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Californian's Are On The Move
2008-02-07 23:57:00
We all know migrating California ns are one biggest variables when looking at the Portland real estate market. My theory was that one of two scenarios would occur. Either they would stay in CA because they can?t sell their current home or they would grow tired of the place and move regardless of their real estate market.As the recession picks up steam the spectrum of options available to Californian?s is narrowing. Sixty Minutes ran a story a few weeks back and here is an excerpt relating to homeowner?s tough choice between paying the mortgage and walking away.Matt and Stephanie Valdez say they knew exactly what they were doing when they bought a small two-bedroom for $355,000. They could afford the initial payments and planned to refinance the mortgage before the interest rate jumped to 11 percent. But they couldn't do it because the value of the house had fallen below what they owed on the mortgage. They say they can afford the higher payments, but see no point in making them. "Th...
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18 Northwest Mills Close
2008-02-07 15:35:00
Here is some more bad news about local jobs from the Oregonian:LONGVIEW, Wash. -- A slump in the housing market and low lumber prices have resulted in shutdowns at 18 sawmills in the Pacific Northwest , industry experts say. For the Simpson Timber mill in Longview, the shutdown this week is the second curtailment of production of 2-by-4,s 2-by-6s and other lumber made from Douglas fir in a month. Work hours also were cut for a week starting Jan. 21. Analyst Claudia Shank Hueston of JP Morgan told The Daily News of Longview our other mills around the region also are shut down this week. All told, she said, 18 mills in the region are being shut down for varying periods, including indefinite closures of Hampton Lumber operations in Morton and Willamina, Ore., Seneca in Eugene, Ore., and Rosboro Lumber in Vaughn, Ore.With homebuilding drastically reduced, lumber prices fell to $238 per 1,000 board feet at the start of the month, 15.6 percent lower than a year ago, according to the trade ...
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PERS Catches Falling Knife
2008-02-06 18:31:00
From the Oregonian:Though Oregon lawmakers want to tighten state rules this month to reduce foreclosures, the Oregon Treasury wants to turn a profit off the slumping U.S. housing market.The housing slide is bad news for homeowners in a pinch, but it provides a new opportunity for the state treasury to boost pension fund coffers.That's why the Oregon Investment Council voted last week to sink $600 million in public employee pensions into a Texas private equity firm.Executives at Lone Star Funds say they expect 20 percent or higher returns in the "distressed" markets in the United States and abroad....Child expects Lone Star will buy what it thinks are undervalued mortgage-backed securities, hold them for a while and sell them for a profit. "I don't think they're going to buy individual residential properties for resale," Child said....After a boom, the U.S. housing market is in a free fall. Home values plummeted in many markets. Foreclosures hit historic highs. And the securities ...
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Lumber Prices Lowest Since Early 90's
2008-02-06 01:42:00
From the Realtor's Guard:With no end in sight for the national housing slump, wood products, Lane County?s largest manufacturing sector, is bracing for another difficult year.?Our mills, they?re just trying to batten down the hatches and withstand (the downturn),? said Butch Bernhardt Jr., spokesman for the Western Wood Products Association, which represents 120 mills in 12 western states.He said last year?s string of announcements of curtailments and layoffs will continue in ?08.?And we?ll see some mills close for good,? he predicted. ?Which ones? It?s impossible to say. Given the conditions that we?re anticipating and the trends we?ve seen in pricing so far, for some companies, it will be difficult to be competitive in this type of market.?Lumber prices are at historically low levels, said Jon Anderson, publisher of Random Lengths, a Eugene -based firm that tracks forest products markets in North America.?We haven?t seen these prices (unadjusted for inflation) since the early ?90s...
More About: Early , Prices

Eugene Real Estate Great In '08
2008-02-05 06:59:00
Randi Bjornstad makes me sick with this rah-rah fluff article. The article doesn?t contain one single researched fact, just opinions from the real estate industry.From the Real tor's Guard in Eugene :No one?s predicting a boom in the housing industry this year, but many in the business of buying, selling and financing shelter don?t believe it?s going to be a bust, either.?This will be a good year, but not a great year,? predicts real estate broker Kathie Robidou, who recently opened her own Coldwell Banker office following the retirement of the longtime broker who previously held the franchise. ?Our market has stayed much stronger than what?s happening in many other parts of the country. There are still a lot of people looking to buy and sell. And when that happens, and prices and interest rates are reasonable, things will be all right.?Let?s stop and take a moment to look at the screenshot from the Register Guard?s online article. Notice anything that might impair Randi?s objectivit...
More About: Estate , Real Estate , Great

Real Estate Replaces Lumber In Oregon
2008-02-05 03:42:00
Whoever said this town isn't driven by growth is delusional.Oh and let's consider the rumor mill open for milling...Across the street, the ex-wife of a prominent Portland area builder had recently moved in.
More About: Estate , Real Estate , Oregon , Real , Lumber

If You Think The U.S. Has Bad Inflation
2008-02-04 22:00:00
Then you don't want to read this.
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Million Dollar Marginal Buyers
2008-02-04 07:33:00
Ryan Frank wrote a great article in the Sunday?s Oregonian:The 10,000-square-foot estate home in West Linn comes loaded with Mount Hood views, three wet bars and nanny quarters. It once fetched $3.3 million.The neoclassical Italian-style villa in the West Hills: $1.4 million.The 17th-floor riverfront condo in South Waterfront: $798,170.All were coveted properties during Oregon's housing boom.Today, all fester in foreclosure.Oregon has so far dodged the mass defaults and plunging home values that plague parts of the country. Through September, Oregon had the nation's third-lowest rate of delinquent loans, and the rate remains far below the state's highs from the 2001 and 1980s recessions, according to the most recent figures from the Mortgage Bankers Association.But more recently, real estate brokers who specialize in foreclosed homes say the nation's foreclosure troubles have crept into the Portland area.?Bill Ridge would qualify as a mortgage expert.He owns dozens of rental pro...
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It's An Election Year
2008-02-04 05:52:00
I have no clue why Smith is introducing this, he never has any competition for his position."I want for them a work-out, not a bailout," Smith said. "That gives them dignity and a path to independence." Sen. Smith misses the mark with his goal and this will not lead to independence by any measure. If they get a workout loan they will still have to pay the principal on an over-valued and falling asset. True independence will only come when marginal buyers walk away and save their money. People think at the margin and this overpowers all other factors.
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Buena Vista To Hold Second Auction
2008-02-01 21:48:00
Front Porch is reporting:I just caught a voice mail from Roger Pollock that he left over the weekend. Here's what he said: "We're probably going to have another auction in a month." More to come ...It's really a guessing game as to how successful the previous auction was, I wonder if he's expecting a different result this time or maybe he lowered his expectations.
More About: Auction , Vista , Hold , Buena

Cyan Fails To Be Different
2008-02-01 19:51:00
Another Condo near PSU. I walk past it all the time but I thought it was going to be commercial office space.Here is the Oregonian's story about it:Portland's condo market is ailing, yet developer Mark Edlen just started his seventh condo tower since 2004.Crazy? Gutsy?Depends whom you ask.Edlen sees an untapped market for his 16-story Cyan, where a sales office opened this week.The pitch goes something like this:If you've been priced out of the condo life in the Pearl District, come live in a new downtown building that offers smaller, more affordable condos but the same easy access to the arts, parks, MAX and groceries.The Cyan will be Portland's first large-scale condo tower to lean so heavily on the market for small, European-sized living spaces."We think every city has a challenge," Edlen says. "How do you house people who don't make $150,000 a year?"Most of the condos in the towers that rose in Portland's recent craze went for $400,000 or more, pricey in a region where th...

Condo Owners Get Improper Tax Abatements
2008-02-01 19:30:00
Interesting story in the Portland Tribune today about condo tax abatements.
More About: Condo , Owners

Another Day, Another Foreclosure Auction In Bend
2008-02-01 19:05:00
From the Bulletin:Paul Helikson stepped into the swirling snow on the steps of the Deschutes County Courthouse on a Thursday morning just before Christmas and barked out the legal singsong that brought an all-too-familiar end to a homeowner?s dreams.Another day, another foreclosure auction.As is usually the case, nobody raised a hand to bid on the little north Bend house, where the owner owed the bank more than $12,000 in unpaid mortgage payments. In fact, as is often the case, no potential bidders showed up at all.So the house went back to the lender to join the county?s growing ranks of bank-owned houses for sale.Helikson, a legal process server, works with most of the trustee companies that handle foreclosure operations in Central Oregon for the country?s major lenders, and business has been booming. The frequency of his legally scripted courthouse-steps auctions has gone from one every few days to about 15 a week as the real estate market has worsened, Helikson said. Still, it?s...
More About: Auction , Foreclosure

Clark County Foreclosures Double
2008-01-31 03:14:00
From the Columbian:Foreclosures increased significantly in Clark County in the last three months of 2007, reflecting the increasing problems of overstretched homeowners.The 494 foreclosures filed here in the three months ending in December more than doubled the 208 foreclosures filed in the same period in 2006, according to RealtyTrac, an Irvine, Calif., online publisher of real estate data.The end-of-year surge coincides with an increase in the number of new and pre-owned homes for sale in the county and doesn't surprise those who've been tracking the local market."The wave is finally hitting the beach," said Dick Riley, co-owner of Riley & Marks Inc. appraisal firm in Vancouver and an economic forecaster for The Columbian. 2008 will be even worse.
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A Whole Lot Of Renters
2008-01-31 00:30:00
This was sooooo 2005.

November S&P Case-Shiller Index
2008-01-30 07:32:00
Here is the S&P Case -Shiller Index .The first graph shows the year over year changes for the month of November 2007. The index consists of 20 cities and Portland is one of three currently showing price appreciations. The 10-city composite fell 8.40% while the 20-city composite fell 7.70%.The next graph shows all historical data for the Case-Shiller Index for both Portland and Seattle.The next graph highlights the index changes since the Federal Reserve stopped lowering interest rates in June of 2003. The Portland Index is currently at 183.65, this represents an increase of 1.27% since November 2006. Portland?s index peaked in July of 2007 at 186.51; Portland currently has a decline of 1.53% since the market peak. The last time the index was this low was April of 2007.The final graph shows the year over year percent change since June of 2003.

The World's Greatest Bank
2008-01-30 03:40:00
The world?s greatest bank didn?t make the world?s greatest lending decisions over the last few years. From the Oregonian:Umpqua Bank followed the lead of several other Northwest banks Thursday and reported a big increase in troubled loans.But bank executives voiced confidence they have successfully found ways to minimize the bank's loan losses.Umpqua Holdings Corp., parent of Umpqua Bank, earned $9.6 million, 16 cents a diluted share, in the fourth quarter, a significant decline from the same period last year, when it earned $24.8 million, 42 cents a share.Umpqua's provision for loan losses jumped to $41.7 million, up from $2.6 million 12 months earlier.The bank's total nonperforming assets soared from $9 million a year ago to $98 million at the close of 2007.Umpqua's performance has been hurt by an ill-timed expansion into Northern California, which has been much harder hit than the Northwest by the housing troubles.Umpqua bought three banks in Northern California over the last...
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Is There Anything We Can Do Besides Cut Prices?
2008-01-29 23:17:00
I received this email from Centex Homes:Centex Homes is conducting a study to determine what consumer's are looking for when considering the purchase of a new home. We would greatly appreciate it if you would take a moment to complete a short on-line survey. Your answers will be tabulated with those of other respondents and no one will contact you without your permission. Thanks you in advance for your consideration.Centex Home Consumer Research Department.If you want to tell them what is on your mind here is the link.
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