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Largest Net Loss Of Jobs Since End Of Recession In '03
2008-02-26 04:09:00
From OPB:Oregon suffered more job losses than job gains in the second quarter of last year.About 105,000 jobs were lost last spring because of bankruptcies or business slowdowns. During the same time, about 101,000 jobs were gained -- by growth and business start-ups.The loss, however, is the first since the tail end of the last recession in 2003. But state economist, Art Ayre, isn?t worried.Art Ayre: ?I think it is probably is just a blip. If we look at another data series that?s more current it shows continued job growth. But back in the first quarter of 2007, things were very weak and that?s showing up in these numbers.?Ayre says he has only just got access to a new mine of data.The numbers give him insight into the boom period of the mid-90s, the recession of the early 2000s, and Oregon?s recovery from it. The data is a little old but how Art can conclude a recover is around the bend is beyond me.
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Have You Noticed A Shift In The Local Conversation?
2008-02-25 22:58:00
On Saturday I took a walk from Willamette Park to the So What district. Along the way I heard a few comments about the condo market.I overheard a bicyclist telling his riding partner that developers ?think there is endless demand for those condos?. Then while walking around the So What district I overheard a woman exclaim to her husband, 'Wait! They?re building more??, about the Mirabella retirement building.Have you noticed a shift in the local conversation? I sure have.
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Open Thread
2008-02-25 07:02:00
Welcome to the Portland Housing Blog!Don't forget to bookmark the site.Look here for the latest market analysis:Portland RMLS January 2008Vancouver RMLS January 2008
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Mortgage Brokers Dodge Win-Win Scenario
2008-02-19 16:39:00
From the Oregonian:A bill that would put significant new restrictions on the lending practices of the Oregon mortgage industry has stalled, probably permanently, in the Oregon Senate.Senate Bill 1090, championed by Sen. Ben Westlund, D-Tumalo, is stuck in the Ways and Means Committee, without the political support needed to move it to a full Senate vote.The bill's expected demise is a huge victory for the mortgage industry, which turned out en masse at the capital to fight key elements of the legislation. One of the bill's most controversial provisions would require mortgage brokers and lenders to consider their customers' ability to make their monthly payments. Mortgage brokers, saying they didn't want government questioning their underwriting decisions, warned that the bill would drive them out of business .Consider their customers' ability to pay - WinDrive mortgage brokers out of business - WinThe elusive win-win scenario, thus it must not become law.
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Portland Housing Blog Is Number One
2008-02-19 03:10:00
I think this is pretty darn cool?When you Google 'Portland Housing Blog ' I'm number one,and when you Google 'Portland Housing' I'm in the top three or four listings.According to Google over 300 people visit the blog every day.
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Vancouver RMLS Market Report ? January 2008
2008-02-19 00:32:00
The median sale price for January 2008 was $250,000 this is a 3.8% decrease over the median sale price for January 2007.The Vancouver residential real estate market peaked in July 2007 with a median sale price of $269,900. Prices have now fallen 7.3% from that peak.Months of supply (total inventory/monthly sales) jumped to 17.0 months of supply. A balanced market has between 6 and 8 months of supplyThe first graph compares the median and average sale price with the months of supply. Click on any graph for a sharper image.The second graph shows the total supply of homes available for sale. This is simply a calculation of the months closed sales multiplied by the months of supply.The third chart and fourth chart show the new listings and closed sales during the month.The final graph shows how affordable the median priced home is for a family of four. History indicates the ratio is usually between 2.5 and 3.0. Prices would have to fall 23.4% from the current median for the index to rea...
More About: Market , Report , January 2008

Portland Home Affordability Ratio
2008-02-18 07:06:00
I pulled more data this weekend and this is one of the most interesting charts I've put together. This graph shows how affordable a median priced home is for a family of four in the Portland metro area. The historic range is between 2.5 and 3.0, Portland is currently at 4.4.The median home is currently priced at $280,000. The price would have to drop to $191,400 for it to be affordable to a family of four. That would be an $88, 600 or 32% price decline.
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Open Thread
2008-02-17 20:32:00
Welcome to the Portland Housing Blog!Don't forget to bookmark the site.
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Portland RMLS Market Report ? January 2008
2008-02-16 23:07:00
The median sale price for January 2008 was $280,000 this is a 1.8% increase over the median sale price for January 2007.The Portland residential real estate market peaked in August 2007 with a median sale price of $300,000. Prices have now fallen 6.6% from that peak.Months of supply (total inventory/monthly sales) jumped to 12.8 months of supply. A balanced market has between 6 and 8 months of supply.The first graph compares the median and average sale price with the months of supply. Click on any graph for a sharper image. The second graph shows the total supply of homes available for sale. This is simply a calculation of the months closed sales multiplied by the months of supply.The third chart and fourth chart show the new listings and closed sales during the month. The final graph shows how affordable the median priced home is for a family of four. History indicates the ratio is usually between 2.5 and 3.0. Prices would have to fall 31.6% from the current median for the index to...
More About: Market , Report , January 2008

Portland Home Prices Rise In January
2008-02-16 17:40:00
Here is the RMLS summary from Ryan at the ?O?:Portland -area homeowners can still smile about home values -- but sales trends suggest a frown will break out soon.The Regional Multiple Listing Service reported Friday that home values in the Portland region remained on the plus side in January , a rarity in the U.S. housing world. The median home price was $280,000, up 1.8 percent from a year earlier.But there's a hint of distress.The inventory of unsold homes -- a key measure of whether a market has too much supply -- rocketed to nearly 13 months' worth of sales in January.That's up 50 percent from December and the highest since record-keeping began in 1998. The previous high was 10 months in January 2000.(Inventory is the amount of time it would take to sell off all for-sale homes at the rate of sales for a given month.)Brokers say they've already had to talk sellers into starting prices 5 percent to 10 percent lower than they'd like. The expanding inventory could signal that sel...
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Ouch!
2008-02-16 03:59:00
I'm working on the January numbers but take a look at the months of supply. 7 to 8 months is considered a balanced market.
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Dateline: Bend June 2006
2008-02-15 22:30:00
Oregon boasts annual appreciation rate of 19.47% with Bend ?s 37% appreciation rate coming in at number one in the nation.
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Eugene Contractor's Fallout
2008-02-15 16:20:00
From the Register Guard:The sudden closure late last month of Gale Roberts Construction, the general contractor on the Crescent Village project in north Eugene , has left about 20 subcontractors in the lurch, with work performed but unpaid.One metal fabricator has already filed a construction lien for $558,014 against the property owner, Arlie & Co., which is based in Eugene and owned by husband and wife John Musumeci and Suzanne Arlie. That subcontractor and an Arlie official said on Tuesday that they think they?ve reached a resolution.?We have a promise to be paid by a certain date, (which) covers the full amount of the lien,? said Jerry Vicars, president of Fabrication & Mechanical Group Inc.The failure of Roberts Construction, a respected, 60-year-old, family-owned business that has built such Eugene landmarks as City Hall and Autzen Stadium, has tossed a financial mess into Arlie?s lap. The developer of the $53 million housing, retail and office project has been trying t...
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Glut Of CRE Hits Bend
2008-02-15 02:41:00
As if the housing slump wasn't enough of a blow to Bend now commercial real estate takes a hit.From the Bend Bulletin:REDMOND ? A string of new buildings, some empty and others half-filled, line this city?s light-industrial corridor ? a reflection of what happens when a slowing economy collides with too much speculative construction, according to property owners, and real estate and economic development representatives.A downturn in Central Oregon?s housing market has contributed to a weakening in demand for industrial space by companies in businesses related to housing construction, those observers say.The city?s industrial space vacancy rate increased from 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2006 to 17.3 percent at the end of 2007, according to a market summary analysis released this week by Bend-based Compass Commercial Real Estate Services.The city?s industrial sector grew substantially in the last five years with 56 new buildings, 1 million square feet of space, and $100 milli...
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Temporary Layoffs For Central Oregon
2008-02-14 23:14:00
From The Bend Bulletin:The Interfor Pacific sawmill in Gilchrist is sitting idle this week, as it has for most of the year so far.It is scheduled to start up again next week. After that, managers of the mill, whichemploys about 120 people, will decide whether to operate on a week-by-week basis.?It?s just very difficult, tough market conditions, and we are running at a reduced capacity,? he said. ?We are reviewing the market on a weekly basis. ? If it makes sense to run, then we run, we operate. If it doesn?t, we won?t.?When it isn?t processing logs, the mill?s employees are doing maintenance and working in the powerhouse to burn wood waste, which produces steam to keep the facility warm, he said.But in the weeks when it shuts down, anywhere from 50 percent to 80 percent of the employees could be out of a job, he said, adding that those layoffs aren?t permanent.?At this time they?re temporary layoffs, and we?re doing everything we can,? he said. ?It?s just a very, very difficult mark...
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Salem Home Prices Only Go Up
2008-02-14 16:46:00
From the StatesmanJournal:It wasn't long ago that home buyers felt obligated to pounce on the first good deal that came along. Home sales were sizzling and another bidder was certain to make an offer.Today, house "for sale" signs seem to be sprouting like dandelions across the Salem area."You could throw a rock and hit three," said Bob Riggi, a real-estate broker with Windermere/ Pacific West Properties Inc. in Salem. Buyers in the Mid-Willamette Valley have an abundance of choices, and sellers sometimes need to trim their expectations, but Riggi and others in the real estate industry say that's no cause for alarm.The Salem area has avoided the double whammy of sluggish sales combined with falling prices. Demand for housing remains strong enough to maintain prices, averting the downward spiral seen in many other regions.Housing Predictor, a real estate analyst group, forecasts that housing prices in Salem will appreciate 6.5 percent in 2008. Portland, Eugene, Corvallis, Medford an...
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Weyerhaeuser Posts Loss In Q4
2008-02-13 22:34:00
From the Portland Business Journal:Blaming a slumping U.S. housing market, Weyerhaeuser Co. reported a fourth-quarter loss.The Federal Way, Wash.-based timber giant (NYSE: WY) had sales of $3.9 billion, with a loss of $63 million, or 30 cents per share, compared with sales of $4.8 billion, with earnings of $507 million, or $2.12 per share, in the fourth quarter of 2006."The continuing erosion of the U.S. housing market created very unfavorablemarket conditions for our timberlands, wood products and real estate businesses," said Steven Rogel, CEO and chairman, in a statement.He added that he expects difficult market conditions to continue through 2008.
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Save $85,000
2008-02-13 17:20:00
They finally get it.Gift cards,Fridges and Ranges,Free HOA for a year,Principal payments.After playing every card the marketing department had JLS finally gives up and actually cuts the prices of homes.
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Why Wait, Buy Now!!!
2008-02-13 01:34:00
Here is a follow up to the Buy Now Campaign from the Columbian:Wait ing to buy a new house in Clark County? Local builders say now is a good time to do it, and they?re spreading the word with a new ad campaign and event to showcase their products.In April, a tour of more than 30 new homes will wrap up the ?Buy New Buy Now? promotion launched this month via television and radio ads that will reach about 890,000 people a week, according to the Building Industry Association of Clark County. The group is sponsoring the $80,000 campaign, being paid for by nine local home builders, along with Parr Lumber, Riverview Bank and Countrywide Financial.The advertisements urge buyers to consider low mortgage interest rates and reduced new-home prices, said Morall Olson, vice president of the 1,050-member building industry association.?We want to get the word out that it?s a great time to buy,? he said.?Perception of uncertainty?The TV and radio spots also downplay the notion that home values could...
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Important Message Regarding Your Future
2008-02-12 16:05:00
The Clark County Building Industry Association has a very important message for the sheep in Vancouver.BUY NOW!Best Investment You Can Make Consumers who take advantage of this excellent buying climate to purchase a home will find that it is the best investment they ever made. On a national level, home appreciation has historically risen 5-6 percent annually. Five percent may not seem at much at first, but take a look at the numbers. If you bought a $200,000 house and put 10 percent down, that would be an investment of $20,000. At an appreciation rate of five percent annually, a $200,000 home would increase in value $10,000 during the first year. That means you earned $10,000 with an investment of $20,000. Your annual "return on investment" would be a whopping 50 percent.In contrast, putting the same $10,000 in the stock market and registering a similar five percent gain would only yield a $500 return on investment. The big difference in returns is a result of "leveraging," putting ...
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YamYam, This One Is For You
2008-02-12 01:11:00
I'm sure you have an idea how to solve this horrible problem.

Vancouver Home Owners Lost $18,000 In Equity
2008-02-11 21:16:00
From the Columbian:Despite lower mortgage interest rates, Clark County home sales remained soft in January and prices showed continued erosion. According to reports gleaned from the Clark County Courthouse, a total of 312 new and pre-owned homes sold last month with a median price (half for more-half for less) of $245,383. That?s a 7 percent decline from the median price of $263,900 for the 517 homes that sold in January 2007.Sales last month were the lowest for a January since the mid-1990s and were down 39.7 percent from January 2007 when 517 homes sold.
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Eugene Foreclosures Almost Doubled in 2007
2008-02-11 16:11:00
The Realtor?s Guard reported last week that Eugene area foreclosures were up 80% last year. That is fairly high considering it is a great time to buy in Eugene.Foreclosures against Lane County homeowners increased in 2007 at a rate almost seven times higher than those statewide, according to year-end figures released this week by RealtyTrac, which maintains an online database.While the overall rate of foreclosures in the Eugene-Springfield area doesn?t come close to those in some of the nation?s hot spots ? Nevada, California, Florida,Michigan and Ohio top the list ? the dramatic local increase in 2007 has drawn the attention of observers.?I?m not surprised, given what?s been going on in the national housing market,? said Tim Duy, an assistant professor of economics at the University of Oregon and director of the Oregon Economic Forum.?It was unrealistic to expect we weren?t going to be hit by similar trends,? Duy said. ?In Eugene, we didn?t have the hot housing market. Still, the w...

Open Thread
2008-02-11 04:47:00
Welcome to the Portland Housing Blog.Don't forget to bookmark the site!
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How To Extract $80,000 From A House And Still Be The Victim
2008-02-10 20:06:00
Here is a tough story from the Portland Tribune:Knox and his wife purchased the modest three-bedroom home in 1990 for $35,500, in what was one of Portland?s roughest neighborhoods.Now semiretired, Knox traces his financial woes to medical bills from his wife?s quadruple bypass surgery and other treatments.After she died of a heart attack in 1995, Knox filed for bankruptcy. Later, he took a $75,097 ?reverse mortgage? to hold onto the home. Such mortgages can help seniors because they don?t require monthly mortgage payments. Instead, thelender assumes more equity in the home each month, in lieu of collecting payments.In 2004, someone talked Knox into replacing the loan with a new 30-year mortgage, initially costing $886 a month.?He convinced me I should use my equity, so I got into a regular mortgage again,? Knox said, while poring over mounds of loan paperwork at his kitchen table.Turns out, it wasn?t a regular mortgage. It was a typical subprime loan, with ?teaser? payments the firs...
More About: House , Foreclosure , A House , Victim , Extract

Wickes Goes Under
2008-02-09 17:43:00
We all knew Levits was going under but now we learn that Wickes has bit the dust too, due to a slow housing market.Just think we won't hear,'It's a Wickes House' anymore.

Portland Has A New Bubble Blog!!!
2008-02-09 00:00:00
Ian, the Portland Real Estate Outsider, has started his own blog:My goal is still to find as much data as I can, and help paint a true portrait of the Portland real estate market. But I'd like to know what kind or information and analysis YOU would like to see. You can access his page via my blogroll.Oh and please don't rickroll me anymore. One and done folks.
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Portland Placed On Restricted List
2008-02-08 23:50:00
This is pulled out of the open thread. Thanks rubyfan.Has Portland been black listed from MGIC?Here is the letter explaining the new tiers.Here is the black list.Seattle doesn't make the list but Portland does, huh? Maybe that is the surprising part.
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Pollock Tries Again
2008-02-08 21:05:00
From the Oregonian:Home builder Roger Pollock liked his home auction so much, he says he's doing it again.Pollock said Friday that he's planning another auction March 8 in Clackamas County to offload the houses that didn't sell at his last auction, in December."We set out to liquidate our inventory, and we still want to do it," Pollock said.Pollock said he wants to sell 47 homes at the March auction. That includes 15 sales that failed after the last auction.Pollock said his goal is to sell out his inventory so he can clear his bank credit lines. He wants to be in a position to buy when developers -- struggling in the slowdown -- are forced to sell off their lots to pay off debts. Buena Vista grew like gang busters during the last five years; it regularly made an appearance on The Business Journal?s fastest growing companies in Oregon list. In fact it was the fast growing company in 2005 with a 12,900% 2 year growth rate.Growth of this magnitude is fueled by lots of credit. Roger ...

California Holds The Keys For Turnaround
2008-02-08 15:33:00
The MailTribune has an article that dovetails with my prior thesis about California immigration. The article also notes that Southern Oregon home prices are already down 9%.Local housing is continuing its downward slide in prices with a saturated market further influenced by foreclosure sales.Overall, about 2,200 homes are on the market, in the mix with those repossessed properties."That's driving the market right now," said Ron Galbreath, an agent with John L. Scott Real Estate in Medford. "That's where we are getting the most activity from homeowners and investors."The question looming for the Rogue Valley real estate market, however, is whether the influx of new residents that helped propel 20 years of property value appreciation will continue or decline."If the movement here slowed down, there would be an proportionate drop-off in home buying," said Colin Mullane of REMAX Realty group in Ashland. "What you don't know is the proportion of home buyers moving into the area. For ...
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