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Kosovo Independence: Russia-Serbia Relations and Russian Reaction
2008-02-22 00:12:00
Kosovo declared independence from Serbia on Sunday, ending months of waiting. The U.S. and most other NATO nations already have or will to recognize the nation as a sovereign state. This has all been expected for months, but there are multiple variables that could change, all depending on the reaction of one country: Russia .Background – Putin’s interest in the regionThe Russian government has let the world know that it does not approve of an independent Kosovo. But why does Russia even have an interest in the region? To understand we need to travel back to rough times in Russia.Vladimir Putin took over the Russian Federation just before the turn of the twentieth century, after the economically devastating rule of President Gorbachev. Russia was weak, and the citizens of Russia didn’t like it. They had been the strongest nation on Earth, in power with the United States, for 50 years. And they wanted that prestige and influence back. Russia was sliding down a nasty slope.So alon...
More About: Kosovo , Relations

Good News: Sadr to Extend Ceasefire?
2008-02-21 22:10:00
Sources tell Reuters that "powerful Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is expected to extend a six-month ceasefire by his Mehdi Army militia."This is great news. Moqtada al-Sadr's peacefire has been one of the reasons the surge has had such military success.If he doesn't extend the ceasefireIf Sadr decides to end the ceasefire, contrary to Reuter's anonymous source's beliefs, the effect could be devastating.Shiite on Shiite violence would flare up, as would Shiite on Sunni. New chaos would only slow the already snail-paced political action.But why would Sadr want to reextend the truce?A couple of reasons:1. The U.S.The United States has kept up pressure militarily and politically to hold Sadr down. The surge was one of the key reasons the Shiite cleric called for the ceasefire; once it began winding down, Sadr could have expected to be able to end his truce and not have to worry about too many Americans. There was a change: Defense secretary Robert Gates came out last month and sai...
More About: News , Good News , Good

Clinton Attacks Obama... For No Reason
2008-02-20 23:46:00
I'm sure most everybody reading this has heard that Clinton has accused Obama of plagiarizing MA governor Deval Patrick's speeches.Even as a Clinton supporter, I am disgusted, and there are a few things I must point out:Obama and Patrick are good friends. I wouldn't be surprised if they did this regularly.What does Clinton gain by attacking him in this way? Nothing.Who cares? Criticize him for his policy details, would you? Not his speeches.
More About: Reason , Attacks

How to Blow Up Barack Obama
2008-02-17 23:18:00
Obama with a Twist by Balloon Artist Ori LivneyWatch more DIY videos on 5min.com
More About: Barack Obama , Barack , Obama

Why Romney Endorsed McCain
2008-02-15 00:08:00
Reuters: Romney endorses McCainCouldn?t be anymore expected. Just to state the obvious a little bit here, Romney?s looking for the VP nod.

Who Killed Imad Mughniyeh?
2008-02-13 22:51:00
A quick list of possibilities:1. The MossadMotive: Revenge; to stop him from carrying out any more attacks.2. The CIAMotive: Revenge; to stop him from carrying out any more attacks.3. A rival Hizbollah memberMotive: To move up on the Hizbollah political ladder.Stay tuned for more.
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A Critique of Barack Obama
2008-02-13 00:45:00
Joe Klein, a writer for Time Magazine that I like very much, published this critique of Barack Obama last week. The whole article is worth a read: Inspiration vs. SubstanceObama's strength is inspiration, and it's also his weakness. In the recent past, Democrats have favored candidates who offer meaty, detailed policy prescriptions ? usually to the party's detriment ? and that is not Obama's game. After his Iowa victory, his stump speech had become a soufflé untroubled by much substance of any sort. He has rectified that, to some extent. He now spends some time talking about the laments of average Americans he has met along the way; then he dives into a litany of solutions he has proposed to address the laments. But those are not nearly so convincing as Clinton's versions of the same; of course, Clinton has a tragic deficit when it comes to inspiration.There is an odd, anachronistic formality to Obama's stump speech: it is always the same. It sets his audiences afire, but it d...
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Clinton Endorsement Part 2: The Issues
2008-02-10 15:31:00
After my endorsement last week of Hillary Rodham Clinton , I was criticized (rightfully) for not going into the issues enough about why I support Clinton.Clinton and Obama?s policies have very little differences. It some of the finer details on foreign policy I have concerns with.Anyway, here are my doubts about Obama in full:? His position on Iraq (would he pull out too many troops too soon?)? His foreign policy (would he really sit down with foreign leaders his first year in office face to face?)? Will he be able to stand up to Republican attacks?? Will he be able to stand up to rising world powers: Russia, China, and Iran who will take advantage of him if he shows the slightest sign of weakness?? Will he bring in too many new people? (New people are not necessarily what we need; we need to keep some of the same people who learned first hand our mistakes in Iraq and Afghanistan.)Of course, I have plenty of doubts about Clinton as well:? Her electability? Her decisiveness? Fine deta...
More About: Issues , Part , Endorsement

Why I am Voting Clinton ? And Not Voting Obama
2008-02-05 00:34:00
Considering tomorrow I vote, it?s time to make an endorsement. It?s going to Hillary Clinton .Reason 1 ? The (foreign policy) issuesI prefer Hillary Clinton?s positions to those of Barack Obama ?s. I disagree with Mike Gravel?s positions so much that I won?t even mention his name in the rest of this article.Clinton has superior reasoning on nearly every major issue. Her positions on social issues may be slightly different than mine, but the president does not control domestic issues: Congress does.Instead, the president controls foreign policy and the military. Therefore, those are the most important issues in the presidential contest. Barack Obama doesn?t understand international issues as well as Clinton does. He would rather see the U.S. as a weaker state abroad; Clinton knows that the U.S. must sometimes project its power.Reason 2 ? Hope is not as important as the issuesAs Massachusetts legislator Salvatore F. DiMasi put it, "To be perfectly honest, I really don't want my preside...
More About: Voting , Linton

Rudy G Drops Out - Why?
2008-01-31 01:48:00
Why would Rudy Giuliani bother dropping out now?Sure, he invested a lot in Florida, and his crushing loss surely didn't help his campaign. But he still had a lot of support in different Super Tuesday contests. He might as well have stayed on for another week.Some will point to his campaign?s money troubles. But lets dig a little deeper.Thinking VPDuring his concession speech, Giuliani endorsed current Republican frontrunner John McCain. One could take this at face value; Giuliani supports McCain?s positions and values.Politicians don?t think like that. You?ve got to put yourself in Rudy?s shoes. What?s the closest thing to the presidency? That whole vice-presidency thing.And it?s looking even better for Giuliani. McCain will take office at age 73, the oldest president ever, I believe. If the former Prisoner of War gets conked out, so to speak, Giuliani would get exactly what he had wanted from the beginning: the most powerful job on Earth.

Hoping That Arab Governments Are Blamed
2008-01-28 23:19:00
On Wednesday I wrote ?Hoping Hamas is Blamed.? It?s pretty obvious now, just as it was then, that Hamas isn?t going to be blamed and Israel ?s plan will not succeed. Luckily, a new possible scapegoat has joined the herd ? other Arab governments.The predicamentEgypt?s been left with quite a problem; Hamas will not allow the Egyptian government to shutdown the border peacefully. That leaves them with essentially two options. Option number one of the Egyptians is to shut their border with Gaza down by force. The problem with this, in their view, is that it (a) possibly destabilizes the region (b) infuriates relatives of Palestinians in Egypt.Option number two is allowing continued free passage between the Gaza Strip and Egypt. This would upset Israel and the U.S. As well, it could draw the ire of many Egyptians if Gazans become perceived as unwelcome guests.A new scapegoatUnless Gazans point their fingers at Hamas in retaliation for their poor situation, there is another group they blam...
More About: Middle East , West Bank , Governments

[POLL] Does the U.S. Have a Moral Obligation in Iraq
2008-01-28 00:14:00
Does the U.S. have a moral obligation in Iraq ?YesNoOther  pollcode.com free polls
More About: Middle East , Poll , Moral

Romano Who?
2008-01-24 22:41:00
BBC: Italian PM Romano Prodi ResignsIt?s too bad that nobody cares.Italy has lost all of its geopolitical influence to corruption and organized crime. It withdrew its soldiers from Afghanistan in 2006; it?s not involved in Iraq .

Hoping That Hamas Is Blamed
2008-01-23 23:42:00
Reuters: Palestinians blow up border wall, flood into EgyptWell, it had to happen sometimes. And its too late to change course.Israel ?s strategyIsrael has been attempting to isolate Hamas and make their government in Gaza look like a failure. Israel, the U.S., and other western powers have been bolstering Mahmoud Abbas?s (semi-)democratic government in the West Bank to solidify this image.The mistake of the strategy ? or not?Israel has been making life in Gaza miserable for Gazans, and life will only become exponentially worse in the following weeks and months.By increasing poverty, unemployment, and general dissatisfaction in Gaza, the West is creating the perfect situation for terrorism to grow. Terrorism is like a disease: it grows on dissatisfaction. Israel and the United States will be blamed for the bad conditions. Unless, of course Israel and the West aren?t blamed, and instead, the Hamas government is. That is the Ehud Olmert?s hope, at least.It?s too late nowThis blockade a...
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Does the U.S. Have a Moral Obligation in Iraq?
2008-01-22 17:20:00
Let's pretend the U.S. pulled out of Iraq in the coming months because the President had a huge change of heart. 90% of our troops are gone, by, let's say July 2009.What happens then?Let's say, for the sake of discussion, all out civil war breaks out in Iraq, but is limited to that country.Hundreds and thousands of Iraqis are dying every day, every week, every month. Does the U.S. have a moral obligation to step in and try to resolve the fighting?Or instead, do we sit back and watch, and wait for the rest of the region to potentially join in?
More About: Middle East , Moral

What do New Iranian Sanctions Mean?
2008-01-22 01:13:00
BBC: Iran sanctions accord 'imminent' These would be the first sanctions after the last National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran?s nuclear activities, and the first after the infamous Strait of Hormuz incident.The chance of sanctions be successfully applied will depend on China and Russia ?s willingness to press Iran further after the NIE. U.S. intentionsThese sanctions are intended to pressure Iran to answer vital questions about its nuclear program. Iran has promised to do this, but one can expect the usual responses.Iranian responseWill this provoke Iran or will this further compel the Islamic state to give up its program? If sanctions are passed, this will most definitely pressure Iran by showing the world?s unity against its nuclear program, especially understanding that the sanctions would come after the NIE.Effect on Iranian electionsLegislative elections are coming in March. Will this have an effect? I don?t know enough about Iranian politics to make a very well informe...
More About: Middle East

The Real Republican Winner in Nevada
2008-01-20 16:35:00
As much as I hate saying it (and I really do hate saying it), I'd say the real winner on the Nevada Republican side yesterday was Ron Paul. He came in a far second behind Mitt Romney, who was the only candidate to really contest this race. And yet, Paul did better than many mainstream candidates.On another note, it looks like Fred Thompson is out of it. That's too bad, because I liked him, for a Republican candidate.
More About: Real , Winner

A Plan for Pakistan
2008-01-17 23:08:00
Our troops are sitting on the Afghan-Pakistan border, staring across from the Afghan side. They can practically see Taliban strongholds. Why don?t they attack?That was my opinion only yesterday. The only other option, as I saw it, was to sit back and watch.Sitting back and watching isn't the only option other than attacking: we can be proactive. We can build alliances with tribal leaders, help the average Pakistani, promote democracy, etc.Going into Pakistan and targeting high value targets might seem smart in the short run, but in the long run, the consequences would be disastrous. Number one, we might not even get the target; number two, we would enrage local leaders, who would distrust us for years to come; and three, we would create new terrorists by giving current terrorists easy propaganda.On the other hand, we could make alliances with local leaders, promote democracy, or in other words, gain the support of the Pakistani people. With the Pakistani people supporting us, suppo...
More About: Terrorism , Middle East , Plan

A 'Mini-Surge' in Afghanistan
2008-01-16 00:58:00
U.S. sending 3,200 Marines to Afghanistan This is very smart move by the U.S. government ? though there are some complications.A brief backgroundAfghanistan has been off the radar here in the U.S.; nearly all policy discussions have been over Iraq. That is, until recently, when the possibility of this ?Afghanistan surge? came up.Afghanistan has needed the equivalent of a small surge for a while; growing drug problems (no pun intended), a Taliban comeback in the south, and a destabilized Pakistan to the east have all complicated NATO?s mission in Afghanistan.Even still, NATO allies have been reluctant to send more troops, even after repeated requests by the U.S.A good ideaNot only does this ?mini surge? have the potential to solve many stability issues in Afghanistan, it also could encourage other countries to send more troops to Afghanistan. Or, in the case of Canada, influence their decision of whether or not to pull out all of their troops.But back to the surge?s potential: Afghani...
More About: Terrorism , Middle East , Mini , Surge

[POLL] Who Benefited Most from the New Hampshire Primaries?
2008-01-13 22:46:00
Who benefited most from the NH Democratic Primaries ?Hillary ClintonBarack ObamaJohn EdwardsBill RichardsonDennis KucinichMike GravelRon Paul!!!1!!1!!!!!!!1  pollcode.c om free polls
More About: Poll , New Hampshire , Hampshire

Poll: Bullshit Is Most Important Issue For 2008 Voters
2008-01-11 00:48:00
Poll: Bullshit Is Most Important Issue For 2008 Voters
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How Clinton Pulled it Off
2008-01-10 02:06:00
After Clinton ?s stunning comeback yesterday, it is important to ask the question: How did Hillary win (and how did the polls get it so wrong)?She didn?t have one silver bullet that boosted her performance; it was a combination of many things:? Her superior organization? The female vote? Clinton?s cry? The over hype of Obama (this answers the second part of the question)In that order. Her organization, her money and her endorsements helped her raise awareness and to get out the vote. Specifically, the women vote. About 57% of New Hampshire voters that voted Democrat were women. They carried Clinton out from behind (interesting to note: Obama received the majority of women?s vote in Iowa).Now, I tried not to get into to this to much when I saw it online, but a lot of analysis are claiming Hillary got the sympathy vote for when she teared up. Interestingly enough, Mitt Romney did the same thing, albeit a few months ago, and didn?t come out from behind. It?s more likely the ?cry? may ha...
More About: Linton

A Clinton Comeback -- Again?
2008-01-09 02:48:00
I've been watching the polls for the last hour, and it looks like Clinton could maintain her 4 or 5% lead. That would be huge for her campaign. HUGE. Political Realm, really my source for campaign news (other than the mainstream media), predicted Obama winning by 12%, and I had Obama winning as well. Probably most pundits too. It would be an incredible boost to her campaign.
More About: Comeback , Linton

Anti Clinton Spam
2008-01-08 22:38:00
Clinton's not such a bad candidate, so I wasn't exactly elated when I received this spam, because it also reminded me of those rumors people are spreading about Obama and Romney:RE: Coming witchcraft of Senator Hillary RODHAM CLINTON in politics, also. Like in the witchery, at her age of 61 years old Senator Hillary RODHAM CLINTON is to become overnight a candidate for a change, pulling a rabbit out of her hat. This can happen only in the witchcraft that she and her husband William J. CLINTON, former President reportedly believe in and practice. This is what comes up in the Google search under words of their names, witchcraft, satanic and/or Shamanism, subject to easy verification. The proverb goes that an old dog cannot learn new tricks. The final say belongs to the American people, casting their votes in primaries. The change is contrary to the background of Senator Hillary RODHAM CLINTON. This is proven by facts of her own making. Since the beginning she has ...
More About: Spam , Clinton , Anti , Linton

New Hampshire Primary Predictions
2008-01-07 22:23:00
My New Hampshire predictions:DemocratsBarack ObamaHillary ClintonJohn EdwardsThis state will be another success for Obama in a string of successes. After winning in an overwhelming majority white state (Iowa), he will take the lead here. From there, he will lose the Nevada caucus but go on to win the South Carolina primary, with the state?s large African-American population. That could potentially springboard him to Tsunami Tuesday. That is Clinton?s biggest worry.Also expect Richardson to stay in the race; he?s waiting for Hispanic Nevada.RepublicansJohn McCainMitt RomneyRudy GiulianiMike HuckabeeRon PaulThe maverick is back and Romney is down. Romney lost a decent amount of his aura in Iowa, and the few Evangelical Christians in the state will be supporting Huckabee, who in turn will not receive much of the NH vote.This is Ron Paul?s chance to shine. His nonconformist, libertarian stance in a nonconformist, libertarian state will allow him to stand out of the crowd. Could he beat ...
More About: Predictions , New Hampshire Primary , Primary

[POLL] Who Benefited Most From the Iowa Caucuses?
2008-01-06 22:19:00
Who benefited most from the Iowa caucuses?Hillary ClintonBarack ObamaJohn EdwardsBill RichardsonRudy GiulianiMitt RomneyMike HuckabeeJohn McCainFred ThompsonOther  pollcode.com free polls
More About: Poll , Caucuses , Iowa caucuses

Liveblogging Iowa Caucuses
2008-01-04 02:50:00
10:55 AP: Chris Dodd drops outI think it's pretty much fair to say Obama and Huckabee have won.9:51 Obama up 7%; 1611 of 1781 precincts in9:33 Obama up 6%9:27 CBSNews projecting Obama as winner.9:24 And it's Huckabee in Iowa people, by what looks like a 5%-8% margin in front of Mitt Romney. That wasn't my prediction, but I guess Iowa must have more religious lunatics than I thought.9:10 CBS News forecasts Huckabee winning Republican caucuses.8:55 Obama passes Edwards, takes 1st; 630 of 1781 precincts reporing8:51 Obama passes Hillary to take 2nd so far; 554 of 1781 precincts reporting8:45 From http://www.iowacaucusresults.com/, the Iowa Democrat's Caucus website (I added the time signature):Kinda surprising.I'll be liveblogging by the way, for the next hour or so at least.
More About: Caucuses , Iowa caucuses , Liveblogging

Iowa Predictions
2008-01-03 01:59:00
Democrats:1.Hillary Clinton2.Barack Obama3.John Edwards4. Joe BidenClinton, Obama, and Edwards will have nearly the same number of votes, but I predict it will be in that order. Biden will come out as a surprise and do better than expected.Republicans1. Mitt Romney2. Mike Huckabee3. Fred Thompson/John McCain4. John McCain/Fred ThompsonRomney and Huckabee is a toss up, but I'm betting Romney will come out on top. After that, McCain could pull a strong showing, but so could Thompson.
More About: Iowa , Predictions

Why John McCain Will Never Win
2008-01-02 00:08:00
I almost wrote the polar opposite of this article: John McCain, Surgin? Back? He has a lot of bipartisan support, plenty of endorsements, was right about the surge, and is a solid conservative. The only thing missing is his unpopular immigration position and funds. But that?s the thing: McCain will never succeed because of his immigration position.His poll numbers have been rising, sure, but as I?ve argued before, Republicans have no dream candidate. They are going through ?fads?, almost.But there?s an even broader issue here: immigration is showing up to be the most decisive primary election issue, more decisive than the Iraq war and terrorism even. One reason for this is that all candidates have expressed their positions on the war, and it?s turned out to be a matter of Republican or Democrat; Republicans want to stay (excluding Ron Paul), and Democrats want to leave.There?s more than that: illegal immigration, many Americans feel, is actually affecting them on almost a day to day...
More About: Illegal Immigration , John McCain

Pakistan delays election
2008-01-01 00:47:00
Pakistan delays electionIt could only be expected. In other news, Benazir Bhutto's husband and son were appointed co-chairmen of the PPP, as I predicted.
More About: Middle East , Pakistan , Election , Delays