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Home Buyers Disappear
2008-04-14 21:14:00
From the AP:In an ominous snapshot of how the sagging real estate market and sour economy are intersecting, the Associated Press-AOL Money & Finance poll also found that 60 percent said they definitely won't a buy a home in the next two years.That was up from 53 percent who said so in an AP-AOL poll in September 2006. Only 11 percent are certain or very likely to buy soon, down from 15 percent two years ago.In today's economic climate, even holding onto what they already have is a challenge and source of distress for significant numbers of homeowners. Nearly three in 10 said they are concerned their home's value will decline over the next two years, while 14 percent of mortgage holders expressed worry that they might miss payments in the next six months.
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February U of O Index of Economic Indicators
2008-04-13 21:27:00
Professor Duy and the University of Oregon released the Index of Economic Indicators last week.The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators partially rebounded from January's sharp decline, rising 0.6 percent in February to 102.4, based on a 1997 benchmark of 100.Click on any graph for a sharper image. As a general rule of thumb, a decline of 3.5 percent over six months, coupled with a decline in more than half of its components, signals that a recession is likely imminent.On the job market:Labor market data were mixed in February. Consistent with softer economic conditions, nonfarm payrolls declined during the month as firms shed a net 1,600 employees and year-over-year job growth decelerated to 0.7 percent. On a more positive note, initial unemployment claims registered a decline after seven consecutive monthly increases. Further rises in initial claims from January levels would signal a pace of job losses typical of recessions, Duy said. On the housing starts:Residentia...

First KPMG Now Deloitte...
2008-04-13 01:55:00
KPMG was the first of the big 4 to take a hit now it's Deloitte 's turn.Reuters - The liquidators of two Bear Stearns Cos mortgage hedge funds that collapsed last year, filed suit on Monday against the company and its auditor, Deloitte & Touche, seeking to recover over $1 billion in losses.The suit, filed in U.S. District Court in Manhattan, accuses Bear, the managers of the hedge fund, and Deloitte, of not living up to assurances that the funds were relatively safe and conservative investment vehicles.The liquidators added that the funds were never designed to withstand even a "slight downtick" in the housing market.Bear Stearns and its hedge fund managers "conceived, marketed and managed hedge funds that they knew would be viable so long as - but only so long as - the U.S. housing market continued to rise," the suit said.The suit charges that the company, the fund managers, and Deloitte violated their fiduciary and professional duties. The suit said Deloitte's preparation of...

The Oregon Credit Crunch
2008-04-13 01:45:00
From the Portland Business Journal:Ryan Buchanan wasn't too surprised when his bank asked for a lien on his house after he applied to increase the credit line for his Internet marketing company.After all, his father, a successful businessman, had warned Buchanan that tightening credit markets could affect borrowing requirements, even for an established and thriving company like eROI Inc., which has been growing handsomely for more than five years.With credit markets tightening, it's a story that's starting to sound familiar to Portland-area business people.Loan officers are asking for more proof of income and profits, more verification of the value of assets and more documentation of accounts receivable.Even for banks with plenty of available cash, there's pressure from regulators to bemore careful when verifying a borrower's ability to pay. The pressure stems from recent criticism of banking regulators who didn't dig deeply enough into the soundness of subprime mortgages.Even...
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Eugene Homebuilders Adjust to Real Estate Slowdown
2008-04-11 23:38:00
From the Register Guard:Upstairs on a bed stand, in the model home that Jesse Seery hopes to replicate in his 64-lot subdivision in west Eugene , sits a sculpture of a hand with its fingers crossed.Luck is what builders yearn for nowadays when embarking on a project in a skittish real estate market.?I?d be lying to you if I said I wasn?t nervous,? Seery confesses, but quickly adds: ?But I believe in our product, and the prices are just fantastic.?Aside from the single model home, Seery has launched work on seven houses in the subdivision ? two of them for specific buyers and the rest on speculation.Seery?s doing everything he can think of to ensure that the homes will eventually sell.He has consulted with a real estate agent, who told him to push out the walls to get a more favorable ratio of cost to square feet, On some models, he dropped the square-foot price to $128, down from $156.Seery said he?ll price the homes at the Amy?s Landing subdivision on Barger Drive at Enchantment Dri...
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Clark County Home Sales Remain Weak
2008-04-11 21:09:00
From the Columbian:Clark County home sales remained weak and prices continued to show erosion in March, according to a monthly report released Thursday.A total of 292 new and pre-owned homes sold last month, compared to 771 homes sold during March 2007, reported ?benchmarks,? a Vancouver-based real estate tracking service. The countywide median sales price (half sold for more-half for less) was $248,000 for all homes sold last month, representing a 4.6 percent price drop from the $260,000 median for homes sold in March 2007.The numbers out of Vancouver are getting worse each month.In January Mike Lamb, a broker with Windermere Realty said, ?Reports from agents suggest there are a large number of offers on houses in the sale process that are waiting for banks to respond.?Last month Sandy Hendrick, the executive director of the Clark County Association of Realtors said, ?signs of an improving spring market are already evident. ?We?re hearing reports that more people are attending open...
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Bend Real Estate Falls Off Cliff
2008-04-10 18:31:00
From the Bend Bulletin:Median home sales prices in the first three months of 2008 fell almost 12 percent in Bend and 14 percent in Redmond from the first quarter of 2007, according to a report Wednesday from the Central Oregon Association of Real tors.Bend?s median sales price ? the price at which half the homes sold for more and half for less ? for single-family homes on less than an acre was $306,500 in the quarter. Redmond?s median was $220,000.Elsewhere in the region, home prices dropped 15.5 percent in Sisters, 27.5 percent in La Pine and 9.1 percent in Jefferson County, but prices rose 16.5 percent inSunriver and 8.1 percent in Crook County, the report said.The number of homes sold in Bend in the quarter dropped 44 percent, to 222 units, and 30.3 percent in Redmond, to 92 homes, according to the Realtors association?s report of data provided by the Central Oregon Multiple Listing Service.Local real estate officials weren?t surprised by the declines in sales and prices, citing m...
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Oregon Homeowners Walk Away
2008-04-09 21:26:00
From the MailTribune:Garbage bags, children's toys, lawn care equipment and beer bottles are strewn about this east Medford house, valued at $453,000.Inside there's a piano; outside, there's a swimming pool filled with murky green water. There's so much junk the city has posted notice that the accumulation is unlawful.But there's no one home to clean it up. Unable to make mortgage payments, the homeowners walked away.As the nation's subprime mortgage crisis comes to a head, more houses are being abandoned in Medford, real estate agents and city officials say. Foreclosures have skyrocketed, and more than 750 Jackson County property owners defaulted on mortgage payments in 2007.Dave Myers, an agent with John L. Scott Real Estate in Medford, is marketing the abandoned east Medford house, but he doesn't know the owners' story."I don't know what happened," he said. "It was assigned to us by the bank that took the property back."Myers, who has been marketing foreclosed property f...
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Mortgage Fraud Lands 30 Month Prison Sentence
2008-04-09 18:38:00
From the Oregonian:U.S. District Judge Michael Mosman today sentenced a Portland man to 30 months in prison for his role in a mortgage fraud scheme.According to a news release from the office of United States Attorney Karin J. Immergut, the scheme involved two residential real estate transactions in 2004.Ryan Bonneau, 31, also will serve five years of supervised release after his prison term. Bonneau pled guilty to wire fraud and money laundering in November, 2007.The news release said that Bonneau admitted that he, along with two others, devised a scheme to defraud the Union Federal Bank of Indianapolis by making false statements in mortgage loan applications in connection with transactions involving the two properties.In each transaction, the sales price of the home was inflated so that the Bonneau could apply for a larger mortgage and divert the extra cash to bank accounts he controlled. Bonneau also admitted submitting a false appraisal on each property.Bonneau became involved i...
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Jackson County Median Home Price Off 13%
2008-04-08 23:14:00
From the MailTribune in Southern Oregon:Jackson County 's residential housing slump continued to reflect the national numbers during the first quarter of 2008.Sales prices for the area's existing single-family residences tumbled 9.6 percent to $235,000 during the first three months of the year. The March median sales price for existing single-family residences declined 12.9 percent to $235,000, from $270,000 a year earlier.California's residential real estate woes continues to ripple into the Southern Oregon market, said Doug Morse, an agent with Coldwell Banker Pro West Real Estate in Medford. "Forty-three percent of our buyers are from California and they're not coming up because they haven't been able to sell their houses."He has heard from clients of some movement in the Bay Area market recently."Maybe that will trickle up here," he said. Ashland saw a 20.6 percent drop in its median sales price to $341,250 during the first three months of the year. Just 38 homes were sold, ...
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Oregon Subprime & Alt-A Map
2008-04-08 19:40:00
The New York Fed created a dynamic map that shows loan performance for each state. Below you will find the stats for Alt-A & subprime loans for Oregon . Click on any image for a better picture. The thing that really catches my eye is the LTV for both Alt-A and subprime loans; 80% for Alt-A and 90% for Subprime .Two-thirds of the Alt-A loans were 'Liar Loans'.
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Lots and Lots of Lots in Bend
2008-04-08 02:49:00
If you think Bend has a bunch of homes for sale then you need to see how many bare lots are waiting for the turn around...One of Oregon's biggest commercial lenders has already pulled out of Bend. I wonder how long this land can sit and wait before the lenders want their money back.

Too Funny
2008-04-08 01:15:00
Guess who is being recognized as one of the top economic forecasters for accuracy.
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Portland Condo Market Suffers From Downturn
2008-04-06 20:41:00
The Oregonian gives us an update on the Portland condo market.Portland overview:Portland developers rode one of the longest and largest downtown condo construction booms in U.S. history.The downtown condo market, tiny in Portland until the 1990s, cashed in on twin forces: Baby boomers leaving their empty nests and young professionals with no desire to round out a Beaverton cul-de-sac.With ready demand, developers built more than 4,000 downtown condos since 2001. That's more than twice the amount built in the past 30 years, according to real estate firm CB Richard Ellis.At the peak in 2005, brokers needed just a week to get more than 200 people to reserve a spot in South Waterfront's John Ross tower. But no boom lasts forever. Like the 1990s dot-com expansion, all business cycles are, after all, cycles. Portland's condo sales started to slow about 18 months ago. The first wisp of change attracted little notice.Quick-turn investors, more tuned in to business cycles than typical buy...
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Encore Condo Stuck At 12 Units Sold
2008-04-05 20:53:00
Here is a preview of what the Sunday O will bring us:The downtown condo slowdown is proving to be worse than most people expected. We wrote last fall about the rise and fall of the condo market. At the time, people we talked to seemed to think the slowdown would be temporary and not too painful. They expected job growth would continue to be at least stable and population growth would be strong, two prime drivers for housing demand.This Sunday, we take another look at how the major condo projects are doing after the first quarter. And in a lot of cases, it's not pretty. The are two factors that no one could account for last fall: The collapse of the mortgage market and the general fear that's running through buyers. The same people who expected the slow down to be shallow now say that condo sales in some buildings have been flat over the last nine months. The worst of the pain is hitting the last generation of projects to rise out of the boom. Most of these are three-year projects ...
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A Bubble's Aftermath:
2008-04-04 02:30:00
Housing prices must find their own equilibriumFrom the Register Guard's Opinion page:Housing prices in Portland increased 23 percent in 2006. Clearly, such increases could not be sustained. Now that the party is over, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has arrived with a hangover remedy.His palliative may provide some relief, as might proposals in Congress and on the presidential campaign trail to stave off home foreclosures.But the only real cure will be time, which will bring housing prices more closely in line with qualified buyers? ability to pay.Paulson suggests reorganizing the agencies that oversee the nation?s banks and financial markets, most of which are unchanged since the 1930s. To the extent that the implications of these changes can be understood, the secretary?s plan includes promising elements.A commission to set standards for mortgage brokers, for example, could prevent some of the over­lending to unqualified borrowers that pumped the housing bubble to the bursti...

Bend Foreclosures Spike in First Quarter
2008-04-03 21:16:00
From the Bend Bulletin: A pair of local officials ? one a banker, another a credit counselor ? were skeptical Wednesday about the effects that Senate legislation could have on homeowners facing foreclosure in Central Oregon, saying the money won?t address the region?s problems and will likely go to other states first.Benefits of the national legislation ? which would include $100 million to expand counseling services for homeowners at risk of defaulting on their loans ? would trickle slowly to Oregon, a state that hasn?t been hit as hard by foreclosures as Arizona, California and Florida, predicted Bob Mullins, a money management volunteer for Bend-based Consumer Credit Counseling Service of Mid-Oregon.The number of mortgages entering the early stages of foreclosure during the first three months of 2008 nearly tripled the number in the same period last year, according to the Deschutes County Clerk?s Office.This year, the county is on pace to more than double mortgage default totals ...
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Could Oregon Dodge National Recession?
2008-04-03 18:36:00
From the Oregon ian:While Oregon's economy remains in decline, state officials say the depths of its slide may be modest."We don't expect Oregon to meet the definition of a real recession," said Michael Kennedy, senior economist with Oregon's Office of Economic Analysis.Kennedy's office tracks the state economy with an index of indicators modeled on national economic measures. The February index, issued this week, shows a 6.5 percent decline -- improving on a 10.5 percent decline in January.The index has been falling since 2006, Kennedy said, more slowly than before the 2001 recession.Averaged over six months, Oregon employment continued growing in February -- albeit modestly, at just 0.5 percent. Though no formal definition exists for what constitutes an Oregon recession, Kennedy said continued job growth is an indication that the state economy retains some strength."Our No.1 variable we use is employment," he said.The state compiles its Index of Leading Indicators every month b...
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I Was Watching The Simpsons Online...
2008-04-03 05:27:00
...and couldn't stop laughing at this one.
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Realtor Audit: Cheri Smith
2008-04-02 21:23:00
From Bend Realtor Cheri Smith :I am tired of all the negative press about our real estate market so I was really excited to get an email this morning about the new marketing campaign being launched. The combined efforts of the Central Oregon Chamber of Commerce,Central Oregon Builder's Association, Mortgage Professionals (OAMP), and Realtors (COAR) are partnering to spread the word that it's a great time to buy!Of course I agree and never miss an opportunity to share this view but it will be wonderful to have an alliance with the same mission. The message is pretty clear:Interest rates are at near historic lows, 100% financing still exists as do interest only loans, and more homes of all types are currently available. It's a great time to buy your first home or upgrade to the home of your dreams. The long term market is sure to appreciate. It's all about the buyers! Will you be able to look back and say you took advantage of it or will you regret that you missed out? According to...
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Bend Real Estate Continues Freefall
2008-04-01 16:35:00
From the Bend Bulletin:Home sales in Bend are down, but several local residential property management companies say business is up.More renters are in the market, and there are more houses to choose from, said Regan Scott, principal broker of Deschutes Property Management in Bend. That means falling rents for single-family homes and move-in incentives in some cases, Scott said.?We?re having a good year and expecting it to be a phenomenal summer,? said Scott, who?s adding staff.Scott?s firm manages roughly 800 housing units, an increase of more than 100 units compared with the same time last year, he said.Scott said the influx of rental homes is primarily due to a soft housing market that is forcing investors who purchased homes for a quick profit to rent them in order not to lose them. Scott said many of the homeowners who hired his company never intended to rent their properties.?This is unique in our market because this hasn?t happened in the past,? Scott said. ?We?re dealing with...
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Portland Housing: Buy Here Now
2008-03-31 16:05:00
The latest issue of Portland Monthly hit the stands this week. The cover story is about Portland real estate and why Portland is still America?s hottest hometown. Here are the reasons why you must BUY HERE NOW according to Portland Monthly:Low foreclosures. In 2007 little more than one percent of our existing home loans were in foreclosure or seriously delinquent, giving us the second-lowest foreclosure rate in the country behind Alaska.My rebuttal: Oregon now ranks 25th in the nation for foreclosure activity according to RealtyTrac.Home prices still going up. In February the Economist reported that Portland was one of three U.S. cities where prices actually increased in 2007. While we saw an increase of 6.3 percent the rest of the country saw a collective drop of 8.9 percent.My rebuttal: Old news; Portland is now down 6% and dropping.Conservative lending practices are a tradition in Oregon. Sub-prime loans made up only 10.5 percent of our states home loan business in 2006. My rebut...
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Welcome To The Portland Housing Blog
2008-03-31 06:47:00
Here is your open thread.Don't forget to bookmark the site.
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Real Case-Shiller Index With SFO Added
2008-03-30 20:53:00
PDX Outsider asked me to add San Francisco to the real Case -Shiller Index . According to Case-Shiller the San Francisco metro area consists of 5 counties covering San Francisco, Oakland, and Freemont so I don't think this will really show the effects of restricting supply.
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Bend Bulletin: It's Only News If We Report It
2008-03-29 02:30:00
The 'other' newspaper in Bend is having a field day with the Bulletin 's coverage of the real estate market.From The Source Weekly in Bend:When Fannie and Freddie make a move, the real estate industry takes notice. But when they tightened the rules for mortgages in Deschutes County, our local daily didn?t bat an eyelash.Fannie and Freddie are Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FHLMC), two government-sponsored enterprises that insure most of the home mortgage loans in this country. Home buyers typically need mortgage insurance if they can?t make a down payment of 20% or more.In the wake of the popping of the real estate bubble, Fannie and Freddie have flagged portions of three Oregon counties ? Deschutes, Lane and Jackson ? as high-risk and imposed tighter restrictions on the types of mortgages they?ll guarantee there. The designation will make it harder for buyers ? especially first-timers and others who don?t have much money for a down payment ? to get mortgages and could have th...
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Real Case-Shiller Index
2008-03-28 19:45:00
Here is a look at the Real Case -Shiller Index . Real numbers are adjusted for inflation; nominal numbers do not take inflation into account. Almost all the data we hear is nominal but real data gives us a better indication of how real estate as an asset class performs over time.I wanted to see how Portland and Seattle compare to bubble cities such as Los Angeles and San Diego and non-bubble cities such as Dallas and Charlotte. January 2000 equals 100 for all the indices. Click on the graph for a sharper image.Portland and Seattle certainly aren?t in as bad of shape as the California markets but I don?t think you can call us a non-bubble city.California is halfway through its correction and it looks like Portland will reach that point in mid 2008. Kind of interesting to see how Dallas and Charlotte are trending down despite their non-bubble status.

How To Buy A Home With Chase
2008-03-27 23:10:00
From the Oregonian:A newly surfaced memo from banking giant JPMorgan Chase provides a rare glimpse into the mentality that fueled the mortgage crisis.The memo's title says it all: "Zippy Cheats & Tricks."It is a primer on how to get risky mortgage loans approved by Zippy, Chase's in-house automated loan underwriting system. The secret to approval? Inflate the borrowers' income or otherwise falsify their loan application.The Chase memo deals specifically with so-called stated-income asset loans, one of the most dangerous of the mortgage industry's innovations of recent years. Known as "liar loans" in some circles because lenders made little effort to verify information in the borrowers' loan application, they have defaulted in large number since the housing bust began in 2007. The document recommends three "handy steps" to loan approval:Do not break out a borrower's compensation by income, commissions, bonus and tips, as is typically done in a loan application. Instead, lum...
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Last Year?s Dreams Are Still Available
2008-03-27 18:35:00
A reader of the site directed me to this one.The 2008 Street of Dreams is only 5 months away and builders are gearing up for another successful run.The only problem is that the 2007 Street of Dreams wasn?t a success. Five of the six homes built for the annual showcase are still sitting on the market with little interest. The one that actually sold went for less than the asking price.Cottage in the TreesAsking price $2,200,000.004,300 square feet Elegant simplicity and Old-World charm are the only words to describe this one level, four bedrooms, four bathrooms artisan home built by Blazer Development. The home comes complete with a putting green and sand trap in the backyard.Timbers EdgeSOLD!5,500 square feetThe home is designed in a contemporary lodge style with vast windows and rough timber which is fitting for the rugged Northwest.Downstairs beside the home entertainment center you?ll find a well crafted bar and wine cellar which holds nearly 400 bottles of wine.Salish MoonAsking ...
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Apartments To Condos Then Back To Apartments
2008-03-27 15:47:00
From the Oregonian:Portland's slowing real estate market pushed investors to turn a third downtown tower from for-sale condos to rental apartments, a California investor announced Wednesday.JB Matteson Inc. has purchased a 24-story, 185-unit tower from Portland Center Investors, a group that included Portland developer Homer Williams. The tower is part of a three-building complex that had been known as Portland Center Apartments . Williams' group bought the complex for $77.5 million in 2005 -- during the white-hot condo boom -- to convert the 1960s-era apartments into moderately priced condos known as the Harrison, 222 S.W. Harrison.The group renovated the west and east buildings. Today, 46 condos are unsold out of 351 in those two buildings. Last year, the group went ahead with renovations to the final, or south, tower. Wednesday's announcement means the renovated south tower will instead be apartments.Williams said sputtering condo sales and booming apartment rents combined to m...
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Manufactured Housing Factory Closes Doors
2008-03-27 02:21:00
From KGW:A manufactured housing factory in Silverton that employs 160 people is closing.Champion Enterprises told the city it would shut down the Redman Housing plant by May 23rd.The company's letter said closing was --quote-- "a business decision driven by significant housing and general economic market factors."The plant has produced single-family houses and multifamily buildings, many of which have gone for military families at Fort Lewis, Washington.The plant has employed as many as 300 people. The town has about 9,000 residents.Pat O'Connor is an economist with the Oregon Employment Department. He says says some Oregon plants have trimmed jobs in response to slow sales -- perhaps a sign that prospective home buyers can't get loans. This can't be good news for the new condo development going up in Silverton.
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