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O.C. seen facing ‘exodus’ of ballooning seniors
2008-05-02 20:07:00
Orange County grand jury says that by the year 2030, the county’s population of those over 65 will have doubled. Thus, demand for affordable housing will soar and the county may … “face an exodus of one of its largest population segments, unless plans for accommodating this growth are undertaken now.” Read more HERE!
More About: Seniors , Exodus , Facing

Builders’ home pricing at ‘02 levels in mid-April
2008-05-02 15:42:00
Fresh DataQuick stats show how hard O.C. developers are working to sell homes: Median selling prices for the 22 business days ended April 14 of $499,500 is 42% below the new home market’s 2005 peak. If such pricing holds for the entire month, it would mark the second cheapest builder pricing since June 2002; and only the second time under a half-million bucks since then. (Prices briefly dipped to $469,000 in January ‘06.) Sadly, builders’ steep price cuts were seemingly not enough: Only 156 new homes sold, a stunning 60.5% below a year ago. The rest of the O.C. market in the same period fared not much better, with weak sales and soft pricing. Here’s how it broke out by key slice: Slice Price Vs. ‘07 Sales Vs. ‘07 House $565,000 -20.5% 1,220 -35.0% Condo $374,000 -18.7% 450 -46.7% New $499,500 -21.2% 156 -60.5% All $505,000 -19.8% 1,826 -41.4%
More About: Home , Builders

Transit and walkable spaces seen as top O.C. needs
2008-05-02 03:01:00
Two speakers from the American Planning Association said redeveloping older shopping centers and more innovative bus lines may be keys to turning Orange County into a more livable, less car-dependent place. The APA, which is holding its national conference this week in Las Vegas, offered up two Bay Area planning consultants who spoke on ways to breathe new life into conventional suburbs. The first, Stephen Coyle, principal for the “green urbanist” firm, Town Green of Oakland, said communities need to follow what he called the “Five R’s” for suburban redesign: Recompact, increasing intensity of uses, integrating housing and jobs in one area; Reconnect, designing roads and pathways for increased mobility; Recode, updating zoning for mixed use; Redesign, creating public spaces, and Recolor green, making suburbs less reliant on non-renewable resources. Dena Belzer, president of the Berkeley-based planning and consulting firm, Strategic Economics, noted th...
More About: Spaces , Transit

The rich pass on real estate. A good call?
2008-05-01 21:05:00
The Luxury Institute says rich people are finding other places to put their money this year besides real estate. An Institute survey of 800 “wealthy” people — defined as earning at least $150,000 — showed only 24% plan on buying real estate this year. The top reasons they are not buying: Real estate decline has not hit bottom: 27% Want to keep my investments liquid: 25% Unsure about direction of the economy: 24% Best reason to wait to buy? No bottom yet Stay liquid Uncertain economy View Results … Also, the poll found that wealthy consumers earning $300,000 or more, or with a net worth of $5 million or greater, were significantly more likely to consider buying additional real estate in 2008. (more…)
More About: Estate , Rich , Real Estate , Call

Bad O.C. economy hits 1-bedroom apartments
2008-05-01 14:01:00
M/PF YieldStar found new evidence of a softening economy in O.C. — one-bedroom apartments were slower to rent in the first quarter while two- and three-bedroom units were in higher demand. That’s a switch from last year when one-bedrooms were the hardest to find. At the end of March, 4.6% of one-bedrooms were vacant, while the vacancy rate in two-bedrooms was 4.4% and three-bedrooms 3.5%. Vacancies countywide were at 4.4%. (That’s still better than the nation as a whole, which had a 6% vacancy rate.) Greg Willett, vice president of research and analysis at Texas-based M/PF YieldStar, notes that when times get tough, people double up with roommates. Here’s how his reports sees it: “Orange County actually is one of the few metros across the country showing those occupancy patterns that normally come with recession. In other spots, larger apartments with two or more bedrooms are struggling just as much as smaller apartments, since those larger units are ...
More About: Economy , Apartments , Bedroom , Hits

O.C. United Way lowers goal for real estate donations
2008-05-01 07:31:00
Orange County United Way was close to its fund-raising goal of $500,000 at Wednesday’s annual Real Estate and Building luncheon, one of the largest fund-raising events for the charity umbrella organization. But it was still a decline from last year, when real estate and building industry donors ponied up $560,000. Before Wednesday’s lunch at the Hyatt Irvine, the industry group had amassed payments and pledges totaling $498,000, said Kristin Bush. And that was before guests had filled out pledge cards left at each table. “It’s really good considering what’s going on,” Bush said of the economy. The keynote speaker was UCLA football coach Rick Neuheisel, who helped attract a big turnout to the ninth-annual luncheon, despite industry doldrums. “We’ve been through a couple of downturns in our nine years and we’ll get through this one,” said Ranney Draper, chairman of Spring Creek Investors LLC, a real estate equity firm based i...
More About: Real Estate , Goal

Steep home-price dip doesn’t mean quick turnaround
2008-05-01 01:00:00
Wells Fargo economist Michael J. Swanson says the good news about the current housing downturn is that the sharper home values fall below their economic value, the faster they will recover.“The real demand for housing comes from household formation and personal income growth,” says Swanson in his latest Financial Market Strategies report. (CLICK HERE for the report.) “Currently, personal income growth has slowed, but household formation continues unabated. Eventually, the fundamental drivers of growth will overcome the downward momentum of the housing market. The question of course involves when.”Swanson doesn’t have that in his crystal ball. “Just as many people pointed out that the housing market was overvalued in 2005 only to see it rise further,” he says. “Pointing out that housing values have overcorrected to the downside doesn’t mean that the market won’t go down even further on negative sentiment and credit tightness. A ...
More About: Home , Quick , Price

The Fed drops key rate a quarter point
2008-04-30 20:34:00
The Federal Reserve reduced its key short-term interest rate today by a quarter point, dropping it to 2%. That was the lowest it’s been since November 2004 and is part of a effort begun last fall to jumpstart the flagging U.S. economy In addition to the 0.25% cut in the overnight rate Fed banks charge each other, the Fed’s Open Market Committee also reduced by a quarter point the “discount rate” it charges banks. The discount rate is now 2.25%. Board members expressed continued concern about the impact of the housing market and tight crunch on the economy: “Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and tight credit conditions and the deepening housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.” CLICK HERE for the full statement. For earlier stories on the Fed: Pimco’s Gross says slash mortgage balances Fed says West’s housing ‘exceptionally weak’ Fed aside, ‘08 housing rebound ‘w...
More About: Point , Rate , Quarter

Industrial property still hot in O.C.
2008-04-30 09:05:00
Grubb & Ellis says the place to be in O.C. real estate during the first quarter was in warehouses and other industrial space. Industrial vacancies here remained tight at 4.3% during the first quarter, just slightly above the 4% in the fourth quarter of 2007. That compares to the office market, which saw the vacancy rate jump to 14.9%. “The overall climate throughout the market place is one of cautious optimism, where solid product still demands a high price and where ‘all cash’ buyers still want to own property in this highly desirable market,” says Grubb in its latest report on industrial market trends in O.C. (CLICK HERE to see the report.) The airport area accounted for the majority of the sales and leasing activity in industrial space while North County had the lowest vacancy rate, at 3.3%. Grubb says the economic slowdown could even work to the benefit of the industrial market: “If the economy remains slow as expected over the next few quart...
More About: Property

Building slump zaps drywall prices 36%
2008-04-30 04:02:00
Sheetrock-brand wallboard maker USG says its average North America selling price for its signature product was $104.41 per thousand square feet in the first quarter, down 36% from $164.12 in the year ago period. It’s just another building supply smacked. Have you seen what’s happened to lumber prices? Still, USG was relatively upbeat, noting a recent price hike but saying … “The housing market continues to be very challenging. New residential construction has shown signs of stabilizing at or around the current level, which is down about 50 percent from the peak in 2005. The market is likely to remain weak into 2009 as the inventory of unsold homes remains at historically high levels. The corporation expects declines in residential repair and remodeling expenditures and non-residential construction activity. The corporation has aggressively reduced overhead costs, cut discretionary spending and reduced staffing to mitigate the impact of weak market conditions...
More About: Building , Slump , Prices

Renters the winners in 2007 O.C. office market
2008-04-29 20:59:00
Studley Inc. reports tenants in the most-prized O.C. office space saw their overall cost of renting decline 6.8% last year. It was the first time in five years that total occupancy costs were down for tenants in top-tier, Class A buildings, based on Studley’s take on the market. That meant it was a tough year for building owners, who saw their cash flow drop 11.86% after accounting for tenant concessions and expenses, Studley says.Local office landlords haven’t seen a decline since 2002.Studley said as demand slows, the value of concession packages will increase this year. The company’s outlook: “Due to the slowdown in the housing market and its effect on mortgage-related companies, the Orange County market faces implied challenges in 2008.” The O.C. numbers were part of the annual Studley Effective Rent Index, which attempts to determine the true cost of occupancy rather than the average asking rent. Studley is a commercial leasing services compan...
More About: Office , Market , Winners

LA/OC home prices fall 19.4% in Feb.
2008-04-29 15:58:00
S&P/Case-Shiller indexes show LA/OC home prices off 19.4% in the year ended in February, the largest year-over-year drop in the index’s 21-year database and the fourth consecutive month to see record declines. (To see how that compares among the seven indexes tracked by this blog, CLICK HERE.) February marked the 13th consecutive month the S&P indexes found a year-over-year decline in local home values. February’s price was down 21.6% from the peak price reached in September 2006. During the housing slump of the 1990s, prices fell 27% from the peak to bottom. S&P’s nationwide composite index for February for 20 major cities saw prices down 12.7%. The U.S. index now sits 14.8% below its July 2006 peak. “There is no sign of a bottom in the numbers,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “Prices of single family homes continue to drop across the nation. All 20 metro areas were in the red for the Februa...
More About: Home , Fall

Maguire plan to sell all but O.C. towers rejected
2008-04-29 06:01:00
Maguire Properties rejected its chairman’s complex offer to buy 75% of the company’s stock using proceeds from the sale of nearly all of the investment trust’s assets outside of Orange County, according to a company press release. Robert Maguire offered $21 a share for the Real Estate Investment Trust, also known as a REIT. He would sell assets in Los Angeles, San Diego and perhaps Denver to pay stockholders for their shares. “The expression of interest is subject to numerous, substantial contingencies and questions,” the company’s statement said. In the view of a special committee of independent directors, “the expression of interest (is) not currently actionable.” The firm owns about 13 Orange County office properties acquired 14 months ago from Blackstone Group, plus three other high-profile sites in Irvine and Costa Mesa that it previously bought. It also is the largest office landlord in downtown Los Angeles. According to Reuters,...
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Vacant homes for sale hit record level
2008-04-29 03:01:00
The U.S. Census Bureau reports today that the rate of vacant homes for sale rose to 2.9% of non-rental U.S. homes during the first quarter of the year, the highest level in records dating back at least 40 years. That’s up from 2.8% in the first and fourth quarters of 2007. The January-to-March 2008 rate was even higher for the West: 4.3 percent of U.S. homes were vacant and up for sale, according to the census press release. The vacancy rate is deemed a key indicator of the nation’s housing supply. The fact that there were 1 million more vacant homes on the market in the first quarter is seen as a sign that home prices will continue falling for the rest of the year, Global Insight economist Patrick Newport told the Wall Street Journal. According to the census’ monthly housing survey, the estimated number of vacant homes for sale in the U.S. totaled 2.28 million in the first quarter this year, up from 2.18 million in Q1 2007. Rates were higher in principal cities (4...
More About: For Sale , Sale , Homes , Vacant , Record

O.C. homes 20% too pricey, by this math
2008-04-28 20:50:00
My latest column for The Register says this about a O.C.-to-U.S. home-price ratio, or the “Orange premium” valuation method as I call it … Look at February’s pricing math from Realtors. You can buy three typical American single-family homes or acquire one Orange County house for the small money. The last time local homes were any cheaper, based on my valuation formula, was for 2003. Still, it’s not clearly a screaming time to buy. We are still above the average Orange County premium of 2.4 U.S. homes for the cost of a local one looking back a pricing trends back to 1982. One could surmise using this metric, that local homes are still 20 percent overpriced vs. average conditions. Plus, remember those two clear “buy signals” of the mid-1980s and mid-1990s? They came when the Orange premium showed an O.C. house costing less than two typical American homes. It would require a 50 percent adjustment – any combination of national improvement or...
More About: Math , Homes

Foreclosure refugees head for O.C. apartments
2008-04-28 09:05:00
The folks at Consumer Credit Counseling Services of Orange County may be seeing the first wave of refugees from foreclosures hitting the local apartment market. Kelly Rogers, director of education at the credit counseling service, says there was a noticeable jump in people calling the office for credit counseling help early this year. Their problem: After losing their homes to foreclosure, their credit was shot and landlords were reluctant to rent to them. And it’s not just people foreclosed in O.C. looking for apartments here. “A lot of people from the Inland Empire, who work in Orange County, are coming back to Orange County to rent,” Rogers says. Rogers says she understands both sides when it comes to creditworthiness of people who’ve been foreclosed. She’s in the process of renting out her one-bedroom, one-bath Fullerton condo so she and her husband can move into a bigger place they just bought. “As landlords now, we’ve really started...
More About: Apartments , Foreclosure , Head , Refugees

O.C. building slump hits non-home projects, too
2008-04-27 20:30:00
Construction Industry Research Board, Burbank-based group tracking building permits statewide, says planned construction in Orange County of commercial, industrial and other non-residential projects in O.C. fell to the lowest level in six years.That’s one reason why the estimated value of all building permits combined (see chart above) was $663 million for January through March this year, or a little more than half the value of permits issued during the first three months of 2007. Last year’s value was the high for the decade, with permits valued at nearly $1.3 billion in the first quarter. (Note: The estimated value of residential permits was $267 million, or 47% less than Q1 2007.)The estimated value of non-residential permits (click chart at left to enlarge) was just under $396 million in the first quarter, down 50% from Q1 2007. Last year’s $775 million in first-quarter building permits was the highest in the past decade. Permits for commercial buildings showed...
More About: Building , Projects , Home , Hits , Slump

Insider Q&A hears construction rebound’s ‘likel
2008-04-26 09:00:00
Tracy MacDonald is vice president of operations at construction giant McCarthy Building Companies’ Newport Beach office. Considering the weakness in the construction business lately, we figured Tracy could give us insight to what’s up, what’s down and what may happen next … Us: What’s your take on the general state of construction jobs in O.C.? Tracy: The housing market slump has created a severe decline in construction jobs in the residential market, yet the non-residential construction industry in Orange County continues to remain robust; especially in high-growth construction categories such as hospitals, higher education and public works. These complex projects typically require expertise that is different from residential building, so the non-residential building market has only been able to absorb a limited number of construction workers from the home-building industry. The redistribution of workers from residential to non-residential construction projects has b...
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Is Calif. housing mess really Starbucks’ big problem?
2008-04-26 05:06:00
Builders, brokers or bankers can complain about the real estate mess. But the CEO of coffee giant Starbucks , Howard Schultz? He says: “The current economic environment is the weakest in our company’s history, marked by lower home values, and rising costs for energy, food and other products that are directly impacting our customers.” The company also noted: “Contributing to the softness in revenues for the quarter was a mid-single-digit decline in U.S. comparable store sales, driven by decreased traffic. Of note, the Calif ornia and Florida markets, where consumers have been especially impacted by the effects of the downturn in the housing market, account for 32 percent of Starbucks U.S. retail revenues and 31 percent of its U.S. company-operated retail store portfolio.” What's the real problem ... Yes, housing! Snooty service Poor products High prices Tough ...
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O.C. home listings opened ‘08 at 2.8-year supply
2008-04-26 03:01:00
The California Association of Realtors reports that Orange County’s supply of houses for sale rose in January to an all-time high of 33.4 months, equivalent to requiring 2.8 years to sell all the existing single-family homes on the market at the start of the year. February and March figures haven’t been compiled for O.C. yet, the association said. Statewide, the supply of house listings peaked in January at 16.8 months, then declined to 14.3 months in February and 11.6 months in March. The association’s inventory estimate is determined by dividing the total number of houses in the multiple listing service by total sales that month. The resulting figure is the theoretical time it would take to sell all the homes at the current sales pace. (Fresher data from show inventory improvement. CLICK HERE!) Meanwhile, last month’s median house price fell in Orange County to $591,540, down by 16.3% (the largest percentage drop in the state association’s records). ...
More About: Home , Listings , Opened , Year

O.C. builder defaults on $235 million debt
2008-04-25 23:54:00
The Bakersfield Californian reports: An Irvine developer defaulted on a $235 million loan borrowed against Bakersfield’s planned McAllister Ranch golf course community, chalking up what’s probably Kern’s largest soured debt so far in the current market downturn. A default notice recorded Tuesday in Kern County shows SunCal Cos., the company behind the 6,000-home project, owes late payments totaling more than $4 million to lender Lehman Commercial Paper Inc., a New Jersey-based financial company. The future southwest community near Panama Lane and South Allen Road is also plagued by claims from construction companies and subcontractors who say they haven’t been fully paid for work and supplies. As of Thursday, their liens and lawsuits totaled more than $14.5 million, an ongoing Californian tally found. To read more of the Californian’s tale, CLICK HERE; and to read The Register’s last take on SunCal, CLICK HERE!
More About: Debt , Million , Builder

O.C. homebuying in early April off 42.8%
2008-04-25 18:19:00
DataQuick’s first glimpse at this month’s real estate market shows April starting slow. For the 22 business days ended April 8, overall buying was weak (-42.8% vs. a year ago) and pricing was soft (-20.6% vs. a year ago.) O.C. now finds its itself with overall selling prices 22% below last June’s peak; single-family houses are off 25% from their peak (June ‘07); condos off 21% (March ‘06); and new residences off 41% (February ‘05.) To be fair, these stats measure closed deals, buying and selling decisions made a month or more ago. Do note that other stats show recent deals to buy local homes, those in escrow, are on a sharp upswing. (Read it HERE!) Here’s the latest DataQuick stats, by the slice, for the 22 business days ended April 8: Slice Price Vs. ‘07 Sales Vs. ‘07 House $553,750 -20.9% 1,151 -37.9% Condo $372,500 -19.0% 424 -47.8% New $512,250 -17.8% 166 -56.1% All $502,500 -20.6% 1,741 -42.8% • COMPARE: CLICK...
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Union Bank says recent economy ‘tougher than anticipated&#821
2008-04-25 03:58:00
Owners of Union Bank of California, with branches in California, Oregon and Washington, say … CEO Masaaki Tanaka … “We have faced a tougher economic environment than had been anticipated 90 days ago.” Chief Operating Officer Philip Flynn … “Deterioration in our homebuilder portfolio was more rapid than anticipated and we are beginning to see weakness in related sectors. … Given our current economic outlook we have adopted a guarded outlook for the remainder of the year.” Note: The bank’s residential mortgage portfolio of over $14 billion has just $18 million in foreclosure. To read more of latest earnings release, GO HERE!
More About: Economy , Recent

Real estate faces global warming test
2008-04-25 03:01:00
A USC symposium heard today that the issue of global climate will change real estate industries. The California Environmental Quality Act, or CEQA, long a target for reform by the homebuilding industry, already is being used as a tool to raise questions about how real estate developments affect global warming, speakers said at the USC Law School 2008 Symposium on Real Estate Law and Business in Los Angeles. In addition, recently adopted Assembly Bill 32, which requires California to reduce carbon emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, also likely will have impacts on the real estate industry.”There will be no construction except for green building,” said Craig Moyer of the Manatt, Phelps & Phillips law firm. There currently is a great deal of uncertainty about CEQA, the law that requires developers to create Environmental Impact Reports, said James Arnone, an attorney with Latham & Watkins in L.A. Developers are uncertain about whether to include global warming when d...
More About: Global Warming , Real Estate , Faces , Global

O.C. home market at ‘absolute worst’
2008-04-24 21:00:00
Real Estate Economics has out its latest “Composite Market Opportunity/Risk (O/R) Index” that combined ratios of local jobs-to-housing and mortgage costs-to-incomes. So what’s the index telling us? • Index currently resides below equilibrium, but the trend is toward equilibrium. Within 12 months, the index will reach, and may surpass, equilibrium. As it reaches equilibrium, increasing opportunity and market stabilization will become evident for land purchases and housing sales. • Need for an additional 7.8% drop in housing prices before equilibrium is reached in the Orange County market. Most of this over-valuation is on the resale market side of the equation, as most new home builders have already dropped prices to levels commensurate with economic support. Despite appropriately priced new homes, however, the new housing market cannot correct until the resale market falls in price and begins again to generate the equity rollover needed to support the new home ...
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O.C. real estate/finance jobs rise 1st time in 9 months
2008-04-24 09:03:00
State job stats, analyzed by your blogger, show that Orange County’s real estate and finance employers last month gained 1,000 positions from February to 232,800. It’s the first month-to-month gain in nine months. However, in the past year, O.C. real estate and finance bosses slashed a total 19,500 jobs (or 7.73%) as the housing slump and credit crunch got worse. All told, work in these heavily land-related industries is off 11% from its September ‘06 peak. Jobs in this niche have declined, on a year-over-year basis, for 16 straight months. The drop pushed real estate/finance’s share of the overall O.C. workforce to 15.5%, lowest since July ‘03 . Bosses outside real estate/finance niches cut 1,800 jobs in the year ended last month. It’s the sixth consecutive year-over-year decline outside of real estate/finance as the broader economy begins to weaken. (At look at overall O.C. hiring trends IS HERE!) Here’s a detailed look at real esta...
More About: Finance , Estate , Real Estate , Time

L.A. adopts mandatory “green building” ordinance
2008-04-24 03:00:00
Environmentally sensitive practices will be mandatory for large new developments in Los Angeles. City Council adopted rules this week that will require all major projects — at or above 50,000 square feet or 50 residential units — to comply with the U.S. Green Building Council’s general “Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design” standards, according to a city news release. Builders committing to LEED “silver” accreditation will get expedited processing by the Planning and Public Works Department. The law would also cover major renovations and low-rise developments of 50 units or more. The news release quotes Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa as saying: “Our City is growing fast and growing up, and we’re holding the private sector accountable to their commitment to be friends to our environment. Already the City of Los Angeles has the largest, most aggressive municipal green building plan of any large city in America. Now it’s time for green b...
More About: Green Building

Reinvest home-sale proceeds in house or elsewhere?
2008-04-23 22:00:00
Housing questions were common at the call-in Tuesday night sponsored by The Register and local financial planners. Here’s one example … Q: I am selling a house now and will have about $250,000 to reinvest within 24 months. Is it best to go into another house this summer/fall, or put the money in bonds/funds/money markets, to try to make a profit before reinvesting? This is all I have and I am 51 years old, so my risk has to be small. A. First of all, you are so correct to say that you need to remain very conservative since this is all that you have. Therefore, if you do not want to purchase another house right away, putting it into money market or maybe some very short-term CD’s would be the appropriate place for this money. One thing that grabs my attention, though, is your idea of reinvesting within 24 months. That tax technique was replaced when the $250,000 for singles and double that for marrieds was implemented. That is, you may have a profit of $250,00...
More About: House , Home , Sale

O.C. homebuilding permits plunge 43%
2008-04-23 09:03:00
Construction Industry Research Board reports that homebuilding continued to decline in Orange County during the first quarter of the year. Local governments issued permits for 1,162 housing units from January through March, down 43% from the same period in 2007, according to the Burbank-based CIRB, which tracks building permits statewide. That’s the lowest number for a first quarter in at least 21 years. The 284 units in the so-called “single-family” category (which includes detached houses and side-by-side condos and townhomes) also fell to the lowest level of any first quarter in at least 21 years. The 878 units in the “multi-family” category (apartments and multi-story condos) was the lowest number since 2002. (more…)
More About: Permits

How housing slump bites newspaper profits
2008-04-23 03:00:00
What publisher Gannett told Wall Street in a recent conference call … Advertising revenues … overall for the segment were down 10.2% for the quarter. In the U.S., total ad revenues were about 11% lower. Our operations in the U.K. faired better, although they did not escape the softening economy, particularly in real estate. Ad revenues at Newsquest in pounds were down about 7%. Breaking this down, let me begin with retail which declined about 8% in the quarter. Once again our U.S. community publishing properties were more unfavorably impacted relative to the U.K. Categories like furniture and home improvement in the U.S. were impacted by the real estate slowdown, but financial and telecom also were softer. Department stores, our largest retail category, were down in the mid-single-digits. Classified advertising continued to soften due to the economic slowdown, particularly for those properties in real estate driven markets. For U.S. community publishing, real estate a...
More About: Housing , Profits , Newspaper , Slump