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Lansner on Real EstateLansner on Real EstateLansner on Real Estate covers news and views for and about the Orange County housing market from Orange County Register columnist Jon Lansner and other Register reporters. 
Articles
25% of O.C. homebuyers grab a foreclosure
2008-08-04 12:33:00 One-in-four homes resales in Orange County in the second quarter — OK, 25.1% — were residences that had been involved in a foreclosure in the previous 12 months. That’s the results of a nifty study done by our pals at DataQuick. (For you conspiracy buffs out there: No, DataQuick sales figures DO NOT include the homes taken back by bankers in a given period.) Foreclosure frequency in O.C. looks pretty good vs. the rest of the state, where 40% of second-quarter sales had previously been through a foreclosure. (And it was 73.3% in Merced!) How the rest of the state’s most-actively selling counties shape up with this stat: Rank County Foreclosure Q2 share Rank County Foreclosure Q2 share 1 Merced 73.3% 22 Calaveras 34.0% 2 San Joaquin 69.6% 23 Santa Barbara 33.6% 3 Stanislaus 69.4% 24 Ventura 33.0% 4 Yuba 66.0% 25 Lake 32.8% 5 San Benito 63.0% 26 Kings 30.0% 6 Sacramento 61.4% 27 Los Angeles 29.1% 7 Sutter 60.2% 28 Shasta 28.2% 8 Riverside 58.5%... More About: Grab
July’s most sizzlin’ real estate stories
2008-08-04 00:26:00 Hot summertime readin’. The Register’s online page-view counter tells your blogger that these were this blog’s news that you folks clicked on the most in July , Lansner on Real Estate ’s “Blue Ribbon” postings, so to speak … 1. Builders shave $430,000 off new O.C. house prices 2. Walk 150 feet, save $25 million on a house 3. Irvine called 4th best place to live in U.S. 4. Huntington/Seal Beach ranked as O.C.’s top housing market 5. O.C.’s first bank failure in 14 years (Psst: Just click on any of these headlines to get to the full story!) … and here’s the postings that drew the most reader comments last month (and you can still comment away) … 1. Just 2 O.C. ZIPs see sales gain in 1st half 2. Rents go flat at O.C.’s 3-bedroom townhomes 3. Insider Q&A hears Coto housing ‘down significantly’ 4.Demand for O.C. homes off 11% in 2 weeks 5. 85% of high-end owners see home prices rising • MORE BLUE RIBBONS: To see prev... More About: Stories , Real Estate
Insider Q&A hears Fed will ’sit tight’ on rates
2008-08-02 09:37:00 Who ever said things were slow in the summer hasn’t talked to the Federal Reserve lately. The nation’s central banker’s juggle their interest rate policies against conflicting fears — sinking housing’s impact on a weak economy vs. looming inflationary pressures (think four-buck gasoline.) Fed next meets Tuesday. We checked in with five local folks to hear what they thought the Fed — which last time made no rate cut for the first time in 10 months — might do … Professor Joe Magaddino at Long Beach State: The Fed will sit tight for the time being. A quarter-point rate increase is not beyond the realm of possibility but would largely be symbolic. If crude prices continue to ease, the Fed has some breathing room. I don’t think that you will see rates rise until the economy starts to improve, in the latter part of 2009. The credit crunch problem does not appear to be over. For monetary policy to work, we need a well-functioning f... More About: Rates , Insider
Lyon Homes prices fall 11% in Q2
2008-08-02 02:00:00 Newport Beach-based homebuilder William Lyon Homes reported today that its average California home price was $503,600 in the quarter ending June 30, a 5.5% reduction from the same quarter in 2007. The average price fell 11% to $417,700 for sales in all three states (California, Nevada and Arizona) where the company builds homes. The drop is due to falling home prices and to a shift to sales of more lower-priced homes, the company said in its second quarter earnings report. Lyon Homes reported net losses of $38.9 million for the three-month period, compared to losses of $76.9 million in the second quarter of 2007. The profit margins on homebuilding dropped to 4.5%, down from 14.4% in the same period a year ago. New home orders fell 15% to 418 during the quarter, and the number of homes closed fell 42% to 319, the company said. Previous posts: Lyon Homes prices fall 19% in Q1 Lyon Homes to mothball 10 projects O.C. builder Lyon sees ‘no immediate improvement’ Lyon sells SoCal lot... More About: Fall , Prices
Anaheim condo sale draws a buying crowd
2008-08-01 20:56:00 Windstar Communities LLC drew a wait-in-a-line crowd last Saturday to its condo sale at Stadium Lofts in the Anaheim “Platinum Triangle” near Angel Stadium. (Click on pictures above for larger views!) The developer’s Eric Heffner reports that it had 15 pre-approved shoppers and it got contracts to buy 48 of the 58 condos offered up at what was billed as steep discounts. Heffner says Windstar is now reapproaching those on the list who didn’t buy with an additional 12 units to choose from, at slightly higher prices. ‘We’re pretty excited Heffner says. “Here’s huge, pent-up demand out there.” Register reporter Hang Nguyen was on the scene Saturday and reported … The developer cut the condo prices because roughly 18 months after the Stadium Lofts were completed, more than half of the project’s 390 units remain unsold, the developer said at the beginning of this month. These 58 units on sale have gotten the least interest... More About: Buying , Sale , Condo , Crowd
Downscale ZIPs power mid-July homebuying surge
2008-08-01 09:33:00 A summertime homebuying surge that could end a 33-month slump is being powered by a dozen, primarily downscale O.C. ZIPs — Anaheim’s 92802, 92804, 92806; Buena Park 90620; Fullerton 92833; Garden Grove 92844; Lake Forest 92630; Midway City 92655; Orange 92866; Santa Ana’s 92703 and 92707 and Stanton 90680. Each of these 12 neighborhoods saw sales gains for the 22 business days ended July 15 vs. a year ago exceed 50%. (Full ZIP code report IS HERE!) These latest home-selling stats from DataQuick show overall O.C. homebuying runs just 0.6% below a year ago. The last time O.C. home sales exceeded the year-ago pace for a full month was September 2005. How have sales begun to firm? Here’s a hint: Median selling price is off 26.3% vs. a year ago. And it’s been quite a fall from the pricing top: • Single-family homes are $184,000 or 26% below the peak of $720,000 hit in June 2007. • Condos are $136,000 or 29% below the peak of $470,000 hit in March &... More About: Power , Surge
Homeshoppers active in West. Trend or fluke?
2008-06-10 02:45:00 National Association of Realtors says today that its Pending Home Sales Index for West ern states rose 8.3% in April from March and is 4% percent higher than April 2007. NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun says: “Bargain hunters have entered the market en masse, especially in areas that have experienced double-digit price declines, but it’s unclear if they are investors or owner-occupants … Sharp price reductions are leading to a quicker discovery of price equilibrium points. The West is already seeing year-over-year gains in pending contracts.” (Need to know more? CLICK HERE!) That’s much like trends we’ve seen in O.C. Like … Deals to buy homes are running at their highest level in two years. So … Recent dealmaking uptick is ... Serious trend Total fluke Worth watching View Results More About: Trend , Active
Big Calif. land bankruptcy won’t hit Lennar’s O.C. plans
2008-06-09 19:28:00 Lennar’s Aliso Viejo office, home to the Miami-based builder’s West Coast operations, played a role in arranging the bankruptcy filing of major Calif ornia land owner Land Source. But LandSource’s woes should not impact Lennar’s plans for El Toro and Tustin airbases in O.C. LandSource, troubled by $1 billion in debts and a sick housing market, was created by Lennar to own some of its California projects (such as Newhall Park north of LA and the Mare Island military base near San Francisco) plus property in Ariziona, Florida, Texas and New Jersey. Please note that Lennar’s interests in the El Toro and Tustin airbases in O.C. were not in LandSource. (Read Register reporter Jeff Collins’ story on Lennar and the Great Park HERE!) Lennar sold off 68% of LandSource in early 2007 to a partnership funded in good part by the CalPERS state pension money. The price? $900 million. A spokesman said that Lennar, now a 16% owner of LandSource, is not responsible f... More About: Bankruptcy , Plans
Is Greenspan’s housing ‘froth’ distasteful after 3 years?
2008-06-09 09:00:00 Three years ago today — June 9, 2005 — then-Fed czar Alan Greenspan gave real estate watchers a new word: “froth.” He told Congress: Although a “bubble” in home prices for the nation as a whole does not appear likely, there do appear to be, at a minimum, signs of froth in some local markets where home prices seem to have risen to unsustainable levels. … plus, he said … The apparent froth in housing markets may have spilled over into mortgage markets. The dramatic increase in the prevalence of interest-only loans, as well as the introduction of other relatively exotic forms of adjustable-rate mortgages, are developments of particular concern. To be sure, these financing vehicles have their appropriate uses. But to the extent that some households may be employing these instruments to purchase a home that would otherwise be unaffordable, their use is beginning to add to the pressures in the marketplace. If you can stomach more, full text of the speech IS HERE! And here&... More About: Housing , Years
Big Calif. landowner seeks bankruptcy
2008-06-09 06:00:00 LandSource Communities Development — major owner of housing sites north of L.A. that’s funded in part with state pension dollars — late Sunday announced that it is seeking bankruptcy protection … For several months LandSource has attempted to reach agreement with its lenders on an interim plan that would provide the needed time for a complete review of its financial situation and the development of a long-term solution to the situation in which the partnership, like others in the real estate industry, currently finds itself. “LandSource believes chapter 11 provides the most effective means for the partnership to preserve the value of its business, meet postpetition obligations and maintain constituents’” said spokeswoman Tamara Taylor. LandSource said that, notwithstanding further retrenchments in both the Calif ornia and national real estate markets, it expects not only to survive the... More About: Bankruptcy
May’s hottest blog reading
2008-06-09 00:00:00 Register’s Web page-veiw counter tells your blogger that these were the blog tales that you folks clicked on the most in May, my “Blue Ribbon” postings, so to speak … 1. Emblem of O.C. boom now a short sale 2. O.C. record price set for near-ocean home 3. Builders pricing O.C. homes at ‘02 levels 4. Newport bayfront mansion listed at $38.5 million 5. Smaller O.C. homes take harshest price hits (Psst: Just click on any of these headlines to get to the full story!) … and here’s the postings that drew the most reader comments last month (and you can still comment away) … 1. Half of 2005-07 O.C. buyers owe more than home’s value 2. Smaller O.C. homes taking harshest price hits 3. Insider Q&A hears next home-price peak 5 years off 4. Demand for O.C. homes nears ‘06 levels 5. Newer O.C. apartments suffer more vacancies Note: Last month, comment No. 50,000 was posted! That means that since our start in March ‘06, somebody’s comments o... More About: Reading , Blog
Insider QA hears housing to be ‘healthy’ by ’09’s e
2008-06-07 09:42:00 Steve Rodgers took over late last year as CEO of Prudential California Realty, overseeing more than 90 offices from San Diego to San Luis Obispo area, including 21 in Orange County. The company is owned by Home Services of America, a division of Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway. We asked him recently how Prudential California is weathering the housing slowdown and his view of the market in O.C. Us: How has the slowdown in home sales affected Prudential California’s O.C. operations? Rodgers: The slowdown in the real estate market has caused us to look at all company expenses, streamline our budgets. We have streamlined some of our sales staff. There has been a natural attrition; some Realtors are committed to real estate as their sole profession and have stuck. Other agents have expressed interest in, and have moved on to, other endeavors. We have consolidated some offices in Orange County and all Southern California, where there was redundancy — two or more offic... More About: Housing , Healthy , Insider
Homebody’s top garden tips for your weekend
2008-06-07 06:00:00 The Register’s ace home design and gardening guru Cindy McNatt, author of the ‘Homebody’ blog (CLICK HERE), joins us with must-read tips for those destined for a weekend in the yard … The good ol’ shed ain’t what it used to be Diamond in the rough Garden er’s weekend weather report Goodbye gardening? More About: Tips , Weekend
O.C. houses off $199,000 from peak in mid-May
2008-06-06 18:04:00 Latest homebuying stats from DataQuick, for the 22 business days ended May 20, show modest sales strength, with O.C. deals closed still running above 2,000 residences — a level not seen from September to March. (Psst! That’s still not great. The 1988-2007 monthly average is 3,793!) But what has it taken to get O.C. homes moving a bit again? Like any retailer, a sale! Just 15 of O.C.’s 83 ZIPs have median selling prices above a year ago. (Full ZIP analysis IS HERE!) So look at this “discount” pricing by key O.C. slices … • The median selling price of a single-family houses is now $199,000 cheaper (a 27% markdown) vs. the June ‘07 peak of $734,000. • Condos are $105,000 (-22%) below March ’06’s $470,000 high. • Builders sell new residences $434,500 below the record of February ‘05 at $864,000 (that’s -50%, HALF OFF!) • Overall, the countywide median of $480,000 is down $165,000 (-26%) from its June ‘07 t... More About: Houses , Peak
Fewer day laborers seen in Orange. Why?
2008-06-06 09:03:00 Are anti-day-labor-solicitation laws working in Orange ? Here’s a slice of a recent report from The Register … ORANGE – Day-labor solicitation in six areas of the city notorious for drawing large numbers of workers has drastically diminished, city officials reported. “It seems to be diminishing here in Orange,” said City Manager John Sibley at Tuesday’s council meeting. The areas, which used to average 49 to 206 day laborers daily near hardware stores, doughnut shops and conveniences stores, now see about 10 to 93 laborers per day – a 55 percent to 80 percent reduction, according to the City Attorney’s Office. Solicitation has only increased near the city-run Resource Center, which is open for day laborers to look for work. Officials attribute the decrease in numbers to a set of ordinances enacted in January, including banning solicitation from sidewalks next to streets without parking lanes and by people while driving on a city street. (Read ...
Prop. 98 rent control measure narrowly loses in O.C.
2008-06-06 04:00:00 Although state voters this week roundly rejected a measure to phase out rent control, it lost by barely a whisker in Orange County. Prop . 98, which would have fixed a loophole in the eminent domain law but also would end rent control over time, lost 39%-61% statewide. In Orange County, the final tally was 49.3% for and 50.7% against. The Orange County election results were close to the informal poll on this blog this week, which had Prop. 98 losing 47.5% to 49.9% with (2.6% were undecided.) The measure had the strong backing locally of the Apartment Owners Association of Orange County, which argued it was a property rights issue. Tenants, seniors, mobile home and environmental groups contended it would wipe out all renters rights. Prop. 99, which just focused on the eminent domain loophole, won at both the state and local level, although the margin was smaller in Orange County. ORANGE COUNTY Yes No Prop. 98 49.30% 50.70% Prop 99 55.50% 44.50% STATEWIDE Prop.... More About: Control , Rent
Construction slump hammers Latino workers
2008-06-05 19:00:00 Pew Research Center’s latest report on the national employment picture of native-born and immigrant Latino workers, 14.2% of the U.S. labor force, offers this gloomy assessment of the housing debacle’s economic impact on this group … • Thanks largely to the ugly slump in the construction industry, U.S. unemployment rate for Latinos rose to 6.5% in the first quarter, well above the 4.7% rate for all non-Latinos. As recently as the end of 2006, the gap between those two rates had shrunk to an historic low of a half percentage point. • Latinos lost nearly 250,000 jobs over the past year because of construction’s slump. It’s quite a switch. Latinos found nearly 300,000 new jobs in the construction industry from the first quarter of 2006 to the first quarter of 2007. The current slump in construction wiped out those gains, virtually in their entirety. • Mexican immigrants specifically suffer in the construction downturn. Latino workers who exited cons... More About: Workers , Construction , Hammers , Slump
More O.C. homes for rent? HUD thinks so
2008-06-05 09:00:00 The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s latest Orange County market housing analysis suggests the so-called “shadow market” of homes and condos now being rented by individual owners — vs. big landlords’ complexes — is for real. During the early 2000s in North Orange County, the number of new single-family homes and condos being used as “shadow” rentals was increasing at 100 units a year, says the report. That jumped to 700 units a year after 2005. The same shadow trend was seen in South County, where new home/condo rentals rose from 100 a year during 2000-2005 to 300 units annually after that. It’s unclear how many of these were investment properties that always were planned as rentals and how many were rented by homeowners in financial trouble after the housing market peaked in 2006. The report also only only covered numbers through June of last year. With the mortgage meltdown since then, the increase in home/c... More About: For Rent , Homes , Rent
O.C. property investor goes ’70s rock for charity
2008-06-05 03:30:00 Robert Brunswick was a huge fan of Crosby (pictured right), Stills & Nash in high school and later while studying at UC Berkeley, rocking out to their tunes and attending concerts. Now 48 and the head of a successful commercial real estate investment firm in Newport Beach, Brunswick is still a fan. So he’s more than a little excited that these 1970s rock gods will headline an upcoming charity bash sponsored by his firm, Buchanan Street Partners. “As a kid, Crosby, Stills and Nash was one of my favorite bands,” said Brunswick, Buchanan Street’s founder, president and CEO. “As the creator of this event, I get to have some influence over who we get.” The event will be the second annual Encore for Education Charity Concert, set for June 12 at the House of Blues on the Sunset Strip. With tickets selling for up to $250 apiece, proceeds will benefit VH1’s Save the Music Foundation and Buchanan Children’s Charities, with cash ultimately go... More About: Property , Rock , Investor
Forget ‘08 and ‘09! Housing’s recovery seen far off
2008-06-04 21:23:00 What major builders are saying today … • “I believe the industry will continue to face rising pressures for certainly the next 12 to 18 months,” said Don Tomnitz, D.R. Horton’s president and chief executive, adding that “2010 will be the earliest we get a more solid homebuilding environment.” (Read MORE HERE!) • The chief executive of Toll Brothers Inc., the nation’s largest luxury-home builder, said Wednesday the housing industry is in a “depression” and any recovery could be two or three years away. (Read MORE HERE!) That pessimism was echoed by Zacks.com builder stock analyst Mario Ricchio: “We continue to recommend underweighting housing and housing-related stocks. The builders have another six to eight quarters of poor earnings ahead of them. Given the prospect of a further decline in housing starts, lower median home prices, and aggressive incentive use, industry profit margins ar... More About: Recovery , Housing
Would you like to invest in a 25% mortgage?
2008-06-04 09:33:00 KBS Realty Advisors of Newport Beach has launched the sale of stakes in its second real estate investment trust. KBS is perhaps best known for its co-founder: billionaire developer Don Bren’s brother, Peter. This may be a hot property niche, so to speak. KBS’ first REIT raised $273 million in the first quarter. And news of the new trust — press release is HERE — motivated your blogger to check out the older REIT. As of March 31, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings, the senior KBS REIT owned 55 buildings. But the most intriguing asset on the books of the older KBS REIT was its loan to a Manhattan construction project (see photo) that the New York Times described as “once a warehouse used by Chinese restaurants around the city, the neo-Renaissance-style building at 415 Greenwich Street in TriBeCa is getting a gut renovation that will turn its old loading docks into multimillion-dollar ‘bay houses’ with soaring interiors.&rd... More About: Mortgage , Invest
Rent or buy? O.C.’s purchasing math improves
2008-06-03 21:01:00 Moody’s Economy.com has taken some of the guess work out of the eternal question, “Should I rent or buy?” Their answer is the rent/buy ratio which is determined by dividing the median price of a house by the cost of renting that house for a year. David Leonhardt at the New York Times — a longtime advocate of renting — became a convert to buying based on the ratio when he was reassigned to Washington, D.C. this year. The good news for Orange County is that the rent ratio in the first quarter was 22.2, down from a peak of 29.7. “Rent ratios going down mean houses are becoming more affordable to buy,” says Arnold Slesers, the Economy.com economist who crunched the numbers. The bad news is that Orange County is tied for sixth highest rent ratio among the top 46 metropolitan areas, which means things are still expensive here. For instance, the ratio in Leonhardt’s new metropolitan Washington, D.C. area is an even more affordable 16.8. ... More About: Math
Newport mansion will now cost you $77 million
2008-06-03 09:10:00 John McMonigle’s Newport Coast dream house, Villa del Lago, had a $50 million asking price three years ago. But rising construction costs, added amenities– plus the perceived value of the 12.5-acre, hilltop custom home — has boosted the asking price upwards by $27 million to its current asking price of $77 million, according to the McMonigle Group. That makes Villa del Lago Orange County’s priciest listing, surpassing another home that McMonigle is selling, the $75 million Portabello Estate in Corona del Mar. McMonigle, Coldwell Banker’s top-producing luxury-home salesman and a custom-home developer, envisions Villa del Lago as a premier estate, with an 18,000-square-foot Italian-style mansion, stables, a tennis court, vineyard and a private lake. That $77 million will also get you a pool, guest house, guard house and a two-hole putting green. The three-level floor plan includes angled wings for the library/conservatory and family areas, a theater, exer... More About: Cost , Mansion , Million
Calif. home price down 24%, nation’s worst
2008-06-03 02:07:00 First American LoanPerformance says Calif ornia is again the nation’s worst housing market with prices falling at a 24.37% annual rate as of late April. California has held this dubious distinction since May ‘07. Following California in April price tumbles: Florida at -17.11%; Nevada at -16.61%; Arizona at -15.78%; and Ohio at -13.41%. Nation al best was Utah, up 4.13%, and Montana, +4.12%. Only 17 of the 50 states and District of Columbia showed price gains in the year, according to FALP’s math that tracks “paired sales” — gains or losses on individual homes. (To read more, CLICK HERE!) Other news about regional home pricing … • SoCal home price rebound not seen before 2010 • S&P puts LA/OC prices off 24% from peak • Realtors says California home prices down 32% More About: Home , Price
O.C. homes seen undervalued, 1st time since ‘03
More articles from this author:2008-06-02 21:01:00 Economists at Global Insight and National City Bank say Orange County housing is now 5.2% undervalued — yes, undervalued. That’s the first time this math shows local homes as relative bargains to broad economics since the second quarter of 2003. It’s also the largest undervaluation since the final three months of 2002. This O.C. undervaluation contrasts to 6.1% overvaluation found for the previous quarter; 22.8% overvaluation in 2007’s first quarter; and a peak overvaluation of 35% in 2006’s second quarter. (Chart shows O.C. valuation — overvalution is above the 0% line, undervaluation is below — since 1985.) Global Insight/National City economists track home valuation nationwide by mixing pricing data with interest rate, income and other demographics data. The undervalution fits with evidence that O.C. bargain hunters are nudging home sales up, with recent Re/Max data showing new purchase deals in the works at a two-year high. Clearly, Glo... More About: Time , Homes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 |
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