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The economy - false or real optimism?
2008-05-03 13:37:00
Two financial luminaries' views on the credit crisis:Buffett says credit crisis ebbs for Wall Street firms James Dimon, JP Morgan, says no near end to financial crisis And on the economy: From Forbes Rich Karlgaard (admittedly their tech blogger) Only a month ago, such sages as George Soros and Alan Greenspan were shouting from bullhorns that the 2008 global financial mess was the worst since World War II. Only a month ago, the only argument among nearly all journalists, pundits and leftwing politicians was whether the U.S. economy would stop at a recession or tumble all the way down the tubes to a 1930s-style depression. Very few challenged the recession presumption. Now, if your definition of a recession is the traditional one of two consecutive quarters of negative growth, then those very few contrarians are correct. There is no possibility now--zero, nada, zip--that the U.S. will suffer two consecutive quarters of negative growth in 2008. Points from the gloo...
More About: Economy , Real , Optimism

Real estate search technology is overrated
2008-05-02 09:04:00
The real estate industry is the search technologists' siren's song.  They find a better way to search and look for applications to industry verticals. They see real estate, with its complex data parameters and believe that any iteration that makes search a little bit easier will become the consumer Holy Grail. In addition, they perceive the industry as a cash cow with agents and lenders, etc. making commissions of 4 to 5 digit fees, and believe it's more lucrative to capture a small % of these huge fees than to apply search to lower fee capture products like dating or retail.Of course, the reality is simplifying search doesn't matter to the consumer. They want data credibility...  consumers eventually figure out that they need to visit various sites to cobble together what they perceive as comprehensive listings data (remember, if you're a real estate professional who read blogs, you know MLS services, Trulia and Zillow paint partial pictures, but the consumer doesn'...
More About: Technology , Estate , Real Estate , Search , Real

HomeGain blog network
2008-04-30 19:09:00
HomeGain continues to inch closer to Web 2.0 with its new blog network for its real estate clients. And with it, HomeGain can now call itself the one stop shop Lead Generation portal... with a business model. In order to blog on HomeGain, an agent registers for the Source4Sellers product which provides them sponsored visibility to consumer traffic by zip code. I registered and noted the pricing for San Francisco zip codes 94109 (lower Pacific Heights) and 94123 (tony Pacific Heights were $99.95 and $159.95 per month, respectively. (Good pricing transparency). The concept behind Source4Sellers and the blog network is to show HomeGain clients that blogging supplements the lead generation of zip code sponsorship. It's an enticing product for a newbie blogging agent who wants to be assured of some sort of active lead generation via the sponsorship while concurrently "trying out" blogging. I applaud GM Louis' strategy to pull in new customers with an evolving smorgasboard of lead gener...
More About: Blogging , Network , Blog

Grand Theft Auto IV - film maker meets gamer
2008-04-29 12:39:00
I love films, I was in the business for a few years... Martin Scorcese is one of my favorite directors... Like most film buffs, I've been waiting decades for an immersive game-as-movie experience. The common thread to all these blockbuster reviews for Grand Theft Auto IV - they all invoke the magical name Scorcese when comparing the game experience:Much more than a game, Grand Theft Auto IV is a five-star interactive drama GameSpy review Rockstar's most important game ever Four minute gameplay chase video - comment: is this a Scorcese game?
More About: Technology , Film , Gamer , Maker

Google Page Rank update
2008-04-29 00:42:00
Some time this Monday evening Google updated its page ranks. None of the tech-dominated Twittersphere I follow mentioned it. A Technorati search for "page rank" at 10:30pdt, only Dave Smith (h/t) and Greg Swann noticed it, no one else, even the SEO guys. It was a non-event, another indication of the SEO community's lack of interest in what once was an awaited online event.
More About: Technology , Events , Page Rank , Page

How banks can charge higher loan rates despite Fed rate cuts
2008-04-28 03:08:00
Here is the simplistic reasoning why banks are charging higher loan rates, despite Fed rate cuts (explained well by Jonathan Miller / Matrix) Investors of any kind of mortgage backed securities have vanished. Therefore, banks, as lenders, can no longer offload their mortgages to investors like Bear Stearns or Lehman Bros. Now banks are forced to hold the loans they make. This is why banks are recapitalizing, and still need $100 billion more (according to UBS analyst) to offset the losses from write-downs on bad loans, so they can make more loans. Since banks are assuming risk for the loans they make, they charge higher rates for these loans. Greater risk, greater return (in business school, this is called CAPM) Many lenders have disappeared, leaving little competition. Since banks don't have the capital to make loans (see #4 above), they make loans only to their best credit worthy customers With loans hard to get (#6 & #7), banks can now charge higher rates for bigger margin...
More About: Economy , Banks , Loan , Charge , Mortgages

Markets stabilizing? Housing is last
2008-04-27 14:49:00
Following up on last Thursday's development re: European Central Bank moves supporting the US dollar, Barrons has also chimed in on the end of the dollar's slide.This spring's dollar slide, coincident with global inflation of food and oil prices (very few predicted the $120/barrel Brent crude) impacted consumer sentiment as much as the other crises: credit crunch, recession, etc.And with the consumer feeling poorer, the housing markets certainly aren't going anywhere. In this past week, media voices are calling a bottom to some of these crises. Stock markets are stabilizing pending any further evidence of a recession next week. Bond prices fall as investors sense credit crisis easing. The housing markets will only stabilize when the consumer feels comfortable; it's the market that is positioned last in line as other markets begin to recover.
More About: Economy , Markets , Housing

Chat client proliferation
2008-04-26 00:38:00
Along with text messaging, chat has become a ubiquitous Web 2.0 application. I list the various ways you can reach me: Application Chat client Who I chat with Email GmailGtalk Gmail users, fave 5VOIP Skype Skype chat Skype users, most used chat clientWeb/blog Chat box Gtalk (Google created a  smaller, more elegant Meebo /Plugoo widget)Usually people I don't knowSocial network Facebook Facebook chatFacebook network, not used. In fact, I think it's the chat client that will break the chat camel's backMicro-bloggingTwitterTwitter DM (direct msg)The usual Twitter suspects everybody knows What's surprising is the contacts beeping me via chat is as natural as taking/not taking a phone call. Chat is still asynchronous communication that works flexibly into busy schedules.
More About: Proliferation , Client

ECB cooperation to maintain dollar's strength
2008-04-24 13:35:00
The European Central Bank and its president Jean-Claude Trichet have been posturing with the mission to fight inflation by maintaining and not dropping ECB interest rates relative to the recent sharp drops by the Fed. It has contributed to a weakening dollar. Food price and oil price inflation, exacerbated by the weak dollar, have become high profile topics that make the ECB stance look unkind. Once the dollar's slide reached $160 per euro, the ECB shifted posture today: "We're concerned about the possible implications for financial and macroeconomic stability," Trichet told reporters, according to Dow Jones Newswires. He added that it's "very important" that U.S. authorities have said a strong dollar is in the country's own interest.The remarks came after the euro hit a record high against the dollar Tuesday of $1.6020. "Is it a coincidence that the change in tone came after the euro breached $1.60, and that so many ECB members are taking a less hawkish tone? W...
More About: Economy , Cooperation

April housing market anecdotes
2008-04-24 01:06:00
The 90/10 rule seems  to be in play this April , as in 10% of Realtors are managing 90% of the transactions. Our California title insurance friends are telling me that the number of transactions remain depressed this month, but our friends, many in the 90% group, are seeing the spring uptick just because they are in that 90% group. Here are some anecdotes about the spring buying season: Teresa Boardman says StPaul feels like 2005 San Francisco bidding wars video from Market watchBusiness Week profiles Altos Research data in assessing spring buying opportunities in 15 metro markets Some day, NAR will finally forecast the bottom right... the NAR spin chart from NJ RE Report h/t Matrix / Big Picture. Click to Matrix for a chronological list of NAR's economist quotes.
More About: Housing , Anecdotes

ChaseNation, a social network built on Ning
2008-04-22 01:54:00
I didn't exactly "get" Ning when I first experimented with it a year ago because I didn't see how scattered individuals could collectively develop Web 2.0 social networks. I watched others invite me to their Ning networks and noticed they were floundering in developing a network of essentially unrelated individuals. So my first impression was Ning allowed Facebook-like groups to create their own networks outside Facebook, but I questioned who in the group would actually set up the network on Ning and manage it when so many other social networks were vying for attention. I was reintroduced to Ning recently by a Fast Company article that explains Ning's successful exponential growth with the fact that each social network Ning creates attracts multiple members joining them: The company estimates that, at this rate, by New Year's Eve 2010 it will host some 4 million social networks, with tens of millions of members, serving up billions of page views daily. It took a visual exam...
More About: Social , Network , Social Network

Marketing message for buyer's agents
2008-04-21 19:46:00
SF Chronicle has an interesting twist on buyer's agents - for cars. I reproduce the article in its entirety because I thought the content was informative, and the messaging itself quite persuasive for this company's services. Some people like to haggle with car salesmen. Linda Lee Goldberg of San Rafael is one. She likes it so much you can hire her to do your haggling for you, at CarQ.com. "I went to work in car dealerships so I could learn sales management and financing. After I stepped out of the industry, that very day I became a buyer's agent and created a whole new concept in the way people could buy cars. A client contacts CarQ and creates the ideal profile for the vehicle they want. There is a process so we can obtain pricing information. That information is translated into a written preliminary pricing report. The client will then receive this report, which includes all the standard equipment, dealer costs and retail pricing on all the options, and a review of t...
More About: Marketing , Agents , Message

Simple poll about real estate sites
2008-04-17 23:46:00
Yes, it's unscientific, but possibly interesting...
More About: Technology , Estate , Real Estate , Sites , Poll

Repositioning the HomeGain image
2008-04-17 18:27:00
Before Web 2.0 took off less than two years ago, the only online products for real estate agents were lead generation plays - premium ad placement models like Realtor.com and lead buys from lead gen sources. Lead generation companies generally have tarnished reputations with real estate agents because the leads they sell have already been blanket labeled as "unworkable". From a marketing perspective, one needs to understand the psychological reasons why purchased leads have been damned: Lead generation is a tough product to sell. Many lead gen companies (not Homegain according to Louis) sold product under 6-12 month contract to lock in clients. The sales process generally uses a telemarketing force, which hints to a poorer sales experience. The lock in period irritates agents as ruthless. Purchased leads require cold calling to unsuspecting potential customers. It's not a task to look forward to... it's the last thing I'd want to do. Purchased leads' close rates are low (...
More About: Blogging , Image

A blogger broke Obama's "bitter voters" quote
2008-04-17 01:12:00
Who broke Barack Obama's now famous 'bitter voters clinging to guns and religion...' quote he made in San Francisco on March 11? 61-year old blogger Mayhill Fowler, who voluntarily blogs for the Huffington Post. The 61-year-old blogger tore the curtain from the front window of a longtime political refuge - the high-end fundraiser - and the ensuing tumult from her story about the closed-to-the-press event shows how coverage of campaigns continues to be rewritten in the digital age. "What Fowler did was commit an act of journalism," said Marc Cooper, her editor at the Huffington Post and a professor of journalism at the University of Southern California. She did it with a recorder. Blogging /news reporting/journalism morph into the massive media reporting system and we still only see a tiny glmmer of its potential.
More About: Blogger , Bitter , Voters , Quote

Strategic planning for real estate startups
2008-04-16 01:38:00
Nikolai Kolding at the new BH&G Real Estate blog inspired me to write more about the strategic planning process. Like Nicolai, I've always been hooked on how businesses work and why things happen, the essence of corporate strategy. Simply put, there are two types of strategic planning - corporate planning and startup planning. Nicolai describes the former by introducing the "scenario planning" methodology used by conglomerate Royal Dutch Shell: Shell uses scenarios to explore the future. Our scenarios are not mechanical forecasts.  They recognise that people hold beliefs and make choices that can lead down different paths.  They reveal different possible futures that are plausible and challenging. Our latest energy scenarios look at the world in the next half century, linking the uncertainties we hold about the future to the decisions we must make today. The next half century is long term planning (frankly, I think it is too long). This is the province of management...
More About: Real Estate , Planning , Strategic Planning

Poll: 60% of Americans won't buy homes in next two years, but 60% believe n
2008-04-14 11:16:00
60% of Americans won't buy homes in next two years, but 60% believe now is the time to buy. This contrary statistic simply states that Americans think the bottom is near, but they're certainly not willing to put their money where their mouth is. It indicates complete uncertainty in our economy.
More About: Economy , Poll , Homes , Years

The Alternative to Hard Selling
2008-04-14 10:58:00
On Real Estate Radio USA Friday, we discussed the hard sell ethos of the real estate professional. Like all sales people, everybody is generally trained to sell the same way. In the beginning, self promotion to gain exposure is natural... note the steps taken towards building a career:First, gain social recognition that one is a real estate professionalApprentice with a brokerage or teamContact friends and family for referralsParticipate in social activities - tours, open housesStart farming - email/mail drip marketing campaignAfter six months, now what?Get coaching from Ferry, Buffini, etalTeaches tactics to continually maintain contact with your contact databaseBuy leads - cold callI've outlined in red text the actions that have a "hard sell" edge or are aggressive. Here's an alternative method to developing a career, the blue text uses the "Law of Attraction" that seems to be a part of the lore of real estate practice. Hard selling at the beginning of a career makes little sens...
More About: Selling , Alternative , Blogging , The Alternative

Tricks of the Trade - Equity Indexed Annuities
2008-04-13 22:55:00
The TV remote passed by NBC Dateline on the way to ESPN this evening (arggh, Denver won, Warriors slim chance for playoffs...) and caught my attention with coverage on how sales people are trained to sell equity indexed annuities. I know mortgage brokers who have gotten insurance licenses to sell these products. The MO is to do a cashout refi and then invest the cash into these long term annuities. The mortgage brokers make money on the refi and the annuity commissions. Dateline's Chris Hansen investigates the questionable sales techniques. The most interesting marketing tricks are paying for credible celebrity status. For $2,500, a firm offers to place the deceptive agent's name as the author of a book called Alligator Proofing your Estate. Another service offered by Annuity University (now a defunct site) provides a faux radio interview that agents provide as CDs to their clients in order to establish credibility.
More About: Tricks , Trade , Transparency , Equity , Annuities

Housing Panic Awards list
2008-04-10 23:14:00
For a list of culprits related to the credit crunch - the f*ckd builders, lenders, i-banks, personalities - that made this 50%+ chance of recession all possible, Housing Panic compiled a list as a precursor to a survey. Also included are HP's picks for hated RE TV shows, politicians, bloggers, housing markets, and loved bubble blogs. It's a good reference list for surveying the downside of this economy. (h/t to Marlow, who wants to be on the list!)
More About: Economy , Awards , List

The value of the Mortgage Broker increases because banks no longer can sell
2008-04-08 16:26:00
We can kiss WAMU goodbye as it preps itself for an acquisition. Today's news gives all the indications... We've talked about how bricks and mortar will disappear as local centers of real estate commerce (or at least they should change their sterile function as meeting and signing places). WAMU, along with a $7 billion cash infusion (yes, another fire sale) that dilutes its shareholders about 48%, is closing 186 home loan centers. Frankly, more loan offices should be closed - rental expenses are too costly now that loans are becoming commoditized and the application processes don't require a visit to the loan officer. And WAMU also closed their wholesale lending division. That means mortgage brokers won't be able to sell WAMU loans to their borrowers. Borrowers must now deal directly with the bank... but what consumer wants to do that now at a time when credit tightening makes it more critical to efficiently source all their loan options. In one fell swoop, WAMU admits the obviou...
More About: Banks , Mortgage , Mortgages , Sell , Broker

Blog as Community Newspaper (literally)
2008-04-07 11:01:00
Perusing this list of the neighborhood newspapers in the San Francisco Bay Area makes me wonder how they survive on the merchant advertising revenue model minus the printing and distribution costs. Now their online equivalents are called hyperlocal news, and Techcrunch of all places alerts me to a formula for a blog-to-print paper business model.A New Zealand based company called ZetaPrints has automated the "blogpaper" - they cite their case study Flying Pickle as a successful example of how to repurpose a blog for print distribution and attract local advertising as a commercial venture. Flying Pickle was set up as a non-profit community blog without editorial bias to reach a set of communities of 6,500 people. The content is simply a business directory, community events listing and blog posts.The case study promotes the idea that the print copy (literally a one page flyer) has been key to Flying Pickle gaining community recognition. The lessons and challenges are interesting:We id...
More About: Community , Blogging , Blog , Literally , Newspaper

Death by blogging
2008-04-05 22:59:00
Real estate blogging tends to be a low key part time endeavor. On the other hand, professional blogging has become an obsessive pursuit for media fame. Bloggers realize they can essentially replace traditional online media sources by demonstrating their first to press advantage, and by doing so can reap the rewards of building an online media property (or empire). The New York Times reports on this obsessiveness to 24-by-7 reporting today by citing the deaths of two well known tech bloggers and the heart attack of a third over the past four months. ?I haven?t died yet,? said Michael Arrington, the founder and co-editor of TechCrunch, a popular technology blog. The site has brought in millions in advertising revenue, but there has been a hefty cost. Mr. Arrington says he has gained 30 pounds in the last three years, developed a severe sleeping disorder and turned his home into an office for him and four employees. ?At some point, I?ll have a nervous breakdown and be admitted to th...
More About: Blogging , Death

Zillow Mortgages is essentially a free open marketplace
2008-04-03 01:40:00
Zillow unveils its long awaited mortgage service today - it's essentially an online marketplace connecting the consumer with lender. And more important, it redefines lead generation from being a pay-for-play transaction to a free quote response system. Traditional lead generation models gather consumer data and sell them as leads - the consumer loses because their confidential personal data is distributed to persons unknown, and they become the recipients of unwanted phone calls. With Zillow, the consumer makes a request for quote, receives quotes from lenders registered and qualified with Zillow, and makes the decision to initiate contact. Here are a few more revolutionary features about the model: No lead generation fees. Zillow's stance is to leverage higher CPM advertising directed to individuals purchasing homes or loans.Mortgage brokers are rated by consumers after contact is made and after transaction completed. In order to attract consumer and receive good ratings, it b...
More About: Open , Free , Zillow , Mortgages , Marketplace

The slow death of the mass media business model
2008-04-02 14:23:00
First, music, then motion pictures (did you realize there are sites popping up that stream movie videos illegally? ), now books. The Internet has unleashed intellectual property leakage that frankly, can't really be resolved because there will always be an unknown someone in the world (say, a theater employee in Shanghai), uploading copy, and untouchable by governments and regulatory institutions like MPAA. Book piracy on the internet will ultimately drive authors to stop writing unless radical methods are devised to compensate them for lost sales. This is the bleak forecast of the Society of Authors, which represents more than 8,500 professional writers in the UK and believes that the havoc caused to the music business by illegal downloading is beginning to envelop the book trade. Tracy Chevalier, the author of Girl with a Pearl Earring who also chairs the London-based organisation, said that her members were deeply concerned that the publishing industry was failin...
More About: Business , Media , Disintermediation , Model , The Future

No Reason not to use Google Apps
2008-04-01 00:53:00
How did Matt and Brad organize RETechSouth, the conference presented by non-conference organizers? They used Google Docs, and shared the spreadsheet with the ad hoc organizing committee. The speaker list, the sponsor list, discussions on topics and speakers... all in one place and simple to use. Previously, the landscape of collaborative software was just too confusing for laymen adoption due to the high learning curve of a completely new application. Google Apps slyly provided a suite of Microsoft Office-like applications for normal folks and got them used to working the apps individually. The collaborative functionality turns on easily, and suddenly collaboration becomes a no-brainer accessible to even the tech-challenged. The only problem with Google Docs is when one needs to work offline, say in a plane or a ski cabin without wifi connection. Well, the blogosphere has been going wild today with the announcement that Google Apps will finally be usable offline using Google Gears...
More About: Reason

Blogging collides with journalism
2008-03-31 01:59:00
The new real estate blogger initially doesn't see the convergence of blogging with journalism. After a few months experience, the realization that their blog is a journalistic endeavor dawns on them. After all, for hyperlocal bloggers, it's real time published coverage of their market and community. Here are the indications that blogging and journalism are colliding, as explained by Time Magazine writer turned TechCrunch co-author Erick Schonfeld: Blogs like TechCrunch are hiring writers and newspapers are forcing their writers to have blogsProfessional blogs and mainstream media share the top spots on the Techmeme leaderboard. Blogs compete with MSM, with a fraction of the staff.Professional blogs live or die by how fast articles post after a story breaks. Blogs break news faster than CNN... remember, newspapers used to sustain credibility this way long ago ("Extra, extra"). Here are the differences between a blog and a mass media article: Blogs are 24-by-7 endeavors... n...
More About: Journalism , Blogging

RETechSouth - Conference 2.0
2008-03-29 00:30:00
RETechSouth was, from inception to finale, a remarkable surprise... set up adhoc in a span of 21 days from the day Matt Fagioli and Brad Nix met (kudos). Invitations and marketing went out along with the new website the week of March 10, two weeks before the event. What made RETechSouth a more vibrant, loose conference than any I've attended was its spontaneous, collaborative effort. Here's the way to run Conference 2.0: Let the speakers determine what they want to talk about, don't slot them into categories or narrow subjects. Moderators, don't over-control the conversation... leave questions open-ended and don't be surprised if the conversation veers off. Use the big screen to show website examples on the fly (this requires a "big screen" handler or a peripatetic moderator). Demonstrate with web examples what the speakers are discussing. Show the websites, videos and blogs that an audience member has questions about. Don't use the big screen to show talking heads all t...
More About: Events , Thank You

25 most valuable blogs
2008-03-27 08:50:00
24/7 Wall Street publishes the first article I've seen that attempts to value blogs and blog network properties.  Their valuations were based on independent traffic analysis and estimated advertising revenues, and is essentially one author's opinion on blog valuation. The takeaway is the impact of blogs are creating as media properties. For real estate professionals, blogs now need to viewed as online assets that will grow in intrinsic value over the life of the blog. It hasn't happened yet, but it's quite conceivable to view a mature, well trafficked local real estate blog in year 2018 as a property that can be sold like a doctor's practice. 1) Gawker blog network - Gawker, Gizmodo, Valleywag, Wonkette, etc. - $150 million (TECH) 2) MacRumors - Analyzing Apple, a popular blog topic - $85 million (TECH) 3) Huffington Post - $70 million (POLITICS/GENERAL) 4) Perez Hilton - $48 million (CELEBRITY) 5) Techcrunch - $36 million (TECH) 6) ArsTechnica - $15 million (TECH) 7) Seek...
More About: Blogging , Blogs

Twitter for conferences
2008-03-26 00:59:00
Twitter as an application has reached critical mass to provide value as a real time ticker tape for Web 2.0 practitioners. It's effective when it mimics broadcast media... following my melange of real estate, tech and economy twitter feeds is akin to working with CNBC business news in the background.I think it appeals to the hardcore multitasker who enjoys constant stimulus, and it's certainly not for anyone who frazzles easily. There are a lot of ways to view the device agnostic twitter. Since I'm not the garrulous type by nature, I tend to watch the stream for interesting links that twitterers find. As a social application, it's been compared to a tech water cooler where all the home office habitues hang out. I think it works best within an enclosed social environment, like a college or corporate campus, where twitter participants need or enjoy that constant virtual camaraderie.  It also works for conferences, essentially enclosed temporary groups of participants. We're ...
More About: Conferences , Twitter