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Could Commercial Real Estate drop 15%?
2007-09-05 19:28:00
In today's Bloomberg report, commercial real estate is looking at slowing sales and price adjustments, since July sales were the lowest in almost a year:Prices of U.S. commercial real estate could fall up to 15% in what would be the worst decline since the 2001 recession, Bloomberg reported Wednesday. "People aren't willing to do deals right now," said Howard Michaels, chairman of Carlton Advisory Services. "The expectation is that prices will come down." In July, investors bought the fewest commercial properties in almost a year and apartment building purchases were down 50% from June. Last month, the Archstone-Smith Trust postponed its $13.5 billion sale to a group led by Tishman Speyer Properties until October. Mission West, which owns commercial properties in Silicon Valley, said two weeks ago that its $1.8 billion sale might collapse because a bank has withdrawn funding. "There are so many deals falling apart," said David Lichtenstein, CEO of commercial property owner Lightst...
More About: Commercial , Estate , Real Estate , Real , Merc

Technology: New Jott email today
2007-09-05 05:22:00
Here's what's new:Link your voice to your online worldJott Links: Now you can update your blog, Twitter?, add to your 30 boxes? to do list or send a message through Yahoo Groups? - all with Jott! For example, when Jott asks you "Who do want to Jott" just say "Twitter", speak your message and your update will appear in text on Twitter. Not bad, huh? Click here to set up your Twitter Jott Link For those real estate mavens we have created an easy way to get a "Zestimate?". Just call Jott, say "Zillow" and you'll be prompted to give the address details. In minutes a Zestimate will be sent via text to your cell phone and e-mail. Twitter?, Jaiku?, Zillow?, 30 boxes?, Blogger?, Word Press?, Live Journal?, TypePad? and Yahoo Groups? are all accessible with Jott...and we're adding more soon. Click here to set up your Jott Links. Stay organized with Folders, Reminders and more!Jott Folders: With Jott Folders you create preset categories for your Jotts to self. Set up folders for family...
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Why California housing matters?
2007-09-04 06:55:00
One of my news alerts had an interesting article from Steven Levy, senior economist based in Palo Alto. Levy's reasoning is deceptively simple, "there's a limit to what people can afford". But why should the rest of the nation be concerned with housing in Calif ornia :Even multiple cuts in the Federal Reserve's target federal-funds rate, he argues, won't necessarily help until prices become more rational. With 10.7 months of unsold inventory, not counting homes that would be on the market if sellers thought there would be buyers, he believes Californians can expect another few years of difficulty, depending on the speed of this housing correction. Why should non-Californians care about the California housing market, especially when the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index shows year-over-year increases in such cities as Charlotte, N.C., Portland, Ore., and Seattle? Because the Golden State accounts for 13% of the country's gross domestic product or the total value of all goo...
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Real Estate's Ph.D. in action
2007-09-03 18:42:00
I found this article endorsing the CCIM designation this morning and as a CCIM it is welcome sight to see the benefits of our network in action: Real estate broker Elizabeth Tilbury was still in the process of obtaining the professional designation CCIM when the effort started paying off. A broker from California, who possessed the highly respected certification in real estate investment, telephoned Tilbury based on her status as a CCIM candidate. The broker's client was looking to buy an apartment complex of a particular size and value -- did Tilbury know of any matches in Portland? As a result of that inquiry, Tilbury, representing the seller, sold a 200-unit complex in Beaverton, earning a handsome commission...
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Manager's Cheat Sheet
2007-08-31 07:48:00
I had a few requests to post the Manager's Cheat Shee t (101 common sense rules for Leaders) that I posted through my Digg account, but it didn't come through on some feeds.. The categories include body language, getting along with employees, managing yourself, etc. and all of the subcategories for topics.. Worth posting since it didn't transfer thru Digg..
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Doom and Gloom within a month?
2007-08-29 07:20:00
On light volume with consumer confidence waning and the Fed minutes indicating that they "might" have known that a credit crunch was coming, the market technicals indicate a continual downturn in the markets. In the news today, National home sales continue to slump; the San Diego housing starts are down 37 percent from last year; another capital management firm must liquidate a multi-billion dollar fund; and, a 21-year veteran of the US Treasury Dept and NASA offered one of the gravest predictions I've seen thus far. Let's hope he's only half right:On Market Predictions in the Current Chaotic Environment. by Richard C. Cook Global Research, August 28, 2007 No one can predict how deep the decline in Western economies that is underway will go, because there is so little transparent information. Within the U.S., the government is hiding the severity of the crisis in order to prevent a collapse of consumer confidence. Realize that the problem does not lie on the side of production....
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The Scarcity Shortage [Digg]
2007-08-27 17:20:00
Godin discusses the scarcity of...well scarcity.
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Smartphone Lab Test: iPhone vs. 7 Top Wireless Wonders [Digg]
2007-08-25 19:38:00
Popular mechanics reviews the top "smartphones" on the market
More About: Wireless , Smartphone , Iphone , Digg , Wonders

If history is any guide?
2007-08-23 03:06:00
One of the benefits of the CCIM network is the fact that commercial brokers actively pass on the most current and relevant information in the market amongst the group. Below is the most recent example of the information that is passed via the listserv of professionals across the country:Below is a dial in number and password for a tape recorded conference call with the Head of Economics at The Wharton School of Business, Dr. Linneman. I?ve heard Dr. Linneman speak twice in person and he is extremely we versed on the global economies. It is certainly worth your time to spend 15-20 minutes of your day listening to this recording, which will surely enlighten you on where we are today, how we arrived here and how long it should take for the sub-prime debacle to correct itself before we can return to more of a normalized market.To access the recording, please call at any time:Playback Dial-in: (641) 715-3439Passcode: 325596#Key Highlights of the CallTwo Main Issue...
More About: History , Guide , Tory , Guid

The Manager's Cheat Sheet: 101 Common Sense Rules for Leaders [Digg]
2007-08-22 21:36:00
Management is all about connecting with the people on your team. So how do you effectively manage a team? With common knowledge of people, of course. These are a few back-to-basics rules that will help you develop essential management skills.
More About: Cheat , Sense , Digg , Sheet , Rules

Californians more likely to bite off more than they can chew
2007-08-22 07:29:00
The University of the Pacific in Stockton has a great website, in which the Center produces quarterly economic forecasts of the United States, Calif ornia and 11 Metropolitan areas from Sacramento to Fresno and San Francisco Bay Area. The Eberhardt School of Business is one of a handful of Business schools producing comprehensive quarterly forecasts of the U.S. economy. In addition, the quarterly metropolitan forecasts cover several regions in California's Central Valley not covered by other forecasts.This week's Graph of the Week discusses two fundamental factors which determine a household's ability to own a house...There are two fundamental factors which determine a household?s ability to own a house: the price of the house and income. The price of houses in California has always been among the highest in the nation. Data from the California Association of Realtors (CAR) shows that in 2006, the median price of a single family home in the state was over $556K - more than twic...
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Web 2.0 Universe [Digg]
2007-08-22 06:30:00
A detailed list of major stars (players) in the web 2.0 universe of real estate
More About: Universe , Digg , Web 2.0 , Univers

The Secret to Getting Others to Talk about You [Digg]
2007-08-21 18:08:00
Mary would passionately tell anyone willing to listen about her son's new company. One of the people who listened was a fellow United Way board member: John Opel. Five years later, John ? president of IBM is looking for a computer os. And where does he go? To Redmond, Washington to meet Mary?s son ? Bill Gates. Ah, the power of contacts!
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Market pressuring Fed to lowering rates even more [Digg]
2007-08-21 16:16:00
The dramatic decline in the yield on short-term Treasury bills on Monday further strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon embark on an aggressive series of interest rate cuts. By the close of trading the market was pricing in roughly one-and-a-half quarter-point cuts by the Fed?s next scheduled policy meeting on September
More About: Market , Digg , Rates , Rate , Erin

Global Credit Crunch Timeline [Digg]
2007-08-18 21:50:00
The Fed cuts the discount rate 1/2 point on 8/17/07. Here's the timeline to the Fed's intervention.
More About: Credit , Global , Digg , Timeline , Crunch

Need House values sent to your mobile?
2007-08-17 23:20:00
One of the 1st American Title agents in Northern California that provides great information on his blog, sent this one about House front.com. All you have to do is text your property address, city, and state to (house) 46873 on your cell phone, and 30 seconds later, you have the property info, owner, price paid, and estimated value of the property. (In most cases) Find Real Estate Valuations for over 100 million homes!
More About: Mobile , Values , Ouse , Bile

Rumor: Is the City of Stockton looking to take advantage of the banks?
2007-08-17 00:06:00
I spoke with a lender rep this morning (responsible for meeting with defaulted homeowners and trying to work-out a feasible solution with the lender and homeowner - instead of putting the home thru the foreclosure process) and he heard that the City of Stockton is looking to fine defaulted homeowners and bank-owned properties $500/day for the lack of attention to the appearance of blighted homes in city neighborhoods (remember that San Joaquin leads the nation in foreclosure activiy in the US).This could potentially put the banks in a more tenuous situation (as if they don't need more bad news) that would find a superior lien placed on their assets prior to foreclosure and the potential for the city to take possession of the property.On another note, this ad in craigslist in Dallas is worth passing along..
More About: Rumor , Banks , Advanta

Why are the CPI numbers on 8/15 important?
2007-08-15 01:35:00
1. Tomorrow's CPI numbers will give us an indication of the Fed's next move in the market. If the CPI is lower (than expected), then the risk of inflation will not deter the Fed from jumping into the market with more money to keep us move forward (or on an even-keel - I'm sure some would argue this move regardless). BUT, if the CPI is higher (than expected), then the Fed's hands will be tied and they will stay away from any injections into the market that would exacerbate the risks of higher inflation. With the Fed staying away, the market will be free to fall on its own (the general consensus being a fall to a point near March lows).2. Another hot topic that just came about today is the fact that certain Money Market funds will not honor their redemption values (these are the funds that your brokerage accounts park cash into when they're not placed into securities, bonds, or mutual funds). If the brokerage houses can't guarantee that your cash value will remain positive while...
More About: Numbers , Import , Number

Why is Wednesday (8/15) important?
2007-08-14 01:04:00
I had a couple of interesting observations passed on this morning after speaking with several clients in the bay area that follow the markets (real estate and wall street). First, there is particular interest on Wall Street this Wednesday . It is the last day that that investors have (given the 45-day notice to withdraw funds requirement) to notify hedge funds of their intent to withdraw funds by the end of the third quarter. Below is an portion of the article emailed: Unnerved by heavy losses at some of the $1.75 trillion industry's most famous offerings, including AQR Capital Management, Highbridge Capital Management, D.E. Shaw and Goldman Sachs (GS.N: Quote, Profile, Research), many people want out before things get worse. But exiting can be a difficult process in an industry where managers routinely lock up money for months, if not years, and often require 45 days' advance notice before returning it. To pull out at the end of the third quarter, investors wil...
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Are we seeing spillover into Commercial?
2007-08-14 00:39:00
I spoke with one of my bay area clients this morning and he informed me that the $1.8B buyout from Starwood Capital Group for Mission West Properties (as mentioned in a recent article) fell through this morning. Apparently, Starwood could not secure financing for the deal and has dropped their bid to purchase the Silicon Valley industrial inventory. We also spoke about several other commercial deals that he and other developers are "watching very closely" to see if there is going to be a spillover effect in the commercial sector.As I pulled up my Monday morning national journal reports, I noticed that commercial foreclosures in North Texas have increased 30% over last year at this time (highest in the Metroplex since 1994). From the article: Commercial foreclosure postings in North Texas through August have reached their highest level in 13 years as the downturn in the housing market clouds the broader real estate picture. So far this year, 806 commercial buildings have been list...
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Why is Countrywide going after brokers?
2007-08-10 18:40:00
A friend of mine in the mortgage business told me that Countrywide is aggressively going after brokers around the country. Why?.. to get some of their money back that they provided brokers with during the last few years in terms of rebates and broker kick-backs. In the event that the brokers can't come up with the funds, they are "requesting" that they sign over their companies to Countrywide or face litigation. It seems to be a cheap way to grow the company's footprint "under the radar" and in light of its "unprecented disruptions" in future profits, as reported from the Mortgage Insider blog at the OCRegister:Countrywide Financial Corp. today said the market for debt it needs to fund itself is experiencing “unprecedented disruptions” that could impact its future profits and financial condition. In its second-quarter filing with the SEC, the lender said there is less liquidity in the debt market and greater “risk premiums.” I imagine Countrywide means it may have to pay...
More About: Brokers , Going , Goin

Quicksand
2007-08-09 06:07:00
The Boston Herald reported today that a bill has recently passed the Mass. State Senate and is awaiting State House approval to protect renters that would otherwise be thrown out of a foreclosed home that they were renting. Under the measure, anyone who acquires property through foreclosure would have to let tenants stay until the renter's existing leases run out.The problem arises when the savvy "subprime" borrower (speculator) leases the property to his children/relatives at below market rents for extended terms allowing the banks (hedge funds) to foreclose the property. Now, the banks would be saddled with foreclosed property years later waiting for these "sweatheart" leases to expire.Yet another fallout from the foreclosure crisis has been large numbers of renters who lose their housing through no fault of their own, said State Sen. Sue Tucker, an Andover Democrat who sponsored the bill. The Senate felt very strongly that tenants deserve some protection.The speculator's childr...

RPX - Residential Property Index
2007-08-09 00:29:00
If the residential market hasn't seen it's share of inflated values from the flow of easy money lately, now investors can trade in the RPX ("Resident ial Prop erty Index "). The RPX will enable users to trade residential property prices in 25 MSA's nationwide in addition to a composite index based on those 25 cities. The trades are based upon an initiation of trading in derivative instruments and financial products based on the RPX from Radar Logic.Radar Logic uses a proprietary modeling technique to create Daily Prices derived from the actual prices paid for US Residential real estate, which the Federal Reserve reports in total aggregated value of assets held to be $22.9 trillion as of 3/31/07.I wonder if the lenders will short their positions on the RPX in order to hedge their bets against the underlying foreclosures that will result as ARM's readjust. This tactic is used by managers of oil & gas assets to limit their downside on future price fluctuations, and now the largest...

Credit Market Report
2007-08-08 01:09:00
Credit Market Report August 7, 2007 (Requested by a client to forward as a post)U.S. Treasury prices fell and yields rose as investors pushed money back towards stocks on Monday while the corporate bond market remains stagnant. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its largest gain of the year yesterday, helping to erase significant losses incurred last week. Corporate credit markets, notably investment-grade corporate bonds, have ground to halt making it difficult for firms to access capital and leaving investors with little good options. The dry-up in available capital is largely due to an increase in investor risk aversion caused by the problems of the sub-prime mortgage market. For July, U.S. corporate bond issuance was down 77% from June, with only 25 high-grade issuings for July, compared to 94 in June and 121 in May. Tuesday brings the Federal Open Market Committee?s meeting on interest rates and updates on productivity and consumer credit will be released. Sentiment among ...
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Foreclosures, Tax consequences & bankruptcies
2007-08-06 19:11:00
Business bankruptcies are up 66% nationwide from the 1Q of 2007 to 1Q of 2006.. "Part of it certainly is a rebound from changes in bankruptcy law," said Daniel North, chief economist with Euler Hermes ACI, a credit insurance company in Owings Mills, Md. The changes attempt to shift filers away from liquidation into repayment plans. "The other part is a deteriorating economy due to high energy prices, a tightened monetary policy and the housing meltdown," he said. "We're seeing pressure, particularly on suppliers of building materials and anybody who relies on the housing industry." Locally, the crunch is most obvious in real estate deals and transactions, said Dale Ginter, a bankruptcy attorney with Downey Brand LLP, Sacramento's largest law firm. "People who were able to refinance or sell their way out can't do it now," he said. "And my guess is it will continue for another year or so."The other problem that foreclosed subprime borrowers will feel is the tax consequen...
More About: Foreclosures , Sequences , Consequences , Cons , Fore

The Credit Peloton
2007-08-05 07:14:00
Let's start out with the peloton (French, meaning a small military group or platoon), which is most notably recognized as "the pack" in the annual Tour de France, cycling's premier race. Friday's troubles in the credit markets reminded me of this year's tour, which was riddled with controversy over doping issues from several lead cyclists (remembering that last year's US tour winner - Floyd Landis - may still be stripped of his title pending further investigation).There are "to good to be true" mortgage products (along with lead cyclists) that race out ahead of the peloton pushing the limits of stamina, endurance and fatigue to provide the best investments to the secondary (hedge fund) markets. Then, one of two events occur (and has occurred). Either, the drugs wear off and the sprinter can't sustain the pace, burning out during the race and being overtaken by the peloton; or, the drugs don't wear off and the cyclist wins the race, but skeptical officials (the "market") test ...
More About: Credit , Loto

Tea Leaf Update
2007-08-02 22:10:00
A couple of years ago at the national Coldwell Banker Commercial convention in San Francisco, I sat in on a speech given by an economist (Jeff Thredgold) about the current state of affairs around the country. Since then, I have been receiving his weekly updates about current topics affecting our economy via PDF. Below is a brief exert from this week's Tea Leaf Update :Many Wall Street and global commercial banks and investment banks are currently sitting on billions of dollars of ?loans? they never had an intention to keep on their books. Such firms act as the bridge lender between a private equity firm in getting a new deal financed and the ultimate purchaser of the loans, such as hedge funds, retirement funds, wealthy individuals, insurance companies, etc. Many of these ultimate debt buyers are currently telling major banks ?Thanks but no thanks?we don?t want any more.? Nobody wants the hot potato. The ripple in financial markets? The shar...

Trulia Hindsight [Digg]
2007-08-01 21:48:00
Trulia's Hinds ight tool shows the growth of cities in the entire USA. This link shows the growth of Lodi, CA from the 1950's to 2006. Move the map to your area to see the growth patterns.
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3 traits for a successful commercial agent
2007-08-01 21:36:00
Before jumping on a plane with a client to make a mediation date, I spotted this article (via The Legacy Group Blog in San Fran) about the traits of a successful commercial real estate agent.. I'd agree and I'm sure I could provide more (time willing)..Here's the short list..Do I Have an Entrepreneurial Mindset?Do I Have a Passion to Help Others Succeed?Do I Have an Internal Personal Belief System That Supports My Success?View article..
More About: Agent , Commercial , Merc , TRAI , Gent

Vista Tweaker [Digg]
2007-08-01 08:59:00
Very similar to the previously-mentioned Vispa, Vista Tweak er has easier to navigate menus and can be used (with limited functionality) in Windows XP. VistaTweaker's interface is grouped in easy to navigate tabs with categories for: system, UI, IE, software, network, and performance. Free download at site.
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