one plane into each tower, resulting in the collapse of both buildings. The hijackers crashed a third airliner into the Pentagon. Passengers and members of the flight crew on a fourth aircraft attempted to retake control of their plane from the hijackers, that plane crashed into a field near the town of Shanksville, PA. Aside from the 19 hijackers, 2,974 people died as an immediate result of the attacks. Another 24 people are missing and presumed dead, bringing the total number of victims to 2,998, the overwhelming majority of whom were civilia... More About: Post
Redo or not Redo... that is the question
2008-03-12 20:03:00 According to reports earlier today Florida was signaling that they were ready to move forward with a mail in primary vote to replace the earlier vote that didn't count. But since that report, we have seen other reports pretty much putting the kibosh on all of that. Not only is the Obama camp against a redo, the Hillary camp against a redo, but apparently the Democrats in the Florida legislation is also against a redo. I have to say that when push comes to shove the DNC has a difficult but yet easy decision to make. While it may cause some serious short term pain, they really have no choice but to enforce the rules that they put into place or they might as well not have any rules at all. If they give in to Michigan and Florida, then what prevents every state from moving up in 2012? It will be nothing more than a giant game of chicken regarding how early the process begins, and any threats from the DNC will be ignored by both the states (who know that there election will count any... More About: Question , President
Shitzer to Swallow Pride and Resign
2008-03-12 15:20:00 New York Democratic Governor Eliot Spitzer is scheduled to announce his resignation at a news conference in an hour or so, news sources report. Update It's official. Spitzer's resignation becomes effective Monday, when he will be succeeded by Lt. Gov. David Patterson. Patterson will be the first black governor of New York and also, I believe, the first legally blind governor of New York. More About: Resign , Pride , Swallow
Carson Wins Indiana Special Election
2008-03-12 15:06:00 Democrat André Carson yesterday won the open congressional seat vacated by his grandmother's death in a special election in Indiana 's 7th district, defeating Republican Jon Elrod and Libertarian Sean Shepard. I haven't seen final vote totals but Carson led Elrod by 9% with about 75% of the votes in when Elrod conceded. All three candidates are announced candidates for the general election for this seat as well, but both Carson and Elrod face opposition in the May 6 primary. Carson in particular faces several strong challengers from within his party, and I suspect will face a tougher fight in the primary than he will in the fall in this traditionally Democratic district. The candidates for this special election were selected by local party leaders, and Carson was far from a unanimous choice among the Democratic leaders. More About: Election , Special , Wins
Obama wins Mississippi
2008-03-12 14:13:00 Obama continued his dominance in the southern states with a 61%-37% win over Hillary Clinton. With 99% reporting he added almost 100,000 votes to his popular vote lead and appears to have won 19 of the 33 delegates (which would net him 5 on Clinton). Those trying to figure out a way that Hillary can somehow declare a popular vote victory were not likely considering the possibility that she would lose a state like Mississippi by 100K. To put it in perspective, the vote from yesterdays state nearly wipes out her popular vote victory from the much larger state of Texas. This should show you that it isn't just about winning states, but also about winning states big. Obama has been able to win several states by wide margins, while Clinton has struggled to find big wins. I doubt we will hear much more talk about the Hillary Clinton momentum leading into Pennsylvania. Of course, it's another six weeks before anyone actually heads into a voting booth to vote in Pennsylvania. Lots can h... More About: Obama , Notes , Wins
Ciresi Drops Senate Bid
2008-03-11 22:11:00 From CQPolitics: Democrat Mike Ciresi announced Monday he was terminating his campaign for Minnesota?s Senate race, clearing the path for former Saturday Night Live comedian Al Franken to win the party?s endorsement and take on Republican Sen. Norm Coleman in November. Ciresi said he was withdrawing to prevent a divisive contest. ?Continuing the endorsement race would only lead to an unnecessary floor fight. It is time to step aside,? he said in a statement on his campaign Web site. Franken has yet to make a public statement, but no doubt his initial response on learning this was "Doggone it, people like me!"
Caption contest
2008-03-11 17:21:00 Yeah... I know, this isn't exactly a new idea, but I couldn't resist! My Caption : "Time Magazine awards Two New Yorkers as being most likely to succeed in 2008" More About: Contest , Notes
Where the uncommitted superdelegates remain?
2008-03-11 17:14:00 I spent a bit of time today looking through the "The Green Papers" and creating a little spreadsheet showing which states still have uncommitted superdelegates and how many are in each state. Now, granted, "The Green Pages" has slightly different numbers than the source I use, but they are with a handfull of each other overall. Also, either from some sort of difference between their overall count and their individual counts, a problem with Microsoft Excel's ability to add, or god forbid some mistake on my part, the amount of delegates I calculated as being left 351 is actually three more than "The Green Papers" show in their totals. But as the saying goes... don't sweat the small stuff. What I found is that of the 351 uncommitted superdelegates: There are 147 left in the 28 contests (25 states, DC, Virgin Islands, Democrats Abroad) that Obama won There are 122 left in the 15 contests (14 states and America Samoa) that Clinton won There are 78 left in the 11 contests (9... More About: Truth
The Barack burn!
2008-03-11 13:36:00 "First of all, with all due respect, I've won twice as many states as Senator Clinton. I've won more of the popular vote than Senator Clinton, I have more delegates than Senator Clinton. So, I don't know how somebody who's in second place is offering the vice presidency to somebody who's in first place." Good point. BTW... The NY Times headline for the story is: "Obama Rejects Idea of Back Seat on Ticket". Is it just my imagination or is there a bit of the old "back of the bus" civil rights sort of implication to the wording? More About: Barack , Notes , Burn
Does This Mean We All Need To Get a Life?
2008-03-11 01:15:00 We who regularly read, comment, post or otherwise participate in politically oriented weblogs are in a fairly small, but presumably growing minority. So says Harris Interactive. http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080310/pl_nm /usa_politics_blogs_dc I say read, post or comment on! More About: Life , Post , Get a life
Mississippi tomorrow!
2008-03-10 20:33:00 Believe it or not, but there is a primary tomorrow starring the great state of Mississippi . At stake is another 33 precious delegates. Obama is expected to win this state and Hillary is hoping to win her fair share of the delegates. The funny thing is that if Obama would happen to win by a large enough margin to pick up 23 of the 33 delegates he would effectively win the month of March in terms of delegate count. Not likely to happen, but it does give you some perspective on how little Hillary really gained during the portion of the campaign where most believe she had her best results. More About: Democrats , President , Tomorrow
Spitzer Linked to Prostitution Ring
2008-03-10 19:44:00 Exactly how he's linked hasn't been revealed, but New York Governor Eliot Spitzer is scheduled to make an announcement this afternoon related to the matter. If his links aren't just as a client, then his career is over (and potentially his freedom). And if he was a client then he's going to have a real fight on his hands to keep his job in 2010. Update The New York Times, which apparently broke this story, reports that their source indicates that Spitzer was a client of a high-priced prostitution ring that was busted by federal prosecutors last week. More About: Prostitution , Ring
Subpoena vs executive privilege
2008-03-10 17:53:00 A little update on the congressional subpoena vs executive privilege lawsuit that Pelosi and gang were planning on filing. Well, apparently they did file a suit and the case landed in the lap of Judge John D. Bates of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. I would expect that the name John D Bates would not raise any eyebrows among the general public. But a little cursory research finds that John D Bates was appointed by George W. Bush (how convenient). Bates was also the judge who ruled in favor of Dick Cheney in that little argument he had with the General Accounting Office over the energy task force papers. In fact Bates ruled that the GAO did not have standing to even sue in the case... which is a similar to the how some legal experts believe that this case might go. In other words, it is now more likely than ever that the lawsuit filed by Pelosi and gang may end up being thrown out for "lack of standing"... something that could damage the ability of congress to... More About: Notes , Executive , Executive Privilege
Superdelegates
2008-03-10 15:46:00 Watching the media pundits argue about who will win the Democratic nomination it occurred to me that many of these people are actually terribly misinformed and have serious problems with logical thought process. One would think if what you do for a living is discuss politics on national television that you would do enough homework to have at least a basic understanding of what it is that you are discussing. I wonder some times when I see these panels of political experts, if you wouldn't get a similar show by filming 3 or 4 average citizens discussing politics around the office coffee machine. That's not to say that some of panels have people who truly are experts and truly have a broad understanding of the political process. But usually those people seem to be in the minority. The majority seem to be people who are simply there to provide opposite partisan views so that the panel discussion can get down and dirty. So I guess it wouldn't make sense (ratings-wise) to actually of... More About: Truth
Democrat Wins Hastert's Seat
2008-03-09 04:05:00 Democrat Bill Foster has defeated Republican Jim Oberweiss in the special election to determine a successor to former House Speaker Dennis Hastert, the AP projects. With more than 95% of precincts reporting Foster leads Oberweiss 52%-48% and holds a lead of 4,600 votes. The two will face off again in the fall general election in this traditionally Republican district in what should be another very competitive race. More About: Seat , Democrat , Wins
Here's an interesting one?
2008-03-08 22:35:00 If Democrats hold a second President ial Primary in Michigan, the race could be one of the most competitive all year. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that Hillary Clinton would attract 41% of the Primary Vote while Barack Obama would earn an identical 41%. Certainly if Obama could battle Clinton to somewhere near a tie in Michigan it would be worth his while to have the do-over. One has to wonder how dominant Clinton would really be in a state where she only won 55% against Dennis Kucinich and uncommitted. More About: Interesting
Obama to win Wyoming
2008-03-08 22:06:00 No checkmarks or calls at this point... but with 78% reporting Obama has a relatively comfortable 19 point lead in the Wyoming Caucus. According to the math it would appear that Obama will win 7 of the 12 pledged delegates for a net gain of 2. Not that this makes up for losing 3 of 4 on Tuesday... but it certainly is a start to quieting the "Hillary now has all the momentum" rhetoric. If she had really found that magic formula, one might think it would have also worked in Wyoming. Next is Mississippi, where Obama is currently leading by fairly significant margins and is looking to extend his pledged delegate lead by something the 5-7 range. More About: Democrats , President
Are They Just Jealous?
2008-03-08 13:09:00 Critics of John McCain--most of them Democratic Congressmen or Senators--have a new source of ire. It seems, according to these folks, that Senator McCain singlehandedly delivered the Air Force tanker deal to a foreign company, and with it 44,000 jobs. http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/MC CAIN_AIR_FORCE_TANKERS?SITE=IACED&SECTION =HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT Of course, if you read the entire article, the facts hardly bear that contention out, but since when have facts ever gotten in the way of a good candidate bashing session? So here are questions that apparently neither got asked nor answered (or if they did, the answers were ignored). Does any one Congressman or Senator, other than Robert Byrd, have the kind of influence ascribed to Senator McCain? Is the Pentagon not still required to solicit competitive bids for a multi-billion dollar contracts? How much outrage would there be had the contract gone to Boeing at a higher total price? Had the Senator turned a blind eye to ... More About: Post , Jealous
A Clinton implication?
2008-03-07 20:32:00 Clinton said, "I've had people say, 'Well I wish I could vote for both of you. Well, that might be possible some day. But first I need your vote on Tuesday." If I am reading this right... she is saying that it may be possible to have a Clinton/Obama ticket, but only if she is at the head of that particular ticket. It may even be her way of saying that she would be willing to unite the Democrats by putting him on as a running mate, while raising questions about whether or not it would work the other way around. The fact is that adding Obama to a Clinton ticket would probably help Clinton immensely. On the flip side I still see little or no intentions of Clinton actually accepting a VP spot even if offered... and I am even less convinced that Obama would actually want the whole Clinton albatross around his neck as he attempts to run on the idea of a bold change and turning the page. More About: Notes , Clinton
Do-overs?
2008-03-07 16:55:00 The buzz is heating up that Florida and Michigan may end up having some form of "do-over" contests that would take place possibly in June. Apparently neither candidate is 100% enthusiastic about this. Obama would obviously prefer that the DNC simply ignore those two states for breaking the rules. Anything at this point that upsets the apple cart is not good for Obama. He likes that 2025 number. Meanwhile Clinton still holds out some hope of actually seating those delegates based on the original vote. The results from those two states also help bolster her claims about popular vote and big state wins. She obviously risks a much poorer showing in Florida and Michigan than her original wins. What I am guessing is that the Clinton team will start warming up to the idea as time goes by. I don't think they will ever convince anyone to actually seat those delegates as they stand, and pushing back on a potential do-over would not help her make her political case. More to the point, a de... More About: Truth
SUSA Polling Suggests New Battleground States
2008-03-06 22:06:00 There's been a lot of discussion about 2008 party nominees "rewriting the map" electorally, shaking up the red-blue divisions that have dominated the last two elections and were coming into place for several elections prior to that. SurveyUSA has released the results of a state-by-state survey of potential fall election matchups based on interviews with 600 registered voters in each state. I've written a bunch of times that I'm not a fan of such analyses before the two parties' nominees are known (and RV polls tend to be more favorable to Democratic candidates than LV polls), but since the results this time suggest some intriguing possibilities for battleground states I thought I'd write a post on it. In a potential matchup of McCain versus Obama McCain leads in the blue states of Pennsylvania and New Jersey while Obama leads in the red states of Virginia, Ohio, North Dakota, Nevada, and Colorado. Additionally, Obama leads in two of Nebraska's three CD's (caveat: there's... More About: President , Polling , States , Susa
Quote of the day
2008-03-06 18:56:00 ?Clinton hasn?t had to answer the phone at three o?clock in the morning and yet she attacked Barack Obama for not being ready,'? Ms. Rice said. ?They?re both not ready to have that 3 a.m. phone call.? Susan Rice, Obama Foreign Policy Advisor Fire up that "dream ticket!" More About: Quote Of The Day , Post , Quote
It's the superdelegates, stupid!
2008-03-06 16:45:00 Reading a lot of this nonsense from plenty of different people, but I think Turkana from The left Coaster is probably the best example I can find. The most basic fact that everyone needs get through their heads is that the superdelegates are going to decide the Democratic nomination. Neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama will win enough pledged delegates to clinch it. The key, then, for both candidates, will be the ability to make the case that they best represent the will of the Democratic voters. Obama supporters who now obsessively point to the current pledged delegate count, insisting that Clinton cannot catch him, miss the point entirely. Obama is not going to win on pledged delegates. No... actually the most basic fact that everyone needs to get through their heads is that the person with the most overall delegates will win the nomination. That means the candidate with the most combined pledged and superdelegates will win. The simpleton argument that it will all come do... More About: Stupid , Notes
Obama's Saddam Connection?
2008-03-06 13:46:00 Forget about his middle name. This article details a plausible connection between Barack Obama and Saddam Hussein, via Rezco and Rezco's Oil for Food connections. Read it and weep. Obama's Iraqi Oil for Food connection More About: Connection , Post
Special Elections Rundown
2008-03-06 01:51:00 There presently are 6 vacancies in the U.S. House of Representatives, and over the next several weeks special elections will be held to determine who serves out the remainder of those terms. The former incumbent's party has the advantage in each of the races, but only three of the races are considered safe retentions. Here's a quick rundown of the six special elections. CA-12 April 8 open primary, June 3 potential runoff Five candidates are vying to replace the late Tom Lantos in this overwhelmingly Democratic district. Jackie Speier, who was endorsed by Lantos for the general election before he died, is a heavy favorite to succeed him in the special election. Should any candidate receive 50% of the vote in the open primary that candidate will win the election outright, otherwise the top finishers from the Democratic, Republican, and Green parties will square off in the runoff. IL-14 March 8 Republican Jim Oberweiss faces off against Democrat Bill Foster for former House S... More About: Elections , Special , A House , Rundown
Carol Miller Enters NM-03 Race
More articles from this author:2008-03-06 00:30:00 Carol Miller , the Green Party candidate who siphoned off nearly 20% of the vote in a 1997 special election in New Mexico's third district, enabling Bill Redmond to become the first (and so far only) Republican to represent the district, announced yesterday that she would run for the open seat once again this year, only this time as an Independent. I generally like FBIHOP's take on this, who dismisses Miller as being as irrelevant to the third district race this year as that other former Green Party spoiler, Ralph Nader, should be to the presidential race. I don't think Miller is quite as toothless a candidate as Nader (nor as long in the tooth) but she figures to be a footnote to the election this year. Unless, that is, the Democrats nominate another Eric Serna, their nominee from 1997 who has the indignity of being the only Democrat to ever lose in the 3rd district (and who was one of those arrested in the local corruption investigation which has drawn national attention beca... More About: Race , Carol 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 |
|
 |
|
 |
