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March 4th FINAL*
2008-03-05 19:02:00
Texas: Clinton 97-96 (+1) Ohio: Clinton 76-65 (+11) Rhode Island: Clinton 13-8 (+5) Vermont: Obama 9-6 (+3) Total: Clinton 192-178 (+14) *Totals could change
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Worst possible scenario for the Democrats - II
2008-03-05 18:40:00
It occurred to me that last night's results might have exposed an even worse scenario than any of the ones listed on the previous post. It may have exposed the fact that Obama is not nearly as electable as people once believed he was. If you break down what happened last night it points to a couple of alarming points. The first is that in spite of out spending Clinton somewhere around 3-1 Obama could not close the deal. Granted, these were good states for Clinton, but if Obama has the universal appeal that his fans suggest then spending three times his opponent should have helped him get his appeal out there. In fact, while he cut the lead in both states, ultimately he lost among those he would need in a general election. The second alarming point is that late deciding voters overwhelmingly went for Clinton in both Texas and Ohio (which has been a fairly consistent trend). After storming back from double digit deficits in both states, Obama had led polls in both Texas and Ohi...
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Worst possible scenario for the Democrats
2008-03-05 15:41:00
I would argue that last night's results could not have been worse for the Democrats . While there is some suggestions that an extended nomination process will help the Democrats by keeping them in the news, allowing them to organize in the upcoming states and all that good nonsense, the reality is that there are several reasons why last night was bad. Let me explain. First and foremost, let's forget about the idea that last night was some sort of breakthrough for Hillary and she is now the comeback Clinton charging to the nomination. Not going to happen. No matter how hard the Clintons and her supporters will try to spin last night's results "politically", the reality is that March 4th was her best (and second to last) opportunity to make tangible inroads in the delegate count. She didn't do it. The contest is now effectively 85% over with only a handful of opportunities left for her to even use whatever newfound momentum she might have gained. More to the point, there is a be...
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Ohio goes to Clinton - only thing left is the margin
2008-03-05 05:11:00
Picking up where Indy left off... Even though I expected her to do well, I think this turning out to be a slightly better night than I expected for Clinton . The Ohio win looks to be significant, and she seems to be pulling away a bit in Texas. Whether she can parlay this into a big delegate win tonight will be the ultimate question. While the rest of the political world seems to act like the race is not 85% over, the reality is that this is ultimately a delegate contest in which Clinton is significantly behind. No argument about late momentum or having a moral claim to the nomination can trump the count when the delegates vote at the convention. 10:09 CST Texas 39% reporting - Clinton 50% Obama 49% (13K lead) Ohio 63% reporting - Clinton 57% Obama 41% (206K lead) 10:43 CST Texas 54% reporting - Clinton 50% Obama 48% (47K lead) Ohio 72% reporting - Clinton 56% Obama 42% (223K lead) Delegates from tonight - Clinton 92 Obama 72 11:09 CST Texas 64% reporting - Clinton 50% Ob...
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Exit Polls Suggest Three Close Democratic Races
2008-03-05 02:56:00
Obama got a quick call in Vermont, but there's been no such call in Ohio, nor are there expected to be in Rhode Island and Texas when those polls close in a few minutes if the exit polls are to be believed. Texas has apparently released the early voting totals on the Democratic side, which give Obama a lead of 115,000 votes out of about 860,000 cast. 7:10 MST Sean is liveblogging the results over at Race42008 and I'll echo his frustration with the glacial pace of vote counting in Ohio. Polls closed there an hour ago but they've got only 31,000 votes reported from 1% of the precincts. Meanwhile, in Texas they've got about 960,000 votes out of the first 2% of precincts. Obama's lead is down to 87,000 in Texas, while Clinton leads in the tiny sample from Ohio. No immediate call in Rhode Island or Texas. 7:20 MST I'll note that Rhode Island now leads Ohio 4% to 3% in terms of precincts reporting, despite the one hour head start granted to the Buckeye State. Texas lags with...
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McCain Should Go Over the Top Tonight
2008-03-05 02:16:00
It depends on just how you count delegate commitments, but John McCain should reach the magic number of 1,191 pledged delegates tonight in most agencies' counts. There are 259 delegates at stake in four states, and most counts have McCain at around 1,000 delegates presently. The only exception to the "McCain over the top" projection I can find is at The Green Papers, who list McCain as having only 903 delegates to date. He's already projected as the winner of Vermont's 17 winner-takes-all delegates and of the 31 Ohio delegates awarded to the statewide winner there, and will probably win all of the remaining 54 delegates at stake there by winning each of the state's 18 congressional districts. He should also wind up with all of Texas' 41 statewide delegates at stake by winning more than 50% of the vote statewide and should also get either 2 or 3 delegates from each of the state's 32 congressional districts this evening (3 if he gets 50% or more of the vote, 2 if he merely g...
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Gary Gygax Fails His Final Saving Throw
2008-03-04 23:35:00
Dungeons & Dragons co-creator Gary Gygax died this morning at his Lake Geneva, Wisconsin home after battling declining health for several years. Condolences go out to his wife, children, and friends on his passing.
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Is the shine coming off the Obama polish?
2008-03-04 19:56:00
An exasperated Barack Obama scurried away Monday from the toughest news conference of his campaign, telling reporters who kept shouting questions that he'd spent enough time on the grill. "Come on! I just answered, like, eight questions," Obama, looking surprised, told shouting reporters as he fled the room. "We're running late." I was hoping to wait until the youtube video came out... but for now I guess the quote will have to do.
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Quote of the Day
2008-03-04 16:10:00
For once I agree with HRC (h/t Q&O): ?I think that I have a lifetime of experience that I will bring to the White House. Sen. John McCain has a lifetime of experience that he?d bring to the White House. And Sen. Obama has a speech he gave in 2002.? -Hillary Rodham Clinton
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Five Reasons - Part II
2008-03-04 13:00:00
Five Reasons Why McCain will win 1) Values: The idea that in a Presidential election Americans vote for the person they would most want to sit down and have a beer with is a half-truth. It tells a particular story, but not quite the right story. In reality the American public will usually vote for the person who they honestly feel shares their values with them. In most cases, that is the same person that they would want to sit down and have a beer with, but for all practical purposes the two things are more coincidence. I do believe that at the end of the day that more Americans will at least want to say they share the same values as John McCain. He is a good old-fashioned pro-life Christian, who believes in god, family, and country. He comes across as a humble man who is an unashamed patriot and genuinely seems to believe that running for President is an honor and a privilege. The truth is that Obama has a tendency to come across as much more arrogant, and his campaign to this ...
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Polls breaking for Clinton
2008-03-03 21:48:00
OHIO Polls ter Clinton Obama Rasmussen 03/02/08 50 44 Suffolk 03/02/08 52 40 Zogby 03/02/08 45 47 Quinnipiac 03/02/08 49 45 Plain Dealer 03/02/08 47 43 SUSA 03/02/08 54 44 PPD 03/02/08 51 42 Columbus Disp 02/29/08 56 40 FOX news 02/28/08 46 38 Ohio Poll 02/24/08 47 39 49.7 42.2 7.5 That's a twelve, ten, nine, six, and a pair of four point leads for Clinton from the weekend polls. Only Zogby still shows Obama gaining. Texas Pollster Obama Clinton Zogby 03/02/08 47 44 Rasmussen 03/02/08 48 47 PPD 03/02/08 44 50 SUSA 03/02/08 49 48 Insider Adv 03/02/08 44 49 Belo Track 03/01/08 46 46 Star-Telegram 02/29/08 46 45 FOX news 02/28/08 48 45 CNN 02/24/08 50 46 46.9 46.7 0.2 Again... there are two new polls showing a six and a five point Hillary lead. Polls that used to show Obama leading. Analysis? I am going to say this...
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Clinton's University of Toledo Rally Draws Few
2008-03-03 18:19:00
One day to go before Ohio goes to the polls to choose between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. In the past month, Clinton has gone from a certain double-digit lead over Obama to uncertainty. Two recent polls are in conflict: the Columbus Dispatch pegs Clinton with a 16 point lead while the Cleveland Plain Dealer indicates a statistical tie. Last Sunday (2/24) Barack Obama visited The University of Toledo's Savage Hall (the largest auditorium facility on campus). The line stretched across campus and over the Ottawa River. In the end, a few thousand were turned away because the hall was packed. Today marks the first day of Spring Break, one of the earliest Spring Breaks I have ever heard of. I cannot help but recall that age old college tradition of taking the trip to a lower latitudes,spending a lazy week on the Gulf coast. But back in my day we were not on a semester system, and spring break fell on the last week of March. Nowadays, these students get to celebrate spring weeks b...
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The Last minute voter -
2008-03-03 16:26:00
One of the more constant themes during the Democratic Primary is that Hillary seems to start states with big leads, Obama cuts into them or even overtakes her as the campaign moves into that state... and then there is sort of a mini-come back for Clinton as last minute voters fall down in her favor. If this holds true tomorrow I would expect Hillary to hang on in Ohio and I would expect Texas to be extremely close. Already the pendulum is starting to swing back in Hillary's favor a bit as she crept up in the polls over the weekend. In Ohio, late breaking polls from Rasmussen and Suffolk show her lead growing, while only Zogby shows the race still moving in Obama's direction. I suspect that Zogby (as the single outlier) is probably wrong as they were wrong about Obama in California. In fact there were two polls released over the weekend showing Clinton with a double digit lead in this state. My average shows a lead of almost 7 points for Hillary, and a victory by around that ma...
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Five Reasons - Part I
2008-03-03 13:00:00
I have come up with five reasons why Barack Obama will win and five reasons why John McCain will win. I figure I will get plenty of feedback on exactly why I might be wrong or right. Part one is the reasons why Obama will win. Tomorrow I will post part II (or the five reasons McCain will win). Five Reasons Why Obama will win 1) The issues: I have made the argument over and over that the easiest way to win an election is to campaign on issues in which the general public already agrees with you. Far too often the Democrats have campaigned on the sort of issues that first require them to convince people that they are right. If people don?t want their taxes raised in July, it?s unlikely you will convince them otherwise by November. But in 2008 they seem to have some issues out there where they are in tune with the public thinking. Most believe that the economy is headed south and most do not hesitate to put the blame on the GOP. The majority believes that the Democrats are t...
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Very Clever
2008-03-03 00:57:00
Florida Governor Charlie Crist said he'd support a repeat of the Democratic presidential primary so the state's delegates can be counted at the party's national convention. Of course he would... he's a Republican. What better than to have a Democratic primary redo in Florida where Clinton once won by a very impressive margin. After all it just might be the exact sort of incentive needed to keep Hillary Clinton in the race a little longer. It probably doesn't change the nominee (I think that state ends up much closer if not an Obama win the second time around) but it could help John McCain by dragging out the Democratic race a little longer. He might suggest something a couple weeks after Pennsylvania, in order to keep this thing going at least into May.
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A plug for Hillary?
2008-03-02 17:15:00
Most females lie "more cleverly and successfully than men" about everything from cheating on their spouses and shopping binges to barhopping and facelifts, according to a new book published this week. Certainly we want our executives to be able to lie and get away with it... right?
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When all else fails... Sue!
2008-03-01 21:32:00
Attorney General Michael Mukasey refused Friday to refer the House's contempt citations against two of President Bush's top aides to a federal grand jury. Mukasey said White House Chief of Staff Josh Bolten and former presidential counsel Harriet Miers committed no crime. As promised, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced that she has given the Judiciary Committee authority to file a lawsuit against Bolten and Miers in federal court. "The American people demand that we uphold the law," Pelosi said. "As public officials, we take an oath to uphold the Constitution and protect our system of checks and balances and our civil lawsuit seeks to do just that." Apparently Nancy Pelosi believes that in the middle of an election year the American public demands this particular action from the Democrats? I mean what could possibly be more important than whether or not Nancy Pelosi can subpoena Bush aids to ask them about something that happened back in 2006. It would be one thing if they wa...
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The Economy
2008-02-28 17:27:00
Let me preface this by saying that I don't believe that the economy is particularly strong right now. But yet I don't believe we are headed for any great depression anytime soon either. My point about all of this has to do with one particular single word... recession. Already I have heard some people suggest that the final numbers from Q4 (showing GDP growth at 0.6%) go a long ways to prove that we are currently in a recession. Many of these same people will either avoid any technical definition of the word, or they will reference the actual definition as if it only implies some minority opinion on the subject. The reality is that the term recession has always been regarded as consecutive quarters of continuous GDP contraction. In other words, the economy has to be shrinking rather than growing and it has to do so for consecutive quarters. Back in the 80's when I went to college I seem to recall that my economics books taught us that it was actually three consecutive quarters, ...
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Maybe we got it all wrong?
2008-02-28 15:07:00
The main story line following this week's Democratic debate was that Hillary did well, but not well enough. There was talk that she simply wasn't aggressive enough and I personally believe she blew a couple of opportunities to stick it to Barack. Certainly conventional wisdom at this point is that Hillary has to really do something substantial and do it fairly fast or she is pretty much toast. The debate was supposed to be her last best opportunity to change the race. Now that she didn't it's just a matter of time. But what if the Hillary camp simply doesn't see it that way? Perhaps her idea is simply to weather the storm and hope that any late momentum for her will be enough to capture the nomination. After all, it's only February and their convention is not until August. That leaves a lot of time before now and then for those Superdelegates to live through some serious buyers remorse about Obama. Keep in mind that there is no realistic mathematical way for Obama to get to 2...
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Just for Fun--and My Mom Told Me To!
2008-02-28 01:22:00
Take a break from the political wars and enjoy this one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anSpBUxsgA Uke
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An Early Look At Competitive House Races
2008-02-27 22:44:00
The November elections are just over eight months away, and it?s not too early to start looking at the 435 House races to see which are likely to be the most competitive. At this time I?ll rely solely on ratings done by four professional handicappers to rate races: CQPolitics, Cook Political Report, Rothenberg Political Report, and Larry Sabato. A total of 92 races are identified by at least one of these four handicappers as being less than safe for the incumbent party (i.e. being somewhat competitive), although this total includes three races for seats which are presently open and for which the rating may change once special elections are held. Of the remaining 89 races, 11 have been identified as less than safe by only a single handicapper, and a number of others are considered safe by one or two of the handicappers. However, there are 31 races where there is agreement among the pros that the seat at best leans towards being retained by the party which currently holds it. The...
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Ralph Nader: End Game for Clinton
2008-02-27 17:18:00
While I was sitting at the Stewart-Newburgh terminal last Monday morning, I saw on the television that Ralph Nader has once again thrown his hat into the presidential ring. At first I thought of it as another Quixotic campaign by this consumer advocate the 70s forgot, but then I got to thinking about the 2000 election, and how some accused Nader of siphoning enough votes off of Gore to sway the election (even though the statistics never backed up this claim). In 2004, Nader's presidential campaign had lost a lot of tractions because of this perception.But today, would anyone support Nader for president. I mean, isn't the guy a modern day Pat Paulsen? Not if Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic Party nomination for president. Even if Clinton carries both Ohio and Texas this Tuesday and then later gets Pennsylvania, she will not gain enough of a margin of victory to make a difference between hers and Barack Obama's delegate count. Since the Democratic party splits their delegates ...
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The Debate
2008-02-27 15:06:00
I actually have to admit to watching some of the debate last night. What I found was that either Hillary Clinton is afraid to really go after Barack Obama or she is simply not quick enough on her feet to do so. If I had to pick one example that typified this, I think the whole Trinity Church Louis Farahkan deal was a wasted opportunity for her. She had a chance to not only call him out on this particular issue, but also to in many ways call him out in general. Now some are actually giving her credit for following up a little bit on the issue and "pressing" him. But she has to do more than press, she has to follow through to the conclusion. Her line about not just denouncing the whole Farahkan deal but actually rejecting it was actually fairly significant if she had completed the thought. Unfortunately for her, Obama sort of casually sidestepped her challenge and she simply wouldn't or couldn't follow up. From what I watched of the debate last night it really was the first time ...
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Immigrants less criminal than citizens
2008-02-27 05:26:00
Among other findings in the report, non-citizen men from Mexico 18 to 40 -- a group disproportionately likely to have entered the United States illegally -- are more than eight times less likely than U.S.-born men in the same age group to be in a correctional institution (0.48 percent vs. 4.2 percent). Study finds immigrants commit less California crime This demolishes the claims that illegal immigrants have no respect for our nation's laws, that they're a threat to public safety, etc. Apparently they have more respect for our laws than we do; the only laws they have a problem with are our xenophobic immigration laws. Now that this myth has been debunked, maybe the American people can start to seriously address the real reason behind the immigrant scare--racism.
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Some fine points, might I add!
2008-02-26 17:01:00
From: Flexner, Allison Sent: Tuesday, February 19, 2008 7:46 AM To: *CNN Superdesk (TBS) Subject: Castro guidance Some points on Castro ? for adding to our anchor reads/reporting: * Please say in our reporting that Castro stepped down in a letter he wrote to Granma (the communist party daily), as opposed to in a letter attributed to Fidel Castro. We have no reason to doubt he wrote his resignation letter, he has penned numerous articles over the past year and a half. * Please note Fidel did bring social reforms to Cuba ? namely free education and universal health care, and racial integration. in addition to being criticized for oppressing human rights and freedom of speech. * Also the Cuban government blames a lot of Cuba?s economic problems on the US embargo, and while that has caused some difficulties, (far less so than the collapse of the Soviet Union) the bulk of Cuba?s economic problems are due to Cuba?s failed economic polices. Some analysts would say the US embarg...
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Media Polls vs Pollster Polls - RV vs LV
2008-02-26 16:46:00
There have been four general election match up polls that ended on the 24th. As luck would have it, we had two media polls (AP/Ipsos and CBS/NY Times) and two pollsters (Gallup and Rasmussen). Not too surprisingly the media polls both used registered voters while the two pollster polls used likely voters. So what did those polls find? AP/Ipsos and their RV poll shows Obama with a large 10 point lead over McCain at 51%-41%. CBS/NY Times shows a similar result at 50% for Obama to a paltry 38% for McCain (12 point lead). Looking at those polls, the race isn't even close. But if we move over to the LV polls, Gallup shows McCain ahead 48%-47% while Rasmussen shows the Republican leading the Democrat 46%-43% (the tracking polls now shows it at 46%-44% for McCain, but the point is the same). So how do we account for such a difference? Well the Gallup poll actually suggests that when they use the RV model that Obama (not McCain) is actually leading. But McCain picks up five points wh...
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House Declares 2006 Elections Over
2008-02-26 16:02:00
Who says this Congress never gets anything done? It only took 16 months, including 14 of the 24 months of the 110th Congress, but the House today has finally declared the 2006 elections over, rejecting the challenge of Democrat Christine Jennings to the seating of Republican Vern Buchanan in Florida's 13th congressional district. It's rumored that Congress is now ready to turn its attention to other important matters such as the Free Silver Act and the proposed entry of the United States into the League of Nations.
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Rasmussen - Rhode Island
2008-02-26 15:22:00
Clinton 53% - Obama 38% An interesting poll from a state that nobody is really paying much attention to. But Rhode Island is part of the Mini-Super Tuesday that plays out next week (the other is Vermont). The reality is that the more states Clinton can claim on Tuesday, the more she can suggest that her momentum is back and the more likely it is that she will stay in the race. Even the 21 delegate Rhode Island can be chalked up as a win. Win that and Ohio and she at least comes out with a draw?
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CNN poll
2008-02-26 15:11:00
The left is all up in arms over a recent CNN online poll that asked the question: "Does Barack Obama show the proper patriotism for someone who wants to be president of the United States?" Apparently this was a biased question and now firmly puts CNN under the long arm of the vast right wing conspiracy. I liked Bill from Kos actually using the CNN self imposed idea that they are the "most trusted name in news" as fodder for why they shouldn't be in the business of running trashy polls. Well let me agree with Bill on one bit. CNN really has no business claiming that they are the most trusted name in news if they can no longer be trusted by the only people (far left) who actually trusted them before. The rest of us figured out quite a while ago that CNN was probably the most politically biased and immature of any news network station. I would have to disagree with Bill on the lionshare of his outrage, however. I actually believe that this is a legitimate question to ask American...
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Clinton lead in Ohio solid - Texas closing
2008-02-26 14:25:00
Ohio Pollster Date Clinton Obama Ohio Poll 02/24/08 47% 39% Quinnipiac 02/23/08 51% 40% Rasmussen 02/21/08 48% 40% SUSA 02/18/08 52% 43% ABC/WashP 02/20/08 50% 43% 49.6% 41.0% +8.6% Texas Pollster Date Clinton Obama Rasmussen 02/24/08 46% 45% CNN 02/24/08 46% 50% ABC/Wash P 02/20/08 48% 47% SUSA 02/18/08 50% 45% Insider Adv 02/14/08 48% 41% IVR/TCUL 02/13/08 49% 41% 47.8% 44.8% +3.0% It is looking more and more like March 4th will end up being a wash for the Clinton campaign. I think she will hold on in Ohio, but it appears that she will likely at least lose the delegate count from Texas, which would all but mathematically eliminate her from gaining the amount of pledged delegates she needs to win. Her best hope is to keep the delegate count fairly close, win the popular vote in Texas, use the lull in the Obama momentum to hang on till April 22nd ...
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