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Recession map
2008-03-09 11:46:00
USA Today recession mapUSA Today, by way of Moody's Economy.com, published a map that charts the states and their metro areas now in recession.First, it's predictable that recession and foreclosure incidence go hand in hand... the states hit hardest had the most housing build activity over the past decade. (Why foreclosure hit Bakersfield is still in expansion? I guess it's based on oil...)Second, 30 states are still in expansion, adding some credibility to Bush's and the Fed's repeated assertions that the US economy may avert a recession.
More About: Recession

Twittering Ben Bernanke
2008-03-07 01:30:00
Hilarious if you like getting a running hourly series of economic jokes through your day - follow BenBernanke on Twitter! The Dow close today (12040.39) x100 felt like prime number to me. Spent good chunk of afternoon checking. Prime factors are 79 x 15,241. about 8 hours ago from twhirl If someone doesn't muzzle The Hammer soon I'm going to take this to GWB. This is absurd. about 9 hours ago from web Marc Faber calls me a destroyer of value? Be serious. I had a predecessor, you know. about 13 hours ago from twhirl By leaving rates unchanged today, the ECB is playing chicken wit...
More About: Comedy , Economy , Ben Bernanke

CBS affiliate adopts widgets and blog networks
2008-03-05 01:38:00
Kevin Boer passed me this email about plans for the local CBS affiliate TV station to create a network of local sites (essentially a blog network) for their online readership: Hello Kevin, I want to introduce the CBS 5 San Francisco/Bay Area network, a network of local sites that cover San Francisco/Bay Area news, sports, lifestyle, politics, arts and culture and invite you to apply for membership. WBZTV.com has partnered with Pulse 360 to help build this network. The main benefits of becoming a member include: Content ? CBS 5 is offering content widgets for you to place on your site in either video or story format.  The content comes directly from WBZ-TV and can compliment your original content to provide an even richer experience for your readers.  To see examples of the widgets, please click here: https://pvn.pulse360.com/pvn/verticals/cb s-san-francisco/  - Click the "See More Examples" link to see the different widg...
More About: Widgets , Affiliate , Networks , Blog

Culture 2.0: the end of Arrogance
2008-03-04 00:07:00
The most interesting political battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton illustrates a clash between social cultures that mirrors how Web 2.0 and social networking are flattening social hierarchies:"Hillary Clinton's campaign model," David Axelrod, Obama's chief strategist told me this morning in Chicago, "is a very tired Washington model: 'I'll do these things for you.' Barack's model is 'Let's do these things together.' Arianna Huffington describes the trend succinctly: Microtrends vs. Macrotrends: Why Obama is Winning : [Clinton's campaign manager Mark Penn...] "literally wrote the book on microtrends, but this election is about a macrotrend." Penn and the Clintons set about slicing up the electorate into the "small forces behind tomorrow's big changes" that Penn described in his 2007 book Microtrends. They then devised policies and personas to try to appeal to each one -- only to watch dumbfounded as their microtrend sandcastles were washed away by the macrot...
More About: Culture , Arrogance

Real Estate Radio USA done right
2008-03-02 15:01:00
I've often stated that video, even audio podcasts, for real estate are best produced by experts or professionals. Well, I've discovered "drive time" internet Real Estate Radio USA in the incarnation of Barry Johnson and Barry Cunningham. Produced with a one-minute intro on par with the gawdiest AM talk show, it's the living example of the Web 2.0 trend towards micro-programming, like NPR's Car Talk. I was on last Friday and liken the experience to being on traditional radio or TV interview. These guys understand radio programming - how to engage the guests and the listeners - an art that's difficult for any real estate agent podcasting. They are becoming the microphone of the real estate blogosphere because they're well read and know the personalities we all know, and are immediately ensconced in this family. The radio show format is easy to listen to... check out the broadcast here. I happened to be tagged (a rare occurrence) by Mark Pilatowski in the reincarnated ...
More About: Real Estate

Internet data credibility
2008-02-29 09:17:00
The Internet has always faced a content choice issue based on data credibility - does a search engine actually produce reliable references, or do "experts" fare better in delivering references unbiased beyond agenda? The obvious answer is both interpretations are necessary to assess the relative value of real estate data.  Search item Automated data/search analysis Results customized by human overviewProperty valuationZillow, Cyberhomes Redfin Sweet Digs, Socketsite and Curbed survey properties, but there will also be real estate agents who know the market bestHousing market conditionsAltos Research, Case Schiller indexReal Estate Voices (real estate article submissions) Housing Doom and ImplodeMeter article list (to check on the downside)Positive on Real Estate.com (antidote to Housing Doom)Real estate research Google - driven Swanepoel's Trends reportSearch engines Google - drivenMahalo, About.com - Search Engine Journal 2/28/08 on why Mahalo and hu...
More About: Technology , Data

This wheelchair ramp costs $1.1 million to the City of San Francisco
2008-02-27 22:49:00
San Francisco's city government is lamentable... in the private sector, this would be bid rigging... Here's what else is going into the million-dollar ramp: -- $77,000 for the city's Bureau of Architecture project manager, design and construction fees. -- $455,000 for the actual construction, plus asbestos removal. -- $28,000 for a construction scheduling consultant. -- $3,500 for an electrical consultant. -- $68,000 for the Bureau of Construction Management to oversee the construction and various consultants. -- $12,000 for Department of Technology and Information Services oversight. -- $16,500 for permits and fees. (Yes, believe it or not, the city charges itself.) -- And as much as $65,000 for bid overruns. And a few more quotes that sound just too self-serving for the citizenry: "It's crazy," admits Susan Mizner, director of the mayor's Office on Disability. "But this is just the price of doing business in a historic building." "I deserve equal access to every part of...
More About: Comedy , San Francisco , San Francisco Bay Area , City , Million

Beta Inman News
2008-02-26 20:20:00
Inman News shows off its new site in beta... here are my first impressions:it's blue!a softer Inman cube logo matches the cooler feel of the sitelight gray typeface has a washed out feeling, could be as dark as the typeface in the news articlesit's much cleaner than, say the New York Times what?! another community to join and populate? - recommendation: use that method to bring blocs of friends from Facebook, Linkedin whatever... so I don't have to scrounge around and ask to be friends one by one..."another community" comment aside... frankly, I can feel close to the Inman community... it's more Linkedin professional feel, less Active Rain hyperactivity (which btw is part of its charm)... and it's definitely more focused than Facebook, where I've somehow literally joined thousands of groups from the Warriors to Researchbitch, keep receiving email notifications that somebody has matched my score on Superpowers, and get befriended by my son's 13-year old buds.it's got a bl...
More About: Beta , Inman

New blog directories
2008-02-25 08:11:00
Blogged.com has been receiving coverage for its official launch Monday from the major tech blogs as a human--edited blog directory. Congrats to friends Reggie / Niknik and Joel for receiving high marks from Blogged's reviewers of real estate blogs. In addition, new directories Trafficjam.com and BlogCatalog also serve the same purpose of identifying relevant blogs by industry (in the above links' case, real estate). A number of blog directories have spawned as more consumers become accustomed to blogs as sources of information. The problem is the directories don't generate significant traffic to real estate blogs, because the directories themselves aren't well trafficked for specific industries like real estate. In other word, a reader searching for real estate blogs will likely bypass a generic blog directory in his/her search methodology. This blogger compiled a list of blog directory sites by Google page rank, with the caveat advice that participating in these blog director...
More About: Blog , Directories

Why I'm writing on the HomeGain blog
2008-02-21 19:20:00
A friend asked me why I posted an article on the HomeGain blog, considering HomeGain's position as a lead generation and lead sales company. I refer to an article I posted on the Inman News blog last June: Web 2.0 Disruption : Louis Cammarosano, General Manager of  Homegain engaged - don't dismiss Web 1.0 businesses like Homegain, they work because they are tried and true business models... "Web 1.0 companies, like HomeGain and "bricks and mortar" franchises like ReMAX, will add web 2.0 features when and as it pays to do so. Adding heat maps, HVAL tools, blogs, user generated content is not all that difficult. The trick is making those features pay. Making real estate pay is something that companies like HomeGain and ReMAX have a long history of doing.  Have Web 2.0 companies like Zillow and Trulia figured that out yet?" I see what Mr. Cammarosano means. Simply put, Web 1.0 upheld, even enhanced the status quo real estate business models like lead-gen...
More About: Writing , Blogging , Blog

Forbes Blog Network
2008-02-19 09:21:00
I've discussed how mainstream media is rapidly moving to include user generated content, particularly well trafficked, influential blog content, onto their sites. Forbes .com is developing a blog network of sites in the financial and business arena that is supposed to launch fairly soon. I received an invitation to participate for Transparent Real Estate, but I'm not exactly sure what to expect.  World Beta does the best job shedding light on how the new network, essentially a blog aggregator, works. Forbes seems to be copying the business model of Seeking Alpha, an aggregation of financial and business blog feeds that share revenues between Seeking Alpha and its contributing bloggers. Although slated to start last month, it now appears it will be unveiled soon... members received their site "badges" a week ago. Bill Hartzer started the MyBlog Log tag "ForbesBlogNetwork " to recognize this group. Here are a few other bloggers' commentary... conclusion - no one exactly knows...

Multitasking a boon for work/family life balance
2008-02-17 10:22:00
Mainstream media almost uniformly blasts on the stress of daily life facilitated by "Crackberries", wifi, laptops and multitasking in general. However, for working parents balancing work and family life, the "always on" life makes complete sense for certain character types who are comfortable with peripatetic multitasking. At the San Francisco Conservatory of Music, at chess tournaments and other indoor competitions, parents wait for their children to finish practice or matches in wifi-enabled lounges working on their laptops. The new Conservatory opened last September, and the architects made the common mistake of wiring for too few outlets so there's always a rush for plug position on Saturday mornings. To me, work efficiency makes life less stressful... I would rather spend that hour or two waiting for my children to finish practice on the laptop than wasting time driving back and forth. Moreover, the kids are used to it, they know that when they are finished, they get my full...
More About: Family , Life , Work , The Future , Balance

NBA All Star Weekend
2008-02-16 14:45:00
Love our Warriors... here's what Jeff van Gundy said after the Warriors/Suns game last Thursday:Jeff Van Gundy: "We should let them keep playing. We should let them play all through all-star weekend. In fact we should have these two teams play each other 16 times in a season"
More About: Events , All Star , Weekend , Star

Orange County sets trends for suburban living
2008-02-16 01:22:00
Despite the media portrayal of Orange County as a the new Peyton Place overrun by blondes and bikinied teenagers, this county of over 3,000,000 people is really America's suburban bellwether. Its melting pot demographics of 32% Latino and 16% Asian population defines a multicultural suburb that, by virtue of its trendsetting SoCal pedigree, is ground zero for propagating the new suburban lifestyle trends. After hearing rave reviews about the new Whole Foods located in the District shopping center next to Irvine, I had to visit before going to the airport. The press release says it all better than I can: Since its opening in 1980, Whole Foods Market has helped transform the way Americans eat and think about food. "We want our shoppers to celebrate the joys of eating and living well. We hope Whole Foods Market will continue to prompt change in the way people think about and shop for food" said John Mackey, Whole Foods Market CEO and co-founder. Highlights of T...
More About: Living , Trends , Sets , Orange County

Kinkos disfunctional business model
2008-02-14 10:08:00
We're traveling this week and had to make some copies at Kinko's (now given the tongue twisting name of FedexKinkos... which causes one to consider - does a brand name have such ego that it needs to insert itself into a simple, effective name like Kinkos?). I've always thought Kinko's was dysfunctional - a combination of demanding customers, poor service provided by a staff that seemed to be hired because they lacked the people skills to become barristas, and ugly fluorescent interiors. Well, Kinko's also has a completely backwards business model based on their main product: copies. Copies made by their service staff - collated and stapled if necessary - cost 8¢ per copy.  If I hook up my laptop to their LAN system, I can print directly to Kinko's printers for 49¢ each, 600% higher. It's the only model I've ever seen where automating a procedure takes the back seat to giving employees something to do, like managing a copier.It's backwards... I can't even think of an ...
More About: Business , Disintermediation , Model

Blog as door opener
2008-02-11 11:56:00
When a real estate agent starts developing a blog, the main objective is usually simple, even one-dimensional - to enhance their online marketing profile in order to get more leads. The blogger's progress follows a certain ritual: First, bloggers develop the hyperlocal content that position themselves as experts in their targeted area / city of influence. Example: Sunday's LA Times highlights real estate blogging as marketing tool (h/t to friend Elaine Carlson) As a blogger, the sudden realization they have gained entry into a larger social network of bloggers. Example: Active Rain. They find, and interact with a smaller corps of bloggers for friendship and to trade business ideas, just like physical life. Example: What my Group Blog means to me and you The network becomes a referral source. They understand that bloggers do business with other bloggers for the same surprising reason as any social network they belong to - trust. Example: As referral sources, commission spl...
More About: Blogging , Door

Commercial social networks
2008-02-08 00:10:00
While I was selling my car, I noted that it was still hard to sell items via the social network. Theoretically, transactions between friends in an established network is efficient because the trust factor needs to be maintained... any transgressions will create network friction. Facebook provides a social selling widget Radical Buy that allows the seller to set any commission to an intermediary who connects the buyer with the seller. In the larger scheme, the widget could make Facebook users eBay-like hubs who extend their networks commercially. The social network is being leveraged to facilitate peer-to-peer financial transactions. Read Gartner Group's study on how social banking platforms may account for 10% of retail lending within two year (a striking claim...) Non-bank competitors are pushing aggressively into banking and investment services, threatening to undermine banks in the financial relationship, according to Gartner. The threat is particularly pronounced in two bu...
More About: Social , Commercial , Social Networks , Networks

Help the Tornado Victims
2008-02-07 22:03:00
Kudos to  Agent Genius...their message:[Thanks] All funds will be given in the name of RE.net - our online real estate community.  Where ever you see [Help] around the RE.net, thank them, we surely will with lots of link love, and kudos.
More About: Events , Tornado , Victims

Watch Election 2008 Returns on Google Maps with Media Twitters
2008-02-05 23:36:00
H/T to Screenwerk for pointing out an intriguing way to watch the SuperTuesday Election 2008 returns on Google Maps with Twitter feed comments from all over the country (and world) in real time...See how Twitter is beginning to integrate itself into new media as a vox populi ticker tape?
More About: Media , Watch , Google Maps

Economic doomsayers - part 2
2008-02-05 01:33:00
Two interesting links appeared in comments from yesterday's post on the Armageddon Economy. First (h/t to Sean O'Toole for setting me straight on Janszen's perspective), iTulip's Eric Janszen explains the distinction between two types of economic doomsayers: Deflationistas (Janszen's term) believe that continuing asset deflation is rooted in consumers spiraling deeper into debt while real wages fall due to global wage arbitrage (plus the added bonus of the deflating asset values like stocks and housing). Hyper-inflationistas believe rampant inflation will rear its head with further massive Fed / Central Bank rate cuts combined with a sinking dollar. Janszen argues this won't happen (for similar reasons I've expressed earlier in Transparent): For a nation to experience a hyperinflation, all four of the following conditions need to be met: Large and growing external debt as a percentage of GDP with falling GDP (Yes, like the US.)Politically and economically isolated and...
More About: Part , Economic

Too much focus on the Armageddon Economy
2008-02-04 02:06:00
The US Economy faces the Guillotine - when Newsweek predicts Armageddon to the masses, and the masses all believe in the upcoming Armageddon, then we're in a state of mass hysteria. In such an absolute state,  only a contrarian can provide counterpoint and potentially profit from the unexpected. Let's counter some of the accepted wisdom the mainstream media and the financial pundits have been spouting with some legitimate contrarian perspective. The accepted wisdom: As the Fed drops interest rates, the dollar will crash The contrarian view: According to Bloomberg, the dollar is primed to rise this year versus the Euro as the Fed's bold rate cuts will boost the US economy just as the European economy slows: For the first time since 2003, investors are focused on relative growth prospects rather than absolute borrowing costs, according to Geoffrey Yu, a London-based strategist with UBS AG, the No. 2 trader. The steepest cuts by a Federal Reserve chairman in seven years w...
More About: Focus

Free wifi networks
2008-02-03 12:24:00
In San Francisco, a city wide free internet initiative proposed by Google and Earthlink was met with fanfare last year and then notoriously dumped by a dysfunctional Board of Supervisors who made extra demands on the wifi providers that toppled the deal. A private company, Meraki started a "Free the Net!" campaign that uses wifi repeaters to spread the wifi signal free. Consumer participants need to capture the "Free the Net" signal before they can qualify for a Meraki repeater to boost the signal further onward across San Francisco (unfortunately the signal hasn't reached my neighborhood yet or I would qualify for a free repeater).Meraki started its network in the center of San Francisco and its currently in build out towards the edges. Yesterday, Meraki announced a $20 million VC funding to provide free wireless internet access for the city of San Francisco. After proving the repeater proliferation model in San Francisco, the company will expand nationally. There are many homegr...
More About: Technology , Networks , Wifi , San Francisco Bay Area

Free the Net!
2008-01-31 22:47:00
This is a pet peeve story.Up to early 2007, free wifi signals dotted the urban landscape of San Francisco and one could just park the car, open the laptop and voila! be on. Now, people have figured out how to set up WEP passwords due to the imagined threat of "drive-by" spammers who, as urban myth has it, find a free wifi signal to unleash their spam distribution. We had grown accustomed to wifi being like electricity... open and free. I (and I'm sure countless others) mentally note every free wifi coffee shop in the neighborhoods where we have meetings so we can refer to them immediately. These shops always get my business. Coffee shop owners complain of wifi-loungers, so they should do what this brilliant bakery chain Panera Bread does - they offer free wifi except between the lunch hours of 11:00 - 2:00 when wifi use is restricted and clocked to 30 minutes. Panera is my meeting spot of choice whenever I'm in SoCal. Every restaurant chain should do this. Booking a conference a...
More About: Free , Disintermediation , The Future

A rash of property search engines
2008-01-31 01:31:00
To the untrained eye of the consumer, the functionality of real estate search and listings sites all seem similar. The first glance differentiating factors are ease of use, attractive design and special features. Many of the newer search sites take their cue from Google's simple query box: The initial feedback on newly launched US version of European based DotHomes is its ease of use and speedy search results. What's under the hood of these new search engines? DotHomes is a data aggregation search play. Its technology extracts specific fields off listings websites - # bedrooms, # bath, sq ft, price per sq ft - and displays the data on site. It also catalogs tag words - neighborhood name, probate, backyard - from the listings description to refine more detailed queries, like "san francisco pacific heights with backyard". The differential technological advantage is DotHomes' ability to "wrap" any listings website quickly and extract data deep down to the individual listing. I be...
More About: Technology , Search Engines , Property , Search , Engines

The new Investment Banking paradigm
2008-01-28 03:22:00
If one subscribes to the idea that a real estate transaction is basically matching capital with opportunity, and that the transactional process has become more transparent due to internet data, then it's logical to see that any intermediary based transaction is also fair game. Investment banking and venture capital is a relationship based business that matches investor bases, often institutional investors, with opportunities - stocks, bonds, M&A, start ups, etc. Like any other lucrative business model, maintaining the mystique of "high finance" and managing deals behind the scenes keeps power contained within the select few who live on Park Avenue or in Woodside. TheFunded.com, a website where entrepreneurs post data and feedback on the venture capital community, begins to level the playing field for entrepreneurs who pilgrimaged to so many VC meetings in order to figure out where their investment opportunities stood. Techcrunch notes TheFunded is now creating a database of V...
More About: Banking , Disintermediation , The Future , Transparency

Can the new refi boom usher in new lending models to keep the industry ethi
2008-01-24 23:40:00
(from Bankrate.com 1/24/08)Mortgage broker friends have been telling me there is a refinancing boom happening with mortgage rates sliding.  With the new boom, I'm hoping the shady mortgage lending practices of the pre-credit crunch days have been scrutinized by and made more visible to the consumer. However, I hear once again those ubiquitous, vainglorious mortgage broker radio ads with that call to action - "mortgage rates have again hit all time lows and won't stay there, so call now". We're ready to see the Charles Schwab-ization of mortgage lending - with rates visible to the consumer without hidden backends / yield spread premiums, or prepayment penalties that can indirectly compensate brokers. With product simplification, all the Schwab-like mortgage broker would add is his/her fee. I'm sure mortgage brokers will cry "it just isn't that simple", and that's likely true now, but we're heading in that direction because mortgage lending will, like airplane tickets an...
More About: Models , Industry , Usher , Disintermediation , The Industry

Now the European Central Bank waffles on rate cut recovery measures
2008-01-23 13:35:00
ECB President Jean Claude Trichet replaces Bernanke as not "getting" the magnitude of the global recessionary threatSurprisingly, the UK and European Central Bank s did not see fit to drop their interest rates in tandem with yesterdays's 75bp Fed rate cut, citing inflationary pressures. Coordinated action by the world's Central Banks in lowering rates to head off a global recession was expected here. After all, Bernanke made the first move yesterday.... now the ball is in Europe's court. Jon Ogg at 24/7 Wall St. explains the implications of the ECB's stubborn, but fallible position - "maybe the Central Bankers and their wives want to... come shopping in New York City before they lower rates". Notice though the dollar has remained remarkably resilient vs. the Euro today, perhaps in part with the expectation of future coordinated rate cut action. In any case, most pundits expect European markets to suffer from this short-sighted decision, it's the principle reason why Europe fel...
More About: Economy , Recovery

Global crash unnerves Fed - Interest rates will plunge
2008-01-22 08:54:00
The global market meltdown unnerved the Fed and they made their first intermeeting Fed Funds rate cut of 75 bp since September 17, 2001. Investors are still massively selling off Tuesday because they are panicked. Even though the cut is positive, they are selling to catch up with the other markets with one extra day of losses due to the MLK holiday. The bear market  dominates and a "sell into the rally" mentality is the theme for today. The Fed finally looks like they will take a sledge hammer to avoiding the recession for the globe's sake, and it's quite likely that another 50pb cut is coming on January 31 for their formal meeting. The dollar is doing fine, reflecting the fact that Central Banks are all working in unison to solve the global selloff.  The European Central Bank is also considering rate cuts. If the dollar continues to hold up over the short term, it will engender confidence that the US can lead the global markets away from today's panic. In fact, the t...
More About: Economy , Interest Rates , Global , Interest , Crash

Global market crash update
2008-01-21 15:39:00
Updating from yesterday's article on Bernanke and the Fed's credibility as they dawdle from decisive action to avoid recession, it's becoming clear that a US market crash is pulling down all global markets. US markets are closed today for Martin Luther King Day, but the rest of the world is melting down while Nero fiddles. Tomorrow's futures markets imply a 3-4% drop in the major indices when markets open. The Fed is now further burdened with staving off a global market crash with its actions in the US. Fortunately, the world's economic leaders will be attending the World Economic Forum in Davos this week to control the effects of "irrational depression" that everybody is feeling. Hopefully, the Forum will stimulate the global Central Banks to work together in unison to lower interest rates and consider anti-inflation policy. Bold assumption, but it's perfect timing for a special Fed rate cut tomorrow to reassure the markets that the Fed now "gets it". Update : Matt Carter ...
More About: Economy , Market , Global , Crash

Bernanke's credibility on the ropes
2008-01-20 14:50:00
As the spectre of economic meltdown has media, Wall Street and George Bush crying for a solution in unison, Ben Bernanke's counterpoint message that the economy is just growing slowly and not yet headed into a recession seems surreal. Wall Street's market crash seem to be a ploy to force Bernanke and the Fed to drastic rate cuts... and Bernanke is starting to look like the problem - "all talk and no action". Bernanke and the FOMC, knowing that each time they meet over the first half of 2008 will likely require one more rate cut, seems to be setting a target low Fed Funds rate (such as Goldman Sachs year end 2008 rate target of 2.5%), and then backing into a "schedule" for an orderly rate drop. Economist View has a good reference article on this rate cut control strategy by Fed watcher Tim Duy, who believes that the Fed will continue to act conservatively with a 50bp rate cut on January 31, and not the 75bp the masses are clamoring for, so they have room for further future cuts if...
More About: Economy