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Steep home-price dip doesn’t mean quick turnaround
2008-05-01 01:00:00
Wells Fargo economist Michael J. Swanson says the good news about the current housing downturn is that the sharper home values fall below their economic value, the faster they will recover.“The real demand for housing comes from household formation and personal income growth,” says Swanson in his latest Financial Market Strategies report. (CLICK HERE for the report.) “Currently, personal income growth has slowed, but household formation continues unabated. Eventually, the fundamental drivers of growth will overcome the downward momentum of the housing market. The question of course involves when.”Swanson doesn’t have that in his crystal ball. “Just as many people pointed out that the housing market was overvalued in 2005 only to see it rise further,” he says. “Pointing out that housing values have overcorrected to the downside doesn’t mean that the market won’t go down even further on negative sentiment and credit tightness. A ...
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The Fed drops key rate a quarter point
2008-04-30 20:34:00
The Federal Reserve reduced its key short-term interest rate today by a quarter point, dropping it to 2%. That was the lowest it’s been since November 2004 and is part of a effort begun last fall to jumpstart the flagging U.S. economy In addition to the 0.25% cut in the overnight rate Fed banks charge each other, the Fed’s Open Market Committee also reduced by a quarter point the “discount rate” it charges banks. The discount rate is now 2.25%. Board members expressed continued concern about the impact of the housing market and tight crunch on the economy: “Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and tight credit conditions and the deepening housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.” CLICK HERE for the full statement. For earlier stories on the Fed: Pimco’s Gross says slash mortgage balances Fed says West’s housing ‘exceptionally weak’ Fed aside, ‘08 housing rebound ‘w...
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Industrial property still hot in O.C.
2008-04-30 09:05:00
Grubb & Ellis says the place to be in O.C. real estate during the first quarter was in warehouses and other industrial space. Industrial vacancies here remained tight at 4.3% during the first quarter, just slightly above the 4% in the fourth quarter of 2007. That compares to the office market, which saw the vacancy rate jump to 14.9%. “The overall climate throughout the market place is one of cautious optimism, where solid product still demands a high price and where ‘all cash’ buyers still want to own property in this highly desirable market,” says Grubb in its latest report on industrial market trends in O.C. (CLICK HERE to see the report.) The airport area accounted for the majority of the sales and leasing activity in industrial space while North County had the lowest vacancy rate, at 3.3%. Grubb says the economic slowdown could even work to the benefit of the industrial market: “If the economy remains slow as expected over the next few quart...
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Building slump zaps drywall prices 36%
2008-04-30 04:02:00
Sheetrock-brand wallboard maker USG says its average North America selling price for its signature product was $104.41 per thousand square feet in the first quarter, down 36% from $164.12 in the year ago period. It’s just another building supply smacked. Have you seen what’s happened to lumber prices? Still, USG was relatively upbeat, noting a recent price hike but saying … “The housing market continues to be very challenging. New residential construction has shown signs of stabilizing at or around the current level, which is down about 50 percent from the peak in 2005. The market is likely to remain weak into 2009 as the inventory of unsold homes remains at historically high levels. The corporation expects declines in residential repair and remodeling expenditures and non-residential construction activity. The corporation has aggressively reduced overhead costs, cut discretionary spending and reduced staffing to mitigate the impact of weak market conditions...
More About: Building , Slump , Prices

Renters the winners in 2007 O.C. office market
2008-04-29 20:59:00
Studley Inc. reports tenants in the most-prized O.C. office space saw their overall cost of renting decline 6.8% last year. It was the first time in five years that total occupancy costs were down for tenants in top-tier, Class A buildings, based on Studley’s take on the market. That meant it was a tough year for building owners, who saw their cash flow drop 11.86% after accounting for tenant concessions and expenses, Studley says.Local office landlords haven’t seen a decline since 2002.Studley said as demand slows, the value of concession packages will increase this year. The company’s outlook: “Due to the slowdown in the housing market and its effect on mortgage-related companies, the Orange County market faces implied challenges in 2008.” The O.C. numbers were part of the annual Studley Effective Rent Index, which attempts to determine the true cost of occupancy rather than the average asking rent. Studley is a commercial leasing services compan...
More About: Office , Market , Winners

LA/OC home prices fall 19.4% in Feb.
2008-04-29 15:58:00
S&P/Case-Shiller indexes show LA/OC home prices off 19.4% in the year ended in February, the largest year-over-year drop in the index’s 21-year database and the fourth consecutive month to see record declines. (To see how that compares among the seven indexes tracked by this blog, CLICK HERE.) February marked the 13th consecutive month the S&P indexes found a year-over-year decline in local home values. February’s price was down 21.6% from the peak price reached in September 2006. During the housing slump of the 1990s, prices fell 27% from the peak to bottom. S&P’s nationwide composite index for February for 20 major cities saw prices down 12.7%. The U.S. index now sits 14.8% below its July 2006 peak. “There is no sign of a bottom in the numbers,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “Prices of single family homes continue to drop across the nation. All 20 metro areas were in the red for the Februa...
More About: Home , Fall

Maguire plan to sell all but O.C. towers rejected
2008-04-29 06:01:00
Maguire Properties rejected its chairman’s complex offer to buy 75% of the company’s stock using proceeds from the sale of nearly all of the investment trust’s assets outside of Orange County, according to a company press release. Robert Maguire offered $21 a share for the Real Estate Investment Trust, also known as a REIT. He would sell assets in Los Angeles, San Diego and perhaps Denver to pay stockholders for their shares. “The expression of interest is subject to numerous, substantial contingencies and questions,” the company’s statement said. In the view of a special committee of independent directors, “the expression of interest (is) not currently actionable.” The firm owns about 13 Orange County office properties acquired 14 months ago from Blackstone Group, plus three other high-profile sites in Irvine and Costa Mesa that it previously bought. It also is the largest office landlord in downtown Los Angeles. According to Reuters,...
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Vacant homes for sale hit record level
2008-04-29 03:01:00
The U.S. Census Bureau reports today that the rate of vacant homes for sale rose to 2.9% of non-rental U.S. homes during the first quarter of the year, the highest level in records dating back at least 40 years. That’s up from 2.8% in the first and fourth quarters of 2007. The January-to-March 2008 rate was even higher for the West: 4.3 percent of U.S. homes were vacant and up for sale, according to the census press release. The vacancy rate is deemed a key indicator of the nation’s housing supply. The fact that there were 1 million more vacant homes on the market in the first quarter is seen as a sign that home prices will continue falling for the rest of the year, Global Insight economist Patrick Newport told the Wall Street Journal. According to the census’ monthly housing survey, the estimated number of vacant homes for sale in the U.S. totaled 2.28 million in the first quarter this year, up from 2.18 million in Q1 2007. Rates were higher in principal cities (4...
More About: For Sale , Sale , Homes , Vacant , Record

O.C. homes 20% too pricey, by this math
2008-04-28 20:50:00
My latest column for The Register says this about a O.C.-to-U.S. home-price ratio, or the “Orange premium” valuation method as I call it … Look at February’s pricing math from Realtors. You can buy three typical American single-family homes or acquire one Orange County house for the small money. The last time local homes were any cheaper, based on my valuation formula, was for 2003. Still, it’s not clearly a screaming time to buy. We are still above the average Orange County premium of 2.4 U.S. homes for the cost of a local one looking back a pricing trends back to 1982. One could surmise using this metric, that local homes are still 20 percent overpriced vs. average conditions. Plus, remember those two clear “buy signals” of the mid-1980s and mid-1990s? They came when the Orange premium showed an O.C. house costing less than two typical American homes. It would require a 50 percent adjustment – any combination of national improvement or...
More About: Math , Homes

Foreclosure refugees head for O.C. apartments
2008-04-28 09:05:00
The folks at Consumer Credit Counseling Services of Orange County may be seeing the first wave of refugees from foreclosures hitting the local apartment market. Kelly Rogers, director of education at the credit counseling service, says there was a noticeable jump in people calling the office for credit counseling help early this year. Their problem: After losing their homes to foreclosure, their credit was shot and landlords were reluctant to rent to them. And it’s not just people foreclosed in O.C. looking for apartments here. “A lot of people from the Inland Empire, who work in Orange County, are coming back to Orange County to rent,” Rogers says. Rogers says she understands both sides when it comes to creditworthiness of people who’ve been foreclosed. She’s in the process of renting out her one-bedroom, one-bath Fullerton condo so she and her husband can move into a bigger place they just bought. “As landlords now, we’ve really started...
More About: Apartments , Foreclosure , Head , Refugees

O.C. building slump hits non-home projects, too
2008-04-27 20:30:00
Construction Industry Research Board, Burbank-based group tracking building permits statewide, says planned construction in Orange County of commercial, industrial and other non-residential projects in O.C. fell to the lowest level in six years.That’s one reason why the estimated value of all building permits combined (see chart above) was $663 million for January through March this year, or a little more than half the value of permits issued during the first three months of 2007. Last year’s value was the high for the decade, with permits valued at nearly $1.3 billion in the first quarter. (Note: The estimated value of residential permits was $267 million, or 47% less than Q1 2007.)The estimated value of non-residential permits (click chart at left to enlarge) was just under $396 million in the first quarter, down 50% from Q1 2007. Last year’s $775 million in first-quarter building permits was the highest in the past decade. Permits for commercial buildings showed...
More About: Building , Projects , Home , Hits , Slump

Insider Q&A hears construction rebound’s ‘likel
2008-04-26 09:00:00
Tracy MacDonald is vice president of operations at construction giant McCarthy Building Companies’ Newport Beach office. Considering the weakness in the construction business lately, we figured Tracy could give us insight to what’s up, what’s down and what may happen next … Us: What’s your take on the general state of construction jobs in O.C.? Tracy: The housing market slump has created a severe decline in construction jobs in the residential market, yet the non-residential construction industry in Orange County continues to remain robust; especially in high-growth construction categories such as hospitals, higher education and public works. These complex projects typically require expertise that is different from residential building, so the non-residential building market has only been able to absorb a limited number of construction workers from the home-building industry. The redistribution of workers from residential to non-residential construction projects has b...
More About: Construction , Insider

Is Calif. housing mess really Starbucks’ big problem?
2008-04-26 05:06:00
Builders, brokers or bankers can complain about the real estate mess. But the CEO of coffee giant Starbucks , Howard Schultz? He says: “The current economic environment is the weakest in our company’s history, marked by lower home values, and rising costs for energy, food and other products that are directly impacting our customers.” The company also noted: “Contributing to the softness in revenues for the quarter was a mid-single-digit decline in U.S. comparable store sales, driven by decreased traffic. Of note, the Calif ornia and Florida markets, where consumers have been especially impacted by the effects of the downturn in the housing market, account for 32 percent of Starbucks U.S. retail revenues and 31 percent of its U.S. company-operated retail store portfolio.” What's the real problem ... Yes, housing! Snooty service Poor products High prices Tough ...
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O.C. home listings opened ‘08 at 2.8-year supply
2008-04-26 03:01:00
The California Association of Realtors reports that Orange County’s supply of houses for sale rose in January to an all-time high of 33.4 months, equivalent to requiring 2.8 years to sell all the existing single-family homes on the market at the start of the year. February and March figures haven’t been compiled for O.C. yet, the association said. Statewide, the supply of house listings peaked in January at 16.8 months, then declined to 14.3 months in February and 11.6 months in March. The association’s inventory estimate is determined by dividing the total number of houses in the multiple listing service by total sales that month. The resulting figure is the theoretical time it would take to sell all the homes at the current sales pace. (Fresher data from show inventory improvement. CLICK HERE!) Meanwhile, last month’s median house price fell in Orange County to $591,540, down by 16.3% (the largest percentage drop in the state association’s records). ...
More About: Home , Listings , Opened , Year

O.C. builder defaults on $235 million debt
2008-04-25 23:54:00
The Bakersfield Californian reports: An Irvine developer defaulted on a $235 million loan borrowed against Bakersfield’s planned McAllister Ranch golf course community, chalking up what’s probably Kern’s largest soured debt so far in the current market downturn. A default notice recorded Tuesday in Kern County shows SunCal Cos., the company behind the 6,000-home project, owes late payments totaling more than $4 million to lender Lehman Commercial Paper Inc., a New Jersey-based financial company. The future southwest community near Panama Lane and South Allen Road is also plagued by claims from construction companies and subcontractors who say they haven’t been fully paid for work and supplies. As of Thursday, their liens and lawsuits totaled more than $14.5 million, an ongoing Californian tally found. To read more of the Californian’s tale, CLICK HERE; and to read The Register’s last take on SunCal, CLICK HERE!
More About: Debt , Million , Builder

O.C. homebuying in early April off 42.8%
2008-04-25 18:19:00
DataQuick’s first glimpse at this month’s real estate market shows April starting slow. For the 22 business days ended April 8, overall buying was weak (-42.8% vs. a year ago) and pricing was soft (-20.6% vs. a year ago.) O.C. now finds its itself with overall selling prices 22% below last June’s peak; single-family houses are off 25% from their peak (June ‘07); condos off 21% (March ‘06); and new residences off 41% (February ‘05.) To be fair, these stats measure closed deals, buying and selling decisions made a month or more ago. Do note that other stats show recent deals to buy local homes, those in escrow, are on a sharp upswing. (Read it HERE!) Here’s the latest DataQuick stats, by the slice, for the 22 business days ended April 8: Slice Price Vs. ‘07 Sales Vs. ‘07 House $553,750 -20.9% 1,151 -37.9% Condo $372,500 -19.0% 424 -47.8% New $512,250 -17.8% 166 -56.1% All $502,500 -20.6% 1,741 -42.8% • COMPARE: CLICK...
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Union Bank says recent economy ‘tougher than anticipated&#821
2008-04-25 03:58:00
Owners of Union Bank of California, with branches in California, Oregon and Washington, say … CEO Masaaki Tanaka … “We have faced a tougher economic environment than had been anticipated 90 days ago.” Chief Operating Officer Philip Flynn … “Deterioration in our homebuilder portfolio was more rapid than anticipated and we are beginning to see weakness in related sectors. … Given our current economic outlook we have adopted a guarded outlook for the remainder of the year.” Note: The bank’s residential mortgage portfolio of over $14 billion has just $18 million in foreclosure. To read more of latest earnings release, GO HERE!
More About: Economy , Recent

Real estate faces global warming test
2008-04-25 03:01:00
A USC symposium heard today that the issue of global climate will change real estate industries. The California Environmental Quality Act, or CEQA, long a target for reform by the homebuilding industry, already is being used as a tool to raise questions about how real estate developments affect global warming, speakers said at the USC Law School 2008 Symposium on Real Estate Law and Business in Los Angeles. In addition, recently adopted Assembly Bill 32, which requires California to reduce carbon emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, also likely will have impacts on the real estate industry.”There will be no construction except for green building,” said Craig Moyer of the Manatt, Phelps & Phillips law firm. There currently is a great deal of uncertainty about CEQA, the law that requires developers to create Environmental Impact Reports, said James Arnone, an attorney with Latham & Watkins in L.A. Developers are uncertain about whether to include global warming when d...
More About: Global Warming , Real Estate , Faces , Global

O.C. home market at ‘absolute worst’
2008-04-24 21:00:00
Real Estate Economics has out its latest “Composite Market Opportunity/Risk (O/R) Index” that combined ratios of local jobs-to-housing and mortgage costs-to-incomes. So what’s the index telling us? • Index currently resides below equilibrium, but the trend is toward equilibrium. Within 12 months, the index will reach, and may surpass, equilibrium. As it reaches equilibrium, increasing opportunity and market stabilization will become evident for land purchases and housing sales. • Need for an additional 7.8% drop in housing prices before equilibrium is reached in the Orange County market. Most of this over-valuation is on the resale market side of the equation, as most new home builders have already dropped prices to levels commensurate with economic support. Despite appropriately priced new homes, however, the new housing market cannot correct until the resale market falls in price and begins again to generate the equity rollover needed to support the new home ...
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O.C. real estate/finance jobs rise 1st time in 9 months
2008-04-24 09:03:00
State job stats, analyzed by your blogger, show that Orange County’s real estate and finance employers last month gained 1,000 positions from February to 232,800. It’s the first month-to-month gain in nine months. However, in the past year, O.C. real estate and finance bosses slashed a total 19,500 jobs (or 7.73%) as the housing slump and credit crunch got worse. All told, work in these heavily land-related industries is off 11% from its September ‘06 peak. Jobs in this niche have declined, on a year-over-year basis, for 16 straight months. The drop pushed real estate/finance’s share of the overall O.C. workforce to 15.5%, lowest since July ‘03 . Bosses outside real estate/finance niches cut 1,800 jobs in the year ended last month. It’s the sixth consecutive year-over-year decline outside of real estate/finance as the broader economy begins to weaken. (At look at overall O.C. hiring trends IS HERE!) Here’s a detailed look at real esta...
More About: Finance , Estate , Real Estate , Time

L.A. adopts mandatory “green building” ordinance
2008-04-24 03:00:00
Environmentally sensitive practices will be mandatory for large new developments in Los Angeles. City Council adopted rules this week that will require all major projects — at or above 50,000 square feet or 50 residential units — to comply with the U.S. Green Building Council’s general “Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design” standards, according to a city news release. Builders committing to LEED “silver” accreditation will get expedited processing by the Planning and Public Works Department. The law would also cover major renovations and low-rise developments of 50 units or more. The news release quotes Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa as saying: “Our City is growing fast and growing up, and we’re holding the private sector accountable to their commitment to be friends to our environment. Already the City of Los Angeles has the largest, most aggressive municipal green building plan of any large city in America. Now it’s time for green b...
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Reinvest home-sale proceeds in house or elsewhere?
2008-04-23 22:00:00
Housing questions were common at the call-in Tuesday night sponsored by The Register and local financial planners. Here’s one example … Q: I am selling a house now and will have about $250,000 to reinvest within 24 months. Is it best to go into another house this summer/fall, or put the money in bonds/funds/money markets, to try to make a profit before reinvesting? This is all I have and I am 51 years old, so my risk has to be small. A. First of all, you are so correct to say that you need to remain very conservative since this is all that you have. Therefore, if you do not want to purchase another house right away, putting it into money market or maybe some very short-term CD’s would be the appropriate place for this money. One thing that grabs my attention, though, is your idea of reinvesting within 24 months. That tax technique was replaced when the $250,000 for singles and double that for marrieds was implemented. That is, you may have a profit of $250,00...
More About: House , Home , Sale

O.C. homebuilding permits plunge 43%
2008-04-23 09:03:00
Construction Industry Research Board reports that homebuilding continued to decline in Orange County during the first quarter of the year. Local governments issued permits for 1,162 housing units from January through March, down 43% from the same period in 2007, according to the Burbank-based CIRB, which tracks building permits statewide. That’s the lowest number for a first quarter in at least 21 years. The 284 units in the so-called “single-family” category (which includes detached houses and side-by-side condos and townhomes) also fell to the lowest level of any first quarter in at least 21 years. The 878 units in the “multi-family” category (apartments and multi-story condos) was the lowest number since 2002. (more…)
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How housing slump bites newspaper profits
2008-04-23 03:00:00
What publisher Gannett told Wall Street in a recent conference call … Advertising revenues … overall for the segment were down 10.2% for the quarter. In the U.S., total ad revenues were about 11% lower. Our operations in the U.K. faired better, although they did not escape the softening economy, particularly in real estate. Ad revenues at Newsquest in pounds were down about 7%. Breaking this down, let me begin with retail which declined about 8% in the quarter. Once again our U.S. community publishing properties were more unfavorably impacted relative to the U.K. Categories like furniture and home improvement in the U.S. were impacted by the real estate slowdown, but financial and telecom also were softer. Department stores, our largest retail category, were down in the mid-single-digits. Classified advertising continued to soften due to the economic slowdown, particularly for those properties in real estate driven markets. For U.S. community publishing, real estate a...
More About: Housing , Profits , Newspaper , Slump

Calif. home prices down 22.48%, nation’s worst
2008-04-22 20:55:00
First American LoanPerformance says Calif ornia home prices were falling at a 22.48% annual pace in late March, again, worst in the nation. Next in this dubious line was Florida (-17.41%), then Nevada (-16.67%), Arizona (-16.32%), and Ohio (-10.78%.) California has been at the bottom of this national ranking since May. (What’s behind the price slump? Golden State foreclosures are soaring. READ HERE!) The nation’s top performer was Utah, with 4.9% annualized gains, the second consecutive month that state’s taken the crown. (As an aside, with an eye to today’s Democratic primary: Pennsylvania home prices are falling at 6.46%, the nation’s 36th ranked market by this FALP math. In March 2007, Pennsylvania homes were appreciating at a 1.8% pace.) FALP says … “28 states now show year-over-year real estate declines … However, on a quarter-over-quarter basis, there are now 36 states with decreasing property values.” To read more, CLICK ...
More About: Home , Nation , Prices

Anaheim Hills home fetches near-record $6.3 million
2008-04-22 09:00:00
A seven-bedroom, eight-bathroom mansion — plus guest quarters, a pool, a cabana with a frescoed ceiling, a tennis court, and two acres of landscaped gardens — in Anaheim Hills (pictured on right) sold earlier this month in an all-cash deal for $6.3 million after a one-week escrow. “This home in Newport Coast would probably be around $25 million — at least,” listing agent Carole Geronsin said of the property. Geronsin said this Anaheim Hills home, located on Copa de Oro, had been on the market for a year, most recently with range pricing (meaning it was listed to sell within a given range, rather than for a single list price). It ended up selling above the intended asking price after getting multiple offers, she said. The next closest selling price in Anaheim Hills was another Copa de Oro home that sold for $5.65 million two or three years ago. As with other properties in the trophy home market, the Copa de Oro sale likely had little to do with what&rsqu...
More About: Home , Record , Million

Hong Kong has world’s priciest rents; LA’s 31st
2008-04-22 03:04:00
Annual survey of global rents by ECA International, corporate human resources consultants, finds that Hong Kong ’s still the priciest big city on the planet to rent a typical three-bedroom apartment. Cost, in U.S. do9llars by ECA’s math? $9,734 a month! Compare that to a global big-city average of $2,950. Six of the top 10 priciest locales were in Asia — Hong Kong plus Tokyo (4th), Mumbai (6th), Seoul (7th), Singapore (9th) and Ho Chi Minh City (10th.) Moscow (2nd), New York (3rd), London (5th), and Caracas (8th) filled out the top 10 of the 92-city study of rents, in U.S. dollars, as of September ‘07. Read more HERE! ECA doesn’t track O.C. rents. (Latest average local rent, per Real Facts, was $1,696. Don’t know if that’s comparable to ECA’s numbers, though!) But ECA found L.A. rents rank 31st on the globe, down from No. 29 the previous year. San Francisco was 23rd; San Diego was 66th. The cheapest on this list? Karachi in Pakistan.
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Another Pimco trader sells O.C. home to rent
2008-04-21 22:23:00
BusinessWeek reports in yet another unflattering portrait of the sagging O.C. economy by a national news organization this gem … Scott Simon, who heads housing industry analysis at Newport Beach-based money management firm Pimco, recently sold his home with a view of the ocean in nearby Laguna Niguel. He was surprised that the property got several offers and went for close to his asking price, to a European buyer. “Good properties are still trading at pretty good prices,” he says. “You come apart from the worst first.” Still, Simon says he’s renting for now. It’s cheaper than owning, and he thinks lower prices lie ahead, particularly if government support for the housing market wanes. Housing, he says, is “the single most important thing in the economy right now.” Fellow Pimco bond trader Mark Kiesel grabbed a few media notices in ‘06 when he sold his O.C. home and very publicly noted it as a trade against local home pric...
More About: Home , Rent

O.C. gets $800,000 lesson in credit crunch
2008-04-21 22:21:00
Your blogger’s most recent Register column says … Orange County has borrowed $123 million in so-called “Teeter bonds” that let government, in essence, get cash from some unpaid, local property taxes. These “variable-rate notes” carry interest charges that can change each week. But the county, in theory, should pay a relatively low rate because they bought insurance from Ambac, one of several bond insurers that ran into financial turmoil thanks to their own bad bets on risky bonds. Insurers like Ambac rent out their own gold-plated, Triple-A credit score. But when just one credit rater marked down Ambac to “AA” in January, havoc broke out. It wasn’t that Ambac was likely to fail, though, some harsh critics think some bond insurers’ trouble is deeper than has been revealed. This rate surge appears to be mainly a case where typical buyers of insured bonds – ultra-risk-averse traders, by nature — fled at the first whif...
More About: Credit , Lesson , Crunch

Demand for O.C. homes up 23% in a year
2008-04-21 09:01:00
The math of Steve Thomas at Re/Max Real Estate Services in Aliso Viejo says demand for O.C. housing is growing. As of last Thursday, 2,374 existing homes and condos had been placed into escrow in the past 30 days, a 23% gain vs. a year ago. It’s a strong hint that when these deals-in-the-works are completed in the next two months, we’ll see a mathematical end of the county’s home-buying losing slump. By DataQuick’s tracking of closed deals, it’s a losing streak that’s run 30 months back to September 2005. Also, Thomas calculates a “market time” benchmark tracking how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS for-sale listings at the current pace of pending deals being made. By this logic, it would take 6.55 months for buyers to gobble up all homes for sale at the current pace vs. 6.77 months two weeks earlier and below 7.75 months a year ago. Thomas notes: “Our agents in the trenches are una...
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