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CQ Changes NM Senate Rating to Leans Democratic
2008-02-12 01:26:00
CQPolitics has changed its rating on the New Mexico Senate race from No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic in response to strong campaign finance reports for Democrat Tom Udall and new polls showing Udall leading both Republican contenders, Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson, by more than 20 points. The two Republicans will face off in a June 3 primary to determine which will be the nominee. This is a very reasonbable change on their part, imo. Some may feel that a polling lead of 20+ points should warrant a stronger designation, but (1) it's still relatively early in the process and (2) the pollster, New Mexico State University, has not been a regular pollster of political races in the past and so has no real track record against which their accuracy can be evaluated. This is the second Senate race for which CQ Politics says a party change is more likely than a retention. The other race is for the open Virginia seat which they rate as Democrat Favored.

Hillary Supporters Falling into three categories:
2008-02-12 01:24:00
As it starts to become clear that Obama not only has the momentum, but that it is starting to look like his race to lose, the Clinton supporters seem to be appearing to be almost in various stages of grief. I see them all taking different approaches, but they all seem to settle into one of three various categories: Denial: These are those who continue to write and talk as if Hillary is still the front runner. I just read an article from someone "today" who actually suggested that Ohio or Texas was a must win for Obama because if one candidate (presumably Clinton) won both of those states they could start to talk and behave as if they are the presumptive nominee. Seriously. I also read just today that recent results are proving Bill Clinton's South Carolina strategy of making this about race is working. Ahem. When listening to these folks, you usually will hear a lot about how Hillary has won the states that matter, while downplaying the fact that Obama has won nearly twice as m...
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R.I.P. Tom Lantos
2008-02-12 01:16:00
Rep. Tom Lantos , who had earlier announced he would retire at the end of the current congressional term due to esophogeal cancer, has succumbed to the disease. Condolences go out to Lantos' family and friends. Lantos' CA-12 seat is a heavily Democratic district and has been rated as safe for retention by the Democrats in all the sites I've visited.
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Polling - Chesapeake Primaries
2008-02-12 00:53:00
Maryland Pollster Obama Clinton SUSA 2/10 55% 32% Mason Dix 2/8 53% 35% Rasmuss 2/7 57% 31% Average 55.0% 32.7% +22.3% Virginia Pollster Obama Clinton SUSA 2/10 60% 38% Mason Dix 2/8 53% 37% Rasmuss 2/7 55% 37% Inside Adv 2/7 52% 37% Average 55.0% 37.3% +17.7% Maryland Pollster McCain Huckabee SUSA 2/10 52% 26% Mason Dix 2/8 54% 23% Average 53.0% 24.5% +18.5% Virginia Pollster McCain Huckabee SUSA 2/10 48% 37% Mason Dix 2/8 55% 27% Average 51.5% 32.0% +19.5% Seems sort of odd to me that Obama is leading Clinton by bigger numbers than McCain is leading Huckabee?
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AP/Ipsos Rasmussen should be embarrassed!
2008-02-11 22:42:00
Look... with 32 of the 51 states (if you include D.C. as a state) having already voted... and the popular vote being pretty much even... and Obama leading in every upcoming state for the next two weeks... How is it that AP-Ipsos and Rasmussen can claim that Democrats across America are giving a six point edge to Hillary Clinton? People... Pollsters... Pundits... you cannot reinvent the wheel here. Most of America has already spoken, why do these pollsters insist on second guessing the results?
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Pelosi and Reid, why they hurt the Dems
2008-02-11 22:12:00
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/stor y/18349197/the_chicken_doves Mike Taibi has written a scathing article that points out the lack of leadership and follow through the democratic party has exhibited in congress. As the democratic candidates try to inspire Democrats the congressional leadership of Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi have completed a political collapse just one year after being swept into power with a supposed mandate. Reid explained his decision to refocus the party's energy on topics other than ending the war by saying he just couldn't fit Iraq into his busy schedule. Pelosi and other congressional heavyweights expressed deep sadness that their valiant charge up the hill of change had been thwarted by circumstances beyond their control. "We'll have a new president in 2009," said Pelosi. "And I do think at that time we'll take a fresh look at it." The story of how the Democrats betrayed the voters who handed them both houses of Congress a year ago could lead ...
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Talk about Superdelegates:
2008-02-11 19:08:00
One of the things I like to do is check to see how the various blogs are reacting when the going get's tough for their favorite candidates. Obviously it has become apparent that mighty momentum is on the side of Barack Obama and the Hillary fans are starting to get a bit desperate. Today, the Left Coaster (die hard Hillary supporters for the most part) had a post where the writer suggested the possibility of two things happening: 1) That whichever candidate wins a state, should get that state's Superdelegates. There would be no real consideration to what margin the state was won by. A 10 point victory in California would garner Clinton the 71 Superdelegates, while the 38 point victory in Georgia would give Obama their 16 Superdelegates. 2) That the Superdelegates should support not the winner of the most pledged delegates or the winner of the most states, but rather the candidate who receives the largest "popular vote". Let me also explain that the tone of the article suggest...
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Why Indy is right...
2008-02-11 17:14:00
Over the weekend Indy made the prediction that Obama would win the Democratic nomination. It seems like a pretty good bet and actually a fairly popular bet as well according to Intrade (who shows Barack Obama at 70% to win vs Hillary Clinton at 30%). Of course who am I to judge? After all I projected months ago that it would be a Giuliani/Clinton contest and I was pretty confident about it. But at the time I think I was more confident that neither Romney or Obama would hold up. I was certainly right about Romney, but simply wrong about which moderate security hawk would beat him. It turns out that I was dead wrong about Obama who has shown quite the ability to get going when the going gets tough. The problems with Obama, both petty and substantial, have not hurt him so far in the Democratic primary. Nobody seems to have much of an issue voting for a guy with a Muslim dad and the middle name of Hussein. People are still voting for him, even as his lack of policy specifics have been...
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Spreadsheet for Delegates
2008-02-11 04:00:00
Instead of posting a picture of my spreadsheet and wasting valuable space I added a new link on the right sidebar between the site map and the Member Admin area. If you click on the link it brings up a new fitted window of the spreadsheet. There is also a link on the 2008 page as well. If you are brain dead and can't find either... click HERE and bookmark it. Added are some color coding to show in bright yellow which state results I can confirm with three or more sources, a lighter yellow for states that are confirmed with two sources, a light green for states are confirmed by only one source, and a pink in the cases where state results differ. For those who follow this closely... the third source for the bright yellow has been "The Green Papers" which is by far the most conservative in actually showing a pledged total. I feel pretty confident that the bright yellow states are correct. In the case of the lighter yellow, it is in every case the green papers who is holding back ...
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Obama adds Maine to weekend sweep...
2008-02-11 02:01:00
With about 70% reporting, Obama has been declared the winner in Maine . He currently leads 58%-41% and the delegate count looks as if it will go 15-9 in favor of Obama. Some sources are showing Obama within single digits of Clinton in total delegate count.
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Obama Will Be The Nominee
2008-02-10 18:47:00
Barack Hussein Obama will be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2008. This prediction would have been a bit prescient had I made it before Super Tuesday, but while I thought Obama had a better chance at the nomination than Clinton I really wasn't sure whether he'd convince enough Democratic voters by Super Tuesday to prevent her from gaining on him in delegates. The results from Super Tuesday said emphatically that he did, and further news that Clinton's campaign finances are in straits makes it clearer to me that Obama will prevail. Obama's four-bagger in yesterday's contests only adds an exclamation point to a conclusion I'd arrived at several days ago. Oh, Hillary Rodham Clinton will continue to fight for the nomination for some time still, and may well carry the fight all the way to the convention trying to get superdelegates and non-seated Michigan and Florida delegates to grant her a Clinton landslide. She may even win some of the big prizes yet to be awarded - ...

Big night for Obama & Huckabee
2008-02-10 04:31:00
Democrats UPDATE 10:51 CST: Overall Democratic Delegate Count Obama : 74 today - 952 pledged - estimated 1089 total Clinton: 37 today - 902 pledged - estimated 1113 total Note: There are 47 delegates yet to be pledged from tonight. Looks like a big, big sweep of the three states for Obama. Oh and a squeeker in the Virgin Islands Nebraska Obama 68% 16 delegates Clinton 32% 7 delegates 1 more delegate to calculate Washington Obama 68% 35 delegates Clinton 31% 14 delegates 29 more delegates to calculate Lousiana Obama 53% 7 delegates Clinton 39% 5 delegates 44 more delegates to calculate Virgin Islands Obama 89.9% Clinton 7.6% It seems realistic to see Obama picking up 50 pledged delegates or more on Hillary when all the delegates have been calculated. I see Hillary's lead (even including Superdelegates) being erased by Tuesday. Oh... and they say he will likely pick up all 3 delegates from the Virgin Islands too. GOP Huckabee has won Kansas and the 36 delegates awarded t...
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Not so fast
2008-02-10 02:12:00
John McCain's last remaining active GOP opponent, Mike Huckabee, won today's Kansas caucus. The chance that Huckabee could actually deny McCain the nomination is somewhere between vanishingly small and zero. However today's result does make it clear that there are still plenty of Republicans out there who don't want to get in line behind McCain. It also will make it hard for Huckabee to drop out of the race. You drop out when you lose, and lately Huck's had a pretty good run, so he can't quit while he's winning.
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Mitt's Math Misses the Mac
2008-02-09 22:13:00
In suspending his campaign Thursday, Mitt Romney talked about the need for Republicans to pull together and prevent a liberal Democrat from being elected President. And then he and his campaign began dropping hints that he planned to retool for 2012. Did I miss something here? Romney talking about party unity and then indicating that he will run in 2012. That can only mean that he is making the implicit (or maybe even explicit) assumption that either: 1. John McCain will lose this year to Clinton or Obama, and if he does Romney fans are promised a 2012 run with McCain no longer in the picture. If Romney had more die hard loyalists or if they felt more strongly then that could become a self-fulfilling prophecy; 2. John McCain will be so old and worn out that he won't be up to running in 2012 (this case also includes the not inconsiderable probability that McCain, a septugenarian cancer survivor, will either die in office or be in such poor health that he won't be able to run ...
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New Delegate Count
2008-02-09 19:26:00
The count hasn't changed much. Another 36 delegates from Super Tuesday have been calculated and the twelve point Super Tuesday pledged delegate lead that Clinton had is now a two point lead... with the lion's share of the uncalculated delegates being left in Colorado, Georgia, and Illinois... all states where Obama won comfortably. This has increased Obama's overall pledged delegate lead from the slight 3 point lead he had to a still small 13 point lead. It certainly appears that when all is said and done, that Obama will have won the delegate count from Super Tuesday. The other change is the Super Delegate count according to RCP. They had the count at 211 for Clinton to 128 for Obama. But have now added nine more superdelegate to Obama's column, giving him a total of 137. Again, take these counts with a grain of salt as they are reported differently by different sources and any of them could realistically change their support between now and the convention. So, on the overall...
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The 8 next states
2008-02-08 19:37:00
Boy... it's hard to find polls for these upcoming states. The problem is that four of the states will be over this weekend so there is little chance we will have any updates before then: Saturday: Louisiana (56 delegates) - No polling. Probably a good contest for Obama. It's a red state with a very large African-American population. Closed primary will help Hillary. Nebraska (24) - No polling. An open Caucus state that borders Kansas, Colorado, and Iowa. All states where Obama did well. Washington (78) - Hey, a poll! It's an open caucus and should be a good state for Obama. If he wins by double digits, he could actually gain some delegates. Pollster Obama Clinton SUSA 2/8 53% 40% Virgin Islands (3) - No polling (go figure). Who knows what might happen there. Of course who cares? They have three delegates that are likely to be split 2-1. Perhaps a coin flip? Sunday: Maine (24) - A poll from last April shows Hillary with a 17 point lead ...
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McCain Discusses Veep Preferences
2008-02-08 19:02:00
John McCain, who was careful to note that Mike Huckabee is still running against him and should not be discounted, today discussed for the first time what he'd be looking for in a vice presidential nominee. "The fundamental principle behind the selection of any running mate will be that person is fully prepared to take over, and shares your values, your principles, your philosophy and your priorities," McCain said on Friday in Norfolk, Virginia, in answer to a reporter's question. He also dismissed the importance of regional balance to the ticket, noting that in 1992 Clinton and Gore were both southerners and won in November. It's a sound answer to the question, imo, and is exactly what I'd want to hear at this point. But one thing I've been thinking about recently is whether a particular veep choice could realistically help McCain electorally, other than perhaps in tipping the veep's state (e.g. were Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty picked). Most of the states which Bush won ...
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What's left....
2008-02-08 16:45:00
Here is what the two camps are looking forward to: Barack Obama: Will cite that he is expected to win a lion's share of the states from now until the end. They especially like the schedule remaining in February, where it is likely that they will win 7,8, or even all 9 states left this month. They love the fact that half of them are holding caucuses rather than primaries as he has done quite well in caucuses. This should give him some serious momentum leading into the March 4th date which includes the delegate rich Ohio and Texas. They believe that this momentum along with their money advantage will work to their favor down the stretch. Hillary Clinton: Will argue that while Obama is favored in many of the upcoming states, they are expecting to do well with the three remaining large states, Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania. If they win the Ohio and Texas on March 4th, they will regain the momentum and with the last nine states all holding primaries rather than caucuses they like thei...
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"And then the super delegates decide this thing."
2008-02-08 00:41:00
Well, not really. Political Wire quotes Washington Post columnist Paul Kane today explaining how the math works for Obama and Clinton winning Democratic delegates from this point out. The gist of Kane's argument is that it's virtually impossible for either Clinton or Obama to win an outright majority of convention delegates without relying on the support of super delegates. Kane notes that there are only 1,400 or so pledged delegates remaining to be won and since each candidate presently has about 900 pledged delegates each candidate would need 1,100 of those (nearly 80%) to win an outright victory from pledged delegates alone. What's missing from Kane's analysis is that it's possible (and I increasingly believe likely) that one of the candidates will win enough of an edge in delegates in the primaries and caucuses that the only way that candidate could be denied the nomination is if the 800 or so super delegates decide in large or even overwhelming numbers to support the c...
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Oregon's Hooley To Retire
2008-02-07 23:59:00
Via Political Wire comes news that Democrat Darlene Hooley of Oregon's 5th CD will retire at the end of her current term. This is the first Democratic open seat which should have a tight race, as Bush won this dstrict by 1% in 2004. CQPolitics has already revised its rating on this race to No Clear Favorite. While there are a few Republican-held seats where Democrats are expected to make strong challenges this year the races considered the most competitive this year have thus far been either open Republican seats or recently won Democratic seats (mostly seats won in 2006). Hooley's decision to step down from a purple district seat after six terms in congress changes that and puts the Democrats on the defensive in an open seat race.
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Conservatives for Hillary Clinton
2008-02-07 22:08:00
With Mitt Romney out of the race for the Republican Presidential nomination, we are left with no decent candidates on the Republican side. That leaves us with three choices: vote Democrat, vote third party, or stay home. The best way to prevent McCain from being elected to lead a third Nixon administration is to vote against him, and to vote for a candidate with a chance of defeating him. This rules out abstaining or voting for a third party. One candidate on the Democrat side is a better choice than McCain: Hillary Clinton . On her worst days, Hillary Clinton displays more principle than John McCain ever could. I may not be proud to support Hillary, but she would at least make a better President than John McCorrupt, Mike Huckster, or Barack H. Christ. Today Conservatives for Hillary Clinton is being established for the good of the United States of America. The goals of Conservatives for Hillary Clinton are to help Hillary secure the Democrat Presidential nomination, and th...
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Delegate Count made simple? Arrgh!
2008-02-07 18:38:00
To recap - heading into Super Tuesday, Obama held a 63-48 lead in pledged delegates. According to what has been calculated so far in the Super Tuesday results, Hillary has 804 delegates won and Obama has 792 delegates won. This gives Obama a slight lead in overall pledged delegates won at 855 to 852. Simple enough? Sure... but not so fast. There are still 85 delegates yet to be calculated from Super Tuesday, 65 of which come from states where Obama won and the other 20 coming from states that Hillary won. Based on a crude method of proportional calculation I would figure that Obama might get 49 delegates (841 total) to 36 (840 total) for Clinton... give or take one or two. Meaning that Super Tuesday would clearly be a wash in delegate count. I believe that the final totals from California turned out better for Hillary than anyone had expected, thus erasing the 10-15 delegate win that Obama had originally hoped for Wednesday morning. It's also interesting that in Alabama, where O...
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Clintons to borrow themselves $5 million
2008-02-07 16:30:00
This is yesterday's news (quite litterally). But I also read today that Bill in the process of selling off some business interest that will net him about $20 million... which in turn he intends to give/borrow to the campaign. Also, it sounds as if Clinton staffers are no longer being paid and should not expect to be paid for at least the rest of February. This seems almost surreal. The Clintons and their big money machine have run out of money and are being outraised over 2-1 right now by Obama. From what I have gathered they are already looking towards March 4th as the next date where they really expect to do well. In fact, they are apparently allocating most of their advertising resources to Ohio and Texas contests on the 4th. But that strategy almost seems Guilianish as there are another 10 contests taking place in February that will award another 447 pledged delegates. Is it really possible that they don't have the money to compete? The Clintons?
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McCain the man that PO'd the neo-rightwingers
2008-02-07 16:24:00
http://www.dumpmccain.com/ I have been listening to the far right radio talking heads lately trying to figure out why a successful McCain Republican Party nomination has raised ire, animosity, hatred and disgust. I have heard that he is not a true conservative based on his support for campaign finance reform, his immigration stance and his "coddling" towards democrats. I have heard people claim they are Goldwater and Reagan die-hard Republicans and that McCain is not one of them. They love Mitt Romney, because he is a true conservative in their mind and model. HUH? You think Goldwater could have stomached the Massachusetts Mitt? Do you think he would have seen him for what he is, an opportunistic flip flopper who changes stripes and colors faster than a Cheshire Cat? But, lets see what really raises the ire of the neo-right. From the Gun Owners of America McCain has most feigned conservatism in his militarism. McCain, a Vietnam veteran, is hawkish and patriotic. These attribut...
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Obama makes his case:
2008-02-07 16:14:00
According to sources, Obama is starting to make the argument aimed at Superdelegates, the media, and the Democratic voting public that if he wins the pledged delegate count and Clinton wins the nomination based on superdelegate support that there will be some problems. Wow... you think? This gets back to the very realistic hypothetical I threw out yesterday. For all practical purposes, I think that Obama will likely win the popular vote, the most states, as well as the most pledge delegates from the official primary and caucus results. This would effectively give him the mandate to argue that he is the choice of the Democratic party. It would be a pretty hard argument to deny at the end of the day. So far the media has been INHO derelict in their duty to give the public the facts about the delegate count. All people keep seeing is Hillary with a delegate lead, usually in the range of around 100 delegates. This is a deceiving number without highlighting the fact that her leads in...
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The limits to freedom of speech...
2008-02-06 22:53:00
Let me make something perfectly clear. Someone wants to tell me I am wrong. Fine. Someone wants to tell me that they believe I have an IQ of around 70. Fine. Someone wants to disagree with another member and let them know in no uncertain terms. Fine. But there really isn't any place on a political blog for dialogue that includes attacking spouses, sisters, mothers and include words like cocksucker and douchebag. Maybe it's just me, but somehow that doesn't appear to hold any real relevant value to our discussions about Super Tuesday results or who might beat who in the upcoming general election. So while I am loath to start editing comments or god forbid banning people... I do post a warning on the comment popup box: **NOTE: COMMENTS UNRELATED TO THREAD MAY BE DELETED** **THIS INCLUDES USE OF SPAM, FLAME, OR PROFANITY** So keep this in mind and hopefully we can all be adults here and consider that right now we are getting literally 1000's of hits a day due to the electi...
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A California Tsunami
2008-02-06 22:17:00
It's looking like John McCain's 8-point victory over Mitt Romney in California will translate into winning at least 90% of the 170 delegates which were at stake last night and may reach 95%. Romney has apparently won three of the state's 53 congressional districts where 100% of precincts have reported (the 21st, 49th, and 52nd) and imo has a chance of catching McCain in only three districts where reporting is incomplete (the 25th, 41st, and 42nd), meaning Romney will receive between 9 and 18 delegates from California. McCain's next challenge will be this weekend's annual CPAC conference. Unlike last year, when he avoided it altogether, McCain plans to speak to CPAC's members this year, no doubt to stress areas where he and they share values rather than reiterate the differences. The reactions of CPAC's attendees to McCain this weekend should give us a strong hint of whether they will be willing to put aside their grievances against McCain and support him this fall as the ...
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TOTAL VOTES CAST SUPER TUESDAY
2008-02-06 20:19:00
Clinton: 50.2% (7,347,971) Obama: 49.8% (7,294,851) If you look at the first four states you had another roughly 926,000 votes casts of which Obama took nearly 544,000 (or about 58.7%) to Hillary's 382,000 or so. Adding it all up and you have an estimated todal of: Obama: 50.35% (7,838,562) Clinton: 49.65% (7,730,424) Now to put this into some perspective... the 15.6 million votes represents 26 of the 48 states (excluding Florida and Michigan). That leaves 23 more states to go. Of those who have voted, Omaba holds a slight lead of less than 1%. So, if you take a hard look at some of these national polls showing a 8-10 point Hillary lead you have to take some pause. After all, polls are polls and results are results. In order for Hillary to really be 10 points up with Democrats likely to vote in primaries... taking into consideration that she actually slightly behind in actual count a ways beyond the midway point... she would actually have to hold a lead in the area of 20-25 p...
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My Post Super Tuesday Analysis
2008-02-06 16:26:00
GOP McCain became the night's biggest winner by simply doing exactly what he was expected to do. He didn't really win any states he was expected to lose, but he also didn't really lose anything important that he was supposed to win. His last minute win in the winner take all Missouri and unexpectedly comfortable win in California really sealed the deal. Probably more importantly for McCain is that the media is playing yesterday's contest to be a draw on the Democratic side, which gives McCain the only real claim to victory yesterday. In other words, if you go to CNN.com or FOXNEWS.com... he will be the guy they picture smiling. On the flip side, McCain's big night is simply salt in the open wound that is Mitt Romney's disappointing performance. While he won a respectable amount of states, the day started with him losing a state he thought he had won (West Virginia), continued with him looking at a whopping 10% win in his home state of Massachusetts, and ended with a quick c...
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It's A New Mexico Tradition
2008-02-06 16:10:00
New Mexico continued its glorious tradition of being the last state in the union to report a winner in yesterday's Democratic party primary, as voting problems, a slew of provisional ballots, and a separation of only a few hundred votes between the two principal candidates has once again led to extensive delays in reporting a winner. According to CNN, Obama now has a lead of 518 votes, but tallies with more total votes give Clinton a lead of 117 votes, and there's still about 2% of precincts that haven't been included in the count, plus there's roughly 17,000 provisional ballots for whom the eligibility of each vote must be determined. In case you're not familiar with New Mexico voting tradition, here are a few recent examples of elections where nobody could tell who won for days: * In 2000 the official margin in the presidential race was about 300 votes, with Gore declared the winner several days after the first (official) Florida recount. * In 2004 the margin in the presi...
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