ColdheartedtruthColdheartedtruthGroup Blog with over 350 members since 2002. Coldheartedtruth is a well establish election projection blog. Articles
What's Hillary's real strategy?
2008-03-29 22:22:00 Now we can argue all day long about Hillary's chances of winning the nomination this year. We can debate until we are blue in the face how much the extended nomination process is really hurting the Party. But even those who might make arguments in favor of Hillary staying in the race have to concede that Hillary's chances are still a long shot and that what is happening right now is not helping the Party's chances of winning the White House. I would even offer that the only way that Hillary wins the nomination is by Obama having a complete collapse and the Superdelegates deciding to buck the will of the voters and put Hillary on the ballot. Given that particular scenario, it would be unlikely that the battered party would give Clinton the neccessary backing to help her actually win in 2008. So, if the chances are not good that she would win the nomination, the chances of her winning the general election even if she did are likely even more remote, and her continued presense in t... More About: Truth , Strategy , Real
Superdelegate movement starting to stagnant
2008-03-28 20:14:00 Over the past couple of weeks there has been little or no movement with the Superdelegates in terms of new commitments. Over the past two weeks Obama has gained 7 Superdelegates, lost 2 Superdelegates for a net gain of 5... while Hillary has gained a whopping grand total of 2 Superdelegates. Right now there are still 338 uncommitted or undetermined Superdelegates and it appears that a majority of them are looking to remain uncommitted. This is actually fairly good news for Hillary who has at the very least stopped the bleeding. More to the point, the more uncommitted Superdelegates that are out there, the more the perception is that they will be the people who decide the nomination. The longer that perception hangs around, the more palatable that perception becomes to the general public (outside of the Obama supporters of course). I still give Hillary two chances to win the nomination... slim and none. The being said, I hope she stays in the race, and these uncommitted Superdele... More About: Notes
Iraqi Government Taking on Mahdi Army
2008-03-27 21:56:00 Fighting has erupted in Iraq between government forces and Moqtaqa al-Sadr's Mahdi Army as government forces attempt to wrest control of Basra away from al-Sadr. Clashes have spread to Baghdad and other cities, and large street protests against the government are occurring in Shia neighborhoods of Baghdad sympathetic to al-Sadr. A weekend-long curfew - really a lockdown - has been ordered in Baghdad in an effort to prevent violence from escalating further there. Street battles that started Tuesday in Basra and Sadr City have spread to several other neighborhoods and southern cities, leaving more than 200 dead, including civilians, Iraqi troops and militants. That three-day figure was a rough estimate provided by police and hospital officials who could not give a more specific breakdown. Iraqi officials reported 17 more people killed in overnight clashes in Sadr City, raising the total there to 40. The death toll in the Shiite city of Hillah, 60 miles south of Baghdad, also r... More About: Government , Iraqi Government , Mahdi Army
Larry Craig (R) Incumbent Senator Idaho
2008-03-27 21:32:00 This is a funny post I ran across originally posted on 11/17/06 when I first started gearing up for the 2008 election. Of course it wasn't designed to be funny at the time and it's only really funny today because it tells you exactly how quickly things can change in politics... First Elected: 1990 2002 Result: 65% to 33% over Alan Blinken 2004 Presidential Result: Bush 69% Kerry 30% Possible Challengers: No frontrunners at this time Front Page: Larry who? Larry Craig . A social conservative from a socially conservative state. Also a fiscal conservative who is known as a big advocate for a constitutional amendment for a balanced federal budget. He also gained some notariety by posting every earmark he had inserted into spending bills onto his Senate website. It's the sort of thing you can do when you win by 30 points or more. He is in his sixties, but there is no talk at this point of retirement. There doesn't appear to be any talk of a strong challenge from either within or ou... More About: Idaho , Larry Craig , Senator
Chant it with me!
2008-03-27 18:54:00 Al Gore Al Gore Al Gore AL GORE AL GORE!!! Original post blogged on b2evolution. More About: Notes , Chant
Does anyone still actually believe that "Support the troops but oppose the
2008-03-27 17:55:00 Presentation by Iraq and Afghanistan veterans cancelled after anti-war sociopaths threaten to protest: A national tour featuring decorated veterans from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan won't be stopping at Forest Lake Area High School today as planned, after school leaders abruptly canceled the visit. Steve Massey, the school principal, said the decision to cancel was prompted by concerns that the event was becoming political rather than educational and therefore was not suitable for a public school. He said the school had received several phone calls from parents and others, some of whom indicated that they may stage a protest if the event took place. http://www.startribune.com/politics/local /16971116.htmlOriginal post blogged on b2evolution. More About: Support , Troops , Proud
Website alert!
2008-03-27 16:09:00 Just a bit of a warning. I have made the decision (or perhaps the better way to explain it was that the decision was sort of forced on me) to upgrade to a virtual personal server (VPS) to handle the increase of "activity" on the website. In this case it has nothing to to with space or bandwidth, but rather the fact that running an interactive site uses up more of the CPU/RAM than a static site that might actually see more traffic and use more bandwidth. The other issue is that the blogging software is all written in php/css which is a cleaner language, but apparently more stressful on a server than the old fashioned html. THe php language runs alot of scripts, rather than relying on static code as html does. The VPS allow all of the sites on the server to have their own dedicated RAM with some shared overflow RAM. That means that no matter how much resources one site uses, the rest of the sites on the server are not generally effected. While my webhoster has suggested to me th... More About: Website , Notes , Alert
Has Obama hit a religious nerve ?
2008-03-27 15:37:00 Go to the Powerline blog and you will see a little banner proclaiming that they are proud friends of Israel. At least one of the writers on that blog (Paul Mirengoff) is jewish, as are plenty of your neo-conservative bloggers. If you want to look to the more mainstream media, you have people of the Jewish faith like Bill Krisol (of the Weekly standard and NY Times) and sydicated columist Jonah Goldberg. On in the political world, you have Senators like Joe Lieberman, Norm Coleman, and Arlen Specter. But mostly, you think of Jewish politicians as being liberal. Diane Feinstein, Barbara Boxer, Rush Feingold and socialist Bernie Sanders come to mind. Yet there is an increasing amount of Jewish people who are at the very least becoming more and more conservative on the foreign policy issues. One of the things that could drive more of these liberals away from the Democratic party is for the party to nominate someone with close ties to an anti-zionist like Jeremiah Wright. ... More About: Truth , Obama , Religious
Will 28% of Hillary Supporters really vote for McCain?
2008-03-26 19:03:00 Well I guess the short answer to this is "maybe". Heck, I might even go so far as to say that the short answer is "yes". More importantly, I can actually say this without believing that it is some earth shattering revelation. Here is the reality folks. People cross over. Even in 2004, when we had an obvious animosity between parties, 11% of all self-proclaimed Democrats voted for Bush. It is almost certain that the less polarizing John McCain will earn more crossover Democrats and possibly by a large margin. Consider for a second that in the average of the current Democratic popular polling, Hillary gets about 47% of the Democratic respondants. So if 28% of those 47% cross over, you are looking at only about 13%. With only 3% of the Obama supporters crossing over, you would be looking at between 14%-15% crossover total. This is about the number that McCain is pulling in the crosstabs of most of the polls. Read more »Original post blogged on b2evolution. More About: Vote , Supporters
Presidential Candidate Switches to Libertarian Party
2008-03-26 15:59:00 Surprisingly, it's not Ron Paul who's switched parties. Firstread is reporting that Mike Gravel has changed his party registration from Democratic to Libertarian and plans to continue his longshot campaign by pursuing the Libertarian Party 's nomination. I admit I wasn't paying a lot of attention to Gravel during his early appearances at debates (he was dropped from most invite lists well before the Iowa caucuses) but he never struck me as being a candidate for joining the Libertarian Party .Original post blogged on b2evolution. More About: Presidential , Switches
Tip of the day
2008-03-26 13:57:00 Tip of the day is a new feature that I will use for the next couple of weeks in an attempt to help readers take advantage of some of the newer features that is included on the upgraded blog. For those of you who miss the sidebar comment listing, you may want to look into the latest comment feature located on the first sidebar. I may suggest that you right click it and open it to a new browser, or as one member even suggested, bookmark the link. It basically displays all of the recent comments into a blog like form (rather than in the harder to read sidebar list). It provides links back to the original post, just as the side comments used to do. All in all I think it is a superior method of watching the latest comments and it does not require you to refresh the main blog page over and over. If enough people are interested I can add a sidebar comment listing, but unfortunately it will only show the person who commented and the name of the post that was commented on. The old sidebar ... More About: Tips
A quick comment lesson -
2008-03-25 20:02:00 First... if you want to add links - click on the link button (where the arrow is pointing). It will bring up a new box where you can paste your link. When you click on the check o.k. button it will bring the link into the comment sort of like this. You then add what you want your text to say. What I want my link to say Then click the link button again to close the "tag". what I want my link to say When you finish the post it will look like this: what I want my link to say (if you curser over it you will realize that it is a link). I like to add a on either side (Str button) and it looks like this: This is what I want my link to say when I post a link. Secondly - it appears that you can even change the color of your comment text just by using the color button. Probably the easiest way to this or any of the other tags is to highlight the text you want accented and then click the tag button you want to use. Lastly... we have a new rating system, where you can r... More About: Notes , Quick , Comment , Lesson
Hillary exposed Video
2008-03-25 17:28:00 Did she spend Xmas in Cambodia too? Is it just me, or do both the Democratic candidates appear to be going in the wrong direction? Just when the Jeremiah Wright controversy seems to be fading, we get another psuedo controversy from the other candidate. Meanwhile, John (notice the simple first name) McCain is sitting back watching his favorables go up... as he runs some low level patriotic advertising to boost his image.Original post blogged on b2evolution. More About: Video , Notes , Hillary
Some notes on the new blog design
2008-03-25 15:01:00 You may or may not have to log back in to change your status from visitor to member. There are certain features that you will see as a member that you do not see as a visitor. With the ability to "move categories" - I am able to rearrange, split, and combine various blogs. One of the ideas that I am toying with is giving every current Main Page Poster their own individual blog (sort of like the new Thinking Independently blog from Indy Voter) where each blogger can have some control over their own blog that would still default all posts on the front page. I have already moved some of Indy's community blog posts over to his new blog to show how that can work. One thing to note... as a current poster on the community blog, please try to use the category assigned to your user name when posting. This will allow me to facilitate this process much easier when/if the time comes to create a new blog. Anyone posted under the category "post" will likely remain in the community blog. Doi... More About: Design , Blog , Notes
Welcome to CHT 2.4.1 (skin 4.0)
2008-03-25 02:53:00 There are some benifits and drawbacks to the new blog. Consider the skin sort of a work in progress. A few features I would like to point out. 1) On the first of the sidebars on the right you will see some links - click on the latest comment and I think you see a very nice replacement for the old sidebar rolling comment area. 2) Speaking of comments - you will see a commment form that now includes tags (including a link tag) - just click the link button - put your link in the grey box that comes up and click o.k. - type whatever text after the tag you want to represent the link - then click the link button again to close the tag. Easy smeazy. 3) You no longer have to be a member to comment - just ask a simple question. For members, the question should already be answered. This is a great tool for reducing spam and much more simple than making everyone regester. On the "need to do" side: 1) I need to figure out why the comment box is "center aligned" and I need to figure out ho... More About: Skin , Notes
"A grim milestone"
2008-03-24 15:27:00 There have been news stories for a week or more trumpeting the fact that U.S. military deaths in Iraq were approaching 4,000, and with the deaths of four soldiers in a Baghdad attack today there's a new wave of stories noting that this "grim milestone" has been reached. What I didn't see in any of these stories, however, is any mention that the 4,000th U.S. military death occurred at least three months later than it appeared it would just six months ago. Last year's surge of troops into Iraq and the more aggressive military tempo which accompanied it resulted in monthly casualties jumping through the early months of the year. Through August there were 738 U.S. military deaths in Iraq for 2007, a pace which would have resulted in more than 1,100 for the year were it maintained and would have had total military deaths for Iraq topping 4,100 by year's end. But what happened was that the surge succeeded in reducing violence dramatically. Insurgents were engaged aggressively whe... More About: Milestone , Grim
Tom Obama anyone?
2008-03-24 14:34:00 Already the media is prepared to pounce on the American public for being afraid to elect a black man as President should Barack Obama fail to win the general election. But if he loses, it won't be about his race. Simply stated, this point in time I am quite simply prepared to say in simple terms that the now almost certain Obama general election loss can be boiled down to the simple fact that his first name is simply not simple enough. The reality folks is that in order to be a successful Presidential contender, one has to have a simple name, preferably one that can be actually broken down to one syllable. I shouldn't have to come up with any elaborate phychological reasons for this since history should prove the lesson. Think about it. Starting with the most recent and counting back all the way to 1960, here are the Presidential Matchups: George vs John, George vs Al, Bill vs Bob, Bill vs George, George vs Mike, Ron vs Walt, Ron vs Jim, Jim vs Jerry, Dick vs George, Dick vs Ber... More About: Truth
The thoughts of a Super Delegate
2008-03-23 06:11:00 http://www.mrsuper.org/ An unidentified and as yet undeclared Super delegate to the Democratic convention has started a blog (Tedski at Rum, Romanism and Rebellion writes that he knows who it is but is sworn to secrecy, except to say that it is someone not from Arizona) to write what his thoughts are as the nominating process goes on. The blog is at: http://www.mrsuper.org/ It may be worth keeping an eye on if things continue as they are and the convention gets closer. More About: Post , Thoughts
The thoughts of a Super Delegate
2008-03-23 06:11:00 http://www.mrsuper.org/An unidentified and as yet undeclared Super delegate to the Democratic convention has started a blog (Tedski at Rum, Romanism and Rebellion writes that he knows who it is but is sworn to secrecy, except to say that it is someone not from Arizona) to write what his thoughts are as the nominating process goes on. The blog is at: http://www.mrsuper.org/ It may be worth keeping an eye on if things continue as they are and the convention gets closer.Original post blogged on b2evolution. More About: Post , Thoughts
Two Polls Show Shaheen Leading
2008-03-22 23:33:00 There are a couple of polls taken this past week on the New Hampshire Senate race showing Democrat Jeanne Shaheen leading incumbent Republican John Sununu. The earlier poll, from American Research Group, shows Shaheen with 47% support to Sununu's 33% support, while the later poll, from Rasmussen, shows Shaheen leading 49%-41%. While Sununu imo is the most endangered Senate incumbent this year from either party it's a bit early to pass judgement on his reelection chances. He's the incumbent, which has definite advantages, and he also defeated Shaheen six years aso to win his Senate seat despite the fact that Shaheen was then a very popular sitting governor. These polls themselves aren't damning either, as Shaheen's lead in the Rasmussen poll isn't statistically significant and the problems ARG's had with presidential primary polling this year has left me a bit leery of anything they produce at the moment (even though likely voter screening for primary polling is far more p... More About: Show , Polls , Leading
Two Polls Show Shaheen Leading
2008-03-22 23:33:00 There are a couple of polls taken this past week on the New Hampshire Senate race showing Democrat Jeanne Shaheen leading incumbent Republican John Sununu. The earlier poll, from American Research Group, shows Shaheen with 47% support to Sununu's 33% support, while the later poll, from Rasmussen, shows Shaheen leading 49%-41%. While Sununu imo is the most endangered Senate incumbent this year from either party it's a bit early to pass judgement on his reelection chances. He's the incumbent, which has definite advantages, and he also defeated Shaheen six years aso to win his Senate seat despite the fact that Shaheen was then a very popular sitting governor. These polls themselves aren't damning either, as Shaheen's lead in the Rasmussen poll isn't statistically significant and the problems ARG's had with presidential primary polling this year has left me a bit leery of anything they produce at the moment (even though likely voter screening for primary polling is far more p... More About: Show , Polls , Leading
Two Polls Show Shaheen Leading
2008-03-22 23:33:00 There are a couple of polls taken this past week on the New Hampshire Senate race showing Democrat Jeanne Shaheen leading incumbent Republican John Sununu. The earlier poll, from American Research Group, shows Shaheen with 47% support to Sununu's 33% support, while the later poll, from Rasmussen, shows Shaheen leading 49%-41%. While Sununu imo is the most endangered Senate incumbent this year from either party it's a bit early to pass judgement on his reelection chances. He's the incumbent, which has definite advantages, and he also defeated Shaheen six years aso to win his Senate seat despite the fact that Shaheen was then a very popular sitting governor. These polls themselves aren't damning either, as Shaheen's lead in the Rasmussen poll isn't statistically significant and the problems ARG's had with presidential primary polling this year has left me a bit leery of anything they produce at the moment (even though likely voter screening for primary polling is far more p... More About: Show , Polls , Leading
Imprudent curiosity...
2008-03-21 13:39:00 is apparently the official excuse from the State Department for why two of their contract worker went nosing around in Barack Obama's passport application. The Obama campaign declared it "an outrageous breach of security". I think I might describe it as somewhere in the middle of these two descriptions. Look folks, these employees were reported, fired, and appear to have no connection to any political candidate or any political party officials. It's not as if the President, Hillary, or John McCain told these people to snoop around in Obama's personal information. If I was a betting man, I would bet that they did what they did possibly out of some malicious intent to uncover something that they might use for personal gain. Maybe some secret information that they could sell to the Drudge Report for billions of dollars. More About: Truth , Curiosity
Imprudent curiosity...
2008-03-21 13:39:00 is apparently the official excuse from the State Department for why two of their contract worker went nosing around in Barack Obama's passport application. The Obama campaign declared it "an outrageous breach of security". I think I might describe it as somewhere in the middle of these two descriptions. Look folks, these employees were reported, fired, and appear to have no connection to any political candidate or any political party officials. It's not as if the President, Hillary, or John McCain told these people to snoop around in Obama's personal information. If I was a betting man, I would bet that they did what they did possibly out of some malicious intent to uncover something that they might use for personal gain. Maybe some secret information that they could sell to the Drudge Report for billions of dollars. Original post blogged on b2evolution. More About: Truth , Curiosity
Tom Reynolds to Retire
2008-03-20 23:54:00 Republican Tom Reynolds of New York's 26th congressional district today announced that he would not seek a sixth term this fall, leaving Republicans with another open seat to defend in a competitive district. Reynolds had looked to have a much easier time of it this year than he did in 2006, when he defeated Democrat Jack Davis by only 4 points after an extremely difficult campaign. There were already three Democrats vying to oppose Reynolds this fall (including Davis), and Republicans who wish to run for the open seat have until July 10 to file papers. NY-26 has a PVI of R+3, but even though Cook Political Report calls it the "second most Republican [district] in upstate New York" their initial evaluation of the open seat race is that it is a Toss-Up. More About: Retire , Tom Reynolds
Tom Reynolds to Retire
2008-03-20 23:54:00 Republican Tom Reynolds of New York's 26th congressional district today announced that he would not seek a sixth term this fall, leaving Republicans with another open seat to defend in a competitive district. Reynolds had looked to have a much easier time of it this year than he did in 2006, when he defeated Democrat Jack Davis by only 4 points after an extremely difficult campaign. There were already three Democrats vying to oppose Reynolds this fall (including Davis), and Republicans who wish to run for the open seat have until July 10 to file papers. NY-26 has a PVI of R+3, but even though Cook Political Report calls it the "second most Republican [district] in upstate New York" their initial evaluation of the open seat race is that it is a Toss-Up.Original post blogged on b2evolution. More About: Retire , Tom Reynolds
A New Open F***ing Mic Already...
More articles from this author:2008-03-20 17:24:00 ...Because I'm tired of waiting for thread of 200+ posts to load on my crappy dialup connection, and I'm tired of scrolling down through said 200+ posts. Good morning, and God Damn Obama. More About: Post , Open 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 |
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